Roger J Smith

EWP tracker was 10 mm after 7th, about that same amount likely to be added for 8th, and 40-60 mm the range most likely to be accumulated from GFS ten day guidance starting from earlier today. That leaves my earlier provisional used in the "what if" approximation of scoring (100.1 mm) valid but I will run the program for 90.1 and post that version so you can see where you might end up for those outcomes. EWP20182019AUG901.xlsx

SB, would say the CET will be around 17.0 ten days from now. EWP will be close to 70 mm.

EWP tracker was only at 4 mm after four days, the 5th added very little, and today is adding just over a small area in the far north, so assuming it's still close to 6 or 7 mm, ten day GFS is quite wet and adds 55-60 mm, placing the estimate around 60-70 mm by just the middle of the month. So yes it could be headed towards 100 mm if the pattern remains similar, and once again it's northern England leading the way. Will attach the updated scoring for some arbitrary large amount in August just to get that rolling, only as a "what if" at this stage. EWP20182019AUG.xlsx

As to what is normally the warmest part of the summer, the 1981-2010 CET averages show that the last seven days of July are warmest, average there being 17.3 C. The first seven days of August by comparison averaged 17.0. Looking at the longer set of data from all years 1772 to 2018, the warmest seven days were 13th to 19th July which averaged 16.3, about 0.1 to 0.2 higher than the averages around end of July.

Hadley EWP posted now as 72.2 mm. Slight changes to scoring as some of the ties based on 72.0 mm are now separated. But it didn't change any annual positions. Best combined forecasts are Diagonal Red Line (1st CET, 7th EWP, total 8..) and EdStone (5th, 6th, total 11). Hadley EWP also updated several other months earlier in 2019 making slight changes to "ultimate scoring" section. Updated scoring file: EWP20182019Julyb.xlsx

In the EWP, have created a spot in the scoring where these too-late forecasts get a score so at least you can track where your forecast ends up scoring potentially against the field. It is not part of the official scoring for the contest but when I post August results in early September, look underneath the alternate "ultimate scoring" section which tracks scores against later-adjusted Hadley table entries. Missing a month in CET is less punitive as your average errors count for large fractions of the score.

For EWP as a whole, the year has been middle of the pack. To date (counting the 72 mm in July) the total is 474.7 mm, that is below 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2017, and marginally above 2018. It is slightly ahead of 2015 and about 20% more than 2013 (through July). I would imagine in northern England it may be closer to the high end of the recent range.

The EWP average for 1981-2010 was 67.3 mm and for 1989-2018 it was 69.8 mm. The 1961-90 average was 62 mm. The provisional total of 72 mm is therefore a little above those values, but quite close to the most recent average. The regional breakdown according to the EWP trackers looks like this: Region ____ July 2019 ____ 1961-90 normal ____ Percentage NW Eng ______ 106 ___________ 72 _____________ 147 NE Eng _______ 86 ____________58 _____________ 148 Central Eng ____ 70 ___________ 52 ______________134 SW Eng Wales _ 44 ____________ 59 ______________ 75 SE Eng _______ 50 ____________ 48 _____________ 105 ... So, there was considerably more relative to normal in the north (those percentages would all be somewhat lower for more recent normals).

Thanks for adding those details. Interesting. Meanwhile, the July CET was in fact 17.5 so no edits required to the tracking. It will take a warmer July than this year to produce a new normal of 16.9, otherwise it's likely to remain 16.8.

