Roger J Smith

From the earlier table, this is top 20 for CET values 1-20 Feb, with final ranks shown (from official table down to 6.8 C). Rank __ YEAR ___ CET (1-20) __ (1-28 or 29) *leap year 29d _ 01 ___ 1869 ____ 8.25 _______ 7.49 (2) _ 02 ___ 1779 ____ 7.99 _______ 7.87 (1) _ 03 ___ 1946 ____ 7.54 _______ 5.91 _ 04 ___ 1867 ____ 7.40 _______ 6.89 (13) _ 05 ___ 1914 ____ 7.39 _______ 6.82 (16) _ 06 ___ 2002 ____ 7.35 _______ 6.97 (8) _ 07 ___ 1961 ____ 7.31 _______ 6.90 (11) _ 08 ___ 1877 ____ 7.27 _______ 6.20 _ 09 ___ 1998 ____ 7.21 _______ 7.23 (4) _ 10 ___ 1903 ____ 7.15 _______ 7.11 (7) _ 11 ___ 2022 ____ 7.07 _______ 6.95 (9) _ 12 ___ 2004 ____ 7.06 _______ 5.40* _ 13 ___ 1945 ____ 7.05 _______ 7.10 (6) _ 14 ___ 1990 ____ 6.94 _______ 7.33 (3) _ 15 ___ 1995 ____ 6.88 _______ 6.49 _ 16 ___ 1872 ____ 6.76 _______ 6.89 * (12) _t17 ___ 1794 ____ 6.70 _______ 7.16 (5) _t17 ___ 1989 ____ 6.70 _______ 5.96 _ 18 ___ 1850 ____ 6.64 _______ 6.39 _ 19 ___ 1822 ____ 6.61 _______ 6.34 _t20 ___ 1920 ____ 6.54 _______ 5.99 * _t20 ___ 2020 ____ 6.54 _______ 6.44 * 2019 was 5.84 6.89 (10) 1926 was 6.41 6.85 (14) 1739 was (no daily data) 6.8 (15)

No new CET records, closest on 17th was within 0.4 for high min as 2023 held on to 8.4 C. That in turn had broken 8.1 C (1911). Yesterday's mean was 10.7, record 11.3 (1878 tied 2021). The max of 13.4 well short of 1878's 14.9 C. Values on 16th were not as close. 2024 is about to pass 1869 currently holding first place (CET was 8.9 for 1-17). 2024 now tied second (in one decimal) with 1779 and 1914 at 8.4 C.

Two forecasts were actually above 8 in the table of entries, and could finish 1-2 if the outcome was 8.2 or higher. Syed2878 said 8.1 which looks quite good now, and Shillitocettwo went for 9.0 and mentioned extreme warmth later in Feb, also a number of forecasts above 7 C which considering the charts we had before us in late January showed a skepticism about the intensity or duration of any cold weather.

So in terms of setting new monthly record daily means, we have seen eight fall since 2005: JAN _ 1st, 2022 FEB _ 15th, 2024 MAR _ 30th, 2017 JUN _ 19th, 2005 (this was due to v2.0 adjustments, 1947 lost out but only in 2022 with v2.0) JUL _ 25th, 2019 and again 19th, 2022 AUG _ 12th, 2020 SEP _ 7th, 2023 DEC _ 19th, 2015 (previous record was set in 2004) ______________________ The holdouts are Apr 29, 1775, May 29, 1780, Oct 1, 1985, and Nov 5, 1938. (The April record has the largest separation from more recent highs; Nov closest approach was within 0.5 in 1996; but May and Oct have both seen readings 0.1 below the records in 1944 and 2011.)

