Roger J Smith

20 Mar 2024 tied 1779 for daily mean (12.3) and edged out 2017 for high min (9.5). Today looks a bit cooler than record values. Will probably be enough to push CET to 8.2 next report. 2024 already sits at 3.5 daily mean records, top ten yearly counts are between 8 and 11.

I believe that (1990) is the highest mean monthly for Jan, Feb and Mar (equal weighted it would be 7.37 C). Second highest would be 2007 (avg 6.77) and 2024 would need to be 7.8 to tie it -- next are t3 1998 tied 2002 (avg 6.70) just ahead of 5th 1957 at 6.67. 2024 would tie 1998/2002 with a 7.6 Mar, and 1957 with 7.5. ... 1938 average 6.63 (7.4 needed to tie) ... 1834 was next at 6.60, and 2020 average was 6.57. So, the following is a list of all cases where Jan to Mar average 6.0 or higher (total CET 18 or greater). Jan to Mar average 6.0 or greater (rank order) and what 2024 needed to tie Rank ___ YEAR __ JAN _FEB _MAR ____ Average ___ 2024 to tie _ 01 ____ 1990 ___ 6.5 _ 7.3 _ 8.3 _____ 7.37 ________ 9.6 _ 02 ? ___2024 ___ 4.7 _ 7.8 _ 8.1 _____ 6.87 ________ (result) _ edited in on 2nd April ... as 2024 secured 2nd, following ranks are now one greater ... _ 03 ____ 2007 ___ 7.0 _ 6.0 _ 7.3 _____ 6.77 ________ 7.8 _t04 ____ 1998 ___ 5.1 _ 7.2 _ 7.8 _____ 6.70 ________ 7.6 _t04 ____ 2002 ___ 5.5 _ 7.0 _ 7.6 _____ 6.70 ________ 7.6 _ 06 ____ 1957 ___ 5.5 _ 5.3 _ 9.2 _____ 6.67 ________ 7.5 _ 07 ____ 1938 ___ 5.7 _ 5.1 _ 9.1 _____ 6.63 ________ 7.4 _t08 ____ 1834 ___ 7.1 _ 5.6 _ 7.1 _____ 6.60 ________ 7.3 _t08 ____ 2014 ___ 5.8 _ 6.3 _ 7.7 _____ 6.60 ________ 7.3 _ 10 ____ 2020 ___ 6.4 _ 6.5 _ 6.8 _____ 6.57 ________ 7.2 _t11 ____ 1989 ___ 6.1 _ 6.0 _ 7.5 _____ 6.53 ________ 7.1 _t11 ____ 2022 ___ 4.7 _ 6.9 _ 8.0 _____ 6.53 ________ 7.1 _t13 ____ 1686 ___ 6.5 _ 6.0 _ 7.0 _____ 6.50 ________ 7.0 _t13 ____ 1921 ___ 7.3 _ 4.8 _ 7.4 _____ 6.50 ________ 7.0 _t15 ____ 1961 ___ 3.9 _ 6.9 _ 8.2 _____ 6.33 ________ 6.5 _t15 ____ 2017 ___ 4.0 _ 6.2 _ 8.8 _____ 6.33 ________ 6.5 _ 17 ____ 1750 ___ 4.0 _ 6.7 _ 8.2 _____ 6.30 ________ 6.4 _t18 ____ 1733 ___ 6.9 _ 6.0 _ 5.9 _____ 6.27 ________ 6.3 _t18 ____ 1734 ___ 4.3 _ 6.4 _ 8.1 _____ 6.27 ________ 6.3 _t18 ____ 1822 ___ 4.7 _ 6.3 _ 7.8 _____ 6.27 ________ 6.3 _t18 ____ 1846 ___ 6.3 _ 6.4 _ 6.1 _____ 6.27 ________ 6.3 _t18 ____ 2019 ___ 4.0 _ 6.9 _ 7.9 _____ 6.27 ________ 6.3 _t23 ____ 1779 ___ 2.9 _ 7.9 _ 7.9 _____ 6.23 ________ 6.2 _t23 ____ 1872 ___ 5.0 _ 6.9 _ 6.8 _____ 6.23 ________ 6.2 _t23 ____ 1882 ___ 5.2 _ 6.1 _ 7.4 _____ 6.23 ________ 6.2 _t23 ____ 2023 ___ 5.2 _ 6.5 _ 7.0 _____ 6.23 ________ 6.2 _ 27 ____ 2000 ___ 4.8 _ 6.2 _ 7.5 _____ 6.17 ________ 6.0 _t28 ____ 1903 ___ 4.2 _ 7.1 _ 7.1 _____ 6.13 ________ 5.9 _t28 ____ 1920 ___ 5.2 _ 6.0 _ 7.2 _____ 6.13 ________ 5.9 _t28 ____ 1948 ___ 5.4 _ 4.7 _ 8.3 _____ 6.13 ________ 5.9 _t28 ____ 2008 ___ 6.7 _ 5.6 _ 6.1 _____ 6.13 ________ 5.9 _ 32 ____ 1884 ___ 6.4 _ 5.3 _ 6.5 _____ 6.07 ________ 5.7 _ 33 ____ 1999 ___ 5.5 _ 5.3 _ 7.3 _____ 6.03 ________ 5.6 _ 34 ____ 1761 ___ 5.4 _ 5.8 _ 6.8 _____ 6.00 ________ 5.5 __________________ 1997 and 2012 were just below 6.0 due to one colder month (Jan 97, Feb 12)

Could see that 1779 record going too, by looks of today's reported max and min so far, oddly Feb 1779 did not retain any records past about 1950, but mar 1779 has the one to its credit. The three-way tie for 21st involves 1927, 1931 and 2002.

19th held on to all CET records (17.5 1972, 11.8 1822, 9.6 2017) as 2024 values were 13.7, 11.3, 9.0 yesterday. Today's record mean is actually from 1779 (12.3) -- the recent highest mean was only 10.9 in 1992 -- and 1779 like 1822 does not have a corresponding max (those started in 1878), but we're into a season now where most days have quite high max records going along with cooler minima on clear nights (the 20th record high max was 17.2 (1929), and record high min 9.4 was also in 2017). The record high mean on 21st (possibly about to be challenged) is only 11.7 and is a three-way tie in v2.0, so would like to clear out that mess with a solo record, and get on to working the CET down into the vicinity of 7.4 just sayin.

April CET statistics __ the most recent 43 values are shown in three groups (14,14,15) -- bold warmest, italic medium values, underlined coolest) __ the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 averages are in bold italics. All data now v2.0.1.0 CET. 19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775) 11.9 ... warmest April (2011) 11.3 ... 2nd warmest April (2007) 10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865) 10.5 ... tied 4th warmest April (2020) and 1943 (5th in 2 decimals) 10.3 ... t6th warmest Aprils (tied 1798, 1893, 1987, 2014) (order 6, 8, 9, 7 in two decimals) 10.2 ... t10th warmest 1794, 1796, 1944 (order 12, 11, 10 in two decimals) 10.1 ... t13th warmest 1783, 1869, 1945 (order 15, 13, 14 in two decimals) 10.0 ... 16th warmest Aprils (seven tied, including 2009) which is 16th in two decimals 9.9 ... 2018 9.6 ... 2003 9.5 ... 1999 9.4 ... 1993, 2004 9.3 ... 2002 9.2 ... 2019, 2022 9.1 ... 1995, 2015 9.0 ... average for 1991-2020 (8.96) ...1997, 2017 ... also average 2001-2023 (9.03). ... ... also mean for 14 yrs 1862-1875 (surprise?) ... 1991-2020 is also highest 30-year average 8.9 ... 2005, 2010 and average for 1994-2023 8.7 ... 1992, 2006, 2023 8.6 ... 1982 8.5 ... 1996 ... average for 1981-2010 8.3 ... 1985 8.2 ... 1988 8.1 ... 1984 ... and average for 1971-2000 (8.06) (and 20th century 1901-2000) (8.05) 8.0 ... 1990, 1994, 2008 ... also average for all data 1659-2023 (7.954) 7.9 ... 1991 ... average for 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800 (7.907) and 19th century 1801-1900 (7.947) 7.8 ... 1981 7.7 ... 1998, 2000, 2001 7.6 ... 2013 7.5 ... 2016 7.3 ... 2012 ... and average for 1659-1700 7.0 ... lowest 30-yr average for April (6.96 1673-1702) 6.8 ... 1983 6.6 ... 1989 6.5 ... 2021 tied 40th coldest (placed 49th in two decimals), and second coldest since 1941 (6.4) 5.8 ... 1986 tied 18th coldest and coldest since 1922 5.7 ... 16th coldest (tied) 1784 and 1879 5.5 ... ninth coldest (tied) - 1922 with six other years (1922 placed coldest of them at 9th in two decimals) 5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799 5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809 4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837) --0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772) --0.4 ... coldest April daily mean since 1799 (2nd 1917) --0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (3rd, 1799) _________________________________________________________________ Enter your forecast for APRIL 2024 by the penalty-free deadline of 00:00 1st of April (end of Sunday 31st March) ... or take a penalty during the first three days of April for a late entry. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ================================================= _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ EWP contest for April 2024 The data set in use for the contest (Hadley EWP) with data from 1766 to 2023. Contest is based on a prediction of April precip in mm. These are the record and average values: 149.9 __ 2012 __ wettest 1766 to 2023 142.6 __ 2000 __ 2nd wettest 139.0 __ 1782 __ was the record until 2000 (now third wettest) 135.6 __ 1818 __ was 2nd wettest until 2000 (now fourth wettest) 130.9 __ 1998 __ went from 3rd to 4th to 5th wettest April within 14 years. 64.8 __ average 1981-2010 63.2 __ average 1991-2020 59.2 __ average 1994-2023 58.4 __ average all data 1766 to 2023 10.4 __ 2007 __ driest in 1981-2023 period (1984 was 10.7 and 2011 was 11.6) 07.1 __ 1938 __ driest 1766 to 2023 recent April EWP values ... 2023_76.8 mm, 2022_31.0 mm, 2021_13.5 mm, 2020_35.7 mm, 2019_45.9 mm, 2018 _ 91.4 mm, 2017 _ 19.9 mm, 2016 _ 73.3 mm, 2015 _ 28.1 mm, 2014 _ 63.8 mm, 2013_ 34.7 mm, 2012_ 149.9 mm, 2011_ 11.6 mm, 2010_ 30.1 mm, 2009_ 48.0 mm. ____________________________________ ^ ___________________________________ Enter this contest by the same deadline, 10.0 points for closest forecast, 0.3 penalty points per day late (first three days of April). You can add your EWP forecast to your CET temperature forecast. Good luck!!

