A.J

looks like some storms breaking out to my S/SE.....plenty of mid-level instability...some precip reaching the ground but mostly virga from high based Ac Cas

Intersting...as per Dan's convective forecast, it looks like some elevated convection is occurring over southern counties ahead of the front

so, what's new?.....I see the Sherminator's still here......a genuine storm chasing legend that man.......flash bang, Harry, Dan, EES91, snow-joke....nice to see some familiar faces......but the most important question is 'was there any Ac Cas in Newton Poppleford today ?'

ya ya ya

It's been a looooooong time since I posted on NW, but the living leg-end is back, and is watching the hi-res models with interest for the period covering the next 48 hours !.....An active front spilling up from the south tomorrow morning with some possible elevated embedded convection, and then all eyes on what fires over Northern France/Benelux tomorrow evening

managed to squeeze a flash out of a shower that passed to my west 30 mins ago....a few more weakly electrified showers pushing up from the south coast heading due north for Bath and then onto the west midlands

same here, on the edge of the purple box, but this time I feel I am too far west, but yesterday most of the models had us too far east and look what happened!...all to play for

any chance of some proper model discussion as opposed to reams of posts saying the same thing (i.e tomorrow's hot temps)...there are other threads for current weather, guess the hotspot etc!

lightning fast.....I'll fetch me coat lol round 5, yes 5, incoming!

the biggest story of the night though is the serious outbreak of measels in central southern england....alarming!

so then, just to clear up any confusion, you're saying you had a bit of a thundery shower?

'scuse the language but all I can say is 'holy shitpants!!!!'.........what a round 3!.....power went down, roiling clouds spewing out copious bolts of lightning, CG's, anvil crawlers, biiiiiig hail, enough water to make me think we'd been hit by a tsunami.........oh, and hello, here's come round 4 to my south!

yup, here's come some big hail!

round 2?....how about round 3, there's a new storm developing in situ, rightt overhead, still no ppn, although the multicell cluster over salibury plain might soon change that!...looks especially nasty!

words fail me, a simply incredible display of elevated lightning!!......the best I have ever seen and then some!......no rain at all just an orgasm of light!! and round 2 is incoming from the south and this looks particularly potent with a strong hail core by the looks of the radar

distant lightning to my South and south west (presumably from the devon & dorset storms)

Yes, I'd like an explanation into what are you referring to in that edited image?......lol

pokey little number just gone up near Barnstaple/Bideford.......discrete cells over northern france drifting NNE, and now strikes detected west of the channel islands.......lights, action, camera!

aha, unless there's anaprop issues, the first discrete cells have fired in the english channel west of the channel Islands edit, unsurprisingly, there are anaprop issues....bugger ....lol.....as they've just disappeared

current state of play here in north Wilts 1) looking west, patchy Alto Cumulus 2) Looking south, patchy Ac Cas (note sign of towering) 3) Looking south east, thickening Ac Cas with definite signs of towering )

Now you're talking.......personally I'd mud wrestle my own grandmother for a good storm and uber large bag of heatwave doritos....lol

Andoversford as in along the A40?.....if so a good spot....I would recommend as well Birdlip on the A417 north of Cirencester, it's on top of an escarpment offering panoramic views to the West and North (to Wales and almost as far north as Birmingham) ....I've watched many a storm there, the views are fantastic and it's roughly only 10 miles or so from Andoversford

I will be soooo glad when thursday is over so we can get back to sensible model discussion....lol.......It's been like obsessive compulsive disorder in here the past couple of days with the fixation in the majority of posts for high temperatures! short term modelling (overnight suites) continues to show a risk of strong possible severe thunderstorms tonight over the west country, spilling up into northern England, but as mentioned elsewhere, storms may well start to decay as atmospheric profiles become saturated thus limiting lightning potential as we move into the second part of the night....Wednesday will be all about how much detritus will be left over which will inhibit temps if said storm remnants linger....Thursday will be hot and sunny for most, with an increasing risk of surface based (initially) storms breaking out over CS England moving north (which may well inhbit surface temps due to attendant cloud cover)with elevated imports perhaps brushing the SE overnight thursday...Friday seems a decent but cooler day for the majority (still very warm in the SE) as a complex area of low pressure anchored off Ireland throws a series of fronts across the country from west to east....Saturday becomes interesting as the fronts stall out for a while over the spine of the country which increases the risk of heavy thundery rain for many given the marked boundary between cooler, fresher air to the west and risidual heat and convective energy to the east, certainly a feature to watch the next few days

Slap bang in the middle of the severe risk area......that'll do nicely....Carlsberg don't storm risk maps, but if they did......... edit....and in the Estofex level 2 zone

pretty crap then for most of us