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Everything posted by chris55

  1. Don’t see inland winds this ferocious here very often (especially in August!) Extremely gusty! Just staked my new trees as they were going vertical and pinned down the trampoline! Neighbours new side awning has been ripped apart. Wasn’t expecting it to be quite this windy!
  2. Don’t see inland winds this ferocious here very often. Extremely gusty! Just staked my new trees as they were going vertical and pinned down the trampoline! Neighbours new side awning has been ripped apart. Wasn’t expecting anything like this.
  3. Garden thermometer in shade reading 35c in my garden in Stroud. We seem to be the hottest area! Must be the hottest day for a good few years in Gloucestershire. Now we await the storms....:)
  4. After such a glorious April, what happens after this weeks more unsettled spell has perked my interest in the models a bit lately. As you say both UKMO and ECM cutting off that low to the far south west bringing in a lovely plume of very warm air! GFS not in agreement and GEFS look consistently wet. Let’s hope EC and UKMO have this one right!
  5. Just checked the ensembles and was surprised how cold some of those runs are! Had to have a more detailed look at the thread etc as haven’t been paying close attention to the runs! Not sure how useful these 850s would be regarding snowfall this late in the season though? Hopefully some night frosts and sunny days not a cold cloudy raw easterly!
  6. There is only one thing I dislike more than zonal wet weather in the UK....and that is zonal wet weather that is cold......but not really cold enough for lowland snow, the end result being generally miserable-grey-cold-slushy- depressing and ultimately useless weather. The dreams of crisp mornings - alpine like sunshine- powder blowing in the wind- sledging- walking are put to bed for another year.... It’s now 10 years since December 2010!!!! (How did that go so quickly!) So we must now turn our wintry expectations/hopes to next year, and in the mean time hope for a warm sunny spring and hot thundery summer. We held out all winter watching and hoping but sad to say WIO x
  7. Warning out for some in the region (north) Cotswolds May see a covering if we are lucky:)
  8. Euro 4 highlighting the risk of some snow tonight. It’ll all be down to ppn intensity and organisation if we see any settling. Obviously hills much more prone to accumulations.
  9. This low is going to be what I call a “Chuckle Brother” low......”to me - to you”. Final track/intensity yet to be decided.
  10. That was a great event here! The intensity and longevity of the snow was totally unforecast with initial front only giving a a few cm’s. As you say it was the local events that gave the heavy falls. IIRC it was caused by Slantwise Convection. Slantwise convection - AMS Glossary GLOSSARY.AMETSOC.ORG This area of PPN just kept on reinvigorating in situ, so to speak, without really going anywhere! Will be interesting to see how Thursdays low pans out. Position/intensity will crucial as to where/if any snow falls.
  11. This little runner on Thursday has been mentioned and noted a few time over the last few days on the national weather and in my head lol. GFS showing the potential for some northern edge snow. Cotswolds could see something if the jet manages to engage the system and force it far enough north....One to watch ?
  12. Can the end of the month somehow provide a little southern snowfall..... chances are smaller than slim but could this little runner gain some support and bring some snowfall on its northern edge?
  13. Huge clap of thunder just now in Stroud! Wasn’t expecting that! Unusual for February.
  14. Heavy sleet landing on the windscreen on my drive home around 430-5, couldn’t be bothered to divert up to the common but no doubt it was wet snow up there.
  15. Fascinating run from GFS with the little wedge of high pressure ahead of the trough actually moves anti-clockwise around the trough eventually settling around Iceland!
  16. After the really stormy spell EC trying to build pressure in the gap...... Small chance of a block developing but going by the winter so far chances are slim.
  17. EC with a glimmer of hope at the end. Can we finally break this westerly dominated winter with a decent Scandinavia high.....let’s hope so.
  18. Relentless The TOTAL lack of an easterly flow this winter has been notable.
  19. Do we have some hope left within? .....is a day 10 ECM chart on the 3rd Feb enough to console the hurt of winter 2019-2020.......let’s be positive and say “YES.....YES god dam it is” .....it is enough....we will succeed, we will sledge with our kids - or nephews and nieces - or on own own if we have to - we will take that walk with the dogs battling the Dawn blizzard - we will see those cars and fields snow covered - we will walk to the shop to get the milk and bread - we will get the car stuck on the hill and have to walk the rest of the way - we will watch the news and laugh how everyone in London is useless when there is a dusting ........we will be winter warriors and British ones at that ! (failing that....there is always next year :0)
  20. The fat lady and the towel are ready...... I never throw in one or wait for the other - I’m normally ever the optimist - however this winter has been the worst for cold and snow for many years, and it’s not looking like anything is about to change! Yes we still have February and some of March (so there is still a chance of a wintry spell) but models looking as they have all winter....rubbish!
  21. Don’t you live in the south of France Nick ? Still lovely you care about us so much mind ?
  22. Both ECM and GFS picking up this height rise in the northern Atlantic around day 8 - UKMO also suggesting that progression looking at the 144. A few runs with this idea now so something to watch as the set up comes into closer range. The high looks quite far north so hopefully we can get something cold setting up!
  23. I’m quoting myself lol ECM completely un-interested in the little ridge at 144 HOWEVER....it has a similar idea at 192 leading to a much more favourable set up at 240.....let’s hope something can finally punch through and disrupt the zonal flow and upset the pattern! 192-240
  24. I’m liking UKMO but for a different reason (though it could work in tandem with your thinking) That little ridge building between the low pressure systems to our west is our next shot (albeit slim) of something colder setting up. At 144 there is plenty of time for upgrades/changes. GFS shows a similar ridge and just flattens it but at this range there is at least a ‘pinch’ of potential.
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