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Roger J Smith

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Roger J Smith last won the day on December 24 2011

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    New Denver BC Canada
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    forecast research on a global scale, thus an interest in UK weather as part of a larger research program that concentrates mainly on severe weather in North America.

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  1. I hope it finishes below 1976 mainly because of the lack of extreme warmth (so far) on a daily record scale, the way 1976 anchored its long run of warmth with the notable heat in late June and early July. But it looks like a close-run thing from the latest model runs. In fact almost all of the top ten summers had a warmer day than this summer may achieve. I have limited internet time, if somebody wants to flesh that out, otherwise I will try to substantiate the idea when I have time later this month.
  2. July 2018 EWP scoring (Hadley version, 39.9 mm)  RANK ___ FORECASTERs ________ Fcst __ Error ___ Points  __ 01 __ Seasonality ____________ 40.0 ___ +0.1 ___ 10.0  __ T 02 __ Pegg24, Reef _________ 39.0 ___ --0.9 ____ 9.8   __ 04 ___ Doctor32 _____________ 38.0 ___ --1.9 ____ 9.4  __T 05 __ Rad Dendrite, Singularity _ 42.0 ___ +2.1 ____ 9.2   __ 07 __ Thundery Wintry Showers _ 35.1 ___ --4.8 ____ 8.8   __(07)__ consensus ____________35.1 ___ --4.8 ____ 8.8   __ T 08 _ J10, Mapantz __________ 35.0 ___ --4.9 ____ 8.6   __ 10 ___ Leo97T _______________45.0 ___ +5.1 ____ 8.2 __ 11 ___ Mulzy _________________33.0 ___ --6.9 ____ 8.0 __ 12 ___ ChrisBellnottheWxman ___ 32.3 ___ --7.6 ____ 7.8 __ 13 ___ weather-history _________ 32.0 ___ --7.9 ____ 7.6 __T 14 _ BornFromTheVoid, Godber.1_48.0 ___ +8.1 ____7.4  __ 16 ___ Chris . R _______________30.5 ___ --9.4 ____ 7.0 __ 17 ___ Dami __________________30.0 ___ --9.9 ____ 6.8 __ 18 ___ DKeane3 ______________ 49.9 ___+10.0____ 6.7 __T 19 __ Jonboy, Relativistic, Don __ 50.0 ___+10.1____ 6.5 __ 22 ___ Stargazer ______________ 29.3 ___--10.6____ 5.9 __ 23 ___ CheesePuffScott ________ 28.0 ___--11.9____ 5.7 __ 24 ___ Polar Gael _____________ 27.1 ___--12.8____ 5.5 __T 25 __ Captain Shortwave, _____________ Midlands Ice Age ___27.0 ___--12.9____ 5.3 __ 27 ___ Daniel* _______________ 53.0 ___ +13.1____ 4.9 __ 28 ___ Jeff C _________________54.0 ___ +14.1____ 4.7 __ 29 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather _______25.6 ___--14.3____ 4.5 __T 30__ Seaside60, DAVID SNOW _25.0 ___--14.9____ 4.3 __ 32 ___ AlexisJ9 _______________25.0 ___--14.9____ 4.1 (4.3 - 0.2) __T 33__ Dr(S)No, Bobd29 ________ 55.0 ___ +15.1____ 3.7 __ 35 ___ Roger J Smith __________ 57.5 ___ +17.6____ 3.5 _T 36__ Stationary Front, _______Emmett Garland, Norrance__ 22.0 ___--17.9____ 3.4 __ 39 ___ Steve B _______________ 20.3 ___--19.6____ 2.8  __T 40__ Diagonal Red Line, ________ The Pit, Duncan McAlister _ 20.0 ___--19.9____ 2.6 __ 43 ___ davehsug ______________ 61.0 ___ +21.1____ 2.0 __ 44 ___ Syed2878 ______________ 65.0 ___+25.1____ 1.8 _ (45) ___ average for 1981-2010 ___ 65.4 ___+25.5____ 1.7 __ 45 ___ TJM14 ________________ 14.0 ___--25.9____ 1.6 __ 46 ___ Terminal Moraine ________13.6 ___--26.3____ 1.4 __ 47 ___ 38*5 C _______________ 12.0 ___--27.9____ 1.2 __ (48) __ average for 1988-2017___ 71.1 ___ +31.2____ 1.1 __ 48 ___ EdStone _______________ 7.0 ___--32.9____ 1.0 __ 49 ___ Let It Snow! ____________ 84.0 ___+44.1____ 0.8 __ 50 ___ virtualsphere ___________ 89.0 ___+49.5____ 0.6 __ 51 ___ weather26 _____________112.0 ___+72.1____0.4 __ 52 ___ Lettucing Gutted ________ 200.0 ___+160.1___0.2 __ 53 ___ DeepSnowPlease _______ 340.0 ___+300.1___0.0  =========================================================   Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to July 2018) -- Hadley scoring  Rank __ Forecaster ________________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul __ TOTALS _____ NCIC rank  __________________________________________________________________ Had _ NCIC _01 ___ SINGULARITY _____________ 5.2 _7.0 _9.1 _7.7 _5.6 _8.4 _5.7 _9.2 __ 57.9 _ 59.2 ____ 01 _02 ___ POLAR GAEL ______________4.6 _9.0 _9.5 _2.6 _6.9 _9.8 _8.4 _5.5 __ 56.3 _ 56.9 ____ 02 _03 ___ JONBOY __________________8.8 _7.4 _6.7_10.0_9.4 _3.9 _0.6 _6.5 __ 53.3 _ 51.1 ____T-04 _04 ___ DON _____________________ 1.8 _5.7 _8.4 _8.3 _9.8 _4.7 _6.8 _6.5 __ 52.0 _ 49.8 ____ 07 _05 ___ J10 ______________________4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _7.7 _9.6 _4.3 _ 8.6 __ 51.4 _ 52.9 ____ 03 _06 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID _____ 6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _6.3 _9.6 _1.8 _7,4 __ 50.5 _ 51.1 ____T-04 T07 ___ SEASIDE 60 _______________ 5.8 _4.3 _5.2 _8.8_10.0_5.7 _5.9 _4.3 __ 50.0 _ 47.8 ____ 08 T07 ___ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WxMAN_9.4 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _3.7_4.1 _9.2 _7.8 __ 50.0 _ 50.7 ____ 06 _(09) __ consensus ________________5.2 _5.9 _5.4 _5.7_6.5 _5.9 _5.3 _8.8 __ 48.7 _ 49.3 ____ (08) _09 ___ NORRANCE _______________ 7.0 _2.2 _9.6 _9.3 _4.7_10.0_1.2 _3.4 __ 47.4 _ 46.5 ____ 09 _10 ___ STEVE B __________________7.4 _8.2 _3.5 _8.8 _9.4 _0.2 _5.3 _ 2.8 __ 45.6 _ 43.7 ____ 18 _11 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE _________3.4 _3.3 _9.1 _9.6 _3.2 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 __ 45.5 _ 47.0 ____ 10 _12 ___ MAPANTZ __________________5.2 _6.3 _1.9 _4.3 _5.6 _9.2 _4.3 _8.6 __ 45.4 _ 46.1 ____ 12 T13 ___ STEWFOX ________________ 7.0 _9.6 _4.0 _8.9 _6.9 _0.6 _8.2 _ ---- __ 45.2 _ 46.3 ____ 11 T13 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE _______2.0 _2.4 _8.9 _4.5 _1.8 _7.0 _9.4 _9.2 __ 45.2 _ 46.0 ____ 13 _15 ___ MULZY ____________________7.0 _8.8 _7.1 _0.9 _1.6 _7.2 _4.3 _8.0 __ 44.9 _ 45.5 ____ 14 _16 ___ DKEANE3 _________________ 7.2 _7.8 _5.6 _9.1 _3.5 _2.8 _2.0 _6.7 __ 44.7 _ 44.0 ____ 17 _17 ___ PEGG24 ___________________9.2 _5.1 _0.7 _6.2 _6.3 _1.2 _5.3 _9.8 __ 43.8 _ 44.8 ____ 15 _18 ___ BOBD29___________________3.2 _6.6 _5.0 _5.9 _8.4 _2.0 _8.8 _3.7 __ 43.6 _ 42.7 ____ 20 _19 ___ REEF _____________________ 8.6 _5.5 _2.8 _3.8 _1.6 _8.2 _3.0 _9.8 __ 43.3 _ 43.1 ____ 19 _20 ___ GODBER.1 _________________2.4 _7.2 _5.9 _3.5 _6.3 _8.6 _0.6 _7.4 __ 41.9 _ 44.3 ____ 16 _21 ___ STARGAZER _______________ 1.4 _9.6 _2.4 _7.1 _2.3 _5.1 _6.5 _5.9 __ 40.3 _ 40.7 ____ 22 _22 ___ DR (S) NO _________________ 9.6 _8.4 _1.2 _6.2 _5.6 _2.4 _2.4 _3.7 __ 39.5 _ 40.9 ____ 21 (23) ___ average 1981-2010 __________7.6 _6.6 _5.5 _5.0 _2.3 _7.3 _3.2 _1.7 __ 39.2 _ 38.5 ___ (24) _23 ___ SYED2878 _________________ 4.8_10.0_3.8_5.0 _3.2 _7.0 _3.2 _1.8 __ 38.8 _ 36.9 ____ 25 _24 ___ DAVID SNOW_______________ 2.2 _3.3 _9.5 _5.7 _4.7 _2.2 _7.0 _4.3 __ 38.9 _ 38.9 ____ 23 _25 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY _________0.6 _3.3 _6.1 _2.6 _9.6 _7.6 _0.8 _7.6 __ 38.2 _ 36.8____ 26 _26 ___ DAVEHSUG ________________1.0 _1.2_10.0_4.8 _9.4 _7.0 _1.0 _2.0 __ 36.4 _ 34.4 ____ 33 _27 ___ THE_PIT ___________________6.0 _1.0 _8.4 _1.4 _3.4 _9.2 _4.3 _2.6 __ 36.3 _ 35.5 ____ 30 (T27)__ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)_7.7 _8.3 _3.9 _3.4 _2.2 _7.3 _2.4 _1.1 __ 36.3 _ 35.8 ____T-29 _28 ___ SIMSHADY ________________ 7.8 _7.6 _0.4 _7.2 _9.4 _1.8 _---- _---- __ 36.2 _ 35.8 ____ 29 _29 ___ LET IT SNOW ! ______________---- _---- _7.9 _6.5 _7.5 _3.7 _9.6 _0.8 __ 36.0 _ 33.9 ____ 34 _30 ___ DOCTOR32 _________________1.6 _3.9 _6.7 _5.0 _2.7 _1.4 _5.3 _9.4 __ 36.0 _ 36.1 ____ 28 _31 ___ DAMI ______________________5.4 _3.9 _0.9 _5.7 _1.6 _8.2 _3.0 _6.8 __ 35.5 _ 34.9 ____ 31 _32 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER_______ ---- _---- _3.5 _8.8 _8.4 _2.6 _7.6 _4.5 __ 35.4 _ 37.2 ____ 24 _33 ___ ROGER J SMITH ____________ 0.2 _1.8 _6.7 _9.8 _3.9 _3.5 _5.5 _3.5 __ 34.9 _ 36.6 ____ 27 _34 ___ RELATIVISTIC ______________ 8.0 _2.2 _8.4 _1.2 _7.5 _0.4 _0.6 _6.5 __ 34.8 _ 31.2 ____ 40 _35 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE ________ ---- _---- _2.1 _6.9 _5.6 _7.6 _9.8 _2.6 __ 34.6 _ 34.6 ____ 32 _36 ___ JEFF C ____________________ 7.6 _4.9 _1.1 _3.3 _2.7 _4.7 _5.3 _4.7 __ 34.3 _ 33.5 ____ 36 T37 ___ TIMMYTOUR ______________ 10.0 _0.2 _6.5 _1.7 _---- _9.2 _6.3 _---- __ 33.9 _ 33.8 ____ 35 T37 ___ DANIEL* ___________________3.8 _5.1 _4.9 _4.3 _5.8 _5.1 _ ---- _4.9 __ 33.9 _ 33.3 ____ 37 _39 ___ WEATHER 26 _______________---- _4.5 _4.5 _9.5 _0.9 _5.3 _8.2 _0.4 __ 33.3 _ 32.7 ____ 38 _40 ___ STATIONARY FRONT ________ 1.2 _4.7 _6.5 _2.6 _0.7 _5.9 _7.4 _3.4 __ 32.4 _ 32.1 ____ 39 _41 ___ CHRIS. R __________________ 6.2 _0.6 _9.6 _7.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _7.0 __ 31.3 _ 31.0 ____ 41 _42 ___ VIZZY2004 _________________8.6 _8.6 _8.8 _2.6 _0.5 _---- _ ---- _---- __ 29.1 _ 30.0 ____ 43 _43 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE ___________ 4.4 _1.2 _6.7 _1.6 _9.4 _3.3 _1.8 _0.6 __ 29.0 _ 30.3 ____ 42 _44 __ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS 8.2 _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _7.2 _8.8 __ 24.2 _ 24.6 ____ 44 _45 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT _________----_---- _---- _---- _ ----_ 6.3 _9.0 _5,7 __ 21.0 _ 20.4 ____ 46 _46 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER___ 3.6 _0.8 _1.6 _3.3 _8.0 _---- _3.3 _---- __ 20.6 _ 22.4 ____ 45 _47 ___ ALEXISJ9 ___________________2.8 _6.1 _1.9 _---- _0.2 _1.0 _3.0 _4.1 __ 19.1 _ 18.7 ____ 48 _48 ___ B87 _______________________ ----_---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ 7.8_10.0_---- __ 17.8 _ 19.2 ____ 47 _49 ___ GREAT PLUM _______________ ---- _---- _8.4 _7.4 _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 15.8 _ 14.8 ____ 50 _50 ___ ED STONE __________________4.4 _1.6 _4.2 _1.2 _2.1 _---- _1.2 _1.0 __ 15.7 _ 15.8 ____ 49 _51 ___ FOZFOSTER ________________ ---- _5.5 _4.5 _3.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 13.8 _ 13.4 ____ 52 _52 ___ TJM14 _____________________ ----_---- _---- _---- _ ----_ 5.9 _5.9 _1.6 __ 13.4 _ 13.0 ____ 53 _53 ___ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ________---- _---- _---- _0.5 _7.1 _---- _----_5.3 __ 12.9 _ 14.6 ____ 51 _54 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN _____________ ---- _2.4_10.0_---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 12.4 _ 12.4 ____ 55 _55 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST ______ 0.8 _0.0 _3.5 _2.6 _---- _4.7 _---- _---- __ 11.6 __12.8 ____ 54 _56 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE _________ 9.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _1.4 __ 11.2 _ 11.0 ____ 56 _57 ___ SEASONALITY _______________ --- _--- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _10.0 __ 10.0 _ 10.0 ____ 57 _58 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ___________ 9.0 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 9.0 __ 7.6 ____ 65 _59 ___ NORTHWEST SNOW __________---- _---- _8.