The EWP came in provisionally at 72 mm. Based on that, the top scores for July were score _ fcst __ forecaster 10.0 __ 72.0 __ Jeff C 9.8 ___73.0 __ Let It Snow! 9.6 ___71.0 __ Jonboy (9.8 - 0.2 late one day) 9.4 ___ 73.1 __ Midlands Ice Age and the top eight in the annual contest, very close at the top after July ... 59.9 __ Reef 59.8 __ Born From the Void 53.8 __ seaside60 52.9 __ weather-history 49.9 __ Mulzy, J10 (tied) 49.0 __ EdStone 48.8 __ Feb1991Blizzard _____________________________________ I have added the excel file showing all scoring. Final adjustments around 5th-6th. EWP20182019Julyb.xlsx

REPORT ON CONSENSUS and NORMALS SCORING for JULY Dec 2018 _____________________________ Jan 2019 _____________________ Feb 2019 __________ ____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points ____ FCST __ error__ rank _ points _____ FCST __ error __ rank __ points Consensus_ 5.0 __ -1.9 _ 32 to 32 _ 52.3 _____3.5 ___ -0.5 __16 to 18 _ 75.7 to 78.6 _ 4.0 __ -2.7 _ 33 to 37 _ 48.3 to 54.1 1989-2018*_4.9 __ -2.0 _ 33 to 33 _ 50.8 _____4.7 ___ +0.7 __21 to 23 _ 68.6 to 71.4 _ 4.9 __ -1.8 _ 14 to 14 _ 81.3 1981-2010__4.6 __ -2.3 _ 42 to 44 _ 33.8 to 36.9 _4.4 _ +0.4 __14 to 15 _ 80.0 to 81.4 _ 4.4 __ -2.3 _ 17 to 19 _ 74.2 to 77.0 March 2019 _____________________________ April 2019 _____________________ May 2019 ____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points _____FCST_error _ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank __ points consensus _ 6.9 _ --0.9 _ 29 to 33 _ 48.4 to 54.8 _8.4 _ --0.7 _ 24 to 28 _ 55.9 to 62.3 _ 12.3 _ +1.2 _ 28 to 31 _ 50.0-55.0 1989-2018 _ 6.8 __ --1.0 _ 34 to 35 _ 46.2 to 47.8 _8.8 _ --0.3 _ 9 to 13 _ 80.3 to 86.9 __ 12.0 _ +0.9 _ 17 to 20 _ 68.3 to 73.3 1981-2010 _ 6.6 __ --1.2 _ 39 to 39 _ 39.7 ______8.5 _ --0.6 _ 20 to 23 _ 63.9 to 68.6 __ 11.7 _ +0.6 _ 11 to 11 _ 83.3 June 2019 __________________________________ July 2019 ______________________ Average (8 months) ____FORECAST __ error __ rank __ points _______ FCST _ error _ rank _ points ________ abs err __ rank ___ points consensus _ 15.0 _ +0.8 _ 27 to 31 _ 48.1 to 55.0 __ 17.0 _ -0.5 _ 19-24 __ 62.9 to 71.0 ____1.15 __ 26 to 30 __ 55.1 to 60.5 1989-2018 _ 14.6 _ +0.4 _ 11 to 15 _ 75.8 to 82.7 __ 16.9 _ -0.6 _ 25-30 __ 53.2 to 61.3 ____0.96 __ 20 to 23 __ 65.6 to 69.5 1981-2010 _ 14.5 _ +0.3 __ 6 to 10 _ 84.4 to 91.3 __ 16.7 _ -0.8 _ 34-39 __ 38.7 to 46.8 ____1.06 __ 23 to 26 __ 61.2 to 65.1 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Consensus was a little better in July than the two normals but this leaves the contest year average score significantly lower for consensus than either normal, with the most recent period of 1989-2018 still faring better than 1981-2010 and this gap was increased in July. ================================================================ From the table of entries, these are the top scoring forecasts: Fcst ___ err __ Forecaster (order of entry) 17.5 ___ 0.0 __ Diagonal Red Line (11) 17.5 ___ 0.0 __ Leo97t (17) 17.5 ___ 0.0 __ Quicksilver1989 (46) 17.4 ___-0.1 __ B87 17.4 ___-0.1 __ Ed Stone (35) 17.4 ___-0.1 __ seaside60 (L2-1) __ may drop 1-2 ranks due late penalty 17.3 ___-0.2 __ dancerwithwings (20) 17.7 ___+0.2__ Feb1991blizzard (42) 17.3 ___-0.2 __ daniel* (51) DRL had 70 mm and Ed Stone 74 mm, one of these is likely to be best combined ranking (EWP was 70 mm after 30 days, looks to add 3-4 on 31st).

