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Roger J Smith

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Roger J Smith last won the day on December 24 2011

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    New Denver BC Canada
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    forecast research on a global scale, thus an interest in UK weather as part of a larger research program that concentrates mainly on severe weather in North America.

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  1. PIT and other observers, how much precip so far? I wanted to track that but have been busy with a move, does not seem like a lot has fallen so far around the country.
  2. Ireland Regional Weather Discussion

    Expect some reports of thunder-snow overnight in Ulster and north/east Connacht, best dynamics are overhead midnight to 0300h. Another good chance for snow Sunday night into Monday morning.
  3. November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    Thanks, J10 for all those summaries and scoring the contest diligently. I am glad to be able to help out with the tables of entries and opening threads, otherwise I would have no idea when it was the 19th of any given month. Now, here's the final report on our three hidden talents, 1981-2010 normal, 1987-2016 normal (played Dec as 1986-2015) and Consensus, which is basically like average only it doesn't matter if LG goes totally haywire and says 150, consensus is the median and not the mean. And I'm not being mean to LG, I know he doesn't really believe his above-record-high forecasts will verify every time, just Dec 2015. (when he was too low, can you believe it?) Well anyway, these three are top ten material, as I will demonstrate in the table below ... I have shortened the "Forecaster" portion to get the last month (Nov 2017) to fit the page ... view at 100% to avoid line wrap problems ... the phrase Fx is short for "Forecaster" and the word Normal is dropped from their identities. Explanation ... For each entity, the first row gives their errors for each month, a negative number means they were too cold and a positive number too warm. After the 12 entries, the mean is the average of absolute errors, so ignoring the anomaly sign. Then the final entry is how that ranks in the table of actual contest entrants. Following that is a row of "points" for that same entity, and these are derived from the monthly scoring tables as if these entities had entered before any contestants who predicted values of equal error. Those might have started out with different values on the other side of normal (example, the first January error of +0.4 or -0.4 would get the highest number of points so this would determine points for 1981-2010 in that case.) As there are often 5-10 tied in these middling values near normal, you can assume that if I scored them against the last entrants of equal value, their ranks would drop 5 or so positions, so they are partly good because they are early (like always first to enter early). However, any way you cut it, humans find it hard to outdo these three ... and their friend "0.5 above recent normal" is even sharper, finishing just about 2nd or 3rd. Fx ________ Dec _ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _ Oct _ Nov __ mean/T __ position 1981-2010 _ -1.4 _ +0.4_ -1.7_ -2.1_ -0.4 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 _ -0.1 _ +0.8 _ +0.5 _ -1.7 _ +0.3 __ 1.03 __t-5th __ points ___ 79.6_ 69.9_ 56,1_ 59.0_ 86.8 _49.7__7.5 _ 93.7 _ 61.8 _ 86.3 _ 61.4 _ 76.0 _ 787.8 __ 3rd 1987-2016 _ -1.0 _ +0.6_ -1.3_ -2.0__ -0.1 _-1.4_ -1.5 _ -0.1 _ +0.9 _ +0.6 _ -1.5 _ +0.4 __ 0.95 __ 4th __ points ___ 89.8_ 58.0_ 67.4_ 61.8_ 98.4_ 53.0__7.5 _93.7 _ 56.6 _ 82.9 _ 69.8 _ 68.9 807.8 __ 2nd Consensus _-2.1 _ -0.1_ -1.8_ -2.2 _ +0.9 _-1.3 _ -0.5 _+0.4 _ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ -1.8 _ +0.2 __ 1.10 _ t-8th __ points ___50.0 _95.7 _52.4 _56.2 _57.1 _56.4 _72.4_ 70.1 _ 56.6 _ 60.7 _ 56.4 _ 87.3 __ 771.3 __ 5th ____________________________________ ____________________________________ These ranks are determined independently, obviously if Normal 1987-2016 and Normal 1981-2010 were both playing, Normal 1981-2010 would finish one rank lower than shown. Our consensus was slightly lower ranking than either of these recent normals but it should be noted that only one or two players in the field did better than consensus without also doing better than either Normal. It should also be noted that I have not done the complete scoring regime including accuracy points for these three. So they are only being compared in two key statistics against the contest field. What's the absolute best "robot" forecaster to emulate? Well, taking 1981-2010 as a base (average error was 1.03), these are the average errors for various departures from those 1981-2010 normal values: 0.2 above 1981-2010 ____ +0.98 0.3 above 1981-2010 ____ +0.93 0.4 above 1981-2010 ____ +0.95 0.5 above 1981-2010 ____ +0.95 0.6 above 1981-2010 ____ +0.95 0.7 above 1981-2010 ____ +0.95 0.8 above 1981-2010 ____ +0.95 ... so it appears that any strategy around taking the more recent and warmer 1987-2016 normals to adding almost a full degree to the 1981-2010 normals will yield roughly the same outcome but adding 0.3 to 1981-2010 normals is your best option (if you want to let a robot do your work). I suppose an even better outcome would happen if you selected the most likely looking option from 0.5 below 1981-2010 to 1.5 above, based on the first half of the month as available from GFS 16-day output. Assuming that would be non-random, you should be able to drop your average error to about 0.7 using that technique.
