The Eagle

Snowline at around 900 - 1,000 meters ASL in southwest corner of Ireland

Not the best at 168 hrs on that evidence for UKMO.

When do the UKMO charts update there?

Northerly express probably setting up post 240 hrs but that's out in la la land. A lot of water to go under bridge.

Everyone remain calm!

I think Atlantic coastal counties may get red warnings, yellow for everywhere else. Some eastern counties maybe no warning at all.

Yes Steve. Irish Met and UK Met monitoring the situation with the NHC daily now. Clearly the "way out west" solution is not thought to fly with them at the moment. This could yet be an event. Nothing certain yet.

NAVGEM/GEM also have impact potential for Ireland at least, if not the UK. I dunno I think this will be interesting yet.

Take your pick...

Northerly incursion that early are a waste anyway

Daily conference calls between Irish Met, UK Met and NHC underway regarding Lorenzo. A lot of uncertainty still over the track unlikely to be resolved today. Huge split in potential outcomes.

Probabilities creeping up. Lorenzo has also increase to Cat 5 status.

Lorenzo is now a major Cat 5 hurricane with wind speeds above 155 mph.

Lorenzo could conceivably hit Cat 5 status within the next 12 hours. This mornings model runs will be important for Ireland and the UK later on. There is no clarity yet really on the track of the system in to the mid latitude and how it taps the jet stream.

Lorenzo latest track. Slightly west of earlier but will fluctuate over coming days.