1981-2010 CET averages and extremes 1772 to 2018  Date ____ Avg CET ___ cum CET ____ MAX 1772-2018 __ MIN 1772-2018 ___ Running CET extremes 1772-2018 _01______ 16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.9 1995 _____ 11.9 1888 ________ 24.9 _ 1995 ____ 11.9 _ 1888 _02 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.6 1995 _____ 11.6 1822 ________ 24.8 _ 1995 ____ 12.2 _1822,1865 _03 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.4 1990 _____ 10.5 1912 ________ 24.3 _ 1995 ____ 11.7 _ 1912 _04______ 17.0 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.4 1975 _____ 11.3 1812 ________ 23.4 _ 1995 ____ 12.0 _ 1865 _05 ______17.3 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.1 2003 _____ 11.3 1812 ________ 22.3 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 _ 1865 _06 ______17.2 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.5 2003 _____ 11.2 1823&1860 ___ 21.6 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 _ 1812 _07______ 16.9 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.8 1975 _____ 11.6 1898 ________ 21.5 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812 _08 ______16.8 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.7 1975 _____ 11.5 1823 ________ 21.7 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812 _09 ______16.9 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.9 2003 _____ 11.0 1931 ________ 21.7 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812 _10______ 16.8 _______ 16.9 _______ 22.5 1773&1997__10.8 1892 ________ 21.3 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _ 1812 _11 ______16.7 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.6 1997 _____ 10.8 1902 ________ 21.1 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 _ 1812 _12 ______16.8 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.2 1911 _____ 10.5 1912 ________ 21.0 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 _ 1812 _13______ 16.3 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.6 1911 _____ 10.5 1881 ________ 21.0 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 _1812, 1912 _14 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.3 1911 _____ 10.8 1912 ________ 20.8 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 _1912 _15 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1893 _____ 10.3 1829 ________ 20.7 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 1912 _16______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1947 ______ 9.5 1888 ________ 20.4 _ 1975 ____ 12.6 1912 _17 ______16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.4 1876 _____ 10.9 1888 ________ 20.1 _ 1975 ____ 12.7 1912 _18 ______16.6 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.6 1893 _____ 10.3 1830 ________ 20.0 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912 _19 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.8 1932 _____ 10.4 1839 ________ 20.0 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912 _20 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.9 1995 _____ 10.5 1920 ________ 20.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912 _21 ______16.4 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1984 ______ 9.8 1850 ________ 20.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912 _22______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.4 1817 ________ 20.3 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912 _23 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.3 1877 ________ 20.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912 _24 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 21.5 1990 ______ 9.1 1864 ________ 20.0 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912 _25______ 15.8 _______ 16.7 ________ 20.9 1899 ____ 10.5 1787,1843&1864_ 20.0 _1995 ____13.0_1912 _26 ______15.7 _______ 16.6 ________ 20.6 1870 ______ 8.8 1864 ________ 19.9 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912 _27 ______15.4 _______ 16.6 ________ 22.8 1930 _____ 11.0 1885&1890 ___ 19.8 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912 _28______ 15.1 _______ 16.5 ________ 23.0 1942 _____ 10.5 1919 ________ 19.6 _ 1995 ____ 12.8 1912 _29 ______15.3 _______ 16.5 ________ 20.6 1930 ______ 9.1 1812 ________ 19.4 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912 _30 ______15.5 _______ 16.5 _______ 19.8 1804&2008__ 9.5 1890 ________ 19.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912  _31 ______15.2 _______ 16.4________ 21.3 1906 ______ 9.2 1833 ________ 19.2 _ 1995 ____ 12.9 1912 __________________________________________________________________ The most recent record minimum CET daily mean in August was on the 9th of 1931. The most recent record maximum CET daily mean in August was on the 30th of 2008 (tied) and before that 9th of 2003.

