[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

20 minutes ago, Stormygirl said:

Hi all   Can I join team Isle of Wight.   been lurking around for a while. Love all sorts of weather especially snow. Looking marginal for us but hoping we will have some snow later.  

Welcome Stormygirl, your in the wright place.  

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

3 minutes ago, AWD said:

 

Thanks AWD,feel a lot better about things now.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Just thought Id post this snap shot from gfs, and seems to indicate a slight north of  East flow along the cannel. this may do us a IOWers  a better chance of snow.

Sorry singularity this post was meant as a reply to your post, where you alluded to a maritime influence along the south coast, but I couldn't find it when I scrolled though.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

5 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Do u think we’ll get any?? Met o showing us as heavy rain all evening  

Hope so, its all looking a bit marginal for us IOW people (IMO), but I've been wrong more times than I've been wright . Fingers crossed.

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Quote

Always going to be a bit marginal down on the south coast, but fingers crossed for Thursday..

 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

8 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

All depends on the track of the low pressure which probably won't be sorted out until tomorrow evening or maybe even Monday evening!

Yep, very critical to far north and we re on the warm side, direct hit and weve got a maritime influence. Just far enough south that we stay in the cold air is what we wont. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

11 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Sooooo are the IoW in with a chance then???

Hope so but don't think so 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/12/2018 Onwards]

Thought Id get a front row seat for the up and coming snow fest Tues. Wed, but in reality being stuck in the middle of the channel in a PM air mas all seems a bit to marginal.  Still would be nice to be pleasantly surprised.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

33 minutes ago, Nick F said:

I’m the opposite, prefer wetterzentrale as the Europe Atlantic view is a spherical  view rather than flat (Mercator) view on meteociel - which makes Greenland and Norway and anything toward north pole much larger than it actually is. 

Also find there’s too much scaling of heights in blue and purple which I find difficult to decipher the 500mb countours.

on another subject, seems to be a lot of off topic one liner chit chat in here filling up the pages, find it rather off putting posting in here, like I’ve invited myself as a total stranger into a lads conversation down the pub. 

Yes I to prefer the Wetterzentrale, although the map get distorted the further north you go, it looks more like a map to me, also on the ens graphs the average temp is shown as well as the ens mean.

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

I do think that a change to a much colder easterly set up is closer than we think, sorry this sounds a little vague, but it has been hinted at on the other model forum. 

[Cold hunt - models and chat]

22 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Yes Shaky,

Comparing 6z to yesterday. A huge shift west of the high.

To me that's looks like a very cold HP building over Scandy, if I'm reading this wright then that's 528 blue shading and a 1030mb HP. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

1 hour ago, offerman said:

Hi Snowflake,  

That's a nice chart which highlights what I often say and that is the high pressure needs to migrate further north from that position and then tilt northeast .

When it's in its current position it just produce westerly or slight more northwesterly pattern which isn't good for us. 

Atlantic basically just rides over the top of the too far south high. 

 

Thanks for the reply Offerman, I'm still quite confident that the HP will retrogress into a more favourable position, fingers crossed.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Looks quite mobile this morning with a cool zonal  flow. The snap shot indicates a transient  cold spell where the country is bathed in sub 528 for a short time. Let hope the models revert back to a more amplified setup latter on in the day.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Goodnight all, had a great day reading everyone's comments in hear tonight. I'm sure things will look a lot better in the morning, and the slider will improve the outlook.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

2 hours ago, Purga said:

London EPS spreads showing a prolonged period of below -5 850hP after next Thursday.

All to play for

Going by that graph we have just had the highest temp or the foreseeable  at 6am this morning, hope so

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

52 minutes ago, Vikos said:

This draining of low GeoP from Canada twrds EU *stunned*

 

wow very impressive. The battle of the PV is usually between the Canadian and Siberian lobes, not that I know what I'm talking about

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I know GFS tends to overdoes these Atlantic storms , but one to watch in the next few days I feel 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Need that unwanted high pressure to the west to buzz off !!

Yes ,its been a pain for a long time now. I think it was that HP that deflected the last plunge of cold air into Europe . 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

16 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

For any newer members in the later frames we can see how the gradual down welling is undermining the trop.vortex.

Those lighter coloured blues over the pole indicate the reversal is hitting the centre of PV at 500hPa.

The PV gradually being split into smaller chunks. 

What we are hoping for is a wide split to our north making room for those heights over the  the pole to nose through the gap around the Greenland area. 

Recent ens are quite promising from days 10-15.

In the meantime we look like seeing a decent holding pattern with quite a cold week to come next week. 

Many thanks Phil for the explanation, I did think that the HP forming over the pole was a reaction to the ssw. Also there's a good explanation of ssw on the BBC weather site (Tom Schafemaker).  Pete.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

Both gfs and ecm hinting at retrogression, with the ecm being slightly more amplified around the 168t mark.

[Winter weather chat, moans, banter and ramps]

Seems as though the mood has changed on the "hunt for cold" forum, maybe something to look forward in the new year.

[Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas]

What is a Bartlett 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Mixed feelings we seem to have a rather strong looking jet right over us, but also a GH trying to form.

 

[Snow & Ice coverage in the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2018/19]

Snow level dropping, with the first dusting showing up on the mountains of Longyearbyen 

www.webcamgalore.com/webcam/Norway/Longyearbyen-Spitsbergen/1457.html

[Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc]

On ‎23‎/‎07‎/‎2018 at 11:52, snowflakey said:

The 40c barrier to be broken somewhere in the se over the next fortnight ?  Highley unlikely I know, its about 104f  in old money. 

Must be a bit of a muppet replying to my own post, but at least it gets me past my 100th post. 

I see the bbc have edged the temp up a degree or to, there now predicting 37-38 for Friday, quite close but a big ask for 40c, still not a bad prediction for an idiot