Preliminary EWP scoring report (note: missed mo. error is consensus + 5 in italics _ it is 86.0 mm for Feb ... in contest year, a maximum of five missed mo's are acceptable before ranking discontinued) Updated scoring for EWP DEC 2023 - FEB 2024 __ Annual and Winter Seasonal _ based on 156 mm _ Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Feb _TOTAL ___ Jan _Dec __ Avg now_(Jan)_fcst (rank) _ FORECASTER ___________EWP scoring (pts) __ error__ avg 3mo (Ranks, now and (after Jan) _01 _ 02 ___ 82.0 (19) __ noname_weather _____ 6.76__ 24.41 ______ 74.0 __ 37.83 mm _t3 _ (1) _02 _ 05 ___ 85.0 (15) __ Jeff C ( 8 ) ______________ 7.48 __ 23.39 ______ 71.0 __ 43.17 mm _ 8_ (9) _03 _ 13 ___122.0 (04) __ summer18 ____________9.46 __ 23.22 ______34.0 __ 37.37 mm_ 2 _ (18.) _04 _ 01 ___ 75.0 (31) __ J 10 ____________________ 4.84__ 22.63 ______ 81.0 __ 41.70 mm _ 6 _ (3) _05 _ 10 ___ 88.0 (13) __ Weather26 ____________ 7.84 __ 22.13 ______ 68.0 __ 48.50 mm_ 16 _ (17) _06 _ 07 ___ 82.0 (20) __ godber 1 _______________ 6.66 __ 22.00 ______ 74.0 __ 41.50 mm _ 5 _ (4) (6.6) _(4.7)_ 75.0 (28) ____1994-2023 average ___ 5.14 __ 21.33 ______ 73.0 __ 46.13 mm _12.2_(8.9) _07 _ 22 ___130.0 (02)__ Frigid ___________________9.82 __ 20.93 _______26.0 __ 31.50 mm_ 1_ (t10) _08 _ 03 ___ 70.0 (35) __ Don ____________________ 3.83 __ 20.92 ______ 86.0 __ 42.17 mm _ 7 _(2) _09 _ 06 ___ 78.0 (27) __ Feb1991blizzard _______ 5.32 __ 20.86 ______ 78.0 __ 43.50 mm _ 9_ (6) _10 _ 09 ___ 80.0 (24) __ DR(S)NO ( 43 ) __________6.10 __ 20.78 ______ 76.0 __ 48.17 mm _ 15 _ (t10) _11 _ 19 ___ 94.0 (08) __ February1978 __________8.74 __ 20.67 ______ 62.0 __ 45.17 mm_ 11 _ (14) (11.4)( 5.4) __72.4 (33.4) __1991-2020 average __4.31 __ 20.09 ______ 83.6 __ 48.10 mm_ 14.9 _ (19.1) _12 _ 04 ___ 60.0 (40) __ WYorksWeather _______ 2.92 __ 19.58 ______ 96.0 __ 49.57 mm _ 17 _ (7) _13 _ 08 ___ 73.0 (32) __ snowray _______________ 4.42 __ 19.54 ______ 83.0 __ 46.00 mm _ 12 _ (8.) _14 _ 28 ___105.0 (06) __Metwatch ______________9.10 __ 19.14 ______ 51.0 __ 46.83 mm_ 13_ (29) _15 _ 26 ___ 92.0 (10) __ chilly milly ______________ 8.46 __ 18.85 ______ 64.0 __ 47.50 mm_ 14_ (19) _16 _ 32 ___166.0 (01) __ stewfox _______________10.00 __ 18.79 ______10.0 __ 37.83 mm_ t3 _ (t43) _17 _ 25 ___ 91.0 (12) __ Emmett Garland ________8.02 __ 18.49 ______ 65.0 __ 52.83 mm_ 23 _ (t33) _18 _ 20 ___ 83.0 (18) __ jonboy __________________6.94 __ 18.22 ______ 73.0 __ 55.03 mm_ t26 _ (31) (18.6)( 8.7)__ 66.5 (37) ___1981-2010 average ___3.48 __ 18.34 ______ 89.5 __ 52.53 mm _22.8_ (9.9) _19 _ 30 ___ 92.0 (09)__I remember Atlantic252 _ 8.56 __18.12 ______ 64.0 __ 50.37 mm_ 18_ (27) _20 _ 12 ___ 65.0 (38) __ methuselah ____________ 3.29 __ 17.47 ______ 91.0 __ 55.67 mm _ 28 _ (16) _21 _ 24 ___ 80.0 (21) __ dancerwithwings ________6.40 __ 17.16 ______ 76.0 __ 59.83 mm_ 37 _ (t43) (21.9)(22.4) _75.0 (28) ____ Consensus___________ 5.14 __ 16.22 ______ 81.0 __ 56.83 mm_31.5_(29) _22 _ 18 ___ 72.0 (34) __ Reef ____________________ 4.05 __ 16.37 ______ 84.0 __ 55.70 mm_ 29 _ (22) _23 _ 37 ___ 92.0 (11) __Mr Maunder ____________ 8.36 __ 16.17 ______ 64.0 __ 58.17 mm_ 34 _ (t50) _24 _ 11 ___ 52.0 (48) __ virtualsphere ___________ 1.48 __ 15.72 ______104.0 __ 51.70 mm _ 22 _ (5) _25 _ 34 ___ 84.0 (17) __ Polar Gael ______________ 7.12 __ 15.32 ______ 72.0 __ 57.23 mm _ 32 _ (39) (25.9)(19.9)_ 65.5 (37.7)__average of all data ____ 3.34 __ 14.63 ______ 90.5 __ 59.43 mm_ 35.8 _ (27.8) _26 _ 49 ___100.8 (06) __ KirkcaldyWeather ______8.92 ___14.22 ______55.2 __ 51.37 mm _19 _ (38) _27 _ 16 ___ 50.0 (50) __ The PIT _________________ 1.12 __ 14.05 ______106.0 __ 56.50 mm_t30 _ (t23) _28 _ 21 ___ 59.0 (44) ___ summer blizzard ______ 2.28 __ 13,46 ______ 97.0 __ 63.50 mm_ 51 _ (t33) _29 _ 35 ___ 79.0 (26) __ ScottD __________________ 5.50 __ 13.42 ______ 77.0 __ 54.37 mm _ 25_ (25) _30 _ 14 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ Let It Snow! _______________ --- __ 13.18 ______ (86.0)__ 51.50 mm_ t20_ (t10) _31_ 15 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ moorlander _______________ --- __ 13.13 ______(86.0)___ 53.50 mm_ 24 _ (15) _32 _ 29 ___ 60.0 (41) __ Mulzy (L1-13) ____________2.82 __ 12.84 ______96.0 __ 62.83 mm_ t47 _ (32) _33 _ 59 ___125.8 (03)__ Roger J Smith ___________ 9.64 __ 12.62 ______30.2 __ 55.90 mm_ 29 _ (63) _34 _ 39 ___ 75.0 (30) __ davehsug _______________ 4.94 __ 12.30 ______ 81.0 __ 62.17 mm_ 44 _ (t47) _35 _ 52 ___ 86.0 (14) __ SteveB __________________ 7.66 __ 12.18 ______ 70.0 __ 66.17 mm_ 58 _ (t58.) _36 _ 17 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover _____ --- __ 12.30 ______(86.0)__ 51.50 mm_t20_ (t10) _37_ 36 ___ 73.0 (33) __ Midlands Ice Age _________4.32 __ 12.23 ______ 83.0 __ 61.17 mm_ 42_(40) _38 _ 27 ___ 51.0 (49) __ rwtwm ___________________1.30 __ 11.56 ______105.0 __ 63.83 mm_ 52 _ (26) _39 _ 57 __ 85.0 (16) __ Somerset girl _____________ 7.40 __ 11.18 ______ 71.0 __ 66.50 mm_ 59 _ (t58.) _40 _ 23 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ Addicks Fan 1981 __________ --- __ 11.03 ______(86.0) __ 55.03 mm _t26_ (20) _41 _ 41 ___ 65.0 (39) __ daniel* ___________________ 3.29 ___ 9.82 ______ 91.0 __ 68.17 mm_ 60 _ (53) _42 _ 42 ___ 66.5 (37) __summer8906 ______________3.48 ___ 9.88 ______ 89.5 __ 60.17 mm_ 38 _ (30) _43 _ 38 ___ 56.0 (45) __ seaside60 ________________ 2.02 ___ 9.63 ______100.0 __ 65.50 mm _t54 _ (37) _44 _ 56 __ 80.0 (25) __ weatherforducks __________5.70 ___ 9.56 ______ 76.0 __ 60.50 mm_ 39 _ (t47) _45 _(---) __121.0 (05) __ SLEETY ___________________ 9.28 ___ 9.28 _______35.0 __ 44.83 mm_ 10_ (---) _46 _ 31 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ________________________ --- ___ 9.14 _____ (86.0) __ 55.50 mm _ 28 _ (21) _47 _ 55 ___ 75.0 (29) __ Stationary Front ( 51 ) _____5.04 ___ 8.95 ______ 81.0 __ 70.50 mm_ 61 _ (60) _48 _ 45 ___ 59.6 (42) __ Bobd29 ____________________2.56 ___ 8.36 ______ 96.4 __ 70.97 mm _65 _ (31) _49 _ 33 ___ --- --- (---) __ John88b ____________________ --- ___ 8.29 ______(86.0) __ 63.17 mm_ t49 _ (t43) _50 _ 63 ___ 80.0 (23) __ Leo97t _____________________6.20 ___ 7.81 ______ 76.0 __ 74.83 mm_ 67 _ (65) _51 _ 40 ___ --- --- (--- __ jmp223 ______________________ --- ___ 7.08 ______(86.0)__ 57.83 mm _ 33 _ (28 ) _52 _(---) __ 80.0 (22) __ Matt Stoke ________________ 6.30 ___ 6.30 ______ 76.0 __ 58.50 mm_ 35 _ (---) _53 _ 43 ___ 40.0 (56) __ summer shower ___________0.00 ___ 6.25 ______116.0 __ 79.77 mm_ 70 _ (57) _54 _ 44 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) __________ -- -- ___ 6.18 ______(86.0) __ 56.50 mm _ t30_ (t23) _55 _ 64 ___ 75.0 (28) __ Shaunado _________________ 5.14 ___ 5.64 ______ 81.0 __ 70.40 mm_ 64 _ (61) _56 _ 46 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ______________ -- -- ___ 5.60 ______(86.0) __60.70 mm_ 41 _ (36) _57 _ 50 ___ 45.0 (53) __ Weather Observer ________ 0.58 ___ 5.58 ______111.0 __ 77.50 mm _ 69 _ (55) _58 _ 47 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ______________ -- -- ___ 5.56 ______(86.0) __ 60.50 mm _ 40 _ (35) _59 _ 48 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _________________ -- -- ___ 5.45 ______(86.0) __ 68.17 mm _ 62 _ (56) _60 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ______________ -- -- ___ 4.88 ______(86.0) __ 62.37 mm_ 45_(41) _61 _ 53 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ______________ -- -- ___ 4.34 ______(86.0) __ 63.17 mm_t49_(t43) _62 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 ____________________ -- -- ___ 3.99 ______(86.0) __ 62.50 mm_ 46_(42) _63 _(---) __ 67.0 (36) __ snowblind _________________ 3.67 ___ 3.67 ______ 89.0 __ 62.83 mm_t47 _ (---) _64 _ 61 __ 49.0 (51) __shillitocettwo _______________0.94 ___ 3.34 ______107.0 __ 84.03 mm _71 _ (64) _65 _ 58 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow _________ -- -- ___ 3.30 ______(86.0) __ 64.83 mm_ 53 _ (49) _66 _ 60 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man _______________ -- -- ___ 2.90 ______(86.0) __ 65.50 mm_t54_ (t50) t67 _ 62 __ --- --- (--) ___gazse9 ( -- ) _________________ -- -- ___ 2.28 ______(86.0) __ 65.50 mm_t54_ (t50) t67 _(---) __ 59.0 (43) __ catbrainz __________________ 2.28 ___ 2.28 ______ 97.0 __ 65.50 mm_t54_ (---) _69 _ 65 __ 55.0 (47) __ Norrance __________________ 1.74 ___ 2.04 ______101.0 __ 77.17 mm_ 68 _ (62) _70 _ 67 __ 55.0 (46) __ Neil N ______________________1.84 ___ 1.84 ______101.0 __ 87.50 mm_ 72 _ (66) _71 _(---) __ 48.3 (52) __ baddie _____________________ 0.76 ___ 0.76 ______107.7 __ 69.07 mm_ 63_ (---) _72 _ 66 __ 40.0 (55) __ syed2878 ___________________0.30 ___ 0.49 ______116.0 __ 94.83 mm_ 73 _ (67) _73 _(---) __ 40.0 (54) __ Wade ______________________ 0.40 ___ 0.40 ______ 116.0 __ 87.83 mm_ 66 _ (---) note: Ranks for normals and consensus are in decimal form, indicating where they are located relative to integer ranks of contest entrants.

