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About SnowBear

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    Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)

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  1. SnowBear

    Hurricane Michael

    To be honest I see it as a Cat 5 and the destruction was of a Cat 5, a couple of mph makes no odds at that intensity either side of the 4/5 category line. I also personally think a rapidly intensifying hurricane is more destructive in some ways over one which evolves more slowly to the same level.
  2. SnowBear

    Hurricane Florence

    Must admit, was checking text at NOAA as didn't think it was 104 miles. It's moving 295/14kn which would mean land fall in under 10 hours at that range if 104 miles was to the eye. A more likely range perhaps was 1040 miles at an earlier fix?
  3. With the complexity and uncertainty of Fridays low it is pretty much still in the realms of long range even if only a couple of days away, if we cannot get past the outcome of that low all else beyond for now becomes a bit meaningless. Unusual yes, but it is how it is for now.
  4. Sometimes I feel too many take weather models as gospel, it's going to happen. They only show what "might" happen with varying degrees of accuracy depending on the complexities within the weather systems at the time. With the current set up for the coming Friday onwards is quite complex, small shifts in the track of the low (I won't use correction, it's completely the wrong word to use), the depth of cold on land, amount of snow cover remaining plus many other variables make for it to be almost impossible at this time to predict what will happen, but the models give us a range of possible outcomes. Some time ago on here and now when I find time I followed and did Hurricane tracking, it taught me a lot on predictions, potentials, and possibilities within computer models. I suggest maybe some would like to participate later this year in some Hurricane tracking? Tracks and conditions changing hour by hour, sometimes in even less timeframes? Models are an aide into predicting but not the absolute.
  5. Lol, I am sure more than a couple of people have come up with "StormX". I doubt Daniel even saw that.
  6. Must admit, it is a bit pointless and a waste of time too, we never had problems when they weren't named lol
  7. It would work if the agencies wanted it to work. In a couple of hours a set of lists for the next 20 years could be done quite easily and accepted by all. Not that hard to do.
  8. Tbh, all the European Met offices should come up with an agreed name list they work from, avoids confusion as we see today.
  9. Apparently the Metoffice didn't name it as the French Met named it Storm David. Pinned Tweet Met Office @metoffice · 2h For clarification #StormFionn named by @MetEireann affected Ireland on Tuesday night with minimal impact on the UK. Last night's gales were from #StormDavid named by French meteorological service @meteofrance.
  10. Just to put this storm into context with '87, there were an estimated 15 million, yes you read right, 15,000,000 trees downed in '87. Tree after tree after tree. Some roads were blocked for weeks, huge areas of Rendlesham Forest in Suffolk were flattened, chain saws were busy for weeks. I know as I was one of those using one! On top of that was flooding, widespread structural damage and nearly everyone's garden looking like a bomb had hit it. This was a mere breeze in comparison :-D
  11. Definitely no comparison to '87, not in the slightest.
  12. SnowBear

    Hurricane Ophelia

    I don't think so, the dry air is circulating inwards at a lower level to those high cloud tops and it's giving the illusion of an eye. Bit difficult to explain without a bunch of illustrations. Essentially 2d pic doesn't always depict what is happening in 3d.
  13. SnowBear

    Hurricane Ophelia

    It will be interesting to do a really good analysis on Ophelia after all is over. I think it could be seen to be a double transition, full tropical hurricane over 26°c+ water. Then into a rare "medicane" type hybrid drawing energy from the trough and in low shear/favourable environment for that type of tropical system and able to sustain strength over cooler waters. And lastly to a post/extra tropical.
  14. SnowBear

    Hurricane Ophelia

    The joys of rural living :-D