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Roger J Smith

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Roger J Smith last won the day on December 24 2011

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About Roger J Smith

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    Vancouver BC Canada
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    forecast research on a global scale, thus an interest in UK weather as part of a larger research program that concentrates mainly on severe weather in North America.

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  1. November CET means and extremes (table now includes all years 1981 to 2016) 15.4 ... warmest day (5th, 1938) 14.4 ... warmest day in second half (22nd, 1947) 10.1 ... warmest Nov 1994 9.6 ... second warmest Nov 2011 9.5 ... tied third warmest Nov 1818 and 2015 9.4 ... fifth warmest Nov 1938 9.3 ... sixth warmest Nov 1743 9.2 ... seventh warmest Nov 1730 9.1 ... eighth warmest Nov 1817 8.9 ... ninth warmest Nov 1881 8.7 ... tied tenth warmest Nov 1939 and 2009 8.6 ... tied 12th warmest Nov 2014 (with 1821) 8.5 ... ... ... ... 2002 8.4 ... ... ... ... 1997 8.1 ... ... ... ... 2003, 2006 8.0 ... ... ... ... 1982, 1984 7.9 ... ... ... ... 1999 7.8 ... ... ... ... 1981, 1986 7.7 ... ... ... ... 1995, 2004 7.6 ... ... ... ... 7.5 ... ... ... ... 1983, 2001 ,.. ... ... ---- mean of 2001-2016 ---- 7.4 ... ... ... ... 1992 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- mean of 1991-2016 ---- 7.3 ... ... ... ... 2007 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- mean of 1986-2015 ---- 7.2 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. ---- mean of 1987-2016 ---- 7.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. ---- mean of 1981-2010 ---- 7.0 ... ... ... ... 2000, 2008 6.9 ... ... ... ... 1990 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- mean of 1971-2000 ---- 6.8 ... ... ... ... 1991, 2012 6.7 ... ... ... ... 6.6 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...... ---- mean of 1961-1990 ---- 6.5 ... ... ... ... 1987 ... ... ... ... ...... ---- mean of 1901-2000 ---- 6.4 ... ... ... ... 6.3 ... ... ... ... 6.2 ... ... ... ... 1989, 1998, 2005, 2013 6.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of all years 1659-2016 ---- 6.0 ... ... ... ... 5.9 ... ... ... ... 1996 ... ... ... ...... ---- mean of 1801-1900 ---- 5.8 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...... ---- mean of 1701-1800 ---- 5.6 ... ... ... ... 2016 ... ... ...... .. ---- mean of 1659-1700 ---- 5,2 .... coldest since 1993 were 1988, 2010 (tied 90th coldest) 4.6 .... coldest since 1985 was 1993 (tied 52nd coldest) 4.1 .... coldest in recent years (tied 28th overall) 1985 3.3 .... tied eighth coldest 1740, 1746, 1786, 1919, 1923 3.2 .... tied sixth coldest 1862 with 1910 3.1 .... fifth coldest Nov 1851 3.0 .... fourth coldest Nov 1684 2.9 .... third coldest Nov 1807 2.8 .... second coldest Nov 1915 2.3 .... coldest Nov 1782 --0.6 ... earliest sub-zero mean (7th, 1791) --2.1 ... coldest in first half (15th, 1965) --4.6 ... coldest day (24th, 1904) __________________________________________________ daily records are for the period 1772 to 2016 monthly extreme values are for the period 1659 to 2016 Enter your forecast in the thread by end of Tuesday, 31st October or take the increasing late penalties from 1st to the end of 3rd Nov, This month will end the 2016-17 competition year. Good luck !!
