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Roger J Smith

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Roger J Smith last won the day on October 13 2018

Roger J Smith had the most liked content!

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    New Denver BC Canada
  • Interests
    forecast research on a global scale, thus an interest in UK weather as part of a larger research program that concentrates mainly on severe weather in North America.

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  1. These are the forecasts likely to get the top points this month: Polar Gael (14) ________ 7.0 syed2878 (26) _________ 7.0 Optimus Prime (30) _____ 6.9 DiagonalRedLine (24) ___ 6.5 (numbers in brackets are order of entry). LG (10.0) could go as high as 5th if the outcome is 8.0, as 5.9 is the next highest forecast (Timmytour). But to get to 8.0 from yesterday's 6.5 would require an average of 13.5 and it's mid-March before that's even a record high.
  2. Wow, I hadn't looked in here until today ... the more recent posts I can see general agreement with, the recent trends are self-evident although we were being told back around 2005-06 that we would never see snow again nor would any months ever dip below 3 C (a certain "Stratos Ferric" was well known for these opinions here), opinions which to be fair might have looked a lot less ridiculous had December 2010 shown up only on the GFS and not in reality (this year we only got as far as the GFS). The earlier discussions about large-scale engineering of the atmosphere to produce desired results gets into questions about (a) cost effectiveness, (b) actual need for these changes, and (c) scientific validity of the theories of cause and effect (in other words, would the high walls and other proposals actually create the changes desired, or something else, or nothing much at all?). I will note in passing that while Donald Trump might never build such a wall to slow down the subtropical jet stream, an even greater force built quite an impressive wall across southern Asia and the weather in Japan seems to be quite subtropical most of the time. Jet streams have a way of working around or over these barriers. But I can't dismiss the concepts presented out of hand because there is no way to know what the real effect of these projects would be, other than wrecking the view for selected unlucky towns in the desert southwest. Other posts suggest the onset of a period of more intense stormy weather due to global warming. This has become one of the big talking points of the climate change movement, aware as they have become that the general public either feel skeptical about the magnitude of warming or secretly wish it would warm up (believe me, in Canada, there is no shortage of this sentiment). But in reality the trends seem to be in the opposite direction. This warming climate seems a bit on the bland side compared to the 20th century or the colder 19th century. I recently finished a study of pressures over the Irish Sea from a data set derived from the NOAA reanalysis. This covers the period from 1851 to 2014 but I don't think there have been lower pressures than the ten lowest in that interval since Darwin (Feb 2014). The twelve lowest pressures were recorded in these years (in order) -- 1951, 1884, 1989, 1886, 1905, 1877, 1966, 1929, 1949, 1915, 2014 and 1876. If the study had extended back to 1839 that would have joined the list, possibly in first place. There is no sign in that list of any tendency towards increased frequency of low pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles. The mid-point of the study interval is 1932 and by then, seven of the twelve had occurred. The interval from 1876 to 1886 produced four, and that was a time of generally cold winters (although the specific dates of the strong lows fell in less cold periods than those famous cold winters such as 1878-79 and 1880-81). Anyone interested in seeing the data set can find it posted in my research thread in the Science sub-forum. I posted it in the last week so it should be near top of the menu there (and in the last post of the thread until somebody comments on it). This matches what I have read from seasoned weather watchers on various forums, that the frequency of very strong winds seems to be decreasing in recent years. Many different people whose opinions I trust have commented that there were more frequent severe wind storms in the 1980s and 1990s than we are seeing in this recent decade. And when you think about the list of most damaging wind storms in history around this region, most of the obvious candidates are well back in the past, a few like 1987 or 1990 not so far back, but off the top of my head I would say 1703, 1839, 1884, 1886, 1903, 1953 are among the leaders. This warming climate may prove to be more benign than malevolent. We've heard a lot about increasing frequency of hurricanes and tornadoes as well, but actual statistics seem to point in the other direction over the past decade. Anecdotally of course, there is always the one event or season but there again, we've seen worse in the distant past. The very worst hurricane season was probably 1780 and the worst tornado event was in 1925 (second worst in 1974). Perhaps if we are going into a long-term solar downturn we might be wise to thank our lucky stars that we were here to take the edge off LIA-2. And if you want snow, try Buffalo. There's a high vacancy rate in their hotels during the winter and their snowfall to date is 102" but if that's no good for you, may I recommend Marquette, a lovely town in northern Michigan on the shores of Lake Superior, currently dealing with four feet on the ground, and expecting two more this weekend. Snow to date, 184". (seasonal average 200", so probably on the way to an above-normal season). Personally, I continue to think that this recent climate "change" is more of a return to high variability temperature signals that were associated with the years around 1770 to 1800 and perhaps the 1970s into early 1980s. There is a human component to it, more like icing on the cake that would have existed without us being here at all. And I don't buy into theories that suggest we are altering the large-scale patterns. Just like the urban heat island may be strong locally but not really disruptive of weather patterns, our greenhouse gas emissions are just warming up the existing and inevitable weather patterns, and if one studies the data carefully, that warming is mostly happening in the overnight hours. I don't think it has large implications for positions of storm tracks, jet streams or Ferrel cells for that matter. These are where they might have been, had squirrels been the dominant life form on our planet, but those squirrels would have faced chillier nights, still they have fur and we don't, in most cases.
