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swfc

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Everything posted by swfc

  1. swfc
    Funnily enough was just pondering that. Way in fi but a huge amount of very low 850s to the north of uk. Usual nuisance low needs to move ese and not fill
  2. swfc
    Yes control and mean look bangers
  3. swfc
    18z looks pretty good imo. Where is it flat
  4. swfc
    Gfs 18z has deeper low to the west of Atlantic ridge at 120 hrs. May amplify ridge and provide a push of wwa northwards. Hopefully
  5. swfc
    GEM
  6. swfc
    Fgs enough of individual charts and selective ops Look at the ens and cons
  7. swfc
  8. swfc
    Tbh the ec was for the bin yesterday amd now looks ok? Id suggest giving it a few more days and see where things sit. Relax its all out of our control anyway
  9. swfc
    Maybe that post will cut down on the panic
  10. swfc
    You should probably contact your gp or a psychiatrist for that pal
  11. swfc
    Tbh the 18z control is on the ropes also. Hopefully better outlook tom. One run at the end of the day
  12. swfc
    Looking further into fi on the gfs 18z still has a great nhp. In all honesty patience is going to be needed here. The atmosphere os in such a state of flux that imo gfs will revert to type or default. The ens and further runs will show either way. My punt is still a cold outlook mid jan onwards.
  13. swfc
    Tbh that low exploding looks wrong imo. Theres nothing to instigate such a huge drop in pressure. Imo its wrong on the 18z
  14. swfc
    Indeed its a close call. The 850s south of iceland are excellent also
  15. swfc
    Post of the day. Cracking
  16. swfc
    Whos guaranteed a cold spell? Tbh the meto seem confident of a spell of colder weather threw january. Given there expertise and access to major data they could be on the ball?? Id go with them but any thoughts of longevity or severity i woudnt have a scooby. Ec is ok imo
  17. swfc
    Yes absolutely but im not imo expecting it to show its hand on ec atm.
  18. swfc
    Remember you dont need major blocking to divert cold 850s to the uk. Ec isn't showing a west to east biased
  19. swfc
    Maybe
  20. swfc
    Ideally yes but i think the volatility and state of the atmosphere currently make that a big ask imo.
  21. swfc
    There seems to be a lot of angst over output past ten days??? The warming signal remains without a finish point, wind reversel. If you include a current pv that must be dizzy and a nhp full of wedges and small areas of heighths. All this considered the whole nhp is in a state of huge flux.Picking a part of a specific run at 300 hours is like trying find a McDonald's on pluto
  22. swfc
    When trying sustain or build heights you want any lows driving warm air up the west side od greenland Genenrally low pressure moving westwards under the tip of greenland"without"any heights to disrupt low, game over
  23. swfc
    Gfs oz continues the theme of a large rise in pressure to the west and subsequent large drop in 850s threw our area. All fi but npt a bad start to the day
  24. swfc
    Yes Dave she contributes a lot to this forum. Hope your well health wise etc. You been having a look at the output in regard to any easterlies in the mix? You were along with SM the go to guys on this subject
  25. swfc
    So pretty good output today. 12z and more so the 18gfs show be it fi should that set of runs come anywhere near its goodbye atlantic, door shut
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