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NJWx

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Everything posted by NJWx

  1. seems like the stormunderwent the Eyewall Replacement Cycle, or something to the extent of that. Eitherway, the eye replaced itself. The storm should bomb out soon, again, before landfall. Truly a sad situation here.
  2. For those looking for info/streaming data out of us stations/New Orleans: New Orleans TV Stations: NBC: www.wdsu.com/index.html ABC: abc26.trb.com/ CBS: www.wwltv.com/ Fox: www.fox8live.com/ New Orleans Newspapers: NOLA: www.nola.com New Orleans Radio: WYNK: www.wynk.com/main.html WYLD: www.wyldfm.com/main.htmlWTUL: dreamland.tcs.tulane.edu/...ndex2.php# Biloxi/Gulfport/Mobile Area TV stations: ABC: www.wlox.com/ NBC: www.wpmi.com/ CBS: www.wkrg.com/ Baton Rouge TV Stations: NBC: www.nbc33tv.com/ FOX: www.fox44.com/ ABC: www.2theadvocate.com/index.shtml CBS: www.wafb.com/ Baton Rouge Radio Stations: WJBO: www.wjbo.com/main.html
  3. the superdome, home to this years superbowl i believe is looking very bad to me right now. Im not so sure it can withstand 200mph gusts.
  4. still people trying to get out..they better hurry..you can see the storm behind them
  5. - FIRST BANDS HIT NEW ORLEANS- (via cool Satellite/Radar Overlay)
  6. first bands hit...over 100,000 people still Trapped in the city as the monster gets closer...
  7. youve got to be joking. Nobody is lucky to be in the path of this monster. The city of New Orleans is BELOW SEA LEVEL and if this hurricane hits, the city will be completely demolished.
  8. I wouldnt be surprised if the next advisory came in with pressure below 900mb. The waters the hurricane is sitting in are over 90 degrees temp.
  9. Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 24 Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2005 Katrina is maintaining a classic presentation on satellite images...and category 5 intensity. The central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter plane at 1755z and 1923z was 902 mb...which is the fourth lowest on record in the Atlantic Basin behind hurricane Gilbert of 1988...the Labor Day hurricane of 1935...and hurricane Allen of 1980. Having said that...data from the stepped-frequency microwave radiometer instrument on board the aircraft suggest that the surface to 700 mb flight level wind ratio is not quite as large as we typically use...and the initial intensity is adjusted slightly to 145 kt. Hurricanes do not maintain such great intensity for very long. However there are no obvious large-scale mechanisms...such as increased vertical shear...to weaken Katrina. The hurricane is likely to make landfall with category 4 or 5 intensity. There is not much change to the track forecast philosophy. Initial motion is about 315/11. Katrina is expected to gradually turn northward into a break in the subtropical ridge associated with a large mid-latitude cyclone near the Great Lakes. The 12z GFDL hurricane model's track has shifted a little westward...as has the latest NOGAPS run. The official forecast is slightly to the west and slightly faster than the previous NHC track. This is very close to both the dynamical model consensus... and to the latest FSU superensemble track. Among our most reliable models...only the U.K. Met. Office is significantly to the east of the official forecast track. It should be noted that the small change in the official forecast track is essentially at the noise level. One should not focus on the exact track...particularly in the case of a hurricane as large as this one. Destructive effects will likely be felt well away from the center and it is not possible to specify which counties or parishes will experience the worst conditions. On the basis of aircraft flight level and SFMR surface wind data...the wind radii have been expanded even more over the northern semicircle. Hurricane force winds are forecast to spread at least 150 N mi inland along the path of Katrina. Consult inland hurricane and tropical storm warnings issued by National Weather Service forecast offices. Forecaster Pasch forecast positions and Max winds initial 28/2100z 26.9n 89.0w 145 kt 12hr VT 29/0600z 28.3n 89.8w 145 kt 24hr VT 29/1800z 30.6n 89.9w 130 kt...inland 36hr VT 30/0600z 33.4n 89.2w 60 kt...inland 48hr VT 30/1800z 36.0n 87.5w 35 kt...inland 72hr VT 31/1800z 41.0n 81.5w 30 kt...inland 96hr VT 01/1800z 48.0n 72.5w 25 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 02/1800z...absorbed $$
  10. Winds have gone down to 165 but i think thats because its undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Should strengthen again by tonight. Pressure down too 902. For those who dont know, the lowest american hurricane recorded pressure was somewhere around 885 with Hurricane Gilbert.
  11. 5PM UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HURRICANE KATRINA 158 WTNT32 KNHC 282041 TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005 ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND FROM WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM DESTIN FLORIDA EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA...AND FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY UNTIL LANDFALL. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE INTENSITY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. KATRINA IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST. SOUTHWEST PASS...NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 53 MPH. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 902 MB...26.64 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. SOME LEVEES IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA COULD BE OVERTOPPED. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...AND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...26.9 N... 89.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 902 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT. FORECASTER PASCH
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