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Roger J Smith

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Roger J Smith last won the day on October 13

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    New Denver BC Canada
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    forecast research on a global scale, thus an interest in UK weather as part of a larger research program that concentrates mainly on severe weather in North America.

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  1. Roger J Smith

    Storm Deirdre Atlantic storm 4

    Hirlam FMI guidance now indicating potential for severe wind gusts into much of southeast Ireland this afternoon, thinking that Ireland's orange alert may be upgraded to red alert status if this guidance looks to be more accurate by 1100h. The difference is that a more circular low forms and moves well inland, in comparison to a rather glancing inland trajectory of an elongated trough on other models, albeit with quite strong wind gusts anyway. Something a little more organized and moving that far inland could bring in the very strong winds expected off the south coast of Ireland. Coastal Wales is certain to see some gusts over 120 km/hr by late afternoon also, Lancs by 8 p.m.
  2. Well, to finish off that study of mild starts to December, not counting 1794, two of them led to a colder than average winter and about half a dozen finished within 0.5 of the average, the rest were all on the mild side including some of the mildest on record. So this kind of start requires a fast change to colder that is sustained in January, otherwise little or no chance of the winter finishing much colder than average. It should be noted however that 1794-95 ended 5th coldest from a current position just half a degree below 2018. The three or four best outcomes were 1820-21, 1841-42, 1900-01, and 1985-86 (the coldest winter average in this set, 2.9 C (tied 87th coldest). Winter 1841-42 finished at 3.1 C. Maybe we can beat 2.9 C this winter, not expecting to reach top twenty coldest but 21-40 sort of ranking is possible with a sustained cold period.
  3. I guess it only lowers our chances by the amount by which 12 of 90 days have gone into the books with a large positive anomaly, so if the definition is just below average for the whole season, and that first 12 days go in at +3 then the other 78 have to average about --0.5 (anomaly) to balance them out. But as WWS shows above, there are plenty of cold months in the mix. In other words, it does alter the odds of an overall mild winter but it leaves more or less unchanged the odds that Jan or Feb will be colder than normal. If this level of warmth is sustained to end of December, then it just makes the colder winter that much more improbable in statistical terms because if the month goes +3 then the other two months have to average colder than --1.5 to balance it out. But as 1986-87 showed, the raw numbers may show one thing but one exceptional outbreak can perhaps last longer in the memory. I don't imagine the winter mean for 2017-18 will be recalled as easily as the weather at end of Feb and beginning of March.
  4. Here's a look at how other Decembers ended up when running 7.4 or higher by 12th (which will be tomorrow's report, I would expect 7.9 perhaps for this month which would rank 16th warmest) ... 