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Roger J Smith

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    forecast research on a global scale, thus an interest in UK weather as part of a larger research program that concentrates mainly on severe weather in North America.

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  1. Winter _ coldest 31d __ duration ___ coldest cal month involved ____ (cases with colder cal month, and 31-d assoc) 1980-81 __ 3.1 ______ 29 J - 28 F ____ Feb +3.0 _________________ 1981-82 _ --0.3 ______ 16 D - 15 J ____ Dec +0.3 _________________ 1982-83 __ 1.9 ______ 30 J - 1 M _____ Feb +1.7 _________________ 1983-84 __ 3.1 ______ 19 J - 18 F ____ Feb +3.3 __________________ 1984-85 _ +0.5 ______ 27 D - 26 J ____ Jan +0.8 __________________ 1985-86 _ --1.0 ______ 1 F - 3 M ______ Feb --1.1 _________________ 1986-87 _ +0.4 ______ 3 J - 2 F _______ Jan +0.8 _________________ 1987-88 __ 4.2 ______ 16 N - 16 D _____Dec +5.6 _________________ +4.9 Feb 88 __ (4.4 14 J - 13 F and 4 F - 5 M) 1988-89 __ 4.9 ______ 29 Oct - 28 N ___ Nov +5.2 _________________ 1989-90 __ 4.1 ______ 19 N - 19 D _____Dec +4.9 _________________ (also 14 N - 14 D, 22 N - 22 D) 1990-91 _ +0.3 ______ 22 J - 21 F _____ Feb +1.5 __________________ 1991-92 __ 2.8 _______ 9 J - 8 F ______ Jan +3.7 __________________ 1992-93 __ 2.7 _______ 5 D - 4 J ______ Dec +3.6 __________________ 1993-94 __ 3.4 ______ 27 J - 26 F _____ Feb +3.2 ___________________ 1994-95 __ 4.3 ______ 14 D - 13 J _____ Jan +4.8 ___________________ 1995-96 __ 1.4 ______ 22 J - 21 F _____ Feb +2.5 __________________ +2.3 Dec 95 __ +1.7 from 5 D to 4 J 1996-97 __ 1.4 ______ 22 D - 21 J _____ Jan +2.5 __________________ 1997-98 __ 4.6 ______ 11 J - 10 F _____ Jan +5.2 __________________ 1998-99 __ 4.8 ______ 11 N - 11 D _____ Dec +5.5 _________________ +5.3 Feb 99 __ 5.0 from 16 J to 15 F 1999-2000_ 4.3 ______27 D - 26 J _____ Jan +4.9 __________________ 2000-01 __ 2.3 ______ 23 D - 22 J _____ Jan +3.2 __________________ 2001-02 __ 2.3 ______ 9 D - 8 J _______ Dec +3.6 __________________ 2002-03 __ 3.7 ______ 27 J - 28 M _____ Feb +3.9 __________________ 2003-04 __ 3.9 ______ 12 F - 13 M _____ Feb +5.4 __________________ +4.8 Dec 2003 _ +4.2 5 Dec to 4 Jan 2004-05 __ 3.2 ______12 F - 14 M _____ Feb +4.3 __________________ 2005-06 __ 3.1 ______ 20 F - 22 M _____ Feb +3.7 __________________ 2006-07 __ 4.7 ______ 20 J - 19 F ______Feb +5.8 __________________ highest value of coldest calendar month 2007-08 __ 4.1 ______ 9 D - 8 J _______ Dec +4.9 __________________ 2008-09 __ 2.4 ______ 26 D - 25 J _____ Jan +3.0 __________________ 2009-10 __ 0.0 ______ 14 D - 13 J _____ Jan +1.4 __________________ 2010-11 _ --1.5 ______ 26 N - 26 D _____ Dec --0.7 __________________ 2011-12 __ 2.1 ______ 13 J - 12 F ______ Feb +3.8 __________________ 2012-13 __ 2.3 ______ 10 M - 9 A ______ Mar +2.7 __________________ also +2.3 from 12 J to 11 F 2013-14 __ 5.3 ______ 14 J - 13 F _____ Jan +5.7 __________________highest value of coldest 31-d interval 2014-15 __ 2.8 ______ 14 J - 13 F _____ Jan +4.0 __________________ 2015-16 __ 4.0 ______ 10 F - 11 M _____ Feb +4.9 __________________ 2016-17 __ 3.6 ______ 28 D - 27 J _____ Jan +4.0 __________________ 2017-18 __ 2.4 ______ 2 F - 4 M _______ Feb +2.9 __________________ 2018-19 __ 3.6 ______ 3 J - 4 F _______ Jan +4.0 __________________
  2. Data for the winters 1940 to present Winter _ coldest 31d __ duration ___ coldest cal month involved ____ (cases with colder cal month, and 31-d assoc) 1939-40 _ --1.4 ______ 1-31 Jan ____ Jan --1.4 _________________ 1940-41 _ +0.5 ______ 1-31 Jan ____ Jan +0.5 _________________ 1941-42 __ 0.0 ______ 10 J - 9 F ____Jan +0.1 _________________ 1942-43 __ 4.2 ______ 25 D - 24 J ___Jan +4.9 _________________ 1943-44 __ 2.7 ______ 9 F - 10 M ___ Feb +3.6 _________________ +3.5 Dec 43 __ 3.4 16 N - 16 D 1944-45 __ 0.3 ______ 30 D - 29 J ___ Jan +0.4 _________________ 1945-46 __ 2.3 ______ 28 D - 27 J ___ Jan +2.7 _________________ 1946-47 _ --2.5 ______ 26 J - 25 F ___ Feb --1.9 _________________ 1947-48 __ 4.3 ______ 5 F - 6 M _____ Feb +4.7 _________________ (4.4 from 24 N to 24 D, Dec +5.1) 1948-49 __ 4.0 ______ 16 D - 15 J ____Jan +5.5 _________________ +5.1 Mar __ 4.9 19 F - 21 M 1949-50 __ 2.5 ______ 16 J - 15 F ____ Jan +4.2 _________________ 1950-51 __ 0.9 ______ 3 D - 2 J ______ Dec +1.2 _________________ 1951-52 __ 1.4 ______ 17 J - 16 F ____ Jan +2.7 __________________ 1952-53 __ 1.8 ______ 17 N - 17 D ____ Dec +2.8 _________________ 1953-54 __ 1.1 ______ 22 J - 21 F _____ Feb +2.6 _________________ 1954-55 _ +0.2 ______ 11 F - 13 M _____Feb +1.2 _________________ 1955-56 __ 0.0 ______ 29 J - 28 F _____ Feb --0.2 _________________ 1956-57 __ 4.0 ______ 18 D - 17 J _____Jan +5.5 _________________ +5.3 Feb __ +5.4 2/6 F - 4/8 M 1957-58 __ 2.7 ______ 22 F - 24 M _____Mar +3.7 _________________+3.4 Jan __ +3.2 10 J - 9 F 1958-59 __ 1.4 ______ 4 J - 3 F _______ Jan +1.6 _________________ 1959-60 __ 3.4 ______ 25 J - 24 F _____ Jan +3.8 _________________ 1960-61 __ 3.2 ______ 6 D - 5 J _______ Dec, Jan +3.9 _____________ 1961-62 __ 0.9 ______ 15 D - 14 J _____ Dec +2.2 _________________ (+1.8 22 F - 24 M, Mar +2.8) 1962-63 _ --2.7 ______ 26 D - 25 J _____ Jan --2.1 _________________ (--2.6 for 7 J to 6 F). 1963-64 __ 2.4 ______ 5(18) D - 4(17) J _ Dec +2.6 _________________ 1964-65 __ 2.3 ______ 8 F - 10 M ______ Feb +3.1 _________________ 1965-66 __ 1.6 ______ 25 D - 24 J _____ Jan +2.9 __________________ 1966-67 __ 3.7 ______ 24 D - 23 J _____ Jan +4.5 __________________ 1967-68 __ 1.8 ______ 2 F - 3 M _______ Feb +1.9 __________________ 1968-69 __ 1.0 ______ 2 F - 4 M _______ Feb +1.0 __________________ 1969-70 __ 1.9 ______ 11 F - 13 M _____ Feb +2.9 __________________ (+2.0 from 11 Dec to 10 Jan) 1970-71 __ 2.5 ______ 7 D - 6 J _______ Dec +4.3 __________________ 1971-72 __ 3.4 ______ 25 J - 24 F ______ Jan +3.9 __________________ 1972-73 __ 3.8 ______ 22 D - 21 J ______ Jan +4.5 __________________ +4.3 Feb 73 __ (+4.2 13 F - 15 M) 1973-74 __ 3.9 ______ 17 (25) N - 17 (25) D_Dec +4.9 _________________ 1974-75 __ 4.0 ______ 10 M - 9 A _______ Mar +4.8 _________________ +4.4 Feb 75 __ (+4.6 1 F - 3 M) 1975-76 __ 2.6 ______ 23 J - 22 F _______ Feb +4.5 _________________ 1976-77 __ 2.0 ______ 29 N - 29 D ______ Dec +2.0 __________________ (+2.0 sev'l other int, as late as 18 Dec - 17 Jan) 1977-78 __ 1.9 ______ 22 J - 21 F _______ Feb +2.8 __________________ 1978-79 _ --0.5 ______ 30 D - 29 J _______ Jan --0.4 __________________ 1979-80 __ 1.8 ______ 20 D - 19 J _______ Jan +2.3 ___________________ (to be completed in next post)
  3. The EWP tracker had reached 19 mm by 12th, added perhaps 1 mm on 13th. (total 20 mm) The ten-day GFS forecast amounts are very slight, in some places zero, could not see more than 5-10 mm being added to 23rd, then the last six days of the run also look rather dry with some rain looming from a southward dropping front at end of the run on 29th. No reason to change the provisional table from current last posted version of 40 mm. Anything lower than 40 can only benefit two scores in any case, and only one (Blast from the Past who said 20 mm) significantly. He's already shown making an upward move which could be slightly improved with a lower outcome. Depending on how much improvement in rank, his total (currently 10th) can pass some or all of the four players shown 6th to 9th for the year. The only other forecast below 40 mm was from myself and in the current scoring that was already second with a larger margin between annual scores, so that would not change from 14th with a slightly higher score. Everyone else is almost locked in at outcomes lower than 43 mm. (that table was posted a few days back). If it stays dry as predicted, Fred wins at any value 27.0 or lower, I'm at 34.2, holding down 27.2 to 37.0 and new entrant freeze had 40 mm with the next highest being 45 (Leo97t) and 46.2 from CheesepuffScott (If it goes a bit wetter he would go from 5th to 4th place). Chrisbell-notthewxman had 47.9 and DAVID SNOW had 49mm. with East Lancs Rain at 50 mm. There wouldn't be much significant change to the scoring until we got past 55 mm then it would reshuffle considerably as there are a lot of forecasts in the high 50s and 60s. Even at 49 mm, the best improvement DAVID SNOW can make relative to the table for 40 mm is just one position (15th to 14th). A moderately wetter outcome has a positive impact on Godber.1 who is the next driest at 56 mm, his total can move up from 9th to as high as 5th with the maximum score, although most of those being passed would improve slightly too so the net effect would be a cluster of similar scores.
