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Everything posted by crimsone

  1. What's actually causing this rain in Australia? Just took a brief look at the synoptics over the Tasman, and all I see is a relatively innocent looking trough over the NSW.
  2. Genuinely awful, but in some ways an incredible achievement to keep the death toll so low.
  3. That's one scary system. 899 hPa! https://twitter.com/WeatherWatchNZ/status/1339314230655270912 Special mention of the 12m wave heights, of course. This region of the world typically has quite calm seas. Yasa will likely make landfall today. Possibly later this afternoon, or possibly tonight, NZ time, clearing the two main islands by the following morning. Landfall might be a relative term - the center of the eye could yet pass right between the two main islands. The JTWC path has a direct hit on Vanua Levu (the northernmost large island), crossing over its southernmost region. P
  4. Yasa is on the list of the south pacific names - page 20 https://wmoomm.sharepoint.com/:b:/s/wmocpdb/ETLwxbvAV9tMp0igLsaSE-ABrcKpHtUom1djMugRwue9Ew?e=W52WRj Edit 11:38 : - Is it just me that finds South Pacific naming odd? Why does it run backwards?
  5. Looks like after Fiji (seemingly a major landfall for this storm), anything else depends on how this ridge weakens, or doesn't as the case may be. It might dodge left and weaken towards northwestern Australia or run through the Tasman Sea, or it could head straight down south and give NZ's Northland region a bad day. The thing I'm finding interesting with this storm (and crossing my fingers that things don't get too bad for Fiji here), is how finicky the steering of it is.
  6. Ouch! this one's a nasty little sod compared with most down here in the South. Mid level vapour:
  7. This system's cyclogenesis, it must be said, was particularly stunning.
  8. Just off Fiji, a new cyclone was born today. From what little I've so far read, it seems to be expected to hang around in the general area and build to around Cat 3 before heading south with a 40% chance of significantly impacting NZ while undergoing transition to post-tropica some time around Christmasl. On the other hand, there's always the HWRF take on the storm...
  9. And there it is. We have a new record for most named storms in a season. Named storm #29 - Theta. It's actually a sub-tropical storm at the time of posting, and was born out of a frontal system. NHC expect it to go fully tropical in 24h. Will it get to Portugal? Time will tell.
  10. So, yet again, it's a case of "watch out, Portugal!" This has happened too often for comfort in recent years. The world's changing.
  11. Eta has emerged from Central America and is just over the water east of the Belize coast as a TD. NHC seem touch and go on whether it's maintained a LLC however, but for now it's still Eta.
  12. Riffing off your signature since 2004/5, Pete 😉
  13. 😮... 😲 ~Three and a third~ feet!? Bleedin 'eck.
  14. It's only a tropical depression now, with (according to NHC - I haven't looked) no meaningful convection over the center... and it's still over the highlands of Central America. It may emerge as a post-tropical depression. It may yet retain none of its former distinct circulation by the time it re-emerges. It seems clear that something will happen when it gets back into the Caribbean, but whether that something is tropical or sub-tropical, Eta or Theta, ... well, we'll just have to wait and see. (Just looked, and NHC have it as post tropical/remnant low at 36hr. So, erm... yeah. That.)
  15. Random inappropriately timed fact. Hurricane Eta is the 28th named storm of the season, matching the record set for storms which meet naming criteria in 2005. However, 2005 gave us a subtropical storm in the Azores during early October which wasn't classified as a subtropical storm until the post-season analysis, and so it went un-named at the time. Consequently, Hurricane Eta (2020) is the first use of this greek name despite not setting the record for most named storms in the season. Meanwhile, back to reality.... http://weather.com//articles/assets/favicon-96x96.e4
  16. An apparent massive drop in pressure (938mb), but still reporting a closed pinhole eye (8nm). Surface winds seem to have dropped significantly too. Given the 4am est discussion from NHC, I can only guess that it tried to undergo/underwent an EWRC. In any case, given its center just off the coast, the fact that it's apparently a slightly-less-devastating devastating thing is positive, but maybe not as meaningful as to be described as fortuitous.
  17. Terrifying. There's two inches an hour precip under parts of that. Perhaps more. And wind wise, it's a bit like a tornado so big and powerful it's turning the sky. Bit of a nightmare forecasting-wise from here, too. The cone of uncertainty is, well, deeply uncertain.
  18. Recon is getting ready to give it another go...
  19. Mission 5 into ETA was aborted just as it got to the Yucatan. Mission 4 seems to have aborted after just 2 penetrations. I wonder if those mesovortices are the reason... just too damned dangerous, perhaps.
  20. Huh. Apparently my page needed to refresh. I've missed this beauty of a vortex message (925mb, 7nm circular, closed)... That same 0403z vortex message says: Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 135kts (155.4mph)
  21. 6 nautical mile closed eye with a pressure of 928mb. Maximum surface wind inbound from the north was 142.7 MpH (124 kt), but that measurement is marked as suspect data. The did find 125 kt coming out again to the NE of the eye though, and that's not marked as suspect. Rain rate of 2 inches an hour under that area. Interestingly, they found a suspect 130kt out to the south of the eye, and likewise, a suspect 135kt. The data may be questionable, but it's still interesting.... and they're still going. Despite the 10pm (EST) update some 45 mins ago calling it a strong CAT 4, I think I'm a
  22. Live Atlantic Recon Mapped in Cesium - Tropical Atlantic TROPICALATLANTIC.COM View the latest hurricane reconnaissance in the North Atlantic basin mapped in Cesium. Recon is going in. They're currently just past the Yucatan Peninsula, heading into Eta. I actually fancy that the storm might be jogging a little south. This is potentially good and bad. It's a little less populated further south, but on the other hand, it's harder to get to. Not that that'll make a jot of difference to the effect of the rain... but what it would do, owing to the slow forward motion
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