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Roger J Smith

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Roger J Smith last won the day on July 4 2022

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    forecast research on a global scale, thus an interest in UK weather as part of a larger research program that concentrates mainly on severe weather in North America.

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  1. Following table posted in Feb CET contest ... ... data are for 31 days ending on date reported, e.g., 8 Jan 2016 refers to 9 Dec 2015 to 8 Jan 2016. ... *as only leap years can end on 29 Feb, 1872 (7.0) is record, but if 1779 was a leap year it would be 7.9 ending 29 Feb. __Warmest 31d intervals ending on every calendar date__ date __ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _APR _ MAY _ JUN _JUL _ AUG _ SEP _OCT _ NOV _ DEC _01 __ 2016 _1916_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_2006_1997_2023_2001_1994 ________9.5 __ 7.4 __ 7.9 __ 9.3 _11.9 _15.3 _18.1 _ 19.7 _18.9 _17.0 _13.1 _ 9.8 _02 __ 2016 _1796_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_2006_1997_2023_2005_1994 ________9.3 __ 7.3 __ 7.9 __ 9.3 _11.9_15.5 _18.1 _ 19.6 _18.9 _16.9 _13.1 __ 9.8 _03 __ 2016 _1796_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_2006_1997_2023_2005_1994 ________9.2 __ 7.2^__ 7.8 __ 9.4 _11.7 _15.4 _18.1 _ 19.6 _18.9 _16.8 _13.3 __ 9.8 _04 __ 2016 _1796_1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_1995_1997_2023_2005_1994 _________9.1 __ 7.2^__ 7.9 __ 9.6 _11.7 _15.4 _18.2^_19.6 _18.9 _16.6 _13.2 __ 9.8 _05 __2016 _1796,1834_1779_1957_2011_1833_1976_1995_1997_2023_2005_1994 _________9.1 __ 7.1^ __ 8.1 __ 9.9 _11.9 _15.3^_18.5 _19.6 _18.8 _16.5 _13.1 __ 9.6 _06 __2016_ 1990_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994 _________8.9 __ 7.1 __ 8.2 __ 9.9 _12.0 _15.4 _18.8 _19.6 _18.8 _16.3 _13.1 __ 9.4 _07 __ 2016 _1990_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994 _________8.7 __ 7.1^__ 8.2 __ 9.8 _12.1 _15.5 _19.0 _19.6 _18.8 _16.2 _12.9 __ 9.4 _08 __ 2016 _2002_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994 _________8.5 __ 7.2^__ 8.2 __ 9.7 _12.2 _15.5 _19.1 _19.5 _18.7 _16.0 _12.8 __ 9.3 _09 __ 2016 _2002_1779_1957_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2023_2005_1994 _________8.5 __ 7.4 __ 8.1 __ 9.6^_12.2^_15.6 _19.0 _19.4 _18.6 _15.8^_12.8 __ 9.2 _10 __ 2016 _2002_1779_2017_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_2022_2006_2005_1994 _________8.4 __ 7.6 __ 8.0 __ 9.6 _12.3 _15.7 _19.0^_19.3 _18.5 _15.8 _12.6 __ 9.1 _11 __ 2016 _2002_1998_2017_2011_1833_ 1976_1995_1947_2006_2005_1994 _________8.3 __ 7.8 __ 7.9 __ 9.5^_12.3 _15.7 _19.1^_19.4 _18.4 _15.7 _12.5 __ 9.2 _12 __ 2016 _2002_2019_2017_2011_1992_ 1976_1995_1947_2006_2022_1994 _________8.3 __ 8.0 __ 7.8^__ 9.5^_12.3 _15.5^_19.3 _19.4 _18.3 _15.5 _12.3 __ 9.2 _13 __ 2016 _2002_1961_2017_2011_1822_ 1976_1995_1947_1949_2022_1994 _________8.2 __ 8.0 __ 7.9^__ 9.5 _12.3 _ 15.7 _19.4 _19.4 _18.2 _15.5^_12.3 _ 9.3 _14 __ 2016 _2002_2019_2011_2011_1822_ 1976_1995_1947_1949_2022_1994 _________8.1^__ 7.9 __ 8.0^_ 9.6^_12.4 _ 15.9 _19.5 _19.4 _18.0 _15.2 _12.3 _ 9.0 _15 __ 1975 _2002_2019_1945_1893_1822_ 1976_2022_1947_1949_2022_1994 _________8.1 __ 7.8 __ 8.1 __ 9.8^_12.6 _16.1 _19.5 _19.5^_18.0 _15.2 _12.2 _ 8.7 _16 __ 1975 _2002_2019_1945_1893_1822_ 1976_1995^_1947_1949_2022_1994 _________8.1 __ 7.7 __ 8.2 __10.2 _12.8 _16.2 _19.6 _19.6 _17.9 _15.2 _12.1 _ 8.4 _17 __ 1975 _2002_2019_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1994 _________8.0 __ 7.7 __ 8.2 __10.3^_12.9 _ 16.2 _19.7 _19.7 _17.6^_15.1 _12.0 _ 8.4 _18 __ 1975 _2002,24_1990_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1994 _________7.9 __ 7.7 __ 8.3 __10.6 _13.1 _ 16.5 _19.8 _19.8 _17.5 _15.0 _11.9 _ 8.3 _19 __ 1975 _2024_1990_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1828 _________7.8 __ 8.1 __ 8.5 __10.7 _13.1 _ 16.8 _19.9 _19.9&_17.4 _14.9 _11.8 _8.5^ _ _20 __ 1975 _2024_1990_1945_1893_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1828 _________7.7^__ 8.3 __ 8.6 __11.0 _ 13.1 _ 17.2 _20.0 _19.9 _17.3 _14.8 _11.6 _8.5 _21 __ 1916 _2024_1990_1945_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1949_2022_1828 _________7.6 __ 8.3 __ 8.7 __11.0 _ 13.3 _ 17.4 _20.0 _20.0 _17.2 _14.6 _11.3 _8.6^ _22 __ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2016_1949_ 2022 _2015 _________7.7 __ 8.3 __ 8.7 __11.0 _ 13.6 _ 17.7 _20.1 _20.2 _17.0^_14.5 _11.1 _8.8 _23 __ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2016,23_1949_2022_2015 _________7.6 __ 8.2^__ 8.6 __11.2 _13.8 _ 17.7 _20.0 _20.3 _16.8^_14.2 _10.9 _ 9.0 _24 __ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2006,23_1949_2022_2015 _________7.6 __ 8.0 __ 8.6 __11,3 _14.0 _ 17.7 _19.8 _20.2 _16.7^_13.9^ _10.7 _ 9.2 _25___ 1916 _2024_1990_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2006_2001_2022_2015 _________7.6 __ 7.9 __ 8.5^__11.4 _14.2 _ 17.7 _19.7 _20.2_16.8^_13.8^_10.6 _ 9.3 _26 __ 1916 _2024_1957_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1921_1994_2015 _________7.6 __ 7.8 __ 8.7 __11.5 _14.5 _ 17.8 _19.6 _20.1 _16.8^_13.7 _10.4 _ 9.4 _27 __ 1916 _1869_1957_2011_1833_1846_ 1976_1995_2023_1921_1994_2015 _________7.6 __ 7.7 __ 8.8 __11.6 _14.5 _ 17.8 _19.5 _20.0 _16.9 _13.8 _10.4 _ 9.4 _28 __ 1916 _1779_1957_2011_1833_1846_ 2006_1995_2023_2001_1994_2015 _________7.7 __ 7.7 __ 8.9 __11.6 _14.6 _ 18.0 _19.7 _19.7 _16.9 _13.7 _10.3 _ 9.4 _29 __ 1916_1872* 1957_2011_1833_1846_ 2006_1995_2006,23_2001_1994_2015 _________7.8 __7.0* __9.0 __11.8 _14.7 _ 18.1 _19.8 _19.5_16.87_13.6 _10.2 _ 9.6 _30 __ 1916 _ xxxx _1957_2011_1833_1846_ 2006_1995_2023_2001_1994_2015 _________7.7 __-- -- __9.1 __11.9 _14.9 _ 18.1 _19.8 _19.3 _16.9 _13.4 _10.0 _ 9.7 _31 __ 1916 _xxxx _1957_xxxx_1833_xxxx_ 2006_1995_xxxx_2001_ xxxx_2015 _________7.6 __-- -- __9.2 __-- -- __15.1 _ -- -- _ 19.8 _ 19.1 _-- -- _13.2 _-- -- _ 9.6 ________________________ So, while there are only 12 years with the distinction of holding a warmest month, there are many years that have at least one warmest 31-day interval (or are tied in one decimal). Several years (incl 1846, 1976, 1990, 2006, 2011, 2015, 2022) produced two entirely separate ones, and 2006 also participates in a third near miss in mid-January of 2007. ^ years tied in one decimal (and a few near misses) 15 Dec - 14 Jan (2015-2016 _ 8.13) (1974-1975 8.08) 21 Dec - 20 Jan (1974-1975 _ 7.65) (1975-1976 7.48 ... stays 0.1 to 0.2 lower than 1915-1916 run for several days. ... ... ... Peak is 7.57 for 23 Dec to 22 Jan 1976 ... ... 