[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

 johncam if its a long-term forecast why is it updated every day? Waste of time imo

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Ali1977

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Dennis on the face of it a decent looking chart, . But the decent 850s seem to be eroded esp to the east/north/ northwest. Every thing atm points to nothing imo to anything interesting cold/wintry. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 nick sussex Time to look forward to warmer days nick

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

 Methuselah probably not but the fact is how can a six week have merit if its updated every day 

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

 Allseasons-Si It rarely comes anywhere near the mark only in exceptional occasions. The forecast is virtually re issued every day with small tweets. If it had foundation why is it issued every day instead of every month if it has credance?

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

 Chasbrown This forecast update is absolute rubbish. Ive been on here 20 years.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

The comment ssw has been used a lot this winter. From an early cold spell in December it ran into jan ie eqbo etc. Its at a stage now where there is nothing in regard to a ssw could in effect do anything until March? Why is it when the models look poor people post 10+charts looking for cold. When its showing bang average fi is 7 days? I love cold weather and synoptics but there is nothing to suggest anything unusual for febuary heading into march imo

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 SLEETY . Epic charts via a phantom ssw bringing 47 cold 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Ali1977 possibly but clocks ticking Ali.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Ali1977 if it's in your water Ali id contact your Gp.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Im losing the will to live hearing the comment "ssw"

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 nick sussex yes nick its been a hard slog esp for the members on here who put a lot of time and effort on the thread. A lot of great background signals, synoptics "at times" but the heighths etc to the south seem to be an  insipid winter feature.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Looking across most of the threads i think fatigue and poor output and weather as caused a lot of disappointment this winter. Early signs were looking good but things have for most been bang average. Imo i cant see anything even with a ssw. Its currently snowing heavy here but will be gone this evening. Heres hoping for one last hurrah in feb

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

So after looking at the mo today and giving an average assessment imo there is nothing unusual or any real lead on where the nhp is heading. "low gate" aside i cant see any strong signal for any very cold/extended or indeed wintry weather. Im not sure looking at the strat at 10pha is gaining traction. Hopefully theres an uptick in any blocking after a transient ridge but speculation can be a downfall without the subsequent data 

[Model banter and emotions]

 frosty ground hi. are you a moderator on  here frosty ground, tia

[Model banter and emotions]

 nick sussex tbh nick its just bog standard weather ie uk over the last few winters etc. 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 frosty ground i think ido knows that in regard to the air and its source

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Good grief 50/70 mile southward corrections on a low due on Thursday causing discussion . Is it that critical in regard to the mo?? 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch Do you mean in regard to the low not staying to the south? 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

  @northwestsnowNot sure what the problem is wth the ECM. Looks pretty good unless you view it from an imby perspective Not sure why northwestsnow is on this post, sorry mate

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Could really do with an uptick ie some heighths to the nnw.Becoming a bit tedious atm but we live in hope

[Moans, ramps and banter]

3 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:

Has anyone lost faith in background signals a bit? I mean understand favourable signals can increase our chances of cold but too much credit is given to them. The amount of times they amount to S.F.A and then there’s excuses while it didn’t materialise and you have to factor in how small we are macro vs micro etc so why not factor that in to begin with then with your ramping predictions instead of after when it goes its up. Seems to be almost an annual occurrence. I don’t think I’ve ever seen “ I was wrong” rinse repeat

You do make some good points. Growing up from the 60s and witnessing some great wintry periods i guess forecasting then was shorterm. Nowadays ssw, easterly qbo etc give more direction in theory. Getting that into a reliable time frame is still a roll of the dice imo

[Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?]

Morning. Looking at the gfs at 10pha the tpv looks quite weak. Not my field bit why isnt the mo showing a weaker pv?? Tia 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Morning, has the model output thread vanished??