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Roger J Smith

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Roger J Smith last won the day on December 24 2011

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About Roger J Smith

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    Vancouver BC Canada
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    forecast research on a global scale, thus an interest in UK weather as part of a larger research program that concentrates mainly on severe weather in North America.

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  1. August 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Current GFS suggests mean CET would stay in the 15 to 15.5 range to about Saturday 19th then could slowly rise with the mean from 20th to 31st looking closer to 17.5 or 18. This would suggest an outcome of about 16 to 16.3 C.
  2. July 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts

    I have recalculated the year to date CET means from weighted monthly values, a slight change from the simple average used in earlier tables. On that basis, 2017 is still running second behind 2014 and here's the top twelve, the number in brackets refers to position at end of full year. 1. 2014 __ 10.72 (1) 2. 2017 __ 10.57 (?) 3. 1846 __ 10.55 (31) 4. 1733 __ 10.54 (t-15) 5. 2007 __ 10.53 (t-15) 6. 1990 __ 10.50 (5) 7. 1834 __ 10.46 (t-13) 8. 1868 __ 10.45 (20) 9. 1686 __ 10.40 (32) 10. 1822 __ 10.39 (t-43) t11. 1921 __10.38 (t-13) t11. 1775 __10.38 (t-35) _______________________________________________ These top twelve years generally lost a bit of ground although 2014 maintained top spot and 1990 held its position (it was 5th Jan to July before this year). Just one note, the Hadley site lists 10.51 as the CET to date, this does not match their own data so I can't explain that discrepancy. If you average the 212 days instead of using the weighted mean of months, it comes out to 10.56, and if you take the raw average of months (which they don't in their other work) it is still a bit higher than 10.51. Maybe they are applying a correction factor that they will later apply to the monthly data.
  3. Daily C.E.T. Average Values 1772-2011

    You may notice that the previous post appears twice. This is an indirect result of the wonky edit function on this site. At least it is wonky for me. I spotted an error while I was posting a reply (a summary of long spells of wet weather from these tables). The error is corrected in post number two so any moderator feel free to remove the first of the two otherwise identical posts. If you want to verify that you are removing the right post, it will have a date of 1912 in late April, the corrected post has 2012 on that date. Readers should only use the second of the two posts if they are both visible. That will be the one immediately above this post. Here's why that happened. The edit button was still visible in the post above my reply post. So I tried to edit it. When I pressed post on the edit, I got an error message so I went back to my reply, but that had changed to the edit of the post and my reply otherwise had vanished. So I clicked on submit reply and at least got the edited version to post. Anyway, this is what I was going to post ... there are numerous examples of consecutive entries in the 10-day wet intervals, making them essentially wet 14 to 20 day intervals. One of the longest, from late October 1940 to mid-November of 1940, was using 20 consecutive days and 11 consecutive intervals, but a slightly higher value in 2000 on one day in the series truncated that 20-day period. Another similar case was in Feb 1977 which used 20 consecutive days but failed to overcome one entry already in the table from 1951. The longest surviving interval without any interruption is 19 days, from 1 to 19 July 1968 (providing 10 to 19 July in the tables), and also from 31 March to 18 April 1998 (providing the maxima for April 9 to 18 in the table), also tied by 5 to 23 September 1994 (19 days) providing the maxima for 14 to 23 September in the table. The 18 day interval from 7 to 24 Dec 1989 is noteworthy because it contains the highest value in the table, 95.9 mm (11-20 Dec 1989). The wet June of 2007 provided an 18 day spell 8th to 25th June. Another 18 day interval was 3 to 20 August of 2004. As to the historical frequency, this table indicates the number of days in each decade per month. Three days out of the 366 in the year had a tied value and these count for 0.5 in the frequency table below. Only the higher values from 1 to 9 March are counted. It should be noted that since the entries in the table end on dates in various months, the frequencies refer to nine days from the previous month as well as all the days in the given month: To compare the last entry (2011-17) to other decades, multiply by 1.5, as we are almost exactly two-thirds of the way through this decade. No entries were found for 2017 anyway. Frequency ____ JAN _ FEB _ MAR _ APR _ MAY _ JUN _ JUL _ AUG _ SEP _ OCT _ NOV _ DEC __ TOTAL 1931-40 ______ 3 ____ 1 ____ 3 ____ 0 ____ 8 ____ 0 ___ 1 ____ 2 ___ 6 ___ 2 ___ 12 ____ 1 _____ 39 1941-50 ______ 7 ____ 4 ____ 9 ____ 0 ____ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 7 ____ 5 ____ 0 _____ 33 1951-60 ______ 4 ____8.5 ___6.5 ___ 1 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___ 1 ____ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____ 2 ____ 2 _____ 29 1961-70 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 5 ____ 0 ____ 8 ____ 0 ___15____ 5 ___ 3 ___ 0 ____ 0 ____ 5 _____ 41 1971-80 ______ 1 ___ 12.5 __ 0.5 ___ 3 ____ 5 ____ 3 ___ 4 ____ 5 ___ 3 ___ 7 ____ 0 ____ 9 _____ 53 1981-90 ______ 0 ____ 0 ____ 2 ___ 8.5 ____3 ____ 4 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 2 ___ 3 ____ 0 ____ 9 _____ 31.5 1991-2000 ____ 6 ____ 0 ____ 1 ___16.5 ___ 1 ____ 9 ___ 4 ____ 0 ___15 ___4 ____ 3 ____ 0 _____ 59.5 2001-10 ______10____ 2 ____ 1 ____ 0 ____ 5 ____10 ___6 ____17 ___1 ___ 6 ____ 1 ____ 1 _____ 60 2011-17 (Jul) ___0 ____1 ____ 3 ____ 1 ____ 1 ____ 3 ___ 0 ____ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____ 7 ____ 4 _____ 20 The above analysis combined with some inspection of the data shows that long wet spells were less frequent from about 1941 to 1974 than from 1975 to 2012, but have become less frequent again since 2013. The interval from 1998 to 2004 had a particularly high count, resumed in 2007 after two years that did not register. The decade 1951-60, while generally not prolific, was active in the first quarter of the year.