1920-1921 also approaches but does not overtake 1915-1916 (peak 25 Dec 1920 - 24 Jan 1921 is 7.56). 4 Jan - 3 Feb 1796 (7.22) _ 1916 (7.17) 5 Jan - 4 Feb 1796 (7.14) _ 1834 (7.13) 6 Jan - 5 Feb 1796,1834 (7.10) _ 1846 (7.06) 8 Jan - 7 Feb 1990 (7.08) _ 2002 (7.06) 9 Jan - 8 Feb 2002 (7.18) _ 1990 (7.16) 24 Jan - 23 Feb 1903 (7.44) _ 2002 (7.40) both lost out to 8.18 2024 10 Feb - 12 Mar 2019 (7.81) _ 1998 (7.80). 1961 (7.77). 2007 (7.75) 11 Feb - 13 Mar 1961 (7.89) _ 2007, 2019 (7.85) 12 Feb - 14 Mar 2019 (8.01) _ 1961 (7.95) 23 Feb - 25 Mar 1990 (8.51) _ 1957 (8.50) 10 Mar - 9 Apr 1957 (9.60) _ 2017 (9.56) 12 Mar -11 Apr 2017 (9.50) _ 2011 (9.47) 13 Mar -12 Apr 2017 (9.49) _ 2011 (9.45) 15 Mar -14 Apr 2011 (9.60) _ 1803 (9.58) 16 Mar -15 Apr 1945 (9.84) _ 1803 (9.77) 18 Mar -17 Apr 1945 (10.30) _ 1803 (10.28) 09 Apr - 09 May 2011 (12.23) _ 2007 (12.15) _ after several days wit in 0.1, this was only one dec tie, next day was 0.02 diff (12.25-12.23) ... ... ... note also 1775 was close to level by end of 2011 run, but as it passed 2011, 1893 began a week-long run (1775 was 0.1 back for 14 Apr - 14 May ... ... and peaked at 12.64 for 17 Apr - 17 May (but 1833 was already up to 12.93) . 06 May - 05 June 1833 (15.32) _ 1947 (15.25) 13 May - 12 June 1992 (15.54) _ 1833 (15.52) _ 1822 (15.49) 04 June - 04 July 1846 (18.20) _ 1976 (18.18) 11 June - 11 July 1826 peaked 18.90 (rounded to 18.9 four intervals 9-12 Jun to 9-12 July) 27 June - 27 July 2006 (19.47) _ 1976 (19.45) _ also (not tied) 2018 _ 19.42 2 July - 1 Aug 1983 peaked at 19.44 (not a record, 2006 was 19.69 4 July - 3 Aug 1995 (19.34) _ 2006 (19.31) _ also (not tied) 2018 _ 19.22 15 July - 14 Aug 2022 (19.50) _ 1995 (19.49) _ note 2003 peaked 13,14 July - 12,13 Aug at 19.10, ... ... ... 1990 also peaked at 18.53 13 Jul - 12 Aug. (2019 10 Jul - 9 Aug 18.35) 16 July - 15 Aug 1995 (19.61) _ 2022 (19.55) _ also 1975 (18.96) peaked __ note& 20, 21 July - 19, 20 Aug 1911 peaked at 19.46 11 Aug - 10 Sep ... 1898 peaked at 17.61, and stayed about 0.8 below record pace to 0.3 below records by 23 Aug-22 Sep 18 Aug - 17 Sep _ 2023 (17.61) _ 1947 (17.60) 23 Aug - 22 Sep _ 2016 (17.02) _ 2023 (16.96) _ 1865 peaked two days earlier at 16.96 (not a record) 24 Aug - 23 Sep _ 2016,2023 (16.79) _ 1949 (16.76) 25 Aug - 24 Sep _ 1949, 2006 (16.70) _ 2023 (16.69) 26 Aug - 25 Sep _ 2006 (16.79) _ 2023 (16.76) 27 Aug - 26 Sep _ 2023 (16.80) _ 2006 (16.78) 30 Aug - 29 Sep _ 2006,23 (16.87) _ 1949 was 16.53, staying 0.1-0.3 below all records since it tied a record 25 Aug-24 Sep. 31 Aug - 30 Sep _ 2023 (16.89) _ 2006 (16.85) ... 2006 began to fall off 2023 pace but returned to record status later. 9 Sep - 9 Oct _ 2023 (15.81) _ 2006 (15.75) 13 Sep - 13 Oct _ 1949 (15.34) _ 2006 (15.30) 24 Sep - 24 Oct _ 1949 (13.94) _ 2001 (13.85) _ note 1921 was close to record pace for previous ten days, 0.2 to 0.4 below 1949. 25 Sep - 25 Oct _ 2001 (13.82) _ 1949 (13.75) Oct-Nov 2022 run wiped out runs for 2015 and 1978; 1938 was not a factor, only a 20-day spike in CET values 1-20 Nov. 18 Nov - 18 Dec 2015 (8.38) _ 1828 (8.37) 19 Nov - 19 Dec 1828 (8.47) _ 2015 (8.45) 21 Nov - 21 Dec 1828 (8.63) _ 2015 (8.58) _ 1934 (8.45) ___________________ If we did not have a calendar we would probably consider all of date 31-day averages equally valid. Our calendar is basically a sort of blend of lunar cycle and annual cycle, and has no real special significance (I figure 1828's obscure 3-day run Nov-Dec is just as valid as July 2006, or Feb 1779, but who knew it was hiding in the data? ... various other surprises were found in years like 1803).
  2. EWP update, was near 50 MM before yesterday's 7-10 MM likely addition, and 12z GFS looks to be adding 30 give or take, so it's staying in a range close to the 90 MM value for provisional scoring yet. (06z was closer to 95-100). CET is likely to peak around 8.5 by Friday, after that I see a rather chilly trend, if it were to average 6 C for last eight days, the 8.5 would fall to 7.9.
  3. In this warm spell, one daily CET mean record (12.1 14th, replaces 11.5 1805), and two daily min records (9.4 14th and 9.7th 15) replacing records set in 1884 and 1957. No daily max records, those are now up around 17 C or higher.
  4. EWP already near 50 MM and likely to add 40 at least, so will stay at 90 MM for provisional scoring (already posted). CET looks like a repeat of Feb's pattern of edging close to Mar record (9.2 1957) and falling back at end, but a colder trend at 12-16 days on GFS is never very reliable. More confident of a run towards 8.5 or even 9.0 in next ten days.
  5. Yes, it should be 2017 and not 2018 for list, and I edited details on the highest CET. I reviewed other data in table and didn't find any others needing work, hoping it's accurate now.
  6. I was reading online documents on CET site, and it looks like they will be pruning recent data on a regular basis, we may not actually be in the position we once thought in terms of no more revisions of posted data. We cannot be sure it will always look as it does now. But I do not see evidence of a desire to go way back and revise a lot of old data, perhaps I am missing a point.
  7. Well, as there were months well into the 18 range back then (July 1783 was 18.8), I don't know how much we could assume the 17.9 of 1779 was "really" 18.2 or 18.4, but the catch is that the data for CET before 1900 is generally west-London suburban in origin and would run a bit warmer than CET was then running (if it had been running) ... so perhaps the "modern conditions" and the shift in grid cancel out and it's a real 17.9? I hope the proposed new data base isn't going to up the level of revision of the old data base but if it appears non-homogeneous then I suppose we have to accept it. I can't see how you would revise it region to region when differentials are not always the same from one setup to another. Could be a good opportunity to retire from this pursuit, my age is very suggestive of closing down the shop anyway. I suspect April 1775 and February 1779 could be getting shoved off the ship let's see if that's valid or not.
