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Roger J Smith

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Roger J Smith last won the day on October 13

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    New Denver BC Canada
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    forecast research on a global scale, thus an interest in UK weather as part of a larger research program that concentrates mainly on severe weather in North America.

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  1. Roger J Smith

    The Seasonal Forecast Thread

    The above summer forecast verified reasonably well in most cases, the prediction implied a top ten outcome and in fact the summer was around 3rd to 5th warmest on record depending on which data you used. The CET predictions of 16, 18 and 17 compare with 16.1, 19.1 and 16.6 for an average error of 0.53 C deg, and it has to be kept in mind that August was running close to 17 until around the 23rd with a very cool finish. The overall prediction was closer, with an average error of only 0.27 C (17.0 vs actual of 17.27). It was a dry summer in many parts of southern Britain and southeast Ireland. The magnitude of this drought was probably underplayed in the forecast. As for North America, it certainly did turn into a scorcher of a summer in the west with widespread fires in western Canada in particular. We were dealing with noxious smoke on an epic scale for much of August (although I was away on holiday in clearer skies down south) and the first week of September before the activity finally subsided. The tropical season has not been keeping pace with the forecast although it could still work out fairly close, and Michael alone is worth several ordinary hurricanes I suppose. ... well, I won't make a big deal about this forecast because basically I think almost everyone expected this sort of summer after the spring blocking, so it is now on to the winter of 2018-19 for the next instalment ... Long-Range Outlook for Winter 2018-19 As always, my forecast is based on a blend of traditional concepts and exclusive research into "index values" on the assumption that at least some variability in the climate can be linked to variations in the solar system magnetic field (a complex response to relatively small changes in solar wind output and effects on the earth's linked atmosphere and magnetosphere). It is looking quite cold compared to normal for Britain and Ireland, in particular later December and parts of January. However, this appears to be dependent on a strong jet stream either shifting far enough south or relaxing for periods of 1-2 weeks, and the intervals between the cold spells could be quite stormy at times when the jet stream is roaring at full capacity. The research index values in particular go far colder than I have seen them for the past several winters, indicating many analogue cases that were very cold winters. Looking through the analogues, I find that periods around late December into early January, and mid to late January, were favoured for the coldest weather. This is also favoured by assumptions made about lunar modulation of the pattern, which is how I have come to see the lunar influence, not as a driver so much as a shaper of larger signals from the other players at work. Another consideration is that we are well into a prolonged solar downturn and so there's nothing in the larger solar-weather paradigm to contradict the notion of this being a colder than average winter. We are in a similar position to the period 1819 to 1823 which had numerous cold winters but it's not a guarantee by itself to be in this sort of regime. I've seen some discussion saying that perhaps this won't be the widely expected "big one" and perhaps we'll need to wait another winter or two, but I have no way of choosing which one is the big one from the coarse assumptions that one is forced to make using only a solar-weather paradigm. The past summer season in the central Canadian arctic was exceptionally cold. Resolute for example had no month warmer than the 1.9 average in July, and that is the lowest such statistic on record in recent times (the record began in 1948). This has been followed up by a large-scale southward movement of a cold anomaly over central Canada that has people commenting that winter already began in the prairies in early September, with snow often on the ground. This anomaly is almost bound to be followed up by a persistent trough around 90 to 100 W longitude. That in turn would favour west Atlantic blocking and a downstream trough between 10 and 30 W. Although that's a little west of the "sweet spot" for a cold winter in Britain and Ireland, I feel that it may be a high amplitude pattern that will induce Scandinavian blocking highs, and cold outflow from those despite fairly high 500-mb heights in western Europe at times. And the pattern could oscillate east-west enough to place the trough over Britain and Ireland at times. So I am predicting a notably cold winter but with high variability possible leading to alternating spells of wintry cold and stormy fast flow situations. Another factor that may prove significant is that energy levels will be highly concentrated near the full and new moons this winter, perhaps more so than has been the case in most recent winters. I expect this to translate into alternating periods of very unsettled, stormy weather around those lunar dates, and relatively long settled intervals between them. The settled intervals are likely to be the times when blocking will deliver the colder air masses from an easterly or northeasterly source. But there may be some tendency for the disturbed intervals to remain cold and turn more northerly. This could add up to considerably more snowfall in the heart of winter than we've seen for quite a few seasons, in contrast to last winter's concentration of snowfall near the very end of the winter season (27 Feb to 2 March was very snowy in some regions). I am aware that this represents a high risk forecast, especially given the tendency of recent winters to resist opportunities to establish potent blocking. So it won't absolutely surprise me if the result is some kind of weaker compromise where some cold and some snowfall develop but longer intervals remain relatively mild. I don't foresee a really mild winter being likely given these background conditions, and I do have concerns that the volatility may produce some exceptionally stormy intervals. This pattern may persist well into late winter and March may not see a lot of change from it, except that by then the energy level considerations will be more evenly distributed into four peaks rather than two per lunation. That separation during February may lead to a peak in snowfall since the peaks will be somewhat less supported and that could be reflected in a more persistent blocking pattern. As to the dates of the stormy episodes, those appear most likely to fall around 19-22 December, 3-6 January, and 16-20 January, and there could be heavy rainfalls in the south during some of those intervals as colder regimes are pushed back to the north at least temporarily, but as time goes on the chances for snowstorms likely increases with each of these windows, then towards the end of January it may be more of a sea-effect snowfall opportunity with the storm track pushed much further south into Iberia and the Mediterranean. During the anticyclonic intervals that are likely to peak between those stormy intervals, we could see some unusually low temperatures especially if snow cover has been established towards the transition from stormy to settled weather. In the run up to the winter, I would expect quite frequent mild and unsettled patterns with the colder synoptics taking their time to appear, possibly in muted form around mid to late November so that perhaps Scotland will get the first round of this predicted wintry regime. In North America, I am expecting a winter dominated by intense cold over central regions, often extending out to both coasts, and a generally depressed jet stream but with weak El Nino tendencies likely to lead to frequent and heavy snowfall inland from the west coast over the Rockies about as far south as northern New Mexico. Parts of eastern Canada may be unusually mild with the storm track tending to run north from near Cape Cod into eastern Quebec province. I feel like this may be a very rough sketch of a winter that may contain some really unusual synoptics and bring conditions that are rarely seen at some times, and those are difficult to anticipate so would just caution that various extremes may be tested at times. I don't think it will be a dull or boring weather pattern for most of the winter, in any case. For verification, I expect the average temperatures to run as much as 1.5 to 2 degrees below recent normals and for this winter to be one of the colder ones in the past thirty or even fifty, and colder even than the longer-term averages which run almost a degree below modern 30-year averages. I somehow doubt that it could be an all-time cold contender to match the summer because that seems to be very difficult to achieve with the ice margins being as far north as they have set up in the North Atlantic in modern times. But as we saw in December 2010, anything is still possible and there could be some intervals of record breaking cold.
  2. Roger J Smith

    Winter 2018/19

    The above looks fairly similar to my research output using entirely different parameters, will be posting a more detailed LRF later today in the LRF thread (which seems to have been dormant since last spring, have to find it back in the menu somewhere). But a tease would be periods of notable cold in Dec and Jan. Stormy at other times.
