chris55

Absolutely cracking December chart! Cold air well and truly established across the entire U.K. , PV on holiday on the other side of the globe, nice Griceland wedge and a potential hurricane (not really) prepping to provide the mother of all blizzards to the middle of the U.K. not bad for day 5 of winter in the MOD.

Nobody knows…..:)

Locations - opinions- expectations- expertise that’s the MOD thread at its best

Just look at Northern Canada….the PV is completely missing! That’s very rare. Im thinking the current state of the NH means we don’t have to chase every Op run, as the foundation for better Synoptics isn’t necessarily do or die !

Just one blizzard and I’m happy Couldn’t agree more Crewe. The historic and memorable snow events have come from Synoptics just like that which are being modelled. (For some/many) We are coming into a period of cold that is so pronounced the MOD thread will become IMBY without obvious IMBY posts. We naturally look at our own area when posting our thoughts on the runs. Overall with the NH pattern as it is it’s best for U.K. cold and we just gotta ride the wave

If you want heavy frontal snowfall you need the cold/milder boundary to meet. The moisture is held within the milder air. ECM is perfect as the cold pushes back! Meaning those staying on the right side of the boundary hit the jackpot (and that’s a fair chunk on the 00z

Cotswolds would be getting absolutely hammered with snow! Along with many others!

We all remember the Iberian low dramas at 144+ ……. Look where it ended up, zero mild uppers feeding into the U.K. Just something to keep in mind when looking at the 168-240 charts, especially in this kind of set up.

Is it really cannon fodder? With a synoptic pattern so far from the ‘average’ surely you’d expect plenty of variation beyond the more reliable time frames. Yes, if there is going to be a marked shift in broad scale patterns, ie, zonal flow to a blocked pattern then the day 8 + charts can pick a pattern change, but once we have a -NAO and AO with a major block in place surely we have to accept the models will simply be less reliable in the mid term. An open interpretation is needed more than normal IMO

At 234 it’s anyone’s guess in this set up. However the shortwave exiting the main low could be snow maker for the m4 north …;)

The fact the trough is so slack with little wind, means we can not underestimate surface conditions. At this time of year with little solar input and no mixing we could well be looking at the coldest surface conditions for mainland UK (England and wales especially) that we have seen for many years!! -10s overnight for Benson I would think, if not colder. UKMO 144.

It’s certainly a very deep low, but cut off at this point, with a very southerly track. Cold preference is it disrupts as it moves towards the U.K. and produces a southern U.K. Blizzard, or it stays south and pulls in even more cold (but without frontal incursion) air from the east. Worst case is it spins up to far north introducing milder air from the south. Lots to be decided yet into the mod term

As someone who live in the Cotswolds this is an historic kind of chart. That would be some blizzard ! :0 Quite incredible charts this morning!

Can see GFS 6z was away from the cluster on the 850s plot (short ens LONDON) mild outlier. .

As soon as I saw last nights ecm on wetter last night I thought it prob best to avoid the MOD thread till this morning Glad I did lol. Much better run from ECM this morning, and all models continuing the theme of the cold trough dropping down. Beyond mid week still a lot to be decided on depth of cold, any potential snowfall and longevity of the cold. ideally we want a clean drive of the coldest uppers possible, then a slack trough, followed by a channel low then a cold surface high to set up……… Plenty more ups and downs to come.

The data is the same for us and weather online’. We interpret the data just as they do. I’d be confident we have plenty on here as skilled, if not more so, than the people who write for these weather websites. Stick with the MOD thread for day to day interest, as the bigger picture becomes clearer (and closer) the Metoffice or BBC are safe bets as well

Ensembles for Stroud woohoo lol.

Get em In the shed ready and waiting while they are still available!!

Absolutely Tamara, the daily model runs will ultimately inform us of the eventual outcome. Lots of fun to be had following the events. Hopefully you’ll come along for the ride, that is what makes the MOD such an interesting, informative and addictive place to be. All levels of expertise deciphering all sorts of fluctuations from the models. Absolutely love it

Absolute peach of a chart that! :0

Thankfully we can concentrate on the 18z rather than what the weather in January will be

When the trop PV is split, displaced and half the NH is loaded with high pressure then we all know times are good. Tamara can post as many big words as she likes (and underline odd letters) but @Ali1977 will always post the charts

Fine margins regarding the Iberian low and how much influence it has. UKMO and ECM not to different at 168 broadly speaking, but EC, with the low stronger and further north, drags up the milder 850s vs UKMO which allows the high to ridge into U.K. continuing the feed of colder air. UKMO 168 EC 168 It’ll no doubt change over coming runs.

Iberian low trending south/less intense on 6z GFS and ICON 12z. We stay on the cold side on both.

Big respect Matt, don’t get me wrong I love all these charts. Ensembles for 240-316 are spread (as you’d expect. More cold than mild though) trend is good.