  4. The tables of forecasts are now posted here: https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8 and the median CET forecast is 4.2 while the median precip forecast is 77.0 mm. 76 entries for the temperature portion and 51 for the new precip contest. Good luck everybody.
  5. Table of entries for December CET forecast contest 12.0__ LETTUCING GUTTED (20) 9.7 _warmest (2015) 7.0 __ CHRIS BELL-NOT THE WEATHERMAN (56) 6.6 __ 6.5 __ SYED2878 (45) 6.4 __ 6.3 __ 6.2 __ DAMI (4), I REMEMBER AT:LANTIC 252 (13) 6.1 __ OPTIMUS PRIME (59) 6.0 __ 5.9 __ WEATHER 26 (14), STATIONARY FRONT (15), COLDEST WINTER @(L1-4)@ 5.8 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST (8) 5.7 __ 5.6 __ VIZZY2004 (1), DIAGONAL RED LINE (17) 5.5 __ DR (S) NO (22), TIMMYTOUR (37), FROZE WERE THE DAYS (55), MARK BAYLEY (70) 5.4 __ 5.3 __ PEGG24 (3), BOBD29 (18), FESTIVEFREEZE @(L1-2)@ 5.2 __ 5.1 __ MAPANTZ (10) 5.0 _average 1987-2016 ... ... ... THE PIT (12), RELATIVISTIC (48) 4.9 __ DKEANE3 (30), METALTRON (66) 4.8 __ STEVE B (20), DON (67) 4.7 __ MAN WITH BEARD (71) 4.6 _average 1981-2010 ... ... ... SUMMER BLIZZARD (27), TERMINAL MORAINE (53) 4.5 __ SUNDOG (40) 4.4 __ STARGAZER (29), REEF (54), DAVEHSUG (65) 4.3 __ BORN FROM THE VOID (34), SNOWRAY @(L1-3)@ 4.2 __ ALEXIS J9 (23), STEWFOX (25), SUMMER SUN (35), GODBER.1 (62) ==================== Consensus (median) 4.2 ============================ 4.1 __ JEFF C (21), NORRANCE (44) 4.0 __ POLAR GAEL (24), GAEL_FORCE (46) 3.9 __ V IS FOR VERY COLD (2), SEASIDE 60 (39), NN2013 (41), MIDLANDS ICE AGE (58) ___________ DAVID SNOW (63), THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS (68) 3.8 __ CHEEKY_MONKEY (16) 3.7 __ SIMSHADY (9), VIRTUALSPHERE (31), DAMIANSLAW (38), MULZY (50), MOORLANDER (51) ____________ J10 (64), SINGULARITY (69) 3.6 __ WEATHER-HISTORY (43) 3.5 __ ROBBIE GARRETT (32) 3.4 __ED STONE (33), CHRIS R (60) 3.3 __ 3.2 __ DOCTOR32 (47) 3.1 __ RADIATING DENDRITE (7), BOOFERKING @(L1-1)@ 3.0 __ DANCER WITH WINGS (36) 2.9 __ MATTHEW. (28), KENTISH MAN (57) 2.8 __ 2.7 __ LET IT SNOW! (11) 2.6 __ DANIEL* (26) 2.5 __ DUNCAN McALISTER (61) 2.4 __ MORE SNOW (52) 2.3 __ 2.2 __ JONBOY (49) 2.1 __ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER (6) 2.0 __ 1.9 __ WEIRPIG (5), ROGER J SMITH (42) 0.6 __ COMET @@(L2-1)@@ --0.8 __ coldest (1890) ________________________________ 76 entries, 71 on time, four marked 1d late and one 2d late. Numbers in brackets refer to order of entry. For late, the order is L1-1 to L1-4 then last entry L2-1. Consensus (median) is 4.2 C. -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= Table of entries for December EWP forecast contest 200.0 __ LETTUCING GUTTED 193.9 _wettest (1876) 122.6 __ V FOR VERY COLD 119.1 __ PEGG24 114.5 __ TIMMYTOUR 111.3 __ TERMINAL MORAINE 110.1 __ DR (S) NO 109.5 __ CHRIS BELL NOT THE WEATHERMAN 103.0 __ JONBOY 101.6 __ VIZZY2004, REEF 101.0 __ THUNDERY WINTRY SHOWERS 100.0 __ RELATIVISTIC 99.2 __ SIMSHADY 98.3 __ average 1987-2016 97.3 __ average 1981-2010 97.0 __ JEFF C 90.5 __ STEVE B 90.3 __ DKEANE3 90.0 __ STEWFOX, NORRANCE, MULZY 88.2 __ BORN FROM THE VOID 85.4 __ CHRIS. R 84.0 __ THE_PIT 82.0 __ SEASIDE 60, MOORLANDER 80.8 __ DAMI 77.0 __ MAPANTZ, SINGULARITY 75.5 __ SYED2878 75.1 __ POLAR GAEL 75.0 __ ED STONE, VIRTUALSPHERE, J10 72.0 __ DANIEL* 69.0 __ PROLONGED SNOWLOVER 68.5 __ MIDLANDS ICE