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PersianPaladin

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    4 miles north of Durham City
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  1. After a long and highly damaging drought, a series of violent flashfloods has wreaked havoc across 23 provinces of Iran:- --Warning-- The video may be distressing for some.
  2. T96 to T120 evolution of the Greenland-originated trough will be crucial. There is considerable room for complications here and the previous ECM run showed how things can get messy in such a complex set-up. T144 UKMO is promising, but we must remember that at that range the UKMO starts to perform poorly in comparison with the ECM. More runs needed, but we are getting very close now! There is some hope...but I would warn people from ramping just yet.
  3. Yes, the evolution is different but essentially the same dynamics and rules apply in terms of cold-advection. I'm currently more interested in that Greenland low and to what extent it actually produces snow for the country. It might be more surprising than forecast.
  4. Yes, the trends continue in much the same way but as I said yesterday - the set-up is precarious and highly changeable within a short time-frame. I don't know about how the different models resolve the resolution of the upper-troughing west of Greenland or over N.Canada, but I'm suspect of this pattern. I think given the record in these situations, the extent of that cold air will end up producing sufficient cyclogenesis in the N.Atlantic to erode heights over Scandi, where quite frankly we need them if we are to have any snow except the SOUTH of the country. Too many a time have we ended up with a weak block collapsing over the UK with shortwaves over the top, flurries for the far SE and the main LOW heading off south towards Italy and Greece. I predict the same to happen in this scenario.
  5. Of course, most of those experienced on here will be highly wary of a significant cold incursion from the NE given the overall pattern indicated by the charts. Granted, everything is interconnected including all the teleconnections, stratospheric trends, tropical convection anamolies and so forth. What the experts will (among other factors) be looking for is how the polar vortex behaves, bifurcates, decays, etc in the next T144 hours. The pattern upstream is not particularly promising west of Greenland and how much warm-air is able to advect northward in order to give time for things to fall into place east of the Atlantic High is speculative. We will have to wait and see how this very cold trough from Greenland affects us from T96 onwards and its pretty much F.I. from that point. All too often we have seen steep upper temperature gradients reappear just west and SW of Greenland to weaken and bleed energy into the northern arm enough to flatten and reduce the amplification. The result is for our dear European trough to sink southwards towards Greece....
  6. We bloody well need some rain. I'm getting concerned about the amount of brown grass around even up here in the north. Every smidgen of Atlantic shortwaves cropping up on any ensemble should get a cheer from most, frankly.
  7. Thunder snow several times throughout the night in North Durham. No surprise given the extreme synoptics.
  8. Thunder snow all through the small hours of the night in North Durham. Insane!

  9. It's pretty clear that the planet is running a fever. The door to the Arctic freezer has been left open and it's hemorrhaging out into the northern hemisphere, producing additional winter temperature extremes elsewhere. For example I am living in Istanbul these days and ive never known a winter with such sustained mild weather. The arctic has gone crazy, there is vicious circle of feedback of evaporation, moisture build up and further ice melt from the greenhouse effect of the latent heat. These sort of extremes look set to continue and I think even the peak oil crisis won't even be enough to force a change.
  10. Corbyn supporters are violently blaming Sturgeon and her Scottish Independence brigade, for the ability of the Tories to get the help of the DUP.
  11. With the country divided and in crisis, I think it's time for prince William to jump a couple of generations and become Lord protector of the realm.
  12. A divided country, a hung Parliament and a nation under the grip of terrorism.
  13. There is such a thing as "heavy drizzle", you know.... Though it isn't oft-mentioned.
  14. Just managed to prevent my house from flooding. Very heavy rain coming down, opened the front door and saw the drains in front of my drive were overflowing. Used a plank of wood to try to wash it away before it entered the front door of the house. Thankfully the rain eased, but I am angry that whoever built our drive-drainage system appears to have done a shoddy job. The neighbors' drainage is certainly not overflowed.
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