  4. July 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts

    Updated report for the two recent 30-year normals and Consensus in the scoring. Table of forecast errors and position points (Normal 1987-2016 played Dec as 1986-2015) Error stat is forecast value minus actual value. Negative value means normal or consensus too low. ... Positive means normal or consensus too high. Errors are then averaged by absolute values, points are totalled. Positions are relative to all players who have entered at least 7/8 months so far. Rankings for months before July can be seen in the June post (last one in thread). The July rankings are 5th for the two Normals (16.7) and 20th for Consensus (17.2). FORECASTER ____ Dec _ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ JUL _____ mean ___ position Normal 1981-2010 _ -1.4 _ +0.4_ -1.7_ -2.1_ -0.4 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 _ -0.1 ______ 1.14 ____ 13th __ points _________ 79.6_ 69.9_ 56,1_ 59.0_ 86.8 _49.7__7.5 _ 93.7 _____ 502.3 ____ 9th Normal 1987-2016 _ -1.0 _ +0.6_ -1.3_ -2.0__ -0.1 _-1.4_ -1.5 _ -0.1 ______ 1.00 ____ t-7th __ points _________ 89.8_ 58.0_ 67.4_ 61.8_ 98.4_ 53.0__7.5 _93.7 _____ 529.6 ____6th Consensus _______ -2.1 _ -0.1_ -1.8_ -2.2 __ +0.9 _-1.3_ -0.5 _+0.4 ______ 1.16 ____ t-14th __ points _________ 50.0 _95.7 _52.4 _56.2 _57.1 _56.4 _72.4_ 70.1 ______510.3 ___ 9th Our group consensus has now settled into the small gap between Normal 1981-2010 and the slightly higher ranking Normal 1987-2016. You would be very close to first place if you always predicted Normal 1987-2016 plus 0.5 deg.
  5. August 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    I can't edit that above, but instead of making January and July the months with the extreme point, make them February and August with the extreme point maybe 0.1 lower than January by 10 February, and 0.2 higher than July by 07 August. Then start a regular increase after 10 Feb to the Feb mean, and a regular decrease in August to the August mean. January you can drop from the Dec mean to about the 25th then hold steady, and July you can increase slowly but pace it faster to the 25th.
  6. August 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Vizzy2004, you will find that the rolling averages for 1981-2010 contain some quirks that are created by the occasional unbalanced nature of the 30 years that go into the period, these are not real features of the climate and a longer average removes them (or damps them down to almost nothing). So that being said and given the fact that your averages are probably based on a lot fewer years anyway, but including seven that are not in the baseline period, you can get the effect you want by estimating as follows: First, take the cooling months (August to December) and start the rolling mean for each month on the value of the mean of the previous month. Then just take equal amounts per day through the cooling months. An example would be this, let's say your mean for September is 14.0 and for October 11.0, that's 3.0 deg of cooling and your running mean will work out to be 0.1 colder each day from 14.0 on 1st to 11.1 on 30th. December you might find a better result if you let the drops go at a faster rate 1st to 20th then slow them down. January and July are months with the instantaneous extremes within them, so for these, you start at the mean of the previous month, end with the mean for January or July, but somewhere between (25th would be my choice) you blend in a more extreme value by 0.2 deg (if your January mean is 4.4, then make that 4.2). Then that leaves the five warming months of February to June, for these you just reverse the process, starting with 0.1 higher than the previous month on day one, and ending up with your monthly mean on day 30 or 31 at the end. And in general these months can have a steady rise, it will be pretty close to 0.1 each day although more like every other day in February. That would save you all the work of looking up the rolling averages, and actually I think we should use those here because the values calculated from the data have those ups and downs that don't really tell us anything of a valid statistical nature, the 1961 to 1990 data used by the Met Office presumably have the same sort of quirks built in, I have never eyeballed the graphs of the two sets to find out if the quirks of each set have any relationship to those of the other set. If they do, and then they show up in similar data from the past, then maybe there's something significant about them, but if they are just random zigs and zags, they are probably just "noise" introduced by the fact that 30 years are not enough to smooth out the data to the point that 245 years will do.
