SNOW-MAN2006
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Posts posted by SNOW-MAN2006
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Looking at the radar these showers in north sea may hit landfall soon and they are moving in a straight line N-S. Could this be a streamer for Sunderland area and produce some snow. That is the question.
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See if anyone can establish why ive posted this chart ...
Regards
SM06
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Lots of snow in jesmond
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I think everyone who had a guess at snow amounts got this one wrong... I think even the metoffice did. Highly dissapointed with far less snow cover than yesterday!! Massive thaw underway!!
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Just saw the biggest snowflake land on my skyline !! It was MAHOOSIVE!!!
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Moderate graupel in Newcastle, Jesmond. More promising than those in the south of the region so far i guess...
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People should be aware the precipitation isn't forecast to arrive in the north east until the early hours of the morning, probably another 8-10 hours away id imagine...
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I dont understand why people are so down beat... We have had a prolonged cold spell, with quite frankly a very decent amount of Snow. People hoping for weeks and weeks of snow quite frankly are living in La-La land and should probably consider a move to Scandinavia. Im very impressed with this cold spell, most people in the region have had a very decent covering of snow for the past week. Tomorrow is looking very good in my eyes... Yes we may see sleet / rain at times, it may be snow but people calling it a non-event are quite frankly delusional.
Just because the Metoffice hasnt issued an amber warning for the entire north east doesn't neccesarily mean impending doom. There is a "BE AWARE" warning out with 5cm expected widely across the region. It could be much worse, we could have a mobile atlantic regime with no snow prospects, atleast we are in with a decent shout of snow, especially during the AM period.
Spare a thought for those in the North West who have had very little snow and the prospects of them seeing any remains very poor for the foreseaable future.
Remember weather warnings are issued where there is a significant risk to affecting the lives of the people inwhich it covers. Obviously in the more densely populated south there is going to be a higher risk to disruption of day to day life, they don't often get snow. Whereas here in the north we are more used to it and deal with it better therefore the impact to life is probably considered less for the same amount of snow in comparison to southern areas.
I for one am optimistic of some surprisingly high falls, i have looked at the NAE precipitation forecasts and compiled this map which i think will reflect snowfall by 6pm tomorrow ...
I for one am excited for tomorrow and expecting we can achieve these totals!
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Snow showers inbound for Tyne and wear... ALOT of them!! Batten down the hatches :~p
SM06
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Hows the radar looking if this snow moving towards darlo at all?
Hows the radar looking if this snow moving towards darlo at all?
Tends to be dying out before it hits you, i wouldnt expect too much in darlo tonight, mind you im not expecting much anywhere really, since there is nothing sustained forecast (for more than an hour or so) and with this wet ground its near impossible for the snow to settle. Some nice beefy showers already starting to form out at sea though!! Who knows we could have a nice covering in the morning, nothing significant im afarid though IMO.
Expect very icy pavements tomorrow!!
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Netweather have a free usable rainfall radar on their site as well, updates every 15 mins!
Or metoffice one... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/observations/#?tab=map&map=Rainfall&fcTime=1358147493&zoom=9&lon=-1.05&lat=55.01 very good for a free one
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The front has now just about stalled and is going to move slightly due south before the winds pull round to the east forcing it back onto the eastern coast.... id expect it to maybe be back in the newcastle area for around 4-430pm .....
The majority of the region can take a look up at the clouds now.... they are currently moving due south now, as opposed to the west-east that was observed early, keep looking for them turning east-west!!
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The metoffice new radar only has us just over half way through the highest intensity here in Newcastle. The projections to seem for the front to head out to sea, by maybe 1pm then head back in just after 3pm. Thats my take on things anyway.
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I think the band could hang on if see further PPN building on the backedge and we have seen that to some extent if albeit the intensity is mainly light.
Flakes are smaler than around 10-15mins ago but the intensity is decent enough and at least we got a light covering, so better than nothing, I think we may have to make the most of it though incase it does clear out into the North Sea.
I think the front will hang around for most of the day, projections by the GFS and UKMO send the front just off the coast before sending it back inland, before dissipating as the low to our south pulls away. Even at 9pm this eve we should still be seeing some snowfall, then its a case of sunshine and snow showers i feel tomorrow!
I think we have to potential to atleast get 5cm out of this. Lets face it, some of us werent even convinced we'd even get snow to begin with, especially after the dissapointment of last nights weather front. So i for one am rather please to see moderate snow falling outside my window in jesmond right now.
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Was hoping for a few of those showers out in the north sea to head our way tonight in the breeze, but they seem to be dying away once they get even so much as within 50 miles of the coast. They've been hovering there for the last few hours.
As for tomorrow & following few days, im keeping my fingers crossed for the tyne and wear area that we can notch up some respectable totals! Its going to take a bit of luck though with this warm sector, temporarily taking the uppers above -5 as it passes through! I wouldnt be suprised to see some rain at some point before a change back to snow, especially as the front seems to linger around the eastern coast!
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Yes I am a retired senior forecaster from the Met O but do not shirk from criticising them when I feel its justified.
Maybe this is why you jumped down my throat at a comment that wasnt even critical...
