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Harry

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Everything posted by Harry

  1. Looking very stable in the Medway at the moment but I am seeing a mackerel sky beginning to emerge from the south which is often a good sign
  2. Am I the only one finding it amusingly ironic the thread is now consumed with debates about storm stories?
  3. Not great - but with these kinds of events they can be very unpredictable and storms can literally pop up anywhere
  4. Pretty much every model that I can see is beginning to agree the far SE is not looking good. North and North West however looking very good. They’ve also being reducing CAPE for us too…
  5. Wow this was 2015???? Remember it well! I could see the top of the Bournemouth cell lighting up like a Belisha Beacon before we then got clobbered - repeat of that would be nice
  6. Well if anyone is in doubt about the instability of the atmosphere between now and tomorrow night, that should settle it for you. Doesn’t even look impressive on radar
  7. Sun out now, heat building and some first signs of instability beginning to develop in the mid-levels. Incidentally I’m going to be in Medway (C/N Kent) this evening and tomorrow so hopefully will be in a good location if any storms do fire
  8. We had a morning storm last year that formed (if memory serves) around 4 - 5am over south Kent/Sussex and it was genuinely the most electrified storm I’ve ever seen in the UK. There were vivid lightning flashes every 1 - 3 seconds at its peak. The main frustration was it kicked off out of the blue so was woken by the thunder then had to get ready to go to work during its peak. Standing at the bus stop with constant thunder rolling around was great fun
  9. I was going to use a far stronger word, but let’s keep it dignified and use your’s
  10. Wow!!! You must of been buzzing - incredible photos. And yes it was July 2017, got the screen grabs on my phone. Was an awesome night
  11. I think there's a great many reasons for optimism to be honest. Current modelling shows some very moist, humid and unstable air wafting up from the south through Saturday night and more especially through Sunday. Pressure will be falling as a secondary low forms somewhere between the Iberian peninsula and the Bay of Biscay and sweeps up from the south through Sunday evening, bring with it (based on the FAX chart) a number of troughs, as less moist air tries to punch in from the SW. There is the potential for more than one round of thunderstorms and downpours, as a number of models are suggesting at the moment. I'm seeing signals that there could be thunderstorms/downpours on the leading edge of the humid surge, as it crosses into southern England through the early hours of Sunday, then again later as the drier air begins to sweep the humid air away into the N Sea later in the afternoon and evening. As we all should know by now, these are incredibly difficult events to forecast as sometimes the air is so unstable, a cow parping at an awkward angle on the edge of the North Downs could cause storms to initiate. Similarly and by far the worst case scenario, is the models have been wrongly modelling the Low (and more especially the development of the secondary low) and it tracks further east than anticipated. As it currently stands, this is in my opinion by far Kent/Sussex's best chance for storms this year, with the potential for further heavy and thundery downpours into early next week.
  12. I’m hoping this weekend will be similar to the exact same weekend last year, when a glancing blow from some instability generated a huge swathe of cracking storms. There’s quite a bit of similarity between this year and last so my optimism levels are holding
  13. West is showing some outbreaks too. But there’s a fair bit of interchangeability between models at the moment so I wouldn’t be cancelling/making specific plans just yet is all I can say at the moment. Some much more learned than I I’m sure will provide updates nearer the time
  14. WRF-NMM on board too for something decent on Sunday
  15. UKMO HD 12z run for Sunday afternoon/evening - interesting Then again early hours on Tuesday morning for the SE
  16. WRF-NMM (my fave model for looking at CAPE) 00z is an improvement to my eyes and brings the potential for thundery outbreaks from a renewed plume across the SW, possibly S Wales, C/S and SE England on Sunday.
  17. I always focus on the MUCAPE and not SBCAPE when looking at general patterns. My biggest concern is at present we’re looking at a glancing blow and minor modifications could keep instability away. A big HOWEVER is that some of the best storms I’ve seen have been from glancing blows from instability…big concern remains the steering winds which on current modelling looks likely to be quite easterly…that said, may not be bad for you being located that bit further east keeping an eye on the model runs and hoping for a more concrete pattern
  18. Not overly excited at the moment for the SE over the weekend - far too early and at best a little uncertain. It looks likely we’ll get a jump in humidity and WRF is showing a jump in CAPE at times. But, given the position of the low, it looks likely any big storms that develop over France will sweep more east than north over towards Benelux. The SW and some more general southern regions may get some storms (CAPE generally seems better towards the SW) - but the best juice and instability looks AT THIS STAGE to stay on the continent. Lots of time for change and I’m looking forward to the weekend - but keeping any excitement well contained based on what I’m seeing
  19. Seen a few flashes from those London cells. Better than nothing
  20. To say I’m frustrated at not having been able to witness any of these storms around the office/home would be an understatement. Black skies right close by but I can’t get a view as on a train
  21. Had to head back into the office, having only got to observe one rumble. Of all the days and times to have be in the office, gutted is an understatement. Dark over London at the moment with heavy rain just starting as I've come back in. Atmosphere feels like it really wants to go, but not quite happening just yet. I think if this had been 3-4 o'clock it'd have been a more exciting story. Edit - the size of the raindrops are insane! Imagine heavy snow but falling like stair rods...can't remember the last time I saw rain like it!
  22. Thankfully it’s lunch time so have come outside and found a quiet ish courtyard. Very humid with the sky greying over but haven’t heard or seen anything yet despite blitzortung suggesting very nearby strikes. Think I’m destined to go storm free this year Edit - get in - first rumble of the year for me!!!
  23. Know the pain @snow raven - me too. This is my view of the cells approaching from the SE
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