1820 ___ 8.5 to finish 4.7 1827 ___ 7.4 to finish 6.9 1831 ___ 8.9 to finish 5.8 1841 ___ 7.5 to finish 4.4 1848 ___ 7.7 to finish 5.6 1852 ___ 7.8 to finish 7.7 1857 ___ 7.6 to finish 7.3 1863 ___ 7.5 to finish 6.3 1868 ___ 8.2 to finish 7.2 1876 ___ 7.4 to finish 6.0 1898 ___ 9.8 to finish 7.3 1900 ___ 8.2 to finish 7.2 1918 ___ 8.9 to finish 6.9 1934 ___ 9.4 to finish 8.1 1948 ___ 8.4 to finish 5.7 1953 ___ 8.3 to finish 6.9 1956 ___ 8.7 to finish 5.7 1974 ___ 8.3 to finish 8.1 1979 ___ 9.3 to finish 5.8 1985 ___ 7.5 to finish 6.3 1986 ___ 7.4 to finish 6.2 1994 ___ 8.6 to finish 6.4 2000 ___ 9.9 to finish 5.8 2006 ___ 8.0 to finish 6.5 2015 ___ 9.3 to finish 9.7 Just outside this range, 1794 was at 7.3 on 12th, fell to 3.7 by end of month, and Jan 1795 averaged --3.1 the coldest month on record. In Dec 1841, the change to cold occurred fastest of these years (if any cold arrived at all) ... it was --2.7 for the 18th. In 1820 the coldest day was --2.5 on the 31st, the entire period of 25 Dec 1820 to 4 Jan 1821 was subzero. So this gives us some idea of what has taken place in similar years, many (as Pit was saying) don't cool down much at all although only 2015 managed to warm up from this range.
  5. Assuming the above is correct, which I accept, then days ten to sixteen on the same run turn colder with an approximate mean of 3.5 during the period (could be near zero from the 24th to 26th). That would take the CET by 27th to 5.8 (6.6*20 + 3.5*7 = 156.5/27). If there's a bit more bite to that cold outbreak this could be projected as low as about 5.2 C.
  6. The EWP tracker shows a similar precip total so far (to 8th) of 46 mm, so it's running a little ahead of a normal December pace so far. http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/charts/charts.html On the CET side, I can report that if we have a mean above 8.0 through ten days, only 13 other years managed that, and several were at 8.2 so we would be near tenth place at 8.3. There were two additional years at 8.0 for a total of fifteen (out of 246 previous tries). Looking at the recent model output, I would say the CET is likely to fall slowly but steadily through the next two weeks and might be into the high fives by Christmas, certainly no higher than 6.0 by then. The Atlantic may be staying in the game but it is recycling colder air masses now and will increasingly do that each time it comes knocking, so a lot of the time we will be seeing daily means of 5-7 degrees. Then some runs have hinted at a few colder days than that.
  7. I always try to remember the John Holmes advice (best forecasting advice I can recall) to compare model runs from same time rather than every six hours, especially when looking for longer term trends. And with that in mind, the 00z GFS has continued on from last night's diving low scenario at end of the run, continues today to bring in significantly colder air on a strong northerly, not quite as windy perhaps. I didn't see too much of this cold outbreak showing on other times of the GFS earlier today but hoping the 00z is leading the way. Next thing to compare run to run will be ECM 00z deep low on day eight (this time). I noticed that the ECM 12z took that on a more southerly track but it still looked fairly potent for southeast England at least. However, with respect to that system, the GFS has determined that most of the energy will go into an earlier wave arriving northwest Ireland about 24h ahead of the ECM proposed storm, and with similar intensity, so more of a concern for NI and Scotland next weekend.
  8. You're right, I saw seven and typed eight, can't edit now but that means in the table above, not a tie for 6th as shown but 6th for DAVID SNOW (7, 12 _ 9.5) and 7th alone for Dr(S)No ranks as shown. Apologies. If a mod can fix that up we can delete these two posts.
  9. The 00z GFS had been showing a colder turn by Christmas and using the John Holmes rule (compare models time for time not consecutively) I am waiting to see what the next 00z run shows, the book is not closed yet on colder values of CET although I would agree that other model runs support something above 6.0 into late December.
  10. Roger J Smith