  2. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Does anybody else get this screen? MEAN CET FOR 2017 10 MONTHS HAVE DATA 17/10/2017 10:35:33.000 2017 63 241 291 134 227 200 97 10 16 234 -32768 -32768 2017 445 616 859 923 1344 1616 1702 1588 1376 1384 -32768 -32768 1 52 87 50 108 123 171 174 157 135 143 -32768 -32768 2 25 98 62 97 110 159 166 164 137 141 -32768 -32768 3 27 74 69 92 98 146 167 169 137 116 -32768 -32768 4 56 45 76 106 122 131 171 168 173 124 -32768 -32768 5 13 34 56 81 109 123 184 150 174 130 -32768 -32768 6 31 21 55 81 104 124 209 140 143 109 -32768 -32768 7 67 51 61 95 117 137 184 160 138 130 -32768 -32768 8 78 38 84 103 89 151 174 142 154 128 -32768 -32768 9 77 15 96 132 88 150 195 150 134 135 -32768 -32768 10 77 19 85 94 99 157 167 147 123 147 -32768 -32768 11 78 16 106 86 128 159 149 139 137 146 -32768 -32768 12 41 31 108 102 133 148 162 168 133 126 -32768 -32768 13 29 58 82 82 135 158 169 143 131 149 -32768 -32768 14 36 53 103 99 137 170 161 155 119 173 -32768 -32768 15 66 64 102 94 128 163 172 168 117 156 -32768 -32768 16 76 71 85 88 152 163 185 154 117 161 -32768 -32768 17 58 84 77 90 133 197 174 180 118 -32768 -32768 -32768 18 54 81 99 70 113 207 197 155 122 -32768 -32768 -32768 19 52 85 117 83 119 220 190 145 117 -32768 -32768 -32768 20 36 110 102 105 106 201 158 145 138 -32768 -32768 -32768 21 10 99 58 111 127 217 161 164 143 -32768 -32768 -32768 22 11 97 60 104 161 180 154 191 113 -32768 -32768 -32768 23 28 78 64 91 155 159 151 182 148 -32768 -32768 -32768 24 29 58 81 95 178 169 176 159 151 -32768 -32768 -32768 25 36 72 74 53 194 159 171 158 149 -32768 -32768 -32768 26 8 91 88 59 198 151 174 178 153 -32768 -32768 -32768 27 21 60 78 62 186 159 153 172 152 -32768 -32768 -32768 28 38 33 93 94 163 139 157 187 152 -32768 -32768 -32768 29 41 -32768 107 94 149 127 160 162 147 -32768 -32768 -32768 30 52 -32768 147 121 157 150 157 138 123 -32768 -32768 -32768 31 78 -32768 137 -32768 152 -32768 157 130 -32768 -32768 -32768 -32768 If you do, here's a better version for October only: MEAN CET FOR (Oct) 2017 2017 _ +2.34 2017 _ 13/84 1 ___ 14.3 _____ 6 ___ 10.9 ______ 11 ___ 14.6 _____ 16 ___ 16.1 2 ___ 14.1 _____ 7 ___ 13.0 ______ 12 ___ 12.6 3 ___ 11.6 _____ 8 ___ 12.8 ______ 13 ___ 14.9 4 ___ 12.4 _____ 9 ___ 13.5 ______ 14 ___ 17.3 5 ___ 13.0 ____ 10 ___ 14.7 ______ 15 ___ 15.6 As noted by BFTV, 14th and 16th are new record highs. Previously 14th was 16.1 (1990) and 16th was 15.8 (1818). The 15th fell 0.1 short of 1930's 15.7 so may be in play for the final numbers. Today's record high is 15.6 from 1897. Assuming that the mean remains near 13.7 after today, the following years were running warmer by the end of 17 days ... 1. 1921 (14.9) 2. 1949, 1959, 1995 (14.7) 5. 2011 (14.3) 6. 1908, 2001 (14.2) 8. 1969 (14.1) (tied 1831 at 13.7) ... 2006 was 13.5 at this point.
  3. Hurricane Ophelia

    Not significantly west, reorganization due to rapidly developing upper low has caused a brief jog to NNW but NNE track will resume now to landfall in western Ireland. K1 buoy dropped almost 16 mbs from 21z to 00z as centre very close to there now (around 49N 12W).
  4. This winter will be like 1947 and 1963, it will have a December the year before and a January and February. Otherwise no.
  5. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Slight error to report from my previous comment, Ed Stone has 12.4 C not 12.2 C, below him we go all the way to 11.7 where we find IRememberAtlantic252 and 11.6 is Mapantz. Below that the entries pick up. Here's the top 15 Octobers that this one may join ... 1. 13.3 __ 2001 2. 13.1 __ 2005 3, 13,0 __ 1969, 2006 5, 12.9 __ 1995 6. 12.8 __ 1921 7. 12.7 __ 1831 8. 12.6 __ 1959, 2011 10. 12.5 __ 1968, 2014, 2015 13. 12.3 __ 1731, 1811 15. 12,0 __ 1818 (four tied at 11.9)
  6. Hurricane Ophelia

    Alone among the major models, GEM tracks it 1987-style towards southern England. Same date hmm. There's more in heaven and earth than is forecast in your model suite? Somebody's going to be getting the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.
