Gordon
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Posts posted by Gordon
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I see the Met office have redefined their warnings and it's mainly the SE quadrant of the country which is now due any rain of note so I may not see much rain at all as my location is the West midlands is no longer covered by warnings
oh well my Grass will have to be brown just a little while longer
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Looks like the week will start off dry and quite sunny for most tomorrow, with a weak ridge of high pressure over the country, just a few isolated showers. However, the current outputs suggest that a band of rain will spread from the south/south-west on Monday night, giving most of England and southern Scotland a rather dull wet day on Tuesday.. The system will have a lot of thundery activity associated with its southern flank over the Continent but current outputs suggest that the thundery activity will stay on the other side of the Channel- ECM perhaps takes it closer to our shores than GFS.
The latter part of the week will see a slow moving Atlantic low move towards the UK which will bring a band of showery rain eastwards on Wednesday followed by sun and showers on Thursday/Friday. Friday currently looks like it may be an exciting day for fans of intense convective activity, though as is often the case with showery returning polar maritime airmasses, the emphasis will most likely centre on weak thunderstorms mixed with heavy showers, rather than any intense thundery activity.
Talking of high pressure, the NOAA's long-range outlooks don't seem as convincing re. high pressure as the current GFS and ECMWF outputs, and they have lowest pressure centred to the west of the British Isles. The MJO looks like swinging through phases 4-5-6, all of this suggests to me that we may see a temporary area or ridge of high pressure move over towards the end of August, followed by a changeable warm southerly type into early September, and then the low may shift east towards the second week of September, eventually resulting in cooler quieter conditions. Of course, signals that extend out as far as September are subject to considerable uncertainty.
this has cheered me up somewhat as we need the rain but I hate the thunder so current outputs make it a win win for me
let's hope it stays that way
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Thanks Gibby
Another Concise update as usual
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Latest GFS is predicting 26c in SE England on Sunday
I suppose that's possible but IMO it'll be only a SE event only and then there's the possibility of heavy rain in the SE later on
not a nice combination Warm , Humid and Wet
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I suspect they'll be a few more twists and turns before Sunday so we'll have to wait and see
although the thundery aspect does not please me but like has been said above , a fine line between that and something completely different occuring
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Good morning.
GFS this morning shows the current very warm and humid air over the UK being displaced over the next 48hrs by a cooler westerly flow from off the Atlantic. With pressure Low in the vicinity of the British isles will occur on most days with winds turning NW or North by early next week with cool conditions in exposure. In the lower resolution part of the run this morning High pressure remains focused in Mid Atlantic with a slack airflow becoming established again over the UK with more heavy sometimes slow moving showers each day with normal temperatures generally.
UKMO also shows the displacement of very warm and humid air in 48hrs or so to light westerly winds and increasingly showery conditions as we move towards the weekend. Innitially showers will be well scattered apart from the chance of some thundery ones late tomorrow and early Thursday in the SE as the cooler air interacts with the very warm and humid air over the SE. By the weekend showers will be widespread and heavy at times but with some warm sunny spells inbetween.
ECM looks a little better in the longer term with the same showery picture taking us into early next week with quite a potent Low shown near the Baltic early next week bringing cool and showery NW winds to us for a while before a strong rise of pressure from the south brings us into a NW/SE split to end the run with SW and rain at times for the North and far west while the south and east become drier and more settled with a recovery in temperature too.
In Summary the breakdown to cooler, fresher weather looks fairly uneventful for most in the coming two days with some dry, very warm and humid conditions being steadily replaced to cooler, fresher conditions behind a weak cold front crossing east late tomorrow. The far SE may see something thundery from it tomorrow night though. Afterwards all models show a showery spell though as always some places will miss them and stay dry. In the long term GFS keeps things showery and slack through FI while ECM still wants to build pressure close to the south in a week or so with warmer, more humid conditions but still with some rain in the NW while areas further South and East see the best of dry, bright conditions away from Western coasts and hills.
thanks for another nice summary today and as for the breakdown to cooler conditions uneventful are my favorite kind
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How does the first 15 days look poor, this week is first week of August and it looks beautiful, with some nice hot weather and good thunderstorm potential!
it only looks beautiful and a good week if you like hot weather and thunderstorms and I don't like either so it is not a good week weatherwise for me
I suppose it's all a matter of perspective
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Well it was fairly cloudy yesterday in my part of the midlands with some sunny spells but not a lot and it is cloudy again here this morning with the forecast to be for fairly cloudy skies so not wall to wall sunshine here
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GFS Now showing a deep area of LP west of Ireland from Monday this slowly move towards the UK and eases if it did make it to us though is would be quite nasty for the time of year, hopefully it will stay away
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1501.png
Next week see's things settle down with temps around the high teens to low 20's in the south.
