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Roger J Smith

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Roger J Smith last won the day on December 24 2011

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About Roger J Smith

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    New Denver BC Canada
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    forecast research on a global scale, thus an interest in UK weather as part of a larger research program that concentrates mainly on severe weather in North America.

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  1. (a) CET Temperature forecast contest -- averages and extremes ... all years since 1981 are shown for comparison ... 25.2 ... 29th, 1948, warmest daily mean 19.7 ... 2006 (warmest July) 19.5 ... 1983 (2nd warmest) 18.8 ... 1783 (3rd warmest) 18.7 ... 1852, 1976 (tied 4th warmest) 18.6 ... 1995 (6th warmest) 18.3 ... 2013 18.2 ... 1989 18.0 ... 1994 17.7 ... 1999, 2014 17.6 ... 2003 17.3 ... 1991 17.2 ... 2001 17.1 ... 2010 16.9 ... 1984, 1990, 2005, 2016 16.8 ... 2017 16.7 ... 1997 ... average for 1981-2010 and 1988-2017 and 2001-2017, 1991-2017 16.5 ... 1982, 1996 ... average for 1971-2000 16.2 ... 1985, 1992, 2008 16.1 ... 2009 ... average for 1961-1990, also for 1901-2000 and 1701-1800 16.0 ... 2002 ... average for all years 1659-2017 (15.98) 15.9 ... 1986, 1987, 2015 15.8 ... 2004 ... average for 1801-1900 15.6 ... average for 1659-1700 15.5 ... 1981, 1998, 2000, 2012 15.2 ... 1993, 2007, 2011 mean and coldest since 1988 (14.7) 14.7 ... 1988 (tied with 1980 as coldest since 1965, and with four other years as tied 35th coldest) 14.0 ... 1965 CET (tied 11th coldest with 1674, 1685, 1713) 13.9 ... 1919 (10th coldest) 13.8 ... 1725, 1840, 1841 (tied 7th coldest) 13.7 ... 1888, 1922 (tied 5th coldest) 13.6 ... 1879 (4th coldest) 13.5 ... 1695,1802 (tied 2nd coldest) 13.4 ... 1816 (coldest July) 8.7 ... 20th (1836) coldest daily mean ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Enter your July forecast by end of the day Saturday 30th June without penalty, or during the first three days of July with increasing time penalties. ================================================================================= (b) Optional EWP contest Predict the England and Wales mean precipitation in mm for July 2018. The contest uses the NCIC version from the UKMO, which tends to run slightly lower than the Hadley version, although not always (see July 2009 in table below). Here are some averages and extremes as a guide: 182.6 __ wettest (Hadley 1766-2017) in 1828 __ 13 other years wetter than 2009 (1766-1909) 142.1 __ wettest (NCIC 1910-2017) in 2009 __ Hadley 140.7 (for same year in period 1910-2017) _71.1 __ average for 1988-2017 _65.4 __ average for 1981-2010 _24.1 __ driest (NCIC since 1981) in 1999 _14.3 __ driest (NCIC 1910-2017) in 1911 __ Hadley 15.8 (for same year in period 1910-2017) __8.2 __ driest (Hadley 1766-2017) in 1825 __ only other year below 1911 was 1800 (9.1 mm) _____________________________________________________________________________________ Enter your forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines (three hours grace period per day, first late penalty 0300h 1st July) Maximum score 10.0, late penalties 0.2 per day.
  2. Roger J Smith

    Daily C.E.T. Average Values 1772-2011

    Some new records were set in May 2018 ... (1) Warmest daily CET mean for 7th 16.9 (was 16.8 in 2008). (2) Wettest 24th CEP now 13.8 mm (was 9.7 mm in 2014). (3) Driest 10-day intervals ending 22 and 23 May, both 0.1 mm. ... previous records 0.3 1992 and 0.6 2010.
  3. These are the warmest averages (1772 to 2017) for the first ten days of June: (1) 1982 _ 18.64 (2) 1822 _ 18.46 (3) 1940 _ 18.33 (4) 1846 _ 18.29 (5) 1933 _ 17.90 (6) 1950 _ 17.73 (7) 1970 _ 17.41 (8) 1791 _ 17.31 (9) 1775 _ 17.20 (10) 1858 _ 17.01 (11) 2004 _ 16.60 (12) 1911 _ 16.43 (13) 1963 _ 16.39 (14) 1939 _ 16.18 (15) 1993 _ 16.16 (16) 1798 _ 16.15 (17) 1786 _ 16.10 (18) 1947 _ 16.09 (19) 1804 _ 16.06 (20) 1960 _ 16.00
  4. I don't think there's a right or wrong way to present the rainfall percentage, just as long as readers understand it's a percentage of end of month average values, as to what percentage it represents for the elapsed time, that can only be an estimate unless you want to crunch a lot of numbers, but the assumption would be a constant daily rate to get to the average, and you could modify that a bit if you felt the month had a trend line (from lower to higher most likely for June). But keep on with the current format, now I think anyone who wasn't aware of the time frame will be and they can make their own estimates.
  5. Thanks for posting these rainfall updates, it gives us a way to estimate the outcome of the EWP contest as Sheffield is fairly central to the grid -- readers should realize that when you give a percentage of normal, I believe you're referring to your station average at the end of the month, in fact the 18.6 mm assuming it's over five days is something like six times 23.5% of normal for the five day interval (adjustments can be made depending on comparative daily rates in May, June and later July). If the 6th was a dry day there (I don't know) then same comment but five times now, in other words, June is running just a little on the wet side of normal so far. If you wanted to incorporate that into your report, just multiply each percentage you get by (30/n) where n is the number of days included in the report. Example, after the 10th, your reported percentage would be "to this point" after multiplying by 3 (30/10). Some other places are likely running below this pace, I track amounts in Ireland for a different forum and contest, and some places there are running 20% or less.
