Roger J Smith
-
Posts
7,550 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
15
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Roger J Smith
-
-
CET May averages and other statistics
___ table includes all CET values for the period 1981 to 2023 ... bold type, warmest third, italics middle third, underlined, coolest third of years ___
___ ties indicated are in one decimal, table ranks are based on a second decimal ___
21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)
20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day.
15.1 ... warmest May (1833)
13.9 ... 2nd warmest May (1848)
13.8 ... t-3rd warmest Mays (1758, 1788)
13.7 ... 5th warmest May (1808)
13.6 ... t-6th warmest Mays (1727, 1992)
13.5 ... t-8th warmest Mays (1784, 1868, 1919, 1947)
13.4 ... t-12th warmest Mays 2008 (tied with 1726, 1952)
13.3 ... t-15th warmest Mays 1743, 1804, 1964, 2017, 2018
13.1 ... 1998, 2022
12.9 ... 1989, 1999
12.6 ... 1990, 2016
12.5 ... 2001, 2020, 2023
12.3 ... 2006, 2014
12.2 ... 2011
12.1 ... 2004, 2009
12.0 ... 2000, 2023 ... ... highest 30-year average (1989-2018) and 2001-2023 average
11.9 ... 1991-2020 (& 1994-2023) averages and 1988, 2007
11.8 ... 2002, 2012
11.7 ... 1981-2010 average
11.6 ... 1982, 1995
11.5 ... 1993, 1997
11.4 ... ... 1901-2000 average
11.3 ... 2005 .. 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average
11.2 ... 1981, 2019 (also 1980) ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2023 average of all data (11.24)
11.1 ... ... 1801-1900 average
11.0 ... 1986
10.9 ... 1985
10.8 ... 2015
10.7 ... 1991, 1994, 2010 ... 1659-1700 average
10.6 ... ... ... lowest 30-year average (1687-1716, to 1690-1719) _ also 10.65 (1873-1902)*
10.5 ... 2013
10.3 ... 1983
10.2 ... 2021
10.1 ... 1987
9.9 ... 1984 (also 1979)
9.2 ... 1996 tied 15th coldest with four other years, the coldest in recent years)
9.1 ... 1756 and 1877 tied 13th coldest
9.0 ... 1692,93,94,95 and 1782 tied 8th coldest
8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest
8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest
8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest
8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest
8.5 ... 1698 was coldest May
Extreme cold
4.2 ... mean for 1-5 May, 1979 (4.4, 3.7, 4.7, 4.4, 3.9)
3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877 (3.2, 3.2, 4.2)
3.1 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)
_____________________________________
* The secondary minimum came after two centuries of warmer Mays with 11.61 1820-49 the peak
Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Tuesday 30th of April to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties.
______________________________________
England and Wales precip (EWP) contest
Note: this is verified against the Hadley version of EWP (1766 to present),
The contest asks you to predict the average England and Wales precip in mm. These are the extreme values and recent averages.
151.8 ___ max 1766-2023 (in 1773)
142.4 ___ second wettest in 1782
140.7 ___ third wettest in 1967
122.7 ___ maximum 1981-2023 (in 2021) _ 118.4 in 2007 _ 115.2 in 1983
65.1 ___ average 1994-2023
64.1 ___ average 1766-2023 (all data)
63.6 ___ average 1981-2010
62.7 ___ average 1991-2020
10.3 ___ minimum 1981-2023 (in 2020) _ (13.7 (1991) previous)
07.9 ___ (min 1766-2023) in 1844
________________________________________________________________
Recent ... 2023_43.8 mm ... 2022 _ 59.4 mm ... 2021 _122.7 mm ... 2020 _ 10.3 mm ... 2019 _ 46.0 mm ... 2018 _ 51.9 mm ... 2017 _ 65.0 mm ...
2016 _ 61.7 mm ... 2015 _ 86.6 mm ... 2014 _ 102.8 mm ... 2013 _ 73.9 mm ... 2012 _ 57.4 mm ... 2011 _ 46.5 mm ... 2010 _ 38.3 mm ... ...
Enter the EWP contest in the same post as your CET temperature forecast. Scores are by rank order out of 10.0, 0.3 penalties per day late. Same deadlines apply as CET contest.
... Good luck in both contests ...
-
1
-
-
1778 as already discussed went from near-record warmth 1-13 Apr to near-record cold 14-27 Apr, and had a daily average of only 2.9 on 24th which was broken in 1908 so it isn't in list of records now, but 22 April is still there (3.4 C). 1873 also had very cold days near 3 C not staying as records after 1908.
I had a look to verify that no colder readings than 2.9 were broken by the 1908 and 1856 records. The 2.7 mean daily on 30 April 1945 is another case of a record low following warm April weather (record highs set 15-16 Apr).
After 2.5 on 23 April 1908 the second coldest average was 3.2 in 1857 (also 3.4 in 1827).
After 0.6 on 24 April 1908 the second coldest average was 2.9 in 1778 (also 3.2 in 1873).
After 1.8 on 25 April 1908 the second coldest average was 3.2 in 1816, 1873 and 1950. (also 3.5 in 1829).
After 0.7 on 29 April 1856 the second coldest average was 3.1 in 1782.
The -0.2 of 19 April 1772 was not further ahead of 1.7 in 1849 (also 2.3 in 1793, 2.4 in 1838 and 2.5 in 1809).
-
2
-
2
-
1
-
-
The 1908 late April cold spell set three daily CET records including 0.6 on 24 April; only 1856 (0.7 on 29 April) has any reading lower than 1.0 after the --0.2 of 19 April 1772.
Anyway, I looked into the question of a colder second half of April than Feb-Mar combined, and found six cases: 1809, 1815, 1859, 1884, 1903 and 1989. (note, Feb-Mar average is a daily average, only one of these cases (1903) actually yielded a late April decrease relative to both monthly means, as noted).
This was the top 12 of (otherwise) smallest increases, and the six actual decreases heading the list.
Least CET Increases second half April vs FEB -MAR
YEAR ____ 16-30 APR ____ FEB -MAR ______ difference __ FEB CET _ MAR CET
1903 _____ 6.0 ______________ 7.1 ___________ --1.1 _______ 7.1 _______ 7.1
1815 _____ 6.6 ______________ 6.9 ___________ --0.3 _______ 6.5 _______ 7.3
1884 _____ 5.6 ______________ 5.9 ___________ --0.3 _______ 5.3 _______ 6.5
1859 _____ 6.3 ______________ 6.5 ___________ --0.2 _______ 5.7 _______ 7.3
1809 _____ 5.8 ______________ 5.9 ___________ --0.1 _______ 5.7 _______ 6.0
1989 _____ 6.7 ______________ 6.8 ___________ --0.1 _______ 6.0 _______ 7.5
1938 _____ 7.4 ______________ 7.2 ___________ +0.2 _______ 5.1 _______ 9.1
1877 _____ 5.9 ______________ 5.5 ___________ +0.4 _______ 6.2 _______ 4.9
1849 _____ 6.5 ______________ 5.9 ___________ +0.6 _______ 5.7 _______ 6.1
1981 _____ 6.2 ______________ 5.5 ___________ +0.7 _______ 3.0 _______ 7.8
2017 _____ 8.2 ______________ 7.5 ___________ +0.7 _______ 6.2 _______ 8.8
Despite record cold 23-25 April, 1908 was +0.9 (Apr 16-30 5.7, Feb 5.3, Mar 4.3 avg 4.8), 12th place for smallest increases.
------------
So, it has happened six times that second half of April was colder than Feb-March average, but only one of those was colder than both Feb and March averages, the other five beat March but not Feb; of the other six in the list, with small increases, one beat Feb, three beat March, and two were slightly warmer than both.
-
2
-
2
-
1
-
-
Okay, I took a look at all cases of late April temperature drops relative to first fourteen days (only the warmest 8% of early Aprils were in first sample, granted they would stand a better than average chance of seeing a drop of 1.0+, just about the entire 50% below average first fourteen days would likely be excluded by seasonal trend alone) ...
... that leads to following table of all cases with drops of 1.5 C or more (a total of 51 out of 252 dropped by at least 0.1 C and 11 stayed level). ...
YEAR ___ CET 1-14 _ CET 1-30 _ decrease
1778 ___ 10.7 ___ ____ 8.2 ___ ___ 2.5
1815 ____ 9.9 ___ ____ 8.1 ___ ___ 1.8
1884 ____ 8.9 ___ ____ 7.2 ___ ___ 1.7
1859 ____ 9.1 ___ ____ 7.5 ___ ___ 1.6
1906 ____ 8.9 ___ ____ 7.3 ___ ___ 1.6
1835 ___ 10.1 ___ ____ 8.6 ___ ___ 1.5
1981 ____ 9.3 ___ ____ 7.8 ___ ___ 1.5
This list adds only four cases (1884, 1859, 1906, 1981) to identify all drops of 1.5+, now working on a program that can isolate cases where second half of April was colder than Feb - march. I wouldn't be surprised to find one or two.
-
1
-
2
-
1
-
-
So, on subject of April cooldowns, sam e list as I posted for record warm first 14 days, but now arranged not in order of CET but in order of size of cooldown. There could have been larger drops from less lofty starting points but as we are talking about warm starts transforming to near average end points, only these seem relevant.
YEAR ___ CET 1-13 _ CET 1-14 ___ end result __ CET drop 14 to 30 Apr
2024 ___ 11.53 ___ 11.39 ___ ___ ?? ?? ___ ___ ?? ??