  3. For the benefit of EWP forecasters who have become regular participants after missing some number of months, this is how your current totals compare with the field (a more accurate portrayal of your relative position during the time you've been participating) ... Only the NCIC version is considered here, it would probably be a similar outcome if I looked at the Hadley scoring instead. FORECASTER ___ Rank ____ Total ____ Started _____ Rank vs field in months entered Let It Snow ! ______ 18 ______ 49.5 _____ Feb _______ 8 Kirkcaldy Weather __ 33 ______ 43.6 _____ Feb _____ T 13 Weather26 _______ T 39 _____ 34.6 ______ Jan _____ 33 CheesePuffScott ___ 45 ______ 29.3 ______ May _____ 24 Some others have missed one or two months during the year and would also be higher ranked if compared against the field for just the months entered. The CET contest is a bit more forgiving for a few missed months as part of its scoring is based on average scores rather than total scores. With that in mind, this is the current (after 10/12 months) comparison of all ranked forecasters in CET with their EWP ranks (NCIC version only). EWP ranks in brackets are for players who entered fewer EWP contests than CET. Those with no EWP forecasts are shown --- in that ranking. This includes a few who entered one or two contests and are ranked lower than 50th. Asterisks (one or two) show missing months in both contests (e.g., Alexis J9 missed one month in each contest). CET rank ___FORECASTER ____ EWP rank ____ avg rank if playing both (rank of that stat) _ 01 _______ Man with Beard ____ --- __________ ---- _ 02 _______ Don ______________ 05 _________ 3.5 (1) _ 03 _______ Norrance __________ T08 ________ 5.5 (3) _ 04 _______ Godber 1 __________ 20 _________12.0 (7) _ 05 _______ metaltron __________ --- _________ ---- _ 06 _______ mulzy _____________ 15 ________ 10.5 (6) _ 07 _______ Singularity __________01 ________ 4.0 (2) _ 08 _______ Radiating Dendrite ___ 10 ________ 9.0 (5) _ 09 _______ DAVID SNOW _______16 ________12.5 (8) _ 10 _______ damianslaw _________ --- ________ ---- _ 11*_______ Alexis J9 ___________ T39* ______ 25.0 (20) _ 12 _______ Polar Gael __________ 03 ________ 7.5 (4) _ 13 _______ The PIT ____________ 34 ________ 23.5 (17) _ 14 _______ Summer Blizzard _____ ---- ________ ---- _ 15**______ stewfox _____________ (24)*** _____ 19.5 (t-14) _ 16**______ Kirkcaldy Weather ____ 33** (13 Feb-Sep) __ 24.5 (t-18) _ 17 _______ Born From The Void ___ 11 _________ 14.0 (9) _ 18 _______ Steve B _____________ T21 ________ 19.5 (t-14) _ 19 _______ Reef ________________ 13 ________ 16.0 (t-11) _ 20 _______ seaside60 ____________ 12 ________16.0 (t-11) _ 21*_______ pegg24 ______________ 30* _______ 25.5 (21) _ 22*_______ doctor32 _____________ 35* _______ 28.5 (25) _ 23 _______ Midlands Ice Age _______ 06 _______ 14.5 (10) _ 24 _______ Duncan McAlister _______ ---- (one entry) _ 25 _______ Dr(S)No ______________ 07 ________ 16.0 (t-11) _ 26 _______ Ed Stone _____________(48)* _______ 37.0 (t-38) _ 27 _______ davehsug _____________ T27 _______ 27.0 (t-22) _ 28*_______ Stargazer _____________ 17* ________ 22.5 (16) _ 29 _______ weather-history _________ 32 _________30.5 (27) _ 30 _______ Mark Bayley ___________ ---- _________ ---- _ 31*_______ Dancerwithwings _______ ---- _________ ---- _ 32 _______ Weather26 ____________ T39 ________ 35.5 (t-33) _ 33**______ Dkeane3 ______________ 31** ________ 32.0 (t-29) _ 34 _______ Optimus Prime _________ ---- _________ ---- _ 35 _______ snowray ______________ ---- _________ ---- _ 36 _______ Daniel* _______________ (35)**________ 35.5 (t-33) _ 37**______ Mapantz ______________ T25 _________ 31.0 (28) _ 38 _______ Summer Sun __________ ---- _________ ---- _ 39 _______ Stationary Front ________ 29 _________ 34.0 (31) _ 40 _______ virtualsphere ___________36 _________ 38.0 (40) _ 41*_______ sundog _______________ ---- _________ ---- _ 42 _______ Roger J Smith _________ T30 _________ 36.0 (37) _ 43 _______ Jeff C ________________ T21 _________ 32.0 (t-29) _ 44 _______ Dami _________________T25 _________ 34.5 (32) _ 45 _______ Bobd29 _______________ 14 __________ 29.5 (26) _ 46**______ Diagonal Red Line _______(T39)**** _____ 42.5 (41) _ 47*_______ J10 ___________________ 02 _________ 24.5 (t-18) _ 48*_______ ChrisBell-notthe-wxman ___T08 ________ 28.0 (24) _ 49*_______ Kentish Man ____________ ---- ________ ---- _ 50 _______ Jonboy _________________ 04 ________ 27.0 (t-22) _ 51 _______ Relativistic ______________ 23 ________ 37.0 (t-38) _ 52 _______ syed2878 _______________ 19 ________ 35.5 (t-33) _ 53**______ Let It Snow ! _____________ 18 (see above, 8th Feb-Sep) __ 35.5 (t-33) _ 54 _______ I Remember Atl 252 _______ ---- (one entry) _ ---- _ 55 _______ Lettucing Gutted __________ T89 ________ 72.0 (42) _____________________________________________________________ Also ranked in top 55 of EWP (too few entries for CET main ranking) Simshady (38), Timmytour (42), vizzy2004 (43), Chris R (44) CheesePuffScott (45), Captain Shortwave (46), Thundery Wintry Showers (47), Prolonged Snow Lover (49), TJM14 (50), Blast from the Past (51), B87 (52), Great Plum (53), Robbie Garrett (54), Leo97t (55). __________________________________________________________
  4. The 12z GFS appears to be heading to record high territory with some hints of a cooler regime at end of the run (which is 22nd) but values as high as 14 could be reached by 17th-20th in the rolling CET with this nearly constant subtropical feed setting up. A number of daily records look to be under threat also, after we set two new ones last year on 14th and 16th, maybe we'll add the 15th this time around. Here's an odd fact also, the warmest October (2001 at 13.3) failed to set any daily records, although 14.0 on 30th would have tied on the 29th.
  5. Hadley checked in at 67.0 mm for EWP, the alternate scoring for that system is here: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=10 Stargazer hit this one on the button with Evening Star second. Most of the scoring is similar to the NCIC scoring, and the annual top five for Hadley are the same in a slightly different order from NCIC scoring, but Singularity has the top spot in both measures and the same total score of 71.9. All details can be seen over at the link.