  7. August 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    The only place I know with the rolling averages for the 12 months (1981-2010) would be here in these threads when I post them along with record values. You would need to look at the last twelve contest threads to find these, and look around the 2nd of each month after most of the entries are in. I have already posted August values.
  8. Daily C.E.T. Average Values 1772-2011

    Wettest 10-day intervals (CEP) 1931 to 2016 includes Jan to end of July 2017 Note: Highest 10-day totals for Central England Precip (mm) are shown for each date with the 10 days ending on that date. This means that entries for Jan 1 to 9 include some days from previous December, year cited will be year of last date in the ten-day interval. For example, 61.3 mm fell Dec 23 1978, to Jan 1 1979. Intervals that end 29 Feb can only be leap years, which explains the much lower value, to compare the same starting date as this for all years, check next date (1 Mar) for non-leap-year max. Intervals that end March 1 to 9 could include a leap year day. They mostly do not (only 8 and 9 March do) and a column only used for 1 to 9 March gives the highest value for leap years. When the highest value includes a leap year day, valid 8 and 9 March 2016, the value in the first March column will be lower and in italics, and does not include a leap year day. Amounts are in mm to nearest tenth,. <<< MAXIMUM 10-DAY TOTALS ending on DATES SHOWN >>> ___ JAN ________FEB _______MAR _____ incl LYD _____APR ______MAY ______ JUN 01 _ 61.3 1979 __ 74.7 1960 __ 49.5 1958 __ 27.4 1936 __ 39.9 1979 __ 65,6 1981 __ 60.2 2000 02 _ 56.2 2003 __ 68.0 1960 __ 48.9 1958 __ 28.4 1936 __ 41.9 1979 __ 64.3 1981 __ 57.9 2000 03 _ 56.2 2003 __ 50.9 1960 __ 45.3 1933 __ 28.0 2000 __ 40.2 2000 __ 65.6 1981 __ 62.7 2008 04 _ 54.6 2003 __ 52.1 1960 __ 44.7 1933 __ 28.0 2000 __ 40.2 2000 __ 58.5 2012 __ 55.7 2000 05 _ 49.7 1998 __ 52.3 1960 __ 45.7 1933 __ 27.7 2016 __ 38.7 2000 __ 54.0 1978 __ 46.3 1992 06 _ 52.1 1998 __ 52.8 1980 __ 40.9 2007 __ 28.4 2016 __ 39.4 1953 __ 48.1 1978 __ 46;3 1999 07 _ 51.5 1998 __ 57.6 1980 __ 41.1 1998 __ 29.3 2016 __ 43.3 1987 __ 48.2 1978 __ 57.4 1999 08 _ 53.2 1998 __ 57.4 1980 __ 41.8 1998 __ 47.2 2016 __ 45.3 1987 __ 47.6 1978 __ 55.5 2012 09 _ 50.5 1998 __ 51.4 1946 __ 50.1 1999 __ 54.3 2016 __ 56,2 1998 __ 43.4 1978 __ 53.0 2012 10 _ 60.5 1948 __ 51.5 1950 __ 50.4 2016 _____________ 66.2 1998 __ 42.9 1969 __ 53,0 1999 11 _ 60.7 1948 __ 49.5 2001 __ 48.9 1981 _____________ 63,3 1998 __ 42.9 1969 __ 57,6 1985 12 _ 64.4 1948 __ 50.5 2001 __ 51.9 1947 _____________ 58.1 1998 __ 42.1 1969 __ 59.4 1985 13 _ 64.1 1948 __ 45.9 1950 __ 58.7 1947 _____________ 56.2 1998 __ 51.2 2007 __ 62,9 1985 14 _ 60.7 1948 __ 45.4 1950 __ 52.9 1981 _____________ 62.2 1998 __ 59.5 1967 __ 55.5 1954 15 _ 61.6 1948 __ 40.8 2014 __ 51.2 1947 _____________ 64.9 1998 __ 59.1 2007 __ 53.7 1977 16 _ 51.0 1948 __ 39.5 1951 __ 54.2 1947 _____________ 62.8 1998 __ 65.0 2007 __ 54,6 2016 17 _ 54.6 2008 __ 40.6 1951 __ 