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chris55

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Posts posted by chris55

  1.  Kasim Awan the main cold push actually made it over the entire country, and into northern France.

    IMG_1563.thumb.png.44dfbfd6ca87eef64ddf8f317b88208c.png

    IMG_1561.thumb.png.c431803e1e4792d96f432707a534084e.png

     

    It was the shortwave that gave Manchester that snow event that squeezed out the approaching Atlantic front southwards and subsequently gave the potential snow event to Northern France instead of the southern half of the U.K.

    No Iberian high that I can see influencing things?

    IMG_1562.thumb.png.b078312e5e502dd18f681b75a1425f77.png

     

    The Iberian high had minimal influence IMO.

    • Like 2
    • Insightful 1
  2. 11 hours ago, AWD said:

    Forecast MAX temperature by 06:00am tomorrow morning;

    IMG_0805.thumb.png.3b0fb691ae0d322ba8710d92bb324064.png

    Assuming this cloud cover clears as forecast through this afternoon, then many of us could have a decent/harsh frost tonight, which will make the landscape at least look somewhat wintery come tomorrow morning.  Going to be a cold one.

    Currently -7 here in Stroud. 🧊 

    Coldest night since Dec 2022.

    Will be interesting to see how cold It gets towards dawn. 
     

     

    • Thanks 1
  3. 5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Marvelous isn’t it ! 

    This place wouldn’t be the same without the mood swings between runs . 

    It would become very  dull if this thread was just emotionless interpretation of the models .

     

    Add in location to that mix (we all view the charts hoping for the best bits to land on our house, obviously) and the thread can become a bit of a mess.

    its much easier viewing 240 ECMs or 384 GFS charts to bring us together…..

    The devil’s in the details as always.
     

    Overall the synoptic pattern is a very good one for January, and a country mile away from a raging jet stream with a Greenland PV. Mr Bartlett is off on holiday somewhere…..

    More runs needed. And it would be nice to see the ECM deliver a good run post 144, if for no other reason than to keep the thread happy. 
     

    but regardless, lots of fun yet to come no doubt 🙂 

    • Like 2
  4. 6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    Ukmo..nice and safe at 168...heights draining away over iberia!cold air in entrenched

    Thats the important bit. UKMO gets the cold air all the way south by day 6.  Once the cold air mass is established, any push from the Atlantic will be more favourable re snow. 
    Or any surface high that want to form will mean frigid air at the surface 

    UKMO 144 850s

    IMG_1479.thumb.gif.d52c5fd4e0d69dde2d77cb39d7b4aea7.gif

    • Like 8
  5. 6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

    The GEM is showing a whole new evolution at day 8/9, and I, for one, like it.

    image.thumb.png.76994696c941d2b2bbbb95a5ee2e2b84.png

    That’s a very good chart!

    Seems like the models are fishing around for all sorts of potential scenarios at the moment! 
     

    Hopefully with the NH profile as it is, the cold has the upper hand….

    • Like 3
  6. 2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    They literally said he was the chief forecaster & that he is in charge of weather warnings, i.e the role of chief forecaster. He also does other stuff too though.

    P.S. There is more than 1 'chief forecaster'.

    Sorry to be pedantic, but the guy clearly says he’s the seasonal awareness guy. Previously a chief forecaster 🙂 

    • Like 2
  7. 42 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    He specifically said that the ensembles are at a lower resolution and the chief forecaster didn’t correct him. now if we were doing that job we wouldn’t say it because we’d know it isn’t true 

    That’s not the chief forecaster. It’s the guy who advises about whether warnings and how to stay warm etc, think he was previously in a different role. 

  8. 3 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

    Wow ECM…..

    6347D3D0-A61C-4A29-8F66-C546E1670E71.jpeg

    One day…….one of these ECM snow charts will actually come off.

    Ive seen a good few modelled over the years with this classic “blizzard” scenario,  where an active low slides in against a cold block, but they never seem to come to fruition. Maybe this year is the year for one to verify 🙏 ❄️ 

    Being in the Cotswolds this is pretty much the best way we can achieve deep snowfall.

    • Like 6
  9. 5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    You are right about all of this.

    I think what is haunting some people as we try and count this down, and this includes me, is the spectre of the scenario that we could have all of this, repeat, all of this, and still lose, end up with diddly squat.  

    It would be quite another level of defeat, compared, say, to a raging polar vortex and strong Atlantic jet stream, or a 3 month Bartlett high.  

    It just doesn’t bear thinking about.


    “a miss is as good as a mile”

    I know what you’re saying. But in all fairness it is just the trends that have been looking positive. 
     

    if you take away a few nice operational’s and all those “individual” GFS ensemble members being posted then maybe the forum wouldn’t feel quite so “defeated.”

    At no point have I seen a tight cluster of ensembles bringing cold Armageddon to the U.K.? 

    When will we learn that UKMO 168 is probably the furthest we should be banking our hopes on…. Instead of taking all these day 7-8-9-10………11-12-13-14  as actual forecasts, and not for what they actually are, scrambled computer data deciphering a infinitely complex atmosphere at more than 200 odd hours in the future.

    im all for the chase, thats the point of the forum, but let’s try not get to defeated if we can help it 🙂

    • Like 5
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  10. 1 minute ago, booferking said:

    Do you follow trends on NWP.

    Is that Twitter acccount? 

     

    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Not sure about the ECM op.

    The cross polar ridge looks great at face value but can be too big for its own good .

    It all looks very flabby to the nw .

    Not impressed . There’s no real oomph to bring the cold south and low heights meeting Atlantic low pressure could easily result in rapid deepening and too much ne momentum against the flabby excuse for blocking .

    The ensemble mean is better thankfully but eventually one of these dodgy ops is going to start gathering more support .

    Sorry if this sounds underwhelming but I’m underwhelmed!

    The NH profile is what matters when you’re searching for a colder pattern at day 5 plus. Ensemble means are helpful, operational runs are fun to comment on, especially when they showing cold nivarna. However as we all know, unless it’s nailed at day 3-4, having the general pattern favourable for potential cold is a good place to be.  

     

     

    • Like 4
  11. 1 hour ago, SussexSnow said:

    P23 has a pretty decent snow event for the South on 15/16 Jan.

    snowy gif.gif

    Just what caught my eye too!

    Please remember individual ensemble members are purposefully initiated with incorrect starting data….

    I do get it that they look great on the screen, 
    but ensemble members are, as the name describes, used to balance the effectiveness of the operational, and should never ever be used in isolation.

    • Like 5
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