Yesterday also set daily max (16.3) and min (11.1) records. Daily max compares to 16.4 on 13 Feb 1998, and was lower than several from later portion of Feb 2019. It was also an all-time min, previously 10.8 on 4 Feb 2004. Top ten (eleven due to ties) Feb daily means (all were daily records) before yesterday were: 1. 12.8 __ 4 Feb 2004 2. 12.2 __ 3 Feb 2004 3. 12.1 __12 Feb 1899 4. 12.0 __29 Feb 1960 5. 11.9 __12 Feb 1998 t6. 11.8 __18 Feb 1945 t6. 11.8 __ 5 Feb 2004 t6. 11.8 __23 Feb 2012 t9. 11.5 __23 Feb 1998* t9. 11.5 __27 Feb 1828 t9. 11.5 __24 Feb 2021 _______________________________________ I checked data base to see if any warm days were hidden (in top 20) on same dates as these ten records. Two were behind 23 Feb 2012 (1846, 1998) and one was behind 24 Feb 2021 (1846), otherwise no second warmest values on these ten days would have been in top 20, and 11 to 22 are as follows, second warmest (11.3) for 28 Feb was also included, and also two days tied records on 12 and 16 Feb are included, so top 22 includes record(s) for only 16 different dates (and also 16 different years): t12. 11.4 __ 9 Feb 1831 t12. 11.4 __24 Feb 1846* t12. 11.4 __ 9 Feb 1903 t12. 11.4 __ 11 Feb 1939 t12. 11.4 __ 28 Feb 1959 t17. 11.3 __ 23 Feb 1846* t17. 11.3 __ 12 Feb 1878 t17. 11.3 __ 28 Feb 1960* t17. 11.3 __ 20 Feb 1990 t17. 11.3 __ 12 Feb 1998 t17. 11.3 __ 21 Feb 2019 t17. 11.3 __ 17 Feb 2023 * not daily record

In the analysis of warmest 31-day intervals for 366 days of year, this is a count of how many days each year took down (first entry, not counting one-dec ties) ... intervals ending 1-30 Jan overlapping two years are given to year with 16 or more of the days. This takes 14 entries ending 1-14 Jan 2016 and places them with 2015, and one entry for 15 Jan 1975 goes back to 1974. List is in chronological order. Values in brackets are adjustments for ties in one dec. 1779 _ 11 1796 _ 3.5 (2.33) 1803 _ 0 (1.5) 1822 _ 4 (4.33) 1828 _ 3 (2.5) 1833 _ 22 (21.83) 1834 _ 0.5 (0.33) 1846 _20 (19.83) 1869 _ 4 1872 _ 1 1893 _ 6 1903 _ 1 (0.5) 1915 _ 0 ( + part of 11) 1916 _12 (12.5) 1921 _ 2 1945 _ 7 (6.0) 1947 _ 6 (7.0) 1949 _12.5 (11.83) 1957 _15 (15.0) 1961 _ 1 (1.08) 1974 _ 1 (1.5) ( + part of 5 (5.5)) 1975 _ 5 1976 _23 (23.5) 1990 _ 9 (8.0) 1992 _ 1 (0.33) 1994 _23 1995 _27 (26.5) 1997 _ 5 1998 _ 1 (1.25) 2001 _ 6 2002 _15 2005 _10 2006 _12 (13.83) 2007 _ 0 (1.08) 2011 _24 (24.0) 2015 _24 (23.0) 2016 _ 1.5 (0.83) ( + part of 14 (13.5)) 2017 _ 4 (3.5) 2019 _ 5 (4.08) 2022 _20 (21.0) 2023 _ 19 (18.17) (If no adjusted value, no ties ... if adjusted value is equal to two-dec total, probably based on equal shares gained and taken away) BY INTERVALS of 31 YRS 1772-1802 _ 14.5 1803-1833 _ 29 1834-1864 _ 20.5 1865-1895 _ 11 1896-1926 _ 15 1927-1957 _ 40.5 1958-1988 _ 30 1989-2019_ 167.5 2020-2023 already 39 (on a pace to take a lot of the above away)

EWP update, on 70 mm (approx) and looks set to add 45-50 mm to end of Feb, for a total of 115-120. CET estimate on 12z GFS guidance is very close to a record 8.0 C. It will certainly be above 8 a week from now, possibly close to 9.0 by 22nd. Last seven days of Feb appear likely to average about 4 or 5, at 4.5 outcome from 9.0 is between 7.9 and 8.0; it would be odd if leap year day ended up denying a record. Also usual caveat about cold GFS guidance in week two (past performance not encouraging).