Table of entries for August 2019 CET and EWP contests CET __ EWP ___ FORECASTER (order of entry) _________ CET __ EWP __ FORECASTER (order of entry) 21.5 __200.0___ Lettucing Gutted (6) __________________17.0 __ 75.0 ___ B87 (2) ______________________ 19.0 __ 20.2 ___ Polar Gael (1) ______________________ 17.0 __ ----- ___ Jonathan F. (16) ________________ 18.5 __ 80.0 ___ virtualsphere (18) ____________________17.0 __ 85.0 ___ DR(S)NO (21)_________________ 18.4 __ 29.2 ___ Chrisbell-nottheweatherman (5) ________ 17.0 __ 75.0 ___ EdStone (30, 13.5) _____________ 18.1 __ 77.6 ___ CheesepuffScott (7) __________________17.0 __ ----- ___ sundog (41) ___________________ 18.1 __ 78.0 ___ bobd29 (9) _________________________16.9 __ 75.0 ___ summer blizzard (24) ____________ 18.0 __ 70.4 ___ brmbrmcar (23) _____________________ 16.9 __ 75.0 ___ Mulzy (45) _____________________ 17.9 __ 20.0 ___ Big daddy 49 (17) ____________________16.9 __ ----- ___ Man with Beard (47) _____________ 17.7 __ 92.2 ___ Roger J Smith (44) ___________________16.9 __ 77.0 ___ Timmytour (52) _________________ ________________________________________________ 16.9 __130.0___ davehsug (L1-3) _______________ 17.7 __ 90.0 ___ Born From The Void (46) ______________ 16.8 __ 60.0 ___ Leo97t (14) ____________________ 17.6 __ 69.4 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather (19) ________________16.7 __102.0___ coldest winter (11) _______________ 17.5 __ 75.0 ___ Jeff C (13) __________________________16.7 __ 96.0 ___ I Remember Atlantic252 (12) ______ 17.5 __ 67.0 ___ DAVID SNOW (55) ___________________16.7 __115.0___ Norrance (32) ____________ 17.5 __ 96.0 ___ Godber.1 (59) _______________________16.7 __ 79.0 ___ stargazer (25) ____________ 17.4 __ ----- ___ Walsall Wood Snow (35) _______________16.6 __ 70.0 ___ daniel* (42) ______________ 17.4 __ 80.0 ___ Stationary Front (50) _________________ 16.6 __ ----- ___ Earthshine (49) ____________ 17.3 __ 82.0 ___ emmett garland (10) __________________16.6 __ ----- ___ Quicksilver1989 (58) _________ 17.3 __102.0___ stewfox (4) _________________________ 16.5 __ ----- ___ snowray (40) ____________________ 17.3 __ ----- ___ Summer Sun (21) ____________________ 16.5 __ 72.0 ___ Reef (48) _______________________ 17.3 __ ----- ___ Relativistic (34) ______________________ 16.5 __ 85.0 ___ J10 (57) ________________________ _________________________________________________16.5 __ 83.0 ___ Blast From the Past (L1-5) ___ 17.3 __ ----- ___ dancerwithwings (37) __________________16.5 __78.8 __ 1989-2018 average 17.3 __ 66.0 ___ seaside 60 (51) ______________________16.4 __75.6 __ 1981-2010 average 17.3 __ 90.0 ___ Don (56) ___________________________ 16.2 __124.0___ SteveB (29) _____________________ 17.2 __ 97.0 ___ Weather26 (8) _______________________16.0 __ 84.0 ___ weather-history (36) ______________ 17.2 __ ----- ___ Prolonged SnowLover (22) ______________15.9 __ 89.0 ___ nn2013 (3) _____________________ 17.2 __ ----- ___ matty007 (31) ________________________15.8 __ ----- ___ Optimus Prime (53) _______________ 17.2 __ 80.0 ___ the PIT (38) _________________________15.8 __ ----- ___ Duncan McAlister (L1-1) ____________ 17.2 __ 68.0 ___ Feb1991blizzard (43) __________________15.5 __ 74.0 ___ DiagonalRedLine (26) ____________ 17.2 __ ----- ___ damianslaw (54) ______________________ 15.5 __ 94.0 ___ syed2878 (28) __________________ 17.1 __ ----- ___ Mark Bayley (33) ______________________15.4 __ ----- ___ Kentish Man (27) & Andrew R (L1-2) __ __________________________________________________15.1 __ ----- ___ vizzy2004 (L1-4) 17.1 __ 75.7 ___ Midlands Ice Age (39) _________________ 14.5 __250.0___ Thundershine (15) _______________ __ 59 on-time forecasts, five so far that are one day late, total of 64 __ __ consensus 17.0 C. (with 80.0 mm for EWP) ====================== <> ===================== EWP forecasts in order of amounts ... 250 Thun .. 200 LG .. 130 dave ..124 Steve .. 115 Norr .. 102 stew, cold .. 97 wx26 .. 96 IRAtl, Godb .. 94 syed .. 92.2 RJS .. 90 BFTV, Don .. 89 nn .. 85 DRSNO, J10 .. 84 w-h .. 83 BFTP .. 82 emm .. 80 virt, Pit, SF ..(79.5 con) 79 star... 78.8 (89-18) 78 bobd .. 77.6 CPS .. 77 tim .. 75.7 MIA .. 75.6 (81-10) .. 75 B87, Jeff, EdS, SB, Mul .. 74 DRL .. 72 reef 70.4 brm .. 70 dan .. 69.4 KW .. 68 Feb91 .. 67 DSNOW .. 66 sea .. 60 Leo .. 29.2 chris .. 20.2 PG .. 20 big d 43 on-time forecasts, plus two late, median (consensus) 80.0 mm. _______________________________________________________________ NOW CLOSED TO FURTHER ENTRIES 165 83 151