  6. Meanwhile I posted the CET scores from the excel file that I managed to open, over in the May thread. You can check there, SB you were in 24th place in that update. The Hadley EWP alternate figure has come in at 52.0 mm. That means (since the contest NCIC scores are based on 48.8 mm) most of the lower scores would be the same, as for the higher scores, this is the portion of the table that would be different, down to where it becomes identical with the previously posted EWP scores, and following that, the updated annual "Hadley EWP" scores (which are not contest official partly because some forecasters are probably going a bit lower knowing how NCIC is always a bit lower than Hadley, but if you want to know how Hadley is treating you, this is your place to find out...) Hadley EWP scores for May (only those which are different from NCIC posted earlier, scores below 3.0 can be seen in that table, same here) Rank _ Score _ Forecast _ Error __ Forecaster 1. _____10.0 ___ 51.0 __ -1.0 ___ NORRANCE 2. _____ 9.8 ___ 50.1 __ -1.9 ___ POLAR GAEL T3 _____ 9.6 ___ 50.0 __ -2.0 ___ J10 T3 _____ 9.6 ___ 54.0 __ +2.0 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID T5 _____ 9.2 ___ 55.0 __ +3.0 ___ TIMMYTOUR, THE PIT, MAPANTZ 8. _____ 8.6 ___ 48.0 __ -4.0 ___ GODBER.1 9. _____ 8.4 ___ 56.0 __ +4.0 ___ SINGULARITY T10 ____ 8.2 ___ 58.0 __ +6.0___ DAMI, REEF 12. _____ 7.8 ___ 45.0 __ -3.8 ___ B87 T13 ____ 7.6 ___ 60.0 __ +8.0___ DIAGONALREDLINE, WEATHER-HISTORY (T15)___ 7.3 ___ 61.1 __ +9.1___ average 1981-2010, average 1988-2017 15. _____ 7 2 ___ 42.0 __ -6.6 ___ MULZY T16 ____ 7.0 ___ 41.0 __-11.0 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE, DAVEHSUG T16_____7.0 ___ 63.0 __+11.0 ___ SYED2878 19. _____6.3 ___ 64.0 __+12.0 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT 20. _____6.1 ___ 39.0 __-15.0 ___ LF1002 T21 ____ 5.9 ___ 68.0 __+16.0 ___ TJM14, STATIONARY FRONT, Consensus 23. _____ 5.7 ___ 68.0 __+16.0 ___ SEASIDE 60 (5.9 - 0.2) 24. _____ 5.3 ___ 68.8 __+16.8 ___ WEATHER26 T25 ____ 5.1 ___ 35.0 __-17.0 ___ DANIEL* T25 ____ 5.1 ___ 69.0 __+17.0 ___ STARGAZER T27 ____ 4.7 ___ 34.0 __-18.0 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST T27 ____ 4.7 ___ 70.0 __+18.0 ___ JEFF C, DON 30. _____ 4.1 ___ 70.8 __+18.8 ___ CHRISBELL-not-the-WEATHERMAN 31. _____ 3.9 ___ 71.0 __+19.0 ___ JONBOY 32. _____ 3.7 ___ 71.5 __+19.5 ___ LET IT SNOW! 33. _____ 3.5 ___ 32.0 __-20.0 ___ ROGER J SMITH 34 _____ 3.3 ___ 72.0 __+20.0 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE (3.5 - 0.2) (scores 3.0 and below are same as previous table, errors reduced by 3.2) Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to Apr 2018) -- Hadley scoring Rank __ Forecaster ________________Dec__Jan__Feb__Mar__Apr__May___TOTALS _____ NCIC rank ________________________________________________________________ Had _ NCIC _01 ___ JONBOY __________________8.8 __7.4 __6.7__10.0__9.4 __3.9 ___ 46.2 _ 44.2 ____ _ 02 _02 ___ SINGULARITY _____________ 5.2 __7.0 __9.1 __7.7 __5.6 __8.4 ___ 43.0 _ 44.3 ____ _ 01 _03 ___ NORRANCE _______________ 7.0 __2.2 __9.6 __9.3 __4.7__10.0___ 42.8 _ 41.7 ____ _ 05 _04 ___ POLAR GAEL ______________ 4.6 __9.0 __9.5 __2.6 __6.9 __9.8 ___ 42.4 _ 43.0 ____ _ 03 _05 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID _____ 6.4 __9.8 __3.5 __5.7 __6.3 __9.6 ___ 41.3 _ 41.9 ____ _ 04 _06 ___ SEASIDE 60 _______________ 5.8 __4.3 __5.2 __8.8__10.0__5.7 ___ 39.8 _ 37.4 ____ _ 08 _07 ___ DON _____________________ 1.8 __5.7 __8.4 __8.3 __9.8 __4.7 ___ 38.7 _ 36.7 ____ _ 09 _08 ___ J10 ______________________ 4.4 __7.6 __0.7 __8.3 __7.7 __9.6 ___ 38.3 _ 40.0 ____ _ 06 _09 ___ STEVE B __________________7.4 __8.2 __3.5 __8.8 __9.4 __0.2 ___ 37.5 _ 35.6 ____ _ 12 _10 ___ STEWFOX ________________ 7.0 __9.6 __4.0 __8.9 __6.9 __0.6 ___ 37.0 _ 38.1 ____ _ 07 _11 ___ DKEANE3 _________________ 7.2 __7.8 __5.6 __9.1 __3.5 __2.8 ___ 36.0 _ 35.5 ____ _ 13 (12) ___ consensus ________________ 5.2 __5.9 __5.4 __5.7__6.5 __5.9 ___ 34.6 _ 35.2 ____ _ (14) (12) ___ average 1981-2010 __________7.6 __6.6 __5.5 __5.0 __2.3 __7.3 ___ 34.3 _ 33.7 ____ _ (15) _12 ___ SIMSHADY ________________ 7.8 __7.6 __0.4 __7.2 __9.4 __1.8 ___ 34.2 _ 35.8 ____ _ 11 _13 ___ GODBER.1 _________________2.4 __7.2 __5.9 __3.5 __6.3 __8.6 ___ 33.9 _ 36.3 ____ _ 10 _14 ___ SYED2878 _________________ 4.8__10.0__3.8__5.0 __3.2 __7.0 ___ 33.8 _ 31.9 ____ _ 19 T15 ___ DAVEHSUG ________________1.0 __1.2__10.0__4.8 __9.4 __7.0 ___ 33.4 _ 31.4 ____ _ 20 T15 ___ DR (S) NO _________________ 9.6 __8.4 __1.2 __6.2 __5.6 __2.4 ___ 33.4 _ 34.8 ____ _ 14 _17 ___ BOBD29 ___________________3.2 __6.6 __5.0 __5.9 __8.4 __2.0 ___ 33.1 _ 30.2 ____ _ 21 _18 ___ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WxMAN_9.4 __6.8 __2.6 __6.4 __3.7__4.1 ___ 33.0 _ 33.7 ____ _ 15 (19)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)_7.7 __8.3 __3.9 __3.4 __2.2 __7.3 ___ 32.8 _ 32.3 ____ _ (19) _19 ___ MULZY ____________________7.0 __8.8 __7.1 __0.9 __1.6 __7.2 ___ 32.6 _ 33.2 ____ _ 17 _20 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE _________3.4 __3.3 __9.1 __9.6 __3.2 __3.0 ___ 31.6 _ 33.1 ____ _ 18 _21 ___ MAPANTZ __________________5.2 __6.3 __1.9 __4.3 __5.6 __9.2 ___ 31.5 _ 33.4 ____ _ 16 _22 ___ REEF _____________________ 8.6 __5.5 __2.8 __3.8 __1.6 __8.2 ___ 30.5 _ 30.1 ____ _ 22 _23 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY _________0.6 __3.3 __6.1 __2.6 __9.6 __7.6 ___ 29.8 _ 28.4 ____ _T26 _24 ___ THE_PIT ___________________ 6.0 __1.0 __8.4 __1.4 __3.4 __9.2 ___ 29.2 _ 28.6 ____ _ 25 _25 ___ VIZZY2004 _________________8.6 __8.6 __8.8 __2.6 __0.5 __---- ___ 29.1 _ 30.0 ____ _ 23 _26 ___ DANIEL* ___________________ 3.8 __5.1 __4.9 __4.3 __5.8 __5.1 ___ 29.0 _ 28.4 ____ _T26 _27 ___ PEGG24 ___________________9.2 __5.1 __0.7 __6.2 __6.3 __1.2 ___ 28.7 _ 29.5 ____ _ 24 _28 ___ STARGAZER _______________ 1.4 __9.6 __2.4 __7.1 __2.3 __5.1 ___ 27.9 _ 27.5 ____ _T30 _29 ___ RELATIVISTIC ______________ 8.0 __2.2 __8.4 __1.2 __7.5 __0.4 ___ 27.7 _ 24.3 ____ _ 36 _30 ___ TIMMYTOUR _______________10.0 __0.2 __6.5 __1.7 __---- __9.2 ___ 27.6 _ 27.5 ____ _T-30 _31 ___ DAVID SNOW_______________ 2.2 __3.3 __9.5 __5.7 __4.7 __2.2 ___ 27.4 _ 27.4 ____ _T32 T32 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE ___________ 4.4 __1.2 __6.7 __1.6 __9.4 __3.3 ___ 26.6 _ 27.9 ____ _ 29 T32 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE _______ 2.0 __2.4 __8.9 __4.5 __1.8 __7.0 ___ 26.6 _ 27.4 ____ _T-32 _34 ___ ROGER J SMITH ____________ 0.2 __1.8 __6.7 __9.8 __3.9 __3.5 ___ 25.9 _ 28.1 ____ _ 28 _35 ___ DAMI ______________________ 5.4 __3.9 __0.9 __5.7 __1.6 __8.2 ___ 25.7 _ 25.1 ____ _ 34 _36 ___ LET IT SNOW ! ______________---- __---- __7.9 __6.5 __7.5 __3.7 ___ 25.6 _ 23.5 ____ _ 40 _37 ___ WEATHER 26 _______________---- __4.5 __4.5 __9.5 __0.9 __5.3 ___ 24.7 _ 24.1 ____ _ 37 T38 ___ CHRIS. R __________________ 6.2 __0.6 __9.6 __7.9 __ ---- __---- ___ 24.3 _ 24.0 ____ _ 38 T38 ___ JEFF C ____________________ 7.6 __4.9 __1.1 __3.3 __2.7 __4.7 ___ 24.3 _ 23.7 ____ _ 39 _40 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER_______ ---- __---- __3.5 __8.8 __8.4 __2.6 ___ 23.3 _ 24.9 ____ _ 35 _45 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE ________ ---- __---- __2.1 __6.9 __5.6 __7.6 ___ 22.2 _ 22.2 ____ _ 41 _41 ___ DOCTOR32 _________________1.6 __3.9 __6.7 __5.0 __2.7 __1.4 ___ 21.3 _ 21.4 ____ _ 42 _42 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER___ 3.6 __0.8 __1.6 __3.3 __8.0 __---- ___ 17.3 _ 19.1 ____ _ 44 _43 ___ GREAT PLUM _______________ ---- __---- __8.4 __7.4 __---- __---- ___ 15.8 _ 14.8 ____ _ 45 _44 ___ STATIONARY FRONT _________ 1.2 __4.7 __6.5 __2.6 __0.7 __5.9 ___ 21.6 _ 21.1 ____ _ 43 _46 ___ FOZFOSTER ________________ ---- __5.5 __4.5 __3.8 __---- __---- ___ 13.8 _ 13.4 ____ _ 47 _47 ___ ED STONE __________________4.4 __1.6 __4.2 __1.2 __2.1 __---- ___ 13.5 _ 13.6 ____ _ 46 _48 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN _____________ ---- __2.4__10.0__---- __---- __---- ___ 12.4 _ 12.4 ____ _ 49 _49 ___ ALEXISJ9 ___________________2.8 __6.1 __1.9 __---- __0.2 __1.0 ___ 12.0 _ 11.4 ____ _ 50 _50 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST ______ 0.8 __0.0 __3.5 __2.6 __---- __4.7 ___11.6 __12.8 ____ _ 48 _51 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE _________ 9.8 __---- __---- __---- __---- __---- ____ 9.8 __ 9.6 ____ _ 51 _52 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ___________ 9.0 __---- __---- __---- __---- __---- ____ 9.0 __ 7.6 ____ _ 60 _53 ___ NORTHWEST SNOW __________---- __---- __8.9 __ ---- __---- __---- ____ 8.9 __ 9.5 ____ _ 52 _54 ___ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS 8.2 __---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- ____ 8.2 __ 8.6 ____ _ 55 _55 ___ LETTERBOXER ______________ ---- __---- __3.6 __---- __ 4.3 __---- ____ 7.9 __8.5 ____ _ 56 _55 ___ B87 ________________________ ----__---- __---- __---- __ ---- __ 7.8 ____ 7.8 __ 9.2 ____ _ 54 T57 ___ CORAM _____________________---- __---- __---- __7.7 __ ---- __---- ____ 7.7 __ 7.7 ____ _T-58 T57 ___ IAPENNELL __________________---- __5.9 __---- __---- __---- __1.8 ____ 7.7 __ 8.1 ____ _ 57 _59 ___ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE ________---- __---- __---- __ 0.5 __7.1 __---- ____ 7.6 __ 9.3 ____ _ 53 _60 ___ BOOFERKING _______________ 3.0 __4.5 __---- __---- __ ---- __---- ____ 7.5 __ 7.7 ____ _T-58 _61 ___ RICEY076 ___________________ ---- __---- __---- __6.9 __---- __---- ____ 6.9 __ 6.9 ____ _ 62 _62 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT __________----__---- __---- __---- __ ----__ 6.3 ____ 6.3 __ 5.7 ____ _ 65 _63___ MOORLANDER _______________ 5.8 __---- __---- __ 0.4 __---- __---- ____ 6.2 __ 6.3 ____ _ 63 _64 ___ LF1002 ______________________----__---- __---- __---- __ ----__ 6.1 ____ 6.1 __ 7.0 ____ _ 61 T65 ___ TJM14 ______________________ ----__---- __---- __---- __ ----__ 5.9 ____ 5.9 __ 5.3 ____ _ 66 T65 ___ JAMES M ____________________---- __---- __5.9 __---- __---- __---- ____ 5.9 __ 5.9 ____ _ 64 _67 ___ ROSS90 ____________________ ---- __---- __5.4 __---- __---- __ ---- ____ 5.4 __ 5.0 ____ _T-68 _68 ___ CASTELLANUS80 ____________ ---- __2.8 __2.3 __---- __---- __ ---- ____ 5.1 __ 5.1 ____ _ 67 _69 ___ BACKTRACK_________________---- __---- __---- __5.0 __---- __ ---- ____ 5.0 __ 5.0 ____ _T-68 _70 ___ THUNDERSNOW DAYS ________---- __---- __4.7 __---- __---- __ ---- ____ 4.7 __ 4.5 ____ _ 70 _71 ___ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM __ ---- __---- __---- __4.3 __---- __ ---- ____ 4.3 __ 4.3 ____ _ 71 _72 ___ MARK NEAL _________________---- __---- __---- __ 2.9 __---- __ ---- ____ 2.9 __ 2.9 ____ _ 72 _73 ___ MATT TARRANT ______________---- __---- __---- __ 2.8 __---- __ ---- ____ 2.8 __ 2.8 ____ _ 73 _74 ___ MORE SNOW ________________2.6 __ --- __---- __ ---- __---- __ ---- ____ 2.6 __ 2.6 ____ _ 74 _75 ___ SKY FULL ___________________---- __---- __1.2 __ ---- __---- __---- ____ 1.2 __ 1.2 ____ _ 75 _76 ___ ROBBIE GARRETT ___________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __---- __ 0.8 ____ 0.8 __ 0.8 ____ _ 76 _77 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED _________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 __0.7 __0.0 __0.0 ____ 0.7 __ 0.2 ____ _T-79 _78 ___ WEIRPIG ___________________ 0.4 __---- __----- __----__---- __ ---- ____ 0.4 __ 0.4 ____ _T-77 T79 ___ COLDEST WINTER ___________ ---- __---- __---- __ 0.2 __---- __---- ____ 0.2 __ 0.2 ____ _T-77 T79 ___ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 ____---- __---- __0.2 __----__ ---- __---- ____ 0.2 __ 0.2 ____ _T-79 _81 ___ DEEP SNOW PLEASE _________ ---- __---- __---- __0.0 __---- __ ---- ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ _ 81 __________________________________________________________________________________ (notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)