Following table posted in Feb CET contest ... ... data are for 31 days ending on date reported, e.g., 8 Jan 2016 refers to 9 Dec 2015 to 8 Jan 2016. ... *as only leap years can end on 29 Feb, 1872 (7.0) is record, but if 1779 was a leap year it would be 7.9 ending 29 Feb. __Warmest 31d intervals ending on every calendar date__ date __ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _APR _ MAY _ JUN _JUL _ AUG _ SEP _OCT _ NOV _ DEC _01 __ 2016 _1916_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_2006_1997_2023_2001_1994 ________9.5 __ 7.4 __ 7.9 __ 9.3 _11.9 _15.3 _18.1 _ 19.7 _18.9 _17.0 _13.1 _ 9.8 _02 __ 2016 _1796_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_2006_1997_2023_2005_1994 ________9.3 __ 7.3 __ 7.9 __ 9.3 _11.9_15.5 _18.1 _ 19.6 _18.9 _16.9 _13.1 __ 9.8 _03 __ 2016 _1796_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_2006_1997_2023_2005_1994 ________9.2 __ 7.2^__ 7.8 __ 9.4 _11.7 _15.4 _18.1 _ 19.6 _18.9 _16.8 _13.3 __ 9.8 _04 __ 2016 _1796_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_1995_1997_2023_2005_1994 _________9.1 __ 7.2^__ 7.9 __ 9.6 _11.7 _15.4 _18.2^_19.6 _18.9 _16.6 _13.2 __ 9.8 _05 __2016 _1796,1834_1779_1957_2011_1833_1976_1995_1997_2023_2005_1994 _________9.1 __ 7.1^ __ 8.1 __ 9.9 _11.9 _15.3^_18.5 _19.6 _18.8 _16.5 _13.1 __ 9.6 _06 __2016_ 1990_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994 _________8.9 __ 7.1 __ 8.2 __ 9.9 _12.0 _15.4 _18.8 _19.6 _18.8 _16.3 _13.1 __ 9.4 _07 __ 2016 _1990_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994 _________8.7 __ 7.1^__ 8.2 __ 9.8 _12.1 _15.5 _19.0 _19.6 _18.8 _16.2 _12.9 __ 9.4 _08 __ 2016 _2002_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994 _________8.5 __ 7.2^__ 8.2 __ 9.7 _12.2 _15.5 _19.1 _19.5 _18.7 _16.0 _12.8 __ 9.3 _09 __ 2016 _2002_1779_2024_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994 _________8.5 __ 7.4 __ 8.1 __ 9.7^_12.2^_15.6 _19.0 _19.4 _18.6 _15.8^_12.8 __ 9.2 _10 __ 2016 _2002_1779_2024_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2006_2005_1994 _________8.4 __ 7.6 __ 8.0 __ 9.8 _12.3 _15.7 _19.0^_19.3 _18.5 _15.8 _12.6 __ 9.1 _11 __ 2016 _2002_1998_2024_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_1947_2006_2005_1994 _________8.3 __ 7.8 __ 7.9 __9.8^_12.3 _15.7 _19.1^_19.4 _18.4 _15.7 _12.5 __ 9.2 _12 __ 2016 _2002_2019_2024_2011_1992_ 1976_1995_1947_2006_2022_1994 _________8.3 __ 8.0 __ 7.8^_10.0^_12.3 _15.5^_19.3 _19.4 _18.3 _15.5 _12.3 __ 9.2 _13 __ 2016 _2002_1961_2024 _2011_1822_ 1976_1995_1947_1949_2022_1994 _________8.2 __ 8.0 __7.9^__10.2 _12.3 _ 15.7 _19.4 _19.4 _18.2 _15.5^_12.3 _ 9.3 _14 __ 2016 _2002_2019_2024_2011_1822_ 1976_1995_1947_1949_2022_1994 _________8.1^__ 7.9 __8.0^_10.2^_12.4 _ 15.9 _19.5 _19.4 _18.0 _15.2 _12.3 _ 9.0 _15 __ 1975 _2002_2019_2024_1893_1822_ 1976_2022_1947_1949_2022_1994 _________8.1 __ 7.8 __ 8.1 _10.0^_12.6 _16.1 _19.5 _19.5^_18.0 _15.2 _12.2 _ 8.7 _16 __ 1975 _2002_2019_1945_1893_1822_ 1976_1995^_1947_1949_2022_1994 _________8.1 __ 7.7 __ 8.2 __10.2 _12.8 _16.2 _19.6 _19.6 _17.9 _15.2 _12.1 _ 8.4 _17 __ 1975 _2002_2019_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1994 _________8.0 __ 7.7 __ 8.2 __10.3^_12.9 _ 16.2 _19.7 _19.7 _17.6^_15.1 _12.0 _ 8.4 _18 __ 1975 _2002,24_1990_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1994 _________7.9 __ 7.7 __ 8.3 __10.6 _13.1 _ 16.5 _19.8 _19.8 _17.5 _15.0 _11.9 _ 8.3 _19 __ 1975 _2024_1990_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1828 _________7.8 __ 8.1 __ 8.5 __10.7 _13.1 _ 16.8 _19.9 _19.9&_17.4 _14.9 _11.8 _8.5^ _ _20 __ 1975 _2024_1990_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1828 _________7.7^__ 8.3 __ 8.6 __11.0 _ 13.1 _ 17.2 _20.0 _19.9 _17.3 _14.8 _11.6 _8.5 _21 __ 1916 _2024_1990_1945_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1828 _________7.6 __ 8.3 __ 8.7 __11.0 _ 13.3 _ 17.4 _20.0 _20.0 _17.2 _14.6 _11.3 _8.6^ _22 __ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2016_1949_ 2022 _2015 _________7.7 __ 8.3 __ 8.7 __11.0 _ 13.6 _ 17.7 _20.1 _20.2 _17.0^_14.5 _11.1 _8.8 _23 __ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2016,23_1949_2022_2015 _________7.6 __ 8.2^__ 8.6 __11.2 _13.8 _ 17.7 _20.0 _20.3 _16.8^_14.2 _10.9 _ 9.0 _24 __ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2006,23_1949_2022_2015 _________7.6 __ 8.0 __ 8.6 __11,3 _14.0 _ 17.7 _19.8 _20.2 _16.7^_13.9^ _10.7 _ 9.2 _25___ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2006_2001_2022_2015 _________7.6 __ 7.9 __ 8.5^__11.4 _14.2 _ 17.7 _19.7 _20.2_16.8^_13.8^_10.6 _ 9.3 _26 __ 1916 _2024_1957_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1921_1994_2015 _________7.6 __ 7.8 __ 8.7 __11.5 _14.5 _ 17.8 _19.6 _20.1 _16.8^_13.7 _10.4 _ 9.4 _27 __ 1916 _1869_1957_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1921_1994_2015 _________7.6 __ 7.7 __ 8.8 __11.6 _14.5 _ 17.8 _19.5 _20.0 _16.9 _13.8 _10.4 _ 9.4 _28 __ 1916 _1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_ 2006_1995_2023_2001_1994_2015 _________7.7 __ 7.7 __ 8.9 __11.6 _14.6 _ 18.0 _19.7 _19.7 _16.9 _13.7 _10.3 _ 9.4 _29 __ 1916_1872* 1957_2011_1833_1846_ 2006_1995_2006,23_2001_1994_2015 _________7.8 __7.0* __9.0 __11.8 _14.7 _ 18.1 _19.8 _19.5_16.87_13.6 _10.2 _ 9.6 _30 __ 1916 _ xxxx _1957_2011_1833_1846_ 2006_1995_2023_2001_1994_2015 _________7.7 __-- -- __9.1 __11.9 _14.9 _ 18.1 _19.8 _19.3 _16.9 _13.4 _10.0 _ 9.7 _31 __ 1916 _xxxx _1957_xxxx_1833_xxxx_ 2006_1995_xxxx_2001_ xxxx_2015 _________7.6 __-- -- __9.2 __-- -- __15.1 _ -- -- _ 19.8 _ 19.1 _-- -- _13.2 _-- -- _ 9.6 ________________________ So, while there are only 12 years with the distinction of holding a warmest month, there are many years that have at least one warmest 31-day interval (or are tied in one decimal). Several years (incl 1846, 1976, 1990, 2006, 2011, 2015, 2022) produced two entirely separate ones, and 2006 also participates in a third near miss in mid-January of 2007. Note: intervals ending 10-14 Apr 2024 broke 2017 records of 9.6, 9.5, 9.5, 9.6, 9.6 and ending 9 Apr 1957 9.6. (also broke 15 Apr 1945 9.8) ^ years tied in one decimal (and a few near misses) 15 Dec - 14 Jan (2015-2016 _ 8.13) (1974-1975 8.08) 21 Dec - 20 Jan (1974-1975 _ 7.65) (1975-1976 7.48 ... stays 0.1 to 0.2 lower than 1915-1916 run for several days. ... ... ... Peak is 7.57 for 23 Dec to 22 Jan 1976 ... ... 1920-1921 also approaches but does not overtake 1915-1916 (peak 25 Dec 1920 - 24 Jan 1921 is 7.56). 4 Jan - 3 Feb 1796 (7.22) _ 1916 (7.17) 5 Jan - 4 Feb 1796 (7.14) _ 1834 (7.13) 6 Jan - 5 Feb 1796,1834 (7.10) _ 1846 (7.06) 8 Jan - 7 Feb 1990 (7.08) _ 2002 (7.06) 9 Jan - 8 Feb 2002 (7.18) _ 1990 (7.16) 24 Jan - 23 Feb 1903 (7.44) _ 2002 (7.40) both lost out to 8.18 2024 10 Feb - 12 Mar 2019 (7.81) _ 1998 (7.80). 1961 (7.77). 2007 (7.75) 11 Feb - 13 Mar 1961 (7.89) _ 2007, 2019 (7.85) 12 Feb - 14 Mar 2019 (8.01) _ 1961 (7.95) 23 Feb - 25 Mar 1990 (8.51) _ 1957 (8.50) 10 Mar - 9 Apr 1957 (9.60) _ 2017 (9.56) _ broken by 2024 (9.73) 11 Mar - 10 Apr 2017 9.6 (not tied) _ 2024 9.81 12 Mar -11 Apr 2017 (9.50) _ 2011 (9.47) _ broken by 2024 (10.02) 13 Mar -12 Apr 2017 (9.49) _ 2011 (9.45) _ broken by 2024 (10.23) 15 Mar -14 Apr 2011 (9.60) _ 1803 (9.58) _ broken by 2024 (10.15) 16 Mar -15 Apr 1945 (9.84) _ 1803 (9.77) _ broken by 2024 (10.03) 18 Mar -17 Apr 1945 (10.30) _ 1803 (10.28) 09 Apr - 09 May 2011 (12.23) _ 2007 (12.15) _ after several days within 0.1, this was only one dec tie, next day was 0.02 diff (12.25-12.23) ... ... ... note also 1775 was close to level by end of 2011 run, but as it passed 2011, 1893 began a week-long run (1775 was 0.1 back for 14 Apr - 14 May ... ... and peaked at 12.64 for 17 Apr - 17 May (but 1833 was already up to 12.93) . 06 May - 05 June 1833 (15.32) _ 1947 (15.25) 13 May - 12 June 1992 (15.54) _ 1833 (15.52) _ 1822 (15.49) 04 June - 04 July 1846 (18.20) _ 1976 (18.18) 11 June - 11 July 1826 peaked 18.90 (rounded to 18.9 four intervals 9-12 Jun to 9-12 July) 27 June - 27 July 2006 (19.47) _ 1976 (19.45) _ also (not tied) 2018 _ 19.42 2 July - 1 Aug 1983 peaked at 19.44 (not a record, 2006 was 19.69 4 July - 3 Aug 1995 (19.34) _ 2006 (19.31) _ also (not tied) 2018 _ 19.22 15 July - 14 Aug 2022 (19.50) _ 1995 (19.49) _ note 2003 peaked 13,14 July - 12,13 Aug at 19.10, ... ... ... 1990 also peaked at 18.53 13 Jul - 12 Aug. (2019 10 Jul - 9 Aug 18.35) 16 July - 15 Aug 1995 (19.61) _ 2022 (19.55) _ also 1975 (18.96) peaked __ note& 20, 21 July - 19, 20 Aug 1911 peaked at 19.46 11 Aug - 10 Sep ... 1898 peaked at 17.61, and stayed about 0.8 below record pace to 0.3 below records by 23 Aug-22 Sep 18 Aug - 17 Sep _ 2023 (17.61) _ 1947 (17.60) 23 Aug - 22 Sep _ 2016 (17.02) _ 2023 (16.96) _ 1865 peaked two days earlier at 16.96 (not a record) 24 Aug - 23 Sep _ 2016,2023 (16.79) _ 1949 (16.76) 25 Aug - 24 Sep _ 1949, 2006 (16.70) _ 2023 (16.69) 26 Aug - 25 Sep _ 2006 (16.79) _ 2023 (16.76) 27 Aug - 26 Sep _ 2023 (16.80) _ 2006 (16.78) 30 Aug - 29 Sep _ 2006,23 (16.87) _ 1949 was 16.53, staying 0.1-0.3 below all records since it tied a record 25 Aug-24 Sep. 31 Aug - 30 Sep _ 2023 (16.89) _ 2006 (16.85) ... 2006 began to fall off 2023 pace but returned to record status later. 9 Sep - 9 Oct _ 2023 (15.81) _ 2006 (15.75) 13 Sep - 13 Oct _ 1949 (15.34) _ 2006 (15.30) 24 Sep - 24 Oct _ 1949 (13.94) _ 2001 (13.85) _ note 1921 was close to record pace for previous ten days, 0.2 to 0.4 below 1949. 25 Sep - 25 Oct _ 2001 (13.82) _ 1949 (13.75) Oct-Nov 2022 run wiped out runs for 2015 and 1978; 1938 was not a factor, only a 20-day spike in CET values 1-20 Nov. 18 Nov - 18 Dec 2015 (8.38) _ 1828 (8.37) 19 Nov - 19 Dec 1828 (8.47) _ 2015 (8.45) 21 Nov - 21 Dec 1828 (8.63) _ 2015 (8.58) _ 1934 (8.45) ___________________ If we did not have a calendar we would probably consider all of date 31-day averages equally valid. Our calendar is basically a sort of blend of lunar cycle and annual cycle, and has no real special significance (I figure 1828's obscure 3-day run Nov-Dec is just as valid as July 2006, or Feb 1779, but who knew it was hiding in the data? ... various other surprises were found in years like 1803).

EWP update, was near 50 MM before yesterday's 7-10 MM likely addition, and 12z GFS looks to be adding 30 give or take, so it's staying in a range close to the 90 MM value for provisional scoring yet. (06z was closer to 95-100). CET is likely to peak around 8.5 by Friday, after that I see a rather chilly trend, if it were to average 6 C for last eight days, the 8.5 would fall to 7.9.

In this warm spell, one daily CET mean record (12.1 14th, replaces 11.5 1805), and two daily min records (9.4 14th and 9.7th 15) replacing records set in 1884 and 1957. No daily max records, those are now up around 17 C or higher.

EWP already near 50 MM and likely to add 40 at least, so will stay at 90 MM for provisional scoring (already posted). CET looks like a repeat of Feb's pattern of edging close to Mar record (9.2 1957) and falling back at end, but a colder trend at 12-16 days on GFS is never very reliable. More confident of a run towards 8.5 or even 9.0 in next ten days.

Yes, it should be 2017 and not 2018 for list, and I edited details on the highest CET. I reviewed other data in table and didn't find any others needing work, hoping it's accurate now.

