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STEVE M

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  • Location
    Warrington, Cheshire
  • Interests
    Computers, the weather, playing on the Playstation 2, watching TV and drinking at weekends.<br />

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  1. Yes, it's amazing just how much a summer can change from one extreme to another so quickly isn't it. As other's have mentioned in this thread (or the Model Discussion thread I can't remember), this summer probably started to early with the first heatwave starting as early as early May this summer. All in all though, we have still had an exceptional summer this year, particularly for the record breaking hot July. Just a pity August hasn't been as good nor as hot as it usually is or has been in recent year's.
  2. I'm going for an August CET of 17.2C. I don't think it will be as hot as July this month, but essentially with HP never too far away, it will be far from cool either. I suspect temps will be above average for most, if not all of this month. But the potential for any heatwaves are diminishing all the time. Still plenty of time for heatwaves to develop, but with the Atlantic showing signs of cooling down, the chances are looking pretty remote atm.
  3. Very true, it could go either way this summer. The seasonal forecasts from the Met Office do suggest a warmer than average summer. A blazing summer, even though unlikely, would be lovely but would cause havoc for the drought situation in the southeast. I dread to think what would happen.
  4. Yes last summer was very annoying. The start of the summer, mainly in June, did have some of the trademarks of being a great summer as well, but it turned out to be something of a disapointment in the end with close to average temps and rainfall in July and August, not the summer that I had hoped for myself. But this summer does sound much more like a classic summer in terms of timing. It sounds as though, looking at Steve's forecast, we will be getting the best of our summer weather in the peak summer period being July and August, which is ideal for sun lovers and for those who love a good thunderstorm or two, lol. Hardly a re-run of 1976 or 1995 perhaps, but this summer could be the most impressive summer in recent years if Steve's forecast comes off, which I think will.
  5. Yes a very imformative read, thanks Steve. That chart for June 1991 looks quite similiar to some of today's charts by comparison. But here's hoping we see an improvement later on in the summer in July and August. Something tells me we are going to have an unsettled June this year, it's just the way the charts are looking at the moment, I don't see much of an improvement in the near future including early June at least. Things may improve through June, but I just can't see any drastic improvement all that quickly, not at least until mid-June. Although I hope I'm wrong. But anyway, good luck with the forecast Steve :lol:
  6. Yes I forgot about the summer of 1983. Was this the summer which had the scorching July? The summer's of 1996 (as I vaguelly remember it, lol) and 2005 were hot but very wet at times, particularly in 1996. In terms of being very dry and hot, the summer's of 1983, 1995 and 2003 I suspect would come out on top in comparison to 1976. Wasn't the summer of 1995 quite mixed to start with? June 1995 I recall started off quite chilly and unsettled with low pressure. When did the heatwave in 1995 actually start?
  7. I think this summer could potentially be a hot one looking at the models at the moment. It would take an awful lot though for not just this summer, but any summer, to equal the record of 1976. The way I see it, sooner or later a summer like '76 is likely to happen again at some point and some of our recent summer's, 1995, 1996, 2003, 2005, have come quite close, 2003 being the most exceptional of all the above mentioned summer's for it's recording breaking heat in August that year! This summer does have a certain 1995 feel about it at the moment and it will be interesting to see what June has to offer. But I also feel this summer could still go either way and nothing is set in stone pattern wise just yet. We need to see that azores high having more of an influence in June to convince me of a scorching summer this year. So far this year, certainly throughout spring so far, the azores high has been perhaps more reluctant than usual to make an appearance. To summerise, at the moment I would say this summer is more likely to go down the route of the summer of '95, meaning we will get one hot and dry month, most likely to be in July or August. I just don't see a re-run of '76 this summer for some reason just yet. I hope I'm wrong though.
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