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About SnowBear

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    Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

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  1. With the complexity and uncertainty of Fridays low it is pretty much still in the realms of long range even if only a couple of days away, if we cannot get past the outcome of that low all else beyond for now becomes a bit meaningless. Unusual yes, but it is how it is for now.
  2. Sometimes I feel too many take weather models as gospel, it's going to happen. They only show what "might" happen with varying degrees of accuracy depending on the complexities within the weather systems at the time. With the current set up for the coming Friday onwards is quite complex, small shifts in the track of the low (I won't use correction, it's completely the wrong word to use), the depth of cold on land, amount of snow cover remaining plus many other variables make for it to be almost impossible at this time to predict what will happen, but the models give us a range of possible outcomes. Some time ago on here and now when I find time I followed and did Hurricane tracking, it taught me a lot on predictions, potentials, and possibilities within computer models. I suggest maybe some would like to participate later this year in some Hurricane tracking? Tracks and conditions changing hour by hour, sometimes in even less timeframes? Models are an aide into predicting but not the absolute.
  3. Lol, I am sure more than a couple of people have come up with "StormX". I doubt Daniel even saw that.
  4. Must admit, it is a bit pointless and a waste of time too, we never had problems when they weren't named lol
  5. It would work if the agencies wanted it to work. In a couple of hours a set of lists for the next 20 years could be done quite easily and accepted by all. Not that hard to do.
  6. Tbh, all the European Met offices should come up with an agreed name list they work from, avoids confusion as we see today.
  7. Apparently the Metoffice didn't name it as the French Met named it Storm David. Pinned Tweet Met Office @metoffice · 2h For clarification #StormFionn named by @MetEireann affected Ireland on Tuesday night with minimal impact on the UK. Last night's gales were from #StormDavid named by French meteorological service @meteofrance.
  8. Just to put this storm into context with '87, there were an estimated 15 million, yes you read right, 15,000,000 trees downed in '87. Tree after tree after tree. Some roads were blocked for weeks, huge areas of Rendlesham Forest in Suffolk were flattened, chain saws were busy for weeks. I know as I was one of those using one! On top of that was flooding, widespread structural damage and nearly everyone's garden looking like a bomb had hit it. This was a mere breeze in comparison :-D
  9. Definitely no comparison to '87, not in the slightest.
  10. Hurricane Ophelia

    I don't think so, the dry air is circulating inwards at a lower level to those high cloud tops and it's giving the illusion of an eye. Bit difficult to explain without a bunch of illustrations. Essentially 2d pic doesn't always depict what is happening in 3d.
  11. Hurricane Ophelia

    It will be interesting to do a really good analysis on Ophelia after all is over. I think it could be seen to be a double transition, full tropical hurricane over 26°c+ water. Then into a rare "medicane" type hybrid drawing energy from the trough and in low shear/favourable environment for that type of tropical system and able to sustain strength over cooler waters. And lastly to a post/extra tropical.
  12. Hurricane Ophelia

    The joys of rural living :-D
  13. Hurricane Ophelia

    Please do heed warnings and be extra sensible if you try and get close to the sea to observe or indeed up mountains etc. If you do get into trouble invariably emergency services or the RNLI and mountain rescue teams, many of whom are volunteers, then have to get involved to rescue you because you were putting yourself needlessly at risk. Don't be stupid! On that note, to all emergency services who have to go out on shouts in the coming rough weather, thank you and come home safe!
  14. Hurricane Ophelia

    Just as an addition to my last post, Monday night is the time to watch any surge for the Bristol Channel, winds by then have backed to SW, but equally easing at the same time.