I was reading online documents on CET site, and it looks like they will be pruning recent data on a regular basis, we may not actually be in the position we once thought in terms of no more revisions of posted data. We cannot be sure it will always look as it does now. But I do not see evidence of a desire to go way back and revise a lot of old data, perhaps I am missing a point.

Well, as there were months well into the 18 range back then (July 1783 was 18.8), I don't know how much we could assume the 17.9 of 1779 was "really" 18.2 or 18.4, but the catch is that the data for CET before 1900 is generally west-London suburban in origin and would run a bit warmer than CET was then running (if it had been running) ... so perhaps the "modern conditions" and the shift in grid cancel out and it's a real 17.9? I hope the proposed new data base isn't going to up the level of revision of the old data base but if it appears non-homogeneous then I suppose we have to accept it. I can't see how you would revise it region to region when differentials are not always the same from one setup to another. Could be a good opportunity to retire from this pursuit, my age is very suggestive of closing down the shop anyway. I suspect April 1775 and February 1779 could be getting shoved off the ship let's see if that's valid or not.

I just visited CET download site and saw a new notice about yet another revision of CET data scheduled for release later this month. Who knows what we will be dealing with for a data base after that ... but using v2.0.1.0 for now ... (and realizing Feb is shorter than March but taking an average of the two means) ... a lot of scorchers (but also 1903, 1961, 1998 etc) follow warmth in Feb-Mar ... Warmest Feb-Mar couplets on record ... all cases of average 6.7 + Rank ___ Year ___ FEB _ MAR ____ avg ______ warmest summer CET avg (graphical format) _ 01 ____ 1779 ___ 7.9 __ 7.9 ____ 7.9 __________ 17.9 July _ 02 ____ 1990 ___ 7.3 __ 8.3 ____ 7.8 __________18.0 Aug _t03 ____1961 ___ 6.9 __ 8.2 ____ 7.55 __________________ 15.4 Aug _t03 ____1997 ___ 6.7 __ 8.4 ____ 7.55 ______ 19.0 Aug _t05 ____1945 ___ 7.1 __ 7.9 ____ 7.5 _____________ 16.7 July _t05 ____1998 ___ 7.2 __ 7.8 ____ 7.5 _______________ 16.0 Aug _t05 ____2017 ___ 6.2 __ 8.8 ____ 7.5 ____________16.9 July _t08 ____1750 ___ 6.7 __ 8.2 ____ 7.45 ___________17.2 July _t08 ____2022 ___ 6.9 __ 8.0 ____ 7.45 ______ 18.7 Aug (and extremes July) _ 10 ____ 2019 ___ 6.9 __ 7.9 ____ 7.4 ___________ 17.6 July _ 11 ____ 2002 ___ 7.0 __ 7.6 ____ 7.3 ____________ 17.0 Aug _t12 ____1734 ___ 6.4 __ 8.1 ____ 7.25 ______________16.2 July & Aug _t12 ____1957 ___ 5.3 __ 9.2 ____ 7.25 ______________16.3 July _t14 ____1794 ___ 7.2 __ 7.0 ____ 7.1 __________18.1 July _t14 ____1903 ___ 7.1 __ 7.1 ____ 7.1 __________________ 15.3 July _t14 ____1938 ___ 5.1 __ 9.1 ____ 7.1 _______________16.3 Aug _ 17 ____ 1822 ___ 6.3 __ 7.8 ____ 7.05 ___________17.1 June _ 18 ____ 2014 ___ 6.3 __ 7.7 ____ 7.0 __________ 17.8 July _ 19 ____ 1815 ___ 6.5 __ 7.3 ____ 6.9 __________________ 15.3 Aug _t20 ____ 1872 ___ 6.9 __ 6.8 ____ 6.85 ___________17.1 July _t20 ____ 2000 ___ 6.2 __ 7.5 ____ 6.85 ____________16.7 Aug _t20 ____ 2011 ___ 6.5 __ 6.8 ____ 6.85 _________________15.5 Aug _t23 ____ 1989 ___ 6.0 __ 7.5 ____ 6.75 ________18.1 July _t23 ____ 2023 ___ 6.5 __ 7.0 ____ 6.75 ___________17.0 June, Sep _ 25 ____ 1871 ___ 6.1 __ 7.3 ____ 6.7 ____________17.2 Aug _t26 ____ 2007 ___ 6.0 __ 7.3 ____ 6.65 ________________ 15.5 Aug _t26 ____ 2020 ___ 6.5 __ 6.8 ____ 6.65 __________17.7 Aug (1920 avg 6.6, 14.4 June, a very poor summer; 1912 also avg 6.3) also fitting pattern before 1930 ... (1926 was 6.8, 6.3 (6.55) and _____________________ 17.1 July) (1868 was 6.3, 6.8 (6.55) and ______________ 18.2 July) (1859 was 5.7, 7.3 (6.5) and _______________ 18.3 July) (1846 was 6.4, 6.1 (6.25) and ______________ 18.2 June) (1826 was 6.4, 6.3 (6.35) and _______________17.9 July, also 19.5 late June-late July) ... 1869 was 7.5, 3.8, an exception to rule most mild Febs are followed by at least a mild-average march. (17.3 July) Not all hot summers are preceded by warm Febs into march, for example 1747, 1783, 1808, 1947, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1955, 1983, 1995 (only Feb was mild), 2006, 2013 and 2018. But it does seem like a loaded deck for summer warm spells, looking at list above. In cooler climate before 1900, trend is similar from a distribution perspective (mild Feb-mar back before 1900 often closer to 6.5). 1948 was near average in Feb (4.7) and mild in march (8.3), and avg was 6.5 ... summer generally cool except for 3-4 days of scorching heat at end of July.