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 8.9 __ 9.5 ____ 58 _60 ___ LETTERBOXER ______________ ---- _---- _3.6 _---- _ 4.3 _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.9 __ 8.5 ____ 59 _61 ___ LEO97T_____________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ 8.2 ___ 8.2 __ 8.2 ____ 60 _62 ___ MP-R ______________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ 7.8 _---- ___ 7.8 __ 7.8 ____ 62 T63 ___ CORAM _____________________---- _---- _---- _7.7 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.7 __ 7.7 ___T-63 T63 ___ IAPENNELL __________________---- _5.9 _---- _---- _---- _1.8 _---- _---- ___ 7.7 __ 8.1 ____ 61 _65 ___ BOOFERKING _______________ 3.0 _4.5 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.5 __ 7.7 ___T-63 _66 ___ RICEY076 ___________________ ---- _---- _---- _6.9 _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 6.9 __ 6.9 ____ 67 _67___ MOORLANDER _______________ 5.8 _---- _---- _0.4 _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 6.2 __ 6.3 ____ 68 _68 ___ LF1002 ______________________----_---- _---- _---- _ ----_ 6.1 _---- _---- ___ 6.1 __ 7.0 ____ 66 _69 ___ JAMES M ____________________---- _---- _5.9 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 5.9 __ 5.9 ____ 69 _70 ___ ROSS90 ____________________ ---- _---- _5.4 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 5.4 __ 5.0 ___T-72 T71 ___ CASTELLANUS80 ____________ ---- _2.8 _2.3 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 5.1 __ 5.1 ___T-70 T71 ___ ROBBIE GARRETT ___________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ 0.8 _4.3 _---- ___ 5.1 __ 5.1 ___T-70 _73 ___ BACKTRACK_________________---- _---- _---- _5.0 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 5.0 __ 5.0 ___T-72 _74 ___ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ________---- _---- _4.7 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 4.7 __ 4.5 ____74 _75 ___ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM __ ---- _---- _---- _4.3 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 4.3 __ 4.3 ____75 _76 __ EMMETT GARLAND____________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _3.4 ___ 3.4 __3.4 ____76 _77 ___ MARK NEAL _________________---- _---- _---- _ 2.9 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 2.9 __ 2.9 ____77 _78 ___ MATT TARRANT ______________---- _---- _---- _ 2.8 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 2.8 __ 2.8 ____78 T79 ___ MORE SNOW ________________2.6 _ --- _---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 2.6 __ 2.6 ___T-79 T79 __ DUNCAN McALISTER___________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _2.6 ___ 2.6 __ 2.6 ___T-79 _81 ___ COLDEST WINTER ___________ ---- _---- _---- _ 0.2 _---- _---- _2.2 _---- ___ 2.4 __ 2.6 ___T-79 T82 ___ SKY FULL ___________________---- _---- _1.2 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 1.2 __ 1.2 ___T-82 T82 ___ 38*5 C _______________________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _1.2 ___ 1.2 __ 1.2 ___T-82 _84 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED _________ 0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.7 _0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.2 ___ 0.9 __ 0.4 ____T-84 _85 ___ WEIRPIG ___________________ 0.4 _---- _----- _----_---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- ___ 0.4 __ 0.4 ___T-84 _86 ___ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 ____---- _---- _0.2 _----_ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- ___ 0.2 __ 0.2 ____ 86 _87 ___ DEEP SNOW PLEASE _________ ---- _---- _---- _0.0 _---- _ ---- _----_0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 87 __________________________________________________________________________________ In the course of updating the Hadley scores, two errors were noted in the NCIC annual scoring table. (a) Godber.1 has 44.3 points, not 44.1 as shown. (b) the second entry in 60th position for TJM14 (total 8.2) should have been for Leo97T. (notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)
  3. The Hadley version of EWP was just marginally higher than the NCIC version, 39.9 mm. Nevertheless, this will generate slightly different scores for the alternate scoring version over in the contest thread. Look for an update by noon 10th or so. I am still on the road trip, got some better internet connections in the city of Grand Junction CO (current temp 37 C). Some like it hot.
  4. Where I live (southern BC) we had the same trends -- near normal mid-winter, cold late Feb and March persisting into early April, and near record warmth since late April. Western part of continents' climates responding in sync to high blocking index? SEA had a very large +5.0 F anomaly for July, probably also a top three for them. And also similar, just a lot of rather warm weather and few daily records set.
  5. Roger J Smith

    Daily C.E.T. Average Values 1772-2011

    July 2018 was the third warmest on record and fourth warmest month. 27th new record 22.5, replaces 21.9 (1948) 22-28 July mean 20.64 replaces 20.44 (1989) as second warmest for that interval. 23-29 July mean 20.20 replaces 19.77 (1900) as third warmest for that interval. 16 day spell of days 18.0 or warmer from 25th June to 10th July average CET of 19.36 ... not a top ten mean for these spells but tied fifth for duration. The interval 27 June to 27 July would have been a 19.3 C 31 day month.
