SnowBear

I've seen it much worse than that on that road lol

There is nothing more exhilarating than a damn good storm, getting buffeted by the wind on a headland watching the sea boil and the waves break over the rocks. I used to live in Newlyn, Cornwall and seen this many times. It's fun, exciting, energising. But there comes a point where its no longer fun when the wind is able to uproot loads of trees or even snap then in two, take roofs off, smash other buildings and property, and cause floods in places not usually seen. The aftermath and the clear up is a headache along with the financial costs involved. I don't mind storms at all, but this one can keep out to sea as far as I am concerned. Sadly it isn't going to and somewhere is going to get a fair bit of damage and people hurt.

Some badly kept Rum by the sound of it.. But, hey ho, shove an over sized shirt or two up on a couple of broom sticks, full to the wind and they will be in Calais before they can finish a couple of good shantys.

I note some posts on 1987. I lived in Weeley nr Clacton on Sea at the time. My work was on USAF Bentwaters. I lived at the end of a dirt track drive with a stream beside it. After many hours of high winds, which at times were constant and unlike anything I've heard since, we lost.... Conservatory roof, garage roof, stables, dog kennels, numerous trees down in the paddocks. The drive was flooded for over a week afterwards, had never flooded before. I spent the days I couldn't it get out of the drive with chain saw in hand cutting up the trees which had come down. The holiday caravan park across the railway line had every caravan on its side or smashed up. Once I could get into work the drive to USAF Bentwaters was horrific, tree after tree after tree down, damage to houses, shops and workplaces, and the nearer we got to Rendlesham the worse it got until you saw the swathes of trees down near the forest. Although not officially a hurricane as no warm core to the storm, the damage was of a hurricane. Mother Nature will do as she wishes, and no doubt we will see an '87 again at some point, but I can guarantee you don't really want to see it, it wasn't pretty, as it won't be pretty wherever Ciaran makes landfall if at the strengths they are forecasting.

10.00am CDT - 70mph - TS - 993mb 01.00pm CDT - 80mph - Cat1 - 985mb 04.00pm CDT - 125mph - Cat3 - 960mb 07.00pm CDT - 145mph - Cat4 - 941mb 10.00pm CDT - 160mph - Cat5 - 927mb 01.00am CDT - 165mph - Cat5 - 923mb Landfall In 15 hours Otis bombed by 70mb, went from TS to Cat 5,and increased windspeed by 95mph from 70mph to 165mph. It took 6 hours to go from TS to Cat3, and then 6 hours from Cat3 to Cat5. The length of time to go from TS to Cat5... 12 hours.

I think it's wrong to criticise too much when trying to forecast extreme events like this. What may be said is perhaps we rely too much on models now instead of a good dose of the human eye and intuition. No matter how much we try and model the real world there are some events which will be outliers, the sudden volcanic eruption, the earthquake with no warnings, the bombing cyclone and equally the non events which occur too even when the models seem to be saying it's a dead cert. There is also the problem where if an alert was given before the system had barely become a TS, and the forecast was for a Cat4-5, and that doesn't materialise, again questions would have been asked. It's tricky getting these things right, thankfully we now seem to be getting most right, but we will never get them 100% right.

Hurricanes and cyclones are notoriously difficult to predict. We are lucky to be able to forecast as much as we can with them.

Yes, but I don't think that would be enough to see whole civilisations and tribes to up root and move hundreds of miles. The Maya for example moved from Guatemala up through Central America and eventually came to the Yacatan as the dry line (drought line) advanced over the course of 100 years or so. Each time they would try to overcome the advancing dry line with elaborate irrigation schemes to allow the to continue to grow maize, but were soon abandoned, or even unfinished as the schemes were not enough to solve the drought problem. In my view a localised river course change would not be a big enough reason to move over the large distances the natives moved, sometimes hundreds of miles at a time.

Interesting pre-print here, obviously remember this isn't peer reviewed yet. A study from Australia by the BoM and UNSW. Long-term surface impact of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai-like stratospheric water vapor injection (Pre-print - AU - Aug 2023) Just a moment... WWW.RESEARCHGATE.NET

This I find interesting, rock carvings once submerged in the Amazon have reappeared and can be studied where rainfall has dropped to near record levels. So what is significant about this. Well, it means the drought and lack of rain fall at least in that particular location is not unprecedented, and may have been at that level for protracted periods of time. How this could relate to our current situation I don't fully know, but if we look at the history of the Native Americans such as the Olmecs, Maya and Toltecs etc and later the Inca and Aztecs who inhabited that land for over 4,000 years before they were "discovered" they were frequently on the move as the climate changed and droughts and dry lines ebbed and flowed. Whole civilisations would up sticks and travel to new locations. These ancient civilisations created elaborate and extensive water irrigation often to only be abandoned a short time afterwards as they once again moved on to seek more favourable conditions to grow crops etc. Whatever the reason, right now that location has once again returned to the conditions needed for those rocks to reappear, conditions once seen by a long ago civilisation and long enough for them to carve those rocks and use them for arrow sharpening. Brazil drought reveals ancient rock carvings of human faces WWW.BBC.CO.UK The carvings of human faces on the shore of the Amazon are thought to be at least 1,000 years old.

