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SNOW-MAN2006

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  4. SNOW-MAN2006

    July Forecast

    By SNOW-MAN2006,

    Sorry, i have been having BIG internet torubles, But i am past them now and am in the USA! Last night it was 100F at 6:00pm in the evening, i dread to think what it was during the day. As for my July forecast, it was produced before i left and was posted on [url="http://www.freechatandweather.com/page%204.htm"]freechatandweather[/url] but i didnt post it here for some reason! When i get back to the UK, i will be moving into the 21st Century and i will subsribe to NW-Extra! It's like ive entered a new era!

    Any way here it is, a "bit" late, and i will be updating it next week some time. So stay tuned as i havent dissapeared!

    July 2008 Forecast

    Well, my June forecast is going well I believe and I reckon that the final figure (CET) will be close to what I have forecast. July is expected to be another mixed month with times of warmth but higher than average rainfall!

    The GFS is now starting to show the beginnings of July in a reliable time frame. The situation being projected at this stage is for low pressure to assert itself, temporarily, to the west for a few days and high pressure to the east. This will force southerly winds upon the country and giving us the traditional heat wave, that lasts 2 or 3 days. This is always short lived and is concluded with a thundery show-down and I think by the 4th this will be exactly what will happen. This is backed up in the NAO as it turns positive indicating low pressure riding north over Greenland and high pressure building form the south.

    This progression isn’t KEY for hot weather however we may see warmer easterly winds from time to time giving warm conditions.

    The wettest areas this month will be to the north west and driest to the south east as there is going to be a constant battle between high and low pressure. The warm mid-Atlantic means we will see some strong low pressure systems developing, which will provide a strong battle against this high.

    I feel mid-month will see a more low-pressure dominated theme and as a result we will get some thundery activity and SW’ly winds, which are still warm!
    Following trends in the NAO I expect any warm periods to be few and short lived.

    I will update mid-month with more tools available to me then.

    Many Thanks
    SNOW-MAN2006
  5. SNOW-MAN2006
    LONG RANGE OUTLOOK

    Well, First of all i must apologise to my readers for my recent absence. It was unforeseen and unmanageable, but now i am starting to update more frequently as resources gradually become more available to me.

    Now onto the forecast. My last forecast, back in march proved very successfully continuing my excellent forecasting track record. In my absence i have been able to realise just how amazing our weather truly is and how i take the models for granted in knowing what to expect in future days.

    The remainder of June will remain with constant swings in weather, as indicated by the latest NAO forecasting, with variations between periods of positive and negative 4 days segments.

    So for the remainder of this week the NAO will be negative. Signalling high pressure to the north forcing low pressure south giving us unsettled and at times windy weather. As with a change in pressure, there comes a change in wind direction and we will begin to see northerly winds and cooler weather.

    Come mid-month, we will begin to witness high pressure retreat and allowing warmer air from the south to migrate north, but only for a few days before we see a return to the varying NAO and the battle between cooler northern air and warmer southern air, this will lead to thunderstorms at times, more prone i'd say in the north.

    Following mid-month there is little to signal high pressure significantly retreat from the north so i can see it remaining cool and at times unsettled. This theme may well continue into july.

    JUNE CET PREDICTION; 15.0 (+0.9) Above average, in respect of the recent warmth.

    I will update my monthly forecast at the end of June before i jet off for 3 weeks to the USA!