1778 ___ 11.19 ___ 10.71 ___ ____ 8.2 ___ ___ 2.5
1815 ___ 10.42 ____ 9.93 ___ ____ 8.1 ___ ___ 1.8
1835 ___ 10.15 ___ 10.06 ___ ____ 8.6 ___ ___ 1.5
1926 ___ 10.59 ___ 10.47 ___ ____ 9.3 ___ ___ 1.2
1995 ___ 10.24 ___ 10.23 ___ ____ 9.1 ___ ___ 1.1
1803 ____ 9.93 ___ 10.07 ___ ____ 9.1 ___ ___ 1.0
1827 ____ 9.90 ____ 9.83 ___ ____ 8.9 ___ ___ 0.9
1894 ___ 10.42 ___ 10.29 ___ ____ 9.7 ___ ___ 0.6
1999 ___ 10.58 ___ 10.04 ___ ____ 9.5 ___ ___ 0.5
1792 ____ 9.95 ___ 10.16 ___ ___ 10.0 ___ ___ 0.2
2020 ___ 10.89 ___ 10.54 ___ ___ 10.5 ___ ___ 0.0
2014 ___ 10.35 ___ 10.31 ___ ___ 10.3 ___ ___ 0.0
1943 ___ 10.14 ___ 10.30 ___ ___ 10.5 ___ ___ up 0.2
1798 ____ 9.97 ___ 10.04 ___ ___ 10.3 ___ ___ up 0.3
1865 ___ 10.05 ____ 9.99 ___ ___ 10.6 ___ ___ up 0.6
2011 ___ 11.18 ___ 11.08 ___ ___ 11.9 ___ ___ up 0.8
-
3
-
1
-
1
-
-
Looks like 15 April will end a three-day run for 2024 at top of running CET (15th edged out 2011 at 11.1 C), and a seven-day run for top of running 31-day average (10.03 passed 1945 at 9.8, which tied 1803 in one dec). As both will be same (running CET) or higher (31-d) to 16th, 2024 will stop breaking these, and as you're discussing, probably won't return for any more spoils unless that warm spell at around weekend range locks in rather than yielding to cooler synoptics from north and east.
It has been snowing lightly here today after three days of 15-17 C sunshine, so it's a volatile time of year.
-
1
-
-
Well I promised to take a look back, and on page 185 of "spring weather" forum I found April 2011 CET contest thread, back in those days Summer Blizzard compiled lists of forecasts and had this posted on 2nd April, I have only copied those above 11.0 (and a few late forecasts by one day noted were all in a range of 9.9 to 10.7). Long-timers will know that Craig Evans was later Lettucing Gutted and was famous for predicting high numbers all the time (after a few years of less exotic punts when we started).
About one-third of current "regulars" were active then and a few other names have changed. If you want to know what you said for April 2011, have a look at the thread, it's interesting near the end too, as people discussed a historic month that had blown away a recent high set in 2007. Using CET legacy at the time, the scoring was done from 11.8. It has since changed to 11.9 in v2.0. So another win for Craig (to go with Dec 2015 and perhaps one or two others). Craig won on first entry at the time but now would be undisputed first.
I was amused to find that I had the same forecast in 2011 as I did this year, I hope it does as well but as you see one enthusiast went as high as 12.9 in 2011 (and finished about 8th using CET legacy).
11.0C: Tony H
11.1C: Don
11.2C: Glacier Point
11.5C: Roger J Smith
11.6C: Atlantic Flamethrower
12.0C: Craig Evans
12.9C: Backtrack
---------
I don't think anyone was complaining about April 2011, it was quite a dry and presumably sunny month and had pleasant warm spells all along its path. Near the discussion thread in the menu I noted a long-range forecast for summer 2011 that advertised a scorcher like 1976. Well ... the best weather of 2011 was probably in April and late Sep into early Oct.
Not sure if Atlantic Flamethrower is still active on Net-weather, but software would change username I think (and display it in Apr 2011 post), and the post is still under that name. Glacier Point is still active, I believe, in model discussion threads. I will check that point about changed user names, as I know at least three entrants in Apr 2011 now use different handles -- this is why I didn't post below 11.0, as I don't want to get into that domain. I'll let username-change people identify themselves, but the Craig Evans - Lettucing Gutted legacy in our contests is probably universally known (and celebrated) anyway. There were a couple of other temporary handles used too. The only reason I use my middle initial is because before I joined there was a Roger Smith (not me) who had joined up, but I don't think they stayed around very long (I joined in 2005 and NW started around 2003, the contests date back to around early 2006).
Wow, 13 years have gone by ... and we're still at it.
-
2
-
2
-
-
I agree, 75% of GFS dramatic cool-downs after seven days either fail to materialize or come in very weak and temporary. I don't know if it's a cumulative effect of climate warming overcoming what might have been good model development in an earlier setup, or a model flaw, but either way, it is well known even in "amateur" cli-met circles (people talk about it all the time on US weather forum too). Today (yesterday's running avg 11.5) could be our peak (hope not as it's also my forecast) but I would be surprised if we got much lower than 10.3 at any point.
Later on I will dive into the archives and see what happened in the April 2011 contest. (yes there was one ... this all started around 2006).
-
3
-
-
Dire or not, April 2024 is now top of the heap for running CET (was 0.1 back of 2011 after 12 days) ... to repeat an earlier post, top 20 include these:
YEAR ___ CET 1-13 _ CET 1-14 ___ end result
2024 ___ 11.53 ___ 11.39 ___ ___ ?? ??
1778 ___ 11.19 ___ 10.71 ___ ____ 8.2
2011 ___ 11.18 ___ 11.08 ___ ___ 11.9
2020 ___ 10.89 ___ 10.54 ___ ___ 10.5
1926 ___ 10.59 ___ 10.47 ___ ____ 9.3
1999 ___ 10.58 ___ 10.04 ___ ____ 9.5
1894 ___ 10.42 ___ 10.29 ___ ____ 9.7
1815 ___ 10.42 ____ 9.93 ___ ____ 8.1
2014 ___ 10.35 ___ 10.31 ___ ___ 10.3
1995 ___ 10.24 ___ 10.23 ___ ____ 9.1
1835 ___ 10.15 ___ 10.06 ___ ____ 8.6
1943 ___ 10.14 ___ 10.30 ___ ___ 10.5
1865 ___ 10.05 ____ 9.99 ___ ___ 10.6
1798 ____ 9.97 ___ 10.04 ___ ___ 10.3
1792 ____ 9.95 ___ 10.16 ___ ___ 10.0
1803 ____ 9.93 ___ 10.07 ___ ____ 9.1
1827 ____ 9.90 ____ 9.83 ___ ____ 8.9
(1945 ____ 9.77 ____ 9.91 ___ ___ 10.1)
(1850 ____ 9.75 ____ 9.74 ___ ____ 9.0)
(2007 ____ 9.52 ___ 9.86 ____ ___ 11.3)
Last three are not next consecutive but of interest.
You might recall that I had a table of record warm 31-day intervals when 2024 broke a few back in Feb.
We can now add 9 to 13 April as five additional such intervals taken down by 2024 (and no doubt also ending 14 Apr)
9.7 for 10-03 to 09-04 broke 9.6 in 1957.
9.8, 10.0, 10.2 and 10.3 broke values of 9.6, 9.5, 9.5 and 9.6 set in 2017 ending 10-13 April. Looks to be a sure bet for interval 15-03 to 14-04 to fall also.
In other words, if calendar months ended 9 to 13 April, 2024 would be warmest on record for them.
-
1
-
1
-
-
EWP scoring for contest year and April (based on est 75.0 and also 95.0 mm)
In tables below, first rank is current contest rank, second rank was rank after March.
Same logic applies towards end of row to average error ranks. Everyone participating so far is given "consensus + 5 mm" errors for months they do not enter. In this case, consensus+5 is 21.5+5 = 26.5.
Winter results (Dec to Feb) are listed at end of row in [ ] square brackets -- first is rank of points, second is rank of avg error for winter season.
Also in your scoring line, your forecast is followed by a rank based on result of 75.0 mm. This rank is your scoring level before late penalties. As you may already know, late forecasts are docked 0.30 points per late day (indicated in table below by ^ symbol). Identical forecasts are scored one-half scoring interval lower for each, so if you're in rank seven but identical forecast to rank six, your scoring level is actually 6.5 not 7 (etc for 3+ duplicates). Otherwise with 53 forecasts the scoring interval is 0.19 (10.00 to 0.12) allowing for a downward adjustment for wrong sign errors and range errors. (It is very similar to CET scoring except instead of getting extra points for accuracy, you lose extra points for inaccuracy, but the math works out similar).
Using an estimate of 75.0 creates a number of tied errors (e.g. 70mm and 80mm). Rank is currently not indicated as tied, higher forecast is ranked ahead of lower forecast. At end of scoring, these equal-error situations are ranked as ties, unless one is above and other is below normal which would separate their points totals although not scoring levels.