  6. September 2018 EWP scoring (Hadley version, 67.0 mm) RANK _ FORECASTER ____________ F'cast ____ Error ___ score __ 1 __ STARGAZER ________________67.0 _____ 0.0 ___ 10.0 __ 2 __ EVENING STAR (GBRunner12) _ 66.0 ____ --1.0 ____ 9.8 __ 3 __J10 ________________________ 65.0 ____ --2.0 ____ 9.5 __ 4 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT ________ 64.0 ____ --3.0 ____ 9.3 __ 5 __ RADIATING DENDRITE _______ 71.0 ____ +4.0 ____ 9.0 _ (6) __ average 1981-2010 __________ 71.1 ____ +4.1 ____ 8.9 __ 6 __LET IT SNOW ! ______________ 62.0 ____ --5.0 ____ 8.8 __T7 __JEFF C ____________________ 74.0 ____ +7.0 ____ 8.5 __T7 __ JONBOY ___________________60.0 ____ --7.0____ 8.5 __ 9 __ RELATIVISTIC ______________ 60.0 ____ --7.0____ 8.3 (8.5 - 0.2) (+1d late) _ (10) _ average 1988-2017 __________ 74.7 ____ +7.7 ____ 8.2 _ 10 __ DR(S)NO __________________ 75.5 ____ +8.5 ____ 7.8 _ 11 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE _________ 53.0 ___ --14.0 ____ 7.5 _T12 __CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, _________ VIRTUALSPHERE ________52.0 ___ --15.0 ____ 7.3 each _T14 __DAMI, THE PIT, NORRANCE __50.0 ____--17.0____ 6.8 each _(T14) _consensus ________________50.0 ____--17.0____ 6.8 _ 17 __ ROGER J SMITH ____________49.5 ____--17.5____ 6.0 _ 18 __SINGULARITY ______________ 49.0 ____--18.0____ 5.8 _ 19 __ POLAR GAEL ______________ 85.5 ____+18.5____ 5.5 _ 20 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER ______ 47.6 ____--19.4____ 5.3 _ 21 __BOBD29 ___________________87.0 ____+20.0____ 5.0 _ 22 __ SEASIDE 60 _______________ 47.0 ____--20.0____ 4.8 (5.0 - 0.2) (+1d late) _ 23 __==METEO-MAN== ___________46.2 ____--20.8____ 4.5 _ 24 __ STATIONARY FRONT ________46.0 ____--21.0____ 4.3 _T25 __REEF, DAVEHSUG __________ 45.0 ____--22.0____ 4.0 each _ 27 __ VIZZY2004 _________________44.0 ____--24.0____ 3.5 _T28 __SYED2878, WEATHER-HISTORY __________________ MULZY, DON ___40.0 ____ --27.0____ 3.3 each _ 32 __ ALEXISJ9 __________________95.0 ____+28.0____ 2.3 _ 33 __ BORN FROM THE VOID______ 38.0 ____--29.0____ 2.0 _T34 __ALLWEATHER, DAVID SNOW _ 30.0 ____--37.0____ 1.8 each _ 36 __ GODBER.1 ________________ 22.0 ____ --45.0____ 1.3 _ 37 __ EDSTONE _________________ 17.0 ____--50.0____ 1.0 _ 38 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST _____ 12.0 ____--55.0____ 0.8 _ 39 __ WEATHER 26 ______________128.0 ____ +61.0____ 0.5 _ 40 __ STEVE B __________________156.0 ____ +89.0____ 0.3 _ 41 __ LETTUCING GUTTED _______ 200.0 ___+133.0____ 0.0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 39 on time forecasts, plus 2 marked one day late, 41 in total. = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to Sept 2018) -- Hadley scoring  Rank __ Forecaster ________________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep__TOTALS___NCIC rank  _________________________________________________________________________ Had _ NCIC _01 __ SINGULARITY _____________ 5.2 _7.0 _9.1 _7.7 _5.6 _8.4 _5.7 _9.2 _8.2 _5.8 __ 71.9 _ 71.9 ___ 01 _02 __ JONBOY __________________8.8 _7.4 _6.7_10.0_9.4 _3.9 _0.6 _6.5 _6.4 _8.5 __ 68.2 _ 63.3 ___ 04 _03 __ J10 ______________________4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _7.7 _9.6 _4.3 _8.6 _5.2 _9.5 __ 65.9 _ 67.1 ___ 02 _04 __ DON _____________________ 1.8 _5.7 _8.4 _8.3 _9.8 _4.7 _6.8 _6.5 _8.9 _3.3 __ 64.2 _ 62.8 ___ 05 _05 __ POLAR GAEL ______________4.6 _9.0 _9.5 _2.6 _6.9 _9.8 _8.4 _5.5 _1.8 _5.5 __ 63.6 _ 67.0 ___ 03 _(06) _ consensus ________________ 5.2 _5.9 _5.4 _5.7_6.5 _5.9 _5.3 _8.8 _5.3 _6.8 __ 60.8 _ 60.8 ___ (06) _06 __ NORRANCE _______________ 7.0 _2.2 _9.6 _9.3 _4.7_10.0_1.2 _3.4 _6.2 _6.8 __ 60.4 _ 58.9 ___ 08t _07 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE _________3.4 _3.3 _9.1 _9.6 _3.2 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 _5.4 _7.5 __ 58.4 _ 59.7 ___ 06 (08) __ average 1981-2010 __________7.6 _6.6 _5.5 _5.1 _2.7 _6.4 _3.2 _1.3 _9.9 _8.9 __ 57.2 _ 57.7 ___(11) _08 __ DR (S) NO _________________ 9.6 _8.4 _1.2 _6.2 _5.6 _2.4 _2.4 _3.7 _9.8 _7.8 __ 57.1 _ 59.5 ___ 07 _09 __ RADIATING DENDRITE ______ 2.0 _2.4 _8.9 _4.5 _1.8 _7.0 _9.4 _9.2 _2.8 _9.0 __ 57.0 _ 58.6 ___ 10 _10 __CHRIS BELL NOT THE WxMAN_9.4 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _3.7_4.1 _9.2 _7.8 _7.3 _---- __ 57.3 _ 58.9 ___ 08t _11 __ SEASIDE 60 _______________ 5.8 _4.3 _5.2 _8.8_10.0_5.7 _5.9 _4.3 _1.6 _4.8 __ 56.4 _ 53.9 ___ 12 _12 __ BORN FROM THE VOID _____ 6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _6.3 _9.6 _1.8 _7.4 _3.3 _2.0 __ 55.8 _ 56.4 ___ 11 (13) _ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)_7.7 _8.3 _3.9 _3.7 _2.7 _7.1 _2.4 _0.9_ 9.0 _8.2 __ 53.9 _ 53.7 ___ 13 T13 __ REEF _____________________ 8.6 _5.5 _2.8 _3.8 _1.6 _8.2 _3.0 _9.8 _5.2 _4.0 __ 52.5 _ 52.3 ___ 13 T13 __ LET IT SNOW ! ______________---- _---- _7.9 _6.5 _7.5 _3.7 _9.6 _0.8 _7.7 _8.8 __ 52.5 _ 49.5 ___ 18 _15 __ SYED2878 _________________ 4.8_10.0_3.8_5.0 _3.2 _7.0 _3.2 _1.8 _9.8 _3.3 __ 51.9 _ 49.0 ___ 19 _16 __ MULZY ____________________7.0 _8.8 _7.1 _0.9 _1.6 _7.2 _4.3 _8.0 _2.5 _3.3 __ 50.7 _ 51.0 ___ 15 _17 __ RELATIVISTIC ______________8.0 _2.2 _8.4 _1.2 _7.5 _0.4 _0.6 _6.5 _7.5 _8.3 __ 50.6 _ 47.5 ___ 23 _18 __ STARGAZER _______________ 1.4 _9.6 _2.4 _7.1 _2.3 _5.1 _6.5 _5.9 _----_10.0__ 50.3 _ 50.0 ___ 17 _19 __ STEVE B __________________ 7.4 _8.2 _3.5 _8.8 _9.4 _0.2 _5.3 _ 2.8 _3.8 _0.3 __ 49.7 _ 47.8 ___ 21t _20 __ BOBD29___________________ 3.2 _6.6 _5.0 _5.9 _8.4 _2.0 _8.8 _3.7 _0.9 _5.0 __ 49.5 _ 51.1 ___ 14 _21 __ DAVID SNOW_______________ 2.2 _3.3 _9.5 _5.7 _4.7 _2.2 _7.0 _4.3 _8.7 _1.8 __ 49.4 _ 50.5 ___ 16 _22 __ DAVEHSUG ________________ 1.0 _1.2_10.0_4.8 _9.4 _7.0 _1.0 _2.0 _8.0 _4.0 __ 48.4 _ 45.7 ___ 27t _23 __ JEFF C ____________________ 7.6 _4.9 _1.1 _3.3 _2.7 _4.7 _5.3 _4.7_4.3 _8.5 __ 47.1 _ 47.8 ___ 21t _24 __ DAMI ______________________5.4 _3.9 _0.9 _5.7 _1.6 _8.2 _3.0 _6.8 _5.0 _6.8 __ 47.3 _ 46.1 ___ 25t _25 __GODBER.1 _________________ 2.4 _7.2 _5.9 _3.5 _6.3 _8.6 _0.6 _7.4 _2.8 _1.3 __ 46.0 _ 48.4 ___ 20 _26 __ WEATHER-HISTORY _________0.6 _3.3 _6.1 _2.6 _9.6 _7.6 _0.8 _7.6 _4.1 _3.3 __ 45.6 _ 43.9___ 32 _27 __ MAPANTZ __________________5.2 _6.3 _1.9 _4.3 _5.6 _9.2 _4.3 _8.6 _---- _---- __ 45.4 _ 46.1 ___ 25t _28 __ STEWFOX _________________ 7.0 _9.6 _4.0 _8.9 _6.9 _0.6 _8.2 _ ---- _---- _---- __ 45.2 _ 46.3 ___ 24 _29 __ STATIONARY FRONT ________ 1.2 _4.7 _6.5 _2.6 _0.7 _5.9 _7.4 _3.4 _8.4 _4.3 __ 45.1 _ 45.5 ___ 29 T30 __ DKEANE3 __________________7.2 _7.8 _5.6 _9.1 _3.5 _2.8 _2.0 _6.7 _ ---- _---- __ 44.7 _ 44.0 ___ 31 T30 __ ROGER J SMITH ____________ 0.2 _1.8 _6.7 _9.8 _3.9 _3.5 _5.5 _3.5 _3.8 _6.0 __ 44.7 _ 45.7 ___ 27t _32 __ PEGG24 ___________________ 9.2 _5.1 _0.7 _6.2 _6.3 _1.2 _5.3 _9.8 _0.2 _---- __ 44.0 _ 45.0 ___ 30 _33 __ THE_PIT ___________________6.0 _1.0 _8.4 _1.4 _3.4 _9.2 _4.3 _2.6 _0.7 _6.8 __ 43.8 _ 42.2 ___ 34 _34 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER_______ ---- _---- _3.5 _8.8 _8.4 _2.6 _7.6 _4.5 _1.4 _5.3 __ 42.1 _ 43.6 ___ 33 _35 __ DANIEL* ___________________3.8 _5.1 _4.9 _4.3 _5.8 _5.1 _ ---- _4.9 _3.1 _---- __ 37.0 _ 36.4 ___ 37 _36 __ DOCTOR32 _________________1.6 _3.9 _6.7 _5.0 _2.7 _1.4 _5.3 _9.4 _0.9 _---- __ 36.9 _ 37.3 ___ 35 _37 __ VIRTUALSPHERE ___________ 4.4 _1.2 _6.7 _1.6 _9.4 _3.3 _1.8 _0.6 _---- _7.3 __ 36.3 _ 37.1 ___ 36 _38 __ SIMSHADY _________________ 7.8 _7.6 _0.4 _7.2 _9.4 _1.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 36.2 _ 35.8 ___ 38 _39 __ WEATHER 26 _______________---- _4.5 _4.5 _9.5 _0.9 _5.3 _8.2 _0.4 _2.1 _0.5 __ 35.9 _ 34.6 ___ 39t _40 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE ________ ---- _---- _2.1 _6.9 _5.6 _7.6 _9.8 _2.6 _---- _---- __ 34.6 _ 34.6 ___ 39t _41 __ TIMMYTOUR ______________ 10.0 _0.2 _6.5 _1.7 _---- _9.2 _6.3 _---- _---- _---- __ 33.9 _ 33.8 ___ 42 _42 __ VIZZY2004 _________________ 8.6 _8.6 _8.8 _2.6 _0.5 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _3.5 __ 32.6 _ 33.5 ___ 43 _43 __ CHRIS. R __________________ 6.2 _0.6 _9.6 _7.