Paranoid

Nadine seems to be doing fairly well compared to the other storms in the deep tropics this season. Also, random fact: no "N" storm in the Atlantic has ever exceeded Category 1 strength.

We may have Hurricane Michael very soon, the satellite images seem to show an eye appearing on IR and visible images. The NHC did note that an eye was present on microwave imagery. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/13L/13L_floater.html

Another depression has just formed out in the central Atlantic. Not expected to last very long, but then again, they said the same about Kirk which went on to become a Category 2. Expected to become TS Michael in a day or so (the 2nd earliest 13th storm on record by some margin if that happens). 000 WTNT33 KNHC 032059 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012 500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012 ...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.6N 42.2W ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

A FISH is a storm that stays out to sea without affecting land. I think it comes from "fish spinner".

Just been upgraded to Tropical Storm Leslie. Worth noting that we are actually around a day ahead of the 2005 season at this point (only 1995 was more active by this date), although i doubt we'll maintain that level of activity throughout the entire season. 000 WTNT62 KNHC 301730 TCUAT2 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012 ...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS... DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995. SUMMARY OF 0200 PM...1800 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 44.3W ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

NHC have upped 98L to near 100%, so we should have TD12 or TS Leslie by the 1500GMT advisory.

This one seemed to pop up suddenly, was only listed at 50% earlier today. Unlikely to be any threat to land and doesn't look like it will get particularly strong according to the NHC. First advisory below. 000 WTNT31 KNHC 282033 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012 500 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...NO THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 43.9W ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM SW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

I know they're very difficult to forecast, but what are the chances of EWRCs affecting how much Isaac strengthens? I think (if i remember correctly) Gustav and Ike in 2008 didn't strengthen much despite a lot of warm water in the GOM partly due to undergoing eyewall replacements.

If 96L is TS Debbie, it will be the earliest 4th storm on record by almost two weeks (current record is Hurricane Dennis of 2005, which formed on the 5th July).

The CMC model made 96L into a fairly nasty looking system. What are SSTs and shear like over the GOM at the mo?

I know a fair few hurricanes have maintained Hurricane intensity at very high latitudes, but i was more wondering about how many had actually attained hurricane status for the first time at a high latitude. I think Hurricane 2 is probably the record which was a fair bit further north than i thought. We've had quite a lot of early storms this season, are there any seasons with analogues to this?

Just noticed how far north Chris actually is. What's the highest latitude a storm has become a Hurricane at in the Atlantic? I imagine Chris can't be far off the record.

Now officially upgraded. Also this is a fairly rare case of a Hurricane in June, let alone one over these SSTs. 000 WTNT33 KNHC 211453 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032012 1100 AM AST THU JUN 21 2012 ...CHRIS BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.1N 43.2W ABOUT 625 MI...1005 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CHRIS IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND CHRIS IS EXPECT TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON FRIDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

The weather on the webcam looks as terrible there as it is here, you can see stuff being blown around (if you can see past all the dust and water that's stuck to the lens). Odd as the forecast on the IMO showed light winds, maybe it's a bit windier near the coast.

Whatever it is, sounds like it was focused in the West Midlands judging by people saying they felt it shake the house, seemed to be little more than a thud for me.

Yeah i heard it too, seems like everyone in the northern part of Warwickshire heard it. Small tremor or an explosion somewhere maybe?

It got to -20c in December 2010 i think, or at least some places were very close, i can certainly remember it being -19c or -20c at Topcliffe.

I'm not sure about the VEI 7 classification, Pinatubo was on the low end of VEI 6 and i only know of one eruption from from Laacher See. Doesn't look like there's much information on it out on the interweb.

Not sure if the volume high enough, i think Katla can manage floods with discharges of around 400,000 cubic metres a second which is pretty massive, but not enough to have an effect on ocean circulations (at least i can't remember there being any climatic disruption during the 1750s). Floods need to have discharges on the order of millions of cubic metres per second to affect the circulation in any big way i think.

This might not be quite on topic for the model discussion thread, so apologies in advance if it isn't, but that low on the JMA looks like it could bring some quite intense winds for the Northeast. Are there any estimates on the sort of winds that could be expected from that?

I think i'll go for 6.4, but i have a horrible feeling in my mind that it will be warmer than that. Hope not, i enjoy the nice crisp mornings you get in winter.

I think it's at least in part due to trade winds; the prevailing winds in that part of the world blow northwestwards which guides most hurricanes up into the Caribbean or the East Coast of America. Also, further south than about 5' of the equator, the Coriolis force is usually too weak to sustain the rotation of tropical systems, meaning that places like Brazil and the Caribbean coast of South America are usually spared landfalls from Hurricanes. The big gap in the middle of the Atlantic west of Africa is due to the Azores high, which is usually strong enough that Hurricanes can't travel through it so they have to travel around it (the position of this is a pretty major factor on whether storms will be sent into the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico or the East Coast). Not sure how helpful (or correct) that is, but i think that's the general gist behind why they follow those traditional paths.

Try this site WM, most of the data does come from the met office so there's a lot of grey arrows, but it still has some reporting stations so better than nothing i guess. http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Looks like it would be a beautiful place to visit in the Autumn or Winter, rather challenges my view of Spain as an arid and bare place. Certainly when it comes to places that get a fair amount of snow, Spain doesn't exactly leap to mind, keep forgetting it has much higher mountains than we do.

Definitely looks like a Cat 4 already to me; eye is pretty much totally clear and there's a ring of deep convection surrounding it. I'd say next advisory will put it up to 135-140mph and pressure between 940 and 945mb.