<<< TABLE WILL BE ADJUSTED AS NEEDED >>>
__ a second version is now posted after this version for 95 mm __
Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Apr _TOTAL _______ Apr ___ Avg ______________________________ [points, avg err]
now (Mar)_fcst (rank)_FORECASTER ________ EWP scoring (pts) __ error__ avg 5mo (Ranks, now and after Mar) __ [winter]
_01 _ 01 ___ 78.0 (05) __ Jeff C _________________ 9.24 __ 39.70 _____ 3.0 __ 29.82 mm _ 2 _ (t4) ... ... [2, 8]
_02 _ 05 ___ 75.0 (01) __ J 10 __________________10.00 __ 38.59 _____ 0.0 __ 29.34 mm _ 1 _ (6) ... ... [4, 6]
_03 _ 03 ___ 67.0 (09) __ Weather26 ___________8.48 __ 38.38 ______8.0 __ 33.70 mm _ 6 _ (12) ... ... [5,16]
_04 _ 09 ___ 70.0 (06)__ virtualsphere _________ 9.05 __ 34.57 ______5.0 __ 32.54 mm _ 3 _ (11) ... ... [24, 22]
_05 _ 16 ___ 77.0 (04) __ godber 1 ______________9.52 __ 33.16 _____ 2.0 __ 34.02 mm _ 7 _ (14) ... ... [6, 5]
_06 _ 12 ___ 85.5 (12) __ Polar Gael ____________ 7.91 __ 32.81 _____10.5 __ 38.74 mm_ 14 _(23) ... [25, 31]
_07 _ 02 ___111.0 (40) __ summer18 ___________2.59 __ 32.58 _____36.0 __ 33.34 mm _ 5 _ (2) ... ... [3, 2]
_08 _ 07 ___ 95.0 (23) __ Feb1991blizzard______ 5.82 __ 32.04 _____ 20.0 __ 35.22 mm _ 11 _ (8) ... ... [9, 9]
_09 _ 04 ___111.0 (41) __ DR(S)NO _____________2.49 __ 31.85 _____ 36.0 __ 38.62 mm_ t12_ (t9) ... ... [10,15]
_10 _ 10 ___ 97.0 (26) __Mr Maunder __________ 5.34 ___30.69 _____22.0 __ 41.62 mm_ 17_ (26) ... ... [23, 33]
_11 _ 24 ___ 74.0 (02) __ Reef ___________________9.81 __ 30.43 _____ 1.0 __ 39.54 mm_ 15 _(t30) ... ... [22, 29]
(11.8)_(16.4)_59.2 (19.8)___1994-2023 average__6.42__ 29.91 _____15.8 __38.70 mm _13.2_(20.0) ... [6.6,12.2]
_12 _ 21 ___ 84.0 (10) __ dancerwithwings _____8.29 __ 29.80 ____ 9.0 __ 43.62 mm_ 25 _(t39) ... ... [21, 36]
(12.2)(20.4)_ 63.2 (12.9)__1991-2020 average__7.74 _ 29.69 ____11.8 __ 39.46 mm_ 14.9 _(24.4) ... [11.4, 14.9]
(12.8)(21.2) _64.8 (11.4) _ 1981-2010 average _ 8.02__ 29.24 _____10.2 __ 40.58 mm_15.9_(27.3) ... [17.6, 22.8]
_13 _ 11 ___ 45.0 (32) __stewfox ______________ 4.05 __ 29.11 _____30.0 __ 34.38 mm _ 8 _ (3) ... ... [16, 4]
_14 _ 18 ___ 94.0 (22) __ February1978 ________ 6.01 __ 28.98 _____19.0 __ 38.62 mm_ t12_ (18) ... ... [11, 11]
_15 _ 17 ___100.0 (28) __ methuselah __________4.87 __ 28.10 _____25.0 __ 43.34 mm _ 24_ (27) ... ... [20, 28]
_16 _ 06 ___130.0 (48) __ Emmett Garland _____1.00 __ 28.07 _____ 55.0 __ 45.22 mm_ 30_ (17) ... ...[17,23]
_17 _ 14 ___110.0 (37) __ Frigid ________________ 3.34 __ 27.39 _____35.0 __ 32.82 mm _ 4_ (1) ... ... .. [7, 1]
_18 _ 08 ___127.0 (47) __ snowray ______________1.20 __ 26.91 _____ 52.0 __ 41.82 mm _18 _ (t9) ... ... [13, 12]
(19.0)(21.8) _96.5 (24) ____ Consensus_________ 5.63 __ 26.60 _____21.5 __ 44.12 mm_27.0_(32.5) ... [22.7, 30.5]
_19 _ 19 ___108.0 (34) __Metwatch _____________3.73 __ 26.59 _____33.0 __ 40.74 mm_ 16_ (15) ... ... [14, 13]
_20 _ 15 ___125.0 (46)^__ Don _________________ 1.10^__25.04 _____50.0 __ 42.22 mm _19_ (13) ... ... [8, 7]
_21 _ 38 ___ 70.0 (07) __ The PIT _________________8.95 __ 24.53 _____ 5.0 __ 48.22 mm_ 47_ (62) ... ... [27, t48]
_22 _ 13 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ noname_weather ____ --- --- __ 24.41 _____(26.5) __ 34.72 mm _10 _ (7) ... ... [ 1, 3 ]
_23 _ 23 ___110.0 (38) __ jonboy ________________ 3.24 __ 24.18 _____35.0 __ 47.34 mm_ 40 _ (35) ... ... [18, t26]
_24 _ 34 ___ 90.0 (19) __ weatherforducks ______ 6.76 ___23.79 _____15.0 __ 42.62 mm_t21 _ (32) ... ... [44, 38]
_25 _ 33 ___ 91.0 (20) __ rwtwm _________________6.39 __ 23.51 _____ 16.0 __ 46.42 mm_ 36_ (46) ... ... [38, 52]
_26 _ 26 ___110.0 (36) __ WYorksWeather _______3.44 __ 23.36 _____ 35.0 __ 47.46 mm_ 41 _ (36) ... .. [12, 17]
_27 _ 20 ___133.0 (51)__I remember Atlantic252__ 0.40 __ 23.17 _____58.0 __ 47.54 mm_ 44_ (22) ... ... [19, 18]
_28 _ 27 ___110.0 (35) __ Addicks Fan 1981 ______3.54 __ 23.05 _____ 35.0 __ 42.54 mm _20 _ (20) ... .. [40, t26]
_29 _ 31 ___104.0 (31) __ Stationary Front _______4.30 ___22.63 ____ 29.0 __ 50.42 mm_ 59 _(t51) ... ... [47, 61]
_30 _ 35 ___ 97.0 (25) __ Mulzy __________________ 5.44 __ 22.43 _____ 22.0 __ 48.02 mm_ 46 _ (47) ... ... [32, t46]
_31 _ 40 ___ 87.0 (13)^__davehsug ______________ 7.42^__ 22.04 _____12.0 __ 47.02 mm_ 38_ (t51) ... ... [34, 43]
_32 _ 36 ___ 53.0 (27) ___ summer blizzard ______5.04 __ 22.02 _____22.0 __ 49.02 mm _ 51_ (t51) ... ... [28, 51]
_33 _ 28 ___113.0 (43) __ Midlands Ice Age ______ 2.00 __ 21.20 _____ 38.0 __ 47.82 mm_ 45_(34) ... ... [37, 41]
_34 _ 29 ___112.0 (42) __chilly milly ______________ 2.20 __ 21.05 ____ 37.0 __ 42.62 mm_t21_ (19) ... ... [15, 14]
_35 _ 22 ___135.0 (52) __ Let It Snow! ____________ 0.20 __ 20.95 _____60.0 __ 46.22 mm_ 34_ (16) ... ... [30,t20]
(35.3)(40.5)_58.4 (20.6) __average of all data ____ 6.28 __ 20.71 _____16.6 __ 47.22 mm _39.0_ (47.3) ... [25.9, 34.8]
_36 _ 25 ___ ( --- ) ( -- ) __ SteveB _________________ --- ---__ 20.26 _____(26.5)__ 47.52 mm_ 43 _ (42) ... ... [35, 58 ]
_37 _ 37 ___107.0 (33)^__seaside60 _____________ 3.62^__19.62 _____32.0 __ 49.42 mm _ 52_ (t43) ... ... [43, t54]
_38 _ 32 ___115.7 (44) __ Roger J Smith __________1.80 __ 19.36 ____ 40.7 __ 47.22 mm_ 39 _ (29) ... ... [33, 29]
_39 _ 45 ___ 60.1 (16) __ Bobd29 ________________ 7.14 __18.82 _____ 14.9 __ 52.38 mm _65 _ (66) ... ... [48, 65]
_40 _ 46 ___ 89.0 (15) __ daniel* ________________ 7.43 ___18.68 ____ 14.0 __ 53.02 mm_ 68 _ (67) ... ... [42, 60]
_41 _ 32 ___ ( --- ) ( -- ) __ SLEETY _________________ --- ---__18.36 _____(26.5) __ 34.52 mm _ 9 _ (t4) ... ... [45, 10]
_42 _ 39 ___130.0 (49) __summer8906 ___________0.90 __15.53 _____55.0 __ 52.82 mm_ 66 _(t39) ... [41, 37]
_43 _ 53 ___ 89.0 (14) __ Weather Observer ______7.53 __15.21 _____14.0 __ 57.14 mm_ 71 _ (70) ... ... [57, 69]
_44 _ 56 ___ 83.0 (08) __ summer shower ________8.67 __14.92 _____ 8.0 __ 62.18 mm_ 75 _ (74) ... ... [53, 70]
_45 _ 41 ___131.8 (50) __KirkcaldyWeather ______ 0.60 __14.82 _____56.8 __ 48.90 mm _50 _ (24) ... ... [26, 19]
_46 _ 48 ___100.0 (30) __ syed2878 ______________ 4.67 __14.54 _____25.0 __ 64.22 mm_ 78 _ (73) ... ... [72, 73]
_47 _ 55 ___ 85.0 (11) __ Matt Stoke ______________ 8.10 __14.40 ____ 10.0 __ 43.82 mm_ 26 _(t39) ... ... [52, 34]
_48 _ 49 ___100.0 (29) __ Leo97t _________________ 4.77 __14.21 _____25.0 __ 59.22 mm _74 _ (69) ... ... [50, 67]
_49 _ 42 ___ --- --- (---) __ ScottD _________________ --- ---__ 13.42 ____(26.5) __ 44.64 mm _ 29_ (t30) ... ... [29, 25]
_50 _ 43 ___ --- --- (---) __ moorlander ___________ --- --- __ 13.13 ____ (26.5) __ 44.12 mm_ 27 _ (28) ... ... [31, 24]
_51 _ 44 ___ --- --- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover __--- --- __12.30 ____ (26.5) __ 42.92 mm _23 _ (25) ... ... [36,t20]
_52 _ 70 ___ 77.0 (03) __ Neil N __________________ 9.62 __12.21 _____ 2.0 __ 63.42 mm _77 _ (75) ... ... [70, 72]
_53 _ 47 __ -- -- ( --- ) __ Somerset girl ____________ --- ---__11.18 ____(26.5) __ 52.12 mm_ 64 _ (61) ... ... [39, 59]
_54 _(50) __120.0 (45) _ B87 _____________________ 1.60 __ 11.00 _____ 45.0 __ 44.60 mm_ 28 _ (21) ....... ( -- -- )
_55 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ____________________--- --- ___ 9.14 ____(26.5) __ 45.32 mm _ 31 _ (33) ... ... [46, 28]
