chris55

Sub 520 thicknesses for England and wales with 850s at -6 to -8! Scotland even colder! -12 at 510 :0

0c isotherm right down to the Pyrenees!

Love Juniper, I used to live in Uplands so just a 15 minute walk up the hill, so know it well up and around there. Used to take my German Shepherd on long walks sun rain or snow:) And yes, skies finally cleared late this afternoon, should be a bitterly cold night and a stunning day tomorrow! Proper winter stuff

Went for a walk up Juniper today (about 180meters asl) took the truck up the icy lane and parked at the farm. Absolutely zero melt at this elevation and a winter wonderland three days after the fall, that’s extremely rare, I can only remember the snow staying like this a few times in the last 15 years. I was hoping for some sunshine but the clouds have only just cleared. Cows needed their troughs broken (bad farm practice tbh) they were very thirsty. a few “fence post snowmen/lady’s as well. Overall a beautiful, if not blooming freezing walk.

That’s a brave forecast at day 10! Also is that for the entire U.K. or just your location?

With a NH profile like this it’s understandable the models will be more changeable in the mid term. We are right on the edge of the cold/milder boundary, and with the forcing coming from the north I don’t see the Euro heights as a massive problem as they are not ‘locked in’ so to speak just meandering. If we can get a slight move east of the main trough to our north then cold would win out entirely. Fascinating model watching for sure!

Yea, if we can avoid cluster 1 then the pattern remains decent. Cluster 4 preferred:)

UKMO doesn’t show it mild across the country! There would be heavy snowfall on the northern side of that low. I would predict it would disrupt and fizzle dragging colder air further south with it. If we could get a little more west to east momentum in the southerly lows, into Scandi, then more snow could be in the cards with the southerly tracking nature of the pattern. Long way off yet mind…..

Super EC 168 cold flooding back southwards, Arctic high, Baffin/Greenland high. Xmas slider anyone?…..

It’s because cold air tends to be very dry air, warmer air can hold a lot more moisture. So if the approaching front is weak it’ll essentially lose convective energy as the cold dry air takes all the energy out of the front.

Does look further north than forecast. Might get a dusting

Decent agreement between them at 168 and zero sign of an Atlantic ‘spoiler’ More like Baffin ballon pump

You not seeing any flakes in the wind from this Jay? Looks like some light ppn is possible, although with the dry south east feed sublimation is prob evaporating it before getting down to the surface?

Extreme……..ly light snow here i just went outside for a bit of fresh air and didn’t even notice till I put the outside light on. IMG_9257.MOV

Can we pull off an 80s style “oh the snow will turn to rain, but actually it just stayed as snow…” type situation come Sunday…… With the current set up I wouldn’t discount it. Im not convinced either way at the moment.

UKMO looking very good. Snow showers packing into the north west U.K. and NI. Cold mild boundary pushed south with cold winning the battle, milder air hardly makes any progress at all!

Yea, no thaw at all Stroud. I was snowed off work today so went round to my mums to clear her path car etc, roads were still covered.

There’s a name for that NH profile, I just can’t remember it… where is that guy who used to post a lot gone? The sausage guy Anyway, that’s a good NH pattern for cold potential.

I give you SE wonders a benchmark to beat tonight…. Somewhere will get close I reckon! photo Stroud 90meters elevation.

Stroud got absolutely pasted today! A bit of elevation helped keep the snow crisp all day. At lower levels more slushy. Overall an amazing little event for the area!

Deep in Stroud.

We look to be right in the centre of the “pivot” so to speak, with the low spinning as it travels very slowly east. So although we are right on the western edge the ppn will move back west as it spins!

Looking deep in Stroud I’ve moved over to Eastington, and surprisingly it’s coming down thick and fast here now with very little elevation. A trip out in the 4x4 later I think

Looking great isn’t it Rich! I’m in Eastington as well. Unusual for the lowlands compared to the Stroud!