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _7.0 _---- _---- __ 31.3 _ 31.0 ___ 44 _44 __ ALEXISJ9 __________________ 2.8 _6.1 _1.9 _---- _0.2 _1.0 _3.0 _4.1 _9.4 _2.3 __ 30.8 _ 34.6 ___ 39t _45 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT _________----_---- _---- _---- _ ----_ 6.3 _9.0 _5.7 _0.4 _9.3 __ 30.7 _ 29.3 ___ 45 _46 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ________---- _---- _---- _0.5 _7.1 _---- _----_5.3 _6.4 _7.3 __ 26.6 _ 28.0 ___ 46 _47 _ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS 8.2 _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _7.2 _8.8 _---- _---- __ 24.2 _ 24.6 ___ 47 _48 __ ED STONE __________________4.4 _1.6 _4.2 _1.2 _2.1 _---- _1.2 _1.0 _5.9 _1.0 __ 22.6 _ 22.0 ___ 48 _49 __ TJM14 _____________________ ----_---- _---- _---- _ ----_ 5.9 _5.9 _1.6 _ 9.1 _---- __ 22.5 _ 21.4 ___ 50 _50 __ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER___ 3.6 _0.8 _1.6 _3.3 _8.0 _---- _3.3 _---- _---- _ ---- __ 20.6 _ 22.4 ___ 49 _51 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST ______ 0.8 _0.0 _3.5 _2.6 _---- _4.7 _---- _---- _6.8 _0.8 __ 19.2 _ 20.2 ___ 51 _52 __ B87 _______________________ ----_---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ 7.8_10.0_---- _---- _---- __ 17.8 _ 19.2 ___ 52 _53 __ GREAT PLUM _______________ ---- _---- _8.4 _7.4 _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- __ 15.8 _ 14.8 ___ 53 _54 __ ROBBIE GARRETT ___________---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ 0.8 _4.3 _----_10.0 _---- __15.1 __14.0 ___ 54 _55 __ FOZFOSTER ________________ ---- _5.5 _4.5 _3.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 13.8 _ 13.4 ___ 56 _56 __ LEO97T_____________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ 8.2 _5.2 _---- __13.4 _ 13.6 ___ 55 _57 __ RAIN RAIN RAIN _____________ ---- _2.4_10.0_---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 12.4 _ 12.4 ___ 57 _58 __ TERMINAL MORAINE _________ 9.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _1.4 _---- _---- __ 11.2 _ 11.0 ___ 59 _59 __ EMMETT GARLAND___________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _3.4 _ 6.8 _----__ 10.2 _11.6 ___ 58 _60 __ SEASONALITY _______________ --- _--- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _10.0 _---- _---- __ 10.0 _ 10.0 ___ 60 _61 __ EVENING STAR (GBrunner12) ___ --- _--- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _---- _---- _9.8 ___ 9.8 __ 9.0 ___ 62 _62 __ V FOR VERY COLD ___________ 9.0 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- ___ 9.0 __ 7.6 ___ 68 _63 __ NORTHWEST SNOW __________---- _---- _8.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 8.9 __ 9.5 ___ 61 _64 __ LETTERBOXER ______________ ---- _---- _3.6 _---- _ 4.3 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.9 __ 8.5 ___ 63 _65 __ MP-R ______________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ 7.8 _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.8 __ 7.8 ___ 65 T66 __ CORAM _____________________---- _---- _---- _7.7 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.7 __ 7.7 __T-66 T66 __ IAPENNELL __________________---- _5.9 _---- _---- _---- _1.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.7 __ 8.1 ___ 64 _68 __ BOOFERKING _______________ 3.0 _4.5 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 7.5 __ 7.7 __T-66 _69 __ RICEY076 ___________________ ---- _---- _---- _6.9 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 6.9 __ 6.9 ___ 70 _70__ MOORLANDER _______________ 5.8 _---- _---- _0.4 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 6.2 __ 6.3 ___ 71 _71 __ LF1002 ______________________----_---- _---- _---- _ ----_ 6.1 _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 6.1 __ 7.0 ___ 69 _72 __ JAMES M ____________________---- _---- _5.9 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 5.9 __ 5.9 __T-72 _73 __ POLAR MARITIME ____________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _5.7 _---- ___ 5.7 __ 5.9 __T-72 _74 __ ROSS90 ____________________ ---- _---- _5.4 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 5.4 __ 5.0 __T-75 _75 __ CASTELLANUS80 ____________ ---- _2.8 _2.3 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 5.1 __ 5.1 ___ 74 _76 __ BACKTRACK_________________---- _---- _---- _5.0 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 5.0 __ 5.0 __T-75 _77 __ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ________---- _---- _4.7 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 4.7 __ 4.5 ___77 _78 __ ==METEO-MAN== ____________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _4.5 ___ 4.5 __ 4.3 ___T-78 _79 __ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM __ ---- _---- _---- _4.3 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 4.3 __ 4.3 ___T-78 _80 __ MARK NEAL _________________---- _---- _---- _ 2.9 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 2.9 __ 2.9 ___80 _81 __ MATT TARRANT ______________---- _---- _---- _ 2.8 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 2.8 __ 2.8 ___81 T82 __ MORE SNOW ________________2.6 _ --- _---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- ___ 2.6 __ 2.6 __T-82 T82 __ DUNCAN McALISTER___________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _2.6 _---- _---- ___ 2.6 __ 2.6 __T-82 _84 __ COLDEST WINTER ___________ ---- _---- _---- _ 0.2 _---- _---- _ 2.2 _---- _ ---- _---- ___ 2.4 __ 2.6 __T-82 _85 __ STEVE MURR _______________ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ 2.3 _---- ___ 2.3 __ 2.3 ___ 85 _86 __ ALLWEATHER _______________ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _1.8 ___ 1.8 __ 1.8 ___ 86 T87 __ SKY FULL ___________________---- _---- _1.2 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- ___ 1.2 __ 1.2 __T-87 T87 __ 38*5 C _______________________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _1.2 _---- _---- ___ 1.2 __ 1.2 __T-87 _89 __ LETTUCING GUTTED _________ 0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.7 _0.0 _0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.2 _0.0 _0.0 ___ 0.9 __ 0.4 __T-89 _90 __ WEIRPIG ___________________ 0.4 _---- _----- _----_---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- ___ 0.4 __ 0.4 __T-89 _91 __ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 ____---- _---- _0.2 _----_ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- ___ 0.2 __ 0.2 ___ 91 _92 __ DEEP SNOW PLEASE _________ ---- _---- _---- _0.0 _---- _ ---- _----_ 0.0 _ ---- _---- ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 92 ______________________________________________________________________________________ (notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)
  7. I think the confusion is that a pair of rather strong lows are expected to form in the main westerlies to the north of where Leslie will be ambling along eastward, and at the moment Leslie is not supposed to join up with them but in any case they get to be quite strong late next week and could produce some strong wind gusts in Ireland and Scotland at least. If Leslie were later modelled to join up with these in some way, then look out, but it appears to be an active pattern with or without Leslie's involvement.
  8. Here's the full list of entries in the CET and EWP contests, the consensus forecasts are 10.5 C and 84 mm (a little below recent October averages in both cases, we'll see how that pans out soon enough.) https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=10 Posting this a few hours before the absolute deadline, anyone who happens to enter after this will get a footnote if I can't edit the tables.
