Dennis on the face of it a decent looking chart, . But the decent 850s seem to be eroded esp to the east/north/ northwest. Every thing atm points to nothing imo to anything interesting cold/wintry.
Allseasons-Si It rarely comes anywhere near the mark only in exceptional occasions. The forecast is virtually re issued every day with small tweets. If it had foundation why is it issued every day instead of every month if it has credance?
The comment ssw has been used a lot this winter. From an early cold spell in December it ran into jan ie eqbo etc. Its at a stage now where there is nothing in regard to a ssw could in effect do anything until March? Why is it when the models look poor people post 10+charts looking for cold. When its showing bang average fi is 7 days? I love cold weather and synoptics but there is nothing to suggest anything unusual for febuary heading into march imo
nick sussex yes nick its been a hard slog esp for the members on here who put a lot of time and effort on the thread. A lot of great background signals, synoptics "at times" but the heighths etc to the south seem to be an insipid winter feature.
Looking across most of the threads i think fatigue and poor output and weather as caused a lot of disappointment this winter. Early signs were looking good but things have for most been bang average. Imo i cant see anything even with a ssw. Its currently snowing heavy here but will be gone this evening. Heres hoping for one last hurrah in feb
So after looking at the mo today and giving an average assessment imo there is nothing unusual or any real lead on where the nhp is heading. "low gate" aside i cant see any strong signal for any very cold/extended or indeed wintry weather. Im not sure looking at the strat at 10pha is gaining traction. Hopefully theres an uptick in any blocking after a transient ridge but speculation can be a downfall without the subsequent data
@northwestsnowNot sure what the problem is wth the ECM. Looks pretty good unless you view it from an imby perspective Not sure why northwestsnow is on this post, sorry mate