  4. This thread started out asking about a run of cold winters and has pretty much fixated on this winter alone. I guess one cold winter is enough of a run for NW readers nowadays. But here's an interesting factoid, sometimes a really memorable winter is not part of any extensive run, for example 1962-63, there were only bits and pieces of cold in winters from 1958 to 1971 otherwise, Feb 1969 perhaps more, some record cold days at both ends of 1965. But that epic winter was not just set among a run of them like perhaps back in the day. For that matter, the 1947 winter was not accompanied by very much, the run was more like 1940 to 1942 with three quite cold winters in a row, then two rather mild ones and 1945 producing a cold January that quickly switched to near record warmth in February. The only runs of cold winters in recent times were probably 2009 to 2013 and before that 1985 to 1987 (you could say 1981-82 to 1986-87 as some cold showed up in between). I just listed some interesting stats in a new thread in the historical weather section, the main theme being that cold spells of monthly proportions don't always neatly fall into calendar months. I found two in particular that were considerable cold "months" but they happened to start and end at mid-months so the monthly means don't look all that impressive. The winter of 2011-12 did something along those lines with the cold spell around 12 Jan to 11 Feb roughly. I suppose many of us are aware that the Dalton solar minimum produced quite a few very cold winters, probably most of the winters from about 1812 to 1830 were on the cold side even by the lower standards of those times. A few milder ones were scattered in there and unfortunately there is no known sure-fire correlation between solar activity and temperature, just statistical trends worth pursuing. The open question now is, can the changing AGW signal or "climate change" overcome the cold bias of low solar, or to what extent can it subdue it? Many probably feel that "back in the day" the outbreak at end of Feb 2018 and early March might have hung on for a week or two without so much push back from the Atlantic. That may be the sort of change we are seeing, a more robust signal like Nov-Dec 2010 can still assert itself but anything less than a solid 9/10 sort of cold signal is going to get its weaknesses exposed from the double whammy of mild ocean temperatures and spreading heat islands. One thing I would like to underscore about this coming winter, whatever the setup or temperature trends, there are some exceptional energy peaks indicated around times of full and new moons as several secondary energy peaks add on simultaneously. This would argue for either intense storms in a westerly flow, or locally heavy snowfall events in a blocked pattern. There might be a Christmas storm of some significance since there's a new moon early on 26th December. That one has the energy most concentrated of all the cases this winter although the full moons on either side in Dec and Jan will be high peaks. Since all the energy is being concentrated like that, long intervals of anticyclonic weather are favoured at times between the peaks. If we can get blocking in the right location, maybe a good outcome for this winter after all. If the energy hits a fast westerly though, expect something like 2013-14.
  5. Just from a purely statistical basis, given the low solar activity there is almost bound to be a cold winter in the next three. Is that not reasoably good news? With the exception of a few days around 1st of March 2018 there hasn't been much if any significant cold since 2013. Feels a bit overdue despite the doom and gloom of warming trends.