  9. Table of entries for CET and EWP contests, October 2018 CET forecasts .. number in brackets shows the order of entry (only the last one counts in that regard) ... late entries are shown (L1d-nn) for one day late, order of entry, then L2d and L3d for one each two and three days late. 15.5 __ Lettucing Gutted (10) 13.3 __ __ __ warmest 2001 13.0 __ Blue_Skies_do_I_see (37), Daniel* (L2d) 12.5 __ syed2878 (40) 12.4 __ TJM14 (13) 12.1 __ Roger J Smith (31), Kentish Man (43) 11.8 __ Froze were the days (L1d-3), coldest winter (L3d) 11.6 __ davehsug (55) 11.5 __ Polar Gael (7), vizzy2004 (46), Man With Beard (56) 11.3 __ virtualsphere (21), Stationary Front (42) 11.2 __ snowray (41), Mulzy (53) 11.1 __ Reef (52), seaside60 (L1d-2) 11.0 __ J10 (57) __ average 1988-2017 10.9 __ Blast From The Past (26) 10.8 __ EdStone (11), Mark Bayley (30), Dkeane3 (54), DAVID SNOW (L1d-5) 10.7 __ Summer Blizzard (1), Summer Sun (34), metaltron (50) __ average 1981-2010 10.6 __ Midlands Ice Age (17), Relativistic (22) 10.5 __ Dr(S)No (25), Dancerwithwings (29), The Pit (36) and consensus 10.4 __ weather26 (4), Doctor32 (49), CheesePuffScott (58) 10.3 __ BornFromTheVoid (45) 10.2 __ Radiating Dendrite (8), JeffC (27), damianslaw (39), weather-history (44) 10.1 __ IRememberAtlantic252 (2), ProlongedSnowLover (24), Don (48), Singularity (51) 10.0 __ Bobd29 (9), Leo97t (5), snowyowl9 (20), Feb1991blizzard (32), stewfox (L1d-1) 9.9 __ nn2013 (14), stargazer (33), Norrance (35), jonboy (L1d-4) 9.8 __ Kirkcaldy Weather (15), SteveB (6), Badgers01 (L1d-6) 9.7 __ Pegg24 (16) 9.6 __ Godber.1 (18) 9.5 __ sundog (23), Duncan McAlister (47) 9.4 __ Let It Snow! (28) 9.3 __ SnowDragon (38) 9.1 __ Summer of 95 (19) 8.9 __ Dami (12) 7.7 __ Diagonal Red Line (3) 5.3 __ __ __ coldest 1740 _____________________________ 58 forecasts (on time), six were one day late, and one each were two and three days late, total 66 forecasts consensus (median) is 10.45 C rounded to 10.5. =================================================================== EWP forecasts (mm) ... see table on page one of October thread for NCIC extremes ... Hadley extremes listed here 218.1 __ __ __ wettest 1903 200.0 __ Lettucing Gutted 121.3 __ Polar Gael 117.0 __ CheesePuffScott 115.0 __ BornFromTheVoid 111.0 __ SnowDragon 110.0 __ Bobd29 105.0 __ JeffC 100.8 __ average for 1981-2010 100.0 __ stewfox (+1d late) 99.0 __ EdStone, Relativistic, Norrance, J10 96.6 __ average for 1988-2017 95.0 __ davehsug 92.0 __ Dkeane3 90.0 __ nn2013 89.0 __ seaside60 (+1d late) 88.0 __ weather26 87.0 __ Stationary Front 86.0 __ virtualsphere 85.0 __ Dr(S)No, syed2878, Reef 84.0 __ Singularity __ __ consensus 80.0 __ Leo97t, Blast From The Past 78.0 __ Summer of 95 76.0 __ vizzy2004 75.0 __ Midlands Ice Age, DAVID SNOW (+1d late) 70.0 __ Pegg24, Feb1991blizzard, The Pit, Mulzy 69.6 __ Kirkcaldy Weather 68.0 __ TJM14, Don 65.0 __ weather-history, jonboy (+1d late) 64.0 __ SteveB 63.0 __ Radiating Dendrite 55.0 __ Dami, Godber.1, Roger J Smith, Doctor32 53.0 __ Stargazer _8.8 __ __ __ driest 1781 ____________________________ 41 on time entries, 4 more were one day late, 45 in total. consensus (median, 23rd ranked) 84 mm.
  10. EWP (NCIC version) in at 72.8 mm, a bit higher than the current Hadley estimate of 68 mm (we'll see where that one finalizes in a few days). Scoring is now posted over in competition scoring thread. Top scores are: RANK _ FORECASTER ____________ F'cast ____ Error ___ score __ 01 __ JeffC ____________________ 74.0 ______ +1.2 ____ 10.0 __(02) _ average 1981-2010 ________ 71.1 ______--1.7 _____ 9.9 __ 02 __ Radiating Dendrite _________ 71.0 ______--1.8 _____ 9.8 __(03) _ average 1988-2017 ________ 74.7 ______ +1.9 _____ 9.7 __ 03 __ Dr(S)No _________________ 75.5 ______+2.7 _____ 9.5 __ 04 __ Stargazer ________________ 67.0 ______--5.8 _____ 9.3 __ 05 __ Evening Star (GBRunner12) _ 66.0 ______--6.8 _____ 9.0 __ 06 __ J10 _____________________65.0 ______--7.8 _____ 8.8 __ 07 __ CheesePuffScott __________ 64.0 ______--8.8 _____ 8.5 __ 08 __ LetItSnow! _______________ 62.0 _____--10.8 _____ 8.3 __ 09 __ PolarGael ________________85.5 _____ +12.7 _____ 8.0 __ 10 __ jonboy __________________ 60.0 _____--12.8 _____ 7.8 __ 11 __ Relativistic _______________ 60.0 _____--12.8 _____ 7.6 (+1d late .. 7.8 -- 0.2) __ 12 __ Bobd29 __________________87.0 _____ +14.2 _____ 7.3 ======================================= and the annual contest now looks like this: EWP scoring Dec 2017 to Sept 2018 Rank _ Forecaster _____________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep __TOTAL_ previous rank _01 __ SINGULARITY ___________5.2 _7.2 _9.8 _7.7 _6.4 _8.0 _5.7 _9.2 _7.7 _5.0 __ 71.9 ____ 01 _02 __ J10 ___________________ 4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _9.2 _9.8 _4.3 _8.6 _5.4 _8.8 __ 67.1 ____ 05 _03 __ POLAR GAEL ___________ 4.6 _9.4 _8.6 _2.6 _8.2 _9.6 _8.4 _5.5 _2.1 _8.0 __ 67.0 ____ 03 _04 __ JONBOY _______________ 9.2 _7.8 _6.4 _9.6 _7.5 _3.7 _0.6 _6.3 _4.4 _7.8 __ 63.3 ____ 06 _05 __ DON __________________ 1.8 _6.1 _7.4 _8.3 _8.8 _4.3 _6.8 _6.3_10.0 _3.0 __ 62.8 ____ 02 (06) __ consensus _____________5.2 _6.3 _5.0 _5.7_7.7 _5.3 _5.3 _8.8 _5.5 _6.0 __ 60.8 ____ (08) _06 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ______3.4 _3.3 _9.8_10.0_3.6 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 _5.7 _7.0 __ 59.7 ____ 09 _07 __ DR (S) NO ______________ 9.8 _8.8 _1.2 _6.2 _6.4 _2.4 _2.4 _3.7 _9.1 _9.5 __ 59.5 ____ 10 _T08__NORRANCE ____________ 7.0 _2.2 _8.4 _9.3 _5.4 _9.4 _1.2 _3.6 _6.4 _6.0 __ 58.9 ____ 08 _T08_CHRISBELL-nottheWxMAN _10.0 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _4.0 _3.9 _9.2 _7.8 _8.2 _---- __ 58.9 ____ 04 _10 __ RADIATING DENDRITE ___ 2.0 _2.4 _8.7 _4.5 _2.0 _7.8 _9.4 _9.2 _2.8 _9.8 __ 58.6 ____ 12 _(11) _ average 1981-2010 _______7.5 _6.4 _5.3 _5.0 _2.6 _6.4 _3.2 _1.4_10.0_9.9 __ 57.7 ____ (16) _11 __ BORN FROM THE VOID___6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _7.5 _9.0 _1.8 _7.4 _3.3 _2.0 __ 56.4 ____ 07 _12 __ SEASIDE 60 ____________ 5.8 _4.5 _4.8 _8.8 _8.4 _5.1 _5.9 _4.5 _1.8 _4.3 __ 53.9 ____ 11 _(13)_average 1988-2017 (D 87-16) 7.9_7.5 _3.9 _3.4 _2.4 _6.4 _2.4 _1.1 _9.0 _9.7 __ 53.7 ____ (T22) _13 __ REEF __________________ 9.0 _5.3 _2.8 _3.8 _1.8 _7.4 _3.0_10.0_5.4 _3.8 __ 52.3 ____ 14 _14 __ BOBD29 ________________3.2 _7.0 _6.5 _5.9 _5.6 _2.0 _8.8 _3.7 _1.1 _7.3 __ 51.1 ____ 23 _15 __ MULZY _________________7.0 _8.6 _6.7 _0.9 _1.8 _8.2 _4.3 _8.0 _2.5 _3.0 __ 51.0 ____ 15 _16 __ DAVID SNOW____________ 2.2 _3.3 _8.6 _5.7 _5.4 _2.2 _7.0 _4.5 _9.8 _1.8 __ 50.5 ____ 13 _17 __ STARGAZER ____________ 1.4 _9.4 _2.4 _7.1 _2.7 _4.5 _6.5 _6.7 _----_9.3 __ 50.0 ____ 28 _18 __ LET IT SNOW ! __________ ---- _----_ 8.8 _6.5 _4.7 _3.5 _9.6 _0.8 _7.3 _8.3 __ 49.5 ____ 26 _19 __ SYED2878 ______________ 4.8_10.0_3.8 _5.0 _2.2 _6.1 _3.2 _1.8 _9.1 _3.0 __ 49.0 ____ 20 _20 __ GODBER.1 _____________ 2.4 _7.4 _5.5 _3.5 _7.5_10.0 _0.6 _7.4 _2.8 _1.3 __ 48.4 ____ 17 ____ (this month's winner is tied 21 with SteveB at 47.8 points) ____ All the rest of the scoring can be reviewed over at the competition and scoring thread. Link: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=10
