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Everything posted by A.J
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
A.J replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
for those model enthusiasts who love a bit of indepth analysis, the key number to remember is 3150 anything less and its a damp squib washout, hitting that magic number or even better, then its a guarenteed snow fest ! what is this number and why is it significant I hear you ask ? This is simple, its the amount of exclamtion marks Sheiky has used in the past week in this thread -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
A.J replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A top post as always Phil, but no doubt largely ignored by many on here because it doesnt say what they want to hear so we'll just all have to put up with pages of "major upgrade, its moved south by 25 meters and the sweet spot is right over my house etc etc etc" -
Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
A.J replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking a little further ahead for the breakdown and thaw, and here it is 30+ Celcius with a thundery plume nailed on I'll fetch me coat -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
A.J replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
no worries, I have only the barest minimum of knowledge of forecast modelling. I just love sitting back and watching everyones intereactions and passions about the weather. It shows what a mad bunch of legends we all are -
Model Output Discussion - Into February
A.J replied to damianslaw's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Contrary to the belief of some, it a computer based set of complicated equations and algorithms, and not a sentient being My morning cup of coffee is physically more likely to be ashamed of itself than a computer model -
Temperature Record Monitor Thread
A.J replied to Radiating Dendrite's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
obviouslyt not an official recording but my mum called to tell me her shade temp sensor in the garden recorded 41.3C (Ashby-de-la-launde, lincs) a couple miles to the west of Conningsby I think -
Temperature Record Monitor Thread
A.J replied to Radiating Dendrite's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
reached 36C here in sunderland 30 mins ago....crazy heat for this part of the world ! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
A.J replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
to be fair, the UKV had a signal for a few showers over the west country down to the south coast this evening so its pretty much bang on -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
A.J replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Quick summary of the outputs so far this afternoon Monday 18th July 2022 - UK Temperature record smashed, a historical once in a lifetime event...... Tuesday 19th July 2022 - Hold my beer ! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
A.J replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So the GFS models my location in the NE at 36C on Tuesday?.....one word sums it up..... Unreal! -
Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives
A.J replied to Cheshire Freeze's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hot weather life hack No. 1 Fancy escaping the heat wave? A simple solution, pop down your local DIY/Wickes and buy a really tall ladder ! -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
A.J replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
on thing that is noticable on that cam is the storm motion, man that's in a hurry, very quickly moving NEwards, and unless anything initiates considerably further west (50 miles or so) then it'll be pompey eastwards -
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards
A.J replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I remember it well Andy, greenish clouds, large hail and vivid lightning in Lyneham that day. Back to the present, I wish I were still down south, my particular part of the NE has not yet added the word 'thunderstorm' to their vocabulary, they simply never happen here -
winds really picking up now in Sunderland, and its snowing, albeit wet snow
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Hi Paul, thank you.......We moved up to Sunderland about 18 months ago....I just home from delivering in Peterlee, the sea state is still relatively benign looking out from Roker, but the skies are starting to look angry to the north, with sleet and probably some wet snow incoming. Winds are also starting to pick up noticeably...It has been quite blustery since this morning, but now a steady increase in mean speeds
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Goodness, it's been a long time since I last posted on NW....Hope everyone is doing well ! A very interesting and rather worrying night up here....I'm literally 500m from the beach, slap bang in the red warning area !!
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Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards
A.J replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
This aged well -
Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas
A.J replied to Met4Cast's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I've already told my kids it will snow but haven't yet divulged which decade..... so we're all good. .....hello to all by the way,....haven't been in here for years it seems -
Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards
A.J replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Heatwave & storms vs the TIT....the TIT wipes out all-comers (Thunderless In Tyne& Wear) -
Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards
A.J replied to Supacell's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
you miss the point....southern coastal areas have been in the hunt this week, storms along the devon & cornish coasts and plenty of distant channel lightning displays....the NE however has had very benign weather, no heatwave, apart from an occsional glimpse of some Ac Cas floating around, not one flash (distant or not) rumble or anything remotely resembling thundery activity....thats my point