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Kid Thunder

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Kid Thunder last won the day on August 22 2015

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About Kid Thunder

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    focusing more on storm updates/chasing

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    thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather

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  1. It's not a major outlier but it doesn't have loads of support either. There's lots of scatter from next weekend - GFS doesn't have a clue at the moment.
  2. Ain't that the truth! Can't complain about the Sheffield storm today but looking at the bigger picture I agree with you ?
  3. It was quick and lively wasn't it? ? We literally got a few spits and spots in Dronfield with the sky as black as night to the east. As close as you can get without getting the worst of the precip. Back home was more of a direct hit, but like I said in my recent post it has all very quickly evaporated.
  4. Lovely convective skyscapes here in Sheffield ? Sunny and hit again after the earlier shenanigans. I'm home now in NE Sheffield and you would never know it rained ??
  5. I'm visiting family in Dronfield and the storm to the SSE, which will just miss our garden thankfully, is giving out some lovely rumbles
  6. Often a hotspot in situations like this. I'd be cautiously optimistic if I were you.
  7. It is notable though that, even with the usual FI scatter, there isn't a single 'cluster' there with a unique variety of options. I think that's what @Alderc was referring to ?
  8. I remember questioning the verification of the output earlier this month and very helpfully folks in the know posted the relevant stats in this thread. IIRC the GEM was second behind the ECM for verification so it's definitely worth taking seriously as a plausible option later next week.
  9. Friday's chart from the GFS 12z has imports written all over it. Looking more likely that we break down Friday night - hopefully something thundery! ?️
  10. There's a link for sure but it's not as straightforward as that as we know. Matt will know that as well but he rarely posts any other charts at the moment other than the AAM forecasts. It confuses me tbh because it just seems he's willing on an unsettled summer.
  11. Yes to say it is the worst of the runs tonight is doing it a disservice. It's still an excellent showing. Perhaps a decent go at a second build from day 10 onwards as well.
  12. Half-mast for now then ? I am looking forward to the prospect of a heatwave from midweek next week, but yes I agree some caution is advised. We are heading in the right direction but in the days ahead not every operational will be as good as this evening's output, nor will every ensemble suite. Let's enjoy the ride ahead though as the models get to grips with the intensity and longevity of this potential blowtorch!
  13. I saw that strike from my vantage point. It was the only time I saw two cg's at the same time during my observations that evening. It was a tad more rain-wrapped from my position, though - nice clear shot you've got there ?
  14. A quick recap of my day, without getting too waffly. It has been an absolute classic and my favourite/most successful chase so far. - started fairly benign as I failed to get a good handle on the storms close to Oxford. I didn't want to head too far south and it was the southern side of these storms that were the strongest. Eventually I bailed back north and rejoined the M1 as there were decent signs of development east of Leicester (good call!) - parked up at Leicester services and had a number of cells swarming around my location, with a nice shelf cloud developing to the west (image posted previously on thread). However there were stronger cells grouping in a line up the M1 north east of Nottingham - I hoped I could drive up to Trowell services before they struck (wishful thinking) - after driving through one storm core that gave me the heaviest rain I've ever driven through, I parked up at Trowell just as another storm was strengthening to the east. It was already close enough to give some moderate rain and there was no photogenic shelf to witness from my vantage point. The rain came and it was torrential for a very long time. Perhaps even a microburst at one point which had some hail mixed in - it was probably the heaviest rainfall rates I've witnessed. - when the rain was more manageable I headed back onto the M1 and headed north, passing through some small but intense rain cores on the way before ending up driving through southern Chesterfield and into the Peak District via Baslow roundabout). After seeing more lightning strikes close by as well as more torrential rain, I parked up near Owler Bar and let the storm clear before getting a picture with my phone as the mist began to roll in. I was hoping for some back edge lightning but the northern side towards Stocksbridge in Sheffield was stronger and I was nowhere near there so I called it quits and took an easy drive home ? Attached is one dashcam still of a small storm as I was heading back to Leicester, a shot of the storm approaching from Leicester services as well as a phone photo from the Peak District as the mist began to roll back in. I've linked to some raw footage I took with my camera of the rain at Trowell services - it switches to the possible microburst at about 1:56 into the video, FYI.
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