  6. Most discussion of cold months assumes that the calendar is the only time frame available. However, not every cold interval of that length happens to fall neatly into a calendar month. In the daily records starting in 1772, we can uncover all cold intervals of that length (31 days is used since December, January and March, three of the five months that have contributed a coldest month of any winter half-year period, have 31 days. What I discovered was interesting on several levels. The average coldest 31-day interval is 0.7 C deg colder than the coldest calendar month. It is not always colder, when February is the coldest calendar month, there needs to be a few equally cold days in late January or early March, otherwise the coldest 31-day interval can be a bit warmer than the cold February. The same is mathematically possible for a cold November but few of them qualified as coldest of the winter season anyway, and those that did usually improved on their low temperature by including a few days or more in December. The range of dates that get into coldest 31-day averages extend a little into October and April. The coldest 31 days of 1988-89 started on 29th of October ending on 28th November (4.9 was the average going unbeaten through the mild winter that followed), the only time that any October dates were used. The second earliest start for any coldest 31-day "month" was 1st of November (to 1 Dec) in 1851-52 (any of 1 to 3 Nov 1851 to any of 1 to 3 Dec averaged 3.0, not surpassed at any point later in the winter of 1851-52). This was also the case for 1 Nov to 1 Dec of 1919 (3.3) in the winter of 1919-20. In 1862-63 and 1910-11, the coldest intervals began on 2 Nov and ended 2 Dec (and in both cases were equalled on 3 and 4 Nov to 3 and 4 Dec). Three "winters" had dates in April using most of a cold March, and the furthest adventures into April was recent, in 1974-75 (10 or 11 March to 9 or 10 April at 4.0 beat anything from the actual winter) and in 2012-2013, when 9 or 10 March to 8 or 9 April was 2.3 C for the coldest 31 days (it tied 10, 12 or 13 Jan to 9, 10 or 12 Feb 2013 at that value). The only other cold 31-d intervals that used any days in April were in 1868-69 (2 Mar to 1 Apr at 3.7) and 1882-83 (1-31 March and 2 Mar to 1 Apr tied at 1.9). In the 248 winters available with daily data, the mean of the coldest calendar month was 2.5 C (before that 1659-1771 it had been 2.1). The coldest 31-d interval averaged 1.8 C so the average "improvement" over the calendar was 0.7 C. This was despite the four cases where the 31-d interval was milder than a cold February by 0.1 or 0.2. There were a handful of cases where the coldest interval was in fact a calendar month, usually January, and that included the coldest month on record, Jan 1795 (-3.1). The coldest 31-d interval turned out to be -3.2 from 1813-14 when 27 or 28 Dec 1813 to 26 or 27 Jan 1814 set that record. The coldest 31-d interval does not always use any days from the coldest calendar month. There were a number of cases where the coldest calendar month did not improve much by using data from adjacent months, while some other interval hidden in the data of milder months turned out to be the coldest 31-day interval. That happened frequently enough to make the 0.7 C deg improvement more like 0.8 for the actual months against which the coldest 31-day interval could be compared directly with the months it improved upon. An example from a recent winter -- 2003-04 -- the coldest interval of 3.9 C was from any of 9, 11 to 14 Feb, to 10, 12 to 15 March, and these two months had mean values of 5.4 and 6.5. But the winter improvement was not 1.5, but only 0.9 as Dec 2003 had an average of 4.8. Within that data, the improvement was only slight, to 4.2 for 5 or 6 Dec to 4 or 5 Jan 2004). This kind of offset cold interval was more likely to occur in mild or at least near normal winters, in particular those where perhaps March was the coldest month but a colder interval was shared by two earlier months. The data for 1772 starting only at 1 Jan seem final given that Nov and Dec of 1771 were quite mild compared to Jan and Feb of that winter (the coldest interval was 0.5 C for 8 Jan to 7 Feb 1772). While the average improvement of the coldest month stat was 0.7 C, the extreme value was 2.9 C and three other cases improved by more than 2 C deg. In the winter of 1860-61, the months of Dec 1860 and Jan 1861 seem cold enough at 1.5 and 1.7 C, but within that period lurks the equal of such notable calendar months as Jan 1940, with 17 Dec to 16 Jan