Following is a list of all 366 "record warm months" if the familiar calendar is not considered to be the only criterion. To read this chart, each entry is the year for which the 31-day interval ending on that date recorded the warmest 31-day average. I still use the familiar calendar to compile the list. As one example of how to read it, t e warmest 31-day "month" ending 24 Feb was in 1869. It would have begun on 25 January. * An asterisk accompanies 29 Feb which could only occur in leap years; if we look at all cases ending 29 February (LYD) or 1 March in non-leap years only, then 1779 takes that one (at 7.9). * For all but the last entry in January, some of the days are in the previous Dec (so also in previous calendar year). The number of days in Dec is (31-n) where n is the date; so for example, for month ending 14 Jan (1975), 17 days are in the previous Dec (1974, Dec 15-31). One minor deviation is that by considering only 31-day intervals, the four 30-day months (Apr, Jun, Sep, Nov) will not precisely reflect calendar month results but all four do involve records that match the calendar month year. Note: table edited 21-26 Feb 2024 date __ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _APR _ MAY _ JUN _JUL _ AUG _ SEP _OCT _ NOV _ DEC _01 __ 2016 _1916_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_2006_1997_2023_2001_1994 ________9.5 __ 7.4 __ 7.9 __ 9.3 _11.9 _15.3 _18.1 _ 19.7 _18.9 _17.0 _13.1 _ 9.8 _02 __ 2016 _1796_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_2006_1997_2023_2005_1994 ________9.3 __ 7.3 __ 7.9 __ 9.3 _11.9_15.5 _18.1 _ 19.6 _18.9 _16.9 _13.1 __ 9.8 _03 __ 2016 _1796_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_2006_1997_2023_2005_1994 ________9.2 __ 7.2^__ 7.8 __ 9.4 _11.7 _15.4 _18.1 _ 19.6 _18.9 _16.8 _13.3 __ 9.8 _04 __ 2016 _1796_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_1995_1997_2023_2005_1994 _________9.1 __ 7.2^__ 7.9 __ 9.6 _11.7 _15.4 _18.2^_19.6 _18.9 _16.6 _13.2 __ 9.8 _05 __2016 _1796,1834_1779_1957_2011_1833_1976_1995_1997_2023_2005_1994 _________9.1 __ 7.1^ __ 8.1 __ 9.9 _11.9 _15.3^_18.5 _19.6 _18.8 _16.5 _13.1 __ 9.6 _06 __2016_ 1990_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994 _________8.9 __ 7.1 __ 8.2 __ 9.9 _12.0 _15.4 _18.8 _19.6 _18.8 _16.3 _13.1 __ 9.4 _07 __ 2016 _1990_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994 _________8.7 __ 7.1^__ 8.2 __ 9.8 _12.1 _15.5 _19.0 _19.6 _18.8 _16.2 _12.9 __ 9.4 _08 __ 2016 _2002_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994 _________8.5 __ 7.2^__ 8.2 __ 9.7 _12.2 _15.5 _19.1 _19.5 _18.7 _16.0 _12.8 __ 9.3 _09 __ 2016 _2002_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994 _________8.5 __ 7.4 __ 8.1 __ 9.6^_12.2^_15.6 _19.0 _19.4 _18.6 _15.8^_12.8 __ 9.2 _10 __ 2016 _2002_1779_2017_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2006_2005_1994 _________8.4 __ 7.6 __ 8.0 __ 9.6 _12.3 _15.7 _19.0^_19.3 _18.5 _15.8 _12.6 __ 9.1 _11 __ 2016 _2002_1998_2017_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_1947_2006_2005_1994 _________8.3 __ 7.8 __ 7.9 __ 9.5^_12.3 _15.7 _19.1^_19.4 _18.4 _15.7 _12.5 __ 9.2 _12 __ 2016 _2002_2019_2017_2011_1992_ 1976_1995_1947_2006_2022_1994 _________8.3 __ 8.0 __ 7.8^__ 9.5^_12.3 _15.5^_19.3 _19.4 _18.3 _15.5 _12.3 __ 9.2 _13 __ 2016 _2002_1961_2017_2011_1822_ 1976_1995_1947_1949_2022_1994 _________8.2 __ 8.0 __ 7.9^__ 9.5 _12.3 _ 15.7 _19.4 _19.4 _18.2 _15.5^_12.3 _ 9.3 _14 __ 2016 _2002_2019_2011_2011_1822_ 1976_1995_1947_1949_2022_1994 _________8.1^__ 7.9 __ 8.0^__ 9.6^__12.4 _ 15.9 _19.5 _19.4 _18.0 _15.2 _12.3 _ 9.0 _15 __ 1975 _2002_2019_1945_1893_1822_ 1976_2022_1947_1949_2022_1994 _________8.1 __ 7.8 __ 8.1 __ 9.8^_12.6 _ 16.1 _19.5 _19.5^_18.0 _15.2 _12.2 _ 8.7 _16 __ 1975 _2002_2019_1945_1893_1822_ 1976_1995^_1947_1949_2022_1994 _________8.1 __ 7.7 __ 8.2 __10.2 _12.8 _ 16.2 _19.6 _19.6 _17.9 _15.2 _12.1 _ 8.4 _17 __ 1975 _2002_2019_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1994 _________8.0 __ 7.7 __ 8.2 __10.3^_12.9 _ 16.2 _19.7 _19.7 _17.6^_15.1 _12.0 _ 8.4 _18 __ 1975 _2002,24_1990_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1994 _________7.9 __ 7.7 __ 8.3 __10.6 _13.1 _ 16.5 _19.8 _19.8 _17.5 _15.0 _11.9 _ 8.3 _19 __ 1975 _2024_1990_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1828 _________7.8 __ 8.1 __ 8.5 __10.7 _13.1 _ 16.8 _19.9 _19.9&_17.4 _14.9 _11.8 _ 8.5^ _ (& note below (Jul-Aug 1911)) _20 __ 1975 _2024_1990_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1828 _________7.7^__ 8.3 __ 8.6 __11.0 _ 13.1 _ 17.2 _20.0 _19.9 _17.3 _14.8 _11.6 _ 8.5 _21 __ 1916 _2024_1990_1945_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1828 _________7.6 __ 8.3 __ 8.7 __11.0 _ 13.3 _ 17.4 _20.0 _20.0 _17.2 _14.6 _11.3 _ 8.6^ _22 __ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2016_1949_ 2022 _2015 _________7.7 __ 8.3 __ 8.7 __11.0 _ 13.6 _ 17.7 _20.1 _20.2 _17.0^_14.5 _11.1 _ 8.8 _23 __ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2016,23_1949_2022_2015 _________7.6 __ 8.2^__ 8.6 __11.2 _13.8 _ 17.7 _20.0 _20.3 _16.8^_14.2 _10.9 _ 9.0 _24 __ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2006,23_1949_2022_2015 _________7.6 __ 8.0 __ 8.6 __11,3 _14.0 _ 17.7 _19.8 _20.2 _16.7^_13.9^ _10.7 _ 9.2 _25___ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2006_2001_2022_2015 _________7.6 __ 7.9 __ 8.5^__11.4 _14.2 _ 17.7 _19.7 _20.2_16.8^_13.8^_10.6 _ 9.3 _26 __ 1916 _2024_1957_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1921_1994_2015 _________7.6 __ 7.8 __ 8.7 __11.5 _14.5 _ 17.8 _19.6 _20.1 _16.8^_13.7 _10.4 _ 9.4 _27 __ 1916 _1869_1957_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1921_1994_2015 _________7.6 __ 7.7 __ 8.8 __11.6 _14.5 _ 17.8 _19.5 _20.0 _16.9 _13.8 _10.4 _ 9.4 _28 __ 1916 _1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_ 2006_1995_2023_2001_1994_2015 _________7.7 __ 7.7 __ 8.9 __11.6 _14.6 _ 18.0 _19.7 _19.7 _16.9 _13.7 _10.3 _ 9.4 _29 __ 1916_1872* 1957_2011_1833_1846_ 2006_1995_2006,23_2001_1994_2015 _________7.8 __7.0* __9.0 __11.8 _14.7 _ 18.1 _19.8 _19.5_16.87_13.6 _10.2 _ 9.6 _30 __ 1916 _ -- -- _1957_2011_1833_1846_ 2006_1995_2023_2001_1994_2015 _________7.7 __-- -- __9.1 __11.9 _14.9 _ 18.1 _19.8 _19.3 _16.9 _13.4 _10.0 _ 9.7 _31 __ 1916 _xxxx _1957_xxxx_1833_xxxx_ 2006_1995_xxxx_2001_ xxxx_2015 _________7.7 __-- -- __9.2 __-- -- __15.1 _ -- -- _ 19.8 _ 19.1 _-- -- _13.2 _-- -- _ 9.6 ________________________ So, while there are only 12 years with the distinction of holding a warmest month, there are many years that have at least one warmest 31-day interval (or are tied in one decimal). Several years (incl 1846, 1976, 1990, 2006, 2011, 2015, 2022) produced two entirely separate ones, and 2006 also participates in a third near miss in mid-January of 2007. ^ years tied in one dec 15 Dec - 14 Jan (2015-2016 _ 8.13) (1974-1975 8.08) 21 Dec - 20 Jan (1974-1975 _ 7.65) (1975-1976 7.48 ... stays 0.1 to 0.2 lower than 1915-1916 run for several days. ... ... ... Peak is 7.57 for 23 Dec to 22 Jan 1976 ... ... 1920-1921 also approaches but does not overtake 1915-1916 (peak 25 Dec 1920 - 24 Jan 1921 is 7.56). 4 Jan - 3 Feb 1796 (7.22) _ 1916 (7.17) 5 Jan - 4 Feb 1796 (7.14) _ 1834 (7.13) 6 Jan - 5 Feb 1796,1834 (7.10) _ 1846 (7.06) 8 Jan - 7 Feb 1990 (7.08) _ 2002 (7.06) 9 Jan - 8 Feb 2002 (7.18) _ 1990 (7.16) 24 Jan - 23 Feb 1903 (7.44) _ 2002 (7.40) both lost out to 8.18 2024 10 Feb - 12 Mar 2019 (7.81) _ 1998 (7.80). 1961 (7.77). 2007 (7.75) 11 Feb - 13 Mar 1961 (7.89) _ 2007, 2019 (7.85) 12 Feb - 14 Mar 2019 (8.01) _ 1961 (7.95) 23 Feb - 25 Mar 1990 (8.51) _ 1957 (8.50) 10 Mar - 9 Apr 1957 (9.60) _ 2017 (9.56) 12 Mar -11 Apr 2017 (9.50) _ 2011 (9.47) 13 Mar -12 Apr 2017 (9.49) _ 2011 (9.45) 15 Mar -14 Apr 2011 (9.60) _ 1803 (9.58) 16 Mar -15 Apr 1945 (9.84) _ 1803 (9.77) 18 Mar -17 Apr 1945 (10.30) _ 1803 (10.28) 09 Apr - 09 May 2011 (12.23) _ 2007 (12.15) _ after several days wit in 0.1, this was only one dec tie, next day was 0.02 diff (12.25-12.23) ... ... ... note also 1775 was close to level by end of 2011 run, but as it passed 2011, 1893 began a week-long run (1775 was 0.1 back for 14 Apr - 14 May ... ... and peaked at 12.64 for 17 Apr - 17 May (but 1833 was already up to 12.93) . 06 May - 05 June 1833 (15.32) _ 1947 (15.25) 13 May - 12 June 1992 (15.54) _ 1833 (15.52) _ 1822 (15.49) 04 June - 04 July 1846 (18.20) _ 1976 (18.18) 11 June - 11 July 1826 peaked 18.90 (rounded to 18.9 four intervals 9-12 Jun to 9-12 July) 27 June - 27 July 2006 (19.47) _ 1976 (19.45) _ also (not tied) 2018 _ 19.42 2 July - 1 Aug 1983 peaked at 19.44 (not a record, 2006 was 19.69 4 July - 3 Aug 1995 (19.34) _ 2006 (19.31) _ also (not tied) 2018 _ 19.22 15 July - 14 Aug 2022 (19.50) _ 1995 (19.49) _ note 2003 peaked 13,14 July - 12,13 Aug at 19.10, ... ... ... 1990 also peaked at 18.53 13 Jul - 12 Aug. (2019 10 Jul - 9 Aug 18.35) 16 July - 15 Aug 1995 (19.61) _ 2022 (19.55) _ also 1975 (18.96) peaked note& 20, 21 July - 19, 20 Aug 1911 peaked at 19.46, 11 Aug - 10 Sep ... 1898 peaked at 17.61, and stayed about 0.8 below record pace to 0.3 below records by 23 Aug-22 Sep 18 Aug - 17 Sep _ 2023 (17.61) _ 1947 (17.60) 23 Aug - 22 Sep _ 2016 (17.02) _ 2023 (16.96) _ 1865 peaked two days earlier at 16.96 (not a record) 24 Aug - 23 Sep _ 2016,2023 (16.79) _ 1949 (16.76) 25 Aug - 24 Sep _ 1949, 2006 (16.70) _ 2023 (16.69) 26 Aug - 25 Sep _ 2006 (16.79) _ 2023 (16.76) 27 Aug - 26 Sep _ 2023 (16.80) _ 2006 (16.78) 30 Aug - 29 Sep _ 2006,23 (16.87) _ 1949 was 16.53, staying 0.1-0.3 below all records since it tied a record 25 Aug-24 Sep. 31 Aug - 30 Sep _ 2023 (16.89) _ 2006 (16.85) ... 2006 began to fall off 2023 pace but returned to record status later. 9 Sep - 9 Oct _ 2023 (15.81) _ 2006 (15.75) 13 Sep - 13 Oct _ 1949 (15.34) _ 2006 (15.30) 24 Sep - 24 Oct _ 1949 (13.94) _ 2001 (13.85) _ note 1921 was close to record pace for previous ten days, 0.2 to 0.4 below 1949. 25 Sep - 25 Oct _ 2001 (13.82) _ 1949 (13.75) Oct-Nov 2022 run wiped out runs for 2015 and 1978; 1938 was not a factor, only a 20-day spike in CET values 1-20 Nov. 18 Nov - 18 Dec 2015 (8.38) _ 1828 (8.37) 19 Nov - 19 Dec 1828 (8.47) _ 2015 (8.45) 21 Nov - 21 Dec 1828 (8.63) _ 2015 (8.58) _ 1934 (8.45) ___________________ If we did not have a calendar we would probably consider all of date 31-day averages equally valid. Our calendar is basically a sort of blend of lunar cycle and annual cycle, and has no real special significance (I figure 1828's obscure 3-day run Nov-Dec is just as valid as July 2006, or Feb 1779, but who knew it was hiding in the data? ... various other surprises were found in years like 1803).

