osmposm

Not sure about "MOST", it's pretty evenly balanced...56, 85, 86, 87 & 91 didn't, certainly, but 1962-3, 1978-9 and 1981-2 (and more recent ones) were all under way by the year's end at the latest. Even the famously 'late' 1946-7 had been preceded in mid-Dec by some less extreme cold with lying snow even in central London. But I take your point that at this stage anything is still possible - though the 'unheralded' later cold events tend to be shorter-lived, on the whole.

Um, sorry - what proves that the MetO 'put very little energy into serious seasonal forecasting at present'? The fact that you disagree with it?

Um, no. Terminal Moraine covers it well. I was thinking of visiting NZ...a little less keen now. These things are very personal, though - for me Rob McElwee was THE man on many levels - intelligent,informative, literate, witty, and perfectly timed and presented (Corbett always seemed rushed) - but others (including, obviously, his bosses) disliked him.

For me, Thursday 7th February 1991. The maximum that day here was -4.4C after a min of -8.0C (under fully overcast skies), with virtually continuous snow. The 6th had seen a max at freezing point, and the snow began falling in the evening. It continued through the night, the following day (7th), and much of the following night, often heavily. By 7.30 pm on the 7th there was 6" fluffy and level (there was little wind); by 1.30 am on the 8th it was 10". Snow continued intermittently thereafter, and the temp didn't rise above freezing - and then barely - until the afternoon of the 10th (after an overnight min of -8.6C). And that, for inner London, less than 50 ft ASL, ain't 'alf bad!

This website http://www.itameripo..._GB/jaatilanne/ gives you all the information on current, previous year, and average Baltic ice conditions; but the season has not yet started, so the simple maps are still showing the situation from last May.However, if you follow the link below to the 'Actual coloured ice chart' http://www.itameripo...ef/icemap_c.pdf , the map is fairly current, and shows that on 22nd Nov the first ice of the season was JUST beginning to form in some of the inlets on the far northern edge of The Gulf of Bothnia.

Had a promising beginning here in Putney just before 1 pm: darker and darker from the SSW, frequent rumbles of thunder getting steadily louder and closer, a few spots of rain, then falling heavier and heavier, on the verge of a real deluge...but then petered out again after not many mins - I think most of it slid past a bit east of me on its way towards East Anglia. The few minutes of heavy rain have left a scatter of classic pale brown (?)Sahara dust on the cars. But otherwise a disappointment.

The sad thing is that this line of storms and heavy rain has been showing on the radar since about mid-day, but the Metoffice site is STILL showing no warnings for London - instead the warnings are for later in the day and further north and west. Is there no-one on duty there on a Sunday to do a flash warning?

Yes, I very much agree, Polarlow2. I now spend far, far too much time checking the various models many times a day, reading the swing of opinion on what they may mean, and am often (as now) none the wiser as to what they will mean. In former times the forecasters wouldn't even have mentioned it until there was a high probability. The models paint these cascades of wonderful pictures for us to dream over, and however much we know intellectually that they are only possibilities, it is hard to avoid getting excited when a particularly juicy one crops up, even two weeks ahead. The truth is that in the UK the winter 'will it/won't it' easterly scenario was always much commoner than we imagine - in fact I suspect it was the norm. The continent, historically, had a flood of very cold air over it at some point in most winters (as continents do), and these probably looked like they might advect westwards and include us on frequent occasions. The trouble is that this long "reverse" flow is quite hard to achieve, and usually it doesn't happen. Sometimes, as in February 1991, it happens more straighforwardly - the arrival of very cold air then was correctly forecast quite some time ahead. But usually it's a more tenuous and chaotic progression, and sometimes it seems to come from practically nowhere. It is a sobering thought that, despite the advances in our technology and understanding, at least in potential easterly situations we seem little closer to knowing what will happen in three or four days' time than we were two decades ago. And I have a feeling that we'll be little further on in another two decades! Yes, I used to be riveted by Ceefax (though I doubt they changed it four times a day) - in fact I think I took some photos of the screen just before the Feb '91 bitter cold and snow, which I might dig out and scan to post here - but the real thrill was waiting for the BBC TV late night 'Weatherview' forecast each day....and of course, as you say, most exciting of all, the Sunday Countryfile forecast "for the week ahead". Sadly I don't bother with either of them any more (though Rob McElwee's departure didn't help). Have we lost something because of this? Yes, very possibly - at the very least many hours of my life!