  7. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    The last time I ventured into near-record CET prediction land was Dec 2015 and that one even surpassed the LG mark, as I recall he had 9.0 and reality was 9.7 C. My timid punt was 7.4 which seemed daring at the time. This month we have 15.5 from LG and 12.7 from me, and going entirely on memory here, I think Ed Stone posted 12.2. I don't think it's possible to get to 15.5 from the current 11.8 to 12.0 but these forecast warm days will change the running mean to about 13,0 or even 13,5 -- however, from Tuesday on, means appear closer to 10-11 range and I would still say Ed Stone is the bettor's choice at this stage, 13.2 to 17th and 10.5 average 18th-31st gives an outcome of 12.0,
  8. Hurricane Ophelia

    Fiona: If this brings any strong winds to Britain they would likely be from south to southwest, and I think the central belt of Scotland gets its strongest winds when the direction is westerly due to the channelling effects of the terrain. So with the current low probability of your being in the worst location anyway, I wouldn't worry about this situation, it will probably be an issue for Northern Ireland and western Scotland.
  9. Hurricane Ophelia

    This has more similarity to Debbie 1961 than to the October 1987 case, at least so far on most models. That storm likely became extratropical around 48N 15W before racing past western Ireland and causing very strong wind gusts especially around Donegal, Derry and other parts of west Ulster. In fact the model trend has been to track Ophelia further west with only a glancing blow for those same areas and later for northwest Scotland, but this trend may reverse closer to the time. The difference "on the ground" when a cat-1 hurricane becomes extratropical is mostly academic, the radius of strong winds would likely expand somewhat and the storm will lose its intense inner core and features such as an intact eyewall although remnants will continue to circulate. The exact timing is not that important as locations along the track would likely experience just about the same results especially for these relatively weak eastern Atlantic hurricanes which are somewhat marginally tropical at their best, which is not to say they are weak as far as wind gusts, more in terms of tropical organization. In the western part of the Atlantic basin, an extratropical transition could be much more dramatic in terms of changing the storm's wind field. This concept was not really developed in 1961 with Debbie which was analyzed as a hurricane until it was around 53 deg north but by today's standards it was probably extratropical a day earlier than that.
  10. The Seasonal Forecast Thread

    Starting to work on a winter forecast, the first step is to identify best analogues from monthly averages January to October. I have used a mild 12.5 for October in this calculation. The calculation is the total of differences squared for each of the ten months so far this year. TOP THIRTY ANALOGUES 1659 to 2016 Rank __ Year, Sum Squares ___ Winter CET Means Nov to Mar following - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -NOV_DEC_JAN_FEB_MAR _ 01 ___ 1822, 07.66 _________ 8.2 _ 1.6 _--0.1_ 3.1 _ 5.0 _ 02 ___ 2014, 11.72 _________ 8.6 _ 5.2 _ 4.4 _ 4.0 _ 6.4 _ 03 ___ 2000, 12.31 _________ 7.0 _ 5.8 _ 3.2 _ 4.4 _ 5.2 _ 04 ___ 1828, 12.40 _________ 7.4 _ 7.4 _ 0.3 _ 4.3 _ 4.3 _ 05 ___ 2009, 13.89 _________ 8.7 _ 3.1 _ 1.4 _ 2.8 _ 6.1 _ 06 ___ 1998, 13.91 _________ 6.2 _ 5.5 _ 5.5 _ 5.3 _ 7.4 _ 07 ___ 1950, 14.64 _________ 5.7 _ 1.2 _ 3.9 _ 3.7 _ 4.1 _ 08 ___ 1706, 14.84 _________ 6.1 _ 4.7 _ 3.5 _ 3.0 _ 5.0 _ 09 ___ 1957, 14.92 _________ 6.4 _ 4.5 _ 3,4 _ 4.7 _ 3.7 _ 10 ___ 1943, 15.14 _________ 6.3 _ 3.5 _ 5.8 _ 3.6 _ 5.2 _ 11 ___ 1831, 15.27 _________ 5.6 _ 5.8 _ 3.1 _ 3.4 _ 5.8 _ 12 ___ 1801, 15.53 _________ 4.8 _ 1.5 _ 1.6 _ 3.7 _ 5.6 _ 13 ___ 1960. 