EWP scoring (result is 111.5 mm) In table below, first rank is current contest rank, second rank was rank for winter season (results after Feb). Same logic applies at end of row to average error ranks. Everyone participating so far is given "consensus + 5 mm" errors for months they do not enter. In this case, consensus+5 is 33.5+5 = 38.5. Also in your scoring line, your forecast is followed by a rank based on result of 111.5 mm. This rank is your scoring level before late penalties. As you may already know, late forecasts are docked 0.30 points per late day (indicated in table below by ^ symbol). Identical forecasts are scored one-half scoring interval lower for each, so if you're in rank seven but identical forecast to rank six, your scoring level is actually 6.5 not 7 (etc for 3+ duplicates). Otherwise with 49 forecasts the scoring interval is 0.20 (10.00 to 0.40) allowing for a downward adjustment for wrong sign errors and range errors. (It is very similar to CET scoring except instead of getting extra points for accuracy, you lose extra points for inaccuracy, but the math works out similar). Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Mar _TOTAL _______ Mar _ Avg now (Feb/win)_fcst (rank)_FORECASTER ____EWP scoring (pts) __ error__ avg 4mo (Ranks, now and after Feb) _01 _ 02 ___ 90.0 (15)^__ Jeff C ________________7.07^__30.46 _____21.5 __ 36.53 mm _t4_ (8) ... _02 _ 03 ___ 88.0 (17) __ summer18 ___________6.77 __ 29.99 _____23.5 __ 32.68 mm _ 2 _ (2) ... _03 _ 05 ___ 91.6 (12) __ Weather26 ___________7.77 __ 29.90 _____ 19.9 __ 40.13 mm _12_ (16) ... _04 _ 10 ___129.0 (08) __ DR(S)NO _____________8.58 __ 29.36 _____17.5 __ 39.28 mm_ t9_ (15) ... _05 _ 04 ___ 85.0 (21) __ J 10 ___________________5.96 __ 28.59 _____ 26.5 __ 36.68 mm _ 6 _ (6) ... _06 _ 17 ___ 94.0 (08) __ Emmett Garland _____ 8.58 __ 27.07 _____ 17.5 __ 42.78 mm_ 17_ (23) ... _07 _ 09 ___ 81.0 (24) __ Feb1991blizzard______5.36 __ 26.22 _____ 30.5 __ 39.03 mm _ 8 _ (9) ... _08 _ 13 ___ 87.5 (20) __ snowray ______________6.17 __ 25.71 _____ 24.0 __ 39.28 mm _t9 _ (12) ... _09 _ 24 ___104.0 (02)__ virtualsphere ________ 9.80 __ 25.52 _______7.5 __ 39.43 mm _ 11 _ (22) ... _10 _ 23 ___ 95.0 (06) __Mr Maunder __________ 9.18 ___25.35 _____16.5 __ 46.53 mm_ 26 _ (33) ... _11 _ 16 ___ 88.0 (19)^__stewfox ______________6.27^__25.06 _____ 23.5 __ 35.48 mm _ 3 _ (4) ... _12 _ 25 ___ 95.1 (03) __ Polar Gael ____________ 9.58 __ 24.90 _____ 16.4 __ 45.80 mm_ 23 _ (31) ... _13 _ 01 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ noname_weather _____ --- --- __ 24.41 ____(38.5) __ 36.78 mm _ 7 _ (3) ... _14 _ 07 ___ 72.0 (35) __ Frigid _________________ 3.12 __ 24.05 _____ 39.5 __ 32.28 mm _ 1_ (1) ... _15 _ 08 ___ 72.0 (36) __ Don ___________________3.02 __ 23.94 _____39.5 __ 40.28 mm _13 _ (7) ... _16 _ 06 ___ 63.0 (42) __ godber 1 ______________1.64 __ 23.64 _____48.5 __ 42.03 mm _14 _ (5) ... (16.4)_(6.6)_ 67.3 (39.7)___1994-2023 average__2.16 __ 23.49 _____44.2 __44.43 mm _20.0_(12.2) ... _17 _ 20 ___ 82.0 (22) __ methuselah ___________ 5.76 __ 23.23 _____29.5 __ 47.93 mm _ 27_ (28) ... _18 _ 11 ___ 68.0 (39) __ February1978 _________ 2.30 __ 22.97 _____43.5 __ 43.53 mm_ 18 _ (11) ... _19 _ 14 ___ 76.5 (32) __Metwatch ______________ 3.72 __ 22.86 _____35.0 __ 42.67 mm_ 15_ (13) ... _20 _ 19 ___ 78.0 (28)__I remember Atlantic252__4.65 __22.77 _____33.5 __ 44.93 mm_ 22_ (18) ... (20.4)(11.4)__65.4 (41.2)__1991-2020 average__1.86 __ 21.95 _____ 46.1 __ 46.38 mm_ 24.4 _(14.9) ... _21 _ 21 ___ 77.0 (29) __ dancerwithwings _______4.35 __ 21.51 _____34.5 __ 52.28 mm_ t39_ (36) ... (21.2)(17.6) _71.5 (36.3) _ 1981-2010 average _ 2.88 __ 21.22 _____40.0 __ 48.18 mm_27.3_(22.8) ... (21.8)(22.7) _78.0 (27) ____ Consensus___________4.75 __ 20.97 _____33.5 __ 49.78 mm_32.5_(30.5) ... _22 _ 30 ___ 90.0 (13) __ Let It Snow! ____________ 7.57__ 20.75 _____21.5 __ 42.78 mm_ 16_ (t20) ... _23 _ 18 ___ 70.0 (37) __ jonboy _________________ 2.72 __ 20.94 _____41.5 __ 50.43 mm_ 35 _(t26) ... _24 _ 22 ___ 77.0 (30) __ Reef ____________________4.25 __ 20.62 _____34.5 __ 49.18 mm_t30 _ (29) ... _25 _ 35 ___ 94.0 (10)^__SteveB _________________ 8.08^__20.26 _____17.5 __ 52.78 mm_ 42 _ (58.) ... _26 _ 12 ___ 53.0 (48) __ WYorksWeather _______ 0.34 __ 19.92 _____ 58.5 __ 50.58 mm_ 36 _ (17) ... _27 _ 40 ___ 94.0 (09) __ Addicks Fan 1981 ______8.48 __ 19.51 _____ 17.5 __ 44.43 mm _20_ (t26) ... _28 _ 37 ___ 89.0 (16) __ Midlands Ice Age _______6.97 __ 19.20 _____ 22.5 __ 50.28 mm_ 34_(41) ... _29 _ 15 ___ --- --- ( --- ) __chilly milly _____________ --- ---__ 18.85 ____ (38.5)__ 44.03 mm_ 19_ (14) ... _30 _ 45 ___ 95.0 (07) __ SLEETY _________________ 9.08 ___18.36 _____16.5 __ 36.53 mm _ t4 _ (10) ... _31 _ 47 ___ 95.0 (05) __ Stationary Front _______ 9.28 ___18.33 _____16.5 __ 55.78 mm_ t51 _ (61) ... _32 _ 33 ___ 78.8 (26) __ Roger J Smith __________ 4.95 __ 17.56 _____32.7 __ 48.85 mm_ 29 _ (29) ... _33 _ 38 ___ 82.0 (23) __ rwtwm _________________5.56 __ 17.12 _____ 29.5 __ 54.03 mm_ 46 _ (52) ... _34 _ 44 ___ 90.0 (14) __ weatherforducks ______ 7.47 ___17.03 _____21.5 __ 49.53 mm_ 32 _ (38) ... _35 _ 32 ___ 77.0 (31) __ Mulzy __________________4.15 __ 16.99 _____ 34.5 __ 54.53 mm_ 47 _ (t46) ... _36 _ 28 ___ 74.0 (33) ___ summer blizzard ______3.52 __ 16.98 _____37.5 __ 55.78 mm _t51 _ (51) ... _37 _ 43 ___ 88.0 (18)^__seaside60 ______________6.37^__16.00 _____23.5 __ 53.78 mm _t43_ (t54) ... _38 _ 27 ___ 60.0 (44) __ The PIT _________________1.53 ___15.58 _____51.5 __ 59.03 mm_ 62_ (t48) ... _39 _ 41 ___ 78.0 (27) __summer8906 ___________4.75 ___14.63 _____33.5 __ 52.28 mm_t39 _(37) ... _40 _ 34 ___ 70.0 (38)^__davehsug ______________2.32^__ 14.62 _____41.5 __ 55.78 mm_ t51_ (43) ... (40.5)(25.9)_65.5 (38.7) __average of all data ____3.14 __ 14.43 _____46.0 __ 54.88 mm_ 47.3_ (34.8) _41 _ 26 ___--- --- (---) __KirkcaldyWeather ________--- ---___14.22 ____(38.5)__ 46.93 mm _24 _ (19) ... _42 _ 29 ___ --- --- (---) __ ScottD __________________ --- ---__ 13.42 ____(38.5) __ 49.18 mm _t30_ (25) ... _43 _ 31 ___ -- -- (---) __ moorlander _____________ -- -- __ 13.13 _____ (38.5) __ 48.53 mm_ 28 _ (24) ... _44 _ 36 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover ___ --- --- __12.30 ____(38.5)__ 47.03 mm _25_ (t20) ... _45 _ 48 ___ 72.5 (34) __ Bobd29 _________________ 3.32 ___11.68 _____39.0 __ 61.75 mm _66 _ (65) ... _46 _ 42 ___ 60.0 (45) __ daniel* __________________ 1.43 ___11.25 ____ 51.5 __ 62.78 mm_ 67 _ (60) ... _47 _ 39 __ -- -- ( --- ) __ Somerset girl _____________ --- ---__ 11.18 ____(38.5)__ 58.53 mm_ 61 _ (59) ... _48 _ 72 ___ 95.0 (04) __ syed2878 ________________ 9.38 ___ 9.87 _____16.5 __ 74.03 mm_ 73 _ (73) ... _49 _ 50 ___ 60.0 (42) __ Leo97t ___________________1.63 ___ 9.44 _____51.5 __ 67.78 mm _ 69 _ (67) ... _50 _(---) __110.0 (01)^^ _B87 _____________________ 9.40^^_9.40 ______ 1.5 __ 44.50 mm_ 21 _ (---) _ first entry ... _51 _ 46 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ____________________--- --- ___ 9.14 ____(38.5) __ 50.03 mm _ 33 _ (28) ... _52 _ 49 ___ --- --- (---) __ John88b ________________--- --- ___ 8.29 ____(38.5) __ 55.78 mm_ t51 _ (t48) ... _53 _ 57 ___ 67.0 (40) __ Weather Observer _______2.10 ___ 7.68 _____44.5 __ 67.93 mm _ 70 _ (69) ... _54 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __ jmp223 __________________--- --- ___ 7.08 ____(38.5) __ 51.78 mm_ 38 _ (32) ... _55 _ 52 __ --- --- (---) __ Matt Stoke ______________ --- --- ___ 6.30 ____(38.5) __ 52.28 mm_t39 _ (34) ... _56 _ 53 ___ 43.0 (49) __ summer shower _________ 0.00 ___ 6.25 _____68.5 __ 75.73 mm_ 74 _ (70) ... _57 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) ________ -- -- ___ 6.18 _____(38.5) __ 50.78 mm_ 37_ (30) ... _58 _ 55 ___ --- --- (---) __ Shaunado _______________--- --- ___ 5.64 _____(38.5) __ 61.20 mm_ 65 _ (64) ... _59 _ 56 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ____________ -- -- ___ 5.60 _____(38.5) __ 53.93 mm_ 45 _ (40) ... _60 _ 58 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- ___ 5.56 _____(38.5) __ 53.78 mm_t43 _ (39) ... _61 _ 59 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _______________ -- -- ___ 5.45 _____(38.5) __ 59.53 mm _ 63 _ (62) ... _62 _ 64 __ 66.0 (41) __shillitocettwo ______________1.90 ___ 5.24 _____45.5 ___ 73.13 mm _72 _ (71) ... _63 _ 73 __ 81.0 (25)^^__Wade ___________________4.56^^__4.96 _____30.5 ___ 72.28 mm_ 71 _ (66) ... _64 _ 60 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ____________ -- -- ___ 4.88 _____(38.5) __ 55.18 mm_ 48_ (44) ... _65 _ 61 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ____________ -- -- ___ 4.34 _____(38.5) __ 55.78 mm_t51_(t49) ... _66 _ 62 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 __________________ -- -- ___ 3.99 _____(38.5) __ 55.28 mm_ 49_(45) ... _67 _ 63 __ --- --- (---) __ snowblind ________________ -- -- ___ 3.67 _____(38.5) __ 55.58 mm _ 50_ (t46) ... _68 _ 65 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow ________ -- -- ___ 3.30 _____ (38.5) __ 57.03 mm_ 56 _ (53) ... _69 _ 66 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ______________ -- -- ___ 2.90 ____ (38.5) __ 57.53 mm_ t57_ (t54) ... _70 _ 70 __ 55.0 (46) __ Neil N ____________________ 0.75 ___ 2.59 _____ 56.5 __ 78.78 mm_ 75 _ (72) ... t71 _t67 __ --- --- (---) ___gazse9 ( -- ) _______________ -- -- ___ 2.28 ____ (38.5) __ 57.53 mm_t57_ (t54) ... t71 _t67 __ --- --- (---) __ catbrainz __________________-- -- ___ 2.28 ____ (38.5) __ 57.53 mm_ t57_ (t54) ... _73 _ 69 __ --- --- (---) __ Norrance _________________ -- -- ___ 2.04 _____(38.5) __ 66.28 mm_ 68 _ (68) ... _74 _ 71 __ --- --- (---) __ baddie ____________________--- ---___ 0.76 ____ (38.5)__ 60.20 mm_ 64_ (63) ... _75 _ --- __ 54.0 (47) __ sunny_vale ________________0.24^___0.24 ____ 57.5 ___ 58.50 mm_ 60_ (---) _ first entry ... note: Ranks for normals and consensus are in decimal form, indicating where they are located relative to integer ranks of contest entrants. Log of results (winter report for cross-reference to above) RANKS ____ FORECASTER __________________ POINTS ___________________ ERRORS (ranks) F _ J _ D _______________________________ D _ J _ F _ _ _ _Total ___________ D _ J _ F _ _ _ _ avg ___ ranks F J D note: winter ranks are Feb ranks 01_02_04 ___ noname_weather ____ 9.43_8.22_6.76__24.36 ______ 32.3_ 7.2 _69.1___36.20 mm _ 3 _ 1_ 4 02_05_14 ___ Jeff C _________________ 7.53_8.38_7.48 __23.39 ______ 51.3_ 7.2_66.1 ___41.53 mm _ 8 _9_ t14 03_13_28 ___ summer18 ___________ 4.88_8.88_9.46__23.22 ______ 73.3_ 4.8_29.1 ___35..73 mm_ 2_18_ t27 04_01_08 ___ J 10 __________________ 8.67_9.12_4.84__22.63 ______ 41.3_ 2.8_76.1 __ 40.07 mm _ 6 _3_ 8 05_10_30 ___ Weather26 ___________4.37_9.92_7.84__22.13 ______ 76.3 _1.2_63.1__46.87 mm_ 16_17_30 06_07_06 ___ godber 1 _____________9.14_6.20_6.66__22.00 ______ 37.3_13.2_69.1__39.87 mm _ 5_ 4_t5 (6.6)(4.7) 17.6) _ 1994-2023 average _ 6.86_9.33_5.14__21.33 ____ 55.0_ 2.4_76.1__44.50 mm _12.2_9.1_17.6 07_22_02 ___ Frigid ________________9.81_1.30_9.82__20.93 ______ 26.3_42.2_21.1__29.87 mm _ 1_t10_ 2 08_03_03 ___ Don __________________ 9.62_7.47_3.83__20.92 _____ 31.3_ 9.2_81.1__ 40.53 mm _ 7 _ 2 _ 3 09_06_09 ___ Feb1991blizzard _____ 8.48_8.48_5.32__20.86 _____ 42.3_10.2_73.1__41.87 mm _ 9 _6 _ 9 10_09_20 ___ DR(S)NO _____________ 6.38_8.30_6.10__20.78 _____ 61.3_ 7.2_71.1__46.53 mm _15_ t10_20 11_19_12 ___ February1978 _________7.91_4.02_8.74__20.67_____ 47.3_26.2_57.1__43.53 mm _11_14_12 (11.4)5.4)19.1)__1991-2020 average _6.55_9.23_4.31__20.09 ____57.7_ 3.0_78.7__46.47 mm_ 14.9_9.3_19.1 12_04_11 ___ WYorksWeather _______8.10_8.56_2.92__19.58 ____ 46.3_ 6.4_91.1 __47.93 mm _ 17_ 7_11 13_08_07 ___ snowray _______________ 8.86_6.26_4.42__19.54 ____ 39.8_15.2_78.1__44.37 mm_ 12 _ 8 _ 7 14_28_25 ___ Metwatch ______________5.38_4.66_9.10__19.14 ____ 66.3_23.2_46.1 __45.20 mm_ 13_29_25 15_26_10 ___ chilly milly _____________ 8.29_2.10_8.46__18.85 ____ 43.3_35.2_59.1 __45.87 mm_ 14_ 19_10 16_32_38 ___ stewfox _______________2.85_5.94_10.00__18.79 ____ 86.3_17.2_14.9 __39.47 mm_ 4 _t43_t38 17_25_33 __ Emmett Garland _______ 3.89_6.58_8.02__18.49 ____ 80.3_13.2_60.1 __ 51.20 mm_ 23_t33_t32 (17.6)8.7)22.4)__1981-2010 average___5.90_8.96_3.48__18.34 ___63.9_4.2_84.6___50.90 mm _22.8_ 9.9_ 22.4 18 _20_43 __ jonboy _________________ 1.90_9.38_6.94__18.22 ____ 90.3_ 1.8_68.1 __53.40 mm_ t26_31_43 19_30_13 __ I remember Atlantic252__7.72_1.85_8.56__18.12____ 49.3_37.8_59.1__48.73 mm_ 18_27_13 20_12_27 __ methuselah _____________ 4.98_9.20_3.29__17.47 ____ 73.3_ 2.8_86.1 __54.07 mm _ 28_16_t27 21_24_49 __ dancerwithwings _______0.76_10.00_6.40__17.16 ____102.3_1.2_71.1__58.20 mm_ 36_t43_49 22_18_29 ___ Reef ____________________ 4.56_7.76_4.05__16.37 _____ 74.3_ 8.8_79.1 __54.07 mm_ 29_22_29 (22.7)22.4)27) ___ Consensus_________ 4.98_6.10_5.14__16.22 _____ 73.3_16.2_76.1__ 55.20 mm_30.5_29_27 23_37_44 ___ Mr Maunder ___________ 1.71_6.10_8.36__16.17 _____ 94.3_16.2_59.1__ 56.53 mm_ 33 _t50_44 24_11_01 ___ virtualsphere __________10.00_4.24_1.48__15.72 _____ 25.3_25.8_99.1__ 50.07 mm _ 22_ 5_ 1 25_34_23 ___ Polar Gael ______________ 5.78_2.42_7.12__15.32 _____64.8_34.9_67.1__ 55.60 mm _ 31 _39_23 (25.9)19.9)26.5)_ average of all data __ 5.09_6.20_3.34__14.63 _____72.2_15.6_85.6__ 57.80 mm_ 34.8_27.8_26.5 26_39_--- ___ KirkcaldyWeather ______ --- _5.30_8.92 ___14.22 _____ 78.3_20.6_50.3__ 49.73 mm _19_38_--- 27_16_36 ___ The PIT _________________ 3.41_9.52_1.12__14.05 _____81.3_ 2.2_101.1__61.53 mm_t48_ t23_t34 28_21_40 ___ summer blizzard _______ 2.47_8.71_2.28__13,46 _____87.3_ 6.2_92.1 __ 61.87 mm_ 51_t33_40 29_35_--- ___ ScottD ___________________ ---_ 7.92_ 5.50__13.42 _____78.3_ 7.8_72.1__ 52.73 mm _25_25_ --- 30_14_19 ___ Let It Snow! ______________6.58_6.60_---__13.18 _____ 57.3_11.2_ 81.1__ 49.87 mm_t20_t10_ 19 31_15_24 ___ moorlander _____________ 5.58_7.55_ ---__13.13 _____ 65.3_ 9.2_81.1__ 51.87 mm_ 24_15_ 24 32_29_26 ___ Mulzy ____________________5.18_4.84_2.82__12.84 _____71.3_21.2_91.1__61.20 mm_ t46_32_26 33_59_45 ___Roger J Smith ____________1.52_1.46_9.64 __12.62 _____96.6_40.9_25.3__ 54.27 mm_ 29_63_45 34_39_17 ___ davehsug _______________ 6.96_0.40_4.94__12.30 _____53.3_52.2_76.1 __60.53 mm_ 43 _t47_17 35_52_47 ___ SteveB __________________ 1.14_3.38_7.66 __12.18 _____98.3_30.2_65.1 __64.53 mm_ 58 _t58_47 36_17_05 ___prolongedSnowLover ____9.24_3.06_ --- __ 12.30 ______37.3_31.2_81.1__ 49.87 mm_t20_ t10 _t05 37_36_18 ___ Midlands Ice Age ________6.77_1.14_4.32__12.23 ______56.3_44.2_78.1__59.53 mm_ 41_40_18 38_27_22 ___ rwtwm ___________________5.98_4.28_1.30__11.56 _____ 63.3_23.2_100.1__62.20 mm_52_26_22 39_57_37 __ Somerset girl _____________ 3.04_0.76_7.40__11.18 _____ 84.3_44.2_66.1__64.87 mm_ 59_t58_37 40_23_15 ___ Addicks Fan 1981 ________ 7.43_3.60_ ---__11.03 _____ 51.3_27.8_81.1__53.40 mm _t26_20_t14 41_42_ --- ___ summer8906 ____________ ---- _ 6.40_3.48__ 9.88 ______ 78.3_12.8_84.6__58.53 mm_ 37_30_ --- 42_41_39 ___ daniel* ___________________2.75_3.78_3.29__ 9.82 _____ 86.3_27.2_86.1__66.53 mm_ 60_53_t38 43_38_16 ___ seaside60 ________________ 7.03_0.58_2.02__ 9.63 _____ 51.3_45.2_95.1__63.87 mm _t54_37_t14 44_56_ --- __ weatherforducks __________---- _3.86_5.70__ 9.56 _____ 78.3_27.2_71.1 __58.87 mm_ 38_t47_ ---- 45_---_--- __ SLEETY _____________________---- _ ---- _ 9.28 __9.28 ______78.3_21.2_30.1 __ 43.20 mm_ 10_ ----_ ---- 46_31_ --- ___Tillys ______________________ --- 9.14__ --- ___ 9.14 ______ 78.3_ 2.2_ 81.1 __ 53.87 mm _28_21_---- 47_55_46 ___Stationary Front _________ 1.33_2.58__5.04__8.95 ______97.3_33.2_76.1 __68.87 mm_ 61_60_46 48_45_31 ___ Bobd29 __________________4.18_1.62_2.56__ 8.36 _____ 78.3_38.2_91.5 __ 69.33 mm _65_54_31 49_33_34 ___ John88b __________________3.61_4.68_ --- ___8.29 _____ 81.3_22.2_81.1__ 61.53 mm_ t48 _t43_t34 50_63_48 ___ Leo97t ___________________0.96_0.66_6.20__ 7.81_____101.3_47.2_71.1__ 73.20 mm _ 67_65_48 51 _ 51 ___ jmp223 _____________________ --- __7.08_ ---- __ 7.08 _____ 78.3_ 9.2_81.1 __ 56.20 mm _32_28_ ---- 52_---_--- __ Matt Stoke ________________ --- _ --- _ 6.30 ___ 6.30 ______78.3_21.2_71.1 __ 56.87 mm_ 34 _----_---- 53_43_50 ___ summer shower ________ 0.57_5.68_0.00___6.25_____105.3_17.8_111.1__78.13 mm_ 70_57_50 54_44_21 ___ Wold Topper ____________ 6.18_ ---- _---- ___6.18 _____ 62.3_21.2_81.1 __ 54.87 mm _ 30_t23_21 55_64_ ----___ Shaunado _______________---- _0.50_ 5.14___5.64 _____ 78.3_51.9_76.1__ 68.77 mm_ 64_61_---- 56_46_ --- ___ summer of 95 __________ -- -- __5.60_---- ___5.60 _____ 78.3_17.8_81.1 __ 59.07 mm_ 40_36_---- 57_50_42 ___Weather Observer ________2.18_2.82_0.58___5.58 _____89.3_32.2_106.1__75.87 mm _ 69_55_t41 58_48_---- ___Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- __5.56 _---- ___5.56 _____78.3_17.2_81.1__ 58.87 mm _ 39_35_---- 59_47_35 ___Earthshine ________________ -- -- __ 5.45_ --- __ 5.45 _____ 78.3_17.2_81.1 __ 66.53 mm _ 62_56_t34 60_51_----___EastLancsRain ______________-- -- __ 4.88 _ ---__ 4.88 _____ 78.3_22.8_81.1__ 60.73 mm_ 44_41_---- 61_53_---- ___harveyslugger _____________ -- -- __ 4.34 _ ---__ 4.34 _____ 78.3_25.2_81.1__ 61.53 mm_t49_t43_---- 62_54_32 ___Alexis J9 ____________________ 3.99_ ---- __ ----__ 3.99 _____ 80.3_21.2_ 81.1 __60.87 mm_ 45_42_t32 63_---_ --- ___ snowblind _________________ -- -- _ -- -- _ 3.67__ 3.67 _____ 78.3_21.2_84.1 __61.20 mm _ t46_ ----_ ---- 64_61_51 __ shillitocettwo _______________0.38_2.02_0.94___ 3.34 _____110.3_34.8_102.1__82.40 mm _71_64_51 65_58_--- __ sukayuonsensnow __________ -- -- _ 3.30_---- ___ 3.30 _____ 78.3_30.2_81.1 __ 63.20 mm_ 53_49_---- 66_60_ --- __ Climate Man _______________ -- -- ___ 2.90_----___ 2.90_____ 78.3_32.3_81.1 __ 63.87 mm_t54_t50_---- t67_62_41 __gazse9 _____________________ 2.28 _ -- -- _ -- ---__ 2.28 _____ 89.3_21.2_81.1 __ 63.87 mm_t54_t50_t41 t67 _--- _--- __catbrainz __________________ ---- _ ---- _ 2.28 ___ 2.28 ______ 78.3_21.2_92.1 __63.87 mm_ t54_----_----- 69_65_ ---- __ Norrance ________________ -- --__ 0.30 _ 1.74 __ 2.04 _____ 78.3_52.2_96.1 __75.53 mm_ 68 _62_---- 70_67_53 __ Neil N _____________________0.00 _---- _1.84 __ 1.84 __140.3_21.2_96.1 __ 85.87 mm_ 72_66_53 71_---_--- __ baddie ____________________ ---- _ ---- _ 0.76 ___ 0.76 __78.3_21.2_102.8__ 67.43 mm_ 63_----_---- 72_66_52 __ syed2878 _________________0.19_0.00_0.30 ___ 0.49 __111.3_54.2_111.1__93.20 mm_ 73_67_52 73_---_--- ___Wade _____________________ ---- _ ----_ 0.40 ___ 0.40 ____78.3_21.2_111.1 __ 86.20 mm_ 66_----_---- Table of forecasts for March 2024 ... EWP with range and sign errors indicated (scoring int's before applying are 0.20) 10.0 _ 95.1 __ Polar Gael (19) __________________129.0 __ DR(S)NO 21 9.3 _ --- --- __ BlueSkies_do_I_see (10) _________110.0 __ B87^^ 2 8.4 _ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (23) _____________104.0 __ virtualsphere 1 8.3 _ 94.0 __ Emmett Garland (37) _____________ 95.1 __ Polar Gael 3 8.2 _ 82.0 __ Methuselah ( 2 ) __________________ 95.0 __ syed2878 4 8.2 _ 94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (38) ____________ 95.0 __ Stationary Front 5 8.1 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 9 ) _______________ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder 6 8.0 _ 60.0 __ The PIT (22) _______________________95.0 __ SLEETY 7 7.9 _ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (24) _____________94.0 __ Emmett Garland 8 7.9 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (25) _________________94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 9 7.9 _ 95.0 __ Stationary Front (28) _____________ 94.0 __ SteveB^ 10 7.9 _ 72.0 __ Don (41) __________________________ 91.6 __ Weather26 11 7.8 _ 81.0 __ feb1991blizzard (36) ______________90.0 __ Let It Snow! 12 7.8 _ 87.5 __ snowray (39) ______________________90.0 __ weatherforducks 13 7.8 _ 54.0 __ sunny_vale (L1-5) _________________90.0 __ Jeff C^ 14 7.7 _ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings (13) _____________89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age 15 7.7 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun (29) _________________88.0 __ summer18 16 7.7 _ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder (32) _________________ 88.0 __ seaside60^ 17 7.6 _ 77.0 __ Reef (18) __________________________88.0 __ stewfox^ 18 7.6 _ 85.0 __ J 10 (43) ___________________________87.5 __ snowray 19 7.5 _ 78.0 __ summer8906 ( 5 ) _________________85.0 __ J 10 20 7.5 _ --- --- __ Damianslaw (40) _________________ 82.0 __ Methuselah 22 7.4 _ 78.8 __ Roger J Smith (26) _________________82.0 __ rwtwm 23 7.4 _ 88.0 __ stewfox (L1-6) _____________________81.0 __ feb1991blizzard 24 7.3 _ 78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 (16) _____ 81.0 __ Wade^^ 25 7.3 _ 74.0 __ summer blizzard (15) _____________78.8 __ Roger J Smith 26 7.3 _ 91.6 __ Weather26 (35) ___________________ 78.0 __ summer8906 27 7.2 _ 78.0 __ consensus _________________________ 78.0 __ consensus 27 7.2 _ 90.0 __ Let It Snow! ( 3 ) ___________________78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 28 7.2 _ 72.0 __ Frigid (21) _________________________ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings 29 7.2 _ 77.0 __ Mulzy (30) _________________________ 77.0 __ Reef 30 7.2 _ 89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (33) ______________77.0 __ Mulzy 31 7.1 _ 66.0 __ shillitocettwo (11) _________________ 76.5 __ Metwatch 32 7.1 _ 67.0 __ Weather Observer (31) ____________74.0 __ summer blizzard 33 7.1 _ 88.0 __ seaside60 (L1-2) ___________________72.5 __ bobd 34 7.0 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (27) _____________ 72.0 __ Frigid 35 6.9 _ 72.5 __ bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________________ 72.0 __ Don 36 6.9 _129.0__ DR(S)NO (12) _____________________ 71.5 __ 1981-2010 36.2 6.9 _110.0__ B87 (L2-1) ________________________ 70.0 __ jonboy 37 6.8 _ 95.0 __ syed2878 (17) _____________________70.0 __ davehsug^ 38 6.8 _ 68.0 __ February1978 (44) ________________ 68.0 __ February1978 39 6.7 _ 65.4 __ mean 1991-2020 __________________ 67.3 __ 1994-2023 39.7 6.7 _ 67.3 __ mean 1994-2023 __________________67.0 __ Weather Observer 40 6.7 _ 88.0 __ summer18 ( 6 ) ____________________66.0 __ shillitocettwo 41 6.7 _ 60.0 __ Leo97t ( 4 ) ________________________65.4 __ 1991-2020 41.2 6.7 _ 94.0 __ SteveB (L1-4) ______________________63.0 __ Godber 1 (-.01) 42 6.6 _ 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010 __________________61.6___1766-2023 42.5 6.6 _104.0__ virtualsphere ( 7 ) _________________60.0 __ Leo97t (-.02) 43 6.6 _ 82.0 __ rwtwm (20) _______________________ 60.0 __ The PIT (-.02) 44 6.5 _ 76.5 __ Metwatch (47) ____________________ 60.0 __ daniel* (-.02) 45 6.4 _ 70.0 __ jonboy (14) _______________________ 55.0 __ Neil N (-.05) 46 6.3 _ 63.0 __ Godber 1 (46) ____________________ 54.0 __ sunny_vale^ (-.06) 47 6.3 _ 70.0 __ davehsug (L1-3) __________________ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (-.06) 48 6.1 _ 55.0 __ Neil N ( 8 ) ________________________ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (-.06) 49 6.0 _ 81.0 __ Wade (L2-2) _______________________ (six CET only) 5.4 _ 60.0 __ daniel* (45) _______________________ 5.4 _ 61.6 __ mean 1766-2023 ________________ 4.9 _ 95.0 __ SLEETY (34) _______________________ 4.5 _ 90.0 __ Jeff C ( L1-1 ) ______________________ 4.1 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (42) _________________ _________________________ 47 on time CET and 41 on time EWP forecasts, both added 8 late forecasts (so far) total 55 CET, 49 EWP (^late day)