  8. I just visited CET download site and saw a new notice about yet another revision of CET data scheduled for release later this month. Who knows what we will be dealing with for a data base after that ... but using v2.0.1.0 for now ... (and realizing Feb is shorter than March but taking an average of the two means) ... a lot of scorchers (but also 1903, 1961, 1998 etc) follow warmth in Feb-Mar ... Warmest Feb-Mar couplets on record ... all cases of average 6.7 + Rank ___ Year ___ FEB _ MAR ____ avg ______ warmest summer CET avg (graphical format) _ 01 ____ 1779 ___ 7.9 __ 7.9 ____ 7.9 __________ 17.9 July _ 02 ____ 1990 ___ 7.3 __ 8.3 ____ 7.8 __________18.0 Aug _t03 ____1961 ___ 6.9 __ 8.2 ____ 7.55 __________________ 15.4 Aug _t03 ____1997 ___ 6.7 __ 8.4 ____ 7.55 ______ 19.0 Aug _t05 ____1945 ___ 7.1 __ 7.9 ____ 7.5 _____________ 16.7 July _t05 ____1998 ___ 7.2 __ 7.8 ____ 7.5 _______________ 16.0 Aug _t05 ____2017 ___ 6.2 __ 8.8 ____ 7.5 ____________16.9 July _t08 ____1750 ___ 6.7 __ 8.2 ____ 7.45 ___________17.2 July _t08 ____2022 ___ 6.9 __ 8.0 ____ 7.45 ______ 18.7 Aug (and extremes July) _ 10 ____ 2019 ___ 6.9 __ 7.9 ____ 7.4 ___________ 17.6 July _ 11 ____ 2002 ___ 7.0 __ 7.6 ____ 7.3 ____________ 17.0 Aug _t12 ____1734 ___ 6.4 __ 8.1 ____ 7.25 ______________16.2 July & Aug _t12 ____1957 ___ 5.3 __ 9.2 ____ 7.25 ______________16.3 July _t14 ____1794 ___ 7.2 __ 7.0 ____ 7.1 __________18.1 July _t14 ____1903 ___ 7.1 __ 7.1 ____ 7.1 __________________ 15.3 July _t14 ____1938 ___ 5.1 __ 9.1 ____ 7.1 _______________16.3 Aug _ 17 ____ 1822 ___ 6.3 __ 7.8 ____ 7.05 ___________17.1 June _ 18 ____ 2014 ___ 6.3 __ 7.7 ____ 7.0 __________ 17.8 July _ 19 ____ 1815 ___ 6.5 __ 7.3 ____ 6.9 __________________ 15.3 Aug _t20 ____ 1872 ___ 6.9 __ 6.8 ____ 6.85 ___________17.1 July _t20 ____ 2000 ___ 6.2 __ 7.5 ____ 6.85 ____________16.7 Aug _t20 ____ 2011 ___ 6.5 __ 6.8 ____ 6.85 _________________15.5 Aug _t23 ____ 1989 ___ 6.0 __ 7.5 ____ 6.75 ________18.1 July _t23 ____ 2023 ___ 6.5 __ 7.0 ____ 6.75 ___________17.0 June, Sep _ 25 ____ 1871 ___ 6.1 __ 7.3 ____ 6.7 ____________17.2 Aug _t26 ____ 2007 ___ 6.0 __ 7.3 ____ 6.65 ________________ 15.5 Aug _t26 ____ 2020 ___ 6.5 __ 6.8 ____ 6.65 __________17.7 Aug (1920 avg 6.6, 14.4 June, a very poor summer; 1912 also avg 6.3) also fitting pattern before 1930 ... (1926 was 6.8, 6.3 (6.55) and _____________________ 17.1 July) (1868 was 6.3, 6.8 (6.55) and ______________ 18.2 July) (1859 was 5.7, 7.3 (6.5) and _______________ 18.3 July) (1846 was 6.4, 6.1 (6.25) and ______________ 18.2 June) (1826 was 6.4, 6.3 (6.35) and _______________17.9 July, also 19.5 late June-late July) ... 1869 was 7.5, 3.8, an exception to rule most mild Febs are followed by at least a mild-average march. (17.3 July) Not all hot summers are preceded by warm Febs into march, for example 1747, 1783, 1808, 1947, 1975, 1976, 1979, 1955, 1983, 1995 (only Feb was mild), 2006, 2013 and 2018. But it does seem like a loaded deck for summer warm spells, looking at list above. In cooler climate before 1900, trend is similar from a distribution perspective (mild Feb-mar back before 1900 often closer to 6.5). 1948 was near average in Feb (4.7) and mild in march (8.3), and avg was 6.5 ... summer generally cool except for 3-4 days of scorching heat at end of July.
  9. EWP scoring if result is 90 mm (will update if a different outcome is predicted) In table below, first rank is current contest rank, second rank was rank for winter season (results after Feb). Same logic applies at end of row to average error ranks. Everyone participating so far is given "consensus + 5 mm" errors for months they do not enter. In this case, consensus+5 is 12+5 = 17. Also in your scoring line, your forecast is followed by a rank based on provisional of 90 mm. Ties on either side are ranked high, low assuming actual outcome of 90.1 (e.g. applied to 95, 85) but most table math is easier to adjust from 90.0. This rank is your scoring level before late penalties. As you may already know, late forecasts are docked 0.30 points per late day (indicated in table below by ^ symbol). Identical forecasts are scored one-half scoring interval lower for each, so if you're in rank seven but identical forecast to rank six, your scoring level is actually 6.5 not 7 (etc for 3+ duplicates). Otherwise with 49 forecasts the scoring interval is 0.20 (10.00 to 0.40) allowing for a downward adjustment for wrong sign errors and range errors. (It is very similar to CET scoring except instead of getting extra points for accuracy, you lose extra points for inaccuracy, but the math works out similar). Ranks ___ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Mar _TOTAL _______ Mar _ Avg now (Feb/win)_fcst (rank)_FORECASTER ________EWP scoring (pts) __error__ avg 4mo (Ranks, now and after Feb) _01 _ 02 ___ 90.0 (03)^__ Jeff C __________________9.50^__32.89 _____ 0.0 __ 31.15 mm _ 4_ (8) _02 _ 03 ___ 88.0 (06) __ summer18 ____________ 9.00 __ 32.22 _____ 2.0 __ 27.30 mm _ 2 _ (2) _03 _ 05 ___ 91.6 (05) __ Weather26 ____________ 9.20 __ 31.33 _____ 1.6 __ 35.55 mm _11 _ (16) _04 _ 04 ___ 85.0 (17) __ J 10 ____________________ 6.80 __ 29.43 _____ 5.0 __ 31.30 mm _ 5 _ (6) _05 _ 13 ___ 87.5 (09) __ snowray _______________ 8.40 __ 27.94 _____ 2.5 __ 33.90 mm _ 9 _ (12) _06 _ 16 ___ 88.0 (08)^__stewfox _______________ 8.50^__27.29 _____ 2.0 __ 30.10 mm _ 3 _ (4) _07 _ 09 ___ 81.0 (21) __ Feb1991blizzard _______5.97 __ 26.83 _____ 9.0 __ 33.65 mm _t7 _ (9) _08 _ 17 ___ 94.0 (10) __ Emmett Garland _______8.20 __ 26.69 _____ 4.0 __ 39.40 mm_ 17 _ (23) _09 _ 23 ___ 92.0 (11) __Mr Maunder ____________ 8.36 ___24.53 _____ 2.0 __ 42.90 mm_ 26 _ (33) _10 _ 07 ___ 72.0 (33) __ Frigid __________________ 3.52 __ 24.45 _____18.0 __ 26.90 mm _ 1_ (1) _11 _ 01 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ noname_weather _____ --- --- __ 24.41 ____(17.0) __ 31.40 mm _ 6 _ (3) _12 _ 08 ___ 72.0 (34) __ Don ____________________3.42 __ 24.34 _____18.0 __ 34.90 