Not really.....if you or your company can afford a helicopter flight in the first place, then it's likely you're the sort of person who's worth at least £5,000 a day at work in the place you're supposed to be instead of still on holiday - £5K a day is less than £1.5m a year (assuming a 6-day week & 3w hols a year), and plenty of top managers are paid more than that even before their profit-linked bonuses. It's not my world, thank God, nobody would miss me - I can't even afford the original holiday, let alone the cost of hurtling back from it!

Sensible (and refreshingly literate) words, O Wise One of Enfield. And looking back to what you wrote on 29th Dec, I might say the same: " I personally think the various models are only going to start showing notable changes in runs which take place in the 2nd week of January. Why? Simple: the upstream pattern - which is theorised - will then be within a more mathematically sound range, and the calculations which are run on that dataset will have a sounder footing. Personally, I tend to avoid GFS as its verification evidence proves it is not a reliable model." I may choose to ignore that last sentence, though, even at the price of Getting Fairly Stressed.....it's far, far too much fun. PS I envy your extra 33 m of height....but I'm further east!

...not to mention (daily CET mean figures): Feb 69 - 13 days < 1C, incl 7 straight days ≤ 0C (lowest -3.5C) Feb 70 - 8 days < 1C, incl 6 straight days ≤ 0C (lowest -2.3C) Feb 78 - 12 days < 1C, incl 5 straight days ≤ 0C (lowest -3.3C) Feb 79 - 12 days < 1C, incl 5 straight days ≤ 0C (lowest -3.4C) Feb 85 - 12 days < 1C, incl 11 straight days ≤ 0C (lowest -4.1C) And now the 5th coldest Feb recorded since 1659 (@ -1.1C significantly colder overall than 1963): Feb 86 - 24 days < 1C, incl 22 straight days ≤ 0C (well, almost..lowest day -4.6C) Feb 91 - 14 days < 1C, incl 12 straight days ≤ 0C (lowest -4.7C) The Februaries of 1954, 55, 56 all had some bitter weather, too. How, exactly, do you define "much cold", I wonder?! :winky:

Um....February 1991?

The first thing that might help, syed, is if you could pleeeeeaaase try and break up your sentences with some punctuation? Maybe I'm getting old, but while I can just about cope with your spelling, the long strings of unpunctuated words take me an annoying amount of time to decipher. As to your evidence/"evidents", if you are referring to the "climategate" leaked emails from the University of E Anglia Climate Research Unit - see here http://en.wikipedia....ail_controversy - then don't bother. Most of us here know all about them, have read many of them, and many - perhaps most - of us (including me) do not believe they show evidence of anything except - at worst - impatience, poor judgement and some arrogance. The one thing they certainly do not show is evidence of government interference with the process of weather forecasting, as you originally claimed. If you have other evidence, then please let us see it.

If you thought through what you have written for ten intelligent and logical seconds, you would realise that it is nonsense. If the government wanted people to believe in global warming, the last thing they would do is force the Met Office to issue artificially warm forecasts - for the obvious reason that those who doubt the existence of GW would believe in it even LESS if they kept reading warm forecasts, but kept experiencing cold weather. Unless, of course, you believe that the government has not just the power to change forecasts, but the power to change the weather in line with them..... If the Government did want their drum-banging "lie" to be accepted by doubters, and if they had the power (which they don't) to make the Met Office alter forecasts, they would try and get artificially COLD ones issued, so people would think, "Well, they keep saying it's going to be cold, but I reckon it's pretty damned warm". This would tend to make them believe that people in power were trying to hide how warm it was becoming. If you have "evidents" that the government is doing stuff like this in either direction, why not post it - or links to it - in the Climate Change area of the forum? Or if you prefer (?why), send it to me by PM. PS Is it Global Warming altogether you think is mostly a lie, or just that the warming is anthropogenic i.e. that we are to blame for it? Do you actually still doubt that the world's climate has warmed significantly in recent years?

Eeeeeek, the return of snowball earth....even Africa's got a covering!

