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Roger J Smith

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Roger J Smith last won the day on October 13 2018

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    Rossland BC Canada
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    forecast research on a global scale, thus an interest in UK weather as part of a larger research program that concentrates mainly on severe weather in North America.

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  1. So already the GFS has ripped up the plan for a new one, now the heavier rain is reserved for the southern counties of England, and parts of next week look a bit warmer again. That would change my outlooks from yesterday to something like 70 mm total EWP and 16.0 outcome for the CET. Minor differences in terms of contest scoring but major differences in terms of weather forecasts for regions. We can't seem to avoid the impending killer heat wave in store for us here however, forecasts are basically scaring people with numbers equalling all-time highs recorded in this part of the world (and it
  2. EWP now around 38 mm (33 to Sunday, +5 est Monday) ... GFS now goes on a rampage over Yorkshire later this month, not sure if it's that consistent with other guidance so large uncertainty on the 40-50 grid average to 30th that gets us to 78-88 mm but I'll take it after writing off anything much over 60 most of the last week or two. ... CET looks rather cool to end, probably will leak a bit and end up in the mid to high 15s. It is exceptionally warm in my part of the world this month (expecting a +4 C anomaly), looking back at other very warm Junes here, I see a general correlation with c
  3. The five largest May to June increases for CET ... the first one looks safe enough. These are all over a century ago, so I added the three largest ones since 1940. Rank ___ Year ___ MAY _ JUN ___ increase _01 ____ 1676 ___ 10.5 _ 18.0 ___ 7.5 _02 ____ 1817 ____ 8.7 _ 15.1 ___ 6.4 _03 ____ 1757 ____ 9.4 _ 15.7 ___ 6.3 t 04 ____1826 ___ 11.2 _ 17.3 ___ 6.1 t 04 ____ 1877 ____ 9.1 _ 15.2 ___ 6.1 (since 1940) __ _01 ____ 1941 ____ 9.7 _ 15.1 ___ 5.4 _01 ____ 1996 ____ 9.1 _ 14.3 ___ 5.2 _02 ____ 1968 ____ 9.8 _ 14.8 ___ 5.0 (The larges
  4. So the updates are now posted, they only gave 9 mm for that heavy rainfall in parts of southern England, to reach 28 mm by Friday 18th. My estimate for the Saturday 19th rainfall would be 4 mm (once again, some areas dry, locally up to 20 mm in southwest). That would get the total to 32 mm as of now. The ten-day GFS forecast adds about 20-30 mm. So outcome still looking like 50-60 mm range. A few places in southern England will likely have double that amount but it has been quite dry in the north for a change.
  5. Was just looking at that, will give an update tomorrow when they have integrated Friday's rain into the tracker, but it was 19 mm to Thursday plus whatever they give for Friday, looks like maybe 12-15 mm since more than half of the country was dry. Assuming it is somewhere in the low 30s, then the further rainfalls from GFS look like 20-30 mm for a finish in the 50-60 mm range.
  6. Since 1900 these are the only Junes to have a CET of 16.0 or higher on the 20th (and the outcomes) ... I included anything above 15.7 recently. YEAR ____ CET 20th _____ Final CET 1940 ____ 17.4 __________ 16.4 1970 ____ 16.9 __________ 16.4 1950 ____ 16.4 __________ 16.2 1917 ____ 16.3 __________ 15.2 1982 ____ 16.2 __________ 15.5 2006 ____ 16.2 __________ 15.9 1960 ____ 16.1 __________ 16.1 2017 ____ 16.1 __________ 16.0 1933 ____ 16.0 __________ 15.6 2004 ____ 16.0 __________ 15.3 (2003) ___ 15.9 __________ 16.1 (2007) ___ 15
  7. (a) CET Temperature forecast contest -- averages and extremes ... all years since 1981 are shown for comparison ... warmest 13 are bold type, middle 14 are italic type and coolest 13 are underlined. 25.2 ... 29th, 1948, and 25th, 2019, warmest daily means 19.7 ... 2006 (warmest July) 19.5 ... 1983 (2nd warmest) 19.1 ... 2018 (3rd warmest) 18.8 ... 1783 (4th warmest) 18.7 ... 1852, 1976 (tied 5th warmest) 18.6 ... 1995 (7th warmest) 18.5 ... 1921 (8th warmest) 18.4 ... 1757, 1808 (t 9th warmest) 18.3 ... 2013 18.2 ... 1989