I have not been tracking that aspect, J10, maybe somebody reading this could provide some insights. I also had that perception about max rising a bit slower than min during this half century of warming. May be more applicable to warmer half of the year.

EWP had reached 59 mm after 29 days, 30th appears to have grid average of 12-15 mm and today likely another 5 or so, 75-80 mm is the revised estimate for where July ends up (more or less average after all the dry trending weather before the 20th). Thinking the month has 0.2 downward potential, unlikely to shift off 17.9 today (at 17.92 after 30 days) so 17.7 is my punt for final CET.

I don't mind how many times people post or change their forecasts because I tend to compile the tables from back to front after figuring out that it's less work to start with the final guesses. Also the contest is for NW members to forecast, not for me to make up tables. A bit of chop and change is all part of forecasting (or it should be). So that's the priority. I have the forecasts to date in a bit of a table already, looks like consensus so far is around 17.2 and 75 mm. Will post the on time forecasts at midnight or shortly thereafter.

Going for 17.7 and 92.2 mm. Expect a third heat wave in the second half of August some time. Won't show on any charts until maybe the 8th to 10th.

Also, this is the expanded frequency count for the 30-year periods for all 153 of the days that reached a mean of 22.0 or higher. At random, the 30-year intervals should have about 18 hot days and the recent decade (most of nine summers) should have 6. The years 1975 and 1976 account for 17 alone. 1772-1800 _ 4 _________ 1921-1950 _ 30 1801-1830 _12 _________1951-1980 _ 22 1831-1860 _10 _________ 1981-2010 _ 39 1861-1890 _10 _________ 2011-2019 _ 10 1891-1920 _16 _________