Welcome back CET updates, so looking at 12z GFS the CET would increase quite rapidly to around 8.5 C at a peak on 21st and would then fall sharply for five or six days (average only around 4-5 C) to reach 7.6 by 27th. EWP has not updated since 7th but two days were basically dry and yesterday around 8 mm additional so we're at about 27 mm now, the projection is quite wet, 80 mm more by 27th, would place us near 110 mm and once again above all but two of our forecasts (B87 at 110, DR(S)NO at 129 mm).

Third day with no updates for CET, current estimate is 5.6 or 5.7 C for nine days. Today's average around 7.5 would see that increasing to about 5.9 or 6.0 C.

Just noting 00z GFS is warmer (considerably) towards 18-25 march and would give a much higher outcome (around 7.5 or even 8 C).

Once again no CET update today, current estimate is around 5.3 or 5.4 C (to 8th). GFS says we rise gradually to about 6.5 by around 16th or 17th then fall back into high 5 possibly as it turns quite chilly after that. EWP projections are now closer to 70 mm. If we were 5.5 to 6.0 by 25th it would be likely a finish in the 6s as it would require an average of 11.1 C to get from 6.0 to 7.0 in the six days left.

No CET update available today, would say it could be 5.2 C after a 6 C average yesterday.

Don, if the GFS is anywhere close to accurate on trends, we will be nowhere near 7 C by 23rd, in fact we could be at or below 6.0, it looks relatively cool almost every day other than a few milder days around 15-18. If CET is 6.0 C on 23rd, even a warm 12 C last week would leave the outcome near 7.8, so it would need to turn near-record warm to avoid finishing lower. EWP is around 19 mm to today, looks to add about 40 mm so a near average 60 mm by 23rd.

You have perhaps noticed that the CET did not update today, no report for 5th on site; I estimate it at around 4.7 or 4.8 C now with yesterday probably a little above 7 C. Today won't move off that very far as the mins were lower and possibly below -1, the max likely 11 or 12. Keeping an eye on Feb data just in case any revisions creep in, none detected so far.

Table value of 151.1 mm for February will only result in slight changes to scoring tables (average errors will be adjusted, points are not going to change). Revisions to Dec 2023 (now 161.5 and Jan 2024 97.0 have added 0.6 to winter EWP total, now at 409.6 mm, and 2023 total, now at 1194.0 mm; each one edges closer to a value just above them in tables but no change in ranks. Tables earlier in thread requiring edits will be adjusted.

Combined scoring report CET and EWP (winter 2023-2024) For a few forecasters only entering CET, "combined" rank is CET rank only and appears in a second column. The number beside forecaster name indicates number of contests entered. This only appears if they entered 1 or 2. Ranking in table is based on average of CET and EWP contest ranks (fourth col). Note only points totals are compared, and CET points can be a lot higher than EWP points for 1/3 entrants (as part of points total based on averages). RANK __ CET_EWP___ avg ___ FORECASTER _________________CET only _ FORECASTER _ 01 _____05 _ 01 ____ 03.0 __ noname_weather _ 02 _____03 _ 09 ____ 06.0 __ Feb1991blizzard _ 03 _____11 _ 08 ____ 09.5 __ Don ___________________________ 09 __ Typhoon John _ 04 _____01 _ 19 ____ 10.0 __ I remember Atlantic252 _ 05 _____06 _ 15 ____ 10.5 __ chilly milly _ 06 _____10 _ 13 ____ 11.5 __ snowray _ 07 _____t17 _07 ____ 12.0 __ Frigid _t08 _____07 _ 21 ____ 14.0 __ dancerwithwings _t08 _____16 _ 12 ____ 14.0 __ WYorksWeather _t10 _____08 _ 22 ____ 15.0 __ Reef _t10 _____27 _ 03 ____ 15.0 __ summer18 _ 12 _____21 _ 11 ____ 16.0 __ February1978 _ 13 _____33 _ 04 ____ 18.5 __ J 10 _ 14 _____15 _ 23 ____ 19.0 __Mr Maunder _t15 _____04 _ 38 ____ 21.0 __ rwtwm _t15 _____28 _ 14 ____ 21.0 __ Metwatch _t17 _____26 _ 20 ____ 23.0 __ methuselah _t17 _____41 _ 05 ____ 23.0 __ Weather26 _________________ 22 __ Summer Sun _ 19 _____13 _ 34 ____ 23.5 __ davehsug _ 20 _____20 _ 31 ____ 25.5 __ moorlander (2) _ 21 _____23 _ 35 ____ 29.0 __ SteveB _t22 _____14 _ 45 ____ 29.5 __ SLEETY (1) _t22 _____30 _ 29 ____ 29.5 __ ScottD (2) _ 24 _____36 _ 27 ____ 31.5 __ The PIT _t25 _____12 _ 53 ____ 32.5 __ summer shower ___________ 32 __ Froze were the days (1) _t25 _____49 _ 16 ____ 32.5 __ stewfox _ 27 _____56 _ 10 ____ 33.0 __ DR(S)NO _ 28 _____40 _ 28 ____ 34.0 __ summer blizzard _ 29 _____45 _ 24 ____ 34.5 __ virtualsphere _ 30 _____54 _ 17 ____ 35.5 __ Emmett Garland _ 31 _____31 _ 42 ____ 36.5 __ summer8906 (2) _t32 _____02 _ 72 ____ 37.0 __ syed2878 _t32 ____t17 _ 57 ____ 37.0 __ Weather Observer _t32 _____72 _ 02 ____ 37.0 __ Jeff C _ 35 _____24 _ 52 ____ 38.0 __ Matt Stoke (1) _t36 _____38 _ 40 ____ 39.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (2) _t36 _____39 _ 39 ____ 39.0 __ Somerset girl _t38 _____29 _ 51 ____ 40.0 __ jmp223 (1) _t38 _____47 _ 33 ____ 40.0 __ Roger J Smith _t40 _____63 _ 18 ____ 40.5 ___jonboy _t40_____75 _ 06 ____ 40.5 __ godber1 _ 42 _____60 _ 25 ____ 42.5 __ Polar Gael_____________________ 42 __ Mark Bayley _ 43 _____50 _ 37 ____ 43.5 __ Midlands Ice Age _ 44 _____25 _ 64 ____ 44.5 __ shillitocettwo _ 45 _____46 _ 44 ____ 45.0 __ weatherforducks (2) _ 46 _____19 _ 73 ____ 46.0 __ Wade (1) _ 47 _____35 _ 58 ____ 46.5 __ Rob79812010 (1) _ 48 _____53 _ 43 ____ 48.0 __ seaside60 _ 49 _____66 _ 32 ____ 49.0 __ Mulzy _t50 _____43 _ 56 ____ 49.5 __ summer of 95 (1) _t50 _____t51_ 48 ____ 49.5 __ Bobd29 _ 52 _____37 _ 63 ____ 50.0 __ snowblind (1) _t53 _____34 _ 69 ____ 51.5 __ Norrance (2) _t53 _____62 _ 41 ____ 51.5 __ daniel* _ 55 _____54 _ 50 ____ 52.0 __ Leo97t _ 56 _____79 _ 26 ____ 52.5 __ KirkcaldyWeather (2) _t57 _____59 _ 47 ____ 53.0 __ Stationary Front _t57 _____76 _ 30 ____ 53.0 __ Let It Snow! (1) _ 59 _____48 _ 60 ____ 54.0 __ EastLancsRain _t60 _____44 _ 66 ____ 55.0 __ Climate Man (1) ________________ 61 __ damianslaw _t60 _____t51_ 59 ____ 55.0 __ Earthshine (2) _t60 _____64 _ 46 ____ 55.0 __ Tillys (1) _t60 _____65 _ 55 ____ 55.0 __ Shaunado (2) _ 64 _____77 _ 36 ____ 56.5 __ prolongedSnowLover (now "It never snows in Windsor") (2) _ 65 _____67 _ 49 ____ 58.0 __ John88b (2) _ 66 _____57 _ 61 ____ 59.0 __ harveyslugger (1) _ 67 _____68 _54 ____ 61.0 __ Wold Topper (1) _ 68 _____58 _t67____ 62.5 __ catbrainz (1) _ 69 _____73 _62 ____ 67.5 __ Alexis J9 (1) _t70 _____69 _t67 ____68.0 __ gazse9 (1) ______________________ 70 __ Kentish Man _t70 _____71 _65 ____ 68.0 __ sukayuonsensnow (1) _ 72 _____74 _ 70 ____ 72.0 __ Neil N (2) _ 73 _____78 _ 71 ____ 74.5 __ baddie (1) (79 forecasters are ranked for CET, 73 for EWP and combined)

