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chris55

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  1. Ali1977 evaporative cooling could well come into play as well in slack zones.
  2. ECM stalls the low as the airmass cools. Could be a fair bit of snow out of that! Especially on the hills.
  3. Kasim Awan the main cold push actually made it over the entire country, and into northern France. It was the shortwave that gave Manchester that snow event that squeezed out the approaching Atlantic front southwards and subsequently gave the potential snow event to Northern France instead of the southern half of the U.K. No Iberian high that I can see influencing things? The Iberian high had minimal influence IMO.
  4. Paul I think the new system with the update works extremely well! Keeps the thread nice and clean, but with the update we can see the majority of quoted posts really easily.
  5. Certainly trending much colder on the 6z ensembles from GfS. Once again coldest set since the last cold spell. (Gloucestershire)
  6. Coldest set of GFS ensembles in the longer term that I have seen since the last cold spell. (Gloucestershire)
  7. Stunning morning. Down to - 8.5c in the garden. Lucky I covered a few half hardy plants as I think they may have struggled.
  8. Currently -7 here in Stroud. Coldest night since Dec 2022. Will be interesting to see how cold It gets towards dawn.
  9. That’s a superb airmass for the Atlantic low to push up against! So many times in the more recent past I’ve seen these Atlantic incursions meander in to less cold air and fail. This looks way more robust in both terms of entrenched cold and synoptic pattern generally, much more akin to those more famous snow events from these type of scenarios. Still a way to go but looking very very interesting middle of next week
  10. Add in location to that mix (we all view the charts hoping for the best bits to land on our house, obviously) and the thread can become a bit of a mess. its much easier viewing 240 ECMs or 384 GFS charts to bring us together….. The devil’s in the details as always. Overall the synoptic pattern is a very good one for January, and a country mile away from a raging jet stream with a Greenland PV. Mr Bartlett is off on holiday somewhere….. More runs needed. And it would be nice to see the ECM deliver a good run post 144, if for no other reason than to keep the thread happy. but regardless, lots of fun yet to come no doubt
  11. Thats the important bit. UKMO gets the cold air all the way south by day 6. Once the cold air mass is established, any push from the Atlantic will be more favourable re snow. Or any surface high that want to form will mean frigid air at the surface UKMO 144 850s
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