59.3 1947 _____________ 61.9 1998 __ 63.2 2007 __ 56.7 2007 18 _ 55.0 2008 __ 46.2 1977 __ 60.1 1947 _____________ 56.9 1998 __ 62,0 2007 __ 59.1 2007 19 _ 60.4 2008 __ 40.4 1977 __ 59.4 1947 _____________ 42.0 2000 __ 62.5 1967 __ 68.8 2007 20 _ 66.3 2008 __ 39.2 1951 __ 58.1 1947 _____________ 43.8 1999 __ 63.3 1967 __ 68.8 2007 21 _ 53.4 2008 __ 35.0 1977 __ 60.5 1947 _____________ 40.5 1999 __ 63.7 1967 __ 73.0 2007 22 _ 53.0 2008 __ 43.1 1977 __ 56.9 1964 _____________ 41.1 1986 __ 54.2 1967 __ 76.8 2007 23 _ 52.8 2008 __ 51.7 1977 __ 58.6 1964 ____________40.8 1986,99 _ 59.1 1932 __ 68.6 2007 24 _ 48.3 1937 __ 60.2 1977 __ 45.3 1965 _____________ 43.1 1971 __ 59.2 1932 __ 69.5 2007 25 _ 56.3 1939 __ 59.4 1977 __ 48.7 1965 _____________ 47.8 2012 __ 56.3 1932 __ 72.0 2007 26 _ 60.2 1939 __ 59.1 1977 __ 49.1 1965 _____________ 62.2 1981 __ 57.8 1932 __ 76.3 1982 27 _ 54.3 1995 __ 55.5 1977 __ 45.6 1955 _____________ 62.4 1981 __ 67.4 1932 __ 74.4 1973 28 _ 64.7 1960 _49.5 1958,77__44.7 1955 _____________ 64.2 1981 __ 74.8 1932 __ 74.4 1973 29 _ 71.5 1960 __ 27.6 1936 _44.8 1955,79 ____________ 64.2 1981 __ 76.8 1932 __ 71.2 1997 30 _ 72.2 1960 __ xxxxxxxxx __ 44.7 1955 _____________ 65.6 1981 __ 68.4 1932 __ 76.8 1997 31 _ 70.6 1960 __ xxxxxxxxx __ 44.7 1955 _____________ xxxxxxxxx __ 61.3 2000 __ xxxxxxxx ____ JUL _______AUG ______ SEP ______ OCT ______ NOV ______ DEC 01 _ 72.4 1997 __ 60.9 1969 __ 53.1 1997 __ 71.1 1976 __ 63.3 1960 __ 50.1 1965 02 _ 72.7 1997 __ 64.6 1969 __ 55.1 1986 __ 72.5 1976 __ 58.1 1960 __ 49.8 1965 03 _ 73.8 1997 __ 67.5 1969 __ 56.1 1986 __ 80.8 1976 __ 59.8 1940 __ 56.9 1960 04 _ 73.8 1997 __ 68.6 1969 __ 54.4 1931 __ 60.1 1976 __ 70.8 1940 __ 56.7 1960 05 _ 57.4 1958 __ 70.5 1969 __ 59.2 1931 __ 53.0 1991 __ 78.2 1940 __ 53.0 1965 06 _ 61.7 1963 __ 69.1 1956 __ 59.5 1931 __ 54.5 1976 __ 81.5 1940 __ 49.0 1965 07 _ 61.5 1963 __ 76.6 2002 __ 59.5 1931 __ 55.6 1958 __ 82.9 2000 __ 49.1 1972 08 _ 46.2 2007 __ 78.4 2002 __ 60.3 1965 __ 54.3 1958 __ 81.6 1940 __ 51.4 1972 09 _ 61.0 1936 __ 60.1 1939 __ 61.7 2008 __ 52.6 1974 __ 81.3 1940 __ 52.3 1972 10 _ 67.5 1968 __ 62.7 1939 __ 60.2 1931 __ 54.7 1974 __ 65.3 1940 __ 54.4 1972 11 _ 69.7 1968 __ 74.8 1948 __ 60.7 1965 __ 51.4 1987 __ 76.6 1940 __ 48.2 1937 12 _ 69.2 1968 __ 65.6 2004 __ 59.5 1965 __ 59.1 1993 __ 64.1 1940 __ 49.3 1965 13 _ 70.4 1968 __ 71.5 2004 __ 53.6 1993 __ 61.8 1993 __ 59.6 1940 __ 63.1 1979 14 _ 81.5 1968 __ 71.4 2004 __ 60.0 1994 __ 59.7 1993 __ 57.4 2002 __ 64.1 1979 15 _ 83.2 1968 __ 70.0 2004 __ 70.0 1994 __ 75.3 1987 __ 56.8 1993 __ 61.6 1979 16 _ 91.2 1968 __ 73.5 2004 __ 69.7 1994 __ 74.3 1987 __ 56.7 1993 __ 64.4 1989 17 _ 80.8 1968 __ 81.4 2004 __ 66.1 1994 __ 71.2 1939 __ 56.8 1940 __ 64.4 1989 18 _ 79.2 1968 __ 83.5 2004 __ 66.4 1994 __ 70.5 1939 __ 57.4 1940 __ 82.7 1989 19 _ 78.9 1968 __ 47.3 2004 __ 72.5 1994 __ 59.2 2002 __ 63.8 1946 __ 86.4 1989 20 _ 60.0 2001 __ 52.5 2004 __ 75.3 1994 __ 72.2 2002 __ 69.9 1946 __ 95.9 1989 21 _ 63.6 1973 __ 52.1 1977 __ 71.8 1994 __ 73.9 2002 __ 71.8 1946 __ 94.0 