  3. These are the only existing spells of 3 or more consecutive days that reached 10.0 C mean daily CET ... and to fill out the list I added one that began in January and another that ended on 1st of March, in a leap year. 4 _ 23-26 Feb 1846 (11.3, 11.4, 10.2, 10.0 followed by 9.8, 11.1 so five in six days and 9.8 or higher for six). 4 _ 30 Jan - 2 Feb 1923 (10.0, 10.1, 11.4, 11.0 followed by 9.7 so 9.7 or higher for five days). 4 _ 11-14 Feb 1998 (10.5, 11.4, 12.0, 10.1 followed by 9.8, 9.7, so 9.7 or higher for six 11th-16th). 4 _ 2-5 Feb 2004 (10.9, 12.2, 12.8, 11.8) included the two warmest February days 3rd-4th. 3 _ 9-11 Feb 1899 (10.5, 12.0, 10.2). 3 _ 28 Feb - 1 March 1960 (11.3, 12.0, 10.3). Not quite three days but very close ... 1779 may have been the warmest February but its best three day interval (26th-28th) ran only 10.3, 9.9 and 9.4. In fact there were only three days in that month reaching 10.0 or higher. There were many in the 8s and 9s though. 1801 had a four-day run 3rd to 6th Feb of 9.9, 10.9, 10.2 and 9.7. 1834 exceeded 10 on last two days (27th-28th) and also on 2nd, 4th, 5th, 8th and 9th of March. The lowest daily mean in that interval (all in March though) was 8.2. It was 9.7 on 1st of March in that run. 1869 managed two 3rd-4th and had four 10+ days in eight days (3rd to 10th) and six days (3rd-8th) that were all 9.5 or warmer (10.3, 10.7, 9.5, 9.8, 10.5, 9.6; then 8.4 on 9th and 10.4 on 10th). It had a running CET above 8 for most of the month and finished second warmest to 1779. 1903 just missed from 8th to 10th Feb with 11.4, 11.2 and 9.8. 1912 had 9.9 on 27th then 11.1 and 10.5 on 28th-29th, but first of March did not continue above 9.0. 1914 started the month with 10.0, 9.8 and 10.1 after a 9.8 on 31st January. 1939 had a spell from 9-12 Feb of 9.8, 10.2, 11.4, 9.2. 1945 had four days at 10 or higher out of ten from 18th to 27th Feb, the interval between first and last two days that set that mark was not particularly mild. 1959 started a run on 27th with 10.1, 11.4 but the first of March was 9.5 ending that borderline case. 1990 came close with 9.8, 11.5, 10.9 from 22nd to 24th, it was 11.3 on 20th so three in five days there. 2011 was also very close 5th to 7th with 10.3, 10.1 and 9.8. 2017 from 20th to 22nd ran 10.7, 9.9 and 10.0. ___________________________________________________ So we'll see how 2019 does against that group of February warm spells.
  4. Ed Stone must be a happy chappie after that death bed conversion he made (2.7 to 5.7, just like the month itself).
  5. Whatever value the CET reaches this month, it is likely to be the warmest to follow a subzero first day. In the past 247 years with daily data (1772 to 2018), 39 years had a zero or colder first day. The warmest February CET to follow such a start was 1992 which started at -0.1 and reached 5.4 C at end of the month. Second place was 1911 which began with a -2.0 and ended at 4.8 C. Third was 1976 which got from -0.7 to 4.5 at end of the month. The coldest starts to any Februaries that exceeded 6.0 were 0.5 in 1871 (to 6.1) and 0.8 in 1848 (also to 6.1). Most of the really mild Februaries were quite mild to start and all the way through.
