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Harry last won the day on June 2 2017

Harry had the most liked content!

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About Harry

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    Bexley (home), C London (work)
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    Weather (specifically thunderstorms), golf, squash and football...quite into astronomy and swimming also. Went on my first US storm chase in late April/early May 2010 - had an amazing time!! :D
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  1. Early Estofex forecast for Thursday 06z to Friday 06z. They have not yet issued a forecast for tomorrow night however.
  2. WRF NMM 5KM in agreement with that trend. Some MUCAPE across the far SE for a brief time, but it has definitely scaled back CAPE and convective precipitation. Not a positive trend.
  3. “Very far SE” reference is a bit depressing but the lightning wizard suggests (on its current run) I might still get some action 🤞 Here is for a westward nudge so that many more can benefit too!
  4. This is the latest Euro4. I’ve uploaded the panel view so you can see the projected evolution.
  5. Precipitation modelling looks good but I’m not seeing huge amounts of instability - some, but not much. This will be critical for sparks, so I’m hoping the models show a little more of this over the next 24 hours (as well as keeping the track broadly consistent).
  6. WWW.METEOCIEL.FR Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine de WRF-NMM 0.05x0.05° (5km) sur 5 zones (France, Nord-Ouest, Nord-Est, Sud-Ouest, Sud-Est) et l'Italie, Royaume-Uni, Espagne et... The 00z run looks a lot better than the 06z!
  7. Agreed - when the PWAT levels were shown it did concern me a little that we could get torrential convective rain but little in the way of lightning activity - I’ve seen that many times in the past.
  8. WRF NMM 5KM coming into range and shows circa 1000 J/Kg coming into the SE quadrant early hours of Thursday. While it chops and changes between runs, I find this model at this range to be one of the best indicators for storm risk, particularly within 24 hours of an event. Lets keep our fingers crossed for something.
  9. MCS from 1994. I remember I was in primary school and the storms rolled in while I was in swimming club. When I left it was incredibly humid, lightning had started and rain tumbling. For the next few hours it got worse, frequent thunder and lightning and torrential rain. This is the view from Essex of this great storm.
  10. App showing 40% storm risk for Wednesday now with temps of 28C 🤞
  11. No real plumes this year so far and none even in fantasy land. My La Niña theory is so far holding firm 😢
  12. Sitting under a lot of cloud now with a few spots. Most of the day has been bright and very warm/muggy. Models were indicating a peak in activity later today and for the first part of the night so still early days.
  13. It is rather humid feeling here this morning 😅 I suspect should any showers form in this environment they’ll be quite torrential, even if there are questions over the extent of any lightning.
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