    The Seasonal Forecast Thread

    The latest (00z) GFS run starts to look like this scenario of cold engaging around Christmas, and there are some juicy charts on offer by 23rd-24th. My guess is that these will waver back and forth to more zonal looking maps but at the very least something like those maps will probably appear sooner or later in the last days of the month and or start of Jan 2019. It's just a matter of time until all the cold air attacking the jet stream wins big and pushes it well south over most of the Atlantic sector, because we know the Pacific is not going to be a place for much trough development given the combination of El Nino (Modoki) and the persistent blob of warm water in the Gulf of Alaska. The early freeze-up of Hudson Bay is now 3/4 complete with James Bay frozen on its western shore, and that means the cold pool over the central Canadian arctic region should form a secondary lobe over Quebec due to easier cold advection with ice instead of stratus inducing cold waters. So with that anchor to induce a Greenland block, the question becomes one of geometry for the eastern Atlantic response, will it be a Greenland to northwest Russia blocking high, or a deep trough. Perhaps it will be alternating spells of each type. That might spread the snow around a bit more too with different wind directions in play during cold spells. I am very optimistic about the cold prospects, even the fact that El Nino seems to be weakening slightly is probably a good thing, it should make the lows from Gulf of Mexico a bit less potent so they either wobble around in the western Atlantic eventually or try to get into the subarctic gyre near Baffin Island. That's an improvement over the Diana style raging zonality of a few days back. But it will take 1-2 weeks to kill off the signal.
  11. The hunt for cold -- I found it at T384. Diving low followed by true arctic outbreak, on Christmas Eve too. This could fade in and out for a few more days, something like that seems plausible once the increasingly cold zonal runs out of energy and the jet drops away further. Just about the same timing as 2009-10 in the last Modoki type El Nino. (although that started up with some cold southeasterly stuff before a northerly developed) The thing about this winter is, parts of the arctic are actually colder than normal, in particular, the Canadian arctic islands and north/west Greenland. So if that anomaly can either expand or shift east, we might get the rare synoptics that many crave.
  12. Hey so I looked that up, here's the top five ... for April 2011. 1. Craig Evans 12.0 2. Atlantic Flamethrower 11.6 3. Roger J Smith 11.5 4. Glacier Point 11.2 5. Don 11.1 Seems that Craig (who is LG for the recently arrived) put down his marker before AF. I'm calling my effort not too shabby. Is Atlantic Flamethrower still here under a new name?
  13. He knows I am just kidding, as I don't think he actually believes his forecasts will verify most of the time. It was dead last for the contest year on both fronts (among regular participants at least). and he was also high score for Dec 2015 -- so that's 4 years and 8 months, looking good for August 2020 to be a scorcheroo. Mind you, he upped his ante since the debacle of being colder than reality in Dec 2015, that won't happen again. I don't recall Apr 2011 result but I was actually second for Dec 2015 and missed by over 2 degrees! Probably a lot of warmish forecasts back in Apr 2011 as the charts must have been showing warmth that started early that month. No doubt some high 10s and maybe a brave call of 11? Might be back in the archives on page eight million I suppose.
  14. Well most will settle for an 86-87 situation where maybe the winter wasn't ranked cold but mid-January certainly was. (Dec 86 CET was 6.2) -- that winter must have been borderline for breaking your rule (6.2, 0.8, 3.6 ... mean 3.53). Also to me it looks like becoming increasingly cold zonal with some rather cold days at times even before that 21-23 Dec period that I think will be stormy and perhaps see a pattern starting to change. Meanwhile in contest news, all the precip scoring (EWP contests) is finished now, Singularity is our first year winner by a healthy margin. I have also posted a table over in the contest scoring thread showing combined ranks of CET and EWP forecasts (where possible) and in that, Don is the winner. Of course in the CET, it was Man with Beard but he doesn't do the EWP. The LG approach is good for dead last, but it is entertaining (and perhaps not dead last this month, although nobody went all that low).
  15. Combined CET and EWP rankings _ not all CET forecasters enter the EWP contests. This list will compare only those who entered at least ten CET contests to make the primary rankings, and in some cases those forecasters entered fewer than ten EWP contests. The EWP rank is from the NCIC version table, not the later appearing Hadley version (these ranks are similar though). Numbers in brackets denote how many contests were entered. If there are two numbers, the second one lower, this refers to CET and EWP contests entered. One number means the same for both contests. _ The table proceeds in order of average rank in the two contests. At the bottom of the table, you will find the ranks of all non-EWP entrants missing from the table. _ The area between the table and that list has a few entrants who entered only a small number of EWP contests -- as well as a few who were fairly frequent entrants in both, unranked in the main CET table so I got them a ranking based on total points scored vs the main list. Some of these are higher ranks than the lower third of regular CET entrants but I did not adjust any of those down. For example, AlexisJ9 who entered nine CET contests had more points than the two tied 21st for CET in the table (so her rank enters as 21 also). Vizzy2004 reached 20th highest total score from eight entries and Gael_Force (no EWP so not shown in table) was equivalent to 31st from six. . _ Not shown in table, our consensus values scored around 9th in CET and 3rd in EWP.