_56 _ 62 __ 40.0 (34) __ shillitocettwo _____________3.70 __ 8.94 _____35.0 ___ 65.50 mm _79 _ (72) ... ... [64, 71]
_57 _ 52 ___ --- --- (---) __ John88b ________________--- --- __ 8.29 ____(26.5) __ 49.92 mm_t57 _ (t51) ... ... [49, t48]
_58 _ 75 __ 90.0 (18) __ sunny_vale ________________6.86 __7.10 _____15.0 ___ 49.80 mm_ 56_ (60) _ ... ... ( -- -- )
_59 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ jmp223 __________________--- --- __ 7.08 ____(26.5) __ 46.72 mm_ 37 _ (38) ... ... [51, 32]
_60 _(---) ___ 90.0 (17) __ Bluehedgehog074 ______ 6.96 __ 6.96 _____ 15.0 ___ 46.00 mm _ 33_ (---) ... ... first entry
_61 _(---) ___ 92.0 (21) __ Pulpstar _________________ 6.20 __ 6.20 ____ 17.0 ___ 46.40 mm _ 35_ (---) ... ... first entry
_62 _ 57 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ____________ --- --- __ 6.18 ____ (26.5) __ 45.92 mm_ 32_ (37) ... ... [54, 30]
_63 _ 58 ___ --- --- (---) __ Shaunado _______________--- --- __ 5.64 _____(26.5) __ 54.66 mm_ 70_ (65) ... ... [55, 64]
_64 _(---) ___ 96.5 (24) __ Thomas Green __________ 5.63 __ 5.63 _____ 21.5 __ 47.30 mm _ 42 _ (---) ... ... first entry
_65 _ 59 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ____________ -- -- __ 5.60 _____(26.5) __ 48.44 mm_ 49 _ (45) ... ... [56, 40]
_66 _ 60 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- __ 5.56 _____(26.5) __ 48.32 mm_ 48 _(t43) ... ... [58. 39]
_67 _ 61 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _______________ -- -- __ 5.45 _____(26.5) __ 52.92 mm _ 67 _ (63) ... ... [59, 62]
_68 _ 63 ___ --- --- (---) __Wade ____________________ -- -- ___ 4.96 _____(26.5) __ 63.12 mm_ 76 _ (71) ... ... [73, 66]
_69 _ 64 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ____________ -- -- __ 4.88 _____(26.5) __ 49.44 mm_ 53_ (48) ... ... [60, 44]
_70 _ 65 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ____________ -- -- __ 4.34 _____(26.5) __ 49.92 mm_t57_(t51) ... ... [61, t49]
_71 _ 66 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 __________________ -- -- __ 3.99 _____(26.5) __ 49.52 mm_ 54_ (49) ... ... [62, 45]
_72 _ 67 __ --- --- (---) __ snowblind ________________ -- -- __ 3.67 _____(26.5) __ 49.76 mm _ 55_ (50) ... ... [63, t46]
_73 _ 68 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow ________ -- -- __ 3.30 _____ (26.5) __ 50.92 mm_ 60 _ (56) ... ... [65, 53]
_74 _ 69 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ______________ -- -- __ 2.90 ____ (26.5) __ 51.32 mm_ t61_ (t57) ... ... [66, t54]
t75 _t71 __ --- --- (---) ___gazse9 ( -- ) _______________ -- -- __ 2.28 ____ (26.5) __ 51.32 mm_t61_ (t57) ... ... [t67, t54]
t75 _t71 __ --- --- (---) __ catbrainz __________________-- -- __ 2.28 ____ (26.5) __ 51.32 mm_ t61_ (t57) ... ... [t67, t54]
_77 _ 73 __ --- --- (---) __ Norrance _________________ -- -- __ 2.04 _____(26.5) __ 58.32 mm_ 72 _ (68) ... ... [69, 68]
_78 _ 74 __ --- --- (---) __ baddie ____________________--- ---__ 0.76 ____ (26.5) __ 53.46 mm_ 69_ (64) ... ... [71, 63]
_79 _ --- __153.0 (53) __ Met. ______________________ 0.00 __ 0.00 ____ 78.0 ___ 58.60 mm_ 73_ (---) _ first entry ...
-------------------
Version 2: 95.0 mm
Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Apr _TOTAL _______ Apr ___ Avg ______________________________ [points, avg err]
now (Mar)_fcst (rank)_FORECASTER ________ EWP scoring (pts) __ error__ avg 5mo (Ranks, now and after Mar) __ [winter]
_01 _ 07 ___ 95.0 (01) __ Feb1991blizzard_____10.00 __ 36.22 ______0.0 __ 31.22 mm _ 5 _ (8) ... ... [9, 9] ___
_02 _ 02 ___111.0 (28) __ summer18 ___________4.87 __ 34.86 ____ 16.0 __ 29.34 mm _ 2 _ (2) ... ... [3, 2] ___
_03 _ 01 ___ 78.0 (31) __ Jeff C _________________ 4.30 __ 34.76 _____17.0 __ 33.62 mm _ 7 _ (t4) ... ... [2, 8] ___
_04 _ 10 ___ 97.0 (05) __Mr Maunder __________ 9.33 ___34.68 _____ 2.0 __ 37.62 mm_ 13_ (26) ... ... [23, 33] ___
_05 _ 04 ___111.0 (29) __ DR(S)NO _____________4.77 __ 34.13 _____ 16.0 __ 34.62 mm_ 8 _ (t9) ... ... [10,15] ___
_06 _ 18 ___ 94.0 (02) __ February1978 ________ 9.81 __ 32.78 ______1.0 __ 35.02 mm_ 9 _ (18) ... ... [11, 11] ___
_07 _ 03 ___ 67.0 (41) __ Weather26 ___________ 2.40 __ 32.30 _____28.0 __ 37.70 mm _14 _ (12) ... ... [5,16] ___
_08 _ 05 ___ 75.0 (35) __ J 10 ___________________3.54 __ 32.13 _____ 20.0 __ 33.34 mm _ 6 _ (6) ... ... [4, 6] ___
_09 _ 17 ___100.0 (08) __ methuselah __________8.67 __ 31.90 _____ 5.0 __ 39.34 mm _ 22_ (27) ... ... [20, 28] ___
_10 _ 12 ___ 85.5 (18) __ Polar Gael ____________ 6.77 __ 31.67 _____ 9.5 __ 38.54 mm_t18 _(23) ... [25, 31] ___
(10.5)(21.8) _96.5 (24) ____ Consensus_________ 9.81 __ 30.58 _____ 1.5 __ 40.12 mm_23.0_(32.5) ... [22.7, 30.5]
_11 _ 14 ___110.0 (26) __ Frigid ________________ 5.43 __ 29.48 _____15.0 __ 28.82 mm _ 1_ (1) ... ... .. [7, 1] ___
_12 _ 19 ___108.0 (23) __Metwatch _____________5.82 __ 28.68 _____13.0 __ 36.74 mm_ 11_ (15) ... ... [14, 13] ___
_13 _ 06 ___130.0 (45) __ Emmett Garland _____1.60 __ 28.67 _____ 35.0 __ 41.22 mm_ 27_ (17) ... ...[17,23] ___
_14 _ 09 ___ 70.0 (39)__ virtualsphere _________ 2.59 __ 28.11 _____ 25.0 __ 36.54 mm _10 _ (11) ... ... [24, 22] ___
_15 _ 21 ___ 84.0 (20) __ dancerwithwings _____ 6.39 __ 27.90 _____11.0 __ 44.02 mm_ t43_(t39) ... ... [21, 36] ___
_16 _ 08 ___127.0 (43) __ snowray ______________2.00 __ 27.71 _____ 32.0 __37.82 mm _15 _ (t9) ... ... [13, 12] ___
_17 _ 16 ___ 77.0 (34) __ godber 1 ______________3.82 __ 27.46 _____18.0 __ 37.22 mm _12 _ (14) ... ... [6, 5] ___
_18 _ 35 ___ 97.0 (04) __ Mulzy _________________ 9.43 __ 26.42 _____ 2.0 __ 44.02 mm_ t43_ (47) ... ... [32, t46] ___
_19 _ 23 ___110.0 (27) __ jonboy _______________ 5.33 __ 26.27 _____15.0 __ 43.34 mm_ 34 _ (35) ... ... [18, t26] ___
_20 _ 33 ___ 91.0 (07) __ rwtwm _________________8.86 __ 25.98 ______4.0 __ 44.02 mm_ t43_ (46) ... ... [38, 52] ___
_21 _ 15 ___125.0 (42)^__ Don _________________ 1.90^__25.84 _____ 30.0 __ 38.22 mm _16_ (13) ... ... [8, 7] ___
_22 _ 11 ___ 45.0 (51) __stewfox _______________ 0.40 __ 25.46 _____50.0 __ 38.38 mm _17 _ (3) ... ... [16, 4] ___
_23 _ 26 ___110.0 (25) __ WYorksWeather ______5.53 __ 25.45 _____ 15.0 __ 43.46 mm_ 35 _ (36) ... .. [12, 17] ___
_24 _ 31 ___104.0 (17) __ Stationary Front ______6.96 ___25.29 _____ 9.0 __ 46.42 mm_ 56 _(t51) ... ... [47, 61] ___
_25 _ 27 ___110.0 (24) __ Addicks Fan 1981 _____5.63 __ 25.14 _____15.0 __ 38.54 mm _t18_ (20) ... .. [40, t26] ___
_26 _ 34 ___ 90.0 (13) __ weatherforducks ______7.90 ___24.93 _____ 5.0 __ 40.62 mm_ 25 _ (32) ... ... [44, 38] ___
(26.1)_(16.4)_59.2 (46.1)__1994-2023 average__1.38 ___24.87_____35.8 __42.70 mm _30.9_(20.0) ... [6.6,12.2] __
_27 _ 13 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ noname_weather ____ --- --- __ 24.41 _____(6.5) __ 30.72 mm _ 4 _ (7) ... ... [ 1, 3 ] ___
(27.7)(20.4)_ 63.2 (42.9)__1991-2020 average__ 2.02 _ 23.97 ____31.8 __ 43.46 mm_ 36.0 _(24.4) ... [11.4, 14.9] __
_28 _ 24 ___ 74.0 (37) __ Reef ___________________ 3.16 __ 23.78 ____21.0 __ 43.54 mm_t37 _(t30) ... ... [22, 29] ___
_29 _ 20 ___133.0 (48)__I remember Atlantic252__ 1.00 __ 23.77 ____38.0 __ 43.54 mm_t37_ (22) ... ... [19, 18] ___
(29.9)(21.2) _64.8 (42.1) _ 1981-2010 average _ 2.18__ 23.40 ____30.2 __ 44.58 mm_44.3_(27.3) ... [17.6, 22.8]
_30 _ 29 ___112.0 (30) __chilly milly ______________ 4.49 __ 23.34 ____ 17.0 __ 38.62 mm_20_ (19) ... ... [15, 14] ___
