Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Harry

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,810

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    20

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Harry

  1. Harry
    So, the CZ threat ended in a bust (such is to be expected with such unpredictable aspects of our weather). It is nevertheless very warm and humid this evening, which assuming skies remain largely clear tomorrow will easily allow temperatures to skip close to 30C...yay!
  2. Harry
    At Moorgate today, but have heard nothing since so questioning whether it was thunder (the sky had gone dark at the time). There is nothing on Blitzortung so maybe I am mistaken.
  3. Harry
    Yay thunder in London ...though nothing on Blitzortung - yet
  4. Harry
    It is very humid in London today, perhaps the most humid 'feeling' it has been for several weeks (including the heatwave earlier this week). Leads me to suggest that while any showers today may not be incredibly electrical, downpours could be very intense.
  5. Harry
    The Lightning rate across Suffolk is insane!
  6. Harry
    Convergence zone
  7. Harry
    I am just in total awe at the phenomenal rate these thunderheads are exploding. Bit frustrating the skies here are as crystal as can be, but just to my North the rate of CB development is just eye watering.
  8. Harry
    Some new towers starting to go up closer to London - Essex way at a guess. Still quite small, but vertical and robust looking.
  9. Harry
    The line of Cbs across the N London skyline is breathtaking. Taken some photos although the grubbiness of the windows has spoiled them somewhat.
  10. Harry
    Judging by the sferic activity showing on Blitzortung it appears to me a CZ is forming (hence eroding the cap)
  11. Harry
    Lol - look at my more recent post - amazing how quickly that has developed. Personally I am not expecting anything for our neck of the woods - skies behind it are pretty much totally clear and every warning and model projection I have seen shows us staying dry. No reason to expect otherwise sadly (despite the obscene instability modelled).
  12. Harry
    Here you, last picture before I go...full on mature Cb now, I can assume its located where sferics are currently showing on Blitzortung. Worth noting if you look back through my posts in the past 10 minutes or so, you can see just how explosively this bad boy has developed. Good luck all...
  13. Harry
    Ok....the photo of a tower I posted 10 minutes is EXPLODING....it is now a full on textbook Cb (and I can see a further anvil behind it) There is another tower drying to go up ahead of it too. No sferics detected so far but very much expect that to change soon...bit of a shame really as I'll be off home shortly This cell has now developed an overshooting top...will do one more photo just before I leave.
  14. Harry
    Sorry it is very hazy and much clearer with the naked eye....this however has just started developing in the past 10 minutes (not visible in my last photo)
  15. Harry
    I'm at Cannon Street and what I'm seeing is way way off to the WNW of St Pauls, so as a guess I would say Oxfordshire way maybe? Nothing immediately apparent on satellite or radar so perhaps it's just fair weather Cu...but looking increasingly like a robust Cb See photo (very hazy!)...zoom in past the spire. Extremely far away but increasingly Cb looking IMO.
  16. Harry
    It is extremely difficult to tell as the haze is increasing along the horizon, but it looks as if (large uncertainty due to haze) the cap has broken way off to the W/NW of London. Two areas of apparent towering Cu/Cb, one of which is rather flat looking at the top.
  17. Harry
    Cu field has appeared around London in the past hour, coinciding with rocketing temperatures (after a hazy/cloud patch moved across late morning). Temperatures are around 28C/29C here right now, perhaps might squeeze a 30C in these parts in the next hour or so. I am thinking based on the look of the sky there could well be some isolated convection through the evening here, in line with recent forecast/warnings updates. Jealous of those up North, those storms have appeared awesome.
  18. Harry
    Correct me if I am wrong, but you need a seriously dry layer below the thundercloud to end up with that eventuality? Most of the air in the thunder prone areas will contain a lot of moisture and therefore I would think a dry thunderstorm would be quite unlikely.
  19. Harry
    While this may appear like looking for hope where non exists for my neck of the woods, I am curious about the arrival of a jet streak over the SE during the early hours of Wednesday and whether this could offset the ridging here (c/f GFS). Currently yet to find a single model which is of the mind that it will increase the chances of any precipitation across the SE, but stranger things have happened....still though any risk I suspect remains at <10%
  20. Harry
    Indeed - Beeb has been showing a warm front moving up from the south, however FAX chart does not show this.
  21. Harry
    Advection of unstable warm and humid air does indeed often lead to thundery conditions but that is not the same as a dynamic warm front.
  22. Harry
    Curious as to how this warm front tracking North during Tuesday night plays out. Currently the BBC not really modelling any precip off of it but you never know.... Conditions are seldom good in the UK for warm front triggered thunderstorms however given the instability present it just may well do the trick. The only time I've witnessed warm front thunderstorms was in the US and they were pretty incredible, along with (I think) September 2009 in Kent but that was more akin to a CZ straddling the warm front. If there's one golden rule I've learned about plumes its to expect the unexpected - that is to say if you're sat under a few thousand MLCAPE do not be surprised to wake up to unexpected fireworks - which has been the case for me over the past couple of years.
  23. Harry
    People hoping for an eastward shift....certainly a novel concept
  24. Harry
    Agree, Dave - I've experienced 11 thunder days so far this year which is above average for sure. My gut tells me at the moment not to take charts too literally as it seems to be a very unpredictable period coming up. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the broader synoptics let alone the finer detail (eg. pre-frontal troughs and CZs) . For example, my iPhone app is now suggesting another round of 30C+ heat for Wednesday with temps still persisting in the high 20s through Thursday.
  25. Harry
    Indeed - not a common thing by any stretch...a very interesting (and highly unpredictable I would suggest) period coming up in the next few days. Its quite oppressively warm this evening and this is merely a foreword at what the next few days will bring! Bring it on
×
×
  • Create New...