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PersianPaladin

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PersianPaladin last won the day on March 28 2012

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  1. T96 to T120 evolution of the Greenland-originated trough will be crucial. There is considerable room for complications here and the previous ECM run showed how things can get messy in such a complex set-up. T144 UKMO is promising, but we must remember that at that range the UKMO starts to perform poorly in comparison with the ECM. More runs needed, but we are getting very close now! There is some hope...but I would warn people from ramping just yet.
  2. Yes, the evolution is different but essentially the same dynamics and rules apply in terms of cold-advection. I'm currently more interested in that Greenland low and to what extent it actually produces snow for the country. It might be more surprising than forecast.
  3. Yes, the trends continue in much the same way but as I said yesterday - the set-up is precarious and highly changeable within a short time-frame. I don't know about how the different models resolve the resolution of the upper-troughing west of Greenland or over N.Canada, but I'm suspect of this pattern. I think given the record in these situations, the extent of that cold air will end up producing sufficient cyclogenesis in the N.Atlantic to erode heights over Scandi, where quite frankly we need them if we are to have any snow except the SOUTH of the country. Too many a time have we ended up with a weak block collapsing over the UK with shortwaves over the top, flurries for the far SE and the main LOW heading off south towards Italy and Greece. I predict the same to happen in this scenario.
  4. Of course, most of those experienced on here will be highly wary of a significant cold incursion from the NE given the overall pattern indicated by the charts. Granted, everything is interconnected including all the teleconnections, stratospheric trends, tropical convection anamolies and so forth. What the experts will (among other factors) be looking for is how the polar vortex behaves, bifurcates, decays, etc in the next T144 hours. The pattern upstream is not particularly promising west of Greenland and how much warm-air is able to advect northward in order to give time for things to fall into place east of the Atlantic High is speculative. We will have to wait and see how this very cold trough from Greenland affects us from T96 onwards and its pretty much F.I. from that point. All too often we have seen steep upper temperature gradients reappear just west and SW of Greenland to weaken and bleed energy into the northern arm enough to flatten and reduce the amplification. The result is for our dear European trough to sink southwards towards Greece....
  5. We bloody well need some rain. I'm getting concerned about the amount of brown grass around even up here in the north. Every smidgen of Atlantic shortwaves cropping up on any ensemble should get a cheer from most, frankly.
  6. Thunder snow several times throughout the night in North Durham. No surprise given the extreme synoptics.
  7. Thunder snow all through the small hours of the night in North Durham. Insane!

  8. It's pretty clear that the planet is running a fever. The door to the Arctic freezer has been left open and it's hemorrhaging out into the northern hemisphere, producing additional winter temperature extremes elsewhere. For example I am living in Istanbul these days and ive never known a winter with such sustained mild weather. The arctic has gone crazy, there is vicious circle of feedback of evaporation, moisture build up and further ice melt from the greenhouse effect of the latent heat. These sort of extremes look set to continue and I think even the peak oil crisis won't even be enough to force a change.
  9. There is such a thing as "heavy drizzle", you know.... Though it isn't oft-mentioned.
  10. Just managed to prevent my house from flooding. Very heavy rain coming down, opened the front door and saw the drains in front of my drive were overflowing. Used a plank of wood to try to wash it away before it entered the front door of the house. Thankfully the rain eased, but I am angry that whoever built our drive-drainage system appears to have done a shoddy job. The neighbors' drainage is certainly not overflowed.
  11. It's not particularly frequent here in Durham these days either. My favourite synoptic though is in spring and summer, and also in early autumn when the North Sea blows in low cloud and varying intensities of drizzle throughout a day. But this requires particular synoptics that aren't as frequent as I'd like them to be. Interestingly, I recall the days of sea fret and "haar" being fewer these days compared to a few years ago, when haar would penetrate 15 miles inland and bring an atmospheric change from hot weather to misty cool weather in the afternoon. Not seen that for a long time, and that may perhaps be as a result of large-scale increases in sea temperatures. To have a hot day interrupted by drizzle would be an atmospheric dream for me considering that I'm not right on the coast.
  12. We've just had a heat wave, followed by storms. Now the air is much much cooler, and there is a blanket of thick stratus hanging over the hills with drizzle falling intermittently. And I love it. The fine mist falling brings out the subtle and delicate smells of the new plant growth, and walking in the nearby woods you can see how thoroughly it covers every leaf, blade of grass and flower with fine droplets as well as fine rivulets running along some sections of the wood. The drizzle is not constant, and I love how its intensities vary as it comes and goes, with curtains of droplets that fall and often with tiny droplets dancing through the air as though they were in brownian-motion. I like the ambience it creates, the light winds and the stillness associated with it. It has a comfy quality, whether you choose to walk in it or observe it from outside whilst sitting by a fire reading. I've never seen the fields look so green when it comes and is prolonged. Come, join my Drizzle Cult. I don't want to be the only member....
  13. "Its 20c in western scotland". Won't BBC forecasters explain the Fohn Effect? It's not just shelter from that wind which is producing such temps there for a couple or so days running.

    1. mike57

      mike57

      Trouble is the BBC like to dumb everything down, and explaining the Fohn effect would require that the presenter understands the physics. To be honest I find the TV forecasts irritating most of the time. People assume what is in the forecast will happen, but there is obviously a probability attached to all forecasts, and they rarely mention that either.

      Look at the way they show the weather maps with Scotland reduced to about half the size it should be, with London and SE shown 'full size'

  14. Of course, there are about 10 additional teleconnection patterns officially recognised by NOAA; albeit those are considered subsets of wider teleconnections within both the Atlantic and Pacific, but also including the Asian landmass, the Arctic and so on.
  15. Personally I wouldn't mind that sort of weather. Would be a relief to the amount of colds and illnesses going around up here at least. Still, its a pretty plausible option given the persistent modelling of the PV lobe in Greenland; which will - if not somehow warmed-out by a change in general pattern - build heights in the Atlantic in an orientation that will end up bringing mild air over us.
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