mm _10 _ (7) t13 _ 06 ___ 63.0 (41) __ godber 1 _______________1.84 __ 23.84 _____27.0 __ 36.65 mm _12 _ (5) t13 _ 20 ___ 82.0 (19) __ methuselah ____________6.37 __ 23.84 _____ 8.0 __ 42.55 mm _ 24 _ (28) (14.4)_(6.6)_ 67.3 (38.7)___1994-2023 average___2.36 __ 23.69 _____22.7 __39.05 mm _16.5_(12.2) _15 _ 14 ___ 76.5 (29) __Metwatch ______________ 4.35 __ 23.49 _____13.5 __ 37.28 mm_ 13_ (13) _16 _ 19 ___ 78.0 (25)__I remember Atlantic252__5.25 __23.37 _____12.0 __ 39.55 mm_ 18_ (18) _17 _ 30 ___ 90.0 (01) __ Let It Snow! ____________10.00__ 23.18 _____ 0.0 __ 37.40 mm_ 14_ (t20) _18 _ 11 ___ 68.0 (38) __ February1978 __________2.50 __ 23.17 _____22.0 __ 38.15 mm_ 15 _ (11) (18.9)(11.4)__65.4 (40.2)__1991-2020 average__2.06 __ 22.15 _____ 24.6 __ 41.00 mm_ 19.9 _(14.9) _19 _ 21 ___ 77.0 (26) __ dancerwithwings _______4.95 __ 22.11 _____13.0 __ 46.90 mm_ t39_ (36) _20 _ 25 ___ 95.1 (18) __ Polar Gael _____________ 6.60 __ 21.92 _____ 5.1 __ 42.97 mm _ 25 _ (31) _21 _ 37 ___ 89.0 (04) __ Midlands Ice Age _______9.40 __ 21.63 _____ 1.0 __ 44.90 mm_ 35_(41) (21.1)(18.6) __71.5 (34.3) _1981-2010 average__3.28 __ 21.62 _____18.5 __ 42.80 mm _24.8_(22.8) (21.2)(21.9) _78.0 (24) ____ Consensus___________ 5.35 __ 21.57 _____12.0 __ 44.40 mm_30.5_(30.5) _22 _ 22 ___ 77.0 (27) __ Reef ____________________ 4.85 __ 21.22 _____13.0 __ 43.80 mm_t28 _ (29) _23 _ 10 ___129.0 (48) __ DR(S)NO _______________0.38 __ 21.16 _____39.0 __ 44.65 mm_ 34 _ (15) _24 _ 18 ___ 70.0 (36) __ jonboy _________________ 2.92 __ 21.14 _____20.0 __ 45.05 mm_ 36 _(t26) _25 _ 31 ___ 95.0 (15) __ moorlander ____________7.40 __ 20.53 _____ 5.0 __ 40.15 mm_ 19 _ (24) _26 _ 12 ___ 53.0 (47) __ WYorksWeather _______ 0.54 __ 20.12 _____37.0 __ 45.20 mm_ 17 _ (17) _27 _ 35 ___ 94.0 (12)^__SteveB _________________ 7.70^__19.88 _____ 4.0 __ 49.40 mm_ 47 _ (58.) _28 _ 24 ___104.0 (30)__ virtualsphere ___________4.15 __ 19.87 _____14.0 __ 41.05 mm _t20 _ (22) _29 _ 44 ___ 90.0 (02) __ weatherforducks _______9.90 ___19.46 _____ 0.0 __ 44.15 mm_ 32 _ (38) _30 _ 40 ___ 94.0 (11) __ Addicks Fan 1981 _______8.10 __ 19.13 _____ 4.0 __ 41.05 mm _t20_ (t26) _31 _ 15 ___ --- --- ( --- ) __chilly milly _____________ --- ---__ 18.85 ____ (17.0)__ 38.65 mm_ 16_ (14) _32 _ 43 ___ 88.0 (07)^__seaside60 _______________8.60^__18.23 _____ 2.0 __ 48.40 mm _t41_ (t54) _33 _ 33 ___ 78.8 (23) __ Roger J Smith ___________ 5.55 __ 18.17 _____11.2 __ 43.50 mm_ 30 _ (29) _34 _ 38 ___ 82.0 (20) __ rwtwm __________________6.27 __ 17.83 _____ 8.0 ___ 48.65 mm_ 44 _ (52) _35 _ 32 ___ 77.0 (28) __ Mulzy ___________________4.75 __ 17.59 _____13.0 __ 49.15 mm_ 46 _ (t46) _36 _ 28 ___ 74.0 (31) ___ summer blizzard ______ 3.92 __ 17.38 _____16.0 __ 50.40 mm_t51 _ (51) _37 _ 45 ___ 95.0 (16) __ SLEETY _________________ 7.30 ___16.58 _____ 5.0 __ 33.65 mm _ t7 _ (10) _38 _ 47 ___ 95.0 (14) __ Stationary Front ________ 7.50 ___16.45 _____ 5.0 __ 52.90 mm_ 59 _ (61) _39 _ 27 ___ 60.0 (43) __ The PIT _________________ 1.73 ___15.78 _____30.0 __ 53.65 mm_ 62_ (t48) _40 _ 42 ___ 78.0 (24) __summer8906 ____________5.35 ___15.23 _____12.0 __ 46.90 mm_ 39 _ (37) _41 _ 34 ___ 70.0 (37)^__davehsug _______________2.52^__ 14.82 _____20.0 __ 50.40 mm_t51 _ (43) (41.3)(25.9)_65.5 (37.7) __average of all data ____ 3.34 __ 14.63 _____24.5 __ 49.50 mm_ 47.3_ (34.8) _42 _ 26 ___--- --- (---) __KirkcaldyWeather ________--- ---___14.22 ____(17.0)__ 41.55 mm _22 _ (19) _43 _ 29 ___ --- --- (---) __ ScottD __________________ --- ---__ 13.42 ____(17.0) __ 43.80 mm _ 31_ (25) _44 _ 36 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover ___ --- --- __12.30 ____(17.0)__ 41.65 mm _23_ (t20) _45 _ 48 ___ 72.5 (32) __ Bobd29 _________________ 3.72 ___12.08 _____17.5 __ 56.38 mm _66 _ (65) _46 _ 41 ___ 60.0 (44) __ daniel* __________________ 1.63 ___11.45 _____30.0 __ 57.40 mm_ 67 _ (60) _47 _ 39 __ -- -- ( --- ) __ Somerset girl _____________ --- ---__ 11.18 _____(17.0)__ 53.15 mm_ 61 _ (59) _48 _ 50 ___ 60.0 (41) __ Leo97t ___________________1.83 ___ 9.64 _____30.0 __ 62.40 mm _ 69 _ (67) _49 _ 46 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ____________________--- --- ___ 9.14 ____(17.0) __ 44.65 mm _ 33 _ (28) _50 _ 49 ___ --- --- (---) __ John88b ________________--- --- ___ 8.29 ____(17.0) __ 50.40 mm_ t51 _ (t48) _51 _ 72 ___ 95.0 (13) __ syed2878 ________________ 7.60 ___ 8.09 _____ 5.0 ___ 71.15 mm_ 74 _ (73) _52 _ 57 ___ 67.0 (39) __ Weather Observer _______2.30 ___ 7.88 _____23.0 __ 62.55 mm _ 70 _ (69) _53 _ 51 ___ --- --- (---) __ jmp223 __________________--- --- ___ 7.08 ____(17.0) __ 46.40 mm_ 38 _ (32) _54 _ 52 __ --- --- (---) __ Matt Stoke ______________ --- --- ___ 6.30 ____(17.0) __ 46.90 mm_t39 _ (34) _55 _ 53 ___ 43.0 (49) __ summer shower _________0.00 ___ 6.25 _____47.0 __ 70.35 mm_ 73 _ (70) _56 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) ________ -- -- ___ 6.18 _____(17.0) __ 45.40 mm_ 37_ (30) _57 _ 73 __ 81.0 (22)^^__Wade ___________________5.27^^__5.67 _____ 9.0 ___ 66.90 mm_ 71 _ (66) _58 _ 55 ___ --- --- (---) __ Shaunado _______________--- --- ___ 5.64 _____(17.0) __ 55.83 mm_ 65 _ (64) _59 _ 56 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ____________ -- -- ___ 5.60 _____(17.0) __ 48.55 mm_ 43 _ (40) _60 _ 58 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ____________ -- -- ___ 5.56 _____(17.0) __ 48.40 mm_t41 _ (39) _61 _ 59 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _______________ -- -- ___ 5.45 _____(17.0) __ 54.15 mm _ 63 _ (62) _62 _ 64 __ 66.0 (40) __shillitocettwo ______________2.10 ___ 5.44 _____24.0 ___ 67.80 mm _72 _ (71) _63 _ 60 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ____________ -- -- ___ 4.88 _____(17.0) __ 49.80 mm_ 48_ (44) _64 _ 61 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ____________ -- -- ___ 4.34 _____(17.0) __ 50.40 mm_t51_(t49) _65 _ 62 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 __________________ -- -- ___ 3.99 _____(17.0) __ 49.90 mm_ 49_(45) _66 _ 63 __ --- --- (---) __ snowblind ________________ -- -- ___ 3.67 _____(17.0) __ 50.15 mm _ 50_ (t46) _67 _ 65 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow ________ -- -- ___ 3.30 _____ (17.0) __ 51.65 mm_ 55 _ (53) _68 _ 66 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ______________ -- -- ___ 2.90 ____ (17.0) __ 52.15 mm_t56_ (t54) _69 _ 70 __ 55.0 (45) __ Neil N ____________________ 0.95 ___ 2.79 _____ 35.0 __ 73.40 mm_ 75 _ (72) _70 _(---) __110.0 (35)^^ _B87 _____________________ 2.52^^_2.52 _____ 20.0 ___ 49.13 mm_ 45 _ (---) _ first entry t71 _t67 __ --- --- (---) ___gazse9 ( -- ) _______________ -- -- ___ 2.28 ____ (17.0) __ 52.15 mm_t56_ (t54) t71 _t67 __ --- --- (---) __ catbrainz __________________-- -- ___ 2.28 ____ (17.0) __ 52.15 mm_ t56_ (t54) _73 _ 69 __ --- --- (---) __ Norrance _________________ -- -- ___ 2.04 _____(17.0) __ 60.90 mm_ 68 _ (68) _74 _ 71 __ --- --- (---) __ baddie ____________________--- ---___ 0.76 ____ (17.0)__ 54.83 mm_ 64_ (63) _75 _ --- __ 54.0 (46) __ sunny_vale ________________0.44^___0.44 ____ 36.0 ___ 53.13 mm_ 60_ (---) _ first entry <<< TABLE WILL BE UPDATED AS REQUIRED >>> but a result above 100 mm will leave most scores similar to above, 3 forecasts above 100 mm will move up about ten ranks apiece, if it does make it to 100 mm. note: Ranks for normals and consensus are in decimal form, indicating where they are located relative to integer ranks of contest entrants. Log of results (Feb report and Dec-Jan, for cross-reference to above) FEB _01 _ 01 ___ 82.0 (19) __ noname_weather _____ 6.76__ 24.41 _____ 69.1 __ 36.20 mm _ 3 _ (1) _02 _ 02 ___ 85.0 (15) __ Jeff C ( 8 ) ______________ 7.48 __ 23.39 ____ 66.1 __ 41.53 mm _ 8_ (9) _03 _ 03 ___122.0 (04) __ summer18 ____________9.46 __ 23.22 _____29.1 __ 35.73 mm _ 2 _ (18.) _04 _ 04 ___ 75.0 (31) __ J 10 ____________________ 4.84__ 22.63 _____ 76.1 __ 40.07 mm _ 6 _ (3) _05 _ 05 ___ 88.0 (13) __ Weather26 ____________ 7.84 __ 22.13 _____ 63.1 __ 46.87 mm_ 16 _ (17) _06 _ 06 ___ 82.0 (20) __ godber 1 _______________6.66 __ 22.00 _____ 69.1 __ 39.87 mm _ 5 _ (4) (6.6) _(6.6)_ 75.0 (28) ____1994-2023 average ___ 5.14 __ 21.33 _____76.1 __ 44.50 mm _12.2_(8.9) _07 _ 07 ___130.0 (02)__ Frigid ___________________9.82 __ 20.93 _____21.1 __ 29.87 mm _ 1_ (t10) _08 _ 08 ___ 70.0 (35) __ Don ____________________ 3.83 __ 20.92 _____ 81.1 __ 40.53 mm _ 7 _(2) _09 _ 09 ___ 78.0 (27) __ Feb1991blizzard _______ 5.32 __ 20.86 _____ 73.1 __ 41.87 mm _ 9_ (6) _10 _ 10 ___ 80.0 (24) __ DR(S)NO ( 43 ) __________6.10 __ 20.78 _____ 71.1 __ 46.53 mm_ 15 _ (t10) _11 _ 11 ___ 94.0 (08) __ February1978 __________8.74 __ 20.67 _____ 57.1 __ 43.53 mm_ 11 _ (14) (11.4)(11.4)__72.4 (33.4) __1991-2020 average __4.31 __20.09 _____ 78.7 __ 46.47 mm_ 14.9 _ (19.1) _12 _ 12 ___ 60.0 (40) __ WYorksWeather _______ 2.92 __ 19.58 _____ 91.1 __ 47.93 mm _ 17 _ (7) _13 _ 13 ___ 73.0 (32) __ snowray _______________ 4.42 __ 19.54 _____ 78.1 __ 44.37 mm _ 12 _ (8.) _14 _ 14 ___105.0 (06) __Metwatch ______________9.10 __ 19.14 _____ 46.1 __ 45.20 mm_ 13_ (29) _15 _ 15 ___ 92.0 (10) __ chilly milly ______________8.46 __ 18.85 _____59.1 __ 45.87 mm_ 14_ (19) _16 _ 16 ___166.0 (01) __ stewfox ______________10.00 __ 18.79 _____14.9 __ 39.47 mm_ 4 _ (t43) _17 _ 17 ___ 91.0 (12) __ Emmett Garland ________8.02 __ 18.49 _____ 60.1 __ 51.20 mm_ 23 _ (t33) _18 _ 18 ___ 83.0 (18) __ jonboy __________________6.94 __ 18.22 _____ 68.1 __ 53.40 mm_ t26 _ (31) (18.6)( 18.6)__ 66.5 (37) __1981-2010 average ___3.48 __ 18.34 _____ 84.6 __ 50.90 mm _22.8_ (9.9) _19 _ 19 ___ 92.0 (09)__I remember Atlantic252 __8.56 __18.12 _____ 59.1 __ 48.73 mm_ 18_ (27) _20 _ 20 ___ 65.0 (38) __ methuselah _____________3.29 __ 17.47 _____ 86.1 __ 54.07 mm _ 28 _ (16) _21 _ 21 ___ 80.0 (21) __ dancerwithwings ________6.40 __ 17.16 _____ 71.1 __ 58.20 mm_ 36 _ (t43) (21.9)(21.9) _75.0 (28) ____ Consensus___________ 5.14 __ 16.22 _____ 76.1 __ 55.20 mm_30.5_(29) _22 _ 22 ___ 72.0 (34) __ Reef ____________________ 4.05 __ 16.37 _____ 79.1 __ 54.07 mm_ 29 _ (22) _23 _ 23 ___ 92.0 (11) __Mr Maunder ____________ 8.36 __ 16.17 _____ 59.1 __ 56.53 mm_ 33 _ (t50) _24 _ 24 ___ 52.0 (48) __ virtualsphere ___________ 1.48 __ 15.72 _____ 99.1 __ 50.07 mm _ 22 _ (5) _25 _ 25 ___ 84.0 (17) __ Polar Gael ______________ 7.12 __ 15.32 _____ 67.1 __ 55.60 mm _ 31 _ (39) (25.9)(25.9)_65.5 (37.7) __average of all data ____ 3.34 __ 14.63 _____ 85.6 __ 57.80 mm_ 34.8 _ (27.8) _26 _ 26 ___100.8 (06) __ KirkcaldyWeather ______8.92 ___14.22 _____50.3 __ 49.73 mm _19 _ (38) _27 _ 27 ___ 50.0 (50) __ The PIT _________________ 1.12 __ 14.05 _____101.1 __ 61.53 mm_t48_ (t23) _28 _ 28 ___ 59.0 (44) ___ summer blizzard ______ 2.28 __ 13,46 _____ 92.1 __ 61.87 mm_ 51 _ (t33) _29 _ 29 ___ 79.0 (26) __ ScottD __________________ 5.50 __ 13.42 _____ 72.1 __ 52.73 mm _ 25_ (25) _30 _ 30 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ Let It Snow! _______________ --- __ 13.18 _____ (81.1)__ 49.87 mm_ t20_ (t10) _31 _ 31 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ moorlander _______________ --- __ 13.13 _____(81.1)___ 51.87 mm_ 24 _ (15) _32 _ 32 ___ 60.0 (41) __ Mulzy (L1-13) ____________2.82 __ 12.84 _____91.1 __ 61.20 mm_ t46 _ (32) _33 _ 33 ___125.8 (03)__ Roger J Smith ___________ 9.64 __ 12.62 _____25.3 __ 54.27 mm_ 29 _ (63) _34 _ 34 ___ 75.0 (30) __ davehsug _______________ 4.94 __ 12.30 _____ 76.1 __ 60.53 mm_ 43 _ (t47) _35 _ 35 ___ 86.0 (14) __ SteveB __________________ 7.66 __ 12.18 _____ 65.1 __ 64.53 mm_ 58 _ (t58.) _36 _ 36 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ prolongedSnowLover _____ --- __ 12.30 _____(81.1)__ 49.87 mm_t20_ (t10) _37_ 37 ___ 73.0 (33) __ Midlands Ice Age _________4.32 __ 12.23 _____ 78.1 __ 59.53 mm_ 41_(40) _38 _ 38 ___ 51.0 (49) __ rwtwm ___________________1.30 __ 11.56 _____100.1 __ 62.20 mm_ 52 _ (26) _39 _ 39 __ 85.0 (16) __ Somerset girl _____________ 7.40 __ 11.18 _____ 66.1 __ 64.87 mm_ 59 _ (t58.) _40 _ 40 ___ -- -- ( --- ) __ Addicks Fan 1981 __________ --- __ 11.03 _____(81.1) __ 53.40 mm _t26_ (20) _41 _ 41 ___ 65.0 (39) __ daniel* ___________________ 3.29 ___ 9.82 _____ 86.1 __ 66.53 mm_ 60 _ (53) _42 _ 42 ___ 66.5 (37) __summer8906 ______________3.48 ___ 9.88 _____ 84.6 __ 58.53 mm_ 37 _ (30) _43 _ 43 ___ 56.0 (45) __ seaside60 ________________ 2.02 ___ 9.63 _____ 95.1 __ 63.87 mm _t54 _ (37) _44 _ 44 __ 80.0 (25) __ weatherforducks __________5.70 ___ 9.56 _____ 71.1 __ 58.87 mm_ 38 _ (t47) _45 _ 45 __121.0 (05) __ SLEETY ___________________ 9.28 ___ 9.28 ______30.1 __ 43.20 mm_ 10_ (---) _46 _ 46 ___ --- --- (---) __ Tillys ________________________ --- ___ 9.14 ____ (81.1) __53.87 mm _ 28 _ (21) _47 _ 47 ___ 75.0 (29) __ Stationary Front ( 51 ) _____5.04 ___ 8.95 _____ 76.1 __ 68.87 mm_ 61 _ (60) _48 _ 48 ___ 59.6 (42) __ Bobd29 ____________________2.56 ___ 8.36 _____ 91.5 __ 69.33 mm _65 _ (31) _49 _ 49 ___ --- --- (---) __ John88b ____________________ --- ___ 8.29 _____ (81.1) __ 61.53 mm_ t48 _ (t43) _50 _ 50 ___ 80.0 (23) __ Leo97t _____________________6.20 ___ 7.81 _____ 71.1 __ 73.20 mm _ 67 _ (65) _51 _ 51 ___ --- --- (--- __ jmp223 ______________________ --- ___ 7.08 _____ (81.1) __ 56.20 mm _32 _ (28 ) _52 _ 52 __ 80.0 (22) __ Matt Stoke ________________ 6.30 ___ 6.30 _____ 71.1 __ 56.87 mm_ 34 _ (---) _53 _ 53 ___ 40.0 (56) __ summer shower ___________0.00 ___ 6.25 _____111.1 __ 78.13 mm_ 70 _ (57) _54 _ 54 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) __________ -- -- ___ 6.18 _____(81.1) __ 54.87 mm _ 30_ (t23) _55 _ 55 ___ 75.0 (28) __ Shaunado _________________ 5.14 ___ 5.64 _____ 76.1 __ 68.77 mm_ 64 _ (61) _56 _ 56 ___ --- --- (---)__ summer of 95 ______________ -- -- ___ 5.60 _____(81.1) __59.07 mm_ 40 _ (36) _57 _ 57 ___ 45.0 (53) __ Weather Observer ________ 0.58 ___ 5.58 _____106.1 __ 75.87 mm _ 69 _ (55) _58 _ 58 ___ --- --- (---) __ Rob79812010 ______________ -- -- ___ 5.56 _____(81.1) __ 58.87 mm _ 39 _ (35) _59 _ 59 ___ --- --- (---) __ Earthshine _________________ -- -- ___ 5.45 _____(81.1) __ 66.53 mm _ 62 _ (56) _60 _ 60 ___ --- --- (---) __EastLancsRain ______________ -- -- ___ 4.88 _____(81.1) __ 60.73 mm_ 44_(41) _61 _ 61 ___ --- --- (---) __harveyslugger ______________ -- -- ___ 4.34 _____(81.1) __ 61.53 mm_t49_(t43) _62 _ 62 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 ____________________ -- -- ___ 3.99 _____(81.1) __ 60.87 mm_ 45_(42) _63 _ 63 __ 67.0 (36) __ snowblind __________________ 3.67 ___ 3.67 _____ 84.1 __ 61.20 mm _ t46_ (---) _64 _ 64 __ 49.0 (51) __shillitocettwo ________________0.94 ___ 3.34 _____102.1 __ 82.40 mm _71 _ (64) _65 _ 65 __ --- --- (---) __sukayuonsensnow __________ -- -- ___ 3.30 _____ (81.1) __ 63.20 mm_ 53 _ (49) _66 _ 66 __ --- --- (---) __ Climate Man ________________ -- -- ___ 2.90 _____ (81.1) __ 63.87 mm_t54_ (t50) t67 _t67 __ --- --- (--) ___gazse9 ( -- ) __________________ -- -- ___ 2.28 _____ (81.1) __ 63.87 mm_t54_ (t50) t67 _t67 __ 59.0 (43) __ catbrainz ___________________ 2.28 ___ 2.28 _____ 92.1 __ 63.87 mm_ t54_ (---) _69 _ 69 __ 55.0 (47) __ Norrance ___________________ 1.74 ___ 2.04 _____ 96.1 __ 75.53 mm_ 68 _ (62) _70 _ 70 __ 55.0 (46) __ Neil N ______________________ 1.84 ___ 1.84 _____ 96.1 __ 85.87 mm_ 72 _ (66) _71 _ 71 __ 48.3 (52) __ baddie ______________________0.76 ___ 0.76 _____102.8 __ 67.43 mm_ 63_ (---) _72 _ 72 __ 40.0 (55) __ syed2878 ___________________ 0.30 ___ 0.49 _____111.1 __ 93.20 mm_ 73 _ (67) _73 _ 73 __ 40.0 (54) __ Wade _______________________ 0.40 ___ 0.40 _____111.1 __ 86.20 mm_ 66 _ (---) _01 _ 08 ___100.0 (07) __ J 10 ( 54 ) __________________ 9.12_8.67__17.79 ____2.8_41.3__22.05 mm _ 3_ (8.) _02 _ 04 ___ 90.0 (13) __ noname_weather ( 47 ) ____ 8.22_9.43__17.65 ___ 7.2_32.3__19.75 mm _ 1_ (4) _03 _ 03 ___ 88.0 (17) __ Don ( 41 ) __________________ 7.47_9.62__17.09 ___ 9.2_31.3__20.25 mm _ 2 _(3) _04 _ 11 ___103.6 (10) __ WYorksWeather ( 30 ) _____ 8.56_8.10__16.66 ___ 6.4_46.3__26.35 mm _ 7_ (11) (4.7) _(17.6)_ 94.8 (5.2) ___ 1994-2023 average _____ 9.33_6.86__16.19 ___ 2.4_55.0__28.70 mm _9.1_(17.6) _05 _ 14 ___ 90.0 (11) __ Jeff C ( 8 ) ___________________8.38_7.53 __15.91 ___ 7.2_51.3__29.25 mm _ 9_(t14) (5.4)(19.1) __94.2 (5.8) ___1991-2020 average _______9.23_6.55__15.78____ 3.0_57.7__30.35 mm_ 9.3_ (19.1) _06 _ 09 ____ 87.0 (19) __ Feb1991blizzard ( 37 ) ____ 7.06_8.48__ 15.54___10.2_42.3__26.25 mm _ 6_ (9) _07 _ 06 ___ 84.0 (23) __ godber 1 (L1-12) ____________6.20^9.14__15.34 ___13.2_37.3__25.25 mm _ 4_ (t5) _08 _ 07 ___ 82.0 (24) __ snowray ( 24 ) ______________ 6.26_8.86__15.12___ 15.2_39.8__27.50 mm _ 8_ (7) (8.7)(22.4)__ 93.0 (7.5)____1981-2010 average ______ 8.96_5.90__14.86 ___ 4.2_63.9__34.05 mm _9.9_ (22.4) _09 _ 20 ___ 90.0 (12) __ DR(S)NO ( 43 ) ______________ 8.30_6.38__14.68 ___ 7.2_61.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (20) _10 _ 30 ___ 96.0 (02) __ Weather26 ( 9 ) _____________ 9.92_4.37__14.29 ___ 1.2_76.3__38.75 mm_ 17_ (30) _11 _ 01 ___123.0 (37) __ virtualsphere ( 20 ) ________ 4.24_10.00_14.24 ___ 25.8_25.3__25.55 mm _ 5 _(1) _12 _ 27 ___100.0 (06) __ methuselah (12.5) _________ 9.20_4.98__14.18 ___ 2.8_73.3__38.05 mm _16_ (t27) _13 _ 28 ___102.0 (08) __ summer18 ( 21 ) ___________ 8.88_4.88__13.76 ___ 4.8_73.3__39.05 mm_ 18_ (t27) _14 _ 19 ___ 86.0 (20) __ Let It Snow! (L1-7) ___________6.60^6.58__13.18 ___11.2_57.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (19) _15 _ 24 ___ 88.0 (16) __ moorlander ( 34 ) ___________7.55_5.58__13.13____ 9.2_65.3__37.25 mm_ 15_ (24) _16 _ 36 ___ 95.0 (04) __ The PIT ( 15 ) ________________9.52_3.41__12.93 ____2.2_81.3__41.75 mm_t23_ (t34) _17 _ 05 ___ 66.0 (44) __ prolongedSnowLover ( 50 )__3.06_9.24__12.30 ___ 31.2_37.