AGE 68.0 __ BOBD29, BOOFERKING (+1d) 67.4 __ ALEXIS J9 67.0 __ MORE SNOW 66.0 __ GODBER.1 65.0 __ DAVID SNOW 62.0 __ RADIATING DENDRITE 60.0 __ DON 58.0 __ DOCTOR32 55.0 __ STARGAZER 53.3 __ STATIONARY FRONT 53.0 __ DAVEHSUG 50.0 __ BLAST FROM THE PAST (+1d) 49.0 __ WEATHER-HISTORY 41.0 __ WEIRPIG 40.5 __ ROGER J SMITH _8.9 __ driest (1788) ____________________________________________________ 51 entries, 49 on time and 2 marked (+1d). The median value of these forecasts is 26th ranked and that is 77.0 mm. ================================================
  6. 1981-2010 CET normals and daily records (1772 to 2016) DATE ___ CET __ CET cum _____ MAX _______ MIN 01 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.1 (1775) ___ --3.0 (1947) 02 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.7 (1796) 03 _____ 6.0 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.0 (1879) 04 _____ 6.1 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.1 (1888) ___ --3.8 (1879,1925) 05 _____ 6.1 ___ 6.0 ______ 12.6 (1898) ___ --3.7 (1844) 06 _____ 5.0 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.3 (1898) ___ --5.5 (1844) 07 _____ 4.8 ___ 5.7 ______ 12.3 (1856) ___ --5.7 (1879) 08 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.5 ______ 12.1 (1856) ___ --5.4 (1807) 09 _____ 4.5 ___ 5.4 ______ 11.8 (1934) ___ --4.0 (1803) 10 _____ 4.3 ___ 5.3 ______ 10.9 (1997) ___ --4.5 (1784) 11 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.2 ______ 12.6 (1994) ___ --6.7 (1784) 12 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.1 ______ 12.9 (1994) ___ --8.5 (1981) 13 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.1 ______ 11.6 (1918) ___ --6.5 (1981) 14 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.8 (1912) ___ --5.3 (1878) 15 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.2 (1985) ___ --5.4 (1788) 16 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.4 (2015) ___ --6.6 (1859) ___ (was 10.8 -- 1842) 17 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.7 (1859) ___ (was 11.6 -- 1904) 18 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.1 (1859) ___ (was 11.8 -- 2014) 19 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.9 ______ 13.1 (2015) ___ --6.8 (2010) ___ (was 11.6 -- 1993) 20 _____ 3.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.1 (1833) ___ --7.0 (2010) 21 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.4 (1971) ___ --5.9 (2010) 22 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.6 (1991) ___ --6.8 (1890) 23 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.8 (1991) ___ --6.4 (1870) 24 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 10.7 (1843) ___ --6.9 (1870) 25 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ___ 10.4 (1824,1983) _ --10.8 (1796) 26 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.0 (2011) ___ --5.4 (1798) 27 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 10.9 (2015) ___ --8.4 (1798) ___ (was 10.6 -- 1987) 28 _____ 4.1 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.5 (1987) ___ --8.2 (1798) 29 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 12.0 (1987) ___ --4.9 (1874) 30 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.0 (1834) ___ --6.1 (1870) 31 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.1 (1859) ___ --7.1 (1783) ________________________________________________________________