Meanwhile, here's an additional list of all other hot days 22.0 to 22.2 that didn't make the top 100 and ties ... there are 48 additional days in this addition, for a total of 153. Any 21.9 days would be tied 154th. t106th _ 22.2 __ 16 July 1793, 2 Aug 1856, 18 July 1859, 16 July 1868, 5 Aug 1897, 18 and 20 July, 1901, 12 Aug 1911, __________ 19 July 1921, 4 Aug 1933, 26 July 2018 t117th _ 22.1 __ 5 July 1836, 15 Aug 1893, 10 July 1921, 14 July 1926, 21 June 1941, 18 Aug 1947, 22 and 23 Aug 1955, __________ 5 Aug 1975, 30 June 1976, 12 July 1983, 24 July 1989, 19 Aug 1995, 19 Aug 1996,19 Aug 1997, 19 June 2005, 18 July 2006. t134th _ 22.0 __ 15 July 1779, 16 July 1808, 1 Aug 1825, 22 June 1846, 13 July 1847, 25 July 1872, 17 Aug 1893, __________ 20 July 1900, 15 & 16 July 1912, 5 & 6 Aug 1933, 24 June 1935, 17 Aug 1947, 12 Aug 1953, 3 Aug 1975, __________ 11 Aug 1995, 8 Aug 1997, 11 July 2005, 27 June 2011 t154th _ 21.9 Oddly enough, this lower threshhold does not extend the season, anything before 2 June or after 5 September is below 22.0 C. It does add eight days in the 96-day interval to reach 66 days with at least one representative. August gains proportionately more than July in this extended version. ____________________________________________________________________________________ The following is the complete list of dates filled by the 153 hottest days (extending the table from the previous version). __ * for each additional hot day. 18 in June _ 2 3 6 15 19 21* 22* 24 26 27*** 28 29 30 85 in July _ 1*** 2*3 4 5** 6**7*10 11**12****13****14***15***16****17 18**** 19****20****21** 22*** 23* 24** 25** 26* 27 28 29**30*31* 48 in August _1**2** 3**4* 5****6*7 8*9* 10** 11**12*13 15 17** 18* 19*** 22 23 27 28* 29 2 in Sept __ 2, 5

Heavy rains in parts of the north brought the EWP tracker to 53 mm (after 27 days) and likely around 60 mm after 28. Large parts of the south have had a lot less than this, but may get boosted by the incoming low. Looks like a finish near 70 mm is likely now.

One other stat of interest, the 105 hottest days span the period 2 June to 5 September which is 96 days, but of those only 58 provide at least one (the record max for the other 38 falls below 22.3). The dates most frequently represented in the list (with four) are 1st, 12th, 13th and 22nd of July. The longest stretch of days with multiple cases is 18-25 July, then 29 July to 3 August. There are no dates missing from the 11th of July to the 11th of August. Only 13 cases fall 2nd to 20th of June or 13th August and later. The top 39 (23.1 and higher) all fall between 1st July and 13th August. For the entire set of 105 days, the dates included are as follows (each asterisk represents an additional day). 12 in June _ 2 3 6 15 21 22 26 27** 28 29 64 in July _ 1*** 2* 3 4 5* 6** 7* 11* 12*** 13*** 14** 15* 16 17 18* 19*** 20** 21** 22*** 23* 24* 25* 26 27 28 29** 30* 31* 27 in August _1* 2* 3* 4 5* 6 7 8 9* 10** 11* 13 17 18 19 27 28* 29 2 in Sept __ 2, 5

If one defines accurate as lowest possible temperature reading in a given area, then that site looks a bit less than ideal, but nobody could say it wasn't fairly representative of where millions of people live, the average back garden in southeast England must be smaller and more enclosed than that. I've seen a variety of "climate stations" that get data into publication after some time passes for collection and quality control and they are broadly similar to this one. They all tend to run a bit warmer than your "perfectly sited" location might run, and I know the range quite well from doing an extensive research project on it, without exposing instruments to badly flawed locations with nearby heat reflectors, you can still get a 2 to 3 C range in daytime temperatures and even larger on a clear night over snow cover. I have a hunch that they will let this reading pass. As to all-time records, was there not a reading back in 1868 that was over 100 F that nobody ever seems to mention any longer, but I recall reading about it in Lamb's work so it must have had some official sanction half a century ago.

The top 100 list is actually 105 due to the ties for 98th place 22.3 C. So of those 105, this is how they break down by 30-year intervals (the first one is missing its first year). A random distribution would average 12 in these 30-year intervals and 4 in the current decade. 1772-1800 _ 2 _________ 1921-1950 _ 21 1801-1830 _10 _________1951-1980 _16 1831-1860 _ 5 _________ 1981-2010 _ 28 1861-1890 _ 8 _________ 2011-2019 _ 8 1891-1920 _ 7 _________ Only about 20% of the years contributed days to this top 105 list.

