A.J

Looks to be over the North Midlands to me Luke, at least on radar, as areas of moderate PPN are still pushing northwards through the midlands with a visible clearance pushing in from the SW.....and overhead it's dead calm, indicitive of being right in the middle of the LLC (low level convergence) zone

just noticed TG's forecast at TORRO..This is interesting IMO, even though there's a lot of low level 'muck' straddling the centre of England, but some nice parameters in place for possible elevated convection?...Steep mid-level lapse rates, plenty of Multi-layer CAPE & bouyancy, a mid-level dry air incursion?....I see Dan on the thread (Staplehurst)..What's your thoughts bud?

will someone please turn off the 'drizzle' tap!......In a prime area today, latest GFS & hi-res output put a LLC slap bang over the north & west midlands, sitting there until the overnight period...Should any substantial cloud breaks occur I would expect the extra forcing to aid development of heavy showers and thunderstorms right across the Midlands into parts of East Anglia, and storms will appear almost stationary on radar as they back build along outflow boundaries...A weakly sheared enviroment so I personally wouldn't anticipate well organized thunderstorms, as updrafts will be readily swamped by descending rain/cooler although the odd stronger storm isn't out of the question......The main question is, is simply will the cloud break enough along the LLC zone to allow insolation to fire convection?....I have my doubts TBH Your storm risk zone is too far south IMO

A pleasant morning here.....partly cloudy skies, occasional spells of sunshine and feeling fairly warm with a light westerly breeze.....but this heralds a change later on this afternoon and into the evening as a frontal system encroaches from the atlantic bringing some potentially heavy rain to all parts of the region, clearing tomorrow to heavy, blustery possibly thundery showers....talking of which, yesterday's showers failed to materialize, well, at least north of Brum they failed, as it ended up a lovely day here, dry, sunny & pleasantly warm!

Hi Mulzy......TB knows exactly what it is and means, he chooses to abbreviate in his own way....and with that...back to the models...ta!

surprisingly, not even a sprinkle here which was going against the forecast somewhat...Nice to see some in the sarf-east finally getting their slice of the storm 'pie' (don't ever complain about not getting a storm again!...lol) and still some lingering activity in a line stretching west to east south of London...Good call from Tony Gilbert over at TORRO & UKWW, he got the forecast spot on & also from our very own Nick Finnis

blimey, you've have pooped yourself if you'd been here for the MCS that hit a couple or so weeks ago....for a 20 minute period at its peak it was unleashing for than a rumble per second making it sound like a constant roar of thunder...had to be heard to be believed!

I must admit though, I'm rather looking forward to seeing the storm reports on here as the day progresses as I think down south it could be a cracker today for storms....Not expecting much up here in the West Midlands, maybe a rogue shower. Most of the showers seem to be developing south and west of Birmingham transiting quickly ESE, so I'm thinking west or SW of London to be the sweet spot today

I would suggest reading yesterday's thread then Robin tsk tsk

Hard to believe that just 20 or so miles away there is a thunderstorm (admittedly a weak pulse type storm) whilst here it's the same as yesterday, damp, drizzly, overcast & cold! Damn you, sarf-easteners, hogging all the storms that'll come today, just like you did yesterday....damn you!

Did you not catch the drenching this morning?...I knew it was localized whilst viewing the radar, but considering how long it lasted, I didn't realise it was that localized!

all in all a truly horrible day in these parts....a downpour of biblical proportions this morning followed by steady drizzle all afternoon to date...anything is preferable to this dross!

Can we stick to what the model outputs are actually showing as opposed to having an off-topic rant at what you think they might be showing beyond the furthest possible realms of FI

torrential rain here....flooding wil be a serious issue, if it isn't already

quite remarkable contrasts Mark....I'm about 4 miles from the lichfield road as the crow flies, and yet barely a drop here in Penkridge....the radar has heavy PPN less than a mile from my front door

Just to my north over Stafford Bish...dry here

Nice line of heavy showers building here in the west Midlands developing along a line of LLC so some forcing there with a modicum of energy & bouyancy...Lapse rates are average though so unlikey to go 'bang' IMHO, but still noteworthy for the chance of some torrential downpours

just done a bit of 'mock the week' style research...So, Lincolnshire gets lots of storms, thus lots of rain, hence would explain why they all have webbed feet, & when the TV forecast comes on, they remark...'Looky looky, weather god in the magic box go speaky speaky!'.... (Apologies to all you lovely Lincs folks, but just like my idol Frankie Boyle, I'm dour & bitter...lol)

absolute monsoon downpour here currently!...checked the v6 radar, and this shower didn't exist 30 mins ago...now that's what I call explosive development!

in light of the 'red alert' warning from the met office I'd better give my old man a ring and spread the word...He lives in Newton Abbot, which is prone to flooding, from the River Teign and from run off water from Dartmoor

Nah, sounds more like a packet of Spanish 'Wotsits'...lol

Ladies & Gentlemen....I have an announcement to make...... 'El Brumo II' is coming!!!

Wow...all to play for...exciting or indeed worrying times ahead depending on how you view this type of weather... ...Just going back to Andy's post earlier, here's the radar at two hourly intervals from the NW archive for 20/7/07.....nasty looking circulation and ppn arc indeed...

great minds think alike Andy, I was just thinking that!.....If I recall the deluge came in from the SE from the near continent, and on the radar it looked like a tropical cyclone with a pronounced spiral arc of ppn (with embedded thunderstorms) as it moved SE to NW

See my earlier post Luke, I've already posted on that...My feeling is that some elevated thunderstorms may develop to the south east of the region and drift NWwards dying out as they do so, leaving more traditional dynamic frontal rainfall