  7. As you may know, there are some problems in opening excel files on NW, it's not J10's fault that we can't easily open them, something is added to the attachment name by the NW software. The trick is to download the file then rename it so that .xlsx is at the end of the file name (all that other gobbledegook added by NW can go to oblivion), then get your own computer (assuming you have excel installed) to open the file even if you have to coax it through the "do you really want to open this file?" stages. I have just done that and here's the condensed version of the annual standings down to 30th place (if you're not in this list, you need to make some really good forecasts in part two of the contest year). The top ten can be seen in J10's summary post earlier, but I have included them in this list which is just the bare bones, names and total points. 1. Man with Beard ___ 494.7 _______ 11. pegg24 _______ 403.3 ________ 21. seaside 60 _____ 363.8 2. Don ____________ 468.8 _______ 12. damianslaw ____401.5 ________ 22. polar gael ______ 360.8 3. Norrance ________ 456.4 _______ 13. mulzy ________ 400.9 ________ 23. snowray _______ 355.0 4. doctor 32 ________ 451.7 _______ 14. Optimus Prime _ 396.8 ________ 24. summer blizzard_ 352.0 5. stewfox __________448.7 _______ 15. vizzy2004 _____ 395.6 ________ 25t -davehsug _____ 349.6 6. Godber 1 ________ 440.4 _______ 16. DAVID SNOW__ 395.0 ________ 25t -Ed Stone______ 349.6 7. Singularity _______ 425.1 _______ 17. metaltron______ 393.9 ________ 27. Radiating Dendrite 347.3 8. Born From the Void 423.9 _______ 18. dkeane3 ______ 393.3 ________ 28. stargazer ______ 345.5 9. The Pit __________ 415.1 _______ 19. reef __________387.4 ________ 29. weather 26 _____ 333.7 10. Steve B _________408.6 _______ 20. Mapantz______ 354.4 ________ 30. sundog ________ 323.7 The next ten without details are Midlands Ice Age, Summer Sun, Gael Force, Dr(S)No, virtualsphere, Mark Bayley, Duncan McAlister, diagonalredline, Roger J Smith, and ChrisBell-not-the-weatherman. ... 41st to end of regulars would be Kentish Man, Jeff C, Bobd29, dancerwithwings, weather-history, Kirkcaldy weather, Jonboy, Relativistic, dami, AlexisJ9, J10, Stationary Front, daniel*, syed2878, simshady, timmytour, Chris R, I Remember Atlantic 252, Blast from the Past, Let it snow!, Prolonged Snow Lover, Lettucing gutted
  8. If you are looking at the previous post, sorry I neglected to add "EWP forecasts" to the title of part 2 of the table. Or, maybe you're looking at the list I created a few posts back that compares temperature and precip forecasts? That list only has comparisons if you enter precip which you haven't chosen to do, so if you look again you'll see that the temperature rankings have # symbols added for each non-precip forecaster not mentioned in that table but who would drop the CET rank by that number of # symbols in a list for CET only. I only did this comparison once a few months ago and you would have to check J10's tables to find out where you stand in the temperature contest. I know the contest tables (for CET only) are hard to open, if you can't open them maybe we can print out the latest version over here, at least for the top half of the table with the regulars. I will see if I can do that later today because I know it's difficult to open them (you have to save them and go through a few steps that I have in a PM from J10 -- it's not his fault, blame NW and their odd software.)
  9. Scoring for May EWP contest The NCIC version is 48.8 mm. __ Full scoring tables here ___ https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=9 Top scores for May and annual follow ... MAY EWP scoring Rank _ Score _ Forecast _ Error __ Forecaster 1. _____10.0 ___ 48.0 __ -0.8 ___ GODBER.1 2. _____ 9.8 ___ 50.0 __ +1.2 ___ J10 3. _____ 9.6 ___ 50.1 __ +1.3 ___ POLAR GAEL 4. _____ 9.4 ___ 51.0 __ +2.2 ___ NORRANCE 5. _____ 9.2 ___ 45.0 __ -3.8 ___ B87 6. _____ 9.0 ___ 54.0 __ +5.2 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID T7 _____ 8.8 ___ 55.0 __ +6.2 ___ TIMMYTOUR, THE PIT, MAPANTZ 10. _____ 8 2 ___ 42.0 __ -6.6 ___ MULZY 11. _____ 8.0 ___ 56.0 __ +7.2 ___ SINGULARITY T12 ____ 7.8 ___ 41.0 __ -7.8 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE, DAVEHSUG T14 ____ 7.4 ___ 58.0 __ +9.2___ DAMI, REEF Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to May 2018) -- top scores Rank __ Forecaster _________________Dec__Jan__Feb__Mar__Apr__May___TOTAL __ previous rank _01 ___ SINGULARITY ______________5.2 __7.2 __9.8 __7.7 __6.4 __8.0 ___ 44.3 ____ _ 03 _02 ___ JONBOY __________________ 9.2 __7.8 __6.4 __9.6 __7.5 __3.7 ___ 44.2 ____ _ 01 _03 ___ POLAR GAEL _______________4.6 __9.4 __8.6 __2.6 __8.2 __9.6 ___ 43.0 ____ _ 06 _04 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID ______6.4 __9.8 __3.5 __5.7 __7.5 __9.0 ___ 41.9 ____ _ 07 _05 ___ NORRANCE ________________7.0 __2.2 __8.4 __9.3 __5.4 __9.4 ___ 41.7 ____ _T-11 _06 ___ J10 _______________________4.4 __7.6 __0.7 __8.3 __9.2 __9.8 ___ 40.0 ____ _ 13 _07 ___ STEWFOX _________________ 7.0 __9.4 __4.0 __8.9 __8.2 __0.6 ___ 38.1 ____ _ 02 _08___ SEASIDE 60 ________________ 5.8 __4.5 __4.8 __8.8 __8.4 __ 5.1 ___ 37.4 ____ _ T-11 _09 ___ DON ______________________ 1.8 __6.1 __7.4 __8.3 __8.8 __4.3 ___ 36.7 ____ _T-09 _10 ___ GODBER.1 _________________ 2.4 __7.4 __5.5 __3.5 __7.5 _10.0 ___ 36.1 ____ _ 19 _11 ___ SIMSHADY _________________ 8.2 __8.4 __0.4 __7.2 __9.8 __1.8 ___ 35.8 ____ _ 05 _12 ___ STEVE B ___________________7.4 __8.2 __3.5 __8.8 __7.5 __0.2 ___ 35.6 ____ _ 04 _13 ___ DKEANE3 __________________ 7.2 __7.6 __5.2 __9.1 __3.6 __2.8 ___ 35.5 ____ _ 08 (14) ___ consensus _________________ 5.2 __6.3 __5.0 __5.7__7.7 __5.3 ___ 35.2 ____ _ (16) _14 ___ DR (S) NO __________________9.8 __8.8 __1.2 __6.2 __6.4 __2.4 ___ 34.8 ____ _T-09 (15) ___ average 1981-2010 __________ 7.8 __7.0 __5.1 __5.0 __2.6 __6.4 ___ 33.9 ____ _ (19) _15 ___ CHRISBELL-NOTTHEWxMAN _ 10.0__6.8 __2.6 __6.4 __4.0 __3.9 ___ 33.7 ____ _ 16 _16 ___ MAPANTZ __________________ 5.2 __6.8 __1.9 __4.3 __6.4 __8.8 ___ 33.4 ____ _ 24 _17 ___ MULZY _____________________7.0 __8.6 __6.7 __0.9 __1.8 __8.2 ___ 33.2 ____ _ 22 _18 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE __________3.4 __3.3 __9.8_ 10.0 __3.6 __3.0 ___ 33.1 ____ _ 14 (19)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)__7.9 __8.3 __3.9 __3.4 __2.4 __6.4 ___ 32.3 ____ _ (20) _19 ___ SYED2878 __________________4.8 _ 10.0__3.8 __5.0 __2.2 __6.1 ___ 31.9 ____ _ 20 _20 ___ DAVEHSUG _________________1.0 __1.2 __9.1 __4.8 __7.5 __7.8 ___ 31.4 ____ _ 27 (notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.) Very close at the top of the annual scoring, Singularity edged ahead of Jonboy by just 0.1 with Polar Gael, Born from the Void and Norrance in close pursuit. I will update the alternate Hadley scoring table when they report their version.