  6. Tables of entries have been posted over in the contest scoring thread/ July EWP and annual update for NCIC version are also posted. I am returning to a long road trip now after taking three days to update weather forum contest work on three separate sites. August contest entries still welcome to midnight cutoff today, but the tables won't include them, J10 and I will try to remember to check this thread for any last minute entries.
  7. CET forecasts August 2018 21.5 __ LETTUCING GUTTED (12) 20.1 __ STEVE MURR (14) 20.0 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST (L1-8) 19.7__ SUMMER SUN (22) 19.3 __ OPTIMUS PRIME (L1-6) 19.2 __ warmest August 1995 19.1 __ PEGG24 (19) 19.0 __ EDSTONE (6), JEFF C (13), ROBBIE GARRETT (21) 18.9 __ LET IT SNOW! (17) GBRUNNER12 (18) 18.8 __ DOCTOR32 (L1-7) 18.6 __ STEVE B (42) THUNDERSNOWDAYS (54) 18.5 __ SINGULARITY (52) 18.4 __ STEWFOX (24) CHRISBELLnottheWxMAN (28) DEEPSNOW (30) J10 (51) DAVID SNOW (L1-3) 18.3 __ POLAR GAEL (3) DAMIANSLAW (38) DON (56). 18.2 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE (7) SEASIDE60 (36) NORRANCE (39) DAVEHSUG (L1-2) 18.1 __ SNOWRAY (23), BORNFROMTHEVOID (43) 18.0 __ DANCERWITHWNGS (9) THE PIT (49) KENTISH MAN (55) 17.9 __ ROGER J SMITH (20), CHEZWEATHER (26), DAMI (L1-4) ,,, ,,, consensus 17.8 __ LEO97T (4) BOBD29 (15) MAN WITH BEARD (41) MIDLANDS ICE AGE (48) 17.7 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT(10) REEF (40) EMMETT GARLAND (47)\ 17.6 __ POLAR MARITIME (8) I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 (31) MARK BAYLEY (33) MULZY (50) 17.5 __ DR(S)NO (25) 17.4 __ SUMMER BLIZZARD (16) STATIONARY FRONT (37) DANIEL* (45) 17.3 __ WEATHER-HISTORY (34) 17.2 __ SNOWYOWL9 (29), METALTRON (53) DUNCAN McALISTER (L1-5) 17.1 __ JONBOY (L1-9) 16.9 __ RELATIVISTIC (27) 16.8 __ GODBER.1 (L1-1) 16.7__ RADIATING DENDRITE (2) VIRTUALSPHERE (44) 16.6 __ ALEXISJ9 (35) 16.5 __ SYED2878 (32) ... average 1988-2017 16,4 __ average 1981-2010 15.9 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER (5) 15.5 __ TJM14 (1) 14.8 )__ WEATHER26 (11) 14.4 __ CHEESE (46) 12.9 __ coldest August 1912 ------------ --------------- 56 on-time forecasts plus nine more that are one day late numbers in brackets indicate order of entry, (L1-x) for the one day late set consensus (median) 17.9, ==================================================================== EWP forecasts August 2018 200.0 __ LETTUCING GUTTED 192.9 __ __ wettest August (1912) 112.0 __ WEATHER26 95.0 __ JONBOY (+1d) 90,0 __ EDSTONE 87.0 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST (+1d) 85.0 __ LET IT SNOW! 84.0 __ SINGULARITY, DAVEHSUG (+1d) 78.0 __ TJM14 76.0 __ ROBBIE GARRETT 75.9 __ average 1988-2017 75.0 __ DR(S)NO, SYED2878 74.0 __ ALEXISJ9 73.0 __ average 1981-2010 70.0 __ DON, DAVID SNOW (+1d) 67.0 __ STATIONARY FRONT 66.0 __ RELATIVISTIC 64.8 __ CHRISBELLnottheWxMAN 62.0 __ EMMETT GARLAND 56.0 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE 55.0 __ NORRANCE 52.0 __ POLAR MARITIME 51.0 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE 50.5 __ consensus 50.0 __ LEO97T, REEF, J10, DAMI (+1d) 48.0 __ JEFF C 47.0 __ WEATHER-HISTORY 46.0 __ ROGER J SMITH, STEVE B 45.0 __ BORN FROM THE VOID, DANIEL* (+1d) 44.0 __ GODBER.1 (+1d) 43.0 __ RADIATING DENDRITE 42.0 __ MULZY 40.0 __ STEVE MURR 38.5 __ POLAR GAEL 37.0 __ SEASIDE60 36.8 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER 35.0 __ DOCTOR32 (+1d) 33,0 __ BOBD29 30.0 __ THE PIT 26.0 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT 25.0 __ PEGG24 ... __9.1 __ driest August (1995) ----------------------- 37 on time forecasts, plus 7 marked one day late, 44 in total ... median for consensus is 50.5 mm. NOTE:Table posted 1100h 3rd, anything posted in the August thread after that time will not appear in the tables but still valid to midnight.
