PersianPaladin

Or for those who ever took it seriously....

The orientation of the upper flow has clearly not developed as expected by the models earlier on, and of particular note is the development of short-wave features just to the exit of the jet-streak north of the UK. These spoiler shortwaves can make a big difference, and very much are an inevitable part of the jet-evolution - thus preventing the development of heights to the west of Scandinavia. Still, their emergence can be entirely unexpected thus demonstrating the chaotic and contingent complexity separating conditions at 300hpa down to 500hpa and below. We've seen these sort of shortwaves ruin set-ups in winter, albeit they usually prop-up in different locations such as south of Sweden; thus cutting off the cold air advection to the UK. I remember one such feature, was a particular heart-breaker for us all.

UKMO tends to perform poorly at its maximum-range. Albeit we are still on a knife-edge situation regardless.

12z trundling out now, and its looking like a hot Wednesday and Thursday for much of England and Wales. Similar so far to 06z, albeit the heat-low south of Britain seems to be pegged back this time. EDIT - Overall, a better run for WAA especially for central and southern England.

Well, the usual UK form-horse has been "two hot days and a thunderstorm". So that's probably how it will pan out.

A direct easterly is what some of the charts were previously showing for the culmination of this week. In other words, the much-hyped "heat-wave" by Piers Corbyn and co. going "t*ts up!" in a novel way. Mind you, that chart is beautiful. Just wrong time of the year.

Are the dynamic relationships really that simple? I'm not sure.

That's very interesting. Is there any scientific literature or meteorological sources that might expand on this?

Bog standard fare really for the north-east. But each day has its own interesting characteristics regardless of insufficient heat or sun, and that's why (bottomline) we're weather enthusiasts.

He's a known ramper.

Contradicts the latest GFS anyway. Are they going by the latest FAX charts or now-casting?

Jay Wynne's latest BBC weather forecast mentioned absolutely nothing about any thunder storms across England tommorow. In direct contradiction with the local forecast a few hours earlier. WTF?

I got up at 6am and suddenly saw two bright flashes from outside, exactly like lightning. Strangely, there were no storm clouds in the sky at the time (broken cloud was present) and there was nothing on the radar indicating showers nearby. What on earth could it be I wonder?

It's very interesting stuff. Until now, researchers basically have not been able to explain why clouds actually produce lightning because the strength of the electrical fields are an order of magnitude too weak. Processes such as run-away breakdown of cosmic rays as well as charged solar particles have been hypothesized but the whole process is still yet to be understood. The idea that clouds are given a significant amount of charge from space is pretty cool, I think - and perhaps we should thank the Russians for getting this area of research started.

Interesting research. An excerpt from the article:- http://www.iop.org/news/14/nov/page_64495.html

Despite the MJO’s importance, global models often struggle to simulate the oscillation accurately. Researchers showed that MJO simulations are most sensitive to the existence of lower level heating in the atmosphere. http://science.energy.gov/ber/highlights/2015/ber-2015-03-g/

Judging by early reports of the damage, I'm wondering if it was at least a T6. More to come I suspect... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33456741

Warning....strong language...

My home county of Durham made the national news, with very large hailstones damaging cars and homes. Shame I'm living abroad at present:- http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33362433 This was from a lightning strike in Newcastle:- http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-33359066

Cold front is producing some pretty heavy showers in a line up from around Bristol to south-west Scotland. Might be some isolated thundery downpours in the north pennine region.

If this is to do with old mining ventures, then how many more of these could plausibly appear in the next few years? https://sg.news.yahoo.com/massive-sinkhole-appears-county-durham-england-133045698.html

Some interesting shower cells developing just off the coast of NE England earlier this morning. Most likely developing in conditions where the SST's are warmer than the air temperatures and thus generating initial lift (albeit most likely providing minimal contribution at this time of year), with sufficiently light winds not far off the coast and a wind-convergence zone powering the showers for a time, and then fading away. EDIT - Some isolated heavy showers could develop in the NE this early afternoon albeit the window for this will be brief. No showers have been forecast by the METO.

Some very heavy showers here in the Tyne&Wear region, with some flashes of lightning thrown in for good measure. EDIT - Lagging upper trough to the east and lower-level wind convergence is keeping these showers going with further low-topped CB's going up. Very spring-like convective activity really.

Here's the lake district forecast by the Met Office for today:- Now, go and have a look at the rainfall radar from 10am onwards for the park. Talk about epic fail......

Was out on the Lake District fells today. Got caught in a heavy blustery shower, albeit only heard one loud rumble of thunder. Regardless, got drenched.