Final EWP scoring report (note: missed mo. error is consensus + 5 in italics _ it is 81.1 mm for Feb ... in contest year, a maximum of five missed mo's are acceptable before ranking discontinued) Note _ ranks are also "winter 2023-24" ranks and will be preserved as such in next update. Updated scoring for EWP DEC 2023 - FEB 2024 __ Annual and Winter Seasonal _ based on 151.1 mm _ Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Feb _TOTAL _______ Feb _ Avg now_(Jan)_fcst (rank) _ FORECASTER __________EWP scoring (pts) __error__ avg 3mo (Ranks, now and (after Jan) _01 _ 02 ___ 82.0 (19) __ noname_weather _____ 6.76__ 24.41 _____ 69.1 __ 36.20 mm _ 3 _ (1) _02 _ 05 ___ 85.0 (15) __ Jeff C ( 8 ) ______________ 7.48 __ 23.39 ____ 66.1 __ 41.53 mm _ 8_ (9) _03 _ 13 ___122.0 (04) __ summer18 ____________9.46 __ 23.22 _____29.1 __ 35.73 mm _ 2 _ (18.) _04 _ 01 ___ 75.0 (31) __ J 10 ____________________ 4.84__ 22.63 _____ 76.1 __ 40.07 mm _ 6 _ (3) _05 _ 10 ___ 88.0 (13) __ Weather26 ____________ 7.84 __ 22.13 _____ 63.1 __ 46.87 mm_ 16 _ (17) _06 _ 07 ___ 82.0 (20) __ godber 1 _______________6.66 __ 22.00 _____ 69.1 __ 39.87 mm _ 5 _ (4) (6.6) _(4.7)_ 75.0 (28) ____1994-2023 average ___ 5.14 __ 21.33 _____76.1 __ 44.50 mm _12.2_(8.9) _07 _ 22 ___130.0 (02)__ Frigid ___________________9.82 __ 20.93 _____21.1 __ 29.87 mm _ 1_ (t10) _08 _ 03 ___ 70.0 (35) __ Don ____________________ 3.83 __ 20.92 _____ 81.1 __ 40.53 mm _ 7 _(2) _09 _ 06 ___ 78.0 (27) __ Feb1991blizzard _______ 5.32 __ 20.86 _____ 73.1 __ 41.87 mm _ 9_ (6) _10 _ 09 ___ 80.0 (24) __ DR(S)NO ( 43 ) __________6.10 __ 20.78 _____ 71.1 __ 46.53 mm_ 15 _ (t10) _11 _ 19 ___ 94.0 (08) __ February1978 __________8.74 __ 20.67 _____ 57.1 __ 43.53 mm_ 11 _ (14) (11.4)( 5.4)__72.4 (33.4) __1991-2020 average __4.31 __20.09 _____ 78.7 __ 46.47 mm_ 14.9 _ (19.1) _12 _ 04 ___ 60.0 (40) __ WYorksWeather _______ 2.92 __ 19.58 _____ 91.1 __ 47.93 mm _ 17 _ (7) _13 _ 08 ___ 73.0 (32) __ snowray _______________ 4.42 __ 19.54 _____ 78.1 __ 44.37 mm _ 12 _ (8.) _14 _ 28 ___105.0 (06) __Metwatch ______________9.10 __ 19.14 _____ 46.1 __ 45.20 mm_ 13_ (29) _15 _ 26 ___ 92.0 (10) __ chilly milly ______________8.46 __ 18.85 _____59.1 __ 45.87 mm_ 14_ (19) _16 _ 32 ___166.0 (01) __ stewfox ______________10.00 __ 18.79 _____14.9 __ 39.47 mm_ 4 _ (t43) _17 _ 25 ___ 91.0 (12) __ Emmett Garland ________8.02 __ 18.49 _____ 60.1 __ 51.20 mm_ 23 _ (t33) _18 _ 20 ___ 83.0 (18) __ jonboy __________________6.94 __ 18.22 _____ 68.1 __ 53.40 mm_ t26 _ (31) (18.6)( 8.7)__ 66.5 (37) ___1981-2010 average ___3.48 __ 18.34 _____ 84.6 __ 50.90 mm _22.8_ (9.9) _19 _ 30 ___ 92.0 (09)__I remember Atlantic252 __8.56 __18.12 _____ 59.1 __ 48.73 mm_ 18_ (27) _20 _ 12 ___ 65.0 (38) __ methuselah _____________3.29 __ 17.47 _____ 86.1 __ 54.07 mm _ 28 _ (16) _21 _ 24 ___ 80.0 (21) __ dancerwithwings ________6.40 __ 17.16 _____ 71.1 __ 58.20 mm_ 36 _ (t43) (21.9)(22.4) _75.0 (28) ____ Consensus___________ 5.14 __ 16.22 _____ 76.1 __ 55.20 mm_30.5_(29) _22 _ 18 ___ 72.0 (34) __ Reef ____________________ 4.05 __ 16.37 _____ 79.1 __ 54.07 mm_ 29 _ (22) _23 _ 37 ___ 92.0 (11) __Mr Maunder ____________ 8.36 __ 16.17 _____ 59.1 __ 56.53 mm_ 33 _ (t50) _24 _ 11 ___ 52.0 (48) __ virtualsphere ___________ 1.48 __ 15.72 _____ 99.1 __ 50.07 mm _ 22 _ (5) _25 _ 34 ___ 84.0 (17) __ Polar Gael ______________ 7.12 __ 15.32 _____ 67.1 __ 55.60 mm _ 31 _ (39) (25.9)(19.9)_65.5 (37.7) __average of all data ____ 3.34 __ 14.63 _____ 85.6 __ 57.80 mm_ 34.8 _ (27.8) _26 _ 49 ___100.8 (06) __ KirkcaldyWeather ______8.92 ___14.22 _____50.3 __ 49.73 mm _19 _ (38) _27 _ 16 ___ 50.0 (50) __ The PIT _________________ 1.12 __ 14.05 _____101.1 __ 61.53 mm_t48_ (t23) _28 _ 21 ___ 59.0 (44) ___ summer blizzard ______ 2.28 __ 13,46 _____ 92.1 __ 61.87 mm_ 51 _ (t33) _29 _ 35 ___ 79.0 (26) __ ScottD __________________ 5.50 __ 13.42 _____ 72.1 __ 52.73 mm _ 25_ (25) _30 _ 14 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ Let It Snow! _______________ --- __ 13.18 _____ (81.1)__ 49.87 mm_ t20_ (t10) _31_ 15 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ moorlander _______________ --- __ 13.13 _____(81.1)___ 51.87 mm_ 24 _ (15) _32 _ 29 ___ 60.0 (41) __ Mulzy (L1-13) ____________2.82 __ 12.84 _____91.1 __ 61.20 mm_ t46 _ (32) _33 _ 59 ___125.8 (03)__ Roger J Smith ___________ 9.64 __ 12.62 _____25.3 __ 54.27 mm_ 29 _ (63) _34 _ 39 ___ 75.0 (30) __ davehsug _______________ 4.94 __ 12.30 _____ 76.1 __ 60.53 mm_ 43 _ (t47) _35 _ 52 ___ 86.0 (14) __ SteveB __________________ 7.66 __ 12.18 _____ 65.1 __ 64.53 mm_ 58 _ (t58.) _36 _ 17 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover _____ --- __ 12.30 _____(81.1)__ 49.87 mm_t20_ (t10) _37_ 36 ___ 73.0 (33) __ Midlands Ice Age _________4.32 __ 12.23 _____ 78.1 __ 59.53 mm_ 41_(40) _38 _ 27 ___ 51.0 (49) __ rwtwm ___________________1.30 __ 11.56 _____100.1 __ 62.20 mm_ 52 _ (26) _39 _ 57 __ 85.0 (16) __ Somerset girl _____________ 7.40 __ 11.18 _____ 66.1 __ 64.87 mm_ 59 _ (t58.) _40 _ 23 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ Addicks Fan 1981 __________ --- __ 11.03 _____(81.1) __ 53.40 mm _t26_ (20) _41 _ 41 ___ 65.0 (39) __ daniel* ___________________ 3.29 ___ 9.82 _____ 86.1 __ 66.53 mm_ 60 _ (53) _42 _ 42 ___ 66.5 (37) __summer8906 ______________3.48 ___ 9.88 _____ 84.6 __ 58.53 mm_ 37 _ (30) _43 _ 38 ___ 56.0 (45) __ seaside60 ________________ 2.02 ___ 9.63 _____ 95.1 __ 63.87 mm _t54 _ (37) _44 _ 56 __ 80.0 (25) __ weatherforducks __________5.70 ___ 9.56 _____ 71.1 __ 58.87 mm_ 38 _ (t47) _45 _(---) __121.0 (05) __ SLEETY ___________________ 9.28 ___ 9.28 ______30.1 __ 43.20 mm_ 10_ (---) _46 _ 31 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ________________________ --- ___ 9.14 ____ (81.1) __53.87 mm _ 28 _ (21) _47 _ 55 ___ 75.0 (29) __ Stationary Front ( 51 ) _____5.04 ___ 8.95 _____ 76.1 __ 68.87 mm_ 61 _ (60) _48 _ 45 ___ 59.6 (42) __ Bobd29 ____________________2.56 ___ 8.36 _____ 91.5 __ 69.33 mm _65 _ (31) _49 _ 33 ___ --- --- (---) __ John88b ____________________ --- ___ 8.29 _____ (81.1) __ 61.53 mm_ t48 _ (t43) _50 _ 63 ___ 80.0 (23) __ Leo97t _____________________6.20 ___ 7.81 _____ 71.1 __ 73.20 mm _ 67 _ (65) _51 _ 40 ___ --- --- (--- __ jmp223 ______________________ --- ___ 7.08 _____ (81.1) __ 56.20 mm _32 _ (28 ) _52 _(---) __ 80.0 (22) __ Matt Stoke ________________ 6.30 ___ 6.30 _____ 71.1 __ 56.87 mm_ 34 _ (---) _53 _ 43 ___ 40.0 (56) __ summer shower ___________0.00 ___ 6.25 _____111.1 __ 78.13 mm_ 70 _ (57) _54 _ 44 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) __________ -- -- ___ 6.18 _____(81.1) __ 54.87 mm _ 30_ (t23) _55 _ 64 ___ 75.0 (28) __ Shaunado _________________ 5.14 ___ 5.64 _____ 76.1 __ 68.77 mm_ 64 _ (61) _56 _ 46 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ______________ -- -- ___ 5.60 _____(81.1) __59.07 mm_ 40 _ (36) _57 _ 50 ___ 45.0 (53) __ Weather Observer ________ 0.58 ___ 5.58 _____106.1 __ 75.87 mm _ 69 _ (55) _58 _ 47 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ______________ -- -- ___ 5.56 _____(81.1) __ 58.87 mm _ 39 _ (35) _59 _ 48 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _________________ -- -- ___ 5.45 _____(81.1) __ 66.53 mm _ 62 _ (56) _60 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ______________ -- -- ___ 4.88 _____(81.1) __ 60.73 mm_ 44_(41) _61 _ 53 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ______________ -- -- ___ 4.34 _____(81.1) __ 61.53 mm_t49_(t43) _62 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 ____________________ -- -- ___ 3.99 _____(81.1) __ 60.87 mm_ 45_(42) _63 _(---) __ 67.0 (36) __ snowblind __________________ 3.67 ___ 3.67 _____ 84.1 __ 61.20 mm _ t46_ (---) _64 _ 61 __ 49.0 (51) __shillitocettwo ________________0.94 ___ 3.34 _____102.1 __ 82.40 mm _71 _ (64) _65 _ 58 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow __________ -- -- ___ 3.30 _____ (81.1) __ 63.20 mm_ 53 _ (49) _66 _ 60 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ________________ -- -- ___ 2.90 _____ (81.1) __ 63.87 mm_t54_ (t50) t67 _ 62 __ --- --- (--) ___gazse9 ( -- ) __________________ -- -- ___ 2.28 _____ (81.1) __ 63.87 mm_t54_ (t50) t67 _(---) __ 59.0 (43) __ catbrainz ___________________ 2.28 ___ 2.28 _____ 92.1 __ 63.87 mm_ t54_ (---) _69 _ 65 __ 55.0 (47) __ Norrance ___________________ 1.74 ___ 2.04 _____ 96.1 __ 75.53 mm_ 68 _ (62) _70 _ 67 __ 55.0 (46) __ Neil N ______________________ 1.84 ___ 1.84 _____ 96.1 __ 85.87 mm_ 72 _ (66) _71 _(---) __ 48.3 (52) __ baddie ______________________0.76 ___ 0.76 _____102.8 __ 67.43 mm_ 63_ (---) _72 _ 66 __ 40.0 (55) __ syed2878 ___________________ 0.30 ___ 0.49 _____111.1 __ 93.20 mm_ 73 _ (67) _73 _(---) __ 40.0 (54) __ Wade _______________________ 0.40 ___ 0.40 _____111.1 __ 86.20 mm_ 66 _ (---) note: Ranks for normals and consensus are in decimal form, indicating where they are located relative to integer ranks of contest entrants. Log of results (Jan report, for cross-reference to above) _01 _ 08 ___100.0 (07) __ J 10 ( 54 ) __________________ 9.12_8.67__17.79 ____2.8_41.3__22.05 mm _ 3_ (8.) _02 _ 04 ___ 90.0 (13) __ noname_weather ( 47 ) ____ 8.22_9.43__17.65 ___ 7.2_32.3__19.75 mm _ 1_ (4) _03 _ 03 ___ 88.0 (17) __ Don ( 41 ) __________________ 7.47_9.62__17.09 ___ 9.2_31.3__20.25 mm _ 2 _(3) _04 _ 11 ___103.6 (10) __ WYorksWeather ( 30 ) _____ 8.56_8.10__16.66 ___ 6.4_46.3__26.35 mm _ 7_ (11) (4.7) _(17.6)_ 94.8 (5.2) ___ 1994-2023 average _____ 9.33_6.86__16.19 ___ 2.4_55.0__28.70 mm _9.1_(17.6) _05 _ 14 ___ 90.0 (11) __ Jeff C ( 8 ) ___________________8.38_7.53 __15.91 ___ 7.2_51.3__29.25 mm _ 9_(t14) (5.4)(19.1) __94.2 (5.8) ___1991-2020 average _______9.23_6.55__15.78____ 3.0_57.7__30.35 mm_ 9.3_ (19.1) _06 _ 09 ____ 87.0 (19) __ Feb1991blizzard ( 37 ) ____ 7.06_8.48__ 15.54___10.2_42.3__26.25 mm _ 6_ (9) _07 _ 06 ___ 84.0 (23) __ godber 1 (L1-12) ____________6.20^9.14__15.34 ___13.2_37.3__25.25 mm _ 4_ (t5) _08 _ 07 ___ 82.0 (24) __ snowray ( 24 ) ______________ 6.26_8.86__15.12___ 15.2_39.8__27.50 mm _ 8_ (7) (8.7)(22.4)__ 93.0 (7.5)____1981-2010 average ______ 8.96_5.90__14.86 ___ 4.2_63.9__34.05 mm _9.9_ (22.4) _09 _ 20 ___ 90.0 (12) __ DR(S)NO ( 43 ) ______________ 8.30_6.38__14.68 ___ 7.2_61.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (20) _10 _ 30 ___ 96.0 (02) __ Weather26 ( 9 ) _____________ 9.92_4.37__14.29 ___ 1.2_76.3__38.75 mm_ 17_ (30) _11 _ 01 ___123.0 (37) __ virtualsphere ( 20 ) ________ 4.24_10.00_14.24 ___ 25.8_25.3__25.55 mm _ 5 _(1) _12 _ 27 ___100.0 (06) __ methuselah (12.5) _________ 9.20_4.98__14.18 ___ 2.8_73.3__38.05 mm _16_ (t27) _13 _ 28 ___102.0 (08) __ summer18 ( 21 ) ___________ 8.88_4.88__13.76 ___ 4.8_73.3__39.05 mm_ 18_ (t27) _14 _ 19 ___ 86.0 (20) __ Let It Snow! (L1-7) ___________6.60^6.58__13.18 ___11.2_57.