Lake The lake's huge depth and volume of water gives it an extreme "thermal lag". Although there will probably be freezing in the margins, it will not be frozen over until early January, sometimes later - snowmobile excursions over it apparently run for the months of February and March, when the ice is thickest. The same lag means ice remains until May-June - and is also the reason for its relatively cool summer temps, too....maxes tend to be 15-20C. It's so big that it's a bit like a maritime climate - temps are generally 10C cooler in summer and 10C warmer in winter than surrounding areas away from its influence. Here are some stats: The earliest and latest times of freezing: December 14, 1877; February 6, 1959. Average date: January 9 The earliest and latest times of breakup: April 17, 1923; May 26, 1879. Average date: May 5 Info is mainly from this excellent website: http://www.bww.irk.ru/baikalclimate/baikalice.html . Click on the left-side links for masses more fascinating information.

Painfully slow temp drop here, been hovering around 5C for hours...in fact it's fractionally higher now than it was an hour ago (4.9 vs 4.8C). Steady moderate rain still, wind about ENE (judging by line of raindrop streaks on east-facing windows). I think the best I can hope for is some sleetiness, and I'll probably be asleep when that comes.

Yes, morning of 10th Dec (-0.6C) was my first of the season in inner (but not central) SW London, too....despite the sensor being 25 ft off the ground, on a bird table fixed to the house wall! The other one halfway down the garden was detached from its perch by some birdie or beastie (or the wind) weeks ago, and hasn't worked since. I'm hoping Santa Claus will provide a replacement.....

What strange and ignorant statements. Some - many - of us do, and some - many - of us have. And the commonest taboo, in my experience, is from people who think I am being ridiculous for making the changes I have. It is, of course, impossible to separate out the different motives for making changes. I have a lower income these days (not that it was ever high), so wearing more jumpers and keeping my house a full 2C cooler than I used to, at least when I am alone, makes financial sense. The law has assisted the process, by ensuring that my new (three years ago) boiler is vastly more efficient than its predecessor - ditto the recent fridge-freezer, and lightbulbs. The low-energy bulbs I have happily embraced, too - unlike several friends who swear they give out an awful light (not noticed, strangely, when in my house), and have stockpiled old incandescent ones accordingly. I seldom light or heat more of the house than I am actively using. I try not to boil more water than will make the frequent cup(s) of tea I'm actually making - more mockery from friends who say I'm being absurdly anal about it all....I like to mention the calculation someone once did that suggested that the UK's entire Kyoto commitment could be achieved if we all stopped boiling more water than we need (is that really true?). Recycling has many benefits - I am as concerned about relatively local environment issues as I am about the macro picture - but I now recycle four or more times as much (by volume) as I chuck as 'rubbish'....which can get a bit smelly, as my large kitchen waste bin doesn't need emptying every week, unless I've been entertaining. This would not be possible if my local authority had not made it so, under strong government encouragement - they've recently started accepting all plastic containers and trays, not just bottles. I do not know for certain that this helps my level of carbon emmissions, but I hope so - it certainly helps address local landfill issues. I used to drive pretty much everywhere when I could, even in London - now I cycle or use public transport for most journeys, though that has been partly driven by parking/congestion charge costs, and a desire to get a bit fitter (even at 60!). I still own a car, but it's seldom used, and is fourteen years old - its lower efficiency on occasional outings is more than outweighed, I feel, by the "green" sense of using it for as long as possible, rather than getting a replacement (which I could afford) that has had to be manufactured. And fortunately I have a friendly garage who are happy to keep it going at minimal cost. I am again often ribbed for this when I roll up at friends in the country in my 'rust bucket'. I also fly less frequently than I did - once a year, now, on average, and within Europe: not so long ago it was Brazil, USA, India...and often two or three times a year. Oh, and I seldom buy new clothes, bar socks and underwear - or indeed anything else until it really needs to replacing. I still spend money, but it tends to be on art rather than the more usual retail consumables. I did NONE of this fifteen years ago, and part of my motivation is indeed worries about human effects on the environment in general, and the climate in particular. It is true that my domestic situation has changed - most of the time I'm now the only person here - and I'm also through age and income less inclined to spend/waste and go out/away/abroad than I was. But a simple fact I can give you is that - in exactly the same house - ten years ago I was consuming annual averages of 36,000 KwH in gas, and 4,000 KWh of electricity. Now it is around 22,000 kWh gas, and 2,200 kWh elec. Total reduction in domestic energy needs is nearly 16,000 kWh, or 40% per annum. So I, for one have made real changes, and I have moderated my attachment to modern comforts and high-energy pleasures. But I must in all honesty confess that if I were forty, not sixty, it would have been a lot tougher, and probably not as successful.

