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    Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

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  1. After last Winters double Easterly, it would be prudent to remember just how often these situations,sometimes even shown in the 'reliable timeframes' have gone the way of the pear down the years.I think we even lost an Easterly with 48hrs notice once. Not really in my nature to be negative in life but the saying ' if it can go wrong it will go wrong' seems to be the best way of viewing anything from that direction during the Winter, come May...the perfect synoptic set up of course if it were Mid January. ( for some reason My auto correct kept going with " come Theresa May the perfect synoptic set up had it been January" given the state of politics right now I can't see that coming off any more than an Easterly!
  2. Couldn't agree more with your thoughts.I know for many here it is all about the hunt for snow, i do get that...and some folk are happy to wait patiently under a 'holding position' HP slug pumped up from the Azores for weeks on end. Personally my interest is in extremes too, they don't even have to be that extreme to give me a buzz. The squall line that develops and gives us hail and thunder and fantastic cloudscapes on a blue sky winters day, the deepening low that might produce high wind gusts,I could go on! All absent overall from our Winter for the most part while we wait patiently or in some cases impatiently for something, anything to happen. At least the week ahead holds some interest,the frost this morning was stunning and the polar maritime flow might throw up a few troughs and attendant interest.
  3. Optimistic this morning that the late January into early February time frame that was touted earlier in the month as the likely changeover period to something more exceptional cold/ snow wise may come to pass after all. I think what we have seen in recent days is the models reacting a little too quickly to the underlying change ahead.The times this has happened down the years are too numerous to keep count of. Anything now from the 26th of the month will be subject to upgrades in the coming days with the usual model 'ups and downs' before settling on a concencous on Wednesday 23rd. Personally I think the 29th will be the day where a freeze proper arrives with snow widespread from the 30th. ' We have lost some of the Stella charts this week but were they really that good? How many 24hr sets of runs showed anything akin to February last year on the table? I think the majority showed an Easterly of sorts but drawn from SE Europe backing to an Easterly over Southern Scandanavia. The fear was a more marginal event for some if that had all played out. Now all possibilities are back on the table,including something exceptional for all of us in terms of snowfall and depth of cold.
  4. Spot on, a post a couple of days ago that may have pointed out that what we are seeing now from the GFS and ECM would have got dogs abuse aimed at anyone relatively new to posting there. Guess what, a forum 'heavyweight'with the same info at their disposal but a coldies viewpoint would have been lorded for their amazing insight and received 50 odd 'likes' The newbie returns to lurking, ashamed of themselves for daring to say anything! This is not to be confused when a different type of poster only appears to wind up cold lovers when hopes turn to dust, they are not lurkers but quite regular here, never really dealt with as they are technically not breaking posting guidelines in that MOD thread.
  5. Moderaters have a really tough job in there without doubt. They are all human of course and follow the same guidelines, but the interpretation of what goes from time to time is differing to put it mildly. I have posted a little more in the mod thread this winter, as a long term lurker in there I felt I had something to contribute at times so why not? Twice in the last 24hrs I have had posts deleted that have strayed ( hands up) a little off topic. Some discussion about the various data that is provided to the BBC from Meteogroup , and how the Met office have other models they use ( a link to the model discussion but a little tenuous maybe) This morning a jokey thread about the models and brexit. Like I say, wrong place for them both technically but quite heavy handed when time and again certain members are able to carry on pretty much as they please. If some of this back slapping and back stabbing was cut out and it was purely a model discussion I would have no problem with any of this. There was a reason Mr Ferguson left, and it certainly wasn't a bit of humour here and there.
  6. Depends who posts the humour And of course there are those without much humour in their souls at any time of day sadly! Would rather the one line bickering that infests the thread be stamped out properly.
  7. One straw to clutch regarding the ECM this morning, perhaps the uncertainty over Brexit is causing data issues.. Unpalatable GFS runs recently were blamed by some on the U.S shutdown. Well, I tried
  8. The BBC don't have access to any more data than we view on here to the best of my knowledge. You are far better trying to garner some insight from ITV or CH4 who still use the Met office for their forecasts.
  9. Quick question for those with Knowledge on SSW events. Given we seem to be on the cusp of a return to winter 'proper' and the clear evidence this time that the December strat event has played a part in where we are getting to, as was the case on two or three occasions in the last 10 years, did we have the same knowledge of these events twenty or thirty years ago. There was a real lack of deep cold and snowfall on this island of ours during the 90s and the early part of the 21st century, ( the so called modern winters!)did warmings take place? And if they did why no measurable effect on our climate? Were other drivers at play to stop anything notable occurring?
  10. Just as I said in an earlier post today, the default position of the GFS,blow up the Azores High. It often plays this game in the summer and promises a heatwave of course. Not sure I could stand a return as flagged here of a continuation of the weather dross of the last month!
  11. The GFS reminding us of New year resolutions to change this or that and looking at a myriad of amazing solutions to the uninspiring drudgery, only for the back end of January to see the 'safe' option settled on again, the bloated Azores High taking more than a passing interest in our shores. The six pack and a clear path to early retirement has to be for others to prove possible first before jumping on board properly, I doff my cap toward you ECM and UKMO.
  12. As a fan of all things extreme weather wise,the last month has been a great cure for insomnia. The 'limpet' High that has been floating around our locale since December 23rd has been hard to view other than a month of winter wasted. A holding position for UK cold was a more positive view, the good it has done us at this stage seems to be the cold pool drawn down to our East. It may still have to be viewed in a positive light if we can get the NW to SE track of unsettled conditions heralded by the models into next week, as largely we would still have the cold to tap into to our East. The next step has to be the movement of our winds from NW to NE or East after the NW flow to draw in what is left of our 'holding position' HP cold to our East. Simple really, how an extreme weather fan tries to rationalise this last month!
  13. Remember that well,of course nothing in Hastings,but work took me round the clockwise section of the M25 that day. As I neared the Chessington Exit the Green and pleasant land changed. I witnessed half the landscape North to South change from Green to White,with a divide that was as etched onto the Winter landscape as if created by an artist's brush. A memory that has stuck with me in particular was one farm field, half white and the other green,a frontal dividing line in the most incredible clarity.
  14. I think the expectations versus potential is the problem here, you will have resident experts flagging up timeframes for potential and that is mixed in with a few favourable model runs...Bingo for some, you get talk of winter tyres being needed 'next week'. The balloon deflates when another chance is missed, but a chance was all it was and I'm not sure anyone has said the background signals are a garuntee for UK snow as some seem to imagine.
  15. A cursory glance at the output again this morning looks as though the 'hunt for cold' or cold 'proper' in terms of nationwide snow may go past any mid January prediction..... However, on a rather uninspiring Monday morning, I bring news from my very own 'mystic Meg' that folk would do well not to laugh off too quickly. The conversation was as follows M" Have you heard the news ducky? SJ "what news?" M " well the word I don't like to say,because it will cause me so many Problems!" SJ " you mean snow?" No, nothing on the horizon,when was this for and who said it? M "The weather person on Meridian news (local to SE England) said that towards the end of this month there is a much higher chance of snow,they got it spot on way in advance last winter! SJ "Don't worry, I'm sure it won't happen. Anyway, Does this 'forecaster' have access to 'in-house' super computers running projections and taking into account the SSW event I wonder? Perhaps a big straw clutch to spread some chear this morning from me,but we can live in hope. Hopefully the saying 'Mum is always right'will come to pass.