  11. EWP scoring for September 2018 (NCIC version) based on 72.8 mm -- despite Hadley provisional being 68 mm, NCIC is higher this month (unusual). -- (Hadley version will follow when they confirm an amount, perhaps their provisional will be adjusted upwards). -- provisional scoring table in previous post can now be ignored and deleted by a moderator reading this (posted Friday 28th Sept). RANK _ FORECASTER ____________ F'cast ____ Error ___ score __ 01 __ JeffC ____________________ 74.0 ______ +1.2 ____ 10.0 __(02) _ average 1981-2010 ________ 71.1 ______--1.7 _____ 9.9 __ 02 __ Radiating Dendrite _________ 71.0 ______--1.8 _____ 9.8 __(03) _ average 1988-2017 ________ 74.7 ______ +1.9 _____ 9.7 __ 03 __ Dr(S)No _________________ 75.5 ______+2.7 _____ 9.5 __ 04 __ Stargazer ________________ 67.0 ______--5.8 _____ 9.3 __ 05 __ Evening Star (GBRunner12) _ 66.0 ______--6.8 _____ 9.0 __ 06 __ J10 _____________________65.0 ______--7.8 _____ 8.8 __ 07 __ CheesePuffScott __________ 64.0 ______--8.8 _____ 8.5 __ 08 __ LetItSnow! _______________ 62.0 _____--10.8 _____ 8.3 __ 09 __ PolarGael ________________85.5 _____ +12.7 _____ 8.0 __ 10 __ jonboy __________________ 60.0 _____--12.8 _____ 7.8 __ 11 __ Relativistic _______________ 60.0 _____--12.8 _____ 7.6 (+1d late .. 7.8 -- 0.2) __ 12 __ Bobd29 __________________87.0 _____ +14.2 _____ 7.3 __ 13 __ Midlands Ice Age __________ 53.0 _____ --19.8 _____ 7.0 _ T14 __ Captain Shortwave ______________ virtualsphere _______52.0 _____ --20.8 _____ 6.8 _ 16 __ AlexisJ9 __________________ 95.0 _____ +22.2 _____ 6.3 _ T17 __ Dami, The Pit, Norrance ____ 50.0 _____ --22.8 _____ 6.0 _(T17) __ consensus ______________50.0 _____ --22.8 _____ 6.0 _ 20 __ Roger J Smith ______________49.5 _____ --23.3 _____ 5.3 _ 21 __ Singularity _________________49.0 _____ --23.8 _____ 5.0 _ 22 __ Kirkcaldy Weather ___________47.6 _____ --25.2 _____ 4.8 _T23__seaside60 __________________47.0 _____ --25.8 _____ 4.3 (+1d late, 4.5 -- 0.2) _T23__ ==MeteoMan== _____________46.2 _____ --26.6 _____ 4.3 _ 25 __ Stationary Front _____________46.0 _____ --26.8 _____ 4.0 _T26 __Reef, davehsug _____________ 45.0 _____ --27.8 _____ 3.8 _ 28 __ vizzy2004 __________________44.0 _____ --28.8 _____ 3.5 _T29 __ syed2878, weather-history, _________________ Mulzy, Don ______ 40.0 _____ --32.8 _____ 3.0 _ 33 __BornFromTheVoid ____________ 38.0 _____ --34.8 _____ 2.0 _T34 __AllWeather, David Snow ______ 30.0 _____ --42.8 _____ 1.8 _ 36 __ Godber.1 __________________ 22.0 _____ --50.8 _____ 1.3 _ 37 __ weather26 ________________ 128.0 _____ +55.2 _____ 1.0 _ 38 __ EdStone ___________________ 17.0 _____ --55.8 _____ 0.8 _ 39 __ Blast From The Past __________12.0 _____ --60.8 _____ 0.5 _ 40 __ Steve B ____________________156.0 _____ +83.2 _____ 0.3 _ 41 __ Lettucing Gutted _____________200.0 _____+127.2_____ 0.0 ============================================================== Updated EWP annual scoring (NCIC version) for Dec 2017 to Sept 2018 Rank _ Forecaster _____________Dec_Jan_Feb_Mar_Apr_May_Jun_Jul_Aug_Sep __TOTAL_ previous rank _01 __ SINGULARITY ___________5.2 _7.2 _9.8 _7.7 _6.4 _8.0 _5.7 _9.2 _7.7 _5.0 __ 71.9 ____ 01 _02 __ J10 ___________________ 4.4 _7.6 _0.7 _8.3 _9.2 _9.8 _4.3 _8.6 _5.4 _8.8 __ 67.1 ____ 05 _03 __ POLAR GAEL ___________ 4.6 _9.4 _8.6 _2.6 _8.2 _9.6 _8.4 _5.5 _2.1 _8.0 __ 67.0 ____ 03 _04 __ JONBOY _______________ 9.2 _7.8 _6.4 _9.6 _7.5 _3.7 _0.6 _6.3 _4.4 _7.8 __ 63.3 ____ 06 _05 __ DON __________________ 1.8 _6.1 _7.4 _8.3 _8.8 _4.3 _6.8 _6.3_10.0 _3.0 __ 62.8 ____ 02 (06) __ consensus _____________5.2 _6.3 _5.0 _5.7_7.7 _5.3 _5.3 _8.8 _5.5 _6.0 __ 60.8 ____ (08) _06 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE ______3.4 _3.3 _9.8_10.0_3.6 _3.0 _8.6 _5.3 _5.7 _7.0 __ 59.7 ____ 09 _07 __ DR (S) NO ______________ 9.8 _8.8 _1.2 _6.2 _6.4 _2.4 _2.4 _3.7 _9.1 _9.5 __ 59.5 ____ 10 _T08__NORRANCE ____________ 7.0 _2.2 _8.4 _9.3 _5.4 _9.4 _1.2 _3.6 _6.4 _6.0 __ 58.9 ____ 08 _T08_CHRISBELL-nottheWxMAN _10.0 _6.8 _2.6 _6.4 _4.0 _3.9 _9.2 _7.8 _8.2 _---- __ 58.9 ____ 04 _10 __ RADIATING DENDRITE ___ 2.0 _2.4 _8.7 _4.5 _2.0 _7.8 _9.4 _9.2 _2.8 _9.8 __ 58.6 ____ 12 _(11) _ average 1981-2010 _______7.5 _6.4 _5.3 _5.0 _2.6 _6.4 _3.2 _1.4_10.0_9.9 __ 57.7 ____ (16) _11 __ BORN FROM THE VOID___6.4 _9.8 _3.5 _5.7 _7.5 _9.0 _1.8 _7.4 _3.3 _2.0 __ 56.4 ____ 07 _12 __ SEASIDE 60 ____________ 5.8 _4.5 _4.8 _8.8 _8.4 _5.1 _5.9 _4.5 _1.8 _4.3 __ 53.9 ____ 11 _(13)_average 1988-2017 (D 87-16) 7.9_7.5 _3.9 _3.4 _2.4 _6.4 _2.4 _1.1 _9.0 _9.7 __ 53.7 ____ (T22) _13 __ REEF __________________ 9.0 _5.3 _2.8 _3.8 _1.8 _7.4 _3.0_10.0_5.4 _3.8 __ 52.3 ____ 14 _14 __ BOBD29 ________________3.2 _7.0 _6.5 _5.9 _5.6 _2.0 _8.8 _3.7 _1.1 _7.3 __ 51.1 ____ 23 _15 __ MULZY _________________7.0 _8.6 _6.7 _0.9 _1.8 _8.2 _4.3 _8.0 _2.5 _3.0 __ 51.0 ____ 15 _16 __ DAVID SNOW____________ 2.2 _3.3 _8.6 _5.7 _5.4 _2.2 _7.0 _4.5 _9.8 _1.8 __ 50.5 ____ 13 _17 __ STARGAZER ____________ 1.4 _9.4 _2.4 _7.1 _2.7 _4.5 _6.5 _6.7 _----_9.3 __ 50.0 ____ 28 _18 __ LET IT SNOW ! __________ ---- _----_ 8.8 _6.5 _4.7 _3.5 _9.6 _0.8 _7.3 _8.3 __ 49.5 ____ 26 _19 __ SYED2878 ______________ 4.8_10.0_3.8 _5.0 _2.2 _6.1 _3.2 _1.8 _9.1 _3.0 __ 49.0 ____ 20 _20 __ GODBER.1 _____________ 2.4 _7.4 _5.5 _3.5 _7.5_10.0 _0.6 _7.4 _2.8 _1.3 __ 48.4 ____ 17 T21 __ STEVE B _______________ 7.4 _8.2 _3.5 _8.8 _7.5 _0.2 _5.3 _2.8 _3.8 _0.3 __ 47.8 ____ 16 T21 __ JEFF C _________________7.8 _4.1 _1.1 _3.3 _3.1 _4.3 _5.3 _4.5 _4.3 _10.0__ 47.8 ____ 33 _23 __ RELATIVISTIC ___________ 8.4 _2.2 _7.4 _1.2 _4.7 _0.4 _0.6 _6.3 _8.7 _7.6 __ 47.5 ____ 31 _24 __ STEWFOX ______________7.0 _9.4 _4.0 _8.9 _8.2 _0.6 _8.2 _ ---- _ ---- _---- __ 46.3 ____ 18 T25 __ MAPANTZ ______________ 5.2 _6.8 _1.9 _4.3 _6.4 _8.8 _4.1 _8.6 _ ---- _ ---- __ 46.1 ____ 19 T25 __ DAMI ___________________5.4 _3.9 _0.9 _5.7 _1.8 _7.4 _3.0 _6.8 _5.2 _6.0 __ 46.1 ____ 30 _T27__DAVEHSUG _____________ 1.0 _1.2 _9.1 _4.8 _7.5 _7.8 _1.0 _2.0 _7.5 _3.8 __ 45.7 ____ 24 _T27__ROGER J SMITH _________ 0.2 _1.8 _8.1 _9.8 _2.7 _5.5 _5.5 _3.0 _3.8 _5.3 __ 45.7 ____ 29 _29 __ STATIONARY FRONT _____ 1.2 _4.9 _6.4 _2.6 _0.7 _5.3 _7.4 _3.6 _9.4 _4.0 __ 45.5 ____ 25 _30 __ PEGG24 _______________ 8.0 _5.9 _0.7 _6.2 _7.5 _1.2 _5.3 _10.0 _0.2 _---- __ 45.0 ____ 21 _31 __ DKEANE3 ______________ 7.2 _7.6 _5.2 _9.1 _3.6 _2.8 _2.0 _6.5 _ ---- _---- __ 44.0 ____ 22 _32 __ WEATHER-HISTORY ______0.6 _3.3 _5.9 _2.6 _9.2 _6.8 _0.8 _7.6 _4.1 _3.0 __ 43.9 ____ 27 _33 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER ___ ---- _ ---- _3.5 _8.8 _10.0_2.6 _7.6 _4.7 _1.6 _4.8 __ 43.6 ____ 32 _34 __ THE_PIT ________________6.0 _1.2 _7.4 _1.4 _3.8 _8.8 _4.3 _2.6 _0.7 _6.0 __ 42.2 ____ 36 _35 __ DOCTOR32 _____________ 1.6 _3.9 _6.4 _5.0 _3.1 _1.4 _5.3 _9.4 _1.2 _---- __ 37.3 ____ 34 _36 __ VIRTUALSPHERE ________4.4 _1.0 _8.1 _1.6 _9.8 _3.0 _1.8 _0.6 _---- _6.8 __ 37.1 ____ 42 _37 __ DANIEL* ________________3.8 _5.9 _4.7 _4.3 _3.4 _6.3 _---- _4.9 _3.1 _---- __ 36.4 ____ 35 _38 __ SIMSHADY ______________8.2 _8.4 _0.4 _7.2 _9.8 _1.8 _--- _ ---- _---- _---- __ 35.8 ____ 37 _T39__DIAGONAL RED LINE ____ ---- _ ---- _ 2.1 _6.9 _6.4 _6.8 _9.8 _2.6 _---- _---- __ 34.6 ____ 38 _T39__WEATHER 26 ___________ ---- _ 4.7 _4.3 _9.5 _0.9 _4.7 _8.2 _0.4 _0.9 _1.0 __ 34.6 ____ 40 _T39__ALEXISJ9 _______________2.8 _5.5 _1.9 _---- _0.2 _1.0 _3.0 _4.3 _9.6 _6.3 __ 34.6 ____ 44 _42 __ TIMMYTOUR ____________ 9.4 _0.2 _7.4 _1.7 _ ---- _8.8 _6.3 _---- _---- _---- __ 33.8 ____ 39 _43 __ VIZZY2004 ______________9.0 _9.0 _8.9 _2.6 _0.5 _ --- _---- _---- _---- _3.5 __ 33.5 ____ 43 _44 __ CHRIS. R ______________ 6.2 _0.6 _9.3 _7.9 _ ---- _---- _---- _7.0 _ ---- _---- __ 31.0 ____ 41 _45 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT ____ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _5.7 _ 9.0 _5.7 _0.4 _8.5__ 29.3 ____ 50 _46 __ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ____---- _---- _---- _0.7 _8.6 _---- _ ---- _5.3 _6.6 _6.8 __28.0 ____ 49 _47 _THUNDERYWINTRYSHOWERS 8.6_--- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _7.2 _8.8 _---- _---- __24.6 ____ 45 _48 __ ED STONE _____________ 4.4 _1.6 _5.3 _1.2 _1.1 _ --- _ 1.2 _1.0 _6.2 _0.8 __ 22.8 ____ 47 _49 _ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER_3.6_0.8 _1.6 _3.3 _9.8 _ ----_3.3 _---- _ ---- _---- __ 22.4 ____ 46 _50 __ TJM14 ________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _5.3 _5.9 _1.8 _8.4 _---- __ 21.4 ____ 48 _51 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST __ 0.8 _0.0 _3.5 _2.6 _---- _5.9 _---- _---- _6.9 _0.5 __ 20.2 ____ 51 _52 __ B87 ___________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _9.2_10.0 _---- _---- _---- __ 19.2 ____ 52 _53 __ GREAT PLUM ___________---- _---- _7.4 _7.4 _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- __ 14.8 ____ 53 _54 __ ROBBIE GARRETT _______ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _0.8 _4.3 _---- _8.9 _---- __ 14.0 ____ 54 _55 __ LEO97T ________________---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _8.2 _5.4 _---- __13.6 ____ 55 _56 __ FOZFOSTER ____________---- _5.3 _4.3 _3.8 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 13.4 ____ 56 _57 __ RAIN RAIN RAIN ________ ---- _ 2.4_10.0_---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- __ 12.4 ____ 57 _58 __ EMMETT GARLAND______---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _ 3.6 _8.0 _---- __11.6 ____ 58 _59 __ TERMINAL MORAINE ____ 9.6 _---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _1.4 _---- _---- __ 11.0 ____ 59 _60 __ SEASONALITY __________ --- _--- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _10.0 _---- _---- __ 10.0 ____ 60 _61 __ NORTHWEST SNOW _____ ---- _---- __9.5 _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _----_---- _---- __ 9.5 ____ 61 _62 __ EVENING STAR _________ ---- _---- __---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _----_---- _ 9.0 __ 9.0 ____ --- _63 __ LETTERBOXER __________---- _ ---- _3.6 _ ---- _4.9 _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 8.5 ____ 62 _64 __ IAPENNELL _____________ ---- _6.3 _---- _---- _ ---- _1.8 _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 8.1 ____ 63 _65 __ MP-R __________________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _ 7.8 _---- _---- _---- __ 7.8 ____ 64 T66 __ BOOFERKING ___________ 3.0 _4.7 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.7 ____T-65 T66 __ CORAM _________________---- _---- _---- _7.7 _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.7 ____T-65 _68 __ V FOR VERY COLD _______ 7.6 _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 7.6 ____ 67 _69 __ LF1002 _________________---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _7.0 _ ---- _ ----_---- _---- __ 7.0 ____ 68 _70 __ RICEY076 ______________ ---- _---- _---- _6.9 _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- __ 6.9 ____ 69 _71__ MOORLANDER __________ 5.8 _---- _---- _0.5 _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- __ 6.3 ____ 70 T72 __ JAMES M _______________---- _---- _5.9 _---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- __ 5.9 ____T-71 T72 __ POLAR MARITIME _______ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _----_ ---- _ ----_ 5.9 _---- __ 5.9 ____T-71 _74 __ CASTELLANUS80 _______ ---- _2.8 _2.3 _ ---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- __ 5.1 ____ 73 T75 __ ROSS90 _______________ ---- _---- _5.0 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- __ 5.0 ____T-74 T75 __ BACKTRACK____________---- _---- _---- _5.0 _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- __ 5.0 ____T-74 _77 __ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ___---- _---- _4.5 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- __ 4.5 ____ 76 T78 _ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM_----_----_----_4.3_ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- __ 4.3 ____ 77 T78 __ ==METEO-MAN==________ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ----_4.3 __ 4.3 ____ --- _80 __ MARK NEAL ____________---- _---- _---- _2.9 _ ---- _ ---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- __ 2.9 ____ 78 _81 __ MATT TARRANT _________---- _---- _---- _2.8 _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- __ 2.8 ____ 79 T82 __ MORE SNOW ___________2.6 _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ ---- _ ---- _---- __ 2.6 ____T-80 T82 __ COLDEST WINTER ______ ---- _---- _---- _ 0.4 _---- _---- _2.2 _ ---- _ ---- _---- __ 2.6 ____T-80 T82 __ DUNCAN McALISTER_____---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _ 2.6 _ ---- _---- __ 2.6 ____T-80 _85 __ STEVE MURR ___________ --- _--- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _---- _ 2.3 _---- ___ 2.3 ____ 83 _86 __ ALLWEATHER ___________--- _--- _---- _---- _----- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _1.8 ___ 1.8 ____ --- T87 __ SKY FULL ______________---- _---- _1.2 _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- __ 1.2 ____T-84 T87 __ 38.5*C _________________---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- _---- _1.2 _ ---- _---- __ 1.2 ____T-84 T89 __ WEIRPIG ______________ 0.4 _---- _----- _----_ ---- _---- _---- _---- _ ---- _---- __ 0.4 ____T-86 T89 __ LETTUCING GUTTED ____ 0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.2 _0.0 _0.0 _0.0 _0.2 _0.0 _0.0 __ 0.4 ____T-86 _91 __ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252---- _---- _0.2 _----_ ---- _---- _---- _---- _---- _---- __ 0.2 ____ 88 _92 __ DEEP SNOW PLEASE ____ ---- _---- _---- _0.0 _ ---- _---- _---- _0.0 _---- _---- __ 0.0 ____ 89 _____________________________________________________________________________ (notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)