_31 _ 28 ___113.0 (32) __ Midlands Ice Age ______ 4.09 __ 23.29 _____18.0 __ 43.82 mm_ t40_(34) ... ... [37, 41] ___
_32 _ 37 ___107.0 (21)^__seaside60 _____________ 5.90^__21.90 _____12.0 __ 45.42 mm _ 49_ (t43) ... ... [43, t54]
_33 _ 22 ___135.0 (49) __ Let It Snow! ____________ 0.80 __ 21.55 _____40.0 __ 42.22 mm_ 30_ (16) ... ... [30,t20] ___
_34 _ 40 ___ 87.0 (16)^__davehsug ______________ 6.85^__ 21.47 _____ 8.0 __ 46.22 mm_ 55_ (t51) ... ... [34, 43] ___
_35 _ 32 ___115.7 (36) __ Roger J Smith __________3.35 __ 20.91 ____ 20.7 __ 43.22 mm_ 32 _ (29) ... ... [33, 29] ___
_36 _ 25 ___ ( --- ) ( -- ) __ SteveB _________________ --- ---__ 20.26 _____(6.5)__ 43.52 mm_ 36 _ (42) ... ... [35, 58 ] ___
_37 _ 46 ___ 89.0 (15) __ daniel* ________________ 7.43 ___18.68 _____ 6.0 __ 51.42 mm_ 67 _ (67) ... ... [42, 60] ___
_38 _ 32 ___ ( --- ) ( -- ) __ SLEETY _________________ --- ---__18.36 _____(6.5) __ 30.52 mm _ 3 _ (t4) ... ... [45, 10] ___
_39 _ 48 ___100.0 (10) __ syed2878 ______________ 8.47 __18.34 ______ 5.0 __ 60.22 mm_ 76 _ (73) ... ... [72, 73] ___
_40 _ 38 ___ 70.0 (40) __ The PIT _________________2.49 __ 18.07 _____25.0 __ 52.22 mm_ 68_ (62) ... ... [27, t48] ___
_41 _ 49 ___100.0 (09) __ Leo97t _________________ 8.57 __18.01 _____ 5.0 __ 55.22 mm _ 72 _ (69) ... ... [50, 67] ___
_42 _ 36 ___ 53.0 (50) ___ summer blizzard ______0.64 __ 17.58 _____ 42.0 __ 53.02 mm _ 69_ (t51) ... ... [28, 51] ___
_43 _ 39 ___130.0 (46) __summer8906 ___________1.50 __16.13 _____ 35.0 __ 48.82 mm_ 63 _(t39) ... [41, 37] ___
(43.8)(40.5)_58.4 (46.9) __average of all data ____ 1.22 __ 15.65 _____36.6 __ 51.22 mm _66.8_ (47.3) ... [25.9, 34.8] _
_44 _ 41 ___131.8 (47) __KirkcaldyWeather ______ 1.20 __15.42 _____ 36.8 __ 44.90 mm _48 _ (24) ... ... [26, 19] ___
_45 _ 53 ___ 89.0 (14) __ Weather Observer ______7.53 __15.21 ______ 6.0 __ 55.54 mm_ 73 _ (70) ... ... [57, 69] ___
_46 _ 45 ___ 60.1 (44) __ Bobd29 ________________ 1.79 __13.47 _____ 34.9 __ 56.38 mm _74 _ (66) ... ... [48, 65] ___
_47 _ 42 ___ --- --- (---) __ ScottD _________________ --- ---__ 13.42 ____ (6.5) __ 40.64 mm _ 26_ (t30) ... ... [29, 25] ___
_48 _ 43 ___ --- --- (---) __ moorlander ___________ --- --- __ 13.13 ____ (6.5) __ 40.12 mm_ 23 _ (28) ... ... [31, 24] ___
_49 _ 55 ___ 85.0 (19) __ Matt Stoke ______________ 6.58 __12.88 ____ 10.0 __ 43.82 mm_t40 _(t39) ... ... [52, 34] ___
_50 _(50) __120.0 (38) _ B87 _____________________ 2.97 __ 12.37 _____25.0 __ 40.60 mm_ 24 _ (21) ....... ( -- -- ) ___
_51 _ 44 ___ --- --- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover __ --- --- __ 12.30 ____ (6.5) __ 38.92 mm _21 _ (25) ... ... [36,t20] ___
_52 _ 56 ___ 83.0 (22) __ summer shower ________6.01 __12.26 _____12.0 __ 62.98 mm_ 77 _ (74) ... ... [53, 70] ___
_53 _ 47 __ -- -- ( --- ) __ Somerset girl ____________ --- ---__ 11.18 ____(6.5) __ 48.12 mm_ 62 _ (61) ... ... [39, 59] ___
_54 _(---) ___ 96.5 (03) __ Thomas Green __________ 9.61 __ 9.61 ____ 1.5 __ 43.30 mm _ 33 _ (---) ... ... first entry ___
_55 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ____________________--- --- ___ 9.14 ____(6.5) __ 41.32 mm _ 28_ (33) ... ... [46, 28] ___
_56 _(---) ___ 92.0 (06) __ Pulpstar _________________ 9.05 __ 9.05 _____3.0 __ 43.60 mm _ 39_ (---) ... ... first entry ___
_57 _ 52 ___ --- --- (---) __ John88b ________________--- --- __ 8.29 ____ (6.5) __ 45.92 mm _t53 _ (t51) ... ... [49, t48] ___
_58 _ 75 __ 90.0 (12) __ sunny_vale ________________8.00 __8.24 _____ 5.0 __ 47.80 mm_ 61_ (60) _ ... ... ( -- -- ) ___
_59 _(---) ___ 90.0 (11) __ Bluehedgehog074 ______ 8.10 __ 8.10 _____ 5.0 __ 44.00 mm _ 42_ (---) ... ... first entry ____
_60 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ jmp223 __________________--- --- __ 7.08 ____ (6.5) __ 42.72 mm_ 31 _ (38) ... ... [51, 32] ___
_61 _ 70 ___ 77.0 (33) __ Neil N __________________ 3.92 __ 6.51 _____ 18.0 __ 66.62 mm _78 _ (75) ... ... [70, 72] ___
_62 _ 62 __ 40.0 (52) __ shillitocettwo _____________0.20 __ 5.44 _____55.0 __ 69.50 mm _79 _(72) ... ... [64, 71] ___
_63 _ 57 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ____________ --- --- __ 6.18 ____ (6.5) __ 41.92 mm_ 29_ (37) ... ... [54, 30] ___
_64 _ 58 ___ --- --- (---) __ Shaunado _______________--- --- __ 5.64 _____(6.5) __ 50.66 mm_ 66_ (65) ... ... [55, 64] ___
_65 _ 59 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ____________ -- -- __ 5.60 _____(6.5) __ 44.44 mm_ 47 _ (45) ... ... [56, 40]
_66 _ 60 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- __ 5.56 _____(6.5) __ 44.32 mm_ 46 _(t43) ... ... [58. 39]
_67 _ 61 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _______________ -- -- __ 5.45 _____(6.5) __ 48.92 mm _ 64 _ (63) ... ... [59, 62] ___
_68 _ 63 ___ --- --- (---) __Wade ____________________ -- -- ___ 4.96 _____(6.5) __ 59.12 mm_ 75 _ (71) ... ... [73, 66] ___
_69 _ 64 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ____________ -- -- __ 4.88 _____(6.5) __ 45.44 mm_ 50_ (48) ... ... [60, 44] ___
_70 _ 65 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ____________ -- -- __ 4.34 _____(6.5) __ 45.92 mm_t53_(t51) ... ... [61, t49] ___
_71 _ 66 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 __________________ -- -- __ 3.99 _____(6.5) __ 45.52 mm_ 51_ (49) ... ... [62, 45] ___
_72 _ 67 __ --- --- (---) __ snowblind ________________ -- -- __ 3.67 _____(6.5) __ 45.76 mm _ 52_ (50) ... ... [63, t46] ___
_73 _ 68 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow ________ -- -- __ 3.30 _____ (6.5) __ 46.92 mm_ 57 _ (56) ... ... [65, 53] ___
_74 _ 69 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ______________ -- -- __ 2.90 _____(6.5) __ 47.32 mm_ t58_ (t57) ... ... [66, t54] ___
t75 _t71 __ --- --- (---) ___gazse9 ( -- ) _______________ -- -- __ 2.28 ____ (6.5) __ 47.32 mm_t58_ (t57) ... ... [t67, t54] ___
t75 _t71 __ --- --- (---) __ catbrainz __________________-- -- __ 2.28 ____ (6.5) __ 47.32 mm_ t58_ (t57) ... ... [t67, t54] ___
_77 _ 73 __ --- --- (---) __ Norrance _________________ -- -- __ 2.04 _____(6.5) __ 54.32 mm_ 70 _ (68) ... ... [69, 68] ___
_78 _ 74 __ --- --- (---) __ baddie ____________________--- ---__ 0.76 ____ (6.5) __ 49.46 mm_ 65_ (64) ... ... [71, 63] ___
_79 _ --- __153.0 (53) __ Met. ______________________ 0.00 __ 0.00 ____ 58.0 __ 54.60 mm_ 71_ (---) _ first entry ... ___
-------------------
-
1
-
-
Yesterday ran into fairly robust records and was below all, next two are a bit easier to crack:
11 Apr 2024 18.3 _____ 13.3 __________ 8.4
CET records:
11 Apr ... 21.8 (2020) ... 15.9 (1869) ... 11.5 (1981)
12 Apr ... 20.9 (2020) ... 14.5 (1939) ... 10.0 (1943,49)
13 Apr ... 19.3 (1945) ... 14.6 (1792) ... 10.3 (1939)-
1
-
-
That 11.6 after eight days is now third highest running CET, only lower than 12.0 in 1926 and 11.7 in 2011, fourth place now goes to 1999 at 11.3 ... 2011 takes over the lead from 9th with a tie (1778) on 13 April and a couple of interruptions by 1945 around 18th to 20th. At this point it looks like 2024 could hang around the lead for a while but will eventually fall back into the 10s after possibly reaching 12 C by Friday or Saturday. 2011 only reached 12.0 for running CET values on 24th and 25th. 1945 got close in its brief flare up.