1989 22 _ 64.6 1973 __ 53.0 1977 __ 68.0 1994 __ 74.1 2002 __ 71.8 1946 __ 90.2 1989 23 _ 65.4 1973 __ 52.8 1977 __ 67.8 1994 __ 65.5 2002 __ 69.2 1946 __ 70.7 1989 24 _ 63.1 1973 __ 62.8 1977 __ 62.8 1935 __ 62.3 2002 __ 60.1 2012 __ 60.0 1989 25 _ 51.5 2001 __ 64.4 1977 __ 59.6 1992 __ 74.5 1949 __ 63.9 2012 __ 54.1 2012 26 _ 58.0 2007 __ 66.5 2010 __ 59.7 1992 __ 68.7 1949 __ 66.6 2012 __ 57.4 2012 27 _ 54.7 2007 __ 66.1 2010 __ 63.1 2000 __ 66.3 1949 __ 68.5 2012 __ 61.1 2012 28 _ 56.3 2007 __ 66.3 2010 __ 59.4 1976 __ 66.2 1945 __ 69.3 2012 __ 62.2 2012 29 _ 60.9 1969 __ 61.6 2010 __ 62.5 1976 __ 76.1 1945 __ 68.2 2012 __ 60.8 1978 30 _ 60.9 1969 __ 59.9 2010 __ 67.8 1976 __ 72.6 1945 __ 59.7 2012 __ 59.6 2002 31 _ 60.9 1969 __ 57.9 2010 __ xxxxxxxxx __ 65.4 1945 __ xxxxxxxxx __ 58.6 1978 ________________________________________________________________________
  9. Daily C.E.T. Average Values 1772-2011

    Wettest 10-day intervals (CEP) 1931 to 2016 includes Jan to end of July 2017 Note: Highest 10-day totals for Central England Precip (mm) are shown for each date with the 10 days ending on that date. This means that entries for Jan 1 to 9 include some days from previous December, year cited will be year of last date in the ten-day interval. For example, 61.3 mm fell Dec 23 1978, to Jan 1 1979. Intervals that end 29 Feb can only be leap years, which explains the much lower value, to compare the same starting date as this for all years, check next date (1 Mar) for non-leap-year max. Intervals that end March 1 to 9 could include a leap year day. They mostly do not (only 8 and 9 March do) and a column only used for 1 to 9 March gives the highest value for leap years. When the highest value includes a leap year day, valid 8 and 9 March 2016, the value in the first March column will be lower and in italics, and does not include a leap year day. Amounts are in mm to nearest tenth,. <<< MAXIMUM 10-DAY TOTALS ending on DATES SHOWN >>> ___ JAN ________FEB _______MAR _____ incl LYD _____APR ______MAY ______ JUN 01 _ 61.3 1979 __ 74.7 1960 __ 49.5 1958 __ 27.4 1936 __ 39.9 1979 __ 65,6 1981 __ 60.2 2000 02 _ 56.2 2003 __ 68.0 1960 __ 48.9 1958 __ 28.4 1936 __ 41.9 1979 __ 64.3 1981 __ 57.9 2000 03 _ 56.2 2003 __ 50.9 1960 __ 45.3 1933 __ 28.0 2000 __ 40.2 2000 __ 65.6 1981 __ 62.7 2008 04 _ 54.6 2003 __ 52.1 1960 __ 44.7 1933 __ 28.0 2000 __ 40.2 2000 __ 58.5 2012 __ 55.7 2000 05 _ 49.7 1998 __ 52.3 1960 __ 45.7 1933 __ 27.7 2016 __ 38.7 2000 __ 54.0 1978 __ 46.3 1992 06 _ 52.1 1998 __ 52.8 1980 __ 40.9 2007 __ 28.4 2016 __ 39.4 1953 __ 48.1 1978 __ 46;3 1999 07 _ 51.5 1998 __ 57.6 1980 __ 41.1 1998 __ 29.3 2016 __ 43.3 1987 __ 48.2 1978 __ 57.4 1999 08 _ 53.2 1998 __ 57.4 1980 __ 41.8 1998 __ 47.2 2016 __ 45.3 1987 __ 47.6 1978 __ 55.5 2012 09 _ 50.5 1998 __ 51.4 1946 __ 50.1 1999 __ 54.3 2016 __ 56,2 1998 __ 43.4 1978 __ 53.0 2012 10 _ 60.5 1948 __ 51.5 1950 __ 50.4 2016 _____________ 66.2 1998 __ 42.9 1969 __ 53,0 1999 11 _ 60.7 1948 __ 49.5 2001 __ 48.9 1981 _____________ 63,3 1998 __ 42.9 1969 __ 57,6 1985 12 _ 64.4 