averaging -1.4 C (2.9 lower than the coldest calendar month). The second most prolific hidden cold month in terms of improvement was 2.3 deg, in winter of 1892-93, when 22 Dec 1892 to 21 Jan 1893 managed -0.5 for an average, compared with the 1.8 for Dec 1892 (Jan 1893 warmed to 2.2 overall). The winter cold of Jan and Feb 1917 is probably better known already but hidden within that is quite a cold interval of -1.2 C which improves on the 0.9 C average of February by 2.1 deg. (This cold interval runs from 13 Jan to 12 Feb or any of the next four days). That third best improvement is tied by 1866 although in that case the mark was lowered from a rather mild 4.4 to 2.3 in parts of Feb and Mar. These are the other 31-d intervals that improved from above to below zero C when compared to calendar months, together with the improvements (sometimes rather slight) of the existing subzero months. Since only 1878-79 and 1962-63 had two calendar months that broke the freezing mark (in the daily data period, there were several earlier), it would not be necessary to add any second qualifiers to the list. The new list ranks the post-1772 intervals uncovered without reference to the ranks of winters from 1659 to 1771, which might have also had some hidden gems we will never know about unless somebody finds some daily data. In some cases below, the coldest 31-d interval is determined by second decimal and there were other adjacent periods that averaged the same one-decimal value. COMPARING COLDEST CALENDAR MONTHS and 31-DAY INTERVALS rank_WINTER ___ Coldest cal month ____ Coldest 31-d interval _______ (rank) ___ colder by 01 _ 1794-95 ____ -3.1 Jan 1795 _______ -3.1 _ 1-31 Jan 1795 _________ (2) ____0.0 C deg 02 _ 1813-14 ____ -2.9 Jan 1814 _______ -3.2 _28 Dec 1813 - 27 Jan 1814 (1) ___ 0.3 03 _ 1962-63 ____ -2.1 Jan 1963 _______ -2.7 _26 Dec 1962 - 25 Jan 1963 (3) ___ 0.6 04 _ 1946-47 ____ -1.9 Feb 1947 _______ -2.3 _26 Jan - 25 Feb 1947 ___ (6) ____ 0.4 05 _ 1894-95 ____ -1.8 Feb 1895 _______ -2.6 _23 Jan - 22 Feb 1895 ___ (4) ____ 0.8 06 _ 1854-55 ____ -1.7 Feb 1855 _______ -2.2 _25 Jan - 24 Feb 1855 ___ (t7) ____0.5 07 _ 1775-76 ____ -1.6 Jan 1776 _______ -1.9 _ 3 Jan - 2 Feb 1881 _____(t9) _____0.3 08t_ 1837-38 ____ -1.5 Jan 1838 _______ -2.5 _ 7 Jan - 6 Feb 1838 _____ (5) ____ 1.0 08t_ 1880-81 ____ -1.5 Jan 1881 _______ -1.7 _30 Dec 1880 - 29 Jan 1881 (t11) __ 0.2 10 _ 1939-40 ____ -1.4 Jan 1940 _______ -1.4 _ 1-31 Jan 1940 _______ (t14) ____ 0.0 11 _ 1985-86 ____ -1.1 Feb 1986 _______ -1.0 _ 1 Feb - 3 Mar 1986 ___ (t20) ____-0.1 12 _ 1779-80 ____ -0.9 Jan 1780 _______ -1.0 _ 8 Jan - 7 Feb 1780 ___ (t20) _____0.1 13 _ 1890-91 ____ -0.8 Dec 1890 _______ -1.9 _ 12 Dec 1890 - 11 Jan 1891 (t9) __ 1.1 14t_ 1878-79 ____ -0.7 Jan 1879 _______ -1.0 _ 12 Dec 1878 - 11 Jan 1879 (t20) __0.3 14t_ 2010-11 ____ -0.7 Dec 2010 _______ -1.5 _ 27 Nov 2010 - 27 Dec 2010 (13) __0.8 16 _ 1783-84 ____ -0.6 Jan 1784 _______ -1.2 _17 Jan - 16 Feb 1784 ___ (t18) ___ 0.6 17 _ 1978-79 ____ -0.4 Jan 1979 _______ -0.5 _ 30 Dec 1978 - 29 Jan 1979 (t25) __0.1 18t_ 1788-89 ____ -0.3 Dec 1788 _______ -1.7 _14 Dec 1788 - 13 Jan 1789 (t11) __1.4 18t_ 1796-97 ____ -0.3 Dec 1796 _______ -0.7 _29 Nov 1796 - 29 Dec 1796 (t23) __0.4 18t_ 1819-20 ____ -0.3 Jan 1820 ________-2.2 _24 Dec 1819 - 23 Jan 1820 (t7) ___1.9 21t_ 1829-30 ____ -0.2 Jan 1830 ________-1.4 _ 7 Jan - 6 Feb 1830 ____ (t14) ___ 1.2 21t_ 1874-75 ____ -0.2 Dec 1874 ________-0.2 _ 1-31 Dec 1874 _______ (t30) ___ 0.0 21t_ 1955-56 ____ -0.2 Feb 1956 ________ 0.0 _ 29 Jan - 28 Feb 1956 __ (t37) ___-0.2 24 _ 1822-23 ____ -0.1 Jan 1823 ________-1.3 _27 Dec 1822 - 26 Jan 1823 (17) __ 1.2 (winters listed had to improve to subzero, some did not, so ranks increase faster than list) 25 _ 1941-42 _____ 0.1 Jan 1942 ________ 0.0 _10 Jan - 9 Feb 1942 _____ (t37) __ 0.1 26t_ 1784-85 _____ 0.3 Dec 1784 _______ -0.1 _12 Feb 1785 - 14 Mar 1785 (t32) __0.4* 26t_ 1828-29 _____ 0.3 Jan 1829 _______ -0.3 _ 5 Jan - 4 Feb 1829 _____ (t27) ___0.6 26t_ 1981-82 _____ 0.3 Dec 1981 _______ -0.3 _ 16 Dec 1981 - 15 Jan 1982 _(t27)_0.6 30t_ 1825-26 _____ 0.4 Jan 1826 _______ -0.1 _27 Dec 1825 - 26 Jan 1826 _(t32) _ 0.5 30t_ 1928-29 _____ 0.4 Feb 1929 _______ -0.1 _ 4 Feb to 6 Mar 1929 ____ (t32) __ 0.5 (unranked below this point as numerous missing cases) xx _ 1826-27 _____ 0.7 Feb 1827 _______ -0.2 _20 Jan - 19 Feb 1827 ____ (t30) __ 0.9 xx _ 1849-50 _____ 0.7 Jan 1850 _______ -0.1 _23 Dec 1849 - 22 Jan 1850 _ (t32) _0.8 xx _ 1879-80 _____ 0.7 Dec 1879 _______ -0.1 _21 Nov - 21 Dec 1879 ___ (t32) ___0.8 xx _ 1916-17 _____ 0.9 Feb 1917 _______ -1.2 _15 Jan - 14 Feb 1917 ____ (t18) __ 2,1 xx _ 1840-41 _____ 1.1 Jan 1841 _______ -0.7 _13 Dec 1840 - 12 Jan 1841 _(t23) _ 1.8 xx _ 2009-10 _____ 1.4 Jan 2010 _______ 0.0 _ 15 Dec 2009 - 14 Jan 2010 _ (t37) _1.4 xx _ 1801-02 _____ 1.5 Dec 1801 _______ 0.0 _ 17 Dec 1801 - 16 Jan 1802 _(t37) _ 1.5 xx _ 1798-99 _____ 1.5 Dec 1798 _______ -0.3 _19 Dec 1798 - 18 Jan 1799 (t27) __ 1.8 xx _ 1860-61 _____ 1.5 Dec 1860 _______ -1.4 _17 Dec 1860 - 16 Jan 1861 (t14) __ 2.9 xx _ 1892-93 _____ 1.8 Dec 1892 _______ -0.5 _22 Dec 1892 - 21 Jan 1893 _(t25)__2.3 ____________________________________________________________________ * improved by 0.5 over 0.4 Feb 1785, the coldest 31d int assoc with Dec 1784 was 0.0 for 8 Dec - 7 Jan. _____________________________________________________________________ Recent winters below 1.0 (but not in list above) xx _ 1984-85 _____ 0.8 Jan 1985 _______ 0.5 _28 Dec 1984 - 27 Jan 1985 _______ 0.3 xx _ 1986-87 _____ 0.8 Jan 1987 _______ 0.4 _ 3 Jan to 2 Feb 1987 _____________0.4 xx _ 1990-91 _____ 1.5 Feb 1991 _______ 0.3 _ 22 Jan to 21 Feb 1991 __________ 1.2 Since 2012 xx _ 2011-12 _____ 3.8 Jan 2012 ________ 2.1 _ 13 Jan to 12 Feb 2012 __________ 1.7 xx _ 2012-13 _____ 2.7 Mar 2013 ________ 2.3 _ 10 Mar to 9 Apr, also 13/1 - 12/2 __ 0.4 xx _ 2013-14 _____ 5.7 Jan 2014 ________ 5.3 _ mid Jan to mid Feb 2014 ________ 0.4 xx _ 2014-15 _____ 4.0 Jan 2015 ________ 2.8 _ 14 Jan to 13 Feb 2015 __________1.2 xx _ 2015-16 _____ 4.9 Feb 2016 ________ 4.0 _ 9 Feb to 10 Mar 2016 ___________0.9 xx _ 2016-17 _____ 4.0 Jan 2017 ________ 3.6 _ 27 Dec 2016 to 26 Jan 2017 ______0.4 xx _ 2017-18 _____ 2.9 Feb 2018 ________2.4 _ 2 Feb to 4 Mar 2018 ____________ 0.5 xx _ 2018-19 _____ 4.0 Jan 2019 ________ 3.6 _ 3 Jan to 2 Feb 2019 ____________ 0.4 =================================================================================== A few other large drops to near zero averages: 1785-86 _ 0.4 _ 22 Dec 1785 to 21 Jan 1786 (months were 2.8, 2.7, winter coldest was 2.1 March which fell to 1.2 for 20 Feb to 22 Mar). 1799-1800 _ 0.4 _ 12 Dec to 11 Jan (from 1.5 Dec 1799). 1802-1803 _ 0.1 _ 13 Jan to 12 Feb (from 1.8 Jan 1803). 1853-1854 _ 0.1 _ 15 Dec to 14 Jan (from 1.3 Dec 1853). 1886-1887 _ 0.1 _ 17 Dec to 16 Jan (from 1.9 Dec 1886). 1891-1892 _ 0.5 _ 18 Dec to 17 Jan (from 2.3 Jan 1892). 1954-1955 _ 0.2 _ 11 Feb to 13 Mar (from 1.2 Feb 1955). The coldest months without subzero outcomes for any 31-d interval ... 0.3 Jan 1815 (0.3), 0.4 Dec 1844 (0.2), 0.4 Jan 1945 (0.3) 0.5 Dec 1846 (0.5), 0.5 Jan 1941 (0.5) 0.6 Jan 1774 (0.5). 0.6 Jan 1842 (0.5). =============================================================== Some historical trends involved in this coldest 31-d statistic, including from the pre-daily era of 1659 to 1771. __ (the Dec means shown are for the years previous to the Jans and Febs, so for example 1772-1801 shows Dec 1771 to 1800. Interval _____ Mean coldest 31-d _____ Mean coldest calendar month ____ Mean coldest months D-F 1659-1771 ___ n/a est 1.4 ___________ 2.1 _________________________ (3.8) 2.9 (3.5) 1772-1801 ___ 1.1 _________________ 1.7 _________________________ (3.5) 2.5 (3.9) 1802-1831 ___ 1.1 _________________ 1.9 _________________________ (3.9) 2.3 (4.0) 1832-1861 ___ 1.4 _________________ 2.1 _________________________ (4.3) 3.2 (3.7) 1862-1891 ___ 1.6 _________________ 2.4 _________________________ (3.7) 3.5 (4.4) 1892-1921 ___ 2.1 _________________ 2.9 _________________________ (4.5) 3.9 (4.1) 1922-1951 ___ 2.1 _________________ 2.7 _________________________ (4.5) 3.8 (4.1) 1952-1981 ___ 2.0 _________________ 2.7 _________________________ (4.7) 3.6 (3.7) 1982-2011 ___ 2.5 _________________ 3.2 _________________________ (4.6) 4.4 (4.5) 1990-2019 ___ 2.9 _________________ 3.7 _________________________ (4.9) 4.7 (4.9)
  7. Yes, I meant CET would reach low to mid 15 range at some point before end of the run (yesterday) so that would have been around 21st or so, with some downward movement implied after that. Not saying the month would end at low to mid 15s even before corrections. Looking at current output however, would say that has warmed up near the end of the run compared to what I had in view yesterday, so now would be of the opinion that the rise will continue and we will be sitting in the mid 15 range by the 27th. Projecting the last two days forward it doesn't look like turning a lot colder then either. But as to the correction factor, that could be anything with so much dry weather meaning clear nights and variable minima around the region.