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (t5) _18 _ 29 ___106.0 (15) __ Reef ( 39 ) __________________ 7.76_4.56__12.32____ 8.8_74.3__41.55 mm_ 22_ (29) _19 _ 12 ___ 71.0 (38) __ February1978 ( 52 ) __________4.02_7.91__11.93___ 26.2_47.3__36.75 mm_ 14_ (12) (19.9)(26.5)_ 81.6 (24.4)__average of all data (CET, EWP)_6.20_5.09_11.29___ 15.6_72.2__43.70 mm_27.8_(26.5) _20 _ 43 ___ 99.0 (03) __ jonboy (L1-2) _________________9.38^1.90 _11.28 ____ 1.8_ 90.3__46.05 mm_ 31_ (43) _21 _ 40 ___ 91.0 (9) ___ summer blizzard ( 27 ) _______8.71_2.47__11.18 ___ 6.2_87.3__46.75 mm_t33_ (40) _22 _ 02 ___ 55.0 (55) __ Frigid ( 38 ) __________________ 1.30_9.81__11.11 ____42.2_26.3__34.25 mm_t10_ (2) (22.4)(27)___ 81.0 (25) __ Consensus_________________ 6.10_4.98__11.08 ___ 16.2_73.3__44.75 mm_29.0_(t27) _23 _ 15 ___125.0 (41) __Addicks Fan 1981 ( 29 ) _____ 3.60_7.43__11.03____27.8_51.3__39.55 mm _ 20_ (t14) _24 _ 49 ___ 96.0 (01) __ dancerwithwings ( 3 ) ________10.00_0.76__10.76 ___ 1.2_102.3__51.75 mm_t43_(49) _25 _ 33 ___ 84.0 (22) __ Emmett Garland ( 36 ) _______6.58_3.89__10.47 ___ 13.2_80.3__46.75 mm_t33_ (t32) _26 _ 10 ___ 62.0 (50) __ chilly milly ( 4 ) _______________2.10_8.29__10.39 ___35.2_43.3__39.25 mm_ 19_ (10) _27 _ 22 ___ 74.0 (35) __ rwtwm (L1-9) ________________ 4.28^5.98__10.26 ___ 23.2_63.3__43.25 mm_ 26_ (22) _28 _ 25 ___ 74.0 (34) __ Metwatch ( 46 ) ______________ 4.66_5.38__10.04 ___ 23.2_66.3__ 44.75 mm_ 29_ (25) _29 _ 26 ___ 76.0 (31) __ Mulzy (L1-13) ________________ 4.84^5.18__10.02 ___ 21.2_71.3__46.25 mm_ 32_ (26) _30 _ 13 ___135.0 (52) __ I remember Atlantic252( 2 ) _ 1.84_7.72__ 9.56 ____37.8_49.3__43.55 mm_ 27_ (13) _31 _ --- ___ 95.0 (05) __ Tillys ( L1-1 ) __________________ 9.14^ -- --_ 9.14 _____ 2.2_78.3__ 40.25 mm _21_ (---) _32 _ 38 ___ 80.0 (26) __ stewfox ( 16 ) ________________ 5.94_2.85__8.79 ___ 17.2_86.3__51.75 mm_t43_(t38.) _33 _ 34 ___ 75.0 (32) __ John88b (L1-3) _______________4.68^3.61__8.29 ___ 22.2_81.3__51.75 mm_t43_(t34) _34 _ 23 ___ 62.3 (48) __ Polar Gael ( 18 ) _____________ 2.42_5.78__ 8.20 ___ 34.9_64.8__49.85 mm _39_(23) _35 _ --- ___105.0 (14) __ ScottD ( 6 ) ___________________7.92 _ -- --_ 7.92 ____ 7.8_78.3__ 43.05 mm _ 25_ (---) _36_ 18 ___ 53.0 (56) __ Midlands Ice Age ( 48 ) _______1.14_6.77__7.91 ___ 44.2_56.3__50.25 mm_ 40_(18.) _37 _ 44 ___ 81.0 (25) __Mr Maunder ( 33 ) ___________ 6.10_1.71 __ 7.81 __ 16.2_94.3__55.25 mm_t50_(44) _38 _ 16 ___ 52.0 (58) __ seaside60 (L1-10) ___________ 0.58^7.03^_7.61 ____45.2_51.3__48.25 mm _ 37_(t14) _39 _ 17 ___ 45.0 (61) __ davehsug ( 45 ) _____________ 0.40_6.96__ 7.36 ____ 52.2_53.3__52.75 mm_t47_(17) _40 _ --- ___ 88.0 (18) __ jmp223 (L1-5) _______________ 7.08^_-- --__ 7.08 ____ 9.2_78.3__ 43.75 mm _ 28_( --- ) _41 _ 39 ___ 70.0 (40) __ daniel* ( 42 ) ________________ 3.78_2.75__6.53 ____27.2_86.3__ 56.75 mm_ 53_(t38.) _42 _ --- ___110.0 (21) __summer8906 ( 13 ) __________ 6.40 _ -- --_ 6.40 ____12.8_78.3__45.55 mm_ 30_ (---) _43 _ 50 ___115.0 (28) __ summer shower ( 12 ) ______ 5.68_0.57__ 6.25 ___ 17.8_105.3_61.55 mm_ 57_(50) _44 _ 21 ___ --- --- (---) __ Wold Topper ( ---) ___________ -- -- _6.18__ 6.18 ___ 21.2_62.3__41.75 mm _t23_ (21) _45 _ 31 ___ 59.0 (53) __ Bobd29 ( 26 ) _______________ 1.62_4.18 __5.80 ___38.2_78.3__58.25 mm _54_(31) _46 _ --- ___115.0 (29) __ summer of 95 ( 35 ) ________ 5.60_ -- -- __ 5.60 ____17.8_78.3__48.05 mm_ 36_(---) _47 _ 35 ___ 60.0 (51) __ Earthshine ( 17 ) ____________ 1.94_3.51__ 5.45 ___37.2_81.3__59.25 mm _56_(t34) _48 _ --- ___ 80.0 (27) ___Rob79812010 (L1-6) ________ 5.56 _-- --_ 5.52 ____17.2_78.3__47.75 mm _35_(---) _49 _ --- ___ 76.6 (30) __KirkcaldyWeather ( 11 ) ______ 5.30 _-- --_ 5.30 ____20.6_78.3__49.45 mm _38_(---) _50 _ 42 ___ 65.0 (46) __ Weather Observer ( 44 ) ____ 2.82_2.18__5.00 ___ 32.2_89.3__58.75 mm _55_(t41) _51 _ --- ___120.0 (33) __EastLancsRain ( 1 ) __________ 4.88 _-- --__ 4.88 ____22.8_78.3__ 50.55 mm_ 41_( --- ) _52 _ 47 ___ 67.0 (42) __ SteveB ( 10 ) ________________ 3.38_1.14__4.52 ____30.2_98.3__64.25 mm_t58_(47) _53 _ (---) __ 72.0 (36) __ harveyslugger ( 23 ) ________ 4.34_ ---- __ 4.34 ___ 25.2_ 78.3__51.75 mm_t43_(---) _54 _ 32 ___ --- --- (---) __ Alexis J9 ( --- ) _______________ -- -- _3.99__3.99 ___ 21.2 _80.3__50.75 mm_ 42_(t32) _55 _ 46 ___ 64.0 (47) __ Stationary Front ( 51 ) _____ 2.58_1.33__3.91 ___ 33.2_97.3__65.25 mm_ 60_(46) _56 _ --- ___ 70.0 (39) __ weatherforducks ( 25 ) _____ 3.86_ -- --__ 3.86 ____27.2_78.3__52.75 mm_t47_(---) _57_ 37 ___ 53.0 (57) __ Somerset girl (L1-11) _______ 0.76^3.04__3.80 ___ 44.2_84.3__64.25 mm_t58_(37) _58 _ --- ___ 67.0 (43) __sukayuonsensnow ( 32 ) ____ 3.30 _-- --_ 3.30 ____ 30.2_78.3__54.25 mm_ 49_(---) _59 _ 45 ___ 56.3 (54) __ Roger J Smith ( 5 ) __________ 1.46_1.52__2.98 ___ 40.9_96.6__68.75 mm_ 63_(45) _60 _ --- ____ 65.0 (45) __ Climate Man ( 14 ) _________ 2.90_ --- __ 2.90 ___ 32.2_78.3__55.25 mm_t50_(---) _61 _ 51 ___132.0 (49) __ shillitocettwo (L1-14) _______2.02^0.38__2.40 ___ 34.8_110.3_ 72.55 mm _64_(51) _62 _ 41 ___ --- --- (--) ___gazse9 ( -- ) ________________ -- --_ 2.28 __ 2.28 ___ 21.2_89.3__55.25 mm_t50_(t41) _63 _ 48 ___ 50.0 (59) __ Leo97t ( 26 ) _______________ 0.66_0.95__1.61 ___ 47.2_101.3_74.25 mm_ 65_(48.) _64 _ --- ___ 45.3 (60) __ Shaunado ( 6 ) _____________ 0.50_--- ---_0.50 ____51.9_78.3__65.10 mm_ 61_(---) _65 _ --- ___ 45.0 (62) __ Norrance ( 53 ) ____________ 0.30 _ -- --_0.30 ____52.2_78.3__65.25 mm_ 62_(---) _66 _ 52 ___ 40.0 (63) __ syed2878 ( 19 ) ____________0.00_0.19__0.19 ____57.2_111.3_84.25 mm_ 67_(52) _67 _ 53 ___ -- --- ( --- ) __ Neil N ( --- ) _______________---- 0.00 __ 0.00 ___ 21.2_140.3__80.75 mm_ 66_(53) Table of forecasts for March 2024 ... EWP with range and sign errors indicated (scoring int's before applying are 0.20) 10.0 _ 95.1 __ Polar Gael (19) __________________129.0 __ DR(S)NO -- range 6 (--.15) 9.3 _ --- --- __ BlueSkies_do_I_see (10) _________110.0 __ B87^^ -- range 4 (-.08) 8.4 _ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (23) _____________104.0 __ virtualsphere -- range 3 (-.05) 8.3 _ 94.0 __ Emmett Garland (37) _____________ 95.1 __ Polar Gael ---- range 1 ( v ) 8.2 _ 82.0 __ Methuselah ( 2 ) __________________ 95.0 __ syed2878 8.2 _ 94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 (38) ____________ 