Noctilucid
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Posts posted by Noctilucid
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Evening all...
Very heavy thundery downpours across the London Borough of Havering within the last hour, roads were getting over a foot deep in water in places I would estimate. Made for some quite interesting driving conditions combined with torrential rain and awful visibility. I'd definitely say these conditions warranted a weather risk warning.
Can also confirm I saw at least two flashes of lightning while in Romford, and we've just had another distant growl of thunder as I type this with heavy rain continuing although not on the torrential scale of earlier. Saw some very turbulent cloud structures to the East for a time earlier as well, no doubt associated with downdrafts out of the storm system into the clear air to the East.
EDIT: Another fairly close bolt of lightning as I submit this too.
17:01 ...and another bolt within a mile.
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Went out for a bit of a walk around to watch 2 or 3 new storms rapidly build into the line over EA and head off North, currently there's a gorgeous storm with well developed anvil off to the North East, oh if I had a car so i could get to the hill tops.
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Indeed it is Harry! Fully fledged storm now over Chelmsford according to my eyes and radar, its starting to push out an impressively thick anvil. There's further explosive development to its South which no doubt will become a storm within the next 10 minutes, looks like the convergence zone driving these storms may extend into Southern Essex and maybe down to the Thames. I'd be up the A12 in a shot for want of a car.
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Evening all
Got some lovely developing updrafts to the North East, must be around Chelmsford way. Really quite strong with pileus too. They're pulsing but never quite getting around to pushing out an anvil, at least not yet. Clear as a bell from the East through South around to the West however. You can see quite clearly where the edge of the instability lies.
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Afternoon!
Heavy convective development around Romford, most notably from the East around the the North, some cloud bases are getting very dark.
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Afternoon all
Impressive high based downpour early this morning, currently there is towering cumulus rather getting its act together to my North East, most likely around the Brentwood/Chelmsford area.
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Afternoon all
Weak thunderstorm passing just North of Romford with two rumbles heard so far, had a couple of quite lively storms yesterday including a very nasty line with a very dark and turbulent gust front and fairly frequent lightning which chased me home.
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Thunder has become almost constant again and is getting nearer.
The point i am trying to get across is that the forecast has been wrong on many occasions. I am entitled to have a moan about it when it has been hyped up so much.
This is the first time I have seen forecasters wrong footed on this scale in several years, perhaps if you understood the difficulties of storm forecasting and how a minor adjustment to the atmosphere can create a bust you wouldn't be so quick to critisice. Unfortunately because this forum is now so full of precious and uneducated ranting, the useful and educational posts quickly dissapear well down the page list before many get to read them.
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Lightning getting pretty frequent to the South now, at least twice a minute.
On a side note, its about time certain forum members grew up, I hardly remember that kind of behavior when I joined here, but now its rife.
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That storm rapidly intensified in the last 10-15 minutes, counted about 10 Cg Strikes and 2 were Gunshot Thunder which I filmed in full HD. Just have to learn how to import it onto the Pluter and Will put it up.
I would class that as quite a decent little storm for the Uk!
I can imagine, it had a very impressive top on it with a large anvil.
Convection has filled the clear air to my south really fast and its now going dark with further rumbles in that direction.
Fully blown storm has appeared in under half an hour. -
The clearing has revealed the back end of the Southend storm, mighty impressive, for a good 5 minutes there was continuous rumbling eminating from the Estuary area.
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There is rapid updraft growth in the clear area behind the Chatham storm, towers really shooting up to my South. 'Ground strokes' of the non-tennis variety occuring to my East.
EDIT: Storm to my East is now rumbling continously without any breaks!
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Storm number 3 really powering up to the South, almost constant deep rumbling.
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Storm number 2 in Romford, extremely torrential rain and occasional deep rolls of thunder.
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Aggressive booming to the South, lots of scud about racing South Eastwards but its broken up slightly so I can see the approaching storm base. Altogether very soupy and unphotogenic but certainly powerful. Sounds like somethings trying to get out of the stairs cupboard.
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Moderate rain with huge drops in Romford and now thunder, the line appears to have weakened somewhat for now but stronger areas are developing down South. The activity appears to be elevated above a lower cloud layer making the sky seem very harmless and the storm appearing very quickly out of the South West with little warning.
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Getting very dark and gusty in Romford, very low cloud racing North Eastward and the swallows are having a field day, heavy duty storms firing in all directions!
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Afternoon
Suprisingly benign skies here considering the explosions of activity within 10-20m both West and now East. Considering walking to town without an umbrella which will no doubt trigger the rapid development of a High Precipitation Supercell directly over East London.
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Rain Just starting to fall here in Romford, start of something?
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Lets wait until the cold front has left Lowerstoft Ness before we draw any firm conclusions.
One conclusion I can draw is how unnervingly accurate the GFS storm risk % charts are, for several runs now they have been going against what all the other indicators suggested, with storm outbreaks being portrayed as not being quite as widespread as expected during this afternoon and evening given the potential instability and expected availability of triggers. I can't remember the last time I had a storm when the charts weren't indicating at least 70% for my general area.
No doubt there will be some kind of backlash against various forcasters and forecasting bodies both on this forum and elsewhere, but the people who act in such a way clearly don't understand the difficulties of weather forecasting and how easily tiny adjustments in atmospheric conditions can make a difference between a complete bust and a memorable storm outbreak even at just a few hours range.
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Evening all
Now that skies have cleared I can see that the high level outflow from the French storms is immense and arches over from the distant South East, a good indication of the updraft strength and the wind shear in place at high level.
Overhead and mainly to the immediate East AcCas is beggining to boil slightly, the first real signs of any instability I've seen today bar some light rain from dying upper level showers earlier this afternoon. This evening definately has the feel of one that kicks off at nightfall.
I find it ironic that after all the petty complaining by some, the thundery weather has so far been confined to Western and Northern areas...
Some stunning pictures over on Infoclimat.fr's gallery as per usual, gives you a good idea of the kind of instability has been released, must be spoiling a few Barbeques around Picardy this evening.
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Morning
Treated to a very active storm just West of Romford yesterday evening, saw it go from a large cumulus to a powerful updraft while moving no more than a few miles. There were frequent powerful cloud to ground strikes, some of which were a bit too close for my liking. The updraft base also developed some interesting striations for a while.
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Morning
Realistically its going to be eyes westward again today for those of us in the South East, however for those of you living in the London/S Essex area, I will be out in an open park without an umbrella later, so you can expect torrential downpours and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
As for continental imports, important to note that storms are not necessarily steered by the low level winds predicted by the models, they are more influenced by mid level winds which may not be the same.
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Front seems to have stirred up something North of London, gone very dark to my WNW, the front is very well defined by a quite angry and turbulent looking cloud base.
EDIT: And its passage is accompanied by torrential rain and strong winds, wasn't expecting that!
Convective weather - 2nd-3rd November 2011
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Noctilucid
Quite a bit of distant thunder coming from that direction.
I think some people need to be reminded that weather forecasts are not written personally for them or the air directly above their house.