  10. Scoring for May EWP contest The NCIC version is 48.8 mm. Rank _ Score _ Forecast _ Error __ Forecaster 1. _____10.0 ___ 48.0 __ -0.8 ___ GODBER.1 2. _____ 9.8 ___ 50.0 __ +1.2 ___ J10 3. _____ 9.6 ___ 50.1 __ +1.3 ___ POLAR GAEL 4. _____ 9.4 ___ 51.0 __ +2.2 ___ NORRANCE 5. _____ 9.2 ___ 45.0 __ -3.8 ___ B87 6. _____ 9.0 ___ 54.0 __ +5.2 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID T7 _____ 8.8 ___ 55.0 __ +6.2 ___ TIMMYTOUR, THE PIT, MAPANTZ 10. _____ 8 2 ___ 42.0 __ -6.6 ___ MULZY 11. _____ 8.0 ___ 56.0 __ +7.2 ___ SINGULARITY T12 ____ 7.8 ___ 41.0 __ -7.8 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE, DAVEHSUG T14 ____ 7.4 ___ 58.0 __ +9.2___ DAMI, REEF 16. _____7.0 ___ 39.0 __ -9.8 ___ LF1002 T17 ____ 6.8 ___ 60.0 __+11.2___ DIAGONALREDLINE, WEATHER-HISTORY (T19)___ 6.4 ___ 61.1 __+12.3___ average 1981-2010, average 1988-2017 19. ____ 6.3 ___ 35.0 __-13.8 ___ DANIEL* 20. _____6.1 ___ 63.0 __+14.2 ___ SYED2878 21. _____5.9 ___ 34.0 __-14.8 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST 22. _____5.7 ___ 64.0 __+15.2 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT 23. _____5.5 ___ 32.0 __-16.8 ___ ROGER J SMITH T24 ____ 5.3 ___ 68.0 __+19.2 ___ TJM14, STATIONARY FRONT, Consensus 26. _____ 5.1 ___ 68.0 __+19.2 ___ SEASIDE 60 (5.3 - 0.2) 27. _____ 4.7 ___ 68.8 __+20.0 ___ WEATHER26 28. _____ 4.5 ___ 69.0 __+20.2 ___ STARGAZER T29 _____4.3 ___ 70.0 __+21.2 ___ JEFF C, DON 31. _____ 3.9 ___ 70.8 __+22.0 ___ CHRISBELL-not-the-WEATHERMAN 32. _____ 3.7 ___ 71.0 __+22.2 ___ JONBOY 33. _____ 3.5 ___ 71.5 __+22.7 ___ LET IT SNOW! T34 _____3.0 ___ 72.0 __+23.2 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE (3.2 - 0.2) T34 _____3.0 ___ 72.1 __+23.3 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE 36. _____ 2.8 ___ 73.2 __+24.4 ___ DKEANE3 37. _____ 2.6 ___ 76.0 __+27.2 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER 38. _____ 2.4 ___ 77.7 __+28.9 ___ DR(S)NO 39. _____ 2.2 ___ 80.0 __+31.2 ___ DAVID SNOW 40. _____ 2.0 ___ 83.0 __+34.2 ___ BOBD29 T41 _____1.8 ___ 85.0 __+36.2 ___ SIMSHADY, IAPENNELL 43. _____ 1.4 ___ 86.0 __+37.2 ___ DOCTOR32 44. _____ 1.2 ___ 87.0 __+38.2 ___ PEGG24 45. _____ 1.0 ___ 95.0 __+46.2 ___ ALEXISJ9 46. _____ 0.8 ___ 97.0 __+48.2 ___ ROBBIE GARRETT 47. _____ 0.6 ___ 98.0 __+49.2 ___ STEWFOX 48. _____ 0.4 ___100.0__+51.2 ___ RELATIVISTIC 49. _____ 0.2 ___120.0__+71.2 ___ STEVE B 50. _____ 0.0 ___200.0__+151.2__ LETTUCING GUTTED ============================================================== Annual Scoring Update (Dec 2017 to May 2018) Rank __ Forecaster _________________Dec__Jan__Feb__Mar__Apr__May___TOTAL __ previous rank _01 ___ SINGULARITY ______________5.2 __7.2 __9.8 __7.7 __6.4 __8.0 ___ 44.3 ____ _ 03 _02 ___ JONBOY __________________ 9.2 __7.8 __6.4 __9.6 __7.5 __3.7 ___ 44.2 ____ _ 01 _03 ___ POLAR GAEL _______________4.6 __9.4 __8.6 __2.6 __8.2 __9.6 ___ 43.0 ____ _ 06 _04 ___ BORN FROM THE VOID ______6.4 __9.8 __3.5 __5.7 __7.5 __9.0 ___ 41.9 ____ _ 07 _05 ___ NORRANCE ________________7.0 __2.2 __8.4 __9.3 __5.4 __9.4 ___ 41.7 ____ _T-11 _06 ___ J10 _______________________4.4 __7.6 __0.7 __8.3 __9.2 __9.8 ___ 40.0 ____ _ 13 _07 ___ STEWFOX _________________ 7.0 __9.4 __4.0 __8.9 __8.2 __0.6 ___ 38.1 ____ _ 02 _08___ SEASIDE 60 ________________ 5.8 __4.5 __4.8 __8.8 __8.4 __ 5.1 ___ 37.4 ____ _ T-11 _09 ___ DON ______________________ 1.8 __6.1 __7.4 __8.3 __8.8 __4.3 ___ 36.7 ____ _T-09 _10 ___ GODBER.1 _________________ 2.4 __7.4 __5.5 __3.5 __7.5 _10.0 ___ 36.1 ____ _ 19 _11 ___ SIMSHADY _________________ 8.2 __8.4 __0.4 __7.2 __9.8 __1.8 ___ 35.8 ____ _ 05 _12 ___ STEVE B ___________________7.4 __8.2 __3.5 __8.8 __7.5 __0.2 ___ 35.6 ____ _ 04 _13 ___ DKEANE3 __________________ 7.2 __7.6 __5.2 __9.1 __3.6 __2.8 ___ 35.5 ____ _ 08 (14) ___ consensus _________________ 5.2 __6.3 __5.0 __5.7__7.7 __5.3 ___ 35.2 ____ _ (16) _14 ___ DR (S) NO __________________9.8 __8.8 __1.2 __6.2 __6.4 __2.4 ___ 34.8 ____ _T-09 (15) ___ average 1981-2010 __________ 7.8 __7.0 __5.1 __5.0 __2.6 __6.4 ___ 33.9 ____ _ (19) _15 ___ CHRISBELL-NOTTHEWxMAN _ 10.0__6.8 __2.6 __6.4 __4.0 __3.9 ___ 33.7 ____ _ 16 _16 ___ MAPANTZ __________________ 5.2 __6.8 __1.9 __4.3 __6.4 __8.8 ___ 33.4 ____ _ 24 _17 ___ MULZY _____________________7.0 __8.6 __6.7 __0.9 __1.8 __8.2 ___ 33.2 ____ _ 22 _18 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE __________3.4 __3.3 __9.8_ 10.0 __3.6 __3.0 ___ 33.1 ____ _ 14 (19)___ average 1988-2017 (Dec 87-16)__7.9 __8.3 __3.9 __3.4 __2.4 __6.4 ___ 32.3 ____ _ (20) _19 ___ SYED2878 __________________4.8 _ 10.0__3.8 __5.0 __2.2 __6.1 ___ 31.9 ____ _ 20 _20 ___ DAVEHSUG _________________1.0 __1.2 __9.1 __4.8 __7.5 __7.8 ___ 31.4 ____ _ 27 _21 ___ BOBD29 ____________________3.2 __7.0 __6.5 __5.9 __5.6 __2.0 ___ 30.2 ____ _ 18 _22 ___ REEF ______________________ 