Big Bear

Unlike other hostile views of Paul's post, i think this topic is something a lot of us are interested in, seeing whether the current trend of cooler weather continues into Autumn or whether the climate in general carries on above average as expected. I'm certainly not expecting a mass temperature plunge giving another winter 1962/63 but whats happening now is certainly worth noting and deserves a thread of it's own. Well done Paul for starting it.

Here are my monthly CET predictions for the rest of the year: (+ or - the average) July: +0.2 Aug: +.06 Sep: +1.2 Oct: +0.9 Nov: -0.7 Dec: -1.8

Here are my monthly CET predictions for the rest of the year: July: +0.2 Aug: +.06 Sep: +1.2 Oct: +0.9 Nov: -0.7 Dec: -1.8 Based on psychoneurotelepathical analysis.

Hello Sue and thanks. I don't think we're in for a very warm August but it would be nice to get some more sun - that's for sure! Since this summer has almost been written off I am prematurely looking forward to winter 07/08, especially with the encouraging early NAO signal.

In the infinity of space, it would be very naive to assume we are the only form of life that exists, has ever existed, or may exist in the future. Several scientists from NASA and Stanford University announced their findings of ancient, fossilized, microscopic life from a Martian meteorite, known as ALH84001. The meteorite was catapulted away from Mars fifteen million years ago when a huge comet or asteroid impacted the surface. The meteorite travelled through space for millions of years and then encountered the Earth. It entered Earth's atmosphere about thirteen thousand years ago and landed at Antarctica. The meteorite lay there until 1984, when a team from the NASA Johnson Space Center found it while exploring the Allan Hills ice field, and brought it back to Houston. It was initially classified as a lunar meteorite, but in 1993 was correctly identified as from Mars. It is one of only twelve "SNC" meteorites, which match the unique chemical signature of Mars. So when you consider the existence of us, and evidence of other life BOTH sharing a relatively minature pocket of space, to write off the idea of extraterrestrial life would be IMO rather narrow minded. The fact we have not established commuication from outer space is down to the sheer lack of speed & distance of our radio signals, which SETI transmit 24 hours a day 7 days a week, hoping for a reply, when in reality we have covered an area the size of a pea in the Atlantic ocean. Still, even today The first signal pulse transmitted in the 70's has only reached a relatively short distance. For a signal to reach ET life and be replied to, just doubles the waiting time. Whether space in in fact infinate or not, is the ultimate question which will probably never be answered.

Can someone more experienced (Caranthian?) please give a brief analysis on the arctic ice behaviour in 2005 on the other side of the globe to us. I would like to see if there is a correlation between higher ice levels in the East Russia/ West Canada regionand the extreme cold & record snowfall that struck Japan in winter 05/06 links attached: http://www.snowjapan.com/e/gallery/index-snowy-japan.html http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4591950.stm

In support of this theory I would like to remind people that winter 05/06 (or 06/07 - can't remember which) Japan and parts of the far east at similar latitude had the coldest & certainly the snowiest winter for nearly a century. Arctic ice was more prominent on the opposite side of the globe to us that year, while we bathed in mild rubbish. My point is, who's to say the sypnosis cannot be reversed this year providing the ice build/ pattern continues as it is at present, plunging NW Europe into a deep freeze with record snowfall. All in the name of speculation of course. Here we are - it was winter 05/06. A couple of links related to the heavy falls of that winter in Japan: http://www.snowjapan.com/e/gallery/index-snowy-japan.html http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/4591950.stm

Yes that could hold some logic since high pressure blocks are influenced by snow covered areas and a nice anti cyclone to our north could be aided by this with the polar high shifting towards Europe. Also there is evidence that extensive snow reflects solar radiation, further increasing the likelyhood of below average surface temps, providing the cold is there in the first place!

The signs look good for a slightly below average winter 07/08 in my opinion. I know we've heard it all before but the SSTs and the NAO throughout April, beginnging & end of May, June AND July has been moderately to strongly negative. Clocking up below average temps is the next milestone. A cool July will get people talking but we'll need at least a couple more below av. months before December before I start getting really interested.