-
1
-
-
EWP already near 40 mm and suggestions of a similar amount to be added by near end of April, some previous runs were drier (and warmer) than today's run.
No new records on Sunday, min of 8.8 was a bit below and other two values (12.1, 15.5) were further below.
-
1
-
-
You would have to suppose that in late April 1775 one of the nights stayed above 13 C if those daily averages are reliable.
I suppose the slow rise in record high minima is due to greater frequencies of clear skies in warmer weather patterns going later into spring? Looking at may, the records don't exceed 14 C very often, and 15.1 on 31st (1895) is highest.
-
2
-
-
WYorksWeather A record of 12.1 was set on 4 April, 1926.
As you mentioned, 12.0 on 6 April 2024 is a new record high min. Previous 10.6 (2014).
The daily mean of 14.9 was 0.3 short of record 15.2 (2011) and daily max of 17.7 was well short of 2011's 20.3 C.
For fast comparison future records to 13 April:
07 Apr ... 18.5 (1933) ... 14.5 (1859) ... 9.5 (2014)
08 Apr ... 20.5 (1969) ... 13.1 (2020) ... 9.6 (1937)
09 Apr ... 21.5 (2017) ... 13.8 (2017) ... 9.3 (1999)
10 Apr ... 22.1 (2020) ... 14.1 (2020) .. 10.9 (1937)
11 Apr ... 21.8 (2020) ... 15.9 (1869) ... 11.5 (1981)
12 Apr ... 20.9 (2020) ... 14.5 (1939) ... 10.0 (1943,49)
13 Apr ... 19.3 (1945) ... 14.6 (1792) ... 10.3 (1939)-
2
-
-
Looks like a temporary peak will occur around 13 or 14 April so for those dates, top running CET values are:
YEAR ___ CET 1-13 _ CET 1-14 ___ end result
1778 ___ 11.19 ___ 10.71 ___ ____ 8.2
2011 ___ 11.18 ___ 11.08 ___ ___ 11.9
2020 ___ 10.89 ___ 10.54 ___ ___ 10.5
1926 ___ 10.59 ___ 10.47 ___ ____ 9.3
1999 ___ 10.58 ___ 10.04 ___ ____ 9.5
1894 ___ 10.42 ___ 10.29 ___ ____ 9.7
1815 ___ 10.42 ____ 9.93 ___ ____ 8.1
2014 ___ 10.35 ___ 10.31 ___ ___ 10.3
1995 ___ 10.24 ___ 10.23 ___ ____ 9.1
1835 ___ 10.15 ___ 10.06 ___ ____ 8.6
1943 ___ 10.14 ___ 10.30 ___ ___ 10.5
1865 ___ 10.05 ____ 9.99 ___ ___ 10.6
1798 ____ 9.97 ___ 10.04 ___ ___ 10.3
1792 ____ 9.95 ___ 10.16 ___ ___ 10.0
1803 ____ 9.93 ___ 10.07 ___ ____ 9.1
1827 ____ 9.90 ____ 9.83 ___ ____ 8.9
(1945 ____ 9.77 ____ 9.91 ___ ___ 10.1)
(1850 ____ 9.75 ____ 9.74 ___ ____ 9.0)
(2007 ____ 9.52 ___ 9.86 ____ ___ 11.3)
Last three are not next consecutive but of interest.
-
3
-
-
Not too convinced by colder trends that far out with warmer trends in more reliable short term, but took a look anyway at cases of a warm first half of April that fell away later. These are the most prolific cases, identified by a peak or at least a value above 10.0 after the 7th and before 20th, and an outcome no warmer than 9.5. I listed them in order during the daily data period 1772 to 2023. These were quite frequent in 19th century and a bit less frequent after 1900.
I also listed a few "nearly" qualifying cases.
YEAR ____ Peak CET ___ Outcome ___ Details
1778 ____ 11.2 _ 13th ___ 8.2 _______ steady drop to end with 15th last average above 10 C.
1803 ____ 10.5 _ 17th ___ 9.1 _______ (earlier peak 11.5 2nd) _ just a gentle drop off after 10.1 22nd.
1815 ____ 10.4 _13th ____ 8.1 _______ 13.0 1st but peak for interval 7-15 listed - steady fall to 23rd, levelled off 24-30.
1826 ____ 10.0 _ 16th ____ 8.8 _______ 10.1 22nd, began to fall off sharply after 25th.
1827 ____ 10.3 _ 9th _____ 8.9 _______ lowest value 8.3 26th
1835 ____ 11.1 _ 9th _____ 8.6 _______ lowest value end of April.
1848 ____ 13.1 _ 4th _____ 8.2 _______ slow fall after still 10.6 7th, and value at end is lowest.
1850 ____ 10.2 _ 8th _____ 9.0 _______ slow decline and lowest value at end.
1857 ____ 10.2 _ 7th _____ 7.5 _______ steady fall after 10th, and value at end is lowest.
1859 ____ 10.6 _ 9th _____ 7.5 _______ fell to 7.1 22nd-23rd.
1867 ____ 10.0 to 8th ____ 9.3 _______ was 9.2 to 9.4 11th to end.
1884 ____ 10.5 _ 6th _____ 7.2 _______ steady fall to 23rd, levelled off 24-30.
1892 ____ 10.2 _ 7-10 ____ 7.3 _______ down to 7.0 19-20, slight recovery to 7.6 25th.
1899 ____ 10.0 to 7th ____ 7.8 _______ 7.3 by 22nd - 23rd.
1926 ____ 13.2 _ 3rd _____ 9.3 _______ slow cooling trend to mid-month (>10 to 17th), 9.1 26th lowest running CET value.
1985 ____ 11.3 _ 3rd _____ 8.3 _______ began to cool slowly 9-15 and recovered to 9.3 (19th) before a second drop.
1995 ____ 10.0 to 17th ___ 9.1 ______ 11.3 on 7th, slow fall to 18th, 9.0 several days towards end.
1999 ____ 11.5 _ 9th _____ 9.5 _______ (13.1 1st but secondary peak 9th) _ dropped below 10 on 15th, 8.7 19-21, recovered.
2002 ____ 11.5 _ 3rd _____ 9.3 _______ (10.1 to 7th, lowest value 8.3 16-17 April.)
did not qualify (drop was not very large)
(1894 ____ 10.6 _ 12th ____ 9.7 ______ only a small drop to 9.6 for several days 23rd-29th).
did not qualify (peak was too low or too early)
(1801____10.2 _ 4th _______ 8.3 ______ fell to 6.6 by 16th, recovered gradually (peak too early to join qualifiers.)
(1819 ___ 11.0 _ 2nd ______ 8.6 ______ slow and steady fall to end.)
(1843 ___ 10.7 _ 4th _______ 8.5 ______ fell rapidly to 7.3 by 13th, gradual recovery.)
(1930 ____10.4 to 3rd _____ 8.3 ______ fell to 7.3 22-23 April, recovered near end.)
(1974 _____ 9.9 _ 10th _____ 8.2 ______ a steady fall to end of April.)
(2008 ____10.4 _ 4th _______ 8.0 ______ fell to 6.6 by 18th, recovered gradually (peak too early to join qualifiers)
(2017 ____ 10.1 to 4th _____ 9.0 ______ was 8.8 26-29 April, an early peak and not a very sharp drop afterwards)//
1945 did not belong in this list but it can be noted that record low values occurred on 30 April after a peak running CET of 11.5 on 20th.
CONCLUSION: It would not be all that unusual for this April to drop off into 8s eventually, or even 7s, depending on when peak is achieved (if it gets above 11 C by about 12th I would say a drop into 8s would be fairly spectacular).