9.0 __5.3 __2.8 __3.8 __1.8 __7.4 ___ 30.1 ____ _ 29 _23 ___ VIZZY2004 __________________9.0 __9.0 __8.9 __2.6 __0.5 __--- ___ 30.0 ____ _ 15 _24 ___ PEGG24 ____________________8.0 __5.9 __0.7 __6.2 __7.5 __1.2 ___ 29.5 ____ _ 17 _25 ___ THE_PIT ____________________6.0 __1.2 __7.4 __1.4 __3.8 __8.8 ___ 28.6 ____ _ 36 T26 ___ DANIEL* ____________________3.8 __5.9 __4.7 __4.3 __3.4 __6.3 ___ 28.4 ____ _ 32 T26 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY _________ 0.6 __3.3 __5.9 __2.6 __9.2 __6.8 ___ 28.4 ____ _ 33 _28 ___ ROGER J SMITH _____________0.2 __1.8 __8.1 __9.8 __2.7 __5.5 ___ 28.1 ____ _ 30 _29 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE ____________4.4 __1.0 __8.1 __1.6 __9.8 __3.0 ___ 27.9 ____ _ 23 T30 ___ STARGAZER ________________ 1.4 __9.4 __2.4 __7.1 __2.7 __4.5 ___ 27.5 ____ _ 28 T30 ___ TIMMYTOUR ________________ 9.4 __0.2 __7.4 __1.7 __ ---- __8.8 ___ 27.5 ____ _ 41 T32 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE ________2.0 __2.4 __8.7 __4.5 __2.0 __7.8 ___ 27.4 ____ _ 37 T32 ___ DAVID SNOW________________ 2.2 __3.3 __8.6 __5.7 __5.4 __2.2 ___ 27.4 ____ _ 21 _34 ___ DAMI _______________________5.4 __3.9 __0.9 __5.7 __1.8 __7.4 ___ 25.1 ____ _ 42 _35 ___ KIRKCALDY WEATHER ________---- __ ---- __3.5 __8.8 _10.0__2.6 ___ 24.9 ____ _ 31 _36 ___ RELATIVISTIC _______________ 8.4 __2.2 __7.4 __1.2 __4.7 __0.4 ___ 24.3 ____ _ 26 _37 ___ WEATHER 26 _______________ ---- __4.7 __4.3 __9.5 __0.9 __4.7 ___ 24.1 ____ _T-38 _38 ___ CHRIS. R ___________________ 6.2 __0.6 __9.3 __7.9 __---- __---- ___ 24.0 ____ _ 25 _39 __ JEFF C ______________________7.8 __4.1 __1.1 __3.3 __3.1 __4.3 ___ 23.7 ____ _T-38 _40 ___ LET IT SNOW ! _______________---- __----__ 8.8 __6.5 __4.7 __3.5 ___ 23.5 ____ _T-34 _41 ___ DIAGONAL RED LINE _________ ---- __---- __2.1 __6.9 __6.4 __6.8 ___ 22.2 ____ _ 44 _42 ___ DOCTOR32 _________________ 1.6 __3.9 __6.4 __5.0 __3.1 __1.4 ___ 21.4 ____ _T-34 _43 ___ STATIONARY FRONT _________ 1.2 __4.9 __6.4 __2.6 __0.7 __5.3 ___ 21.1 ____ _ 43 _44 ___ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER ____3.6 __0.8 __1.6 __3.3 __9.8 __ ----___ 19.1 ____ _ 40 _45 ___ GREAT PLUM ________________---- __---- __7.4 __7.4 __ ---- __---- ___ 14.8 ____ _ 45 _46 ___ ED STONE __________________ 4.4 __1.6 __5.3 __1.2 __1.1 __ --- ___ 13.6 ____ _ 46 _47 ___ FOZFOSTER _________________---- __5.3 __4.3 __3.8 __---- __---- ___ 13.4 ____ _ 47 _48 ___ BLAST FROM THE PAST _______0.8 __0.0 __3.5 __2.6 __---- __5.9 ___ 12.8 ____ _T-58 _49 ___ RAIN RAIN RAIN ______________---- __2.4 _ 10.0__---- __---- __---- ___ 12.4 ____ _ 48 _50 ___ ALEXISJ9 ____________________2.8 __5.5 __1.9 __---- __0.2 __1.0 ___ 11.4 ____ _ 49 _51 ___ TERMINAL MORAINE __________ 9.6 __---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- ___ 9.6 ____ _ 50 _52 ___ NORTHWEST SNOW ___________---- __---- __9.5 __---- __---- __ ---- ___ 9.5 ____ _ 51 _53 ___ CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE _________---- __---- __---- __0.7 __ 8.6 __---- ___ 9.3 ____ _ 52 _54 ___ B87 ________________________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __9.2 ___ 9.2 ____ _ --- _55 ___ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS _ 8.6 __---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- ___ 8.6 ____ _ 53 _56 ___ LETTERBOXER _______________---- __ ---- __3.6 __ ---- __4.9 __---- ___ 8.5 ____ _ 54 _57 ___ IAPENNELL __________________ ---- __6.3 __---- __---- __ ---- __1.8 ___ 8.1 ____ _T-60 T58 ___ BOOFERKING ________________ 3.0 __4.7 __---- __ ---- __---- __---- ___ 7.7 ____ _T-55 T58 ___ CORAM ______________________---- __---- __---- __7.7 __ ---- __---- ___ 7.7 ____ _T-55 _60 ___ V FOR VERY COLD ____________ 7.6 __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 7.6 ____ _ 57 _61 ___ LF1002 ______________________---- __---- __---- __ ---- __ ---- _ 7.0 ___ 7.0 ____ _ --- _62 ___ RICEY076 ____________________ ---- __---- __---- __6.9 __ ---- __---- ___ 6.9 ____ _T-58 _63___ MOORLANDER ________________ 5.8 __---- __---- __0.5 __ ---- __---- ___ 6.3 ____ _T-60 _64 ___ JAMES M _____________________---- __---- __5.9 __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 5.9 ____ _ 62 _65 ___ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT __________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __5.7 ___ 5.7 ____ _ --- _66 ___ TJM14 ______________________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __5.3 ___ 5.3 ____ _ --- _67 ___ CASTELLANUS80 _____________ ---- __2.8 __2.3 __ ---- __ ---- __---- ___ 5.1 ____ _ 63 T68 ___ ROSS90 _____________________ ---- __---- __5.0 __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 5.0 ____ _T-64 T68 ___ BACKTRACK__________________---- __---- __---- __5.0 __ ---- __---- ___ 5.0 ____ _T-64 _70 ___ THUNDERSNOW DAYS _________---- __---- __4.5 __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 4.5 ____ _ 66 _71 ___ HIGH GROUND BIRMINGHAM ___ ---- __---- __---- __4.3 __ ---- __---- ___ 4.3 ____ _ 67 _72 ___ MARK NEAL __________________---- __---- __---- __2.9 __ ---- __---- ___ 2.9 ____ _ 68 _73 ___ MATT TARRANT _______________---- __---- __---- __2.8 __ ---- __---- ___ 2.8 ____ _ 69 _74 ___ MORE SNOW _________________2.6 __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 2.6 ____ _ 70 _75 ___ SKY FULL ____________________---- __---- __1.2 __---- __ ---- __---- ___ 1.2 ____ _ 71 _76 ___ ROBBIE GARRETT ____________ ---- __---- __---- __---- __ ---- __0.8 ___ 0.8 ____ _ --- T77 ___ WEIRPIG ____________________ 0.4 __---- __----- __----__ ---- __---- ___ 0.4 ____ _T-72 T77 ___ COLDEST WINTER ____________ ---- __---- __---- __ 0.4 __---- __---- ___ 0.4 ____ _T-72 T79 ___ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 _____---- __---- __0.2 __----__ ---- __---- ___ 0.2 ____ _T-74 T79 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED __________ 0.0 __0.0 __0.0 __0.2 __0.0 __0.0 ___ 0.2 ____ _T-74 _81 ___ DEEP SNOW PLEASE __________ ---- __---- __---- __0.0 __ ---- __---- ___ 0.0 ____ _ 76 _____________________________________________________________________________ (notes on ranking ... normals and consensus are scored as if they were participants, but lower ranking forecasters are not ranked lower as a result, so those rankings are shown in brackets.)
  11. June contest tables of entries posted here: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=9 consensus values are 15.8 C and 58.0 mm. ... still waiting for May EWP but have the scoring table ready to go from 39.5 mm, hoping it will be close to that value so I don't have much editing to do. ...
  12. Table of entries for CET forecast contest June 2018 ________________________________________________ 20.5 __ LETTUCING GUTTED (5) 18.2 __ _ _ _ warmest June 1846 17.7 __ ROGER J SMITH (49) 17.4 __ VIRTUALSPHERE (22) 17.0 __ ROBBIE GARRETT (28) 16.8 __ CHRISBELL-not-the-WEATHERMAN (20), DOCTOR32 (54), DUNCAN McALISTER (60*) 16.7 __ TJM14 (10) 16.6 __ BOBD29 (16), ED STONE (35) 16.5 __ POLAR GAEL (12), STEVE B (37), THE PIT (48) 16.4 __ ALEXISJ9 (30) 16.3 __ OPTIMUS PRIME (15), BORN FROM THE VOID (38), PROLONGED SNOW LOVER (58*) 16.2 __ LET IT SNOW! (1), PEGG24 (29), DAVID SNOW (51), SEASIDE 60 (61*) 16.1 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER (17), NORRANCE (45), MAN WITH BEARD (52) 16.0 __ DANCERWITHWINGS (14), MARK BAYLEY (34), GAEL_FORCE (44), TIMMYTOUR (59*) 15.9 __ SINGULARITY (50), DAMIANSLAW (53), DON (55) 15.8 __ RADIATING DENDRITE (6), B87 (21), THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS (26), COLDEST WINTER (39) __________ DANIEL* (62*) ___ consensus ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ 15.7 __ REEF (46), METALTRON (57) 15.6 __ MP-R (4), CHEESEPUFFSCOTT (11), STEWFOX (24) 15.5 __ SUMMER BLIZZARD (18), DR(S)NO (23), J10 (32), MULZY (47), GODBER.1 (56), MAPANTZ (64**) 15.4 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE (41) 15.3 __ STARGAZER (27) 15.2 __ STATIONARY FRONT (13), SUNDOG (40) 15.1 __ SNOWRAY (19), WEATHER-HISTORY (42) 15.0 __ DKEANE3 (31) 14.9 __ DAMI (8), SUMMER SUN (25) 14.8 __ JEFF C (3) 14.7 __ WEATHER26 (7) 14.6 __ JONBOY (43) ... ... ... average for 1988-2017 14.5 __ DIAGONALREDLINE (9), SYED2878 (33), RELATIVISTIC (36) ____ ____ DAVEHSUG (63**) ... ... ... average for 1981-2010 14.1 __ I REMEMBER ATLANTIC 252 (2) 11.5 __ _ _ _ coldest June 1675 ======================================================== Table of entries for June 2018 EWP contest ______________________________________ 200.0 __ LETTUCING GUTTED 157.8 __ _ _ _ wettest (2012) 80.0 __ RELATIVISTIC, JONBOY, GODBER.1 75.0 __ WEATHER-HISTORY 73.0 __ ED STONE, NORRANCE 71.0 __ DAVEHSUG (+2d) 70.0 __ VIRTUALSPHERE, BORN FROM THE VOID 69.9 __ DKEANE3 67.5 __ COLDEST WINTER 67.0 __ DR(S)NO 66.2 __ _ _ _ average 1988-2017 65.0 __ DAMI, ALEXISJ9, REEF 64.5 __ SYED2878 64.1 __ _ _ _ average 1981-2010 61.0 __ PROLONGED SNOW LOVER (+1d) 60.0 __ ROBBIE GARRETT, J10, MULZY, THE PIT 59.0 __ MAPANTZ (+2d) 58.0 __ JEFF C, PEGG-24, STEVE B, DOCTOR32, ... ... consensus ... 57.4 __ ROGER J SMITH 56.0 __ SINGULARITY 53.0 __ TJM14 52.0 __ SEASIDE 60 (+1d) 51.0 __ STARGAZER, TIMMYTOUR (+1d) 50.0 __ DON 49.0 __ DAVID SNOW 46.2 __ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS 46.0 __ STATIONARY FRONT 45.6 __ KIRKCALDY WEATHER 45.0 __ MP-R 44.0 __ WEATHER26, STEWFOX 42.0 __ POLAR GAEL 40.0 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE 39.0 __ BOBD29 37.0 __ CHEESEPUFFSCOTT 34.5 __ CHRISBELL-not-the-WEATHERMAN 27.0 __ RADIATING DENDRITE 23.0 __ LET IT SNOW! 22.0 __ DIAGONAL RED LINE 18.0 __ B87 04.0 __ _ _ _ driest June 1925 ____________________________________ 64 entries in CET and 50 in EWP