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (19) _15 _ 24 ___ 88.0 (16) __ moorlander ( 34 ) ___________7.55_5.58__13.13____ 9.2_65.3__37.25 mm_ 15_ (24) _16 _ 36 ___ 95.0 (04) __ The PIT ( 15 ) ________________9.52_3.41__12.93 ____2.2_81.3__41.75 mm_t23_ (t34) _17 _ 05 ___ 66.0 (44) __ prolongedSnowLover ( 50 )__3.06_9.24__12.30 ___ 31.2_37.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (t5) _18 _ 29 ___106.0 (15) __ Reef ( 39 ) __________________ 7.76_4.56__12.32____ 8.8_74.3__41.55 mm_ 22_ (29) _19 _ 12 ___ 71.0 (38) __ February1978 ( 52 ) __________4.02_7.91__11.93___ 26.2_47.3__36.75 mm_ 14_ (12) (19.9)(26.5)_ 81.6 (24.4)__average of all data (CET, EWP)_6.20_5.09_11.29___ 15.6_72.2__43.70 mm_27.8_(26.5) _20 _ 43 ___ 99.0 (03) __ jonboy (L1-2) _________________9.38^1.90 _11.28 ____ 1.8_ 90.3__46.05 mm_ 31_ (43) _21 _ 40 ___ 91.0 (9) ___ summer blizzard ( 27 ) _______8.71_2.47__11.18 ___ 6.2_87.3__46.75 mm_t33_ (40) _22 _ 02 ___ 55.0 (55) __ Frigid ( 38 ) __________________ 1.30_9.81__11.11 ____42.2_26.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (2) (22.4)(27)___ 81.0 (25) __ Consensus_________________ 6.10_4.98__11.08 ___ 16.2_73.3__44.75 mm_29.0_(t27) _23 _ 15 ___125.0 (41) __Addicks Fan 1981 ( 29 ) _____ 3.60_7.43__11.03____27.8_51.3__39.55 mm _ 20_ (t14) _24 _ 49 ___ 96.0 (01) __ dancerwithwings ( 3 ) ________10.00_0.76__10.76 ___ 1.2_102.3__51.75 mm_t43_(49) _25 _ 33 ___ 84.0 (22) __ Emmett Garland ( 36 ) _______6.58_3.89__10.47 ___ 13.2_80.3__46.75 mm_t33_ (t32) _26 _ 10 ___ 62.0 (50) __ chilly milly ( 4 ) _______________2.10_8.29__10.39 ___35.2_43.3__39.25 mm_ 19_ (10) _27 _ 22 ___ 74.0 (35) __ rwtwm (L1-9) ________________ 4.28^5.98__10.26 ___ 23.2_63.3__43.25 mm_ 26_ (22) _28 _ 25 ___ 74.0 (34) __ Metwatch ( 46 ) ______________ 4.66_5.38__10.04 ___ 23.2_66.3__ 44.75 mm_ 29_ (25) _29 _ 26 ___ 76.0 (31) __ Mulzy (L1-13) ________________ 4.84^5.18__10.02 ___ 21.2_71.3__46.25 mm_ 32_ (26) _30 _ 13 ___135.0 (52) __ I remember Atlantic252( 2 ) _ 1.84_7.72__ 9.56 ____37.8_49.3__43.55 mm_ 27_ (13) _31 _ --- ___ 95.0 (05) __ Tillys ( L1-1 ) __________________ 9.14^ -- --_ 9.14 _____ 2.2_78.3__ 40.25 mm _21_ (---) _32 _ 38 ___ 80.0 (26) __ stewfox ( 16 ) ________________ 5.94_2.85__8.79 ___ 17.2_86.3__51.75 mm_t43_(t38.) _33 _ 34 ___ 75.0 (32) __ John88b (L1-3) _______________4.68^3.61__8.29 ___ 22.2_81.3__51.75 mm_t43_(t34) _34 _ 23 ___ 62.3 (48) __ Polar Gael ( 18 ) _____________ 2.42_5.78__ 8.20 ___ 34.9_64.8__49.85 mm _39_(23) _35 _ --- ___105.0 (14) __ ScottD ( 6 ) ___________________7.92 _ -- --_ 7.92 ____ 7.8_78.3__ 43.05 mm _ 25_ (---) _36_ 18 ___ 53.0 (56) __ Midlands Ice Age ( 48 ) _______1.14_6.77__7.91 ___ 44.2_56.3__50.25 mm_ 40_(18.) _37 _ 44 ___ 81.0 (25) __Mr Maunder ( 33 ) ___________ 6.10_1.71 __ 7.81 __ 16.2_94.3__55.25 mm_t50_(44) _38 _ 16 ___ 52.0 (58) __ seaside60 (L1-10) ___________ 0.58^7.03^_7.61 ____45.2_51.3__48.25 mm _ 37_(t14) _39 _ 17 ___ 45.0 (61) __ davehsug ( 45 ) _____________ 0.40_6.96__ 7.36 ____ 52.2_53.3__52.75 mm_t47_(17) _40 _ --- ___ 88.0 (18) __ jmp223 (L1-5) _______________ 7.08^_-- --__ 7.08 ____ 9.2_78.3__ 43.75 mm _ 28_( --- ) _41 _ 39 ___ 70.0 (40) __ daniel* ( 42 ) ________________ 3.78_2.75__6.53 ____27.2_86.3__ 56.75 mm_ 53_(t38.) _42 _ --- ___110.0 (21) __summer8906 ( 13 ) __________ 6.40 _ -- --_ 6.40 ____12.8_78.3__45.55 mm_ 30_ (---) _43 _ 50 ___115.0 (28) __ summer shower ( 12 ) ______ 5.68_0.57__ 6.25 ___ 17.8_105.3_61.55 mm_ 57_(50) _44 _ 21 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) ___________ -- -- _6.18__ 6.18 ___ 21.2_62.3__41.75 mm _t23_ (21) _45 _ 31 ___ 59.0 (53) __ Bobd29 ( 26 ) _______________ 1.62_4.18 __5.80 ___38.2_78.3__58.25 mm _54_(31) _46 _ --- ___115.0 (29) __ summer of 95 ( 35 ) ________ 5.60_ -- -- __ 5.60 ____17.8_78.3__48.05 mm_ 36_(---) _47 _ 35 ___ 60.0 (51) __ Earthshine ( 17 ) ____________ 1.94_3.51__ 5.45 ___37.2_81.3__59.25 mm _56_(t34) _48 _ --- ___ 80.0 (27) ___Rob79812010 (L1-6) ________ 5.56 _-- --_ 5.52 ____17.2_78.3__47.75 mm _35_(---) _49 _ --- ___ 76.6 (30) __KirkcaldyWeather ( 11 ) ______ 5.30 _-- --_ 5.30 ____20.6_78.3__49.45 mm _38_(---) _50 _ 42 ___ 65.0 (46) __ Weather Observer ( 44 ) ____ 2.82_2.18__5.00 ___ 32.2_89.3__58.75 mm _55_(t41) _51 _ --- ___120.0 (33) __EastLancsRain ( 1 ) __________ 4.88 _-- --__ 4.88 ____22.8_78.3__ 50.55 mm_ 41_( --- ) _52 _ 47 ___ 67.0 (42) __ SteveB ( 10 ) ________________ 3.38_1.14__4.52 ____30.2_98.3__64.25 mm_t58_(47) _53 _ (---) __ 72.0 (36) __ harveyslugger ( 23 ) ________ 4.34_ ---- __ 4.34 ___ 25.2_ 78.3__51.75 mm_t43_(---) _54 _ 32 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 ( --- ) _______________ -- -- _3.99__3.99 ___ 21.2 _80.3__50.75 mm_ 42_(t32) _55 _ 46 ___ 64.0 (47) __ Stationary Front ( 51 ) _____ 2.58_1.33__3.91 ___ 33.2_97.3__65.25 mm_ 60_(46) _56 _ --- ___ 70.0 (39) __ weatherforducks ( 25 ) _____ 3.86_ -- --__ 3.86 ____27.2_78.3__52.75 mm_t47_(---) _57_ 37 ___ 53.0 (57) __ Somerset girl (L1-11) _______ 0.76^3.04__3.80 ___ 44.2_84.3__64.25 mm_t58_(37) _58 _ --- ___ 67.0 (43) __sukayuonsensnow ( 32 ) ____ 3.30 _-- --_ 3.30 ____ 30.2_78.3__54.25 mm_ 49_(---) _59 _ 45 ___ 56.3 (54) __ Roger J Smith ( 5 ) __________ 1.46_1.52__2.98 ___ 40.9_96.6__68.75 mm_ 63_(45) _60 _ --- ____ 65.0 (45) __ Climate Man ( 14 ) _________ 2.90_ --- __ 2.90 ___ 32.2_78.3__55.25 mm_t50_(---) _61 _ 51 ___132.0 (49) __ shillitocettwo (L1-14) _______2.02^0.38__2.40 ___ 34.8_110.3_ 72.55 mm _64_(51) _62 _ 41 ___ --- --- (--) ___gazse9 ( -- ) ________________ -- --_ 2.28 __ 2.28 ___ 21.2_89.3__55.25 mm_t50_(t41) _63 _ 48 ___ 50.0 (59) __ Leo97t ( 26 ) _______________ 0.66_0.95__1.61 ___ 47.2_101.3_74.25 mm_ 65_(48.) _64 _ --- ___ 45.3 (60) __ Shaunado ( 6 ) _____________ 0.50_--- ---_0.50 ____51.9_78.3__65.10 mm_ 61_(---) _65 _ --- ___ 45.0 (62) __ Norrance ( 53 ) ____________ 0.30 _ -- --_0.30 ____52.2_78.3__65.25 mm_ 62_(---) _66 _ 52 ___ 40.0 (63) __ syed2878 ( 19 ) ____________0.00_0.19__0.19 ____57.2_111.3_84.25 mm_ 67_(52) _67 _ 53 ___ -- --- ( --- ) __ Neil N ( --- ) _______________---- 0.00 __ 0.00 ___ 21.2_140.3__80.75 mm_ 66_(53) 10.0 _ 95.1 __ Polar Gael (19) __________________129.0 __ DR(S)NO 9.3 _ --- --- __ BlueSkies_do_I_see (10) _________110.0 __ B87^^ 8.4 _ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (23) _____________104.0 __ virtualsphere 8.3 _ 94.0 __ Emmett Garland (37) _____________ 95.1 __ Polar Gael 8.2 _ 82.0 __ Methuselah ( 2 ) __________________ 95.0 __ syed2878 8.2 _ 94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (38) ____________ 95.0 __ Stationary Front 8.1 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 9 ) _______________ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder 8.0 _ 60.0 __ The PIT (22) _______________________95.0 __ SLEETY 7.9 _ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (24) _____________94.0 __ Emmett Garland 7.9 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (25) _________________94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 7.9 _ 95.0 __ Stationary Front (28) _____________ 94.0 __ SteveB^ 7.9 _ 72.0 __ Don (41) __________________________ 91.6 __ Weather26 7.8 _ 81.0 __ feb1991blizzard (36) ______________90.0 __ Let It Snow! 7.8 _ 87.5 __ snowray (39) ______________________90.0 __ weatherforducks 7.8 _ 54.0 __ sunny_vale (L1-5) _________________90.0 __ Jeff C^ 7.7 _ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings (13) _____________89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age 7.7 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun (29) _________________88.0 __ summer18 7.7 _ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder (32) _________________ 88.0 __ stewfox 7.6 _ 77.0 __ Reef (18) __________________________88.0 __ seaside60^ 7.6 _ 85.0 __ J 10 (43) ___________________________87.5 __ snowray 7.5 _ 78.0 __ summer8906 ( 5 ) _________________85.0 __ J 10 7.5 _ --- --- __ Damianslaw (40) _________________ 82.0 __ Methuselah 7.4 _ 78.8 __ Roger J Smith (26) _________________82.0 __ rwtwm 7.4 _ 88.0 __ stewfox (L1-6) _____________________81.0 __ feb1991blizzard 7.3 _ 78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 (16) _____ 81.0 __ Wade^^ 7.3 _ 74.0 __ summer blizzard (15) _____________78.8 __ Roger J Smith 7.3 _ 91.6 __ Weather26 (35) ___________________ 78.0 __ summer8906 7.2 _ 78.0 __ consensus _________________________ 78.0 __ consensus 7.2 _ 90.0 __ Let It Snow! ( 3 ) ___________________78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 7.2 _ 72.0 __ Frigid (21) _________________________ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings 7.2 _ 77.0 __ Mulzy (30) _________________________ 77.0 __ Reef 7.2 _ 89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (33) ______________77.0 __ Mulzy 7.1 _ 66.0 __ shillitocettwo (11) _________________ 76.5 __ Metwatch 7.1 _ 67.0 __ Weather Observer (31) ____________74.0 __ summer blizzard 7.1 _ 88.0 __ seaside60 (L1-2) ___________________72.5 __ bobd 7.0 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (27) _____________ 72.0 __ Frigid 6.9 _ 72.5 __ bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________________ 72.0 __ Don 6.9 _129.0__ DR(S)NO (12) _____________________ 71.5 __ 1981-2010 6.9 _110.0__ B87 (L2-1) ________________________ 70.0 __ jonboy 6.8 _ 95.0 __ syed2878 (17) _____________________70.0 __ davehsug^ 6.8 _ 68.0 __ February1978 (44) ________________ 68.0 __ February1978 6.7 _ 65.4 __ mean 1991-2020 __________________ 67.3 __ 1994-2023 6.7 _ 67.3 __ mean 1994-2023 __________________67.0 __ Weather Observer 6.7 _ 88.0 __ summer18 ( 6 ) ____________________66.0 __ shillitocettwo 6.7 _ 60.0 __ Leo97t ( 4 ) ________________________65.4 __ 1991-2020 6.7 _ 94.0 __ SteveB (L1-4) ______________________63.0 __ Godber 1 6.6 _ 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010 __________________ 61.6___1766-2023 6.6 _104.0__ virtualsphere ( 7 ) _________________60.0 __ Leo97t 6.6 _ 82.0 __ rwtwm (20) _______________________ 60.0 __ The PIT 6.5 _ 76.5 __ Metwatch (47) ____________________ 60.0 __ daniel* 6.4 _ 70.0 __ jonboy (14) _______________________ 55.0 __ Neil N 6.3 _ 63.0 __ Godber 1 (46) ____________________ 54.0 __ sunny_vale^ 6.3 _ 70.0 __ davehsug (L1-3) _________________ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather 6.1 _ 55.0 __ Neil N ( 8 ) ________________________ 43.0 __ Summer Shower 6.0 _ 81.0 __ Wade (L2-2) _______________________ (six CET only) 5.4 _ 60.0 __ daniel* (45) _______________________ 5.4 _ 61.6 __ mean 1766-2023 ________________ 4.9 _ 95.0 __ SLEETY (34) _______________________ 4.5 _ 90.0 __ Jeff C ( L1-1 ) ______________________ 4.1 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (42) _________________ _________________________ 47 on time CET and 41 on time EWP forecasts, both added 8 late forecasts (so far) total 55 CET, 49 EWP

EWP opened with about 15 mm on first two days but will only rise slowly according to GFS, largely dry away from southwest England for next ten days, eventually about 25 mm additional by 19th to get a total of about 40 mm.