15.80 _________ 7.3 _ 3.9 _ 3.9 _ 6.9 _ 8.2 _ 14 ___ 2002, 15.97 _________ 8.5 _ 5.7 _ 4.5 _ 3.9 _ 7.5 _ 15 ___ 1961. 16.21 _________ 6.0 _ 2.2 _ 4.3 _ 4.4 _ 2.8 _ 16 ___ 1759, 16.42 _________ 5.1 _ 2.5 _ 1.9 _ 3.8 _ 6.6 _ 17 ___ 1999, 16.49 _________ 7.9 _ 5.0 _ 4.9 _ 6.3 _ 7.6 _ 18 ___ 1834, 16.68 _________ 6.7 _ 5.6 _ 2.9 _ 5.7 _ 5.8 _ 19 ___ 1781, 16.75 _________ 6.5 _ 5.4 _ 5.2 _ 1.9 _ 4.1 _ 20 ___ 1959, 16.79 _________ 7.1 _ 6.0 _ 3.8 _ 4.1 _ 6.4 _ 21 ___ 1775, 17.16 _________ 4.8 _ 4.5 _--1.6_ 3.8 _ 6.4 _ 22 ___ 1859, 17.31 _________ 4.8 _ 1.6 _ 3.5 _ 1.7 _ 4.7 _ 23 ___ 2005, 17.45 _________ 6.2 _ 4.4 _ 4.3 _ 3.7 _ 4.9 _ 24 ___ 1982, 17.51 _________ 8.0 _ 4.4 _ 6.7 _ 1.7 _ 6.4 _ 25 ___ 1989, 17.67 _________ 6.2 _ 4.9 _ 6.5 _ 7.3 _ 8.3 _ 26 ___ 1893, 17.75 _________ 5.2 _ 4.8 _ 3.4 _ 5.1 _ 6.7 _ 27 ___ 1994, 17.93 _________10,1 _ 6.4 _ 4.8 _ 6.5 _ 5.6 _ 28 ___ 1878, 17.95 _________ 3.5 _--0.3_--0,7_ 3.1 _ 4.7 _ 29 ___ 1967, 18.37 _________ 5.4 _ 4.2 _ 4.4 _ 1.9 _ 6.3 _ 30 ___ 1732, 18.46 _________ 6.3 _ 2.2 _ 6.9 _ 6.0 _ 5.9 Average of 30 analogues ______ 6.6 _ 4.1 _ 3,5 _ 4.0 _ 5.7 _______________________________________________________________ The averages suggest not much deviation from normal over the winters, but it can be seen that the analogues diverge into two sets, one with a cold theme and one with a mild theme. High variability seems to be more in play than usual in the winters after similar years to 2017. This is not meant to be a winter forecast, it is just a data set for use in creating a forecast. I will be looking at similar solar years within these cases, and trends over time. What does stand out is that analogues cluster around three periods -- one is in the Dalton and has some colder winters, one is around 1957 to 1962, and the third is more recent, in particular, 1998 to 2002. Perhaps it is not surprising to find a lot of analogues from the past 30 years of data (9, where the expected number at random is 2.5). However, the recent similarity is centered further back than the very recent past and closer to what many might consider the peak of the "milder winters" interval, so in reality, what we're getting from this set of analogues is a rather challenging composite -- the tendency used to be mostly towards cold winters, now more recently it has been to sustain mild weather, although the second most recent analogue (2009-10) was a cold winter. Thoughts appreciated, I am in no great rush to finish this winter forecast as my other numerical guidance is also very scattered. My subjective feeling is that we're in a highly zonal pattern that will take at least the first half of the winter to break down.
  11. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Updated table of entries including three late ones, sixty in total, median still 10.6 C. https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8 I am within visual contact range of Lettucing Gutted, how's it going up there?
