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Everything posted by StormChaseUK

  1. i would say elevated lightning shows for South Coast, Somerset midnight onwards. Heavy rain Sat morning for elsewhere. Unless it's going to be 1990s standards huge MCS
  2. I bet the weather turns around, on 28th September... lol
  3. Yes I suspect the nocturnal cooling is now coming into play. Expect to hear a few reports of "I just saw a flicker of lightning" in Midlands, southern England shortly.
  4. Very warm humid evening out there now in Herefordshire, Gloucester, down to Somerset area. feels ripe for elevated later in the night
  5. Starting to see some nice clumps of cloud behind that blob in the south east, southern flank of that blob being most active.
  6. Yes Poole I would expect to see the first of the flashes in night time darkness, Salisbury by about 1am my estimation
  7. For overnight storms you need a rash on radar not a whopping great clump of thundery rain/cloud pancake. If you look west of Guernsey it has more of a thundery shower appearance on the radar.
  8. The west could see elevated storms later in the night I reckon, even up to Midlands. The SE TS at the moment are channel homegrowns popping off.
  9. Looks a bit "thundery rain" type on current radar - activity is still south of it.
  10. Looks like Quimper in France is the first point to fire off (Brest)
  11. I was going to then realised it's subscription only so admin might not want those shared. I guess ask if admin? can share 1 or 2 grabs?
  12. Yes the UKV is factoring a few homegrowns in the heat and the elevated. First few storms maybe 7pm south east with more elevated overnight. Something takes a huge chunk out the temps around 7pm in SE hmmm wonder if that's an expected early import or homegrown rain shower dropping temps
  13. I have seen situations like this over the last 20 years and they never plan out to how models predict. (like asking which corn in the pan will popcorn and exactly when) It could form over Bristol and hit Midlands missing SE, it could form over Belgium and miss UK completely. no one knows.
  14. Good point MCS can sometimes form/get caught up in the frontal system. (don't think that will happen today though) depends how much heat is drawn up in front of it.
  15. Yes the West get homegrown decent storms, the SE usually get the imports. (Elevated) Although sometimes the SW, Bath, Bristol, East Wales has a good knack of developing Elevated lightning shows.
  16. Brighton is always a good spot. Like snow though, no one will know the exact location or time.
  17. Ouch that's the dreaded "thundery rain/claggy greyness"
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