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The Eagle

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Everything posted by The Eagle

  1. I think Atlantic coastal counties may get red warnings, yellow for everywhere else. Some eastern counties maybe no warning at all.
  2. Yes Steve. Irish Met and UK Met monitoring the situation with the NHC daily now. Clearly the "way out west" solution is not thought to fly with them at the moment. This could yet be an event. Nothing certain yet.
  3. NAVGEM/GEM also have impact potential for Ireland at least, if not the UK. I dunno I think this will be interesting yet.
  4. Daily conference calls between Irish Met, UK Met and NHC underway regarding Lorenzo. A lot of uncertainty still over the track unlikely to be resolved today. Huge split in potential outcomes.
  5. Probabilities creeping up. Lorenzo has also increase to Cat 5 status.
  6. Lorenzo is now a major Cat 5 hurricane with wind speeds above 155 mph.
  7. Lorenzo could conceivably hit Cat 5 status within the next 12 hours. This mornings model runs will be important for Ireland and the UK later on. There is no clarity yet really on the track of the system in to the mid latitude and how it taps the jet stream.
  8. Lorenzo latest track. Slightly west of earlier but will fluctuate over coming days.
  9. Always worth remembering the track can change at short notice. Some runs have this potentially impacting southern parts of UK or even through Biscay and in to France.
  10. Transitioning Tropical Storm, same as Hurricane Ophelia for example. They won't provide updates when fully transitioned. NHC was providing regular updates right up to landfall.
  11. Wouldn't be surprised if Met Eireann and the Met Office were in touch with NHC on potential impacts on Ire/UK respectively soon if not already. Still a way to go though. GFS 6z consistent enough with the 00z regarding potential track.
  12. Latest (10 am advisory) from NHC. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/280844.shtml?
  13. Latest (10 am advisory) from NHC. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/280844.shtml?
  14. Long way to go but the similarities with Ophelia are striking (even though that path was east of the Azores).
  15. Yup, still could go many ways. Some fairly notable evolutions out there though I still favor the track to the west of Ireland keeping it off shore I think. Should be interesting to track this.
  16. Ophelia-esque evolution on the 12z ECM. This could be one to watch.
  17. Might have minor impacts in western Ireland. Doubt it will reach the UK in any noticable form. It's nothing on the models at that stage.
  18. Orange weather warning for thunderstorms just issued for eastern Ireland. Status Orange - Thunder warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan and Waterford Thunderstorms will affect the eastern half of the country this morning with heavy downpours, the risk of hail and gusty winds. Temporary surface flooding is possible for a time, combined with the risk of hail will lead to hazardous driving conditions in some areas. Valid: Saturday 29 June 2019 05:00 to Saturday 29 June 2019 12:00 https://www.met.ie/warnings
  19. On track for the southeast and Dublin probably. https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/visual
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