  12. _ Report on the Three Robotic Forecasters for September 2018 _ The two normals continue to catch up to consensus with a considerably better score this past month. ___ Past months ____ ____________DEC _________________________ JAN ________________________ FEB "Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) 1987-2016*__ +0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 (88-17)>--0.6 __66.7 - 74.1 _ 15 to 19 ______ +1.9 _ 31.2 - 35.1 _ 51 to 54 1981-2010 __ --0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 ______ --0.9 __ 50.0 - 55.6 _ 25 to 28 ______ +1.5 _ 48.1 - 49.4 _ 40 to 41 Consensus __--0.6 __ 71.0 - 74.9 __20 to 23 _____--0.9 __ 50.0 -55.6 _ 25 to 28 _______+1.1 _ 57.1 - 58.4 _ 33 to 34 * becomes 1988-2017 from JAN onward. ____________ MAR ___________________________________ APR _____________________ MAY ____________ "Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) 1988-2017 __ +1.9 __ 20.8 - 22.1 __ 60 to 61 ____ --1.1 __ 72.2--72,2 __ 18 to 18 _____ --1.3 _ 28.6 - 33.3 _ 43 to 46 1981-2010 __ +1.7 __ 26.1 - 26.1 __ 57 to 57 ____ --1.3 __ 57.4--65.6 __ 22 to 27 _____ --1.5 _ 19.1 - 20.5 _ 51 to 52 Consensus __--0.3 __ 78.9 - 85.5 __12 to 17 ____ --1.4 __ 50.8--55.8 __ 28 to 31 ______ --1.0 _ 46.1 - 54.0 _ 30 to 35 ______________JUN ________________________JUL ___________________________ AUG _____________ "Forecaster" _ Error_ Points (range)_rank (range) __Error _ points (range) _ rank (range) __Error _ points (range) _ rank (range) 1988-2017 __ --1.5 __ 12.0 - 12.0 __ 57 to 57 ____ --2.4 __ 03.1 - 03.1 __ 63 to 63 ____ --0.1 ___ 95.3 - 98.4 __ 02 to 04 1981-2010 __ --1.6 __ 04.1 - 10.4 __ 58 to 62 ____ --2.4 __ 03.1 - 03.1 __ 63 to 63 ____ --0.2 ___ 93.7 - 93.7 __ 05 to 05 Consensus __--0.3 __ 74.9 - 82.7 __ 12 to 17 ____ --0.9 __ 51.6 - 53.2 __ 31 to 32 ____ +1.3 ___ 53.0 - 55.2 __ 29 to 31 ________ Current Month __ Sep 2018 ________________ Contest year averages to date (10 mo)___ "Forecaster" _Aug Error_Aug Points (range)_rank (range) // mean abs error_mean points_mean rank 1988-2017 ___ +0.4 _____ 83.3 - 83.3 ____ 11 to 11 ________ 1.14 _____ 48.4 - 52.5 __ 33 to 35 1981-2010 ___ +0.3 _____ 85.0 - 88.3 ____ 08 to 10 ________ 1.16 _____ 46.9 - 50.0 __ 31 to 33 Consensus ___+1.2 _____ 43.3 - 51.7 ____ 30 to 35 ________ 0.90 _____ 57.7 - 64.0 __ 26 to 30 _______________________________________________________________________________ The two normals have made more headway in their struggle to catch Consensus, but it will take two more similar performances to make things nearly even at the end (after two more months).
  13. Subject to confirmation by J10 in the scoring report, these would be the top ranked forecasts for September (no forecasts of 13.7, those for 13.8 and 13.6 share top five, ranks based on order of entry which is the number in brackets after forecasters' names, then 13.9 and 13.5 are 6th and 7th while 13.4 and 14.0 share 8th to 10th place: 14.0 __ average 1981-2010 and 8th -- Summer Blizzard (5), 10th -- davehsug (56) 13.9 __ 6th -- weather26 (4) 13.8 __ 1st -- Kirkcaldy Weather (13), 2nd -- coldest winter (18), 3rd -- daniel* (35), 4th -- weather-history (38) 13.7 __ September 2018 13.6 __ 5th -- ProlongedSnowLover (43) 13.5 __ 7th -- Godber.1 (49) 13.4 __ 9th -- AlexisJ9 (15) A few days ago I posted a provisional scoring summary for EWP (NCIC version) which is just an estimate based on the Hadley daily tracker, could need a bit of revision when the actual number comes in, but will give you some idea how you did there (it's over in the scoring thread). My estimate for the NCIC version is 64 mm. I will post an update of the scoring exploits of the three robotic forecasters next, looks like the two Norms are trying to catch Consensus in a last minute burst of amazing accuracy.
  14. The last ten days averaged 10.9 C, so not quite in the bottom twenty but close to it. A list of the years that had 10.0 or colder in that period (21-30 September) can be found earlier in this thread.
  15. 1981-2010 CET averages, cumulative and 1772 - 2017 record values ________________________________________________________________ Date __ CET __ cum ____ MAX ________ MIN 01 ___ 12.9 ___ 12.9 ___ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808&1888) 02 ___ 12.3 ___ 12.6 ___ 17.9 (2011) ___ 3.6 (1817) 03 ___ 12.1 ___ 12.4 ___ 19.8 (2011) ___ 4.7 (1817) 04 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.3 ___ 17.7 (1959) ___ 5.1 (1912) 05 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.2 ___ 17.9 (1886) ___ 4.6 (1888) 06 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.1 ___19.0 (1921) ___ 4.1 (1888) 07 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.1 ___16.9 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1829) 08 ___ 11.8 ___ 12.0 ___17.7 (1995) ___ 4.1 (1829) 09 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.0 ___17.5 (1995) ___ 3.3 (1852) 10 ___ 12.5 ___ 12.0 ___17.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1814) 11 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.0 ___ 17.6 (1978) ___ 3.9 (1860) 12 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.0 ___ 16.5 (1978) ___ 3.2 (1887) 13 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.9 ___ 16.8 (1990) ___ 2.2 (1838) 14 ___ 10.9 ___ 11.8 ___ 17.2 (2017) ___ 3.1 (1838) __ max was 16.1 (1990) 15 ___ 10.8 ___ 11.8 ___ 15.7 (1930) ___ 2.5 (1843) 16 ___ 10.3 ___ 11.7 ___ 16.4 (2017) ___ 1.8 (1843) __ max was 15.8 (1818) 17 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.6 ___ 15.6 (1897) ___ 2.5 (1824) 18 ___ 10.1 ___ 11.5 ___ 16.7 (2014) ___ 2.4 (1843) 19 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.4 ___ 16.3 (1921) ___ 1.5 (1813) 20 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.3 ___ 14.9 (1795) ___ 2.1 (1842) 21 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.3 ___ 15.2 (1998) ___ 1.2 (1842) 22 ____ 9.9 ___ 11.2 ___ 16.2 (1906) ___ 2.5 (1931) 23 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.4 (1998) ___ 0.9 (1859) 24 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.3 (2009) ___ 0.6 (1859) __ 14.2 in 2017 close to max 25 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.0 __ 14.0 (1978, 2013) _ 2.0 (1784) __ 13.9 in 2017 close to max 26 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.7 (1927) ___ 1.5 (1785) 27 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 16.7 (1888) ___ 1.4 (1869) 28 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 15.6 (1888) ___ 0.9 (1895) 29 ____ 8.9 ___ 10.8 __ 14.0 (1772,1984) _ 0.3 (1895) 30 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.7 ___ 15.5 (2005) ___ 0.7 (1836) 31 ____ 9.3 ___ 10.7 ___ 16.9 (2014) ___ 0.7 (1836)
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