-
2
-
-
WYorksWeather Record CET high min for 6 April is 10.6 in 2014 and for entire month of April 12.4 (24th, 2007).
-
1
-
-
EWP scoring for contest year and March (result is 111.5 mm)
In table below, first rank is current contest rank, second rank was rank for winter season (results after Feb).
Same logic applies at end of row to average error ranks. Everyone participating so far is given "consensus + 5 mm" errors for months they do not enter. In this case, consensus+5 is 33.5+5 = 38.5.
Also in your scoring line, your forecast is followed by a rank based on result of 111.5 mm. This rank is your scoring level before late penalties. As you may already know, late forecasts are docked 0.30 points per late day (indicated in table below by ^ symbol). Identical forecasts are scored one-half scoring interval lower for each, so if you're in rank seven but identical forecast to rank six, your scoring level is actually 6.5 not 7 (etc for 3+ duplicates). Otherwise with 49 forecasts the scoring interval is 0.20 (10.00 to 0.40) allowing for a downward adjustment for wrong sign errors and range errors. (It is very similar to CET scoring except instead of getting extra points for accuracy, you lose extra points for inaccuracy, but the math works out similar).
Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Mar _TOTAL _______ Mar _ Avg
now (Feb/win)_fcst (rank)_FORECASTER ____EWP scoring (pts) __ error__ avg 4mo (Ranks, now and after Feb)
_01 _ 02 ___ 90.0 (15)^__ Jeff C ________________7.07^__30.46 _____21.5 __ 36.53 mm _t4_ (8) ...
_02 _ 03 ___ 88.0 (17) __ summer18 ___________6.77 __ 29.99 _____23.5 __ 32.68 mm _ 2 _ (2) ...
_03 _ 05 ___ 91.6 (12) __ Weather26 ___________7.77 __ 29.90 _____ 19.9 __ 40.13 mm _12_ (16) ...
_04 _ 10 ___129.0 (08) __ DR(S)NO _____________8.58 __ 29.36 _____17.5 __ 39.28 mm_ t9_ (15) ...
_05 _ 04 ___ 85.0 (21) __ J 10 ___________________5.96 __ 28.59 _____ 26.5 __ 36.68 mm _ 6 _ (6) ...
_06 _ 17 ___ 94.0 (08) __ Emmett Garland _____ 8.58 __ 27.07 _____ 17.5 __ 42.78 mm_ 17_ (23) ...
_07 _ 09 ___ 81.0 (24) __ Feb1991blizzard______5.36 __ 26.22 _____ 30.5 __ 39.03 mm _ 8 _ (9) ...
_08 _ 13 ___ 87.5 (20) __ snowray ______________6.17 __ 25.71 _____ 24.0 __ 39.28 mm _t9 _ (12) ...
_09 _ 24 ___104.0 (02)__ virtualsphere ________ 9.80 __ 25.52 _______7.5 __ 39.43 mm _ 11 _ (22) ...
_10 _ 23 ___ 95.0 (06) __Mr Maunder __________ 9.18 ___25.35 _____16.5 __ 46.53 mm_ 26 _ (33) ...
_11 _ 16 ___ 88.0 (19)^__stewfox ______________6.27^__25.06 _____ 23.5 __ 35.48 mm _ 3 _ (4) ...
_12 _ 25 ___ 95.1 (03) __ Polar Gael ____________ 9.58 __ 24.90 _____ 16.4 __ 45.80 mm_ 23 _ (31) ...
_13 _ 01 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ noname_weather _____ --- --- __ 24.41 ____(38.5) __ 36.78 mm _ 7 _ (3) ...
_14 _ 07 ___ 72.0 (35) __ Frigid _________________ 3.12 __ 24.05 _____ 39.5 __ 32.28 mm _ 1_ (1) ...
_15 _ 08 ___ 72.0 (36) __ Don ___________________3.02 __ 23.94 _____39.5 __ 40.28 mm _13 _ (7) ...
_16 _ 06 ___ 63.0 (42) __ godber 1 ______________1.64 __ 23.64 _____48.5 __ 42.03 mm _14 _ (5) ...
(16.4)_(6.6)_ 67.3 (39.7)___1994-2023 average__2.16 __ 23.49 _____44.2 __44.43 mm _20.0_(12.2) ...
_17 _ 20 ___ 82.0 (22) __ methuselah ___________ 5.76 __ 23.23 _____29.5 __ 47.93 mm _ 27_ (28) ...
_18 _ 11 ___ 68.0 (39) __ February1978 _________ 2.30 __ 22.97 _____43.5 __ 43.53 mm_ 18 _ (11) ...
_19 _ 14 ___ 76.5 (32) __Metwatch ______________ 3.72 __ 22.86 _____35.0 __ 42.67 mm_ 15_ (13) ...
_20 _ 19 ___ 78.0 (28)__I remember Atlantic252__4.65 __22.77 _____33.5 __ 44.93 mm_ 22_ (18) ...
(20.4)(11.4)__65.4 (41.2)__1991-2020 average__1.86 __ 21.95 _____ 46.1 __ 46.38 mm_ 24.4 _(14.9) ...
_21 _ 21 ___ 77.0 (29) __ dancerwithwings _______4.35 __ 21.51 _____34.5 __ 52.28 mm_ t39_ (36) ...
(21.2)(17.6) _71.5 (36.3) _ 1981-2010 average _ 2.88 __ 21.22 _____40.0 __ 48.18 mm_27.3_(22.8) ...
(21.8)(22.7) _78.0 (27) ____ Consensus___________4.75 __ 20.97 _____33.5 __ 49.78 mm_32.5_(30.5) ...
_22 _ 30 ___ 90.0 (13) __ Let It Snow! ____________ 7.57__ 20.75 _____21.5 __ 42.78 mm_ 16_ (t20) ...
_23 _ 18 ___ 70.0 (37) __ jonboy _________________ 2.72 __ 20.94 _____41.5 __ 50.43 mm_ 35 _(t26) ...
_24 _ 22 ___ 77.0 (30) __ Reef ____________________4.25 __ 20.62 _____34.5 __ 49.18 mm_t30 _ (29) ...
_25 _ 35 ___ 94.0 (10)^__SteveB _________________ 8.08^__20.26 _____17.5 __ 52.78 mm_ 42 _ (58.) ...
_26 _ 12 ___ 53.0 (48) __ WYorksWeather _______ 0.34 __ 19.92 _____ 58.5 __ 50.58 mm_ 36 _ (17) ...
_27 _ 40 ___ 94.0 (09) __ Addicks Fan 1981 ______8.48 __ 19.51 _____ 17.5 __ 44.43 mm _20_ (t26) ...
_28 _ 37 ___ 89.0 (16) __ Midlands Ice Age _______6.97 __ 19.20 _____ 22.5 __ 50.28 mm_ 34_(41) ...
_29 _ 15 ___ --- --- ( --- ) __chilly milly _____________ --- ---__ 18.85 ____ (38.5)__ 44.03 mm_ 19_ (14) ...
_30 _ 45 ___ 95.0 (07) __ SLEETY _________________ 9.08 ___18.36 _____16.5 __ 36.53 mm _ t4 _ (10) ...
_31 _ 47 ___ 95.0 (05) __ Stationary Front _______ 9.28 ___18.33 _____16.5 __ 55.78 mm_ t51 _ (61) ...
_32 _ 33 ___ 78.8 (26) __ Roger J Smith __________ 4.95 __ 17.56 _____32.7 __ 48.85 mm_ 29 _ (29) ...
_33 _ 38 ___ 82.0 (23) __ rwtwm _________________5.56 __ 17.12 _____ 29.5 __ 54.03 mm_ 46 _ (52) ...
_34 _ 44 ___ 90.0 (14) __ weatherforducks ______ 7.47 ___17.03 _____21.5 __ 49.53 mm_ 32 _ (38) ...
_35 _ 32 ___ 77.0 (31) __ Mulzy __________________4.15 __ 16.99 _____ 34.5 __ 54.53 mm_ 47 _ (t46) ...
_36 _ 28 ___ 74.0 (33) ___ summer blizzard ______3.52 __ 16.98 _____37.5 __ 55.78 mm _t51 _ (51) ...
_37 _ 43 ___ 88.0 (18)^__seaside60 ______________6.37^__16.00 _____23.5 __ 53.78 mm _t43_ (t54) ...
_38 _ 27 ___ 60.0 (44) __ The PIT _________________1.53 ___15.58 _____51.5 __ 59.03 mm_ 62_ (t48) ...
_39 _ 41 ___ 78.0 (27) __summer8906 ___________4.75 ___14.63 _____33.5 __ 52.28 mm_t39 _(37) ...
_40 _ 34 ___ 70.0 (38)^__davehsug ______________2.32^__ 14.62 _____41.5 __ 55.78 mm_ t51_ (43) ...
(40.5)(25.9)_65.5 (38.7) __average of all data ____3.14 __ 14.43 _____46.0 __ 54.88 mm_ 47.3_ (34.8)
_41 _ 26 ___--- --- (---) __KirkcaldyWeather ________--- ---___14.22 ____(38.5)__ 46.93 mm _24 _ (19) ...
_42 _ 29 ___ --- --- (---) __ ScottD __________________ --- ---__ 13.42 ____(38.5) __ 49.18 mm _t30_ (25) ...
_43 _ 31 ___ -- -- (---) __ moorlander _____________ -- -- __ 13.13 _____ (38.5) __ 48.53 mm_ 28 _ (24) ...
_44 _ 36 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover ___ --- --- __12.30 ____(38.5)__ 47.03 mm _25_ (t20) ...
_45 _ 48 ___ 72.5 (34) __ Bobd29 _________________ 3.32 ___11.68 _____39.0 __ 61.75 mm _66 _ (65) ...