  12. Table of entries for October 2017 CET forecast More historical data can be found in post #1 of the October thread. This table only preserves recent normals and a few extremes. This table lists 57 on-time as well as three late entries. The order of forecasts posted (number in brackets after each name) ... applies to latest forecast provided, edit times are considered in this process (if the value changes, not for clarified numbers). Earlier versions of later revised forecasts are not in the queue. Late entries are marked (L-1) to (L-3) for their order of appearance, the number of days late happens to be the same as those numbers this month. 20.2 __ _ _ _ _ _ warmest day (1st, 1985) 15.5 __ LETTUCING GUTTED (11) 13.3 __ -_ _ _ - _ _ _ warmest (2001) 13.1 __ second warmest (2005) 12.7 __ ROGER J SMITH (54) 12.6 __ 12.5 __ 12.4 __ ED STONE (12) 12.3 __ 12.2 __ 12.1 __ 12.0 __ 11.9 __ 11.8 __ 11.7 __ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 (32) 11.6 __ MAPANTZ (8) 11.5 __ SUMMER SUN (26), BLAST FROM THE PAST (45) 11.4 __ VIRTUALSPHERE (25), REEF (43) 11.3 __ MAN WITH BEARD (35) 11.2 __ WEATHER26 (4), BORN FROM THE VOID (31) 11.1 _ POLAR GAEL (22), SEASIDE 60 (34), DAMIANSLAW (37), MARK BAYLEY (42), STATIONARY FRONT (51) 11.0 _ BOBD29 (16),GAEL_FORCE (38) 10.9 __ mean 1987-2016 __ JVENGE (15), DANCER WITH WINGS (27), MULZY (39) 10.8 __ RADIATING DENDRITE (1), SNOWRAY (24) 10.7 __ mean 1981-2010 __ SUMMER BLIZZARD (13), SINGULARITY (49), DAVEHSUG (55) 10.6 __ JONATHAN F. (18), DON(45), DUNCAN McALISTER (46), J10 (50), MIDLANDS ICE AGE (52) ========================== consensus (median) is 10.6 ==================================== 10.5 __ STEVEB (5), DR(S)NO (28), GODBER.1 (33), SYED2878 (34), STEWFOX (41), THE PIT (44) ____________ POLAR MARITIME (53) 10.4 __ SIMSHADY (6), SUNDOG (30), DAVID SNOW (47), CHRIS R (57), PROLONGED SNOW LOVER (L-3) 10.3 __ JEFF C (19), STARGAZER (56) 10.2 __ DANIEL* (23). WEATHER-HISTORY (40) 10.1 __ PEGG24 (2), PROLONGEDSNOWLOVER (10), DAMI (L-1) 10.0 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE (21), JONBOY (36) 9.9 __ NN2013 (7) 9.8 __ VIZZY2004 (3) 9.7 __ ALEXISJ9 (20) 9.6 __ 9.5 __ 9.4 __ LET IT SNOW! (17) 9.3 __ ROSS ANDREW HEMPHILL (29) 9.2 __ TIMMYTOUR (L-2) 9,1 __ RELATIVISTIC (14) 9.0 __ 8.8 __ SUMMER of 95 (48) 5.3 __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ coldest (1740) 0.3 __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ coldest day (29th, 1895) _______________________________________________________________________ 57 on-time entries, and three late, median 10.6 C ... ... late entries marked (L-1) to (L-3), this is both the order of posting and the number of days late.
  13. September 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    UPDATES for recent normals and Consensus in the scoring. Table of forecast errors and position points (Normal 1987-2016 played Dec as 1986-2015) Error stat is forecast value minus actual value. Negative value means normal or consensus too low. ... Positive means normal or consensus too high. The average error (not absolute) is 0.7 deg too low for Normal 1981-2010 and 0.5 too low for normals of most recent 30 years, The average error of our consensus is also 0.5 too low. We have been too low six times and too high four times, one of the six too low was within 0.1. Our largest errors were in December, February, March and May. Errors are then averaged by absolute values as in our scoring tables, and points are totalled. These values appear in the second last column (mean/T). Positions are relative to all players who have entered at least 9/10 months so far (this is more relevant to the average errors than the total points). FORECASTER ____ Dec _ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep __ mean/T __ position Normal 1981-2010 _ -1.4 _ +0.4_ -1.7_ -2.1_ -0.4 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 _ -0.1 _ +0.8 _ +0.5 ___ 1.04 __ 8th __ points _________ 79.6_ 69.9_ 56,1_ 59.0_ 86.8 _49.7__7.5 _ 93.7 _ 61.8 _ 86.3 __ 650.4 __ 4th Normal 1987-2016 _ -1.0 _ +0.6_ -1.3_ -2.0__ -0.1 _-1.4_ -1.5 _ -0.1 _ +0.9 _ +0.6 ___ 0.95 __t-5th __ points _________ 89.8_ 58.0_ 67.4_ 61.8_ 98.4_ 53.0__7.5 _93.7 _ 56.6 _ 82.9 __ 669.1 __ 3rd Consensus _______ -2.1 _ -0.1_ -1.8_ -2.2 _ +0.9 _-1.3 _ -0.5 _+0.4 _ +0.9 _ +1.0 ___ 1.12 _ t-13th __ points _________ 50.0 _95.7 _52.4 _56.2 _57.1 _56.4 _72.4_ 70.1 _ 56.6 _ 60.7 __ 627.6 __ 6th The best strategy appears to be to predict 0.3 or 0.4 higher than recent normals. Somebody who always did that would have an absolute average error of 0.91 deg and would be ranked third in that statistic. Only Davehsug and IrememberAtlantic252 have lower average errors than that. Also, two contestants who missed the last two months are ahead in rankings (of at least one of the above three "players") but I have only ranked against any who missed zero or one month. Our consensus continues to lag behind the two recent normals but is still in 6th place overall.
