MP-R

As covered in my first sentence and many times before, but thanks anyway.

You know it's bad when the CFS gets pulled out... so that's exactly what I've done lol. Not without some interest at least. A straight northerly followed by a UK high would at least be seasonal for later January. Perhaps February will be the month when some of the cold up north gets let out, at weekendly intervals. A possibly rather cold and stormy start to March too - nothing unusual there. In the short term however, all rather bland. Again I hear myself saying - at least it will be much drier than September-December...

Indeed! A good proportion of July’s rainfall came in one day here! Even August’s was essentially crammed into the middle third of the month. The real letdown was the first half / two thirds of June. Just miserable. I don’t think I’ve ever worn a puffer coat in June before...

Correct me if I’m wrong, but surely less sea ice should in the arctic should result in a weaker vortex? Ive also found it strange that the PV loves Greenland where Siberia would surely much more appropriate for it...

Cold and foggy this morning with the temp hovering between 4 and 5C but the sun has broken through since midday and the temp is responding nicely! Much prefer this weather.

This country can always be summed up as 'right synoptics, wrong time of year'. Northerly summers, westerly autumns, southerly winters, easterly springs!

Had sunshine for a few hours this afternoon and things have dried out a fair bit which is nice. Had a lovely sunset but clouding a little again now.

So nice to come back to this torrid climate after five days in the sparkling western Alps. We really do have one of the worst climates...

Wow! Impressive areaof high pressure there - and probably if the necessary strength to ward off the Atlantic. Certainly cold or very cold at the surface even if uppers are still not that cold. Aside from monstrous highs, some of the charts recently are a bit like January 2017. A below average month but mainly dry, cold and frosty, also quite sunny with minimal action off the Atlantic and a brief snowy northwesterly midmonth. Despite the otherwise unexciting outlook, I personally welcome the onset of much drier conditions!

So many routes lead to cold in January and the one that delivers mild looks like winning - typical. Not good for alpine snow at all but at least it’ll probably be sunny for you oh beautiful surroundings. Spare a thought for us in the UK stuck under cloud...

At least we can look forward to the Atlantic switching off in March. Oh wait... Sorry... couldn't find anything of interest in the short term!

So none.

Yep this winter is the winter of altitude so far. It was a toss up for me between going to NE Europe or the Alps for Christmas. I’m glad I chose the Alps even though it’s been a bit marginal in Chamonix too.

Sure. Despite the lengthy unsettled phase we are in, its notable how few actual storms we’ve had. I think I’ve registered a gale once in November and once in December! Now I’m not bothered. Could do with shutting off the Atlantic for two months, come back in March for a few weeks like last year then spring!

If we were coming out of a long settled spell, then yes, but seeing as we've had the above for best part of 3 months, even that on repeat gets exceedingly boring.

A common theme away from the winter nirvana 18Zs is high pressure to back southwest into the Atlantic and the PV ramping up at least for the first week of January - that spells strong northwesterlies, undoubtedly with a few shortwaves in the flow, energised by the tropical waters of the north Atlantic. Could all change to something more mundane (wouldn't be surprised) but I'd take bright showery northwesterlies with a cold wind over the dross we've had for so much of this month!

Assuming it's even arrived by then lol.

Even that isn't a given. Just look at the last few years, especially last year. March was more active in the Atlantic than the entire winter. Into the new year, if wintry synoptics are so hard to come by, I'll be looking for charts like these. A UK based high would not be mild for long, even if a Tm flow has preceded its development. Anything to dry the country out. A very similar thing happened in January last year. Even better if it would lead on to something along the lines of the latter frame... (all for fun of course given these are from the Conjecture Forecasting System model).

Snow only lay from showers that came overnight down here. If it weren't for the easterly in the second half of Feb 2006, I'd say this was the weakest easterly of the decade. At least some snow did actually settle from the 2005 one.

Unbelievably it’s been sunny all morning!

Some cracking wintry runs in CFS FI... In all seriousness though, I think all still to play for after Christmas. Consistent signs of a change, just uncertainty around what that change may be. As I've said in other threads, it would just be nice to at least see a stop to this relentless rain... It seems like it's been November since September 22nd!

I spy a potential frontal snow in the furthest reaches of 18Z GFS FI. Considerable cold building over the continent and a flabby Atlantic.

Indeed, my comment was slightly tongue in cheek. It's just amazing to see a strong jet stream hurtling across Iberia and we and most of Europe still get bathed in warm air lol. Some interesting choices for late month and into January though!

Well as we've seen this month, a southerly tracking jet this winter is going to bring us mild, so perhaps a northerly tracking jet will allow for cold lol. This winter is certainly going against the norm so wouldn't surprise me.

Certainly a more impressive spell than the late December 2001 one but a much less pleasant month leading up to it. It's quite interesting running the archives through the lead up to it, as the Atlantic slides way south under the developing high pressure to the north. What a beautiful pair of charts from that week! From then on, it was a decent winter for cold, especially in January and the second half of Feb / early March.