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crimsone last won the day on September 13

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About crimsone

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  1. Hurricane Maria

    This article feels to me, from a scientific perspective, as though it's strung together a bunch of flimsy frequency observations, and declared a trend without recourse to a solid P-value. Indeed, based on the actual science, a recent statement from the NHC said that while they expect increasing SSTs to increase mean hurricane intensity in the years to come, we can't actually say that that's happening just yet. That said... the lack of a solid P-value can be equally attributable to insufficient data, as much as it can be attributed to an incorrect observation. Framed in that context, this article makes for interesting reading, and may be worth bearing in mind...
  2. Hurricane Maria

    Spoke too soon. Subsequent VDM said 957mb, C34 closed.
  3. Hurricane Maria

    125 mph in the NW eyewall, and a drop to 954mb... ... we finally have a little intensification. Only took 24 hours or so!
  4. Hurricane Maria

    Whatever in the hell she's doing with her eye, she definitely isn't intensifying. It's almost as though the conditions are ripe to drive intensification (hence the shrinking eye), but something's simultaneously holding her back in equal measure.
  5. Hurricane Maria

    122mph 10 sec sfc winds in the NW. Awaiting vortex message. The winds being found are supporting intensification, even if the central pressure isn't showing it yet.
  6. Hurricane Maria

    Judging by the vapour loop, it could well be a bit of both... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/html5-wv-long.html Edit: Latest VDM says C38, closed, and 959mb.
  7. Hurricane Maria

    Could it be a rapid and powerful burst of convection to the NW driving around the eye and causing it to bunch up SW?
  8. Hurricane Maria

    Never seen a diamond shaped eye before, I confess! She's, never the less, pulling in that eye quite nicely now, as per this before and after... Edit: Recon have just passed through the middle. Still waiting for the vortex message, but they recorded a 112.8 mph wind in the NW eye. Between that, the earlier info posted by @Iceberg, and the comparative images here, it's probably fair to say that she's up and running again, with intensification getting well underway.
  9. Hurricane Maria

    The eye of Maria had actually reformed almost immediately on leaving the island. What she needed to do was to strengthen that closed eye and clear it out... What she's actually done is formed an outer eyewall at 36 miles, with the inner 16 mile eyewall now open southwest. Instead of clearing her eye, she started a new ERC. Consequently, far from being the Cat 4 we expected, or even the Cat 3 we might have thought... she's now only Category 2. I mentioned earlier that PR really gave her a good bashing, and it would appear that it did indeed do so. Pressure is still hovering at just below 960, but as soon as that ERC makes a little progress, I would expect it to begin dropping again - but unless she forms another pinhole eye (and I don't see why she would), then I wouldn't expect the pressure to exactly bomb. I mean, it might, but I'm not expecting it... she has far too much re-organising to do... though as with ERCs more generally, she's liable to become a wider storm. The image below shows it all really - she's got a massive hole in her, and it isn't the central eye. For every mb she could be dropping, she's leaking out just as much pressure. It'll be, at my best guess, 3 to 4 hours or so minimum before she stands even a chance of making progress in terms of any meaningful re- intensification. In the Dvorak image below you can see that she's just starting to pull around that black band of thicker cloud/colder tops as she repairs her CDO, making it more central and even than, well, entirely lopsided as per the beginning of the loop. Maria has plenty of work to do, but she's getting there. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/15L/15L_floater.html
  10. Hurricane Maria

    The eye is beginning to clear out now.
  11. Hurricane Maria

    She's 958mb now... dropping 2mp in 1.5 hours.
  12. Hurricane Maria

    Also... I fancy that she may be moving a little south of her forecast track, which may translate into her later track moving a little westward.
  13. Hurricane Maria

    DAMN! So, this was recorded just about 75 mins ago. Maria took a genuinely massive battering over PR... albeit not as much of a battering as she gave PR. The eye is there though... she just needs to re-group and clear it out. HDObs are showing a recorded 104mph max 10 sec wind on the way out to the NE of center. That's still a pretty solid wind, but it's about 55mph less than before she made landfall. Just goes to show - making landfall during/just after an ERC is not good for a hurricanes health! It's really great for the population on the ground though!
  14. Hurricane Maria

    "Hey there. We're looking for the eye of a hurricane. We've heard it's in this area somewhere but we can't quite seem to find it. Don't suppose anybody could give us some directions, could they?"
  15. Hurricane Maria

    Recon is re-starting. They are just flying toward Maria now, and are going to have a nose around.