Not a lot of recent work, I constructed the tables a while ago so I just needed to find the top values. Later on I will post a list of years that would be "record warm months" if we didn't have a calendar and every 31 day interval counted the same. It includes all the familiar cases of course, but there are one or two surprise entries.

For any 31 days that fall entirely within January and February, these are the top ten averages I found (allowing only one per year otherwise you get numerous entries a day or two displaced from the optimal cases) ... allowing in days from Dec or march will obviously change this list considerably. Perhaps 1st of march could be allowed in for non-leap-year Febs, alternate results shown for 1779 and 1998, the only cases where this boosted a value (1990 did not get a higher result). The v2.0.1.0 data are used. January averages from years before 1772 (daily data) are inserted into table as values in said months would have been at least that high. Feb averages less 0.05 (for possibly colder end of Jan days) are inserted also. None appear to be contenders for top ten. Table edited for new record 21 Feb 2024 Warmest 31-day intervals entirely within Jan-Feb Rank ___ Average ___ Start __ End ___ Year _ 01 ____ 8.29 ______ 21 01 _ 20 02 _ 2024 _ 02 ____ 7.97 _______ 14 01 _ 13 02 _ 2002 _ 03 ____ 7.75 _______ 27 01 _ 26 02 _ 1869 _ 04 ____ 7.70 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1779 (7.87 30 01 to 01 03) _ 05 ____ 7.57 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1916 _ 06 ____ 7.44 _______ 24 01 _ 23 02 _ 1903 _ 07 ____ 7.32 _______ 02 01 _ 01 02 _ 1796 _ 08 ____ 7.31 _______ 23 01 _ 22 02 _ 1867 _ 09 ____ 7.30 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1921 * _ 10 ____ 7.25 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1990 _ 11 ____ 7.20 _______ 03 01 _ 02 02 _ 1834 * (7.56 29 12 to 28 01) _ 12 ____ 7.17 _______ 18 01 _ 17 02 _ 1918 _ 13 ____ 7.12 _______ 03 01 _ 02 02 _ 2007 * _ 14 ____ 7.06 _______ 06 01 _ 05 02 _ 1846 _t15 ____ 6.98 _______ 30 01 _ 29 02 _ 1872 _t15 ____ 6.98 _______ 13 01 _ 12 02 _ 2008 _t17 ____ 6.94 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1945 (6.96 30 01 to 01 03) _t17 ____ 6.94 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1961 (6.96 30 01 to 01 03) _ 19 ____ 6.90 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1733 (or higher, no daily data) _ 20 ____ 6.85 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 2022 _ 21 ____ 6.84 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1998 (6.94 30 01 to 01 03) _ 22 ____ 6.82 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1975 * _ 23t____ 6.80 _______ 13 01 _ 12 02 _ 1866 _ 23t____ 6.80 _______ 04 01 _ 03 02 _ 1898 _ 25 ____ 6.75 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1739 (est) _ 26 ____ 6.73 _______ 03 01 _ 02 02 _ 1884 _ 27 ____ 6.70 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1983 * (6.80 30 12 to 29 01) _ 28 ____ 6.67 _______ 12 01 _ 11 02 _ 1804 _ 29t____ 6.65 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1926 (6.68 30 12 to 29 01) _ 29t____ 6.65 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1750 (est) _ 31 ____ 6.64 _______ 05 01 _ 04 02 _ 2020 _ 32 ____ 6.59 _______ 11 01 _ 10 02 _ 1938 _ 33 ____ 6.58 _______ 19 01 _ 18 02 _ 1817 _ 34t____ 6.50 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1686 (or higher, no daily data) _ 34t____ 6.50 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 2023 _ 36 ____ 6.47 _______ 29 01 _ 28 02 _ 1995 _ 37 ____ 6.45 _______ 05 01 _ 04 02 _ 1993 (6.45 also 10 01 to 09 02) _ 38t____ 6.40 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1875 _ 38t____ 6.40 _______ 23 01 _ 22 02 _ 2016 (see notes re Dec 2015-Jan 2016) _ 38t____ 6.40 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1736 (or higher, no daily data) _ 41t____ 6.30 _______ 18 01 _ 17 02 _ 1923 _ 41t____ 6.30 _______ 01 01 _ 31 01 _ 1932 2019 below 6.1 to end of Feb, was 7.0 for 3 Feb to 5 mar and 7.8 for 7 Feb to 9 mar. * See Jan 1834 and 1983 above, increases by taking just two or three days from Dec 1833) ... Three other cases above improved by adding in 7 to 10 Dec days, so even if we were to say a min of 21/31 days must be in Jan, would be 25 Dec 1920 to 24 Jan 1921, 23 Dec 2006 to 22 Jan 2007 and 22 Dec 1974 - 21 Jan 1975 (averages increase to 7.51 for 1920-21 and 1974-75 and 7.33 for 2006-07). For Jan 1916, the only entrant also exclusively (no Dec or Feb boosts possible) a calendar month (to be fair, no February could be), using any part of Dec 1915 did not boost its result either. Another interval starting in late Dec was 23 Dec 1975 to 22 Jan 1976 (7.64) but this rapidly declined to values below 6 by 1-31 Jan 1976. Of course higher averages persist into Jan 2016 from Dec 2015, the first average to fall below 8.0 is 15 Dec 2015 to 14 Jan 2016, averages then stay above 7.0 for just two days, and level off around 5.7 before a secondary peak of 6.4 for 23 Jan to 22 Feb 2016. List was cross-checked against monthly averages. Jan 1686 average 6.5 would place it in list for at least 6.50.