  7. If you meant LTA for precip the contest references all England and Wales precip.
  8. Limited internet after my move, can't copy table from Dec 2016 but CET 1981-2010 for 3rd to 6th are 5.9, 5.9, 6.0, 5.8. Will post full table on 5th I hope.
  9. We're getting a very encouraging showing for the new (optional) precip contest, and I realize not everyone reads post 1 before entering here, so possibly a few regulars did not spot the info that the contest now exists, so a heads up to them and future thread users, check post 1 for details on new optional precip contest. I am signing off this thread now until some unknown time in early December (moving) and while I may try to get some tables posted in the "other" thread, it may or may not happen before that unknown return date, so if you don't find any tables look again after 5 December. I think I could guarantee they will appear by then.
  10. 2.9 C and 40.5 mm (only) (note -- I may be completely off the internet from about 30 Nov to 5 Dec, moving house and it's not well-timed for my contest duties, will try to get some parts of my tables onto the site if I can ... but will catch up in December anyway). J10, more about this mysterious new contest in post #1, no changes proposed for the long-running temp contest, just a new precip contest and I can handle the scoring on that one.
  11. Not sure how your question relates to this thread but a sticky note (I think) is one of those small peel-off yellow post-it notes that somebody might use to leave a message on a door or near something that doesn't work properly. Speaking of which, in my explanatory note, the scoring example should have said that other scores would run between 0.0 and 9.7 (not 9.5 as it says). So consider this a thread sticky note. Also while I'm at it, thanks for all these precip entries, it looks as though we'll have almost a full overlap which will make it more fun, I think. I should have mentioned for anyone not familiar with how precip is measured, snowfall at the various locations that are part of the EWP would be measured for its liquid equivalent, and this is usually around a 10:1 ratio so if you're expecting a snowy December keep in mind that every 10 cm of snow will only leave 10 mm of precip in the totals, for example Dec 2010 had more snow than most Decembers, little rainfall, and ended up with a monthly precip of only 34.1 mm.