  14. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Not too late, entries can be made as late as end of today (3rd) and the table of entries will be updated tomorrow.
  15. October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    1981-2010 CET averages, cumulative and 1772-present record values ________________________________________________________________ Date __ CET __ cum ____ MAX ________ MIN 01 ___ 12.9 ___ 12.9 ___ 20.2 (1985) ___ 6.1 (1808&1888) 02 ___ 12.3 ___ 12.6 ___ 17.9 (2011) ___ 3.6 (1817) 03 ___ 12.1 ___ 12.4 ___ 19.8 (2011) ___ 4.7 (1817) 04 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.3 ___ 17.7 (1959) ___ 5.1 (1912) 05 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.2 ___ 17.9 (1886) ___ 4.6 (1888) 06 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.1 ___19.0 (1921) ___ 4.1 (1888) 07 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.1 ___16.9 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1829) 08 ___ 11.8 ___ 12.0 ___17.7 (1995) ___ 4.1 (1829) 09 ___ 11.9 ___ 12.0 ___17.5 (1995) ___ 3.3 (1852) 10 ___ 12.5 ___ 12.0 ___17.8 (1921) ___ 3.5 (1814) 11 ___ 11.7 ___ 12.0 ___ 17.6 (1978) ___ 3.9 (1860) 12 ___ 11.6 ___ 12.0 ___ 16.5 (1978) ___ 3.2 (1887) 13 ___ 11.4 ___ 11.9 ___ 16.8 (1990) ___ 2.2 (1838) 14 ___ 10.9 ___ 11.8 ___ 16.1 (1990) ___ 3.1 (1838) 15 ___ 10.8 ___ 11.8 ___ 15.7 (1930) ___ 2.5 (1843) 16 ___ 10.3 ___ 11.7 ___ 15.8 (1818) ___ 1.8 (1843) 17 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.6 ___ 15.6 (1897) ___ 2.5 (1824) 18 ___ 10.1 ___ 11.5 ___ 16.7 (2014) ___ 2.4 (1843) 19 ___ 10.0 ___ 11.4 ___ 16.3 (1921) ___ 1.5 (1813) 20 ____ 9.8 ___ 11.3 ___ 14.9 (1795) ___ 2.1 (1842) 21 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.3 ___ 15.2 (1998) ___ 1.2 (1842) 22 ____ 9.9 ___ 11.2 ___ 16.2 (1906) ___ 2.5 (1931) 23 ____ 9.6 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.4 (1998) ___ 0.9 (1859) 24 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.1 ___ 14.3 (2009) ___ 0.6 (1859) 25 ____ 9.4 ___ 11.0 __ 14.0 (1978, 2013) _ 2.0 (1784) 26 ____ 9.6 ___ 10.9 ___ 14.7 (1927) ___ 1.5 (1785) 27 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 16.7 (1888) ___ 1.4 (1869) 28 ____ 9.8 ___ 10.9 ___ 15.6 (1888) ___ 0.9 (1895) 29 ____ 8.9 ___ 10.8 __ 14.0 (1772,1984) _ 0.3 (1895) 30 ____ 9.2 ___ 10.7 ___ 15.5 (2005) ___ 0.7 (1836) 31 ____ 9.3 ___ 10.7 ___ 16.9 (2014) ___ 0.7 (1836)
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