  8. 16.7c to the 17th 2.9c above the 61 to 90 average 2.8c above the 81 to 10 average 2.6 above the 91 to 20 average ___________________________ Current high this month 17.7c on the 2nd Current low this month 16.1c on the 5th, 8th & 9th ================================================
  9. EWP around 17 mm now, was 13 mm to 16th, locally heavy but widespread near zero on 17th, estimate 4 mm average ... 10-day forecast has pockets of quite heavy rainfalls 80-100 mm but widespread 20-30 mm, here again, blend looks like perhaps 35 mm, so that adds up to around 52 mm by 28th, with some showery conditions depicted for end of month. If that heavier rainfall were to spread out more and have more widespread impact, then these estimates might be considerably low. For now would suggest 55-60 mm looks good, anything 40-100 mm has a chance.
  10. The current EWP is around 10 mm and the ten-day forecast is about 50 mm, with another 10-20 mm potential in days 11-15. That would get us most of the way to 80 mm for the month. Current CET projections would see the average falling slowly after mid-week, to the high 15s possibly by end of the month, although low 16s still quite plausible as the degree of cooling is rather slight overall.
  11. Now appears unlikely that 13th or 14th daily records will fall, provisionally just 18.2 yesterday and today looks about the same from a check of hourly temps, the northern half of the CET zone stayed rather cool. If Summer Sun doesn't happen to update the CET today, I'll do it after midnight, it will show 16.6 as the new value to 13th. The EWP will be on the rise apparently, each day the GFS has been showing a slightly different track for heavy rainfall later this week but the same grid average would apply anyway, as this heavy rain (around 70-80 mm) covers a small portion of the grid. A
  12. He said that about December because it's an anomaly that the CET has never hit 5.9 which is the closest to any monthly average that has a missing value. But you may have known that and were questioning why the 30th of June ... that's obviously a mis-speak for 13th of June, I would say. He figures that if the 13th of June enigma falls, then it's an omen for the December anomaly to fall as well. If it ever does fall, then the next one in line would be the missing 16.3 for June which has some chance of going soon. I just updated the full list of these "missing CET values closest t
  13. Continuing to stock this thread with material from the older version which is now back around page nine of the index. Missing CET values closest to the median MONTH ___ Missing values below average_ 1659-2020 average _Missing values above average JAN _______(-3.1 min) -2.7 to -2.2, _____________-1.9, -1.8, -1.7, -1.3, -1.2, -1.1, -0.5 ______ 3.3 _____7.2, 7.4 (7.5 max) FEB _______(-1.9 min) -1.5 to -1.2, -0.9, -0.8, _____________-0.6 to -0.3, -0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 1.1, 1.3 _______ 3.8 _____ 7.4, 7.6, 7.7, 7.8 (7.9 max) MAR _______ (1.0 min) 1.1, 1.3
  14. Looks as though the June 13 enigma survived, have not seen any hourly obs above 28 C in southern England today. What may not survive are two weak CET daily mean record highs, today is 20.5 (1818 and 1989) and 14th June is only 19.4 (1814). That is the only sub-20 daily mean record left in June and seems bound to fall soon if not tomorrow.
  15. CET seems headed for a finish in the 16s now, if we assume an average of 19 for today to Wednesday (five days) then an average of 16 for 17-30, it comes to a finish of 16.7 C. It would become another warm start - average second half case and fall back a bit from what I expect to be a 17.3 first half. Still one of the warmer Junes in recent decades if it happens that way. I think there's probably a wide range of possible outcomes here, you could imagine the cooler turn being a bit more definite taking the average down to high 15s or low 16s, or it could just turn into subdued warmth in the 17-1
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