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sunnijim

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    Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

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  1. Reasons to be cheerful on this grey start to the working week. We have a large Scandanavian HP cell controlling our weather TODAY, not predicted in the outer reaches of the JMA in mid February. We are in the middle of November, however this all plays out for our shores between now and months end, we are as certain as can be that by the weeks end a cold pool has been drawn in nicely over Russia and parts of Scandinavia. None of the models, M.O longer range outlooks seem to be keen on 'raging zonality' that would sweep the aforementioned cold pooling away. Building blocks in place? Despite two or three named storms this Autumn, the energy to feed a mobile state of affairs never seems to last, generally any upsurge has been fed by an old Hurricane ' mixing things up' on our side of the pond for a short while. This state of play has been going on for over 12 months now, the ' beast from the East' episodes this year trying to play out to some extent again this week.The summer past has been a continuation of the HP dominated theme. If we find the models toying with the idea of our shores being influenced by an Atlantic driven agenda in the early stages of FI we have to remain optimistic.Another building of heights in a similar area could well reep rich rewards next time. The cold ( unlike now) would be ready to be tapped into to our East, North sea temperatures falling away nicely this week would be at a level next time to promote convective snow showers rather than the mizzle productions this week. # Next time.? Could be another close but no cigar for us of course, but if we are in a repeating pattern as I believe we are,at some point this winter, we will,I believe be rewarded. Why all this optimism? Not scientific I guess, but I was always taught this by my weather obsessed late father. " The trend is your friend"
  2. Watching the models try to come to some sort of agreement for what may occur toward months end is a far more relaxing experience in the ' comfort 'of mid November than say, the fag end of February. A lot of talk of 'slow burners' with 'building blocks' being put in place. That may well and hopefully be the case for a proper freeze towards months end and early December. It so often seems the case that so much of winter has past before a model scenario like this starts to play out, you are left thinking that we just don't have the time for a 'long route' to cold to play out. On this occasion if it does go 'bust' on us we can view this as a good start, and fingers crossed a trend this winter that will at some point pay out with snow by the bucket load!
  3. HI Lottie! It's like a decade or so ago again tonight conversing with you and lsf on a weather forum again! This mobile spell of weather has produced 75mm of rain here in the last week, the majority falling on Wednesday and Friday. Let's hope it is snowfall rather than thunderstorms that have us all meeting in the not too distant future.
  4. Hey lsf! I have left the snow and storm sweet spot! Turns out your part of the world hasn't been so bad in the last few years
  5. Torrential rain, hail and gusty winds in the last half an hour as a storm cell ran onto the Sussex coast off the channel. Several loud cracks of thunder, sheet lightning and 3 super CC forks witnessed overhead.
  6. Yup, crazy little storm on the Sussex coast right now, biblical rain and hail, wild gusty winds and several super CC forks and booming thunder! Best storm since early Summer.
  7. Flashes and rumbles on occasion from the convective band moving East across SE England tonight Every two or three minutes here on the Sussex coast.
  8. Woken at 630am to some shot gun thunder and a nice monsoon style spell of rain.Two or three further more distant rumbles and flashes followed. SE LONDON.
  9. 66mph at 2000 Portland. Certainly at the upper end of the predicted gusts so far. Pushing toward 50mph now on a regular basis further East on the South coast. Coupled with the heavy rain, as wild a night's weather that I can remember this year.
  10. A very simplistic look at the overall patterns almost a year on from the unusual warmth, Saharan dust and afternoon darkness that was a talking point, I find myself in the garden with the tan being topped up again. To me the lack of any real 'ooomph' to the Atlantic driven agenda has been a theme for over a year now. Various strong HP cells dominating from all points of the compass in that time. AS was the case in March 2018 into April 2018, looking at a set up that took us from deep winter into high summer in the space of 3 weeks, Why would the reverse not be possible now? Given the general state of the NH pattern....
  11. Incredible really, especially as forecasts earlier in the weekend had the SE in the damp,colder and drizzly conditions from today onward.The uncertain movement of the Portugese tropical storm has certainly played a part in 'buckling' the front last night and sending it packing West again. Clear blue skies on the Sussex coast and 21c right now.Just like high summer.
  12. Hi Tom Incredible really, tropical downpours this morning as we come under influence of the Portugese Hurricane ( yes I am writing about London in Mid October) Looks like the front may buckle and back West later, allowing another couple of days of warm and bright weather in this corner!
  13. Recording 22c last night in SE London at 2300!
  14. sunnijim

    Autumn 2018

    Yeah, still pretty impressive! Not 100% sure what we maxed at in September? 26 c on the Nose I think? Noted on the Net weather obs a 26.3c at Donna Nook 1500. Somewhere surely will hit the 80f today when the final totals are in?
  15. sunnijim

    Autumn 2018

    26c now being recorded in a couple of places. Seventh month in succession where temperatures have hit 80f if We move a tad higher today.
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