Harry

The stuff erupting near IOW is now electrified and I have this pile of beauties to my west currently (you can just make out the A380 turning towards Heathrow in front of it). I have a HIIT class between 09:00 and 10:00 and really struggling whether to go, or wait out to see if there are any storms…what to do!!?!?!?!?!?

Wouldn’t be so sure Azazel. I’m expecting to see some agitation in the skies as the sun goes down…that’d be the usual form in situations like this. Doesn’t feel particularly humid yet either - dew point to 13C currently. Am expecting that to creep up over the coming hours

UKV 15z is a big upgrade to my eye, particularly for my area Hope it’s on to something

Not surprised - baking hot today. Think we peaked at 29C here. Extremely capped atmosphere currently with no a fleck of cloud to be seen. Expecting some Ac to start developing later ahead of hopefully some action tomorrow morning

Met Office have issued thunderstorm warnings today for NI and then tomorrow from London northwards

Where do you access those charts @Eagle Eye?

I think Dan has been unable to post forecasts this past week. It doesn’t mean there isn’t a risk. UKV still going strong for storms to move in through the morning across southern parts, eventually weakening as they move north (ie my area). Further storms then look likely to develop from EA northwards (of course) with the SE under yet another well capped sod all scenario

Went storm chasing in 2010 with the Netweather team and it blew my mind. A marginal risk storm there blew anything I’d seen here out of the water, let alone the High risk day we had in Arkansas/Tennessee which was another level. Speaking of startling thunder, last year there was a somewhat impressive cold air May storm while I was working at home. Had the window open to ‘enjoy’ it while I was on a Teams meeting with colleagues. This sudden IC roll of thunder made me jump out of my skin and yell something broadly equating to ‘penetrate me’ while a colleague was talking. Fun times

Like reading a biography of me - totally the same. My fascination flipped after a massive overnight storm in August 1998 (I think possibly the 1st) which TERRIFIED me - extremely close frequent CGs, ear splitting thunder - I remember seeing a fat vivid white CG between the rooftop of my neighbour’s house and the top of my bedroom window and the thunder was an absolute explosion. My Dad encouraged me to get up and watch the storm out of the window but I was too frightened. It was all over the news the next day and the videos were incredible. That’s the exact time I remember feeling like I missed out and have been a storm loon ever since. As for this weekend - I’m feeling a little bit optimistic as I think it’s going to turn incredibly humid and unstable and while the models aren’t churning out anything concrete, they certainly didn’t a few weeks ago and we had that blitz of storms across the SE during the morning and modelled CAPE was meagre at best. Hopeful something similar could happen this time too.

Definitely feeling like that this year @LightningLover

I do remember it I think - started here as popcorn storms - I remember standing in the garden with the odd massive drop of rain and lightning emanating from rapidly growing AcCas. It then grew massively upscale as it drifted north. As to the weekend it’s still looking very warm and very humid from what I can see. Looking easily to be the warmest night of the year Friday into Saturday, with overnight lows staying around 19-20C for some.

Only observation I would make is that sometimes (often in my experience) the best storms come from transient plumes, ie those that stick around for 1-2 days or less. You don’t want hot sticky air all the way up the atmosphere or else atmospheric profiles become too warm and moist and clouds struggle to get height. Hot sticky air at low levels with some coolness aloft or at least close by and boom!!

Are you referring in general terms @Sprites or what you’re seeing in the medium range modelling for this month?

New strikes over N France

It doesn’t surprise me to be honest (albeit clearly wrong lol). The skies around here have a convective look and we have had some very small convective style showers today. Also isn’t bad to hit circa 25C with leaden skies all day (until the past couple of hours).

I hate animal cruelty but I might have been inclined to silence that dog that kept barking in the first couple of mins

WRF-NMM 5KM has increased the MUCAPE that will be travelling west to east across parts of central and southern England later tonight and breaks out some convective rain. Estofex also has a 15% lightning risk coinciding with the passage of the front. Still thinking there’s a small chance of surprise lightning for some.

UKV seems to have suddenly wiped out much of the rain potential early tomorrow, now showing a much narrower band of mostly moderate, showery outbreaks

I’ve been seeing that on a few models. While it’ll largely be frontal in nature I really wouldn’t be surprised to see a few flashes of lightning.

I’m keeping an eye on the early hours of Thursday morning as some models are currently indicating some heavy rain to rapidly develop with some small amounts of instability.

My weather app is still taking acid. I have seen some signs of very shallow convection trying to build but cannot for the life of me see it going

At the moment it’s looking like a dry and hot sort of weekend for the south. Definitely some potential (again) for areas further north however. My weather app however has been flirting on and off with the potential for storms across the south on Sunday, so not a complete right off just yet.

I think my weather app has experienced a summer solstice trip out this is for Saturday

Have seen a couple of flashes that don’t seem to have been detected