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Harry

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Everything posted by Harry

  1. Well well well...wasn’t expecting to see more AcCas in the sky today...however, I do...am in Hempstead Valley at the moment not my usual location. Fingers crossed it suggests mid level instability is returning
  2. Ah fab well done @Another Kent clipper This is the storm that woke me up and it was gorgeous!! Had more storms later when I got to work - alas couldn’t watch and admire! Great past few hours - still humid out but mid levels looking much more stable.
  3. Still a lot of Ac and AcCas in the sky with an active looking storm approaching the Eastbourne area. While it’s a shade cooler courtesy of the earlier storms, it’s still notably humid with clear signs of mid level instability
  4. Off for another half hours sleep if I can. Interesting what the morning will bring as there’s these storms drifting north and more cells approaching the south coast.
  5. It’s a shame I woke up as a late as I did - could here the rumbling in my dreams and then eventually came too. That cell almost overhead but not a drop of rain - lots of frequent overhead IC bolts and flashes, a couple of what looked like obscured anvil crawlers and a few very bright and powerful CGs - few good peels of thunder. Lightning still going from that cell but not as frequent. Can see lightning from another cell hot in its heels - this one may come closer (and may bring some refreshing rain). Yay!!! I honestly wasn’t expecting these storms at all! EDIT - no sooner as I say that heavens have just opened - huge connective drops EDIT - this next cell pretty much overhead now
  6. OMG just woken by an amazing storm here - huge powerful looking CGs, lightning every 2-3 seconds. Extremely active too! I’m on the western edge
  7. Where you looking @Allseasons-si? There is lightning creeping down the Thames estuary and a surprising little clump of precip rapidly developing to my south
  8. There isn’t anything wrong with highlighting that at all @SkyDreamer but as predictions go Tuesday was fairly accurate model wise (compared to some plume events which were totally off beat). You’re absolutely right that these setups are very unpredictable and I agree 100% that anything can happen - but it isn’t unreasonable in my view when models/charts do not indicate anything for you, or so but nothing appears in that timeframe, to be despondent when that is what results. However, if models (generally) indicate activity developing at 11pm and they’re writing it off at 8pm... quite right, I too am For the record, I am FAR from an expert - I’ve just been following these things for probably 20 years or so now so have a nose for things but (like the experts and super computer models) am often surprised or wrong. Ive still not see any model offer up opportunities this late in my area so I’m off to get some shut eye... @Flash bang flash bang etc If I miss a storm or am woken by a clap of thunder, I owe you a drink
  9. That’s enough for me - off for shut eye. If I get woken, great. If not, least I’ve had a good nights sleep (if I get off at all!)
  10. I am quite surprised...I thought the MCS business would suppress activity nearby. No action this part of the world unfortunately (SE London/NW Kent). Modelled instability still around for a while yet so not totally out of luck...but nothing observed yet.
  11. I did not put words in your mouth, this is what you said... “Uh it's 21:30... Most storms on Tuesday night did not explode into life until after 11pm. Calling something a bust without any real evidence for it, is... well kinda off. To put it nicely.” You were criticising others (possibly myself as I at this time was citing pessimism) and comparing tonight to Tuesday after 11pm.p All models I’d seen (and most others no doubt) indicated storms developing broadly between 16z and 21z then moving north(ish). Tuesday night however suggested storm development right into the night - hence my comment that people’s despondency was probably based on the models/charts (as were mine) and shouldn’t rely on Tuesday night as a basis for optimism.
  12. Grrrr! What to do, new cell firing over E Kent now and a random strike near the S coast...what on earth is going on out there!
  13. Storm near Le Havre shifting NNE. I’m off to bed. Good luck all - let’s hope to be woken up by some surprise storms...very unlikely though it seems. Edit - still 27C! Sod that!
  14. Edited my post a minute later as there MAY be a new cell forming near Le Harvre - keeping an eye on it to see if it may amount to something
  15. Not optimistic Biggin Models keep instability around for the next few hours but there’s just no sign of anything with any interest developing. If something develops our way I’d be surprised - put it this way I’m not staying up waiting. Edit - just as I write that it seems as if a new cell is forming near Le Harvre and drifting NW...will keep and eye out for the next 45 mins or so then off to bed if nothing occurring
  16. Still 28C and not the slightest hint of refreshing precipitation
  17. I can seen it here @John90 Some towering Ac/AcCas in the fading sunlight
  18. The storms west of Paris are moving in a NW/NNW direction...would expect arrival until we’ll into early hours anyway but if something can fire ahead then happy days. Given the limited activity further west I’m not hopeful. We do however have a window (in the SE of about 2-3 hours before the high instability retreats NE).
  19. Comparing tonight with Tuesday is (forgive me for being so blunt) ridiculous. It is a totally different synoptic setup so to say that storms kicked off after 11pm Tuesday therefore it should happen tonight is bizarre. Models suggested storms erupting after 11pm and they indeed. I’m struggling to find one which suggests the same tonight (apart from the latest MetO projection which isn’t the most reliable). Despite the above, I’m sat here in high heat and humidity praying that something will kick off...but I’m certainly not basing it on the fact Tuesday night did.
  20. Just saw two new strikes appear SW of Birmingham...awaiting verification. Perhaps nocturnal cooling will come into play and realise the remnants of this plume!
  21. I certainly won’t be staying up past my normal bed time tonight - evidence strongly suggests the ongoing cluster of storms is the key zone of activity - the hope or expectation more will fire to the west in my view is folly given the models. I’m sat under perpetual anvil and mamma crud. That’s not to say it’s not extremely warm still - 28C apparently (outside).
  22. A strike west of Le Harvre too - definitely ignore the SW London one as that’s been on that chart for ages!
  23. If it turns electric, I’ll start to get excited - as it is, I’m not getting my hopes up. If anything I genuinely believe it’s game, set and match west or south west of the current stormage. I have not seen a single model break out storms after this initial batch. Notwithstanding that it’s still incredibly warm!
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