_46 _ 42 ___ 60.0 (45) __ daniel* __________________ 1.43 ___11.25 ____ 51.5 __ 62.78 mm_ 67 _ (60) ...
_47 _ 39 __ -- -- ( --- ) __ Somerset girl _____________ --- ---__ 11.18 ____(38.5)__ 58.53 mm_ 61 _ (59) ...
_48 _ 72 ___ 95.0 (04) __ syed2878 ________________ 9.38 ___ 9.87 _____16.5 __ 74.03 mm_ 73 _ (73) ...
_49 _ 50 ___ 60.0 (42) __ Leo97t ___________________1.63 ___ 9.44 _____51.5 __ 67.78 mm _ 69 _ (67) ...
_50 _(---) __110.0 (01)^^ _B87 _____________________ 9.40^^_9.40 ______ 1.5 __ 44.50 mm_ 21 _ (---) _ first entry ...
_51 _ 46 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ____________________--- --- ___ 9.14 ____(38.5) __ 50.03 mm _ 33 _ (28) ...
_52 _ 49 ___ --- --- (---) __ John88b ________________--- --- ___ 8.29 ____(38.5) __ 55.78 mm_ t51 _ (t48) ...
_53 _ 57 ___ 67.0 (40) __ Weather Observer _______2.10 ___ 7.68 _____44.5 __ 67.93 mm _ 70 _ (69) ...
_54 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __ jmp223 __________________--- --- ___ 7.08 ____(38.5) __ 51.78 mm_ 38 _ (32) ...
_55 _ 52 __ --- --- (---) __ Matt Stoke ______________ --- --- ___ 6.30 ____(38.5) __ 52.28 mm_t39 _ (34) ...
_56 _ 53 ___ 43.0 (49) __ summer shower _________ 0.00 ___ 6.25 _____68.5 __ 75.73 mm_ 74 _ (70) ...
_57 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) ________ -- -- ___ 6.18 _____(38.5) __ 50.78 mm_ 37_ (30) ...
_58 _ 55 ___ --- --- (---) __ Shaunado _______________--- --- ___ 5.64 _____(38.5) __ 61.20 mm_ 65 _ (64) ...
_59 _ 56 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ____________ -- -- ___ 5.60 _____(38.5) __ 53.93 mm_ 45 _ (40) ...
_60 _ 58 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- ___ 5.56 _____(38.5) __ 53.78 mm_t43 _ (39) ...
_61 _ 59 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _______________ -- -- ___ 5.45 _____(38.5) __ 59.53 mm _ 63 _ (62) ...
_62 _ 64 __ 66.0 (41) __shillitocettwo ______________1.90 ___ 5.24 _____45.5 ___ 73.13 mm _72 _ (71) ...
_63 _ 73 __ 81.0 (25)^^__Wade ___________________4.56^^__4.96 _____30.5 ___ 72.28 mm_ 71 _ (66) ...
_64 _ 60 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ____________ -- -- ___ 4.88 _____(38.5) __ 55.18 mm_ 48_ (44) ...
_65 _ 61 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ____________ -- -- ___ 4.34 _____(38.5) __ 55.78 mm_t51_(t49) ...
_66 _ 62 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 __________________ -- -- ___ 3.99 _____(38.5) __ 55.28 mm_ 49_(45) ...
_67 _ 63 __ --- --- (---) __ snowblind ________________ -- -- ___ 3.67 _____(38.5) __ 55.58 mm _ 50_ (t46) ...
_68 _ 65 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow ________ -- -- ___ 3.30 _____ (38.5) __ 57.03 mm_ 56 _ (53) ...
_69 _ 66 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ______________ -- -- ___ 2.90 ____ (38.5) __ 57.53 mm_ t57_ (t54) ...
_70 _ 70 __ 55.0 (46) __ Neil N ____________________ 0.75 ___ 2.59 _____ 56.5 __ 78.78 mm_ 75 _ (72) ...
t71 _t67 __ --- --- (---) ___gazse9 ( -- ) _______________ -- -- ___ 2.28 ____ (38.5) __ 57.53 mm_t57_ (t54) ...
t71 _t67 __ --- --- (---) __ catbrainz __________________-- -- ___ 2.28 ____ (38.5) __ 57.53 mm_ t57_ (t54) ...
_73 _ 69 __ --- --- (---) __ Norrance _________________ -- -- ___ 2.04 _____(38.5) __ 66.28 mm_ 68 _ (68) ...
_74 _ 71 __ --- --- (---) __ baddie ____________________--- ---___ 0.76 ____ (38.5)__ 60.20 mm_ 64_ (63) ...
_75 _ --- __ 54.0 (47) __ sunny_vale ________________0.24^___0.24 ____ 57.5 ___ 58.50 mm_ 60_ (---) _ first entry ...
note: Ranks for normals and consensus are in decimal form, indicating where they are located relative to integer ranks of contest entrants.
-
1
-
-
The EWP table value is 111.5 mm. This will produce a few changes in EWP scoring and tables will be edited later today. I will copy the EWP scoring table as edited and display it in another post in a while; the best combined CET-EWP table will be edited in place.
B87 had the closest forecast at 110 mm, but with a two-day late penalty, so virtualsphere at second scoring level (9.80) was top score. The result was beneficial to DR(S)NO who gained about two points compared to the provisional scoring from 106 mm.
-
So I worked out daily averages for top ten, all are quite close and if Feb was a warmer contributor they tended to go down a bit, if Feb was a colder contributor, they went up. For 1734 I took a weighted average since there was no daily data. I added those values to tables above. 1957 went up a few ranks as its Feb wasn't very mild compared to most.
-
2
-
-
Top ten CET averages after JAN, FEB, MAR and APR ... I calculated them by simple arithmetic of adding four monthly values and dividing by four, no doubt the metoffice would come up with slightly different values using some other formula but the order is probably going to be same ...
Rank __ YEAR ___ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR ___ average** ____ 2024 needs to tie (20.6 so far)
_ 01 ___ 2007 ___ 7.0 _ 6.0 _ 7.3 _ 11.3 ____ 7.88 (7.90) _____ 11.0
_ 02 ___ 2020 ___ 6.4 _ 6.5 _ 6.8 _ 10.5 ____ 7.55 (7.55) ______ 9.6
_t03 ___ 1990 ___ 6.5 _ 7.3 _ 8.3 __ 8.0 ____ 7.53 (7.51) ______ 9.5
_t03 ___ 2014 ___ 5.8 _ 6.3 _ 7.7 _ 10.3 ____ 7.53 (7.53) ______ 9.5
_ 05 ___ 2002 ___ 5.5 _ 7.0 _ 7.6 __ 9.3 _____ 7.35 (7.32) ______ 8.8
_t06 ___ 1961 ___ 3.9 _ 6.9 _ 8.2 _ 10.0 _____ 7.25 (7.24) ______ 8.4
_t06 ___ 2011 ___ 3.8 _ 6.5 _ 6.8 _ 11.9 _____ 7.25 (7.21) ______ 8.4
_ 08 ___ 1957 ___ 5.5 _ 5.3 _ 9.2 __ 8.9 _____ 7.23 (7.25) ______ 8.3
_t09 ___ 1733 ___ 6.9 _ 6.0 _ 5.9 _ 10.0 _____ 7.20 (7.21) ______ 8.2
_t09 ___ 2022 ___ 4.7 _ 6.9 _ 8.0 __ 9.2 _____ 7.20 (7.18) ______ 8.2
11-21 are t11 1734&1779 (7.03), t13 1686&1943&2017&2019 (7.00) 17 1998 (6.95). 18 1999 (6.90)
and t19 1834&1921&1938 (6.88) ... several incl 2023 are t22 at 6.85
** average (second value in brackets is daily mean). A somewhat different order is created by using that method.
-
2
-
-
Two of the warmest seven-day intervals in April, against warmest seven days of April 2011 and 2018, include:
1893 ___ 1945 ___ 2011 ___ 2018
19-25 __ 14-20 __ 19-25 __ 16-22
14.3 ____ 11.8 ____ 13.3 ____ 11.1
16.7 ____ 16.3 ____ 13.4 ____ 13.2
15.8 ____ 17.1 ____ 15.5 ____ 17.0
13.9 ____ 14.4 ____ 15.4 ____ 17.7
13.0 ____ 14.6 ____ 15.9 ____ 14.5
13.9 ____ 14.6 ____ 13.5 ____ 14.3
15.0 ____ 14.8 ____ 12.8 ____ 14.5
avg _____ avg _____ avg _____ avg
14.66 ___ 14.80 ___ 14.26 ___ 14.61
In mid-April 1949, two days near 16 and a weekly average 12-18 of 13.8 C.
In April 2007, two intervals of about 3-4 days with comparable temps, not quite a sustained week to compare.
Then of course the end of April 1775, 26-30 April average was 16.7 (24-25 only 11.0, so a seven day average of 15.1 C).
These are the most impressive warm spells in April in the records. As the 1775 spell stayed warm into early may, it managed an average near 16 C for seven days if we include 1-2 may.
-
2
-
-
Apologies I did not really take in your request (?), are you actually wanting a revision to 11.6? (if you do there would be a late penalty to the time of your post, which looks to be two days? I see posting times in my own time zone which can be confusing for me.
So it's your choice, you didn't quite say "for sure I want to change to 11.6" but I didn't respond to it yesterday.
April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
In scoring estimates already posted, I added 95 mm as an option below original 75 mm tables. Anyway just a preview.
Will be on a break for about two weeks, some internet access but I won't be on line for most of ten days now to 30 April, any data questions etc may not be answered in usual prompt timing but I may get on briefly ... posted next contest already, and will try to get some of usual end of contest posts up on 1st before disappearing again for about five days on return portion of trip (going down to UT and AZ).