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Les Penniston

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    Winter weather chat, moans, banter and ramps

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, sparky1972 said:

    well as much as i hate to say it this winter is close to being a bust cold and snow wise,i know people will say there is plenty of winter left but with cold being delayed and delayed, rarely making in any closer than the magical day 10, i think its going to be one of them close but no cigar kinda winters, still, on the plus side its keeping the heating bill down and half marathon running training much more enjoyable.

    All ive seen is members looking so far ahead on the hunt for cold discussion and getting excited over charts that were never going to materialise, so pleased no one is making any comments on there no more, the killer has been the stubborn high pressure whether anything changes in the next couple of weeks will have to see.

    Les

    • Like 1

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

    Just for a bit of fun and not to be taken seriously, at this range. Saw the CFS for Xmas Day, last night and had an immediate "flashback" to December 1981.

    DEC.7th.1981

    archives-1981-12-7-0-0.png

    The weather associated with the above chart, ushered in that memorable cold spell, which lasted right up until the Xmas holiday period. I lived in Camberwell S.E.London at the time. A "runner" developed S.E of Iceland and tracked S,E, towards Ireland.Heavy rain, "turned" to heavy snow at breakfast time and caused transport disruption throughout the South East. See below for a description of that severe, wintry spell, which lasted from the 8th to the 27th December.This  taken from Trevor Harley's excellent British Weather, website:

    "1981 A wonderful month: the coldest this century (0.3C CET), and also very snowy. It started and ended mild, but there was a severe wintry spell from the 8th to the 27th. As the month started a warm front moving around a large high SW of Ireland brought temperatures of 15C to Aberdeen on the 3rd. As the high slipped away cold fronts brought progressively colder air south. Very cold air with hail and snow reached Shetland on the 4th. A depression moved southeast across the country on the 7th, bringing some very cold air south after it. A high developed over Greenland. Rain turned to heavy snow, with a sharp temperature fall, on the 8th; here was transport havoc in London following the snow. There was freezing fog on the 10th. There were some exceptional temperatures in a northerly airflow. On the 11th, the minimum around Glasgow was -13C, and the maximum the next day only -5C. As a low crossed northern France on the 11th, there was widespread heavy snowfall in the south (26 cm at Heathrow). Clearing skies, fresh snow, still air, Arctic air, all add up to one thing: very low temperatures. Hence the following night it was even colder: the minimum at Shawbury (Shrops.) was -22.6C on the night of the 11-12th, a maximum of -12.1C the following day, and then a minimum of -25.1C on the night of the 12-13th. It was already down to -22C by 6pm on the 12th! This was the lowest reading in December this century until 1995. I remember we sat around cheering the termperature down those nights. Temperatures of -20C were quite widespread. Another depression gave a real blizzard (snow and wind speeds of 95 mph in the south west) on the 13th. A storm surge up the Bristol Channel led to extensive flooding. The Queen had to stay the night in a local pub in the Cotswolds as rocks were blocked. By this time there were 10" of snow in London, and 3' drifts at Hawes in the Yorkshire Dales. There were gales and flooding in the south on the 14th as it turned slightly milder, with gales and rain and a rapid thaw. More snow on high ground in the west on the 15th-16th, and in Scotland on the 17th. Flooding in the Bristol Channel area.High winds added to the widespread disruption: on the 19th the Penlee lifeboat capsized, with the loss of 16 hands. (A reminder that however much we enjoy severe weather, it can be tragic for some.) The weather then turned cold again, with more snow, particularly on the 20th in the east. There was snow on the ground, but no snow fall on the 25th, so not a technical white Christmas. There was a lot of dense freezing fog around. Snow lay for three weeks in many places.

    CFS CHART XMAS DAY 2018

    cfs-0-696.png?18

    The above chart a remarkable similarity, to December 1981. Although the High Pressure, perhaps a tad too, "Bowling Ball", to be sucked up towards, Greenland. Dec.1981, was especially wintry from the Midlands, northwards. An unusual synoptic pattern ensued, after the 8th. The south had a milder interlude but the north was entreched in the bitter air.

    We were surrounded by Atlantic lows but although they tried they failed to dislodge the entrenched cold until just after, Xmas Day. The breakthrough of the Atlantic, as Trevor Harley suggests, finally started to take place on the 27th.

    27th DEC.1981.

    archives-1981-12-27-12-0.png

    Now, I'm not suggesting this pattern will evolve into reality but it struck me how similar, those two charts are. Would be an exciting way to finish off Christmas Day, though!! :whistling::cold:

    Regards,

    Tom. :hi:

    Thanks for the above post great memories the 7th was a Monday had a week in Buxton [with school] the snow they got was great to see compared to living on the east coast bar the beast from the east. The 13th we had a blizzard in Lincolnshire the snow was on the ground till boxing day, back then was a case of watching the BBC weather after the news and listening to Radio 4. Regarding the modules i remember the forecasters saying about knife edge situations back then saying the mild would push through but the cold stayed and was prolonged.

    Interesting to see whats happening now but sometimes in my years of watching the cold can come unexpectedly and produce something great so lets hope so.

     

    Les 

    • Like 6

    Model output discussion - into 2018

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 minutes ago, oldsnowywizard said:

    I have been a member for a long time.. i dont post that much as I live in Switzerland..however my years of chasing the snow flake for the UK keeps me tapped in to the daily charts, forecasts, wishes, arguments and let downs. I am exceptionally disappointed with the childish undetone and verbal rants of some of the posters (some who should know better). You all are exceptionally lucky to have people on here who provide their THOUGHTS regularly on their OPINION of what COULD happen. They might be RIGHT, they might be WRONG... but they make this forum interesting becuase they are taking their time to give everyone ideas, knowledge and experience. Please have RESPECT for posters and do not start to antagonize becuase something didnt go the way they said. THE WEATHER DOES WHAT THE WEATHER DOES. 

    A huge thanks to the members for their contributions over the years

    Good post same here long time member and as usual each winter looking at charts to far in advance some never learn.

     

    Les

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion; into 2015

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well this will be my 11th winter of model watching never say to much but do plenty of reading and unfortunately some never learn and want to write a winter off before it starts, whatever the models show is based on computers and data, some years a cold spell develops out of nothing and they are probably the best ones rather than a raging easterly showing for days to be let down at the last minute.

     

    The weather whatever should be enjoyed, the models are a guide only and instead of posting because we are not getting what we want is a bit pointless, we have a good two and a half months to enjoy so some should sit back and enjoy. January and February are to me the best months for cold and snow so i will just see what we get, if nothing then theres next winter of model watching.

     

    Regards

    Les

    • Like 6

    Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion 15/01/13 18z------>

    in Regional

    Posted

    Just had a look in the model thread, i didn't have to dodge flying toys and dummies but had to laugh at some still loo

    king deep into FI when theres the possibility of

    something very special only a few hours away..

    Still coming down over here, that many gritters have gone up and down that they've resurfaced the road. I still feel the same rage at gritters that i use to have as a kid, only

    difference now is i don't throw snowballs at their windscreens. whistling.gif

    cheers mate i drive gritters in lincolnshire

    Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion 15/01/13 18z------>

    in Regional

    Posted

    You are probably right mate as apart from Tuesday, snow showers have been very hit and miss and most have stayed out at sea. I did watch Calendar weather though and he said snower showers throughout the whole weekend, Paul Hudson just mentioned snow fluffies. I think the radar might be more useful as has been the case for you guys in Yorkshire this evening.

    depends what develops over the weekend which isnt forecasted at the moment

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