  12. I assume you want 2.1 and not --2.1 ... anyway use of the dash in your sentence is confusing (me).
  13. The temperature forecast contest continues without change of format, and we are now entering a new competition year (aligned to the four seasons as well as the calendar year 2018). We will start a new contest that is optional for entrants in the main temperature contest (who knows, a few NW members might want to enter only this precip contest). If you want to know more about the optional precip contest, read part 2 of this post, below the dotted line partition. If you're only into the temperature forecast, you can ignore that and enter as you always have in the past. And J10, good news for you, this precip contest will be scored separately and you don't need to do any extra work over all that work you already do scoring the temperature contest... with that said, here's the table of averages and extremes to guide you on the temperature forecast for December ... CET averages and extremes for December --- all CET values 1981 to 2016 are now in the table --- they are in bold italic to make them easier to find --- 13.1 ... warmest daily mean, 19th 2015 12.9 ... previous warmest daily mean, 12th 1994 9.7 ... warmest December 2015 8.1 ... tied second warmest Decembers 1934 and 1974 7.7 ... fourth warmest December 1852 7.6 ... fifth warmest December 1733 7.5 ... 1988 6.5 ... 2006 6.4 ... 1994 6.3 ... 1985, 2013 6.2 ... 1986 6.0 ... 2011, 2016 5.9 ... has never happened in 358 tries 5.8 ... 1997, 2000 5.7 ... 2002 5.6 ... 1983, 1987 5.5 ... 1993, 1998 5.4 ... 2004 5.2 ... 1984, 2014 5.1 ... average for 1971-2000* 5.0 ... average for 2001-2016, and 1987-2016 and 1999 4.9 ... average for 1991-2016 (developing 1991-2020) and 1989, 2007 4.8 ... 2003, 2012 4.7 ... average for 1961-90 and 1991 4.6 ... average for 1981-2010, also 1901-2000 4.4 ... 1982, 2005 4.3 ... 1990 4.1 ... average for 1659-2016 4.0 ... average for 1801-1900 3.9 ... average for 1701-1800 3.6 ... 1992, 2001 3.5 ... 2008 3.4 ... average for 1659-1700 3.1 ... 2009 2.9 ... 1996 2.3 ... 1995 0.3 ... 1981 --0.4 ... tied fourth coldest 1788 and 1796 --0.5 ... third coldest 1676 --0.7 ... second coldest 2010 --0.8 ... coldest December 1890 -10.8 ... lowest daily mean 25th 1796 _______________________________________________ Enter your forecast before midnight on Thursday 30 November, or take the increasing late penalties for entries 1-3 Dec. *This is in fact the highest 30-year average for December in the CET series, and the only one that rounds to 5.1, from 5.06. As you might expect, the Maunder period produced cold Decembers, the mean was as low as 3.2 (1665 to 1694). It then rose as high as 4.29 by 1709-38. There was a colder period than any in the Maunder; the lowest 30-year average was 3.09 from 1783 to 1812; rounded off 1784 to 1813 was equal. The running mean climbed as high as 4.61 for 1823-52 before falling back to 3.48 for 1867-96. Decembers in the first third of the 20th century were generally a bit milder than the mid-century period, means as high as 4.73 were reached in 1893-1922 and 1907-36. The lowest since those peaks was 4.33 for 1923-52. The last time that the running mean was 4.5 was 1957 to 1986. The table above tracks the changes since then, but worth noting that the cold December of 2010 dropped the running mean from 4.84 to 4.63 but it then went back up to 4.82 for 1982 to 2011 as that period dropped the cold December of 1981 (mean 0.3). _____ _ = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = _ ________ Optional Precip Contest -- details We often talk about how precip compares to normal values, but we don't track it like we track temperatures in our contest. There's nothing like a contest to sharpen our awareness (and in my case, I have not paid much attention to precip compared to CET values). I thought about using the CEP but "central England" as defined in the precip data looks considerably different, it extends east across the East Midlands into northern East Anglia. Then I thought, why not just go with national averages using England and Wales, then almost everyone is playing on home field (except for our Scottish, Irish, European and Canadian folk). First point -- this contest is entirely optional. It won't affect scoring in the temperature forecast contest, and vice versa. Second point -- scoring will be handled by myself, J10 has lots to do already and so this is more or less a separate contest. I would put it in a separate thread but I imagine most of those interested will be active here, and it saves you one step. I have chosen the "England and Wales" precip option rather than some smaller region or the larger UK precip. The contest asks you to predict an amount in mm (not a percentage) for this statistic. For December, here are the averages and extremes for your guidance. Data go back to 1766. Max on record ____193.9 mm (1876) Max since 1981 ___ 175.2 (2012) Mean 1987-2016 __ 98.3 mm Mean 1981-2010 __ 97.3 mm Min since 1981 ___ 34,1 mm (2010) Min on record _____ 8.9 mm (1788) Your forecast should be in mm with one decimal allowed. If you enter a percentage, that will be applied to 1981-2010 mean of 97.3 to derive your contest entry. Any number that appears without a % sign will be taken as whole number of mm. It will be up to you to