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Everything posted by Harry

  1. Thunder dropped off big style, quite surprised. Still hearing some but not as close or as frequently.
  2. Continuous rumbles to my South - not convinced I’m going to get a direct hit. Not seen any flashes yet but to those under it I’m getting reports it’s phenomenal
  3. Thunder is very frequent but still distant. Hoping to get hit by the train of storms stretching E-W. So pleased I’m hearing some thunder, yaaaaaay!!!!
  4. Thunder in Maidstone/Sevenoaks apparently. Annoyingly they have a strong E-W motion now so won’t be coming this way lol
  5. I didn’t say cell, but rather the feature. There’s a line of heavy precipitation that developed rapidly over the past 20 mins or so. The broader feature however is anticipated on the AROME model at least to help generate storms across the SE before moving W and growing upscale (around 17:00 onwards)
  6. I believe that the feature developing over Calais now is what AROME was predicting could result in much more widespread storms later this afternoon and evening. That’s where I’d be looking and hoping that storms fire as it moves nearer the Uk.
  7. Think I just heard a distant rumble to my South (as I predicted earlier if that’s the case)
  8. Updated UKMO projection more in line with what you were talking about earlier - hope you’re both wrong
  9. The tentative nature of that cell near Tunbridge Wells doesn’t fill me with much optimism - would have hoped for an explosion of energy
  10. After a lull of freshness this morning, humidity here has ROCKETED in the past half hour so - crikey!!!
  11. AROME and UKMO storms could develop across Kent later this afternoon - MetO, Dan, Nick F, PJB (from UKWW) and Estofex and others have the SE in a warning area - let’s wait and see! All forecasts I’ve read make reference numerous possible triggers for storms, unlike previous days where it’s largely been one or two - patience my good fellow!
  12. Is it a CZ AROME is picking up or a trough? Only reason I ask is that whatever the feature is it seems to be connected to storms over the continent before triggering storms here. Also of note the storms that have my interest are for 17z onwards, not early afternoon. Interesting, my app now has 100% storm risk at 17z if you can believe it
  13. Where I’ll be on the north side AROME offers us a smidge of hope @Paul Sherman for this evening
  14. Also watch @Zak M’s video above - distinctly grey and murky there but with thunder and lightning.
  15. Models are little over the place, but Kent is possibly the least favoured area of the S and SE. It is not a right off though as UKMO (and presumably therefore UKV) and AROME break out thundery looking precipitation through the afternoon and evening. I’m not losing faith but fully expect storms to erupt (this time) to my SOUTH and trundle westwards. My hunch yesterday regarding looking up the rear passage of western storms proved right - I hope I’m wrong today however.
  16. The pedant in me suspects +IC nice vid @Zak M keep them coming!
  17. That’s my reading however the accompanying chart suggests more generous potential across our neck of the woods. UKMO projections funnily enough better align with PJB forecast...
  18. This is my view - you can see the tops of the Beds cells over to the right
  19. Would you mind sharing please, with any accompanying charts?
  20. Is that a trough visible on radar moving into Kent/Sussex currently which could become a focus for thunderstorm development?
  21. There’s a stream of much fresher air here at the moment, was very surprised when I stepped outside a short while ago.
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