A.J

reached 32c on my sensor.........shame about the utter lack of a proper stormy breakdown....it seems these days that even places millions of miles ooop north near the arctic circle get elevated plume storms whilst we get naff all.....last summer and this summer (so far) utterly pathetic for storms

ooh I don't know....we went to eastbourne a couple of years ago camping and thought the place was a bit of a dump.....lol

off to bed......really can't be bothered to hear about how the SE has been hammered again......one day, one day, Wilts will have it's day again lol

Reading's nott a bad shout Sam.....I'm thinking somewhere west of London looks good

a moderator perk?......damn I should ask for back pay...lolol

the trend is too far east for me though mate.....looking at the steering flows, I need more of a northerly component, looking for storms to fire west of Rennes (more towards Brest)......certainly the eastern flank looks far tastier with plenty of energy to sustain during the night........I'm going for the 'hope I'm pleasantly surprised' mode tonight, hence the banning of looking at the radar (we'll see how long that lasts...lol)

enough though in that case to safely call a no-storm show for this area....won't waste my time radar watching tonight

having perused the latest models and seen the various convective forecasts, I'll be watching the back of my eye lids

very doubtful.....a lack of instability, energy and bouyancy for areas rest of London according to hi-res (nmm) modelling)....3 key ingredients for any type of thunderstorm........hope it's modelling it all wrong and instability is further west, but I doubt it

oh wonderful, bloody Sarf East again.......what does it take to get a decent storm in my area....used to have lots now diddly squat since april last year.....overall despite looking great up to about 2 days ago, everything has it's usual easterly shunt......that's my moan for the day

Was thinking the same thing Dan....I was literally just thinking "hmm, is there a westerly bias on the NMM as everything tonight is modelled much further west than other modelling"

it's still utterly wrong, if you saw the chart for 00z you'd know why

the first one is already utterly wrong....lol

for my location, go home 18z NMM, you're drunk ! and tomorrow night, Tuted as a newt....lol

looks like a elevated storm in firing in the Channel, heading for the dorset coast

in house NMM is still quite bullish on elevated convection/storms for parts of the west country overnight, especially north of the area, Bristol/Gloucestershire/Wilts as well as Devon, whereas other model suites aren't, hence my fence sitting and radar watching

it happens a lot to be honest

god, this thread is frustrating to read at times....talk of 'non-plume events' etc.....if some think that, then they need to read what a spanish plume is, because the model outputs prog one, and have consistantly modelled one for several days now..... end of discussion on that one! Those of us who have posted regularly in the convective threads over the years has discussed plumes many a time as it it generally leads to our weather passion (storms) but it seems to be en vogue to plaster the expression 'plume' all over the model thread as if everyone's suddenly experts on them......sorry for the bluntness,and apologies if my post has offended anyone but it needs mentioning.......Have a read in the learning sub-forums for excellent threads from the likes of Nick Finnis, TWS, & John Holmes (IIRC) for understanding summer plumes over the UK

not too sure what to think about elevated storm potential here tonight, model outputs show quite a variance and radar is quite different to what is also modelled......a couple of days ago, I thought it looked very good along the M4 corridior....now if someone says to me 'will we see storms tonight?' my answer would be 'how long is a piece of string?'.....I simply don't know, I'll be radar watching from about 9pm to see what happens

Worth noting - certainly for the 06z GFS (not yet commenting on the 12z) an issue for suppression of temps until later on this week is excessive cloud cover.....Those who subscribe to NWx will have seen this on the more indepth model output charts than the freebies.....freely available FAX charts also show an almost quasi-stationary front draping the spine of the country until thursday.......In our climate, without direct insolation, 25C+ is very hard to achieve....With more in the way of sunshine later on in the week towards next weekend, temperatures will rocket.....Believe me though, low to mid 20's under heavy cloud with high humidity will feel darned warm and for quite a few, unpleasant

This one time Nick, I'm in love with your limpet trough just west of us, may it stay there a long time

Good god almighty, the publically available portfolio of model suites show a classic spanish plume with remarkably warm/hot weather, whilst taking in account what a generally miserable summer we've all had to enjoy and you're grumbling about a 'downgrade' to 28C?....Carlsberg don't do trolls, but if they did........be off with you...lol

thanks for those links, ties in with my own memories nicely

28th june 2012 was a truly remarkable day.....the previous evening elevated thunderstorms erupted over SW England and Eire as a negatively tilted shortwave trough destabilized....early the following morning (28th) Elevated convection fired wuickly (around 7am) in the Welsh Marches which quickly became severe moving NE to affect the west midlands around mid morning (My village where Ilived at the time was subject to flash flooding)...This multicell cluster maintained strength to pass through Yorks and exited the NE coast early afternoon.....Meanwhile in the clearence behind, elevated storms firing further south (midlands) quickly rooted into the boundary layer became surface based, severe and then supercellular giving fist sized hail and several tornadoes through Leicestershire and Lincolnshire. This spectacular weather was realised with about 2000j/kg of both SB & MLCAPE to tap into, something more akin to tornadic outbreaks in the mid-west....Meanwhile in the SE of England, with plenty of SBCAPE in place but a strong inversion in place, it remained dry IIRC

It will be interesting how this all evolves......current modelling infers a set up similar to June 2012 (subject to change though)