The 06z London Ensemble has some support for an Easterly commencing around 19th!! Not a lot of support at the moment, however a couple more runs jumped onboard since todays 00z. What does everyone think about this and can anyone post a link where I can view other european ensembles?

Hi Paul sorry having some problems with the site. Yes I believe Cissbury ring is about 200m ASL, but will the towns south of the downs just see rain? I suppose it depends on the timing of the front?

Hi SB I am talking about the downs in a line from Arundel through east to Worthing & Brighton What are your thoughts??

Sorry Paul, do you mean height as in 850 temps, or altitude?

Can anyone tell me how they think the south downs will do? i.e. Cissbury & Chanctonbury Ring? I live only a couple of miles from the coast so will I even see wet snow/ sleet/ or nothing but rain? I am doubtful of seeing anything on the ground other than puddles... hopefully someone can better this?? HELP?!

Can anyone tell me how they think the south downs will do? i.e. Cissbury & Chanctonbury Ring? I live only a couple of miles from the coast so will I even see wet snow/ sleet/ or nothing but rain? I am doubtful of seeing anything on the ground other than puddles... hopefully someone can better this?? HELP?!

Can anyone tell me how they think the south downs will do? i.e. Cissbury & Chanctonbury Ring? I live only a couple of miles from the coast so will I even see wet snow/ sleet/ or nothing but rain? I am doubtful of seeing anything on the ground other than puddles... hopefully someone can better this?? HELP?!

Can anyone tell me how they think the south downs will do? i.e. Cissbury & Chanctonbury Ring? I live only a couple of miles from the coast so will I even see wet snow/ sleet/ or nothing but rain? I am doubtful of seeing anything on the ground other than puddles... hopefully someone can better this?? HELP?!

Does anyone think it is possible, or can anyone actually help produce a hindcast model, where data from previous years, leading up to classic cold spells can be fed into current systems to produce a 'mock' ensembles. It would be facinating to see how the ensembles would behave with forecasted GFS data (for example) for the early part of Jan 87, 1963 or 1947. The aim would be to test how accurate the current models are by testing old data as new input, then analysing how far out a classic cold spell is potentially spotted. Thoughts & discussion please.

I think the fact you think the ensembles can't be used for forecasting is proposterous. They work ever so well in conjunction with the charts up to +3 days out.

Dammit!! I just knew they'd back away from a below average winter. Another mild one on the way then I suppose...

The examples of this method described do not appear to be successful attempts at teleportation. Replicating something and putting a copy somewhere else is something very different. I wouldn't like to be cloned & killed in the same day in the name of science. I firmly believe teleportation will never be possible.

My great grandfather used to drink a 'shot' of olive oil everyday from mid-adulthood and he lived well into his 90's. He was very fit, shame a hip replacement killed him really.

Hi all This was released yesterday, Jo B4stardi's winter forecast for 06/07. He hints on the weak El nino giving way to northerly incursions, aided by a Greenland block of sorts in the mid-latter stages of winter. Already much talked about over on Two: http://ukie.accuweather.com/adcbin/ukie/ukie_joe_b.asp

Paul, I'm sorry you take offense to people's ineterest in cold weather, cold ramping and talk of easterlies, but at the end of the day theres nothing wrong with it and I'm just as entitled to do so as I am regarding the beloved jet stream/ atlantic westerly weather types. Steve's analysis is one concentrating on cold potential (it is a WINTER analysis afterall) so of course it is going to contain pointers to cold, and subsequently attract interest from the large majority of members during the winter season. In reality, Mr Realist, most of the winter posters actually do long for an easterly like Jan 87 or Feb 91. I'm sure I'm not alone in thinking that. Maybe we can do a poll on your bets section? Yes, the charts are always interesting... just a bit more so when they show ice days and snow set ups at T+90 hrs... its all part of the fun & excitement. I'm beginning to think you relish in trying to stamp the hopes of the snow lovers on here? ..perhaps it gives you a sense of GW minded authority it just seems a little over eager. By the way, is GWUK your own acronym or a commonly used & recognised one?

I wonder if BFTP can find out what year that was. From looking at the figures standing in the foreground I'd say around 1900-1910 or perhaps earlier