1948 __ 50.5 2001 __ 51.9 1947 _____________ 58.1 1998 __ 42.1 1969 __ 59.4 1985 13 _ 64.1 1948 __ 45.9 1950 __ 58.7 1947 _____________ 56.2 1998 __ 51.2 2007 __ 62,9 1985 14 _ 60.7 1948 __ 45.4 1950 __ 52.9 1981 _____________ 62.2 1998 __ 59.5 1967 __ 55.5 1954 15 _ 61.6 1948 __ 40.8 2014 __ 51.2 1947 _____________ 64.9 1998 __ 59.1 2007 __ 53.7 1977 16 _ 51.0 1948 __ 39.5 1951 __ 54.2 1947 _____________ 62.8 1998 __ 65.0 2007 __ 54,6 2016 17 _ 54.6 2008 __ 40.6 1951 __ 59.3 1947 _____________ 61.9 1998 __ 63.2 2007 __ 56.7 2007 18 _ 55.0 2008 __ 46.2 1977 __ 60.1 1947 _____________ 56.9 1998 __ 62,0 2007 __ 59.1 2007 19 _ 60.4 2008 __ 40.4 1977 __ 59.4 1947 _____________ 42.0 2000 __ 62.5 1967 __ 68.8 2007 20 _ 66.3 2008 __ 39.2 1951 __ 58.1 1947 _____________ 43.8 1999 __ 63.3 1967 __ 68.8 2007 21 _ 53.4 2008 __ 35.0 1977 __ 60.5 1947 _____________ 40.5 1999 __ 63.7 1967 __ 73.0 2007 22 _ 53.0 2008 __ 43.1 1977 __ 56.9 1964 _____________ 41.1 1986 __ 54.2 1967 __ 76.8 2007 23 _ 52.8 2008 __ 51.7 1977 __ 58.6 1964 ____________40.8 1986,99 _ 59.1 1932 __ 68.6 2007 24 _ 48.3 1937 __ 60.2 1977 __ 45.3 1965 _____________ 43.1 1971 __ 59.2 1932 __ 69.5 2007 25 _ 56.3 1939 __ 59.4 1977 __ 48.7 1965 _____________ 47.8 1912 __ 56.3 1932 __ 72.0 2007 26 _ 60.2 1939 __ 59.1 1977 __ 49.1 1965 _____________ 62.2 1981 __ 57.8 1932 __ 76.3 1982 27 _ 54.3 1995 __ 55.5 1977 __ 45.6 1955 _____________ 62.4 1981 __ 67.4 1932 __ 74.4 1973 28 _ 64.7 1960 _49.5 1958,77__44.7 1955 _____________ 64.2 1981 __ 74.8 1932 __ 74.4 1973 29 _ 71.5 1960 __ 27.6 1936 _44.8 1955,79 ____________ 64.2 1981 __ 76.8 1932 __ 71.2 1997 30 _ 72.2 1960 __ xxxxxxxxx __ 44.7 1955 _____________ 65.6 1981 __ 68.4 1932 __ 76.8 1997 31 _ 70.6 1960 __ xxxxxxxxx __ 44.7 1955 _____________ xxxxxxxxx __ 61.3 2000 __ xxxxxxxx ____ JUL _______AUG ______ SEP ______ OCT ______ NOV ______ DEC 01 _ 72.4 1997 __ 60.9 1969 __ 53.1 1997 __ 71.1 1976 __ 63.3 1960 __ 50.1 1965 02 _ 72.7 1997 __ 64.6 1969 __ 55.1 1986 __ 72.5 1976 __ 58.1 1960 __ 49.8 1965 03 _ 73.8 1997 __ 67.5 1969 __ 56.1 1986 __ 80.8 1976 __ 59.8 1940 __ 56.9 1960 04 _ 73.8 1997 __ 68.6 1969 __ 54.4 1931 __ 60.1 1976 __ 70.8 1940 __ 56.7 1960 05 _ 57.4 1958 __ 70.5 1969 __ 59.2 1931 __ 53.0 1991 __ 78.2 1940 __ 53.0 1965 06 _ 61.7 1963 __ 69.1 1956 __ 59.5 1931 __ 54.5 1976 __ 81.5 1940 __ 49.0 1965 07 _ 61.5 1963 __ 76.6 2002 __ 59.5 1931 __ 55.6 1958 __ 82.9 2000 __ 49.1 1972 08 _ 46.2 2007 __ 78.4 2002 __ 60.3 1965 __ 54.3 1958 __ 81.6 1940 __ 51.4 1972 09 _ 61.0 1936 __ 60.1 1939 __ 61.7 2008 __ 52.6 1974 __ 81.3 1940 __ 52.3 1972 10 _ 67.5 1968 __ 62.7 1939 __ 60.2 1931 __ 54.7 1974 __ 65.3 1940 __ 54.4 1972 11 _ 69.7 1968 __ 74.8 1948 __ 60.7 1965 __ 51.4 1987 __ 76.6 1940 __ 48.2 1937 12 _ 69.2 1968 __ 65.6 2004 __ 59.5 1965 __ 59.1 1993 __ 64.1 1940 __ 49.3 1965 13 _ 70.4 1968 __ 71.5 2004 __ 53.6 1993 __ 61.8 1993 __ 59.6 1940 __ 63.1 1979 14 _ 81.5 1968 __ 71.4 2004 __ 60.0 1994 __ 59.7 1993 __ 57.4 2002 __ 64.1 1979 15 _ 83.2 1968 __ 70.0 2004 __ 70.0 1994 __ 75.3 1987 __ 56.8 1993 __ 61.6 1979 