I have edited the value posted now for yesterday, it was 24.7 C, tied third warmest. We'll see where that stands at the final adjustment at month's end.

The Hundred Hottest Days (CET 1772-2019) Ranking the hottest days in the daily CET records for mean daily temperatures ... July 2019 values are now final. Rank __ Mean __ Date(s) _t1 ____ 25.2 ___ 29 Jul 1948, 25 Jul 2019 _ 3 ____ 24.9 ___ 1 Aug 1995 _ 4 ____ 24.7 ___ 4 Jul 1976 _t5 ____ 24.6 ___ 3 Jul 1976, 2 Aug 1995, 19 Jul 2006, 1 Jul 2015 _ 9 ____ 24.5 ___ 13 Jul 1808 t10 ____ 24.4 ___ 14 Jul 1808, 3 Aug 1990 t12 ____ 24.0 ___ 5 Jul 1852, 13 Jul 1923 t14 ____ 23.9 ___ 24 Jul 1818, 5 Jul 1976, 2 Aug 1990, 9 Aug 2003 t18 ____ 23.7 ___ 15 Jul 1825, 12 Jul 1923, 28 Jul 1948, 8 Aug 1975 _22____ 23.6 ___ 13 Aug 1911 t23 ____ 23.5 ___ 19 Jul 1825, 20 Jul 2016 t25 ____ 23.4 ___ 29 Jul 1911, 31 Jul 1943, 4 Aug 1975, 31 Jul 1995, 3 Aug 1995 t30 ____ 23.3 ___ 18 Jul 1825, 6 Jul 1976 t32 ____ 23.2 ___ 22 Jul 1868, 9 Aug 1911, 26 Jul 2006 t35 ____ 23.1 ___ 6 Jul 1852, 21 Jul 1868, 30 Jul 1948, 22 Jul 1989, 5 Aug 2003, 24 Jul 2019 t41 ____ 23.0 ___ 28 Aug 1942, 3 June 1947, 29 Jul 2001, 19 Jul 2016 t45 ____ 22.9 ___ 15 June 1858, 20 Jul 1878, 1 Jul 1976 t48 ____ 22.8 ___ 27 June 1826, 27 Aug 1930, 19 Aug 1932, 7 Aug 1975, 2 Jul 1976 t53 ____ 22.7 ___ 21 June 1817, 27 June 1878, 13 Jul 1983, 21 Jul 1989, 16 Jul 2003, 2 Jul 2006, 20 Jul 2006, 25 Jul 2006, 1 Aug 2013 t62 ____ 22.6 ___ 11 Jul 1783, 18 Aug 1893, 19 Jul 1901, 2 Sep 1906, 7 Jul 1923, 29 Aug 1930, 28 Jun 1976, 7 Jul 1976, _________________ 12 Jul 1983, 11 Aug 1997, 15 Jul 2003 t73 ____ 22.5 ___ 10 Aug 1773, 30 Jul 1830, 14 Jul 1847, 5 Aug 1868, 11 Aug 1884, 12 Jul 1941, 6 June 1950, 1 July 1952, _________________ 27 June 1976, 14 Jul 1983, 10 Aug 1997, 6 Aug 2003, 1 Jul 2009, 27 Jul 2018, 23 Jul 2019 t88 ____ 22.4 ___ 12 Jul 1808, 17 Aug 1876, 21 Jul 1911, 11 Jul 1923, 28 Aug 1930, 5 Sep 1949, 29 June 1976, 13 Jul 1983 _________________ 23 Jul 1989, 10 Aug 2003 t98 ____ 22.3 ___ 17 Jul 1834, 22 Jul 1869, 18 Jul 1921, 22 Jul 1925, 22 June 1941, 2 June 1947, 6 Jul 1957, 26 June 1976 _______________________________________________________