  8. EWP had reached 12 mm by the 8th, added perhaps 3 mm with significant amounts in the southwest mostly on the 9th, and shows a small increase through ten days on the GFS of only about 8 mm on average. The charts from day eleven to sixteen on the 12z GFS don't look all that wet either, in a cool showery flow, perhaps 10-15 mm there for a grand total of about 33-38 mm closing in on the end of the month. As to the CET, that will almost definitely rise steadily with a few pauses, probably reaching the low to mid 15 range. Some of the output near the end of the run looks cool enough to reverse some of that warming but with the usual low confidence on such output that far away.
  9. EWP tracker found 9 mm in the first six days, added nothing to that on the 7th, and looks like settling in around 20-25 mm before an extended dry spell mid-month that lasts to the end of the 12z GFS run (24th 12z) but appears to be breaking down shortly after that. Based on 40 mm, this is how scoring would look at the end of September ... no doubt an alternate version will be posted before the end of this month. EWP20182019SEP.xlsx
  10. EWP had 6 mm in the account as of 3rd, and the addition for the 4th appears to be 0.5 to 1 mm. The ten day GFS projection is around 20 mm to 15th, and from charts now available it looks dry from day 11 to 16 (21st). That only brings the EWP to about 27 mm with a week and a bit left in the month. It also looks increasingly warm compared to average going further into the month. The average thickness appears to be close to 558 dm. This suggests a +2 anomaly, combined with current near normal to 5th, a +1.5 anomaly by the 21st. Could be into the low or mid 15s by then.
  11. Here is the updated scoring file for the EWP contest. EWP20182019AUG.xlsx
  12. Yes I just noticed that value posted (87.3), it will change the ranks and therefore the shared scores of any tied values in the preliminary scoring table (earlier post) but probably not much will happen as a result of that in the annual scoring. I will work on the updated excel file tomorrow (my time, much later today your time) as I have been out in the hot sun here most of the day and can't stay awake. ... On the point about consensus and wild forecasts near the extremes, the EWP contest uses a median consensus so it doesn't really matter how extreme the highest and lowest few forecasts are, the median is the middle forecast of all those submitted. Average might sometimes be affected. And when I do a CET table of entries, my consensus value is also a median but the spreadsheet from J10 has the average. I think sometimes there is a difference of 0.1 so in most cases it doesn't matter much which type of consensus stat we use. If you are unfamiliar with statistics, mean and average are the same thing and are the sum of all values divided by the number of values ... median is derived from the value closest to the middle of the ranked set ... for an odd number of values, it will be the value equal to (n+1) / 2 where n is the number of values (entries in the case of our contest, and that excludes any normals we post). When there is an even number of values, median is the average of two values (entries) on either side of the decimal that results from taking (n+1) / 2 ... as an example, with 48 entries, the median is the average of 24th and 25th ranked entries (as (n+1)/2 is 49/2 or 24.5). For 49 entries the median is the 25th value. (50/2). How much can a very high forecast change average more than median? Let's take the usual example of the LG punt for a value 2 deg above an all-time record. That is often 7 degrees above normal. So let's say consensus is one degree above normal from median and all but that one forecast are randomly distributed on either side of the median. With 49 forecasts, the six degree anomaly of one entry will therefore give an average of 6/49 above the median, or 0.12 roughly. So it only makes 0.1 difference to the average compared to the median (if those assumptions are correct -- if there's one oddly low forecast to balance out, then even less of a contrast between mean and median). EWP is a bit different in that it's easier to go much higher than much lower compared with normal or consensus values. And a few people do go much higher. So I would imagine that the average EWP forecast is maybe 3-5 mm higher than the median forecast. But as average EWP forecast is not ever utilized in any sense, that doesn't affect the contest. (this is why I chose median and not mean in the first place)