  8. Updated annual EWP contest leaders ... all stats can be seen over in the contest scoring thread.  Rank _ Forecaster _____________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul__TOTAL_ previous rank   _01 __ SINGULARITY ___________5.2 _7.2 _9.8 _7.7 _6.4 _8.0 _5.7 _9.2__ 59.2 ____ 02  _02 __ POLAR GAEL ___________ 4.6 _9.4 _8.6 _2.6 _8.2 _9.6 _8.4 _5.5 __ 56.9 ____ 01  _03 __ J10 ___________________ 4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _9.2 _9.8 _4.3 _8.6 __ 52.9 ____ 05  T04 __ JONBOY _______________ 9.2 _7.8 _6.4 _9.6 _7.5 _3.7 _0.6 _6.3 __ 51.1 ____ 04 T04 __ BORN FROM THE VOID___6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _7.5 _9.0 _1.8 _7.4 __ 51.1 ____ 06  _06_ CHRISBELL-nottheWxMAN _10.0 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _4.0 _3.9 _9.2 _7.8 __ 50.7 ____T-09  _07 __ DON __________________ 1.8 _6.1 _7.4 _8.3 _8.8 _4.3 _6.8 _6.3 __ 49.8 ____ 07 (08) __ consensus _____________5.2 _6.3 _5.0 _5.7_7.7 _5.3 _5.3 _8.8 __ 49.3 ____ (13) _08 __ SEASIDE 60 ____________ 5.8 _4.5 _4.8 _8.8 _8.4 _5.1 _5.9 _4.5 __ 47.8 ____ 08  _09 __ NORRANCE ____________ 7.0 _2.2 _8.4 _9.3 _5.4 _9.4 _1.2 _3.6 __ 46.5 ____T-09  _10 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ______3.4 _3.3 _9.8_10.0_3.6 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 __ 47.0 ____ 11
  9. July 2018 EWP scoring (NCIC version, 39.5 mm) RANK ___ FORECASTERs ________ Fcst __ Error ___ Points  __T 01 __ Seasonality ___________ 40.0 ___ +0.5 ___ 10.0 __ T 01 __ Pegg24, Reef __________39.0 ___ --0.5 ___ 10.0  __ 04 ___ Doctor32 _____________ 38.0 ___ --1.5 ____ 9.4 __T 05 __ Rad Dendrite, Singularity _ 42.0 ___ +2.5 ____ 9.2  __ 07 __ Thundery Wintry Showers _ 35.1 ___ --4.4 ____ 8.8  __(07)__ consensus ____________35.1 ___ --4.4 ____ 8.8  __ T 08 _ J10, Mapantz __________ 35.0 ___ --4.5 ____ 8.6  __ 10 ___ Leo97T _______________45.0 ___ +5.5 ____ 8.2 __ 11 ___ Mulzy _________________33.0 ___ --6.5 ____ 8.0 __ 12 ___ ChrisBellnottheWxman ___ 32.3 ___ --7.2 ____ 7.8 __ 13 ___ weather-history _________ 32.0 ___ --7.5 ____ 7.6 __T 14 _ BornFromTheVoid, Godber.1_48.0 ___ +8.5 ____7.4 __ 16 ___ Chris . R _______________ 30.5 ___ --9.0 ____ 7.0 __ 17 ___ Dami __________________30.0 ___ --9.5 ____ 6.8 __ 18 ___ Stargazer ______________ 29.3 ___--10.2____ 6.7 __ 19 ___ DKeane3 ______________ 49.9 ___+10.4____ 6.5 __T20 ___ Jonboy, Relativistic, Don __50.0 ___+10.5____ 6.3 __ 23 ___ CheesePuffScott ________ 28.0 ___--11.5____ 5.7 __ 24 ___ Polar Gael _____________ 27.1 ___--12.4____ 5.5 __T 25 __ Captain Shortwave, _____________ Midlands Ice Age ___27.0 ___--12.5____ 5.3 __ 27 ___ Daniel* _______________ 53.0 ___ +13.5____ 4.9 __ 28 ___ Kirkcaldy Weather _______25.6 ___--13.9____ 4.7 __T 29__ Jeff C _________________54.0 ___ +14.5____ 4.5 __T 29__ Seaside60, DAVID SNOW _25.0 ___--14.5____ 4.5 __ 32 ___ AlexisJ9 _______________25.0 ___--14.5____ 4.3 (4.5 - 0.2) __T 33__ Dr(S)No, Bobd29 ________ 55.0 ___ +15.5____ 3.7 __T 35__ Stationary Front, _______Emmett Garland, Norrance__ 22.0 ___--17.5____ 3.6 __ 38 ___ Roger J Smith __________ 57.5 ___ +18.0____ 3.0 __ 39 ___ Steve B _______________ 20.3 ___--19.2____ 2.8 __T 40__ Diagonal Red Line, ________ The Pit, Duncan McAlister _ 20.0 ___--19.5____ 2.6 __ 43 ___ davehsug ______________ 61.0 ___ +21.5____ 2.0 __T 44 __ TJM14 _________________14.0 ___--25.5____ 1.8 __T 44 __ Syed2878 ______________ 65.0 ___+25.5____ 1.8 _ (T46) __ average for 1981-2010 ___ 65.4 ___+25.9____ 1.4 __ 46 ___ Terminal Moraine _________13.6 ___--25.9____ 1.4 __ 47 ___ 38*5 C _________________ 12.0 ___--27.5____ 1.2 __ (48) __ average for 1988-2017____ 71.1 ___ +31.6____ 1.1 __ 48 ___ EdS ____________________ 7.0 ___--32.5____ 1.0 __ 49 ___ Let It Snow! ______________84.0 ___+44.5____ 0.8 __ 50 ___ virtualsphere _____________ 89.0 ___+49.9____ 0.6 __ 51 ___ weather26 _______________112.0 ___+72.5____0.4 __ 52 ___ Lettucing Gutted __________ 200.0 ___+160.5___0.2 __ 53 ___ DeepSnowPlease _________ 340.0 ___+300.5___0.0 ========================================================= Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to July 2018)  Rank _ Forecaster _____________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul__TOTAL_ previous rank  _01 __ SINGULARITY ___________5.2 _7.2 _9.8 _7.7 _6.4 _8.0 _5.7 _9.2__ 59.2 ____ 02 _02 __ POLAR GAEL ___________ 4.6 _9.4 _8.6 _2.6 _8.2 _9.6 _8.4 _5.5 __ 56.9 ____ 01 _03 __ J10 ___________________ 4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _9.2 _9.8 _4.3 _8.6 __ 52.9 ____ 05 T04 __ JONBOY _______________ 9.2 _7.8 _6.4 _9.6 _7.5 _3.7 _0.6 _6.3 __ 51.1 ____ 04 T04 __ BORN FROM THE VOID___6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _7.5 _9.0 _1.8 _7.4 __ 51.1 ____ 06 _06_ CHRISBELL-nottheWxMAN _10.0 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _4.0 _3.9 _9.2 _7.8 __ 50.7 ____T-09 _07 __ DON __________________ 1.8 _6.1 _7.4 _8.3 _8.8 _4.3 _6.8 _6.3 __ 49.8 ____ 07 (08) __ consensus _____________5.2 _6.3 _5.0 _5.7_7.7 _5.3 _5.3 _8.8 __ 49.3 ____ (13) _08 __ SEASIDE 60 ____________ 5.8 _4.5 _4.8 _8.8 _8.4 _5.1 _5.9 _4.5 __ 47.8 ____ 08 _09 __ NORRANCE ____________ 7.0 _2.2 _8.4 _9.3 _5.4 _9.4 _1.2 _3.6 __ 46.5 ____T-09 _10 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ______3.4 _3.3 _9.8_10.0_3.6 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 __ 47.0 ____ 11 _11 __ STEWFOX ______________7.0 _9.4 _4.0 _8.9 _8.2 _0.6 _8.2 _---- __ 46.3 ____ 03 _12 __ MAPANTZ ______________5.2 _6.8 _1.9 _4.3 _6.4 _8.8 _4.1 _8.6 __ 46.1 ____ T-14 _13 __ RADIATING DENDRITE ___ 2.0 _2.4 _8.7 _4.5 _2.0 _7.8 _9.4 _9.2 __ 46.0 ____ 18 _14 __ MULZY _________________7.0 _8.6 _6.7 _0.9 _1.8 _8.2 _4.3 _8.0 __ 