95.0 __ Stationary Front 8.1 _ --- --- __ Typhoon John ( 9 ) _______________ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder 8.0 _ 60.0 __ The PIT (22) _______________________95.0 __ SLEETY 7.9 _ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (24) _____________94.0 __ Emmett Garland 7.9 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley (25) _________________94.0 __ Addicks Fan 1981 7.9 _ 95.0 __ Stationary Front (28) _____________ 94.0 __ SteveB^ 7.9 _ 72.0 __ Don (41) __________________________ 91.6 __ Weather26 7.8 _ 81.0 __ feb1991blizzard (36) ______________90.0 __ Let It Snow! 7.8 _ 87.5 __ snowray (39) ______________________90.0 __ weatherforducks 7.8 _ 54.0 __ sunny_vale (L1-5) _________________90.0 __ Jeff C^ 7.7 _ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings (13) _____________89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age 7.7 _ --- --- __ Summer Sun (29) _________________88.0 __ summer18 7.7 _ 95.0 __ Mr Maunder (32) _________________ 88.0 __ seaside60^ 7.6 _ 77.0 __ Reef (18) __________________________88.0 __ stewfox^ 7.6 _ 85.0 __ J 10 (43) ___________________________87.5 __ snowray 7.5 _ 78.0 __ summer8906 ( 5 ) _________________85.0 __ J 10 --- range 1 (^) 7.5 _ --- --- __ Damianslaw (40) _________________ 82.0 __ Methuselah -- range 2 7.4 _ 78.8 __ Roger J Smith (26) _________________82.0 __ rwtwm 7.4 _ 88.0 __ stewfox (L1-6) _____________________81.0 __ feb1991blizzard 7.3 _ 78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 (16) _____ 81.0 __ Wade^^ --- range 2 (-0.03) 7.3 _ 74.0 __ summer blizzard (15) _____________78.8 __ Roger J Smith -- range 3 7.3 _ 91.6 __ Weather26 (35) ___________________ 78.0 __ summer8906 7.2 _ 78.0 __ consensus _________________________ 78.0 __ consensus 7.2 _ 90.0 __ Let It Snow! ( 3 ) ___________________78.0 __ I Remember Atlantic252 7.2 _ 72.0 __ Frigid (21) _________________________ 77.0 __ dancerwithwings 7.2 _ 77.0 __ Mulzy (30) _________________________ 77.0 __ Reef 7.2 _ 89.0 __ Midlands Ice Age (33) ______________77.0 __ Mulzy 7.1 _ 66.0 __ shillitocettwo (11) _________________ 76.5 __ Metwatch 7.1 _ 67.0 __ Weather Observer (31) ____________74.0 __ summer blizzard -- range 4 (-0.08) 7.1 _ 88.0 __ seaside60 (L1-2) ___________________72.5 __ bobd 7.0 _ 90.0 __ weatherforducks (27) _____________ 72.0 __ Frigid 6.9 _ 72.5 __ bobd29 ( 1 ) _______________________ 72.0 __ Don 6.9 _129.0__ DR(S)NO (12) _____________________ 71.5 __ 1981-2010 6.9 _110.0__ B87 (L2-1) ________________________ 70.0 __ jonboy 6.8 _ 95.0 __ syed2878 (17) _____________________70.0 __ davehsug^ 6.8 _ 68.0 __ February1978 (44) ________________ 68.0 __ February1978 ---range 5 (-.10) 6.7 _ 65.4 __ mean 1991-2020 __________________ 67.3 __ 1994-2023 6.7 _ 67.3 __ mean 1994-2023 __________________67.0 __ Weather Observer 6.7 _ 88.0 __ summer18 ( 6 ) ____________________66.0 __ shillitocettwo 6.7 _ 60.0 __ Leo97t ( 4 ) ________________________65.4 __ 1991-2020 6.7 _ 94.0 __ SteveB (L1-4) ______________________63.0 __ Godber 1 -- range 6 (-.15) (-.01) 6.6 _ 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010 __________________61.6___1766-2023 6.6 _104.0__ virtualsphere ( 7 ) _________________60.0 __ Leo97t (-.02) 6.6 _ 82.0 __ rwtwm (20) _______________________ 60.0 __ The PIT (-.02) 6.5 _ 76.5 __ Metwatch (47) ____________________ 60.0 __ daniel* (-.02) 6.4 _ 70.0 __ jonboy (14) _______________________ 55.0 __ Neil N -- range 6 (-.20) (-.05) 6.3 _ 63.0 __ Godber 1 (46) ____________________ 54.0 __ sunny_vale^ (-.06) 6.3 _ 70.0 __ davehsug (L1-3) __________________ 53.8 __ WYorksWeather (-.06) 6.1 _ 55.0 __ Neil N ( 8 ) ________________________ 43.0 __ Summer Shower (-.06) 6.0 _ 81.0 __ Wade (L2-2) _______________________ (six CET only) 5.4 _ 60.0 __ daniel* (45) _______________________ 5.4 _ 61.6 __ mean 1766-2023 ________________ 4.9 _ 95.0 __ SLEETY (34) _______________________ 4.5 _ 90.0 __ Jeff C ( L1-1 ) ______________________ 4.1 _ --- --- __ Kentish Man (42) _________________ _________________________ 47 on time CET and 41 on time EWP forecasts, both added 8 late forecasts (so far) total 55 CET, 49 EWP (^late day)
  10. Welcome back CET updates, so looking at 12z GFS the CET would increase quite rapidly to around 8.5 C at a peak on 21st and would then fall sharply for five or six days (average only around 4-5 C) to reach 7.6 by 27th. EWP has not updated since 7th but two days were basically dry and yesterday around 8 mm additional so we're at about 27 mm now, the projection is quite wet, 80 mm more by 27th, would place us near 110 mm and once again above all but two of our forecasts (B87 at 110, DR(S)NO at 129 mm).
  11. Third day with no updates for CET, current estimate is 5.6 or 5.7 C for nine days. Today's average around 7.5 would see that increasing to about 5.9 or 6.0 C.
  12. Just noting 00z GFS is warmer (considerably) towards 18-25 march and would give a much higher outcome (around 7.5 or even 8 C).
  13. Once again no CET update today, current estimate is around 5.3 or 5.4 C (to 8th). GFS says we rise gradually to about 6.5 by around 16th or 17th then fall back into high 5 possibly as it turns quite chilly after that. EWP projections are now closer to 70 mm. If we were 5.5 to 6.0 by 25th it would be likely a finish in the 6s as it would require an average of 11.1 C to get from 6.0 to 7.0 in the six days left.
  14. No CET update available today, would say it could be 5.2 C after a 6 C average yesterday.
  15. Don, if the GFS is anywhere close to accurate on trends, we will be nowhere near 7 C by 23rd, in fact we could be at or below 6.0, it looks relatively cool almost every day other than a few milder days around 15-18. If CET is 6.0 C on 23rd, even a warm 12 C last week would leave the outcome near 7.8, so it would need to turn near-record warm to avoid finishing lower. EWP is around 19 mm to today, looks to add about 40 mm so a near average 60 mm by 23rd.
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