  6. One of the odd things about warmest February 1779 is that it no longer holds any of the 28 daily records, it held on to 10.0 (13th) until that was obliterated by 12.0 in 1998. Warmest January 1916 also has no daily records. On the other side of the ledger, July 1948 which set three daily records including the warmest day of all, still finished below normal. So if Feb 2019 manages to finish around 7 as appears likely, then the recent winter that this most resembles would be 1994-95 when the CET values were 6.4, 4.8 and 6.5, tied with 2016-17 which had 6.0, 4.0 and 6.1. These are the other close analogues by total departure from (6.9, 4.0, 7.0). Winter ______ Dec _ Jan _ Feb ___ Total difference (abs) 1738-39 _____ 6.1 _ 4.0 _ 6.8 ____ 1.0 1789-90 _____ 6.1 _ 4.3 _ 6.6 ____ 1.5 1733-34 _____ 7.6 _ 4.3 _ 6.4 ____ 1.6 1994-95 _____ 6.4 _ 4.8 _ 6.5 ____ 1.8 2016-17 _____ 6.0 _ 4.0 _ 6.1 ____ 1.8 1821-22 _____ 6.4 _ 4.7 _ 6.3 ____ 1.9 1942-43 _____ 6.7 _ 4.9 _ 6.1 ____ 2.0 1913-14 _____ 5.1 _ 3.7 _ 6.8 ____ 2.3 (Dec is most of the differential here) 1868-69 _____ 7.2 _ 5.6 _ 7.5 ____ 2.4* 1749-50 _____ 4.7 _ 4.0 _ 6.7 ____ 2.5 (Dec is most of the differential here) 1862-63 _____ 6.5 _ 4.9 _ 5.8 ____ 2.5 ______________________________________ *This value moves up the table by a relative 0.2 deg for each 0.1 that Feb 2019 exceeds 7.0. It can go as high as second for 7.5 or higher but cannot catch the leader 1738-39. It falls to last place for a 6.9 finish and would be replaced by other winters for 6.8 or lower.
  7. March CET averages and extremes 15.1 ... warmest March daily mean (30th, 2017) 14.7 ... previous warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777) 9.2 ... Warmest March (1957) 9.1 ... 2nd warmest March (1938) 8.7 ... 3rd warmest March (2017) 8.4 ... 4th warmest March (1997) 8.3 ... 5th warmest March (1948,1990, 2012) 8.2 ... 8th warmest March and warmest before 20th century (1750, tied with 1961) 7.9 ...1981, 1991, 1998 7.7 ...1994 7.6 ... 2000, 2002, 2014 7.5 ... 1989, 1992, 2003 7.4 ... 1999 7.2 ... 2005, 2007 7.0 ... 2009 6.8 ... mean of 1989-2018 6.7 ... 1993, 2011 and mean of 1991-2018 6.6 ... mean of 1981-2010 6.5 ... 2004 and mean of 21st century (2001-2018) 6.4 ... 1983, 1988, 2015 6.3 ... mean of 1971-2000 6.1 ... 1982, 2008, 2010 5.8 ... mean of 20th century (1901-2000) and 2016 5.7 ... mean of 1961-1990 5.6 ... 1995 5.34... mean of all 360 years (1659-2018) 5.2 ... mean of 19th century (1801-1900) and 2001 5.0 ... mean of 18th century (1701-1800) 4.9 ... 1986, 2006, 2018 4.7 ... 1984, 1985 4.6 ... mean of (CET portion of) 17th century (1659-1700) 4.5 ... 1996 4.1 ... 1987 2.8 ... 1962 ... Coldest March of 20th century 2.7 ... 2013 ... Coldest March since 1892 ... tied with 1892 and 1784 joint 12th coldest March 1.8 ... 3rd coldest March (1748) 1.2 ... 2nd coldest March (1785) 1.0 ... Coldest March (1674) 1.0 ... Mean of last ten days of March 2013 (22nd-31st) 0.6 ... Mean of the five days 22nd-26th March 2013 -3.8 ... daily record set last year on 1st (2018) -3.9 ... Coldest March daily mean in last 53 yrs (3rd, 1965) -6.5 ... Coldest March daily mean (13th, 1845) Enter your forecast by the end of Thursday, 28 Feb to avoid time penalties, or by the end of Sunday 3rd of March with time penalties but before the absolute deadline. ____________________________________________________________ Optional March 2018 EWP forecast contest Predict the March England and Wales average rainfall in mm, verification this contest year is from Hadley EWP and all data in the following table are from the Hadley records which run from 1766 to 2018. The deadline information is the same as above, 0.2 points (of a possible 10.0) are deducted for each day late. 177.5 __ maximum (1947) 160.4 __ maximum since 1981 (was 1981) 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010 64.3 __ mean 1989-2018 22.3 __ minimum since 1981 (2011) (20th lowest 1766-2017) 05.6 __ minimum (1781) ________________________________________________________ Last year recorded 115.1 mm in March, the wettest since 1981. You can enter both contests in the same post, and good luck.
