The Eagle

The best way I can describe the mid term 6 - 12 days out look is that it's becoming ever more normal really. Wind potential aside neither particularly cold nor mild. Just run of the mill deep depressions.

ECM looks good at 120 just about. It's VERY close though at 96 hrs. A nudge here or there and it's the UKMO/ICON.

The GFS control run is, if anything, even more awesome than the op.

00z GFS is great but overwhelmed really by poor ICON, UKMO, GFS(P) All down to the ECM. Depending on which way that goes it will be great here later or absolutely appalling.

Quite a snow maker on the GFS op though...

GFS looks like it will rescue something. Impressive enough in to GL.

GFS may just about rescue it but the UKMO is not good. We don't want that shortwave pumped up like that, ditto the phasing.

If the GFS or UKMO are anything like that it's the beginning of the end really for prospects in the latter half of January in my opinion, but we'll see.

ICON first out. Not good. Not good at all.

Looks like a step toward the ECM here. More progressive off Newfoundland @ 144hrs, heights not as evident over GL

This really is a very disappointing temperature profile return on a regime like this for the first half of January

At that point it would be bringing the beast. Something much more potent if we get there.

On the contrary it's a fanastic run for the simple fact it isn't far away at all. It's also on it's own with that one aspect. Wouldn't be surprised if it's a synoptic outlier there.

The problem is day 7. Note the double vortex just off the east coast of GL. We only want one, the southern one...that's the one we need to drop down. Flimsy extensions like this just disrupt the whole play... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2020123112/ECM1-168.GIF?31-0

ECM made a boo boo at 168 hrs, flips by 216