Harry

Looks like the front is finally igniting - just a few miles to my east - boooo!

Sky going dark here - will it flicker some more?? Should be coinciding soon with the peak MUCAPE progged by NMM

Yes, definitely a flash of lightning and rumble of thunder in Bexley. Just started chucking it down with convective rain again

Flash of lightning and EXCEPTIONALLY elevated thunder here - woohoo!!!

Lucky you if you’ve seen 2x lightning flashes @Robbie Garrett - nothing here (yet!)

Lightning becoming more prolific to the SW of London @Lauren - I’m ruling out nothing for us

Atmosphere is definitely trying to make its mind up - just had a few minutes of huge convective raindrops, now dry again! Loving the lightning SW of London - hoping it will migrate! Come on!!

Fingers crossed. NMM is my favourite model for storm prediction

Sky flooding with AcCas here @Robbie Garrett. NMM 5KM gives us around 1,000 CAPE. Two signs for me that give optimism. We have until 10-11 I reckon

Sky here now beginning to flood with AcCas. Can it develop over the coming hours into some refreshing storms??

Northern France coming alive now along that axis of developing MUCAPE..... hopefully going to be an interesting evening!

Curious about this evening across the SE quarter. My trusty NMM yields a band of c.1,000 MUCAPE along the front as it comes through. It has been quite accurate at this point as the tongue of instability is modelled to be where we have seen lightning thus far this afternoon (up to IoW but not quite getting inland). But it’s expected to move inland and become more expansive over the next 4-6 hours. The projected rainfall is virtually zero, but the reflectivity on the high resolution NMM does indicate something thundery looking passing with the front.

Some fantastic videos circulating of positive lightning strikes across the SW this morning. The thunder was fantastic and chimes with one forum member’s experiences in Plymouth this morning

I’ve experienced MANY very hot spells over the years (30C plus) which did not result in storms (even any rain)…so I am not on the “it must, surely!?” bandwagon Very much hope there will be of course, particularly as long dry hot spells can aid fantastic lightning…not entirely sure I can cite the evidence as to why, but I’ve read it and witnessed it numerous times over the years.

Super bright flash of lightning and rumble in C London just now - literally seconds after I was thinking 'well that's the thunder risk gone for us today now'

@The Tall Weatherman you need to appreciate models will calculate CAPE differently and generate different amounts. Dan who produced today’s forecast on Convective Weather is a bona fide meteorologist who, I think I’m right in saying, undertook his thesis on CAPE - he knows what he’s talking about

Good luck to all you guys in the north and east today. Hopefully you have more luck than the favoured areas yesterday. For us southern folk there seems to be a small chance of lightning over C/S/SE England Saturday night - NMM has been consistently showing a swathe of MUCAPE crossing the region. Nothing remarkable but a possibility I’m keeping an eye on

Feeling increasingly ripe for a downpour here in the SE - 23/24C with humidity at 54% and a dew point to 14C. Certainly feels the most humid so far this year. Fair weather cumulus building with the sun beaming down…gut feel is we won’t see anything here but equally I wouldn’t be surprised if cells did start to fire given the ground level conditions.

Not anticipating anything thundery here today now following model updates, but will say it’s notably more humid here now compared to yesterday and this is wafting north and westwards. I’d be surprised if there aren’t some corkers further north and west in the next 24 hours good luck all!

I think I’m correct in saying that through tonight we can expect to find the humidity begin to increase. We haven’t really had a proper humid day so far this year, despite the numerous storms seen here since Mid-May. Wonder if raised humidity tomorrow will trigger our first proper flying ant day??

Indeed, UKV looks very good! I seem to be in a sweet spot currently, but we know it can all change in the next 48 hours. Currently the phone app, which is keen to pick up on rain risk, is showing a dry and warm 26-27C day for my area. Incidentally, some of the best storms I’ve seen in the UK have taken place when temperatures are in the 25-27C range, so hopefully that’s a promising sign

It’s extremely elevated - just looks like a swathe of asperatus cloud - surprising it was able to churn out lightning to be honest

Just had a rumble in N Kent - woohoo!!

Having a shindig with gym buddies in a hot tub - what an amazing night!!!!! Just brilliant - and still going

Undulatus here - mid levels still a little bit upset