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crimsone

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crimsone last won the day on September 30 2017

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  1. What's actually causing this rain in Australia? Just took a brief look at the synoptics over the Tasman, and all I see is a relatively innocent looking trough over the NSW.
  2. Genuinely awful, but in some ways an incredible achievement to keep the death toll so low.
  3. That's one scary system. 899 hPa! https://twitter.com/WeatherWatchNZ/status/1339314230655270912 Special mention of the 12m wave heights, of course. This region of the world typically has quite calm seas. Yasa will likely make landfall today. Possibly later this afternoon, or possibly tonight, NZ time, clearing the two main islands by the following morning. Landfall might be a relative term - the center of the eye could yet pass right between the two main islands. The JTWC path has a direct hit on Vanua Levu (the northernmost large island), crossing over its southernmost region. P
  4. Yasa is on the list of the south pacific names - page 20 https://wmoomm.sharepoint.com/:b:/s/wmocpdb/ETLwxbvAV9tMp0igLsaSE-ABrcKpHtUom1djMugRwue9Ew?e=W52WRj Edit 11:38 : - Is it just me that finds South Pacific naming odd? Why does it run backwards?
  5. Looks like after Fiji (seemingly a major landfall for this storm), anything else depends on how this ridge weakens, or doesn't as the case may be. It might dodge left and weaken towards northwestern Australia or run through the Tasman Sea, or it could head straight down south and give NZ's Northland region a bad day. The thing I'm finding interesting with this storm (and crossing my fingers that things don't get too bad for Fiji here), is how finicky the steering of it is.
  6. Ouch! this one's a nasty little sod compared with most down here in the South. Mid level vapour:
  7. This system's cyclogenesis, it must be said, was particularly stunning.
  8. Just off Fiji, a new cyclone was born today. From what little I've so far read, it seems to be expected to hang around in the general area and build to around Cat 3 before heading south with a 40% chance of significantly impacting NZ while undergoing transition to post-tropica some time around Christmasl. On the other hand, there's always the HWRF take on the storm...
  9. And there it is. We have a new record for most named storms in a season. Named storm #29 - Theta. It's actually a sub-tropical storm at the time of posting, and was born out of a frontal system. NHC expect it to go fully tropical in 24h. Will it get to Portugal? Time will tell.
  10. So, yet again, it's a case of "watch out, Portugal!" This has happened too often for comfort in recent years. The world's changing.
  11. Eta has emerged from Central America and is just over the water east of the Belize coast as a TD. NHC seem touch and go on whether it's maintained a LLC however, but for now it's still Eta.
  12. Riffing off your signature since 2004/5, Pete 😉
  13. 😮... 😲 ~Three and a third~ feet!? Bleedin 'eck.
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