The warmest 31-day average during Jan-Feb appears to be 8.0 for 14 Jan to 13 Feb 2002. A close second is 7.7 for 27 or 28 Jan to 26 or 27 Feb 1869. To get a comparable period in 1779 would require using days in early march. So to answer the inevitable question, following are top ten values after 14, 15 days either of which might be considered mid-month this leap year Feb, so we can see where 2024 stands at that point. Table is in order of 1-14 Feb and ranks for 1-15 are shown in table. Also shown are CET after 1-20 Feb and at end of Feb. Top 20 Running CET values 1-14 Feb Rank __ YEAR ___ CET 1-14 _ 1-15 Feb __ Rank 1-15 __ (1-20) __ (1-28 or 29) *leap year 29d _ 01 ___ 1869 ____ 8.76 _____ 8.73 _____ 1 __________ 8.25 _______ 7.49 _ 02 ___ 2002 ____ 8.16 _____ 7.89 _____ 4 __________ 7.35 _______ 6.97 _ 03 ___ 1914 ____ 8.10 _____ 8.23 _____ 2 __________ 7.39 _______ 6.82 _ 04 ___ 2004 ____ 7.99 _____ 7.91 _____ 3 __________ 7.06 _______ 5.40* _ 05 ___ 1918 ____ 7.89 _____ 7.72 _____ 6 __________ 6.41 _______ 6.50 _ 06 ___ 1877 ____ 7.85 _____ 7.75 _____ 5 __________ 7.27 _______ 6.20 _ 07 ___ 1779 ____ 7.76 _____ 7.68 _____ 7 __________ 7.99 _______ 7.87 _ 08 ___ 1946 ____ 7.67 _____ 7.66 _____ 8t__________ 7.54 _______ 5.91 _ 09 ___ 1948 ____ 7.60 _____ 7.66 _____ 8t__________ 6.12 _______ 4.70* _ 10 ___ 1903 ____ 7.46 _____ 7.47 _____10 __________ 7.15 _______ 7.11 _ 11 ___ 1872 ____ 7.39 _____ 7.19 _____12 __________ 6.76 _______ 6.89 * _ 12 ___ 2011 ____ 7.21 _____ 6.97 _____15 __________ 6.41 _______ 6.51 _ 13 ___ 1961 ____ 7.19 _____ 7.27 _____11 __________ 7.31 _______ 6.90 _ 14 ___ 2000 ____ 7.07 _____ 6.92 _____16 __________ 6.37 _______ 6.21 * _ 15 ___ 1792 ____ 7.00 _____ 6.86 _____17 __________ 4.92 _______ 4.47 * _ 16 ___ 1867 ____ 6.99 _____ 7.15 _____13 __________ 7.40 _______ 6.89 _ 17 ___ 1833 ____ 6.96 _____ 6.71 _____22 __________ 6.11 _______ 5.60 _ 18 ___ 1957 ____ 6.95 _____ 6.68 _____23 __________ 5.53 _______ 5.29 _ 19 ___ 1990 ____ 6.94 _____ 6.76 _____21 __________ 6.94 _______ 7.33 _ 20 ___ 1995 ____ 6.91 _____ 6.99 _____14 __________ 6.88 _______ 6.49 <<< Raw data for 21-43 >>> 2022 6.83 6.84 7.07 6.95 __ rank 18 (1-15) 1989 6.73 6.81 6.70 5.96 __ rank 19t (1-15) 1982 6.69 6.44 5.31 4.78 1933 6.65 6.35 5.16 4.30 1945 6.63 6.51 7.05 7.10 1998 6.60 6.81 7.21 7.23 __ rank 19t (1-15) 1894 6.59 6.41 5.28 5.10 1923 6.51 6.31 5.66 5.60 1848 6.49 6.43 5.67 6.12 * 1925 6.49 6.34 5.75 5.21 1775 6.46 6.42 6.12 6.14 1794 6.44 6.67 6.70 7.16 1822 6.43 6.54 6.61 6.34 1790 6.42 6.33 6.17 6.63 1781 6.38 6.21 5.36 4.85 2005 6.37 6.19 5.42 4.31 1866 6.30 6.27 5.09 4.40 2020 6.29 6.43 6.54 6.44 * 1815 6.28 6.30 6.41 6.51 1920 6.28 6.34 6.54 5.99 * 1856 6.27 6.33 5.33 5.30 * 1885 6.26 6.34 5.43 5.79 1943 6.26 6.31 6.15 6.11 1850 6.00 6.32 6.64 6.39 (for inclusion, either 1-14 or 1-15 is 6.3 or above) 2019 was 4.84 5.01 5.84 6.89

On our way to 100+ mm if GFS is correct, 25 mm to 7th and probably nearly that yesterday, so 50 mm so far and GFS indicates a grid average of 50-60 mm. Would bring a total of 100-110 mm by nearly end of February. Also an unsettled pattern at end of run, could easily see 10-20 mm more by 29 Feb.

Anyway, I see the CET site is now updated, 7.8 after eight days and it would have been 8.4 after seven days if a value had been posted yesterday for the 7th. The last two days are both in low 4 range.

Looking at model runs, would say a 6 to 6.5 ending is most likely, it won't compete for warmest February, but it won't drop a lot more than it does by Tuesday.

I only see data for 1-6 Feb and it adds up to 54.4 (54.4/6 = 9.07). I suspect one of the daily means that was there before was adjusted but I didn't make any copies, it would need to be 6 Feb altered. Copy of screen I see (removed irrelevant info below 7th and no data mar to dec). 2024 _0.9 _5.3 2024 _4.7 _9.1 _ 1 __ 8.0 _5.7 _ 2 __ 8.4 _8.4 _ 3 __ 8.1 11.0 _ 4 __ 5.9 10.7 _ 5 __ 5.6 _9.7 _ 6 __ 3.8 _8.9 _ 7 __ 2.3 -99.9 (-99.9 = no data) (etc) The first column would be Jan data, second column is Feb data. First row is anomaly and second row is running CET average. They may well say it's provisional to 7th but it does not include any data for 7th.

To clarify situation with running CET, no value was posted for 7 Feb and it now reads 9.1 for 6 days.

You said 7.4 and it's third highest forecast in the table. We also have an 8.1 and a 9.0.

Yesterday's mean and min were within 0.2 of records set in 2011 (10.3 and 8.8), but max was over a degree below 1989 record of 13.6 C. The updated running CET has moved up to 3rd warmest after 6 days (was tied 5th warmest after five days as I reported). Only 2004 (10.3) and 1801 (9.4) are now ahead of 2024. 1869 only gained 0.1 to be tied fourth now at 9.1 with 1862, and 1914 dropped back to 8.6, while 2002 dropped further to 8.4.

I hope 1779 holds on, it's quite the run considering all the challenges, Feb 1869 was very warm (see wx-history's thread in historical weather section) and couldn't beat it, 1990 and 1998, 2002 and 2004, and 2019's late surge all fell short. There wasn't any really outrageous warmth in Feb 1779, in my tracking, it set just one daily record (in terms of records by 1900) later broken (the year holds on to one in march which stayed as mild as Feb 1779 at 7.9). What brought 1779 to the top was a complete absence of colder days after a cool start (5.9 by 5 Feb 1779 and 7.4 by 10 Feb), it was almost always around 8 C 6-28 Feb. (6, 13 and 26 Feb were 10 or a bit above 10 CET). Interesting that three notable warm spells occurred in alternate years of that decade, the notable warm spell end of Apr 1775, three very warm days in late march 1777, and Feb 1779 into march 1779 (actually 1779 was quite a warm year in general). This is not the highest CET after five days (9.0). 2004 was at 11.4 on 5th. 1801 was 9.3, 1862 and 1914 were 9.1, and 1869 was also 9.0, so we are currently tied fifth. 7th place is 8.8 in 2002, and 8th was 8.6 in 1852. Rounding out top twelve (1-5 Feb), 8.3 in 1966, 8.2 in 1923 and 1967, and 8.1 in 1957. (other notables 7.9 1826, 2000 and 2016, 7.8 1937, 7.6 1948, 7.5 1835 and 1985, 7.4 1809 and 1872, 1935, 2022 and 2023, 7.3 1775, 1797, 1866, 1938, and 1946, 7.2 1999) The latest any Feb stayed 9.0 or above was 11th (1869 was 9.2). 1923 started with the lead 1st-2nd, then 2004 was out front 3rd to 8th and was still at 10.3 on 7th, 9.6 on 8th, but 1869 held the lead 9th to 25th before being caught by 1779 at the wire (one-dec ties 23rd-26th and in front 7.74 to 7.67 by 26 Feb, "winning" with 7.9 to 7.5 at end). The highest leap year average was 6.9 in Feb 1872. (1779 would have been on 8.0 (7.96) if it had been a leap year, 1st of march 1779 was 9.8 C, therefore if Feb 2024 edges out 1779 with 8.0 it will be an asterisk win for sure). Another notable warm spell "back then" was late Oct and Nov 1772, which has had bad luck holding on to its records after 2013-14. With a period of about 2.1-2.2 years this looks like an active QBO in that decade and in between came some extreme cold spells, in winter 1773-74, Jan 1776 and parts of 1778, certainly Jan 1780 was extremely cold (also said to be the coldest winter ever seen in northeastern U.S.). This oscillation persisted into the 1780s, you can see very cold outbreaks in 1782, 1784 and 1786 but volcanic activity in Iceland had a role in cold spells by mid-1780s. Jan 1784 was another extreme cold winter in eastern NA. It was a very active period of weather. Another detail often forgotten is that 1780 was a terrible year for Caribbean hurricanes, death tolls of tens of thousands were recorded. The sun was quite active with peaks in 1778 and 1787-88 resembling 1957 and 1968. The Dalton minimum started after the 1787-88 peak slowly wound down, some research suggests a very minor peak in 1794-96, a weak peak occurred 1801--04 and another quite weak one in 1815-16, not very much solar activity 1808-1812 or after 1819 until next peak in 1829-30. The Dalton ended before a very active cycle in 1837-38.