You assume much. You don't know me, and we haven't debated at all so not sure how you can draw any conclusions about what I may think or not. When I have time (at the moment work is busy and also my Dad in hospital once again this year recovering from major emergency surgery) we can perhaps debate on the appropriate thread. For now, back to the original topic, Kirkcaldy, back to you.

To be honest, that's a human problem, not a planetary problem. We don't know for sure how quick the climate can change but I suspect it's faster than we think and part of what we are seeing now is possibly Mother Nature showing us exactly who is boss. We have lost the ability to move and adapt to climate change, plus there are too many of us so if the climate does change quickly we are at a loss what to do. The planet can become much warmer and it will still be here with living things on it.

Gas explosion story just hit the BBC news. Large explosion near Oxford - reports WWW.BBC.CO.UK Images and video shared online appear to show the sky to the north-west of the city lit up.

Rumble here in Colchester just now (9:27pm). Below a photo from earlier..

Tonga volcano triggered seafloor debris stampede WWW.BBC.CO.UK Last year's volcanic eruption in the Pacific caused the fastest underwater flows ever recorded.

I disagree. As wind speed increase the force on buildings and objects increases by three times. So it's exponential. Even a 25mph increase means it can be nearly 75% more force being applied against buildings etc. Additionally as wind speed increases suction on the leeward side of structures increases, so you can get sides of buildings pulled out if they are not up to hurricane standard. What may stand up to a Cat 3, may not in even a weak Cat 4.

If that graph is accurate, know what I find interesting? The Arctic temp begins to go up before the global.

Mammatus in Colchester, very humid.

Not sure but I think anyone can create a blog on NW? That way all the charts for one person is in one place. Perhaps of possible the NW admin could make a subset of storm forecasting blogs so they are all in one place and can be viewed together?

Talk about bias... BBC again.. Zilch about the rainfall despite the headline perhaps indicating a look at all weather events... Article goes onto just focus on wildfires Hawaii wildfires follow extreme weather events worldwide The wildfires in Hawaii follow other extreme weather events worldwide in recent months. The University of Hawaii has said large fires break out almost annually in some parts of the Hawaiian islands, but that the scale of the current fires is unusual. Experts say many of the wildfires around the world are linked to human-induced climate change that is exacerbated by the continued use of fossil fuels. Some regions - such as the western US - have seen an increase in the area burnt by wildfires in recent decades. Here are other devastating wildfires over the past year: Greece - at least seven people died in hundreds of fires across the mainland and the Greek islands Spain and Portugal - thousands of people have been displaced in wildfires that are currently raging. In July, Spanish authorities said that at least 300 people had died from excess heat Algeria, Tunisia - at least 34 people were killed in Algeria due to wildfires that spread across north Africa Canada - more than 25,000 acres (100 sq km) burned in what was Canada's worst wildfire season, and remembered by dramatic images of smoke covering New York city Chile - more than 20 people dead, at least 1,100,000 acres (4451 sq km) burned following the worst drought in a thousand years Kazakhstan - at least 14 people dead, around 150,000 acres (607 sq km) burned Source:BBC Live Newsfeed

Interesting to note this paragraph from a BBC article on the wildfires.. Scientists also note that some parts of the Hawaiian islands are covered with non-native grasses that are more flammable than native plants. The native plants there have no doubt evolved with fire from the volcanoes, we introduce ones which haven't... What caused the Hawaii wildfires? WWW.BBC.CO.UK What sparked the fires is still a mystery, but a mix of wind and dry weather helped the flames spread.

1974...maybe, I was a child at the time and we were living near Marazion, Penzance. All hell let loose, we lost power, went into Penzance and all power out there too, constant lightning and torrential rain. Went on all night too.

I think it's OK if a tree is in real danger of causing damage, but sometimes they go in and clear multiple trees, many off pathways and not really a danger to anyone.

BBC running as a headline on the fire in Hawaii not a mention on the amazing rainfall that's being seen, hurricane totals without a hurricane, some places three times the normal amount and rates of 10" of rain in 6 hours? Media is all focused on heat and nothing else.

That's crazy and possibly illegal too.