  8. The daily records are always posted in the CET threads on the first but here's the portion from now to end of month (excluding 29th, there's one record that's safe anyway). DATE __ Record high __ record low _________ 1981-2010 (cum) _____ highest and lowest running CET 17 Feb ... 10.7 (1878) ... -7.1 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.7 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.0 (1895) 18 Feb ... 11.7 (1945) ... -3.9 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.6 (1869) ... ... ... -3.8 (1895) 19 Feb ... 10.6 (1893) ... -5.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.4 (1869) ... ... ... -3.6 (1895) 20 Feb ... 11.3 (1990) ... -6.6 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.3 (1869) ... ... ... -3.4 (1895) 21 Feb ... 10.6 (1813) ... -4.7 (1810) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.2 (1869) ... ... ... -3.2 (1895) 22 Feb ... 10.7 (1953) ... -3.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1869) ... ... ... -3.0 (1855) 23 Feb ... 11.7 (2012) ... -3.5 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 ..... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.9 (1855) 24 Feb ... 11.4 (1846) ... -6.7 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779) ... ... ... -2.6 (1855) 25 Feb ... 11.0 (1922) ... -5.1 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.6 (1779&1869) ..-2.3 (1855&1895) 26 Feb ... 11.2 (1882) ... -4.7 (1783) ... ... ... ... ... 4.9 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.1 (1855&1895&1947) 27 Feb ... 11.5 (1828) ... -2.8 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.8 (1779) ... ... ... -2.0 (1855&1895&1947) 28 Feb ... 11.4 (1959) ... -3.8 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 5.2 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1779) ... ... ... -1.9 (1947) ________________________________________________ The highest daily value in February overall is 12.8 (4th, 2004). Somewhat surprisingly, any days that have reached 12.0 aside from 29th (1960) were in the first half of the month. 1899, 1998 and 2004 had them.
  9. February is the third longest stretch without a daily record high in the CET series (back to 2012 when a daily high was last established). June goes back to 2006 and August had a tie in 2008, a full record last set there in 2003. The other months have all been more recent (Jan 2016, Mar 2017, Apr 2018, May 2018, July 2018, Sep 2016, Oct 2018, Nov 2015 and Dec 2015).
  10. Roger J Smith

    Roger Smith's developing LRF model

    Upload of recent research file, SLP over Irish Sea (54N 6W) for later discussion. Just trying the upload to see if my rather large file will be workable here. MSLP__A.xlsx okay, that seemed to work ... Net-weather readers, I have a discussion thread open about this research on the Boards.ie weather forum, but their upload limit for excel files is very small. This file shows four-times-daily SLP readings for the grid point 54N 6W which is located northeast of Dublin in the Irish Sea, but close enough to the CET zone that analysis should be consistent with that discussion. If you have a look in this excel file, here's a general guide. The dates and times are in columns D and E. The pressures (x100) are in column G. My analysis of daily averages through the year can be seen from column I to column S. Since it's four readings per day, the year lasts 1460 data points (or 1464 if a leap year) and all periods start in row 2 with row 1 reserved for titles. So the mean daily pressures are found in same date-time locations as the start year 1851 to leap year day, then leap year day (29 Feb) occupies the space of 1 Mar 1851, after which the rest of the year follows one day later than the 1851 date-time guides in columns D and E. Graphs to the right of this analysis show the results in terms of mean annual daily pressures. The main feature of interest besides the obvious annual cycle is the sharp fall in September when the Atlantic "kicks in" and creates considerably lower mean pressures. As far as my research goes, this section is just a background setting to give the annual pressure trend. There might be some interesting second-order variations that I could study from the point of view of interactions between the Sun and other gravitational sources during the year. The more interesting portion of this excel file is the study of lunar effects on the annual pressure cycle, which appears from column AD to the end of this file. In that section, I reboot the averages to set them equivalent to the first year's lunar dates. It happens that the first new moon in 1851 was on the 2nd of January, so the lunations then follow with new moon at start and full moon around the middle date, taking 29.5 day segments. The data for all other years are adjusted to this timetable so that the first full moon of each calendar year is in the first lunation (this sets the first new moon somewhere between 16 Dec and 15 Jan). The data is allowed to run over from end of 12th lunations (approximately 354 days elapsed) to include those cases needed to return the data to appropriate starting