45.5 ____T-14 _15 __ PEGG24 _______________ 8.0 _5.9 _0.7 _6.2 _7.5 _1.2 _5.3 _10.0 __ 44.8 ____ 22 _16 __ GODBER.1 _____________ 2.4 _7.4 _5.5 _3.5 _7.5 _10.0 _0.6 _7.4__ 44.1 ____ 19 _17 __ DKEANE3 ______________ 7.2 _7.6 _5.2 _9.1 _3.6 _2.8 _2.0 _6.5 __ 44.0 ____T-14 _18 __ STEVE B _______________ 7.4 _8.2 _3.5 _8.8 _7.5 _0.2 _5.3 _2.8 __ 43.7 ____ 12 _19 __ REEF __________________ 9.0 _5.3 _2.8 _3.8 _1.8 _7.4 _3.0_10.0__ 43.1 ____T-27 _20 __ BOBD29 ________________3.2 _7.0 _6.5 _5.9 _5.6 _2.0 _8.8 _3.7 __ 42.7 ____ 13 _21 __ DR (S) NO ______________ 9.8 _8.8 _1.2 _6.2 _6.4 _2.4 _2.4 _3.7 __ 40.9 ____ 17 _22 __ STARGAZER ____________ 1.4 _9.4 _2.4 _7.1 _2.7 _4.5 _6.5 _6.7 __ 40.7 ____ 24 _23 __ DAVID SNOW____________ 2.2 _3.3 _8.6 _5.7 _5.4 _2.2 _7.0 _4.5 __ 38.9 ____ 23 (24) __ average 1981-2010 _______7.8 _7.0 _5.1 _5.0 _2.6 _6.4 _3.2 _1.4 __ 38.5 ____ (18) _24 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER ___ ---- _ ---- _3.5 _8.8 _10.0_2.6 _7.6 _4.7 __ 37.2 ____ 30 _25 __ SYED2878 ______________ 4.8_10.0_3.8 _5.0 _2.2 _6.1 _3.2 _1.8 __ 36.9 ____ 21 _26 __ WEATHER-HISTORY _____ 0.6 _3.3 _5.9 _2.6 _9.2 _6.8 _0.8 _7.6 __ 36.8 ____ 36 _27 __ ROGER J SMITH _________ 0.2 _1.8 _8.1 _9.8 _2.7 _5.5 _5.5 _3.0 __ 36.6 ____ 26 _28 __ DOCTOR32 ____________ 1.6 _3.9 _6.4 _5.0 _3.1 _1.4 _5.3 _9.4 __ 36.1 ____ 41 _29 __ SIMSHADY ______________8.2 _8.4 _0.4 _7.2 _9.8 _1.8 _--- _ ---- __ 35.8 ____ 20 (T29)_average 1988-2017 (D 87-16) 7.9_8.3 _3.9 _3.4 _2.4 _6.4 _2.4 _1.1 __ 35.8 ____ (23) _30 __ THE_PIT ________________6.0 _1.2 _7.4 _1.4 _3.8 _8.8 _4.3 _2.6 __ 35.5 ____ 29 _31 __ DAMI __________________5.4 _3.9 _0.9 _5.7 _1.8 _7.4 _3.0 _6.8 __ 34.9 ____ 40 _32 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE ____ ---- _ ---- _ 2.1 _6.9 _6.4 _6.8 _9.8 _2.6 __ 34.6 ____ 33 _33 __ DAVEHSUG _____________ 1.0 _1.2 _9.1 _4.8 _7.5 _7.8 _1.0 _2.0 __ 34.4 ____ 31 _34 __ LET IT SNOW ! __________ ---- _----_ 8.8 _6.5 _4.7 _3.5 _9.6 _0.8 __ 33.9 ____T-27 _35 __ TIMMYTOUR ____________ 9.4 _0.2 _7.4 _1.7 _ ---- _8.8 _6.3 _--- __ 33.8 ____ 25 _36 __ JEFF C _________________7.8 _4.1 _1.1 _3.3 _3.1 _4.3 _5.3 _4.5 __ 33.5 ____ 37 _37 __ DANIEL* _______________ 3.8 _5.9 _4.7 _4.3 _3.4 _6.3 _---- _4.9 __ 33.3 ____ 39 _38 __ WEATHER 26 ___________ --- _ 4.7 _4.3 _9.5 _0.9 _4.7 _8.2 _0.4 __ 32.7 ____ 32 _39 __ STATIONARY FRONT ____ 1.2 _4.9 _6.4 _2.6 _0.7 _5.3 _7.4 _3.6 __ 32.1 ____ 38 _40 __ RELATIVISTIC __________ 8.4 _2.2 _7.4 _1.2 _4.7 _0.4 _0.6 _6.3 __ 31.2 ____ 42 _41 __ CHRIS. R ______________ 6.2 _0.6 _9.3 _7.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _7.0 __ 31.0 ____ 43 _42 __ VIRTUALSPHERE _______ 4.4 _1.0 _8.1 _1.6 _9.8 _3.0 _1.8 _0.6 __ 30.3 ____ 35 _43 __ VIZZY2004 _____________ 9.0 _9.0 _8.9 _2.6 _0.5 _ --- _---- _---- __ 30.0 ____ 34 _44 _THUNDERYWINTRYSHOWERS 8.6_--- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _7.2 _8.8 __24.6 ____ 46 _45 _ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER_3.6_0.8 _1.6 _3.3 _9.8 _ ----_3.3 _---- __ 22.4 ____ 44 _46 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT ____ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _5.7 _ 9.0 _5.7 __ 20.4 ____ 49 _47 __ B87 ___________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _9.2_10.0 _--- __ 19.2 ____ 45 _48 __ ALEXISJ9 _______________2.8 _5.5 _1.9 _---- _0.2 _1.0 _3.0 _4.3 __ 18.7 ____ 50 _49 __ ED STONE _____________ 4.4 _1.6 _5.3 _1.2 _1.1 _ --- _ 1.2 _1.0 __ 15.8 ____T-47 _50 __ GREAT PLUM ___________---- _---- _7.4 _7.4 _ ---- _---- _ ---- _---- __ 14.8 ____T-47 _51 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ____---- _---- _---- _0.7 _8.6 _---- _ ---- _5.3 __14.6 ____ 57 _52 __ FOZFOSTER ____________---- _5.3 _4.3 _3.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 13.4 ____ 51 _53 __ TJM14 ________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _5.3 _5.9 _1.8 __ 13.0 ____ 54 _54 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST __0.8 _0.0 _3.5 _2.6 _---- _5.9 _---- _---- __ 12.8 ____ 52 _55 __ RAIN RAIN RAIN ________ ---- _2.4_10.0_---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- __ 12.4 ____ 53 _56 __ TERMINAL MORAINE ____ 9.6 _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _1.4 __ 11.0 ____ 55 _57 __ SEASONALITY __________ --- _--- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _10.0 __ 10.0 ____ --- _58 __ NORTHWEST SNOW _____ ---- _---- __9.5 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _----__ 9.5 ____ 56 _59 __ LETTERBOXER __________---- _ ---- _3.6 _ ---- _4.9 _---- _---- _---- __ 8.5 ____ 58 _60 __ TJM14 _________________---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _8.2 __ 8.2 ____ --- _61 __ IAPENNELL _____________ ---- _6.3 _---- _---- _ ---- _1.8 _---- _---- __ 8.1 ____ 59 _62 __ MP-R __________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ 7.8 _---- __ 7.8 ____ 60 T63 __ BOOFERKING ___________ 3.0 _4.7 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.7 ____T-61 T63 __ CORAM _________________---- _---- _---- _7.7 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.7 ____T-61 _65 __ V FOR VERY COLD _______ 7.6 _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.6 ____ 63 _66 __ LF1002 _________________---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _7.0 _ ---- _ ----__ 7.0 ____ 64 _67 __ RICEY076 ______________ ---- _---- _---- _6.