snowflakey

A

A slight chance of retrogression up towards Greenland maybe ?

I really do hope so, it does seem to me that a Scandy high teens to develop later on in the winter sometimes. I think what we are seeing this year is a very exaggerated setup to what we get quite often in our winters. If and when the steep temp gradient off the eastern see board become weaker, then I believe we maybe looking towards the east for our weather. Sorry mod if this is slightly off top

Quite uninteresting 850 GEFS this morning with low confidence and nothing to extreme temp wise.

Looks like the jet wants to dive south

Yes great chart there with plenty of blocking in the high artic and Greenland.

Hope this isn't the wrong forum for what is a rather ignorant question. I was just wondering that this present Bartlet type set up may do us a favour latter on in the season, if you like cold that is. My thinking is that with a strong PV locking in the very cold air, if and when the PV does split, would the artic air be a lot colder than if we had been tapping into it for a longer time.

I was just wondering if this current spell of weather can be called zonal. From my understanding I thought zonal weather meant a precession of deep lows being formed off the eastern seaboard and travelling towards us across the Atlantic. This current set up appears to be a stationary low just to the west of us, sending us frontal rain up from the sw. Many thanks Pete Iow

The AH seems to have been teasing us for some time now, the jet being slightly further north this year. Again we appear to be disappointed, just as it looks as though its game on. I'm sure the AH will come good sometime this summer and indeed GFS paint a very summery outcome albeit a week away. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130627/06/168/h500slp.png

Some cool air fringing the very north early next week, with the 528dam not quite finished with us yet.

A little late, but I found it a quite pointed that the yesterdays bbc country-file forecast didn't hint at maybe a warm up, in 10 days or so.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130310/06/33/h500slp.png Just a little concerned that the channel low is just a little to far north now for the IOW, with what looks like a maritime influence along the south coast. Hope I'm wrong.

Dont want to sound a killjoy here on the IOW snowfest, but Im a little consered if any snow will manage to settle, the ground will surely be above frezzing. Lets hope that the snow prep will be heavy enough to counteract this. I hope my pesamistic outlook is wrong, anybody care to coment on if this is a borderline deep snow event for the IOW or not.

Yes to me it looks more of a split in the members rather than a scatter. A few still showing very cold (-13)

Thanks Steve Ill try and remember the Formula. Sorry mods slightly off top.

Sorry to interrupt with a silly question, but by my reckoning, a 540 heights with a 1025 millibar roughly translates to (540-25=515) a 515 Dam ?

Absolutely gobsmacked at the amount of snow we've had on the IOW today, albit a little slushy. Had temp of 4 deg last evening, I just didn't believe the forecasts last night. Surprised at the sudden fall in temps in the early morning.

LOL, Temp dropped 2 deg since 4am, now 1deg rain turning sleety/snowy, things moving in the right direction.

I really do hope I'm wrong, but I cant see any significant snow sticking on the IOW, we've hardly had an air frost, and last night the temp stayed above freezing. Please somebody tell me I'm wrong and that we may be in for a real dumping.

Yes I think we will miss out being on the south coast, at least you can travel inland. Pete IOW

A rather Amby post from the IOW I'm afraid. Looks to me a very borderline snow event in my neck of the woods IMO, with a easterly flow on the Saturday with a slight maritime influence, however a better chance on the Sun with more of a NE, I'm probably reading the charts incorrectly. hope I'm wrong.

I like to view the gfs ens in Wetter, as it shows the average line, and by the 13th all members are below it. http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

Brilliant post, lets hope for RSR to happen in the coming few weeks. I was surprised to see that in all the classic severe winters; that this was the case.

LOL I'm certainly guilty of No 3

Thought Id share a personal view on how I view the winter period. During November expectation are running high and the model watching becomes quite intense and usually throws up some interesting outputs, along with that there is usually a few enormous ramps from the usual suspects witch adds fuel to my expectations. Also the shortening days gives the impression of a long cold winter ahead, and it doesn't matter to much if the models aren't showing cold, there is still plenty of time. The watershed for me is Xmas where I am distracted from model watching and take up looking s at the charts again in the new year. Suddenly time has seemed to run out, the models are showing Zonal all the way, the days are getting longer and a lot of winter is over posts start to appear. I keep telling myself that the winter of 1947 didn't start till mid Jan, but it to no avail, are well there is always next year, my thought turn to spring.