    SNOW-MAN2006
  6. SNOW-MAN2006
    April Forecast 2008
    Well quite an AVERAGE March, I predict a slight above average one, but still a reasonably predicted month. April then, and the charts showing the possibility of something colder in the not so distant future?
    First Week;
    The first day of April looks set to have some rain, especially in the north, becoming heavy at times! This is associated with a low-pressure system crossing the north of the country. High pressure will then climb up from the south leaving a relatively unsettled remainder of the working week. Something of note however for the end of the week as low pressure sits to our north east feeding in some colder northerly winds. This could certainly bring the risk of snow to some northern areas later in the week, but always with snow, it is very hard to predict and Is still a long way off so external factors, such as sea effect etc, aren’t accounted for not to mention the precipitation levels, and confidence remains low on this events however, as always, I will monitor the situation.
    Second Week;
    After a relatively cold or cool first week the weather should really begin to warm up here, but I feel it may remain “cool” and remaining unsettled I feel. Low pressure never too far away and lots of unsettled and cool days as low pressure runs unusually far south of the country pushing in Easterly (still relatively cool) or Southerly Winds (not from a warm source).
    Last 2 Weeks;
    I feel High pressure may re-assert itself in this last half, extending northwards over the country feeding in some moist dry continental air, but always the risk of low pressure nudging it south at times giving some unsettled periods.
    Overall I will punt for a CET of 8.2 in consideration of the cooler first half.
    Many Thanks
    SNOW-MAN2006
  7. SNOW-MAN2006
    Onto my forecast (charts absent);
    Right then, the site and forum are now up and running smoothly and I have finally found time to fit in a "late mid-month" update.
    This weekend has seen some sleet and snow cross the country with over 10cm in places. My previous forecast failed to highlight this but I did acknowledge the fact in my forecast that the future was unpredictable, with very few people forecasting this event.
    Onto the forecast then for March and April 2008;
    The NAO chart (as seen below) current shows that the current colder weather is down to a negative NAO. This means Low pressure is to the south (anticlockwise winds) and high pressure to the north (clockwise winds) winds allowing the flow of air to come from a much colder north. With low pressure anchored to the east we have seen arctic air flood the country giving snow to many.
    As you can see it is likely to remain (forecast to) negative well into the first week of April. This means low pressure will continue to feed in colder air over the UK for the time being, winds may veer westerly however from time to time signalling the introduction of milder and wetter weather.
    My long range forecasts are based on trends and are usually quite successful. Negative phases tend to last for 2 weeks before returning to a positive phase and this 2 week phase is now 3 days in so I expect the first week of April, and the remainder of March to be consumed by this negative phase.
    So a cool and sometimes wintry theme likely for the next week or two, but seeming as it's almost April the weather seems unlikely to be excessively cool. If this was January however I wouldn't be too surprised if temperatures stayed below freezing all day for this wintry period.
    During the first week of April the weather will turn milder as high pressure builds from the south. The strength of the NAO is critical here to weather the High pressure will climb far enough North to give mild dry winds or whether low pressure will be squeezed over us keeping it very wet and windy! I think it will be a slow transition, at first wet and windy before by mid-month it will turn dry and mild with a pleasant spring like week.
    I expect this to remain a similar theme for the April month allowing the final temperatures to be above average.
    So all in all, winter makes a VERY Late appearance before spring comes bleating in towards April to leave a fine and settled spring in place!
    Many Thanks
    SNOWMAN2006

  10. SNOW-MAN2006
    Here is my Forecasts all in one spot for easy viewing from 2007. I must apologise for some of the forecasts being copied over as i had to screenshot my winter forecast as it had far to many seperate images for me to copy efficiently. These forecasts were all produced by myself and is all my own work.
    2007_Archive_of_All_Seasonal_and_Monthly_Forecasts.doc
    Enjoy and all the best for 2008
    SNOW-MAN2006
  11. SNOW-MAN2006

    January Forecast

    By SNOW-MAN2006,

    Im afraid, looking at this mornings un-inspiring charts that January will remain pretty unsettled. Little snow and generally miserable. The charts have been pretty consitant of late and the only cold spell is tommorrow and then i fear it wont be till after mid-month till anything may happen. I am quite dissapointed of late with the weather hence the lack of updates. I am sick of this global warming and just want to see what 10 inches of snow would be like, i think i am going to Immigrate to Canada... or maybe not... CET prediction ; 4 and Percipitation; 100%+
    Many Thanks and enjoy this very breif cold snap... im keeping my fingers crossed for a slight dusting in the morning but knowing my luck it will be raining ... and btw it was snowing heavily but not settling!
    SM06
  12. SNOW-MAN2006
    Be afraid be very afraid....
    At the last iceage The north atlantic drift stalled as a vast amount of fresh water (which is less dense than salty water) was forced into the North Atlantic Ocean. What warms the N.Hemispehre in summer is this current, as warm water rides it travels north encouraging warmth but there is evidence that this is now slowing down. The warmer air being pulled north will stop and with no warm air heading north cold air will track south cooling the entire globe in less than 100 years. The N.hemisphere will be impacted immediately before the s.hemisphere will be impacted later. This isnt a question of how but when? With the ice cas melting at such a rate vast amounts of fresh water will enter the atlantic ocean causing cooling much like the last iceage... GLOBALLY! There is no stop to this now. The current is slowing and the warm waters are continuing to travel north but at a much slower rate as the warmer fresher ocean are warming but the colder water is refusing the fall to create the current... The signs of the next iceage will be when the ocean cool signifantly and the average temperature could fall by 6 degrees.... The extinction of the human race? Only the next 100 years will tell.
    Global Warming is real but it will lead us into the next iceage.... bear this in mind next time you drive to the shop because it is now a waiting game.. our only hope is for us to slow down the rate inwhich it happens but we need global uniting of reduction in carbonm emmisions which are warming us and melting the Ice preparing us for the next ice age!
    SM06!
    Latest update to my theory ****AMUST SEE*****
    My_Theory.ppt
  13. SNOW-MAN2006
    This new topic is here for learning oppurtunity's. I have incorprated old model analysis' and my learning topic discussion thread.
    Precipitation.ppt
    Technical_Model_Analysis.ppt
    The_creation_of_planet_earth.ppt
    Wind_Speeds_and_There_Directions.ppt
    Weather_Systems.ppt
    Types_of_Rainfall.ppt
    SSTA_s.ppt
    Snow.ppt
    Ocean_Currents.ppt
    North_Atlantic_Oscillation.ppt
    Ensembles.ppt
    ***NEW***
    How_the_jet_stream_affects_the_worlds_weather_.ppt

    SNOW-MAN2006
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