Harry

Euro4 currently pointing towards thunderstorms breaking out across NI tomorrow evening, running (quickly!) NE across SW, C and NE Scotland, clearing by around 6z Wednesday AM. A fairly localised but not insignificant clump of activity.

If a cold front and pre-frontal trough doesn't detonate the unstable airmass expected to be in-situ, then I'm emigrating. Granted not everywhere will see storms, but if most people don't see even a distant light show/stunning looking cloudscapes of distant storms, it'll be a cruel twist from mother nature. Key will be if the trough forms and where the really unstable humid air ends up...timing too will be critical.

Not sure about this assessment either based on the current charts. A trough appears to swing in from the west during they morning which should trigger some thundery outbreaks. The trough however engages maximum heat and instability across central and eastern areas. I think discussing 'favoured' areas is slightly misleading as most areas of the UK between Tuesday night and Thursday night and different times are at risk of thunderstorms. Potential then MAY return Friday night for SE quarter.

I shouldn't think we'll be hugely import reliant if the charts come to fruition (or even if the values are downgraded).

I'm going to avoid any analysis until much nearer the time. I think it could be like 17th July last year (if I remember the date correctly) where storms were forecast for certain areas (as late as 10pm) before storms exploded in a much wider arc. So, even if storms are forecast and charts agree etc etc doesn't mean storms won't pop up just about anywhere under the conditions forecast

I don't think instability will be an issue...I think that is a given in this plume scenario. What kills us is equally strong CIN which is probably likely. However, encouraging as you say are the fronts/troughs which should act as a catalyst for storms. Furthermore the extreme heat (by UK standards) Wednesday could be enough to break the cap in areas where no other trigger exists perhaps capable of generating pretty severe storms. As ever devil in the detail, however I'm not seeing a huge amount of the ingredients lacking if I'm honest...for now.... What a great week ahead - very hot, very humid, threat of storms across a large swathe of the UK...so even if storms aren't near me, I may have a chance at seeing some distance illuminations

Downgrades have, as to be expected, begun, however still on for a nationwide event.

The 00z GFS a significant downgrade in my view. We keep heat going but we are, on the face of that run, limited to one plume mid week, with the real instability shunting East. It won't be too far away mind with still high temperatures persisting, and the general trend has been for a reload, BUT, first signs of week long storm potential vanishing into a narrower window. The runs over the next few days (as ever) will be interesting

Next week is showing signs of one of the best and most sustained, significant plumes for many a year. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that a significant majority of you will be spectacularly evicted from this hell hole

Lol...you don't need to ask that favour...come Sunday/Monday if the charts are still looking positive this thread will be a hive of activity (possibly even crash altogether lol)

Far too early to say at the moment. Currently any time between Wednesday and Sunday suggesting potential, probably earlier for southern and western parts. Still very early doors

Not so much as a drop of drizzle...so imagine my surprise looking up to see this lot right now (excuse the orientation)

I saw this the other evening, which was also a humid airmass. Looks bizarre under calm conditions.

Indeed, charts still going bonkers for heat and moderate to significant storm potential...the best sort of plume being hinted at, one that keeps on recharging for consecutive days

Far far too early to tell whether anyone will see storms. If the current charts were to come to fruition, I wouldn't rule anywhere out to be honest.

Regarding the first plume (I wasn't here for the second) the SSTs had no impact. The issue on that occasion was that the zone of significant instability was too far east (well, about 5-10 miles east of my location) meaning that this is the area where storms did fire, and very explosively too. Based on the current charts, I can say with some confidence SSTs will be no issue. For mid level storms, SSTs are of no real concern in any event.

Indeed, all charts must be treated with extreme caution. ECM in my view is as stunning, if not more stunning than the GFS. When the two are on the same wavelength its very encouraging. Showing plenty of heat and humidity pumping north along with what looks like shallow troughs drifting due North (or even NNW) from Spain, over Biscay and across the W portions of the UK. Aside from what the CAPE charts are pointing to, the synoptics couldn't be better in my view. Even some jet stream activity potentially in the mix.

Oh, Surrey....if only I could get as excited as you! Those charts look positively stunning but as you rightly say massive amounts of change expected. The plumes a few weeks back resembled that a week out only to fizzle back east and downgrade. For El Brumo however I do seem to recall similar looking charts a week out, only for them to persist through to the event so it certainly is possible. However, we have equally had very colourful charts which haven't realised into storms at all (well capped atmosphere/lack of triggers). Either way, looks as though we are still on for some potentially significant heat next week regardless of whether that translates into storms or not.

Yup...echo the stormy feel though...quite humid feeling with some high level mammatus

I don't think there is any sticky pants going on to be fair, merely commenting on increasingly consistent signs of some possible convective weather...the purpose of this thread. The recent runs of GFS have been increasingly consistent as regards a plume moving N/NE across France early to middle of next week. Some runs push it clear of the UK without really gracing our shores, others bring slightly more robust thundery potential at various stages through the week. The consistent aspect of the runs has been hot and humid air moving north over France...where it goes after that is very very changeable at the moment (as you'd expect the best part of a week out). ECM offering even stronger plume potential and some really quite high temperatures and potentially humidity...perhaps our first 30C+ day of the year. Extent of any thunder risk (based on the latest ECM models) is up in the air as it will be fairly HP dominant...that is not to say surface or thundery lows could not spin off over France given the potentially very high temperatures. So...one can conclude very little at this stage as regards thundery potential given the extremely volatile model runs. There are, nevertheless, increasingly strong signals for some southerly driven weather, with some very high temperatures next week.

That pic, while a nice garden, is lost on me completely

06z wipes it out again...the past couple of days really highlights the fact that 00z, 06z, 12z and 18z run off different data

As long as the wall cloud doesn't drop a funnel over my house, your house or anyone else's for that matter

Going to be a frustrating week I suspect waiting to see how the models pan out with regards a plume next week. In the past four runs, we can summarise the situation largely as follows; 1. No plume coming close 2. Plume across C/S France 3. Plume across France/Benelux 4. Plume affecting much of England/France/Benelux The models keep flittering between the above and with only one run in four showing some potential reaching our shores, I would remain exceedingly sceptical of anything it churns out. Golden rule obviously being pre-Sunday/Monday, take charts with a pinch of salt (though the 00z is nice viewing) Nice though there is a potential alternative offering to these beastly westerly/northerly breezes...I know I have been abroad recently, but its pretty much back to the status quo before I left for hols.

I think naming them post event is better I quite like the impressive Spanish list MP-R posted though how many la clipers are there likely to be? Furthermore how many Kent clippers will there be??