Again, 2004 kept 2024 out of records, in fact 4 Feb 2004 was February's warmest daily mean. I also show 1999, previous record for 4 Feb. 2024: 13.0 __ 10.7 ___ 8.4 2004: 14.8 __ 12.8 __ 10.8 1999: 12.3 __ 10.1 ___ 7.8

EWP confirmed as 97.2 and previous scoring posts are adjusted. In annual scoring, J10 is in lead at 17.79 points, Noname_weather is second at 17.65, Don, WYorksWeather and JeffC are 3rd to 5th. All scoring can be found a few days back in the thread (posted Tuesday 30 Jan). Dancerwithwings (96.0) was top scorer for January, Weather26 (also 96.0, later entry) second, PIT (95.0), jonboy (99.0) and TillyS (95.0) are 3rd to 5th (jonboy 3rd lowest error but with a late penalty).

No new records, 14.5, 12.2 and 10.0 (all 2004) beat out 2024 values of 13.2, 11.0, 8.7.

Our warm forecasts are probably in trouble if the GFS is right about an extended cold spell, but in past we have often seen the GFS overdo cold at longer time scales, so it's hard to say if t is is a real problem or not. (earlier it looked like a four or five day cold spell followed by a gradual return to milder). If GFS is correct we would see a peak CET of about 7.5 C in a few days, and a gradual decline to 3.5 by 19 Feb. EWP first report, only around 1 mm so far, GFS estimate to 19 Feb is a grid average of 40 mm.

Agreed, GFS + 0.5 is usually a good rule. I looked into 10-day averages for cold spells since 1979. Using v2.0.1.0 data I find following results: Coldest 10d intervals 1979 to 2024 Dec 17-26 2010 ____________-4.15 Jan 6-15 1982 ______________-3.95 Dec 10-19 1981 ____________-3.51 (subzero Dec 8-9 also, see continuation below) Jan 9-18 1987 ______________-3.16 Feb 10-19 1985 ____________-2.48 Nov 28-Dec 7 2010 ________-2.20 (-2.26 11d Nov 28-Dec 8 ) Feb 3-12 1991 _____________-2.12 (coldest portion of 29d spell, coldest non-overlap below ^) Jan 9-18 1985 _____________ -1.98 (-2.11 Jan 7-18, 12d) Dec 7-16 2022 _____________-1.88 Jan 1-10 2010 ______________-1.81 Feb 6-15 1986 ______________-1.76 Feb 20 - mar 1 1986 _______ -1.75 Jan 21-30 1979 _____________ -1.49 $$ (see next entry) (note also -0.4 for 7d Dec 17-23 1978 and -0.8 for 5d Nov 27-Dec 1 1978) Dec 30 1978 - Jan 8 1979 ___ -1.37 ( 8d avg -2.5 Dec 30 to Jan 6) (two non-overlap intervals follow) $ and $$ Dec 31 1996 - Jan 9 1997 __ -0.98 * (second part of 20d cold spell) Feb 2-11 2012 _____________ -0.98 Jan 16-25 2013 _____________-0.82 Dec 24 1995 - Jan 2 1996 __ -0.79 ( 7d avg -2.19 Dec 25-31) Dec 29 2008 - Jan 7 2009 __ -0.72 Jan 24 - Feb 2 1996 _________-0.58 (coldest average but close to Jan 29-Feb 7 ) Dec 20-29 1981 ____________ -0.35 (coldest non-overlap, -0.8 9d Dec 20-28) Feb 10-19 1979 ____________ -0.29 Jan 22-31 1992 _____________-0.23 Dec 22-31 1992 ____________-0.22 (Dec 25 to Jan 3 1993 also -0.20) Dec 6-15 1991 _____________ -0.20 Feb 22 - mar 3 2018 _______ -0.20 Dec 16-25 2009 ____________-0.14 Dec 26 1985 - Jan 5 1986 __+0.07 Jan 10-19 1980 ____________ +0.23 Feb 9-18 1983 _____________+0.32 Jan 11-20 1979 ____________ +0.57 ($ see above two non-overlapping intervals before, after) Dec 23 2000 - Jan 1 2001 __+0.60 ( 6d avg -1.29 Dec 26-31) Jan 3-12 2003 ______________+0.60 Feb 14-23 1994 ____________+0.68 Dec 30 2020-Jan 8 2021 ____+0.72 Feb 1-10 2009 ______________+0.73 Dec 21-30 1996 ____________ +0.75 (first part of cold 20d spell, no overlap w Dec 31-Jan 9 1997 above)** Dec 29 2001 - Jan 7 2002 ___+0.87 ( 8d avg -0.08 Dec 29-Jan 5) Nov 20-29 1993 ____________ +0.91 (equivalent to -1 or even -2 in Jan-Feb) (+1.56 Nov 24 - Dec 3 1989) Feb 17-26 1981 _____________+0.95 mar 23 - Apr 1 2013 _______ +1.06 (considering normal values 6-7 C quite extreme) Jan 24 - Feb 2 1991 ________ +1.08 ^ (coldest non-overlap to Feb 3-12 very cold spell) Feb 6-15 2021 _____________ +1.09 ( 8d avg 0.01 7-14 Feb) also close to criterion of +1.2 or lower include (Feb 13-22 1984 +1.26) (Jan 18-27 1984 +1.32) (Feb 20 to mar 1 2005 +1.63) (Jan 10-19 2024 +1.38) ** (96-97) various later ten-day averages are lower but overlap part of coldest portion Dec 31 to Jan 9. Jan 10 1997 was also +0.5 To give a longer context, -4.58 for 17-26 Jan 1963, -4.07 for 11-20 Feb 1929, and -3.36 for 16-25 Feb 1947; -5.87 for 5-14 Feb 1895.