clarify your contest entry. Deadlines are the same as the temperature contest. Scoring will be based on ten points for the closest forecast, reduced as far as 9.5 if that forecast is more than 55 ranks (46-55 reduce by 0.5, and similarly down to 6-15 reducing by 0.1) different from the outcome in the table (see link at end) so the closest forecast will score 9.5 to 10.0, then each other forecast in rank order will score a step lower between that value and 0.0 for the least accurate forecast, correction could be applied but unlikely as that forecast would have to be within 55 ranks of the actual to get any boost. In each case, the most beneficial rank among ties will be used to assess the corrections. Here's one example. Let's say for December, closest forecast is 120.0 and actual is 155.0. That would be 15th wettest, while the best forecast would be 48th wettest. The difference is 33 ranks, so best score is reduced from 10.0 to 9.7. Then if the worst forecast is any more than 55 ranks different from actual, which is likely to be the case most months, it will score 0.0, and the rest of the scores will be equally placed between 0.0 and 9.5. If the worst forecast were 45 mm, that would be 214th wettest (38th driest) and would be well outside correction range. Once the max and min scores are known the rest will be calculated to nearest decimal place. Late penalties are applied as follows: 0.2 per day late. Example, you score 8.4, but enter on second late day, penalty of 0.4 reduces that score to 8.0. Only the max and min scores will depend on order of entry (in the unlikely event of ties). Non-extreme scores will not depend on when you entered relative to anyone with the same forecast error as you. The table of ranked monthly amounts (for EWP) can be found here. With a bit of navigating you can also find other products of the precip product. The contest will only use end of month values posted, any later quality control will not be used for recalculation. I hope we get at least one-third of our temperature regulars interested so we can have an interesting contest. Subject to cancellation if numbers not sufficient for a valid contest. Reference: http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/ranked_monthly/HadEWP_ranked_mly.txt If entering both contests, just post once (not a requirement, you can post separate but try to remember to use mm) A sample "good" entry would be 5.0 C, 82.5 mm (that's not my entry, I will enter around the 30th).
  14. November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

    In 2017, how long has it been since the warmest month on record in each month of the year? Here's a graphically based answer to that ... MONTH ___ INTERVAL SINCE WARMEST Jan ____________________ 101 y Feb ________________________________________________ 238 y Mar ____________ 60 y Apr _ 6 y May _____________________________________ 184 y Jun ____________________________________ 171 y July __ 11 y Aug ____ 22 y Sep __ 11 y Oct ___ 16 y Nov _____ 23 y Dec ..2 y YEAR 3 y What's interesting about that is, the average for the first half of the year is 127 years but for the second half just 14 years. Meanwhile this is the comparable chart for coldest month, I know we just missed in December 2010. Since there are some ties, I show multiple entries for some months. MONTH __ INTERVAL SINCE COLDEST JAN ____________________________________________ 222 y FEB ______________ 70 y MAR _____________________________________________________________________ 343 y APR ____________________________________ 180 y ______________________ 316 y MAY ________________________________________________________________ 319 y JUN _____________________________________________________________________ 342 y JUL .________________________________________ 201 y AUG _____________________ 105 y SEP __________________________________________ 210 y _________________ 323 y 342,3 y OCT _______________________________________________________ 277 y NOV _______________________________________________ 235 y DEC _________________________ 127 y YEAR ______________________________________________________ 277 y Thus it has been, on average, 219 years since the (most recent where tied) coldest month of each name. Since Feb 1947 was the only remotely recent example, this is a list of the coldest ranked months since 1947. This includes all top twenty coldest months. JAN __ 1963 was 5th coldest (1979 was 17th coldest). FEB __ 1947 was coldest (since then 1986 was 5th coldest, 1963 7th coldest and 1956 8th coldest) MAR __ 2013 was 14th coldest (1962 was tied 15th coldest) APR __ 1986 was tied 18th coldest. MAY __ 1996 was tied 13th coldest. JUN __ 1972 was tied 2nd coldest. 1991 was 8th coldest. 1977 was tied 9th coldest, 1971 was tied 17th coldest. JUL __ 1965 was tied 11th coldest. 1954 was tied 19th coldest. AUG __ 1956 was tied 5th coldest. 1986 was tied 16th coldest. SEP __ 1952 was 6th coldest. 1986 was tied 14th coldest. OCT __ 1974 and 1992 were tied with other years at 26th coldest. NOV __ 1985 was tied 28th coldest. DEC __ 2010 was 2nd coldest. 1981 was tied 8th coldest. 1950 was 20th coldest. YEAR __ 1963 was tied 39th coldest. This means that on average, since 1947 the 11th coldest month of any name has been recorded.
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