  13. (reposting this table of entries now that absolute deadline has passed) Table of entries for September 2019 ____________________________________________ __ order of entries in brackets __ L stands for late, number with L gives number of late days, then order of those entries __ CET __ EWP __ Forecaster _______________ CET __ EWP __ Forecaster 19.0 __200.0___ Lettucing gutted (2) _______ 14.2 __ 82.0 ___ JeffC (9) 16.5 __ 91.0 ___ syed2878 (35) ___________ 14.2 __ 67.0 ___ DiagonalRedLine (21) 16.3 __ ----- ___ Earthshine (49) ___________ 14.2 __ ----- ___ Jonathan F. (28) 15.9 __ 60.0 ___ Polar Gael (8) ____________ 14.2 __ 73.2 ___ 1989-2018 average 15.8 __ 34.2 ___ Roger J Smith (10) ________ 14.1 __ 67.0 ___ emmett garland (22) 15.5 __ 46.2 ___ CheesepuffScott (11) _______14.1 __ ----- ___ Beet (45) 15.2 __ 20.0 ___ Blast from the Past (L1-2) ___14.1 __ 88.0 ___ Stationary Front (52) 15.1 __ 47.9 ___ ChrisBell not the wxman (14) _14.1 __ ----- ___ Damianslaw (59) 15.0 __ 75.0 ___ EdStone (31) _____________ 14.0 __ 50.0 ___ East Lancs Rain (30) 15.0 __150.0___ stewfox (L3-1) _____________14.0 __ ----- ___ Quicksilver1989 (50) 14.9 __ ----- ___ dancerwithwings (20) _______ 14.0 __ 77.2 ___ 1981-2010 average 14.9 __ 49.0 ___ DAVID SNOW (42) ________ 13.9 __ 76.0 ___ virtualsphere (26) 14.8 __ 64.0 ___ stargazer (12) ____________ 13.9 __ 66.0 ___ Mulzy (54) 14.8 __ ----- ___ Mark Bayley (32) __________ 13.9 __ 95.0 ___ Don (55) 14.8 __ ----- ___ Matty007 (L1-1) ___________ 13.9 __ 69.0 ___ davehsug (57) 14.7 __103.8___ Kirkcaldy Weather (6) ______ 13.8 __ 69.8 ___ Feb1991Blizzard (33) 14.7 __ ----- ___ Relativistic (16) ____________13.8 __ 67.0 ___ weather-history (36) 14.7 __ ----- ___ Man with Beard (41) ________13.8 __ 85.0 ___ Daniel* (40) 14.6 __ 58.0 ___ bobd29 (7) _______________13.8 __ 80.0 ___ Born from the Void (47) 14.6 __ 92.0 ___ jonboy (25) _______________13.7 __ 85.0 ___ philglossop (15) 14.6 __ 98.0 ___ coldest winter (43) _________ 13.7 __ 77.0 ___ timmytour (34) 14.6 __ 85.0 ___ J10 (56) _________________ 13.6 __ 97.0 ___ I Remember Atlantic 252 (19) 14.5 __ 45.0 ___ Leo97t (13) ______________ 13.6 __ ----- ___ ProlongedSnowLover (23) 14.5 __ ----- ___ summer blizzard (24)________13.6 __ 95.0 ___ Norrance (46) 14.5 __ 80.0 ___ The PIT (37) ______________13.5 __ ----- ___ sundog (29) 14.5 __ 40.0 ___ Freeze (58) _______________13.4 __ ----- ___ Kentish Man (51) 14.4 __ 72.1 ___ Midlands Ice Age (5) ________13.2 __ 74.0 ___ weather26 (1) 14.4 __ ----- ___ snowray (18) ______________ 13.0 __108.0___brmbrmcar (27) 14.4 __ ----- ___ Summer Sun (38) ___________12.9 __ ----- ___ Walsall Wood Snow (44) 14.4 __ 85.0 ___ Reef (48) _________________12.9 __200.0___ Thundershine (53) 14.4 __ ----- ___ Duncan McAlister ( L1-4 ) ____ 12.8 __ 56.0 ___ Godber1 (39) 14.4 __ 90.0 ___ DR(S)NO _ (L2-1) __________12.4 __129.0___ Let It Snow! (4) 14.3 __ 68.0 ___ seaside60 (L1-3) ___________11.7 __156.0___ SteveB (26) 14.3 __ 77.0 ___ consensus forecasts _______ 14.2 __110.0___ nn2013 (3) ________________ 65 forecasts (59 on time, 4 are one day late, one each for two and three days late) __ consensus 14.3. ====================================================================== EWP entries in order 200 LG, Thun ..156 Ste .. 150 stew (+3d) .. 129 LIS .. 110 nn .. 108 brm .. 103.8 KW .. 98 cw .. 97 IRAtl .. 95 Norr, Don 92 jon .. 91 syed .. 90 DRS (+2d) .. 88 SF .. 85 phil, dan, Reef, J10 .. 82 Jeff .. 80 Pit, BFTV .. 77.2 89-18 .. 77 tim con .. 76 vir ... 75 EdS .. 74 wx26 .. 73.2 81-10 .. 72.1 MIA .. 69.8 Feb91 .. 69 dave .. 68 sea60 (+1d) .. 67 DRL, emm, w-h .. 66 .. mul 64 star .. 60 PG .. 58 bob .. 56 Godb .. 50 ELR .. 49 DSN .. 47.9 cbnot .. 46.2 CPS .. 45 Leo .. 40 Freeze 34.2 RJS .. 20 BFTP (+1d) __ 47 forecasts, 2 are one day late, one each at 2, 3 days late __ consensus is 77 mm.
  14. In before the absolute deadline which is now 55 minutes away ... contest closes at midnight 3rd.
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