By late FI more Low Pressure moves close to the UK extending from Greenland
Possible Low pressure extending from Greenland
now that's Irony in it's finest form
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well for all those north of the border
if the weather isn't up to much just console yourselves that in 15 days time it's the start of the new footie season
doesn't the time just seem to fly by
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GFS 6z paints an average British summer out to day 16, with more of the same, changeable with any warmer slots reserved for the South. Staying very changable more so the further north you are. MetO have updated their 16-30 dayer beyond that our to 3rd August. It maintains the unsettled theme and suggests at below average temps and below average sunshine for the period, but makes no mention of above average days. Which could transpire into long cloudy spells dominated by coolish northwesterly winds. Cool clear nights leading to nice sunny mornings. Cumulus quickly building mid morning, but capped so that it flattens out into cloudy skies lasting until sunset, melting away as the sunsets with cool nights to follow. So by no means a washout. No sign of warm, humid thundery weather on the horizon, on any of the current output runs.
It does beg the question have we seen the last 30oC for the summer, two weekends ago ?
A valid question I think as it seems for the last 2 or 3 summers July really hasn't been up to much and this year at the moment is looking like no exception
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it seems like a continuation of the Status Quo it seems
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I'm twitchy just watching these videos
glad I was nowhere near them
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o well done on missing them,, im glad mine done and over with and i can sleep tonight now
I wonder if we'd be the only ones if we started a ' We Don' t want storm thread ' ?
more than likely but if we created a few hundred other identities I'm sure we could match the we want a storm thread
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Hello all,, came out of hibernation now
Had 3 storms but with only half hour gap between them all
Rain total 18mm so far and temp dropped from 26c at 12.30 pm to a lovely refreshing 18 at present
hopefully thats my only storms for the year
glad to see your alright I thankfully missed the storms and I echo your sentiments of not seeing any more storms for a little while
A couple decades should do
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DAMN YOU STORM SHIELD, DAMN YOU
:wallbash: Hi Victor
I bet you DON'T BELIEVE IT
sorry couldn't resist that
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About 20 minutes ago had a crack of lightning and thunder right over us… naffed the internet and the lightning actually tickled my nose — dog's not too happy about it… panting and won't even eat his dinner.
I'm surprised your nose tickling affected your dog
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well this is the first really worry day of 2011 for me and I hope I miss the worst of the weather
I do expect some rain and possibly some thunder but hopefully not too much and it should mostly be over for me by 10 pm which means I have only 10 hours left to get through
seems this not a popular topic anymore as I am replying to my last post from September of last year
let's hope it's a while before I reply again
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Well think GFS was wrong ... As storms are allready breaking out across the SW and GFS has them in the Channel, Cloud may ruin some peoples hottest day of the year looking at Sat pics. For the outlook period , I would agree Sunshine , light Showers and Warm but not as Hot as the last 2 days. After that we will have to see but I wouldn't rule out later July turning into a bit of a washout . Although if GP's teleconnections play ball then you never know what may happen.
yep the met office did forecast to cloud over as the day progresses and this seems to be happening , just thankful I'm not in the E/SE as the worst of the weather is forecast there later
I know I'm drifting off topic again
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Yes real scorcher in deed , little puzzled why GFS seems to have dropped support for the England / SE thunderstorms though . All the other weather sources are going for it as well as the news . Although I must say I expected a storm breaking out in the SE last night and nothing did. Guess we will have to wait and see.
well selfishly speaking and slightly off topic but I for one pray we don't get any , it can rain all it likes just take the thunder and lightning somewhere else
seems that after today it's going to similar to what we had recently with the emphasis on less in the way of showers for some areas and temps at a respectable level
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Phew.... Scorchio day today. No real sleep last night and woke up with bloody bites on me. Anyway a fresher approach on the way and dry ,but before we get there we have just got a lovely piece of convectivity to enjoy, late afternoon and on through the night. Still all to play for though through july and august.
Enjoy your day all DONT get burned.
Yep fresher weather should be with me within 12-18 hours just some showers to get through this afternoon and clearing this evening
As the met office latest forecast indicates fine and hot/very hot weather weather in Eastern England , cooler cloudier with occasional rain in the north west and as for the rest of the country warm but becoming cloudier with some showers this afternoon these possibly becoming heavy and then thundery showers spreading into SE England this evening and possibly becoming frequent through the night but dry for me by then and somewhat cooler
which is a relief as this is just a little too hot for me
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see the met office has issued warnings for the E/SE portion of the country for Monday evening onwards for heavy for showers/thunderstorms merging to longer spells of rain and lasting into Tuesday
Thankfully I'm a little further west so will hopefully miss out
of course probably change nearer the time
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BBC Breakfast forecast having temps of 31/32 possible in the SE on Monday which could trigger a few thundery showers later in the day
of course even this far out that's not certain
seems away from the SE though tomorrow's the day with the heat dribbling away elsewhere on Monday
and for Scotland and NI well good luck getting it at all
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one consolation it's looking dry for my Birthday tomorrow but after that the hot weather will be certainly still be in the SE on Monday while disappearing from elsewhere
oh the joys of British weather
:wallbash: 
Model Output Discussion - 15th April Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
by Early April , I assume you mean early May otherwise you have taken Long Range Forecasting to a whole new level