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 6.9 ____ 65 _68__ MOORLANDER __________ 5.8 _---- _---- _0.5 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 6.3 ____ 66 _69 __ JAMES M _______________---- _---- _5.9 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 5.9 ____ 67 T70 __ CASTELLANUS80 _______ ---- _2.8 _2.3 _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 5.1 ____T-68 T70 __ ROBBIE GARRETT ______ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _0.8 _4.3 _---- __ 5.1 ____T-68 T72 __ ROSS90 _______________ ---- _---- _5.0 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 5.0 ____T-70 T72 __ BACKTRACK____________---- _---- _---- _5.0 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 5.0 ____T-70 _74 __ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ___---- _---- _4.5 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 4.5 ____ 72 _75 _ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM_----_----_----_4.3_ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 4.3 ____ 73 _76 __ EMMETT GARLAND______---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _3.6 __ 3.6 ____---- _77 __ MARK NEAL ____________---- _---- _---- _2.9 _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- __ 2.9 ____ 74 _78 __ MATT TARRANT _________---- _---- _---- _2.8 _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- __ 2.8 ____ 75 T79 __ MORE SNOW ___________2.6 _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- __ 2.6 ____T-76 T79 __ COLDEST WINTER ______ ---- _---- _---- _ 0.4 _---- _---- _2.2 _ ---- __ 2.6 ____T-76 T79 __ DUNCAN McALISTER_____---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _2.6 __ 2.6 ____---- T82 __ SKY FULL ______________---- _---- _1.2 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 1.2 ____ 78 T82 __ 38*5 C _________________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _1.2 __ 1.2 ____---- T84 __ WEIRPIG ______________ 0.4 _---- _----- _----_ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 0.4 ____ 79 T84 __ LETTUCING GUTTED ____ 0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.2 _0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.2 __ 0.4 ____T-80 _86 __ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252---- _---- _0.2 _----_ ---- _---- _---- _---- __ 0.2 ____T-80 _87 __ DEEP SNOW PLEASE ____ ---- _---- _---- _0.0 _ ---- _---- _---- _0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 82 _____________________________________________________________________________ (notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)
  10. The NCIC version of the EWP is in already at 39.5 mm. This creates a three-way tie for top score of 10.0 ... the top ten for July follow RANK ___ FORECASTER ___ Fcst __ Error ___ Points __ 01 ____ Seasonality _____ 40.0 ___ +0.5 ___ 10.0 __ 01 ____ Pegg24, Reef ___ 39.0 ___ --0.5 ___ 10.0 __ 04 ____ Doctor32 _______ 38.0 ___ --1.5 ____ 9.4 __ 05 ____ Rad Den, Sing** _ 42.0 ___ +2.5 ____ 9.2 __ 07 ____ TWS, consensus _ 35.1 ___ --4.4 ____ 8.8 __ 08 ____ J10, Mapantz ____ 35.0 ___ --4.5 ____ 8.6 __ 10 ____ Leo97T _________ 45.0 ___ +5.5 ____ 8.2 ** full user names for t-5 and 7th ...Radiating Dendrite, Singularity, Thundery Wintry Showers. >>> Look for a complete scoring update in the contest thread by late today or early Friday. Annual standings will also be updated. (Hadley EWP value scoring also made available at some point later this month).
  11. Congrats to Terminal Moraine who was on the money for this fourth warmest month ever. Polar Gael, Duncan McAlister, and Emmett Garland appear to be 2nd through 4th (same 0.1 errors, order of entry for scoring differences ... Metaltron made a wise late revision to 19.3 but will finish behind a group of five at 18.9. Now, here's an update on our non-human competition ... Update on CET scoring for consensus and two recent normals (Dec-July)  ___ Past months ____ ____________DEC _________________________ JAN ________________________ FEB "Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) 1987-2016*__ +0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 (88-17)>--0.6 __66.7 - 74.1 _ 15 to 19 ______ +1.9 _ 31.2 - 35.1 _ 51 to 54 1981-2010 __ --0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 ______ --0.9 __ 50.0 - 55.6 _ 25 to 28 ______ +1.5 _ 48.1 - 49.4 _ 40 to 41 Consensus __--0.6 __ 71.0 - 74.9 __20 to 23 _____--0.9 __ 50.0 -55.6 _ 25 to 28 _______+1.1 _ 57.1 - 58.4 _ 33 to 34 * becomes 1988-2017 from JAN onward. ____________ MAR ___________________________________ APR _____________________ MAY ____________ "Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) 1988-2017 __ +1.9 __ 20.8 - 22.1 __ 60 to 61 ____ --1.1 __ 72.2--72,2 __ 18 to 18 _____ --1.3 _ 28.6 - 33.3 _ 43 to 46 1981-2010 __ +1.7 __ 26.1 - 26.1 __ 57 to 57 ____ --1.3 __ 57.4--65.6 __ 22 to 27 _____ --1.5 _ 19.1 - 20.5 _ 51 to 52 Consensus __--0.3 __ 78.9 - 85.5 __12 to 17 ____ --1.4 __ 50.8--55.8 __ 28 to 31 ______ --1.0 _ 46.1 - 54.0 _ 30 to 35 ______________JUN _______________________ "Forecaster" _Jun Error_ Jun Points (range)_rank (range) 1988-2017 ___ --1.5 _____ 12.0 - 12.0 ____ 57 to 57 1981-2010 ___ --1.6 _____ 04.1 - 10.4 ____ 58 to 62 Consensus ___--0.3 _____ 74.9 - 82.7 ____ 12 to 17 ________ Current Month __ July 2018 ________________ Contest year averages to date (8 mo)___ "Forecaster" _July Error_July Points (range)_rank (range) // mean abs error_mean points_mean rank 1988-2017 ___ --2.4 _____ 03.1 - 03.1 ____ 63 to 63 ________ 1.36 _____ 40.5 - 43.4 __ 40 to 42 1981-2010 ___ --2.4 _____ 03.1 - 03.1 ____ 63 to 63 ________ 1.39 _____ 37.2 - 40.7 __ 41 to 43 Consensus ___--0.9 _____ 51.6 - 53.2 ____ 31 to 32 ________ 0.81 _____ 60.0 - 66.2 __ 24 to 28 ___________________________________________________________________________ Consensus continues to pull away from the random normals this month. Unlike last year, though, consensus is well out of the top ten and ranking in the mid 20s. The two normals are now in the bottom third of the scoring table. 3
  12. or 2015, oh wait it's BFTP, my bad.