16 _ 91.2 1968 __ 73.5 2004 __ 69.7 1994 __ 74.3 1987 __ 56.7 1993 __ 64.4 1989 17 _ 80.8 1968 __ 81.4 2004 __ 66.1 1994 __ 71.2 1939 __ 56.8 1940 __ 64.4 1989 18 _ 79.2 1968 __ 83.5 2004 __ 66.4 1994 __ 70.5 1939 __ 57.4 1940 __ 82.7 1989 19 _ 78.9 1968 __ 47.3 2004 __ 72.5 1994 __ 59.2 2002 __ 63.8 1946 __ 86.4 1989 20 _ 60.0 2001 __ 52.5 2004 __ 75.3 1994 __ 72.2 2002 __ 69.9 1946 __ 95.9 1989 21 _ 63.6 1973 __ 52.1 1977 __ 71.8 1994 __ 73.9 2002 __ 71.8 1946 __ 94.0 1989 22 _ 64.6 1973 __ 53.0 1977 __ 68.0 1994 __ 74.1 2002 __ 71.8 1946 __ 90.2 1989 23 _ 65.4 1973 __ 52.8 1977 __ 67.8 1994 __ 65.5 2002 __ 69.2 1946 __ 70.7 1989 24 _ 63.1 1973 __ 62.8 1977 __ 62.8 1935 __ 62.3 2002 __ 60.1 2012 __ 60.0 1989 25 _ 51.5 2001 __ 64.4 1977 __ 59.6 1992 __ 74.5 1949 __ 63.9 2012 __ 54.1 2012 26 _ 58.0 2007 __ 66.5 2010 __ 59.7 1992 __ 68.7 1949 __ 66.6 2012 __ 57.4 2012 27 _ 54.7 2007 __ 66.1 2010 __ 63.1 2000 __ 66.3 1949 __ 68.5 2012 __ 61.1 2012 28 _ 56.3 2007 __ 66.3 2010 __ 59.4 1976 __ 66.2 1945 __ 69.3 2012 __ 62.2 2012 29 _ 60.9 1969 __ 61.6 2010 __ 62.5 1976 __ 76.1 1945 __ 68.2 2012 __ 60.8 1978 30 _ 60.9 1969 __ 59.9 2010 __ 67.8 1976 __ 72.6 1945 __ 59.7 2012 __ 59.6 2002 31 _ 60.9 1969 __ 57.9 2010 __ xxxxxxxxx __ 65.4 1945 __ xxxxxxxxx __ 58.6 1978 ________________________________________________________________________
  10. Daily C.E.T. Average Values 1772-2011

    In the record daily rainfalls for July, 11th (10.5, 1953) has been replaced by 11.7 mm in 2017. This was one of the lower July daily records.The only other July records this amount would have passed were on 4th, 5th, 19th and 23rd. The record for the previous day was 50.0 mm.
  11. July 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts

    The only 16.9 person who needs a speech is Born From the Void, I list them in order of entries, the same way J10 scores them. So if 16.9 wins, the first entry is high score. If 17.0 wins, then it's Hammer, and if it's 16.8, it would be Weather 26.
  12. July 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts

    As we await the Hadley verdict on July, noting that estimated value stood at 17.06 on 30th, suggests final to be revised from 17.0, so most likely to finish 16.7 to 17.1 (16.9 my guess on it). From the table of entries, our median was 17.2, the two recent normals being scored are 16.7. These forecasts will be likely to score best: 17.1 _______ CONGLETON HEAT, DON (+1d) 17.0 _______ HAMMER, DANCERWITHWINGS 16.9 _______ BORN FROM THE VOID, REEF, RADIATING DENDRITE, MIDLANDS ICE AGE, CARL46WREXHAM 16.8 _______ WEATHER26, DANIEL*, SIMSHADY, GODBER.1 (+1d) 16.7 _ 1981-2010*_ VIRTUALSPHERE, GAEL_FORCE
  13. August 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Full table of entries now posted here: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8 58 total entries, median still 16.5 C. Trend on GFS is cool until 8th then warmer than average for most of the next 12 days to end of run, would estimate a minimum of 15.0 might be reached by 8th then slowly rising to about 16.0 by 19th.
