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chapmanslade

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    Chapmanslade, Wiltshire + Charente, France

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  1. I think there are far better chances of heat records going next weekend because this time France is properly hot rather than just late 30C's. There is a very real risk of the French record high (44.1C) going either Sunday or Monday according to the GFS around the Bordeaux area with 850's of 28C or more. The big question is how much this advects North and the timings.
  2. That heat could result in some temperature records falling next weekend. It all depends on timing of the uppers and exactly where they end up, but the French record of 44.1C must be under threat. I'm in the Charente next weekend and just to the south around Bordeaux GFS is suggesting figures of around 42C at 14.00 which must give 43C or 44C a real chance around 17.00 French time. In all honesty with that and minima of 26C, outdoor activities are going to be restricted. Nice hot BBQ anyone ?
  3. Seriously people - 40C needs a huge amount of extra energy over even 35C. There has been no suggestion of anything like that in the UK. You really need everything lined up with a southerly feed of extreme heat over several days to manage it - hence it hasn't happened in recorded history. Plus the source needs to be even hotter and France just isn't that hot where it is only mid 30's anyway.
  4. Second night of intense storms here in the Charente (storm mentioned above). By far the most electrically active storm I have ever witnessed with constant lightning (and I mean constant). Pretty gusty wind and virtually no rain reached the ground. Rinse and repeat tonight. Heat is very oppressive.
  5. Significant storms here in the Charente overnight but little rain. Elevated in nature, started at midnight and ran on until 08.00 this morning. Minimum temperature last night was 22C after a max of 35c yesterday. Oppressively hot and humid today means going outside is unpleasant.
  6. Had a meaty storm here this afternoon in the Charente (after a small one this morning) This picture taken as it was arriving and left about two hours later. Formed in about 30 minutes from two discrete cells which merged into a bit of a beast leaving everywhere flooded and a lot of lightning damage.
  7. chapmanslade

    European Storm & Convective Discussion

    Had a meaty storm here this afternoon in the Charente (after a small one this morning) This picture taken as it was arriving and left about two hours later. Formed in about 30 minutes from two discrete cells which merged into a bit of a beast leaving everywhere flooded and a lot of lightning damage.
  8. Fog means no surface based convection but higher level convection can happen independent of ground conditions such as happened on Saturday night when it was very misty here
  9. Currently watching the lightning from the storm over Gt Missenden where I used to live from 80 miles away and my son driving down the A303 rang to say he could see it in his rear view mirror and he is at least 120 miles away. The storm is back building quicker than it is moving north
  10. http://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=nl#y=49.7966;x=-2.4666;z=8;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0; This is even better with 'thunder' sound rings that are remarkably accurate
  11. Initiation over Channel has occurred with elevated storms moving N towards Exeter area and a little E of that. Look very electrically active. These are as a result of destabilisation of the EML and not anything to do with diurnal heating. SST will have no influence on these.
  12. chapmanslade

    European Storm & Convective Discussion

    Nice to see the first CB's of the year here in the Charente today - a few good local strikes and booming thunder
  13. All assuming there is any precipitation at that specific time of course. If the period of higher uppers coincide with no significant precipitation it is all academic.
  14. Indeed so - I posted last Saturday that the Met office forecaster I was speaking to said 70% chance of cold after this weekend which was in his words a very high degree of certainty at that range. That obviously leaves 30% chance of it not doing so.
  15. Well on my Met office open day visit last week they said the UKMO model is the best up to 3 days, together with ECMWF which slightly out performs it, in the UK. This latter part being bold for a reason as in other parts of the world it isn't always the case. Plus in general in the 72hrs area the spread of models is usually fairly tight so differences not massive. What was interesting was the suggestion they gave that model definition was unlikely to improve much further as 'computing power' is not really the limiting factor - data density at T0 is.
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