-- about third place in the table. Normals closer to about 10th-12th. rank _ FORECASTER ________ CET Rank ______ EWP Rank ______ Average of two ranks 01 _ Don (12) _________________ 2 ______________ 3 _________________2.5 02 _ Singularity (12) ____________ 8 ______________ 1 _________________4.5 03 _ Norrance (12) _____________ 3 ______________ 9 _________________6.0 04 _ Mulzy (12) ________________ 6 _____________ 11 _________________8.5 05 _ Reef (12) ________________ 10 ______________8 _________________9.0 T06_DAVID SNOW (12) _________ 8 ______________12 _______________ 10.0 T06_Dr(S)No (12) _____________ 16 ______________4 ________________10.0 08 _ Radiating Dendrite (12) _____ 13 _____________10 ________________11.5 09 _ Midlands Ice Age (12) ______18 ______________ 6 ________________12.0 T10_Godber.1 (12) ____________ 11 _____________ 16 ________________13.5 T10_BornFromTheVoid (12) _____ 12 _____________ 15 ________________13.5 12 _ The Pit (12) _______________ 5 _____________T26 _______________ 15.5 13 _ seaside60 (12) ____________T21_____________ 13 _______________ 17.0 14 _ Polar Gael (12) ____________30 ______________ 5 _______________ 17.5 T15_dKeane3 (10) _____________20 _____________ 20 ________________20.0 T15 _J10 (11^, 12) _____________38 ______________ 2 ________________20.0 17 _ Stargazer (11) ____________ 22 ______________ 22 _______________ 22.0 18 _ Steve B (12) ______________17 ____________ T28 ________________22.5 T19_stewfox (10, 9) ____________15 _____________ 33 ________________24.0 T19_pegg24 (11) ______________ 24 _____________ 24 ________________24.0 T19_davehsug (12) ____________ 25 _____________ 23 ________________24.0 22 _ Stationary Front (12) _______ 36 _____________ 18 ________________27.0 23 _ Jonboy (12) ______________ 48 ______________ 7 ________________27.5 24 _ Kirkcaldy Weather (10) _____ 26 _____________ 30 ________________ 28.0 25 _ doctor32 (10)______________19 _____________T38 _______________ 28.5 T26_weather-history (12) ________32 _____________T26 _______________ 29.0 T26_Jeff C ___________________39 ______________19________________ 29.0 28 _ syed2878 ________________46 ______________14 _______________ 30.0 29 _ Roger J Smith (12) _________37 _____________ 25 ________________31.0 30 _ weather26 (12, 11) _________31 _____________ 34 ________________32.5 T31_EdStone (12, 11) __________ 28 _____________T42 _______________ 35.0 T31_Bobd29 (12) ______________42 _____________T28 _______________ 35.0 T31_Let It Snow! (12, 9) ________ 49 _____________ 21 ________________ 35.0 34 _ virtualsphere (12, 11) _______34 _____________ 37 ________________35.5 35 _ Relativistic (12) ___________ 43 _____________ 31 ________________37.0 36 _ Dami (12) ________________44 _____________ 32 ________________38.0 37 _ Daniel* (12, 9) ____________47 _____________ T38 _______________ 42.5 38 _ Diagonal Red Line (10, 7) ___45 ______________41 ________________43.0 39 _ Lettucing Gutted (12) _______51 _____________ T95 _______________73.0 --- (fewer than 10 in both, or much fewer entries to EWP) ----- --- this section includes only ranked CET (2) and 6+ both, fewer than 6 in both check tables --- ranks before names are positions in table above, without changing lower ranks there T23 vizzy2004 (8) _____________ 20 (equivalent) ____ 35 _______________ 27.5 T28 ChrisBell-notthe-wxman (9) __T43 (equivalent) ___ 17 _______________ 30.0 30 _ AlexisJ9 (9) ______________ 21 (equivalent) ____ T42 ______________ 31.5 T36_Mapantz (8) ______________ 40 (equivalent) ____ 36 _______________38.0 38 _ CheesePuffScott (7) ________42 (equivalent) ____ 45 _______________ 43.5 39 _ TJM14 (6) ________________ 39 (equivalent) ____ 49 ______________ 44.0 39 _ simshady (6) ______________ 50 (equivalent) ____ 40 ______________ 45.0 39 _ timmytour (6) ______________ 49 (equivalent) ____44 ______________ 46.5 39 _ Blast From the Past (9) ______ 51 (equivalent) ____46 ______________ 48.5 39 _ Prolonged Snow Lover (9,7) __ 51 (equivalent) ___ 51 _______________ 51.0 39 _ Duncan McAlister (12, 1) ____ 27 _____________T87 _______________ 57.0 40 _ I Remember Atl 252 (11,1) ___50 ______________ 97 _______________ 73.5 _____________________________________________________________________ CET forecasts only, with rankings there _ Man with Beard (1), metaltron (4), Summer Blizzard (9), damianslaw (14), Mark Bayley (T21) dancerwithwings (29), Summer Sun (33), snowray (35), sundog (40), Kentish Man (41) ______________________________________________________________________ ^ note: the one forecaster who entered more EWP than CET was J10, that was because he disqualified his Jan 2018 entry in CET for being late but made the extended EWP deadline. If he had counted the CET forecast because of the scoring system using averages, it might not have made any difference to CET rank .