  13. Update on CET scoring for consensus and two recent normals ___ Past months ____ ____________DEC _________________________ JAN ________________________ FEB "Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) 1987-2016*__ +0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 (88-17)>--0.6 __66.7 - 74.1 _ 15 to 19 ______ +1.9 _ 31.2 - 35.1 _ 51 to 54 1981-2010 __ --0.2 __ 89.4 - 93.4 __ 6 to 9 ______ --0.9 __ 50.0 - 55.6 _ 25 to 28 ______ +1.5 _ 48.1 - 49.4 _ 40 to 41 Consensus __--0.6 __ 71.0 - 74.9 __20 to 23 _____--0.9 __ 50.0 -55.6 _ 25 to 28 _______+1.1 _ 57.1 - 58.4 _ 33 to 34 * becomes 1988-2017 from JAN onward. ____________ MAR ___________________________________ APR ________________ "Forecaster" _ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ Error _ Pts (range) _ rank (range) __ 1988-2017 __ +1.9 __ 20.8 - 22.1 __ 60 to 61 ____ --1.1 __ 72.2--72,2 __ 18 to 18 1981-2010 __ +1.7 __ 26.1 - 26.1 __ 57 to 57 ____ --1.3 __ 57.4--65.6 __ 22 to 27 Consensus __--0.3 __ 78.9 - 85.5 __12 to 17 ____ --1.4 __ 50.8--55.8 __ 28 to 31 ________ Current Month __ May 2018 ________________ Contest year averages to date (6 mo)___ "Forecaster" _May Error_ May Points (range)_rank (range) // mean abs error_mean points_mean rank 1988-2017 ___ --1.3 _____ 28.6 - 33.3 ____ 43 to 46 ________ 1.17 _____ 51.8 - 55.2 __ 32 to 35 1981-2010 ___ --1.5 _____ 19.1 - 20.6 ____ 51 to 52 ________ 1.18 _____ 48.4 - 51.8 __ 34 to 36 Consensus ___--1.0 _____ 46.1 - 54.0 ____ 30 to 35 ________ 0.87 _____ 59.0 - 64.1 __ 25 to 28 ___________________________________________________________________________ Our consensus continues to edge ahead further after its better performance than the two normals in May, although still ranking only middle of the pack this year, compared to the better rankings and point totals that all three of the robotic forecasters achieved in the 2016-17 competition year. However it should be noted that our consensus only beat the two normals in three* out of six months so far (Feb, Mar, May). *(consensus tied 1981-2010 in January). The average error of consensus (not absolute) is -0.52 deg, meaning that on average, our forecasts have been 0.52 degrees below actual values, but the larger positive errors of the normals in cold months Feb and Mar leaves them with average errors that are smaller (+0.13 for 1988-2017 and -0.12 for 1981-2010).
  14. 13.2 has now been confirmed in all the tables so I guess they rounded down, must have been like 13.249 or something. This is the first time May has had consecutive similar CET values (2017, 2018) since 2003-04 both hit 12.1. Before that, it was 1924-25 hitting 11.6. And before that 1846-47 were both 12.3. Then it's all the way back to 1717-18 for twin 11.0, before that more frequent as most of the values are multiples of 0.5 in the Maunder period.
  15. 1981-2010 Daily and Cumulative Normals. plus Daily Extremes for June (1772-2017) _________________________________________________________________________ Date __ CET __ cum CET __ MAX __________ MIN 01 ____ 13.5 ___ 13.5 _____ 20.9 (1781) ____ 7.7 (1802&1962) 02 ____ 13.8 ___ 13.7 _____ 22.3 (1947) ____ 7.6 (1991) 03 ____ 13.4 ___ 13.6 _____ 23.0 (1947) ____ 7.9 (1773) 04 ____ 13.2 ___ 13.5 _____ 20.3 (1982) ____ 8.0 (1871&1991) 05 ____ 13.3 ___ 13.4 _____ 21.3 (1982) ____ 8.2 (1991) 06 ____ 13.7 ___ 13.5 _____ 22.5 (1950) ____ 8.4 (1909) 07 ____ 14.0 ___ 13.6 _____ 21.6 (1846) ____ 8.6 (1814) 08 ____ 13.9 ___ 13.6 _____ 20.4 (1940) ____ 8.6 (1881&1914) 09 ____ 14.0 ___ 13.6 _____ 20.9 (1970) ____ 7.3 (1816) 10 ____ 14.3 ___ 13.7 _____ 21.5 (1970) ____ 8.2 (1821) 11 ____ 13.6 ___ 13.7 _____ 21.0 (1970) ____ 8.0 (1777) 12 ____ 13.9 ___ 13.7 _____ 20.8 (2006) ____ 8.6 (1841) 13 ____ 14.0 ___ 13.7 ____ 20.5 (1818,1989) __ 8.5 (1901) 14 ____ 14.4 ___ 13.8 _____ 19.4 (1814) ____ 7.9 (1903) 15 ____ 14.2 ___ 13.8 _____ 22.9 (1858) ____ 8.1 (1850) 16 ____ 14.8 ___ 13.9 ____20.7 (1858,1896) __ 9.6 (1869) 17 ____ 15.0 ___ 13.9 _____ 21.4 (1917) ____ 9.1 (1928) 18 ____ 14.8 ___ 14.0 _____ 21.2 (2005) ____ 8.1 (1855) 19 ____ 15.2 ___ 14.1 _____ 22.1 (2005) ____ 7.3 (1795) 20 ____ 15.1 ___ 14.1 _____ 21.7 (1846) ____ 9.0 (1795&1964) 21 ____ 14.4 ___ 14.1 _____ 22.7 (1817) ____ 9.8 (1903) 22 ____ 14.6 ___ 14.1 _____ 22.3 (1941) ____ 9.0 (1823) 23 ____ 14.8 ___ 14.2 _____ 21.8 (1935) ____ 9.4 (1823) 24 ____ 14.9 ___ 14.2 _____ 22.0 (1935) ___ 10.1 (1784) 25 ____ 15.3 ___ 14.2 _____ 21.6 (1935) ____ 8.7 (1835) 26 ____ 15.3 ___ 14.3 _____ 22.3 (1976) ____ 9.7 (1835) 27 ____ 15.6 ___ 14.3 _____ 22.8 (1826) ___ 10.2 (1862) 28 ____ 15.6 ___ 14.4 _____ 22.6 (1976) ____ 9.4 (1812) 29 ____ 16.0 ___ 14.4 _____ 22.4 (1976) ____ 9.7 (1839) 30 ____ 15.8 ___ 14.5 _____ 22.1 (1976) ____ 9.1 (1839)
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