Fascinating, sundog...but you should really at least credit/link to the source when you copy big chunks like this verbatim - especially where, as in this case, the blog you found it on seems to have lifted it, in whole or in part, from a fairly recent book, Arctic Ireland by David Dickson. The book is both in print and in copyright. See http://www.whiterowpress.com/arctic.htm .

Within London proper & its UHI, fairly small differences in height habitually make a dramatic difference. I have often - far too often - had sleet down here, while a mile up the road (and just 40m higher) snow is settling. But the side of the city is also important. With a cold wind blowing from the NE - less common, it must be said, in recent years - the showers that come charging across from East Anglia seldom make it to the centre, let alone the south-west where I am: they are intercepted by the high ground of Hampstead, Highgate & Muswell Hill, and can dump there significantly while we are dry. The extra height (130m+) also helps in marginal temp situations. Ironically, though, with the wind at exactly the right angle from just north of east, the centre and west can cop it worse than Hampstead - the famous "Thames Streamer", as in Feb 2009. But overall I suspect Hampstead Heath is (or was) the snowiest place in Inner London. Shooter's Hill (SE of the city, and much the same height) might well rival it, especially with the wind more in the east; but its borough, Greenwich, is not always accepted as being part of Inner London - certainly Shooter's Hill is a lot further from the centre than Hampstead, 8.5 miles vs less than 5, as the crow flies. P.S. Re the North Downs league table, in the Surrey section Reigate Hill (230m+) is renowned for snowfall - but that may be in part because a fairly main road winds steeply down it from the M25, and people often get in trouble when it's dumping.

Or perhaps that should now read "Watch Weather Action and Piers Corbyn - slither and slide as unpredicted Solar-magnetic action (allegedly) gives us weather they said wouldn't happen!"

(1) No, it's because he is astonishingly arrogant in what he says and how he says it, and uttery and rudely dismissive of any other approach to forecasting and those who follow it.....combined with a frequent refusal to acknowledge that a forecast was just plain wrong when it was, or (as in this case) to blame it on unexpected solar events that we can neither confirm nor deny, because he will not explain how we are meant to relate it to the weather on Earth. (2) No, he doesn't, if you look at them all - unless you buy his after-the-event adjustments by a few days, a few hundred miles, and a tendency to describe normal, seasonal, somewhat wintry weather on mountain tops as part-confirmation of forecast exceptional cold, or normal, seasonal somewhat windy weather in the northern isles part-confirmation of forecast exceptional nationwide storms. A little humility and honesty on his part would go a long way to defusing the negative opinion most here hold of him.

It's a N hemisphere winter (not annual) snow cover chart, and the last bar is for 2011 - so each one must show the figure for the winter ending in that year. Thus '1981' is for winter 1980-81 - the cold, snowy winter you mention was the following year, 1981-82; and although much of it fell in December 1981, that is often referred to as 'Winter 1982' (as here).

Not entirely fruitless, and not that easily. There were eight consecutive days, 15-22 December, with the CET mean <1C, four of them at zero or below. My parents were married in central London on 20th December '46, and there was significant snow lying on the ground.But yes, of course, it was nothing compared to what they faced a few weeks after returning from their honeymoon in Torquay. The CET mean dropped below 1C on the 23rd Jan, and stayed there for 45 consecutive days (until 9th March), all but 5 of them below zero (mean), and 19 of them below -2C. Extreme night-time cold was not generally prevalent, though, because it was so cloudy (and snowy). In fact December 2010 provided as many days (4) with the mean in CET-land below -5C, and the four last year were also colder. Mum and Dad started their married life shivering in a tiny flat above a London garage with just a couple of oil heaters for company - they did get away for a while to my grandparents in near-coastal North Wales....and were promptly cut off for a week by a blizzard! I've got a couple of photos of that somewhere - they may have been posted somewhere else on Netweather before, but I might dig 'em out and stick 'em on here, too.