  14. Table of entries for August, 2017 (updated to include late entries) 21.5 ___ LETTUCING GUTTED 19.2 _ (1995) 18.9 _ (1997) 18.7 _ (1975) 18.6 _ (1947) 18.3 _ (1747, 2003) 18.0 ___ 17.9 ___ TIMMYTOUR 17.8 ___ DAMI 17.7 ___ 17.6 ___ ROGER J SMITH 17.5 ___ 17.4 ___ STEVE B, SUMMER SUN, 17.3 ___ MAPANTZ 17.2 ___ VIRTUALSPHERE, SEASIDE60 17.1 ___ REEF 17.0 ___ RADIATING DENDRITE, DANCERWITHWINGS, STEWFOX, DOCTOR32 16.9 ___ THE PIT, SNOWRAY (+1d) 16.8 ___ STARGAZER 16.7 ___ VIZZY2004, JEFFC, ED STONE, DAVID SNOW, SINGULARITY 16.6 ___ PROLONGEDSNOWLOVER, JONATHANF., DON, JONBOY (+1d) 16.5 ___ DR(S)NO, DIAGONALREDLINE, STATIONARY FRONT, J10, CHRIS.R, MARK BAYLEY _______________________________ 16.5 median value __________________________ 16.4 _ (1981-2010) _ BOBD29, SUMMER BLIZZARD 16.3 ___ WEATHER 26, SUNDOG, DAMIANSLAW 16.2 ___ MIDLANDS ICE AGE, SYED2878, MULZY 16.1 ___ IREMEMBERATLANTIC252, GODBER 1 16.0 ___ POLAR GAEL, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, GAEL_FORCE, MAN WITH BEARD 15.9 ___ WEATHER-HISTORY 15.8 ___ DANIEL*, BORN FROM THE VOID, DAVEHSUG, DUNCAN McALISTER 15.7 ___ SIMSHADY, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER (+1d) 15.6 ___ ALEXIS J9 15.5 ___ 15.4 ___ 15.3 ___ 15.2 ___ METALTRON 15.1 ___ 15.0 ___ 14.9 ___ LET IT SNOW! 14.8 ___ 14.7 ___ ACCAS 14.1 ___ RELATIVISTIC 13.5 _ (1674,1683,1844,1845,1956) 13.3 _ (1725) 13.0 _ (1694, 1695) 12.9 _ (1912) ____________________________________________________ 55 on time entries, and three marked (+1d) one day late, 58 in total ... median value 16.5 C
  15. August 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    1981-2010 CET averages Date ____ Avg CET ___ cum CET ____ MAX 1772-2016 __ MIN 1772-2016 _01______ 16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.9 1995 _____ 11.9 1888 _02 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.6 1995 _____ 11.6 1822 _03 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 24.4 1990 _____ 10.5 1912 _04______ 17.0 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.4 1975 _____ 11.3 1812 _05 ______17.3 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.1 2003 _____ 11.3 1812 _06 ______17.2 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.5 2003 _____ 11.2 1823&1860 _07______ 16.9 _______ 17.0 ________ 22.8 1975 _____ 11.6 1898 _08 ______16.8 _______ 17.0 ________ 23.7 1975 _____ 11.5 1823 _09 ______16.9 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.9 2003 _____ 11.0 1931 _10______ 16.8 _______ 16.9 _______ 22.5 1773&1997__10.8 1892 _11 ______16.7 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.6 1997 _____ 10.8 1902 _12 ______16.8 _______ 16.9 ________ 22.2 1911 _____ 10.5 1912 _13______ 16.3 _______ 16.9 ________ 23.6 1911 _____ 10.5 1881 _14 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.3 1911 _____ 10.8 1912 _15 ______16.8 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1893 _____ 10.3 1829 _16______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1947 ______ 9.5 1888 _17 ______16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.4 1876 _____ 10.9 1888 _18 ______16.6 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.6 1893 _____ 10.3 1830 _19 ______16.9 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.8 1932 _____ 10.4 1839 _20 ______16.7 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.9 1995 _____ 10.5 1920 _21 ______16.4 _______ 16.8 ________ 21.6 1984 ______ 9.8 1850 _22______ 16.5 _______ 16.8 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.4 1817 _23 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 22.1 1955 _____ 10.3 1877 _24 ______16.1 _______ 16.7 ________ 21.5 1990 ______ 9.1 1864 _25______ 15.8 _______ 16.7 ________ 20.9 1899 _____ 10.5 1787,1843&1864 _26 ______15.7 _______ 16.6 ________ 20.6 1870 ______ 8,8 1864 _27 ______15.4 _______ 16.6 ________ 22.8 1930 _____ 11.0 1885&1890 _28______ 15.1 _______ 16.5 ________ 23.0 1942 _____ 10.5 1919 _29 ______15.3 _______ 16.5 ________ 20.6 1930 ______ 9.1 1812 _30 ______15.5 _______ 16.5 _______ 19.8 1808&2008__ 9.5 1890 _31 ______15.2 _______ 16.4________ 21.3 1906 ______ 9.2 1833 __________________________________________________________________ The most recent record minimum CET daily mean in August was on the 9th of 1931.
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