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Alex last won the day on July 3 2011

Alex had the most liked content!

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    Hot and dry summers with big thunderstorms.

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  1. For me living in the southeast, I probably do expect more. I holiday most years in the Lake District and a good day up there would probably be a disappointing one down in Essex so it is subjective. Saying all that last summer started really well, although 2nd half was poor. 2016, 2015 and 2014 were all ok summers with hot spells and some decent thunderstorms. 2013 was very good especially July. June was a little cool but dry from memory. 2012 was poor but August was satisfactory with a local hot spell on V weekend (32c on both Sat/Sunday from memory). 2011 was also poor. 2010 was mostly good other than August. I remember a long period of dry sunny weather for 3-4 weeks in June into July during the World Cup and beyond. Best summers from memory though have to be 94/95/96/03/06/2013. 2005 wasn’t bad either. Worst summer is reserved for 2007 although even then there was some better spells of weather at times and we had that fantastic April!
  2. Yes I do remember well the first half of summer 2010. Most of it was the pronounced NW-SE split. Most days my local station was the hotspot (Writtle) and one of the days had an outrageous split where I was driving back from the Lake District and it was 18c and when I got home 31c in Chelmsford. It steadily went downhill from the end of July rather than any marked change overnight and by August it was very different - often wet and rather cool. Yes reminds me of this year a bit so far, although I am sure some of the days in 2010 around mid June although dry were a little cool before it warmed up around the 20th significantly.
  3. Terrible terminology Knocker. Hail is not a wintry shower! I won't go into the science of it I'll let you read it up yourself. It could be 50c and still hail! Anyway onto models and it does appear that a crumb of comfort is appearing with the jet slightly more north from the weekend onwards although the tilt means there will more of a NW flow which unfortunately means it will feel rather cool for the time of the year with showers as the slack flow allows. Over time it appears that we could end up with the flow becoming more westerly again and the jet that little bit more north which suggests a NW-SE split establishing. No sign of hot weather reappearing at the moment.
  4. Although I haven't researched any records, it has been very dry since last July here in Essex. We had a very warm July, August and September. Winter was generally mild and dry with little rain and the spring has also been dry so far. I am sure nature will have its way and we will probably have a wet summer. But if this carries on surely there will be restrictions?
  5. Interesting day I suppose, one thing I have noticed though is that I think the Met Office have gone backwards not forwards over the last 5 years. This of course is personal opinion but, 1) I don't believe some of the TV presenters are fully qualified meteorologists. I am not a big fan of Carol Kirkwood for example, I know some of you are - and she does comes across as a good presenter but her skills relating to weather/geography seem basic. I personally miss the fully qualified staff like Michael Fish and John Kettley. 2) I think the automated output has been worst since the Met Office started using there own models. Most of the summer has seen temperatures forecast too low during the day and too high at night, wind speeds are often breezier than predicted too. The new model deals dreadfully with Spanish Plumes (for example the forecast high for the 1st July was 29c in London two days before, it actually hit 35c! 3) The forecasts have been becoming too basic, It's like the Met Office don't want Joe Public to have any knowledge of what a high pressure system is for example. Too much glamour, I'm sitting in a zoo stroking animals (BBC Breakfast) rather than why it is raining/staying sunny today. Just my opinion and I hope the Met Office win the contract back, but I think they need a hard look at what things they could change. Maybe they became too comfortable?
  6. Temperature reached 25c again here in Chelmsford, Essex today. It really has been a half decent summer with not too many hot days but many many days of pleasant weather and highs of 25c+

    1. Show previous comments  2 more
    2. Alex


      We had that very hot day on the 1st July and have had a few days of 28/29c but main story has been the consistency of the dry warm days. There has been only 2 main rain events all summer and that came from one big thunderstorm and that Friday rain event.

    3. Nick L

      Nick L

      Yup, decent summer around these parts too. The lack of unpleasant heat and the abundance of pleasant warmth has been welcomed!

    4. Evening thunder

      Evening thunder

      Oddly it has just about failed to reach 25C IMBY.. possibly the first summer I record without reaching it?

  7. Looks like a continuation of a NW/SE split in medium term which has been the story of the summer. Apart from last Friday and Sunday - where I live in Essex has been mostly settled and I can't remember any days with frontal rainfall other than them ones mentioned.
  8. Just adding to the people who say the ground isn't dry enough for v high temps. Well they are in Essex. The ground is rock solid! I can't speak for the rest of the country but it's very very dry here.
  9. I know it's not the met office thread but I wonder what there own model shows as it often under predicts plumes as it did in 2011, 2012 and 2013 here in Essex. Onto the models and no one has mentioned the GEM which has been fairly consistent for heat. Interested to see the ECM overnight ensembles to see if the op was a complete outlier or onto the signal that the trough will be further west with a more dominant ridge to our east.
  10. The decline in thunder days.

    Living in the southeast (Chelmsford), I must confess that thunderstorms have reduced although last year saw some absolute crackers, we had three days that followed a hot spell (can't remember dates but sometime in early July). One was on Thursday and the second followed on Friday night and also we had a memorable storm on the Sunday after and all them days had high temperatures (Friday was 32c for example). We ideally need an intense plume with an Atlantic trough (similar to what the GEM model suggest tonight) to get widespread severe storms. I do agree though that there has been a reduction even here in the southeast!
  11. You couldn't be more wrong if you tried. A UK high could well force the NAO to negative. How many more times do members have to say? The NAO is literally the difference in pressure in the North Atlantic between Iceland and the Azores. Yes of course a negative NAO may indicate troughing in the wrong area for us but it may also indicate favourable blocking too.
  12. Forget the NAO, it is merely a signal for the pressure difference in the North Atlantic and therefore has no bearing on the weather here. I would be looking at other teleconnections for ideas of developing trends like the MJO and AAM. Hope that helps.
  13. Anyone seen the GFS 06z ensembles? All over the place!!! http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png I will await the ECM tonight as once again the 12z looks different.
  14. Something doesn't look right with the GFS 06z, although it seems to have further downgraded the heat/settled spell, I think at the same time it is overdoing the trough over Iceland. I may be wrong but it will be interesting to see what the ensembles show.
  15. What will be key now is whether the models backtrack and move everything east meaning once again the southeast gets the plume whilst the rest of the country wonders what the fuss is about. This though is one time when I think things will fall into place nicely and most of the country could benefit from the heat!