But I think they said "wintry showers", which is a very different kettle of fish to "snow" - and perfectly likely, surely, even with things not that cold to the east?
EDIT: Ah, John, I see you've beaten me to it!
Wintry showers consists of ... rain, sleet, hail and SNOW
Haven't areas been having a wintry mix in an easterly flow today? So sm2006 look out of the window!!
Yes people have seen a wintry mix, but is it an easterly FLOW direct from russia or a wind from the east... two different things. And i am looking out the window, horrible rain and wind.
Whilst the meto didnt say they expected a FLOW from the east this is what i presummed when commenting on it, however if its an easterly wind then they should say where it is sourced instead. I.E. the north.
I cant believe people have kicked up a fuss over my comment however it wasnt a critic as ive said a million times and more a question of how is it possible at this time of year... and the before the sarcastic commments come flying back it is possible if the air is sourced from the arctic or if we type it in google like john i can bring up some stats or scenarios. But my point was made to make it look unlikely given the current atlantic driven pattern.
anyway fire away with your responses no doubt youll have plenty to say...
SM06
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best you ask the Met O and see what their reason is then
I will come back with my own view on this shortly
I look forward to your view john, but your the one who made the fuss about my post so i dont think i should bother asking the metoffice, if everyone who commented on a model output or a forecast where to ask the GFS/ECM/METO about there forecast they would be inendated with questions. My comment was purely for educational purposes about how an easterly can produce snow at this time of year.
Regards,
SM06
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i have a few of these charts from last year and the temperatures of the atlantic are already much colder than they were this time last year.
An easterly wind would come from the north sea, not the atlantic.
Temperatures in the north sea are above average same too for much of the north atlantic.
forgive this post Snow-Man and admin/mods but it has to be said.
How those with almost no real depth of knowledge about meteorology feel able to make such comments following an output from a world leader in meteorology, all its aspects, whatever many may think regarding their long term forecasting, I find really quite amusing.
Do you think they are not aware of what the temperatures over Europe and Scandinavia are now, or what they will be for the period of the forecast?
Some of you really do amaze me.
John whilst i retain alot of respect for the Metoffice i for one think it is strange that they are willing to predict an easterly in 15 + days time with enough potency to bring snow at this time of year. Europe and Russia is simply not cold enough for this to be plausible at this time of year surely. My comment was merley an observation more than a critism in all fairness. What i find amusing is that this is a Discussion Forum, and my comment was laid down to allow someone to explain how it could become cold enough from an easterly so early in the season, not to be jumped down the neck by trying to get some discussion going about the forecast the metoffice laid down. So john please enlighten us all with how we can possibly get cold enough at this time of year from an easterly to produce snow because us with "no real depth of knowledge about meteorology" would love to see how such circumstances could evolve.
I think he was stating that because Europe isn't looking particularly cold, it's hard to see how Easterly winds will bring wintry showers to Eastern coastal areas like the Metoffice are suggesting? Hes perfectly right IMO and well within his right to voice an opinion.
This was exactly what my comment was meant to portray, it was not an attack on the metoffice, just simply an observation.
Regards,
SNOW-MAN2006
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Interesting... Very interesting... 'stroking chin'
UK Outlook for Wednesday 24 Nov 2010 to Wednesday 8 Dec 2010:
There is a trend for more settled, but colder weather to become established across much of the UK. Rainfall should be mostly below average, especially in the west. Easterly winds could bring wintry showers to some parts, particularly to the east coast. Temperatures are likely to be below average with an increased risk of frost overnight.
Strange considering temps over europe atm are projected nothing particularly low to bring a cold enough easterly at this stage;
Suppose there is plenty of time for these things to change, but easterlies never tend to bring much in the way of cold until January. Best chance of cold is from the north for this time of year, and anything form the east is unlikely to be cold enough for snow.
SNOW-MAN2006
(the above chart is only posted to reference that euro/russia is not particularly cold at present and not to represent possible temperatures in two weeks time)
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Im going for a milder first week then turning much more AVERAGE for the rest of the period with some wintry weather in the last half. 7 for me please!
SM06
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I don't think anyone should waste their time looking at raw CFS charts, but the monthly mean above/below average forecast maps do have some degree of validity, though I still wouldn't have much confidence in them either.
The CFS long range is about as much use as the METO's Long Range Forecasts!
SM06
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the cfs temps chart change mostly. the blocking charts i post are very consistent i have been viewing them for several months each day. note gavin on weather outlook who is quite well known has mentioned these charts are quite good.
the gfs changes more.
if you knew about the cfs chopping and changing please tell me how, as they have very rarely showing any positive anomaies over greenland for winter, apart form february. oct,nov,dec and jan have been extremely consistent.
The CFS charts are avaliable on net weather extra and they are always changing on a day to day basis.
SM06
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Typical...
Legend of a post! I vote this the best post in all netweathers history lol!
SNOW-MAN2006
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Had to double take when i scrolled past!
I know that chart is simply quite amazing, it makes my mouth water! lol!
SM06
Far North Of England - Weather Chat, July 4 and on...
in Regional
Posted
Sleety rain at present on the coast