chris55

Some meaty showers here in Stroud, big hail. But no thunder and lighting yet.

Wasn’t expecting this. Very slushy but the hills should be good fun.

Ali1977 evaporative cooling could well come into play as well in slack zones.

ECM stalls the low as the airmass cools. Could be a fair bit of snow out of that! Especially on the hills.

TillyS where’s the fun in that lol

Kasim Awan the main cold push actually made it over the entire country, and into northern France. It was the shortwave that gave Manchester that snow event that squeezed out the approaching Atlantic front southwards and subsequently gave the potential snow event to Northern France instead of the southern half of the U.K. No Iberian high that I can see influencing things? The Iberian high had minimal influence IMO.

Paul I think the new system with the update works extremely well! Keeps the thread nice and clean, but with the update we can see the majority of quoted posts really easily.

Certainly trending much colder on the 6z ensembles from GfS. Once again coldest set since the last cold spell. (Gloucestershire)

Coldest set of GFS ensembles in the longer term that I have seen since the last cold spell. (Gloucestershire)

Stunning morning. Down to - 8.5c in the garden. Lucky I covered a few half hardy plants as I think they may have struggled.

Currently -7 here in Stroud. Coldest night since Dec 2022. Will be interesting to see how cold It gets towards dawn.

GFS not all that mild TBH. Cold air close by……

That’s a superb airmass for the Atlantic low to push up against! So many times in the more recent past I’ve seen these Atlantic incursions meander in to less cold air and fail. This looks way more robust in both terms of entrenched cold and synoptic pattern generally, much more akin to those more famous snow events from these type of scenarios. Still a way to go but looking very very interesting middle of next week

I can confirm this Stroud.

Add in location to that mix (we all view the charts hoping for the best bits to land on our house, obviously) and the thread can become a bit of a mess. its much easier viewing 240 ECMs or 384 GFS charts to bring us together….. The devil’s in the details as always. Overall the synoptic pattern is a very good one for January, and a country mile away from a raging jet stream with a Greenland PV. Mr Bartlett is off on holiday somewhere….. More runs needed. And it would be nice to see the ECM deliver a good run post 144, if for no other reason than to keep the thread happy. but regardless, lots of fun yet to come no doubt

Thats the important bit. UKMO gets the cold air all the way south by day 6. Once the cold air mass is established, any push from the Atlantic will be more favourable re snow. Or any surface high that want to form will mean frigid air at the surface UKMO 144 850s

That’s a very good chart! Seems like the models are fishing around for all sorts of potential scenarios at the moment! Hopefully with the NH profile as it is, the cold has the upper hand….

We can’t discount GFS op, however when it gets a “theme” it is worth taking note. Eventual outcome likely to be somewhere between UKMO and GFS ie snowmageddon in the middle

Sorry to be pedantic, but the guy clearly says he’s the seasonal awareness guy. Previously a chief forecaster

That’s not the chief forecaster. It’s the guy who advises about whether warnings and how to stay warm etc, think he was previously in a different role.

One day…….one of these ECM snow charts will actually come off. Ive seen a good few modelled over the years with this classic “blizzard” scenario, where an active low slides in against a cold block, but they never seem to come to fruition. Maybe this year is the year for one to verify Being in the Cotswolds this is pretty much the best way we can achieve deep snowfall.

“a miss is as good as a mile” I know what you’re saying. But in all fairness it is just the trends that have been looking positive. if you take away a few nice operational’s and all those “individual” GFS ensemble members being posted then maybe the forum wouldn’t feel quite so “defeated.” At no point have I seen a tight cluster of ensembles bringing cold Armageddon to the U.K.? When will we learn that UKMO 168 is probably the furthest we should be banking our hopes on…. Instead of taking all these day 7-8-9-10………11-12-13-14 as actual forecasts, and not for what they actually are, scrambled computer data deciphering a infinitely complex atmosphere at more than 200 odd hours in the future. im all for the chase, thats the point of the forum, but let’s try not get to defeated if we can help it

Is that Twitter acccount? The NH profile is what matters when you’re searching for a colder pattern at day 5 plus. Ensemble means are helpful, operational runs are fun to comment on, especially when they showing cold nivarna. However as we all know, unless it’s nailed at day 3-4, having the general pattern favourable for potential cold is a good place to be.

Not very good? Im baffled by some members interpretations of the current synoptic pattern…. Northern hemisphere’s profile is rare as hens teeth in mid winter. Split vortex with the thrust of energy to the eastern side of the globe. Not a Barlette in sight and the Atlantic onslaught non existent. I’ll get my coat….and thermals ready;)

Please remember individual ensemble members are purposefully initiated with incorrect starting data…. I do get it that they look great on the screen, but ensemble members are, as the name describes, used to balance the effectiveness of the operational, and should never ever be used in isolation.