points. The 13th lunation is therefore somewhat overlapping the 1st in terms of the range of dates that it covers. The results are shown in graph form for each of the 13 lunations, corresponding to the twelve months of the year with a slight forward adjustment moving down the series. I then show a comparative graph of annual pressure and lunar-adjusted annual pressure, which seems to indicate that the second-order variations evident in the annual series have a lunar event bias. There are a few exceptions to this but in general, some of the second order variations seem to have their origin in focused clustering of lunar events. This needs considerable further study to get a grasp on what exactly is being displayed in this correlation. Averages for the shorter sidereal (27.32-day) cycle can be seen in column BI and graph to the right of that. As southern Max in 1851 was right at the start of the year (one day before the new moon) that data runs from southern Max to next southern Max and places northern Max in the centre of the frame. As there is a discussion underway on the Irish site, I am going to link them into this graph (they were already linked into the thread earlier) and I will return to this thread from time to time to report on updated thinking about what this new research actually tells us. There is another section not visible here in my own research excel file, analyzing pressure patterns for the solar system magnetic field components. That is equally interesting and I will post that in about a week or two when we are done discussing this part. over and out ...
  11. Well, somebody just came back from holiday I think, the Hadley EWP number is finally confirmed in the tables as 46.8 mm. The excel file has been adjusted (it was provisional on 46.9) and the only change to scoring is that two ranks are now tied that had been separated (in the T21 rank for average error). So it's now official, the monthly top five were Thundery Wintry Showers (48 mm) with 10.0 points, then Daniel (45 mm) with 9.8 and Mulzy (second in with 45 mm) at 9.7. Pegg24 was fourth at 50 mm (9.4 pts) and Born from the Void fifth (also 50 mm, second entry) with 9.3. The current top 12 in the annual contest after two months are then Blast from the Past _______ 18.5 Thundery Wintry Showers __ 17.1 seaside60 _______________16.8 weather-history ___________16.1 Roger J Smith ____________16.1 Born from the Void ________ 16.0 Mulzy __________________ 15.9 Don ____________________15.5 vizzy2004 _______________ 15.0 Reef ___________________ 15.0 Feb1991Blizzard __________14.8 Daniel*__________________14.1 ________________________________________________________ Excel file with all scoring ... EWP20182019b.xlsx
  12. There are only faint indications in the guidance but I do think we will see a week to ten days of cold weather at some point later this season, might only be starting as February ends though. That was disappointing in January to be fairly close to a very good cold spell and only get what you might call sloppy seconds. However, this winter has produced some of the most bizarre synoptics in quite a while, jet stream went south of the Hawaiian Islands at one point recently and mild air is trapped up over the Beaufort Sea, so I think Britain was a bit unlucky since odd blocking patterns can unleash winter upon you more often than not.
  13. Hadley EWP had reached 45 mm as of 11th, probably still around that now. By the looks of the latest guidance, CET will probably keep climbing, level off for a while, climb a bit more to perhaps 6 and drop back near end, 5.5 might be a good bet. The EWP will probably reach some finishing value between 70 and 90 mm.
  14. A much colder regime has developed in western Canada and most of the western US, which is not standard El Nino either, but it appears that the El Nino has weakened recently. The temperature here has been 8 to 10 degrees below normal since about 3rd of February after January was milder than average. Meanwhile, the Hadley EWP tracker reached 36 mm after 8 days, probably about 40 mm now. On pace to finish above normal but charts suggest this pace may slacken somewhat so most forecasts are still in play.
  15. Just thought I should mention that the January EWP contest is still not 100% officially scored yet because nobody has posted a number for the January EWP at Hadley. The tracker is finished (at 47mm) and the daily numbers are there (they add up to 46.9 mm) but when I added up the December daily numbers they don't quite match the (revised) Dec 2018 monthly numbers. Not sure what to make of procedures at Hadley EWP. Every other contest I deal with on the internet has more or less instant validation numbers available on the 1st of the next month. CET at least tries to update daily. But EWP seems to be subject to quite variable times and procedures for validation. Anyway, it's worth having the contest, but I wish that EWP would just go with the flow and update their numbers in real time. It was the same story last February, a long delay before we saw the Hadley numbers posted.
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