  13. The various late forecasts have moved consensus CET up one rung to 18.0 ... the EWP may change marginally but the spread of seven new calls is similar to the original 37 where consensus was 51 mm. I am on a long vacation road trip but taking a working break from it at a motel in Nevada, temp here the past three days has been 43 C daytime and 25 C or higher at night. You get used to it. Have seen some nice monsoon storm clouds mostly off to the southeast of where we are. The relevance of this is that I will be posting tables of entries on the 3rd before the absolute deadline and may not see the official EWP for quite a few days after we get back to the road trip. Won't be home until 22nd August but would imagine having one day of internet contact around 10th to catch up, so if no scoring appears for EWP (July) until then, be patient as it will eventually happen. Anyone is welcome to list the winners based on either NCIC or Hadley figures (I score both separately). Looks to me like 35-40 mm might do best? July entries can be seen over in the contest scoring thread. Okay, as to July 2018, hoping BFTV can update on how that highest minimum daily value situation played out, and could somebody confirm there was one daily record 22.5 on 27th (formerly 21.9 1948). For such a warm month, very few daily record threats. However, Feb 1779 lost all of theirs since setting quite a few no doubt (1772 to 1779 not a very rich harvest of mild days). I had a brief look at the final values and from what I recall of a previous post I made, 11 days of 20+ is third place behind 2006 and 1983. Apologies if somebody has posted on these subjects, I am trying to score or tabulate three different contests and hydrate all at the same time.
  14. 1981-2010 CET averages and extremes 1772 to 2017  Date ____ Avg CET ___ cum CET ____ MAX 1772-2017 __ MIN 1772-2017 _01______ 16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.9 1995 _____ 11.9 1888  _02 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.6 1995 _____ 11.6 1822  _03 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.4 1990 _____ 10.5 1912 _04______ 17.0 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.4 1975 _____ 11.3 1812 _05 ______17.3 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.1 2003 _____ 11.3 1812 _06 ______17.2 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.5 2003 _____ 11.2 1823&1860 _07______ 16.9 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.8 1975 _____ 11.6 1898 _08 ______16.8 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.7 1975 _____ 11.5 1823 _09 ______16.9 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.9 2003 _____ 11.0 1931 _10______ 16.8 _______ 16.9 _______ 22.5 1773&1997__10.8 1892 _11 ______16.7 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.6 1997 _____ 10.8 1902 _12 ______16.8 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.2 1911 _____ 10.5 1912 _13______ 16.3 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.6 1911 _____ 10.5 1881  _14 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.3 1911 _____ 10.8 1912 _15 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1893 _____ 10.3 1829 _16______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1947 ______ 9.5 1888 _17 ______16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.4 1876 _____ 10.9 1888 _18 ______16.6 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.6 1893 _____ 10.3 1830 _19 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.8 1932 _____ 10.4 1839 _20 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.9 1995 _____ 10.5 1920 _21 ______16.4 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1984 ______ 9.8 1850 _22______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.4 1817 _23 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.3 1877 _24 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 21.5 1990 ______ 9.1 1864 _25______ 15.8 _______ 16.7 ________ 20.9 1899 _____ 10.5 1787,1843&1864 _26 ______15.7 _______ 16.6 ________ 20.6 1870 ______ 8.8 1864 _27 ______15.4 _______ 16.6 ________ 22.8 1930 _____ 11.0 1885&1890 _28______ 15.1 _______ 16.5 ________ 23.0 1942 _____ 10.5 1919 _29 ______15.3 _______ 16.5 ________ 20.6 1930 ______ 9.1 1812 _30 ______15.5 _______ 16.5 _______ 19.8 1808&2008__ 9.5 1890  _31 ______15.2 _______ 16.4________ 21.3 1906 ______ 9.2 1833 __________________________________________________________________ The most recent record minimum CET daily mean in August was on the 9th of 1931. I would like to see that low Aug 30 record max replaced, should be a piece of cake for 2018. 3-day mean of 9.5 24-26 Aug 1864 ... beaches deserted I would imagine.
  15. This is a summary of the forecasts so far. I will post the usual tables around the 3rd over in the contest scoring thread. Numbers in brackets following CET forecaster name codes are order of entry, not a factor in the EWP portion. CET forecasts 21.5 LG (12) ...20.1 SM (14) ... 19.7 SS (22) 19.1 PEG (19) ...19.0 EDS (6), JEF (13), ROB (21) 18.9 LIS (17) GBR (18) ...18.6 STE (42) THU (54) ... 18.5 SIN (52) 18.4 STEW (24) CHR (28) DEEP (30) J10 (51) 18.3 PG (3) DAM (38) DON (56)... 18.2 CAP (7) SEA (36) NOR (39) 18.1 SNOW (23), BFTV (43) ... 18.0 DWW (9) PIT (49) KMAN (55) 17.9 RJS (20), CHEZ (26) consensus 17.8 LEO (4) BOB (15) MWB (41) MIA (48) 17.7 CPS (10) REEF (40) EMM (47) ... 17.6 PM (8) IRA (31) MB (33) MUL (50) 17.5 DRS (25) .. 17.4 SB (16) SF (37) DAN (45) ... 17.3 W-H (34) ... 17.2 OWL (29), MET (53) 16.9 REL (27), 16.7 RAD (2) VIR (44) ... 16.6 ALJ9 (35) ... 16.5 SYED (32) 15.9 KIR (5) 15.5 TJM (1) 14.8 Wx26 (11) 14.4 CHE (46) ------------ --------------- 56 on-time forecasts, consensus (median) 17.9, EWP forecasts 200 LG ... 112 Wx26 ... 90 EDS 85 LIS ... 84 SIN ... 78 TJM ... 76 ROB ... 75 DRS, SYED 74 ALJ9 ... 70 DON ... 67 SF ... 66 REL ... 64.8 CHR ...62 EMM 56 CAP ... 55 NOR ... 52 PM .. 51 MIA consensus 50 LEO, REEF, J10 ... 48 JEF .. 47 W-H ... 46 RJS, STE 45 BFTV ... 43 RAD ... 42 MUL 40 SM ... 38.5 PG .. 37 SEA ... 36.8 KIR 33 BOB ... 30 PIT ... 26 CPS ... 25 PEG ----------------------- 37 on time forecasts, median for consensus is 51 mm.
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